USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction The Case of Honduras EVALUATION BRIEF NUMBER 5 Summary Honduras, one of the poorest countries in Latin America, has been focusing on strate￾gies to reconstruct and transform its econ￾omy after the devastating impact of Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In 2001, the government completed a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in response to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s heavily indebted poor country (HIPC) initiative. USAID Honduras has operated a program of about $31 million annually, excluding an emergency supplement of $293 million provided by Congress after Hurricane Mitch. The mission’s program emphasized, in order of funding impor￾tance, health and education, economic growth and natural resource management, decentralization and municipal government, and democratic governance. Annually, over half of the regular assistance monies in the portfolio are allocated to the delivery of health and education services to poor people. Two-thirds of the Hurricane Mitch reconstruction program was allocated to the improvement of key physical infrastructure. This assessment examines the USAID Honduras portfolio through the lens of the Evaluation Studies Division’s conceptual framework for comparing USAID’s sustainable development approach with the poverty reduction paradigm evolving in the World Bank, IMF, and other development aid agencies. However, poverty reduction is not USAID’s overar￾ching goal. This assessment asks whether USAID is nevertheless engaged in poverty reduction program￾ming, and whether it has modified its assistance strategy to be consistent with the PRSP approach. It also asks whether USAID Honduras has supported the PRSP process, and whether the mission can enhance the poverty reduction impact of its portfo￾lio. The assessment finds that in most respects ■ A high level of donor coordination is important to poverty reduction efforts. It can promote structural change, facilitate policy reform, and improve the quality of debate on such issues. ■ Without institutional and policy reform, little economic growth can take place. Though USAID Honduras has focused on achieving poverty reduction through economic growth, the mission’s spending has been heavi￾ly oriented toward social service deliv￾ery. Congressional earmarks con￾tributed to increased allocations for such activities, while the Agency’s results management approach fostered projects with short-term, measurable results. ■ Selecting and tracking indicators that directly measure the social and eco￾nomic dimensions of poverty would help USAID to understand more fully how its activities contribute to poverty reduction. Including an “impact on poverty” section in R4 narratives and related reports would assist the task. ■ Poverty reduction strategies in Latin America should give high priority to strengthening the human capital of poor households and increasing their access to infrastructure and assets that improve their entry to markets and lower their transaction costs. KEY IDEAS MARCH 2003 BUREAU FOR POLICY AND PROGRAM COORDINATION PN-ACR-351 USAID’s focus on broad-based sustainable develop￾ment works effectively as a poverty reduction approach. More specifically, the assessment team finds that ■ USAID Honduras is one of the few Agency management units that comes close to adopt￾ing poverty reduction as its overarching goal. The mission maintained a strong emphasis on economic policy reform, though over half of its portfolio supports the direct delivery of social services. ■ USAID’s program is well focused on the poor, especially in health and education, and incor￾porates many poverty reduction objectives. The economic growth portfolio includes microen￾terprise initiatives that provide a safety net to smooth the consumption of the poorest. The municipal development and decentralization program focuses on establishing new services in poor neighborhoods and supporting grass￾roots community groups. USAID also provides key support to the country’s nascent civil society sector. ■ Honduras needs additional policy and institu￾tional reforms in many areas, particularly in public sector salary policy, rule of law, and modernization of the state. However, the mis￾sion’s portfolio is heavily skewed toward deliv￾ery of services, mainly due to congressional earmarks and the USAID results management system. Earmarks make it difficult for program officers to balance direct and indirect approach￾es to poverty reduction and resolve inconsisten￾cies between funding availability and program needs. The results management system requires project managers and program officers to pro￾vide quantifiable measurements of the results of activities on a six-month or yearly basis. The system is thus biased against longer-term policy reform programs. ■ USAID played a key leadership role in the development of the Honduras PRSP. While most of the missions analyzed for this series modified their programs in response to PRSPs, the Honduras PRSP adopted many of USAID’s programming goals. USAID played a critical role in focusing the donor community and civil society on the PRSP process. Allocating funds to support the process, USAID further influ￾enced and shaped the PRSP in sectors where it had a successful track record, notably, in demo￾cratic governance and decentralization, and health and education. USAID also successfully promoted the inclusion of economic policy reform and anticorruption concerns into the PRSP document. ■ Key to successful USAID involvement in the PRSP has been the high level of donor coordi￾nation achieved in Honduras. Important fac￾tors were the leadership of individuals in the U.S. country team and the donor community, the impact of the special circumstances of hur￾ricane reconstruction on the preparation of the PRSP, and the willingness of the Honduran government to engage in a collaborative dia￾logue with donors. ■ The recent Honduran experience illustrates the 2 Evaluation Brief No. 5 Jonathan Sleeper, Team Leader PPC, Evaluation Studies Division Clarence Zuvekas Management Systems International J. Michele Guttmann Management Systems International John Thomas Management Systems International PREPARED BY Honduras needs additional policy and institutional reforms in many areas, particularly in public sector salary policy, rule of law, and modernization of the state. importance of regarding poverty as a multidi￾mensional concept. While income-based pover￾ty indicators show little improvement since 1990, some social indicators—especially those for health status and access to potable water and sanitation facilities—show significant gains. This improvement in the human capital of poor Honduran households will enable them to achieve higher income levels over the long run. However, successful achievement of sustainable growth will require major legal, institutional, and policy reforms. Background The World Bank, IMF, UN agencies, most bilateral donors, and many developing countries have now made poverty reduction their overarching development goal. For HIPCs, debt relief is linked to the development of a nation￾al PRSP. The multilateral development banks regard the PRSP as the country’s focus document that each member of the international donor com￾munity is expected to “buy into.” Despite international commitments by the U.S. Government to poverty reduction, USAID’s guid￾ing principle for development assistance remains sustainable development. Poverty reduction is not an overarching goal; rather, it is an important and desirable outcome of sustainable development. What Is a Poverty Reduction Approach? A poverty reduction approach makes the reduction of poverty the explicit, overarching goal of a devel￾opment agency. Program interventions are designed around an analysis of who the poor are, where they live, and what they do for a living. The approach also examines whether the poor are net buyers or sellers of food, labor, and services; what economic and social problems they face; and the risks to which they are most vulnerable. There are conceptual differences between USAID’s sustainable development approach and the new poverty reduction approach.1 In comparison to a sustainable development approach, a poverty reduc￾tion approach ■ has poverty reduction as an overarching goal ■ pays greater attention to the measurement of the specific poverty reduction impact of various interventions ■ gives greater priority to health and education services targeted to the poor ■ gives mixed priority to economic growth; open￾ness to trade, investment, and information flows; and agriculture ■ gives greater attention to the explicit empower￾ment of the poor ■ is strongly concerned with mitigation of risks faced by the poor (vulnerability) ■ places greater emphasis on public sector institu￾tions as partners, as opposed to nongovernmen￾tal or private sector organizations ■ places greater emphasis on direct interventions that target the poor as immediate beneficiaries, and less on indirect approaches that emphasize broader economic or policy environments ■ is concerned with the coherence between development and nondevelopment policies pursued by the United States and other OECD governments USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 3 Successful achievement of sustainable growth will require major legal, institutional, and policy reforms. 1 Lynn Salinger and Dirck Stryker, Comparing and Evaluating Poverty Reduction Approaches: USAID and the Evolving Poverty Reduction Paradigm (Cambridge, MA: AIRD/CDIE, 2001) PN-CAN-169. About This Study This assessment is one of four country case studies examining how USAID missions operate in coun￾tries where governments and the donor community have shifted to the poverty reduction focus. The purpose is not to evaluate USAID’s performance, but the extent to which the Agency has an effective poverty reduction approach—even though poverty reduction is not its overarching development goal. The assessment examines USAID’s participation in the development of the PRSP in Honduras and whether it modified its approach as a result. This analysis aims to provide insights into the Agency’s development strategy in countries that are focused on poverty reduction. The assessment asked the following questions: ■ Is USAID pursuing a different program strategy in a country such as Honduras that is pursuing a poverty reduction strategy? ■ To what extent is USAID’s approach consistent with a poverty reduction approach? ■ What is USAID’s relationship to the country’s PRSP process? ■ How have congressional earmarks affected budget allocations? Have they helped or con￾strained the implementation of a poverty reduc￾tion approach? The assessment team comprised a team leader from the Evaluation Office of USAID’s Bureau for Policy and Program Coordination, an economist, a public health specialist, and a democracy expert. The team conducted interviews with staff of USAID Honduras and with representatives of the Government of Honduras, other donor agencies, and international financial institutions in Honduras. The team also interviewed contracting and cooperating partners of USAID and other knowledgeable individuals. Recent Developments in Honduras2 Economic Growth Trends Honduras, one of the poorest countries in the Latin American and Caribbean region,3 has a long history of slow eco￾nomic growth. Occasional brief spurts of strong economic performance have usually coincided with high prices for coffee or bananas. Per capita GDP declined during the “lost decade” of the 1980s, but the decline was less than elsewhere in Central America because of massive inflows of U.S. eco￾nomic and military assistance. This high level of assistance kept the exchange rate stable and infla￾tion low, but it also allowed Honduras to incur large fiscal deficits. These proved to be unsustain￾able once U.S. assistance began to fall, as the civil wars in neighboring countries wound down in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In June 1990, Honduras reached an agreement with its international creditors that allowed it to clear debt-service arrears of approximately $250 million. As part of this agreement, the government initiated major economic reform that included a devaluation of the lempira, eventual adoption of a controlled float based on an auction system for for￾eign exchange, trade liberalization, the elimination of most interest-rate and price controls, and the adoption of a broad agricultural modernization law. Macroeconomic policy has been fairly good since then. Annual inflation was reduced from nearly 30 percent in 1995 to about 7 percent in mid-2002. The exchange rate experienced some real apprecia￾tion, but the Central Bank’s controlled float of the 4 Evaluation Brief No. 5 2 This section draws on Clarence Zuvekas Jr., “The Honduran Poverty Reduction Strategy,” paper presented at the 23rd Annual Meeting of the Middle Atlantic Council of Latin American Studies, Newark, Delaware, 15–16 March 2002. 3 According to the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, in 2000 Honduras had a per capita GDP of $924 . Within the Latin American and Caribbean region, only Haiti and Nicaragua had lower figures. However, Honduras ranks higher within the region on some health and education indicators, and has achieved close to universal vacci￾nation of children against the major childhood diseases. nominal exchange rate has been widely accepted by the business community. The fiscal deficit has generally been kept within reasonable bounds. However, sharp increases in public sector salaries, especially for teachers and medical pro￾fessionals, remain a matter of concern. The improved economic policy environ￾ment in the 1990s contributed positively to economic growth. Prior to Hurricane Mitch, GDP seemed headed for an aver￾age annual growth rate of about 4.2 per￾cent, or close to 1.5 percent per capita.4 The devastation caused by the 1998 hur￾ricane lowered average growth for the decade to 3.2 percent, or 0.5 percent per capita. The GDP growth rate in 2001 is estimated to have been only 2.6 percent, reflecting the country’s vulnerability to natural disas￾ters (drought) and unfavorable world economic trends such as depressed coffee prices and the U.S. recession. A somewhat lower growth rate was expected in 2002. However, it is worth noting that actual GDP growth in the 1990s was probably somewhat high￾er than the reported figures. This is mainly because maquila or assembly production— mostly of apparel—is underestimated in the national accounts. Value added by the rapidly growing sec￾tor grew from an estimated $10 million in 1990 to $662 million in 2000. Honduras is now the lead￾ing Central American exporter of apparel to the United States. Political Trends Like many other Latin American countries, Honduras has a history of frequent, irregular changes of government, with the military often playing a strong role in governmental affairs. However, the last 20 years constituted a major break from this pattern. Honduras began its democratiza￾tion process in 1981. Elections have been held every four years since 1981, and most have been charac￾terized by a relatively high degree of fairness. The two major political parties have alternated in power. The political influence of the military has declined steadily since the mid-1980s. The participation of women in government has exhibited mixed trends and remains especially weak in the legislature. In February 2001, seven women were cabinet ministers or in cabinet-level positions, but these advances do not appear to have been sustained. Civil society organizations in Honduras have been subject to less repression than in some other Central American countries. They have been gain￾ing strength, overcoming some past institutional weaknesses and fragmented efforts. Although few could be considered strong, civil society organiza￾tions have increased their collective efforts since Hurricane Mitch and have gained a growing voice in public policymaking. Notwithstanding these and other positive steps, Honduras still suffers from weak judicial and leg￾islative institutions, an inefficient executive branch, and widespread corruption. The country has begun to address corruption, in part because of growing pressures from the international community and Honduran civil society. Honduras’s ranking by Transparency International has slowly improved— USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 5 4 Though a GDP growth rate of 4.2 percent is not especially impres￾sive, this figure exceeded the average for the Latin American and Caribbean region during the 1990s. Hurricane Mitch caused an estimated economic loss of $3.8 billion to Honduras. About two-thirds of $293 million in emergency supplemental funds allocated to the reconstruction effort was spent on critical social and economic infrastructure for poor people. Rather than service delivery, the reconstruction program emphasized economic growth. rising in 2001 to fifteenth among 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries and tied for sev￾enty-first out of 91 countries worldwide.5 Trends in Poverty and Income Inequality The Honduran PRSP explicitly treats poverty as a multidimensional concept, reflecting an interna￾tional consensus.6 A broad definition of poverty is important for policy purposes, as such a definition makes clear that a focus on economic growth and rising average incomes does not attack all the root causes of poverty. Though this focus is essential for long-run poverty reduction efforts, non-income dimensions of poverty and income inequality are also important considerations. Still, income-based measures of poverty are an appropriate starting point. A series of Honduran poverty indicators, based on multipurpose house￾hold surveys, has been available annually since 1991. At first glance, the figures seem to show a significant reduction in the incidence of poverty— from 74.8 percent in 1991 to 64.5 percent in 2001. The actual reduction was probably signifi￾cantly less. First, the high 1991 figure was likely to have been a temporary spike reflecting the release of repressed inflation in 1990, when the lempira was devalued and price controls eliminated or reduced. Second, the reported rise in real incomes after 1991 partially reflects improvements in the measurement of income rather than an actual increase.7 Extreme poverty—defined as insufficient income to meet minimum nutritional requirements—report￾edly fell from 54.2 percent in 1991 to 47.4 percent in 2001. Extreme poverty thus reportedly fell less than overall poverty, and the actual reduction was probably minimal. Extreme poverty in rural areas fell initially, but in 2001 it was slightly higher— 60.5 percent—than the 59.9 percent rate in 1991. Poverty in Honduras has also been defined in terms of satisfaction of a set of six basic needs: potable water, sanitary services, primary education, capacity of the household to provide sustenance (a combina￾tion of education of the head of household and employment), housing space (no overcrowding), and housing quality. When so defined, Honduran household surveys show greater progress in reduc￾ing the incidence of poverty. The incidence of unsatisfied basic needs fell from 67 percent of households in 1990 to 48 percent in 1999. The percentage of households with two or more unsatisfied basic needs fell from 42 to 22 over the same period. The most progress occurred in education and the least in the two housing indica￾tors. As with income-based indicators, these needs￾based indicators show poverty to be greater in rural than in urban areas (58 percent and 37 percent, respectively, in 1999). Nutrition indicators provide a mixed picture of recent trends. One disturbing set of data reports that the incidence of undernourishment among first graders, aged six and older, fell from 39.8 per￾cent in 1986 to 34.1 percent in 1990, but increased to 40.6 percent in 1997.8 However, these data do not provide a clear indication of whether nutrition￾al status actually deteriorated during the 1990s. The data are difficult to relate to other poverty indicators because nutritional status is determined largely by food consumption and health during the first few years of life. The data for 1997, the latest available in this series, thus probably more closely reflect conditions in the early 1990s. Another set of data, from the USAID-supported Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) carried out at five-year intervals, provides a more opti￾6 Evaluation Brief No. 5 5 Transparency International, “The 2001 Corruption Perceptions Index” (Paris, Transparency International, June 27, 2001) . 6 World Bank, World Development Report 2000/2001: Attacking Poverty (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001). 7 In making its own estimates of poverty, the World Bank has adjusted household survey income figures downward to bring their growth in line with GDP growth in the national accounts. However, to the extent that GDP growth is understated, the World Bank’s adjustments go too far. 8 República de Honduras, Estrategia para la reducción de la pobreza (ERP) (Tegucigalpa, August 2001), 10–11 . mistic picture of recent trends in nutritional status. These data show a steady improvement in the inci￾dence of childhood malnutrition—from 43 percent in 1991 to 38 percent in 1996, and a further reduction in 2001 to 32 percent. Income inequality in Honduras is higher than aver￾age for Latin America—which, as a region, has the greatest income inequality in the world. Estimates of the Gini coefficient of income concentration vary, but they are generally well above 0.50, which is considered high. A slightly declining trend in inequality was recorded between 1986 and 1996, though the 1996 figure (0.55) remained very high.9 Given research findings that the difficulty of achiev￾ing poverty reduction increases with greater initial income inequality,10 high Honduran Gini coeffi￾cients may help explain why modest economic growth in the 1990s did little to reduce the inci￾dence of income-based poverty. USAID and the PRSP Process Honduras was declared eligible for debt relief under the HIPC initiative after Hurricane Mitch caused an estimated $3.8 billion in damage to the country’s economy. In the aftermath, the international donor community moved aggressively to help the govern￾ment develop a reconstruction program and to pro￾vide a mechanism—known as the G-15 group of donors—for monitoring its implementation. The donors established 13 sectoral working groups—including one on economic growth and poverty reduction—that began holding periodic meetings with government and civil society. These groups began to monitor implementation of the PRSP once the reconstruction program got under￾way. Donors naturally transferred their attention to the PRSP, since its policy framework resembled that of the reconstruction program. USAID was heavily involved in the PRSP working groups dealing with macroeconomic policy and poverty reduction, agriculture and natural resources, justice, decentralization and municipal development, education, health, and transparency and governance. The Agency also financed consult￾ant services to the Ministry of the Presidency, which directed the preparation of the PRSP. USAID’s participation in the PRSP was character￾ized as having broadened the strategy’s long-term vision and development content, including the recognition that poverty reduction measures should have priority over poverty alleviation activities.11 When asked whether and to what extent the PRSP process affected USAID programming decisions, interviewees consistently indicated that the reverse occurred: the PRSP adopted many USAID pro￾gramming goals. The effect of the PRSP on USAID programs was relatively slight because they already reflected goals and objectives consistent with pover￾ty reduction. USAID played a critical role, focusing the donor community and civil society on participating in the PRSP process. Further, USAID influenced and shaped the PRSP in sectors such as administration of justice and municipal development, where the Agency had a successful track record. USAID also influenced the incorporation of transparency and anticorruption objectives and indicators into the PRSP. The mission’s involvement facilitated public discussion and debate to a degree that would not have occurred in the past. Many representatives of other donors and Government of Honduras entities told the evalua￾tion team that the United States played the most important leadership role among the donors. The USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 7 9 Quentin T. Wodon, Poverty and Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank Technical Paper No. 467 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2000), 39; Samuel Morley, The Income Distribution Problem in Latin America and the Caribbean (Santiago, Chile: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2001). Data problems and other considerations suggest that actual inequality may be somewhat lower than the 1996 calculation, but the general picture of high inequality seems accurate. 10 World Bank, World Development Report 2000/2001, 55–57 and 123–24; Klaus Deininger and Pedro Olinto Asset Distribution, Inequality, and Growth, World Bank Working Paper 2375, ; Martin Ravallion, Growth, Inequality and Poverty: Looking Beyond Averages, Development Research Group, World Bank, November 16, 2001 . 11 República de Honduras, Estrategia para la reducción de la pobreza, 55–56. role of the U.S. ambassador was widely praised, as was that of several USAID officers. Government of Honduras officials were particularly impressed that senior USAID officers took the time and effort to attend civil society meetings in towns far from the capital. The final version of the PRSP was accepted by the IMF and World Bank in October 2001. However, as of mid-2002, Honduras had not become eligible for full HIPC debt relief benefits because it had not fully implemented its poverty reduction strategy. A central problem was weak tax administration and insufficient control over public sector salary increas￾es. Progress has also been slow on structural reforms, including privatization and modernization of the state. The change of government in January 2002 temporarily exacerbated these problems. USAID Honduras’s Strategic Approach Poverty Reduction as an Overarching Goal USAID Honduras is one of the very few missions that come close to having poverty reduction as an overarching goal.12 The Honduras program has maintained a strong focus on poverty reduction since at least 1996. Program documents—such as the strategic plans of 1996–98 and 1998–2003, and, more recently, the concept paper for the mission’s 2004–08 strategy—empha￾size broad-based economic growth and poverty reduction rather than poverty alleviation. Interviewees representing the donor community, the Government of Honduras, and the private sec￾tor commented that USAID’s program was focused on poverty reduction through its policy and institu￾tional reform efforts. Beginning in the 1990s, the mission began to regard investment in the human capital of the poor as more important for reducing poverty. More recently, the portfolio added a very strong emphasis on health activities. This reorientation coincided with an increase in congressional earmarks for child survival and disease programs, and a reduction in funding for economic growth and policy reform across the Bureau for Latin America and Caribbean (LAC). While mission documentation still puts emphasis on economic growth and policy reform, in reality, the portfolio is now heavily focused on the direct delivery of social services to poor people. Priority of Health and Education Over half of the USAID portfolio is dedicated to health and education activities (Table 1). This pro￾portion substantially exceeds the UNDP’s guideline that 20 percent of donor country programs be allo￾cated to social services. It is therefore not surprising that USAID is the leader in the health sector. Health activities are well targeted to poor people, especially in rural areas. The program focuses on decentralization and sustainable services, providing a key intervention package of immunizations, inte￾grated maternal and child health services, pediatric emergency care, nutrition education, and family planning. The education portfolio is also relatively well tar￾geted to poor people. About a third of poor young Honduran males are pressured to become income earners and drop out of school by the sixth grade. Thus, the major focus of the USAID portfolio is alternative primary education for illiterate adults 8 Evaluation Brief No. 5 Poverty Alleviation vs. Poverty Reduction While often used interchangeably, poverty allevia￾tion and poverty reduction are not the same. Poverty Alleviation Poverty Reduction Relieves symptoms Attacks root causes Short-run focus Long-run focus Transitory effects Permanent effects Consumption Investment 12 According to keyword analysis of R4s submitted by 101 USAID management units for FY2001, only 11 use the words “poor” or “poverty” in the titles of their strategic objectives, intermediate results, or indicators. Only 14 did so in FY2002. and youth, using interactive radio instruction. Half the beneficiaries are women, 80 percent of whom are mothers. USAID also funds other NGO-sup￾ported activities in vocational education. Priority of Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Trade The economic growth, agriculture, and trade pro￾gram made up only 16 percent of USAID Honduras’s regular portfolio (Table 1). Since the inception of the mission’s strategic plan in 1997, the objective of the program has been economic growth that expands opportunities for the poor. However, except for its work with microenterprise and poor artisans, the program has little direct focus on poor people or small farmers. Much of its work is concerned with demand-driven assistance to small and medium-sized businesses, and exten￾sion and marketing assistance for farmers exporting nontraditional products. The program also supports policy advocacy and reform efforts at the national level. It links micro￾economic growth to policy reform and poverty reduction by focusing on demand-driven enter￾prise, competitiveness, and awareness of the institu￾tional environment affecting transaction costs. The program also connects its promotion of small busi￾nesses in secondary cities and rural areas with activ￾ities that build advocacy for specific policy or regu￾latory reforms that reduce transaction costs. One example is support for the administrative simplifi￾cation law to permit more rapid registration of businesses. The program recognizes that expanded production increases the number of jobs, many at the low skill levels of the poor. Democratic Governance and Decentralization USAID is widely recognized by other donors and government officials as being in the vanguard in introducing programs in rule of law and decentral￾ization. These two programs make up 19 percent of the total portfolio (Table 1). Anticorruption USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 9 SO 1 Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction 25,324 16 SO 2 Natural Resources and Biodiversity 13,032 8 SO 3 Sustainable Family Health* 74,295 48 SO 4 Democratic Governance 9,486 6 SO 5 Hurricane Reconstruction Program** – – SO 6 Basic Education and Vocational Skills 12,319 8 SO 7 Effective Municipal Government 20,902 13 Total 155,358 100 Table 1. USAID Honduras Operating Year Budget Obligations, FY1997–FY2001 (Five Years) Strategic Objective ($000) Percentage * Of the $27,000 Title II obligations, 80 percent are allocated to health programs and 20 percent to agricultural programs. ** Not included in total. Vocational training for school dropouts is an important component of USAID's poverty reduction strategy in Honduras. activities became an important element with the monitoring of the Hurricane Mitch portfolio in 1998. The Honduran justice system historically has func￾tioned poorly and has failed to win the respect or confidence of citizens. Wealthy Hondurans have been able to manipulate or evade the system, while the poor have had no effective defense or recourse. Although aiding the poor was never a primary objective, USAID’s rule-of-law efforts greatly strengthened the involvement of civil society in legal and judicial reform efforts, and have had direct as well as indirect positive impacts on the poor. These impacts have included ■ establishment of an independent Public Ministry and specialized units to prosecute crimes and protect public rights—such as those related to consumer, anticorruption, and gender issues ■ creation of a public defender’s office to provide legal counsel and representation to indigent defendants ■ revisions to the Criminal Procedures Code to protect individual rights and due process, reduce the incidence of lengthy pretrial deten￾tions of primarily poor defendants, and increas￾ing transparency through oral public trials ■ passage of a constitutional amendment that increases judicial independence However, the mission has given relatively little attention to improving the enforcement of property rights and commercial contracts. In these areas, institutional strengthening can contribute indirectly to poverty reduction by accelerating economic growth. The municipal development and decentralization program is strongly focused on poor urban areas. Activities include training of mayors, council mem￾bers, and community leaders; promoting decentral￾ization of government services; strengthening citizen participation in local government; and improving coverage of basic services, including establishment of new services in poor neighborhoods. The pro￾gram also includes direct aid for training and capac￾ity building of grassroots community groups work￾ing with local governments in poor neighborhoods. Hurricane Reconstruction Program Hurricane Mitch caused an estimated economic loss of $3.8 billion to Honduras in October 1998. In 1999, Congress allocated $293 million in emer￾gency supplemental funds to support reconstruc￾tion. USAID programmed about two-thirds of these monies for critical social and economic infrastruc￾ture for poor people (Table 2). The remaining funds were used for a wide variety of activities; most were focused directly on poor families affected by the dis￾aster. Rather than service delivery, the reconstruc￾tion program emphasized economic growth. Its funds were not burdened by earmarks requiring health service delivery, as in the regular program. Of special note was the establishment of a concur￾rent audit facility in the Controller General’s Office for the entire USAID-funded reconstruc￾tion effort. USAID also supported a program mobilizing civil society to push for accountability and transparency in government. Toward that end, civil society organizations were able to publicly dis￾seminate the national budget for the first time, and 10 Evaluation Brief No. 5 Microenterprise programs commonly include loans to small sewing ventures. Such programs help reduce the vulnerability of poor people to economic downturns. USAID is by far the largest donor in this sector in Honduras, reaching over 100,000 clients in 2001. the results of reconstruction program audits were published on the internet. As a result of these efforts, observers judge the corruption was much less than in other Central American disasters. Access to information is needed to make demands and to create awareness of basic rights to public services. Transparency and accountability are key to improving the lives of the poor. Monitoring the Impact on Poverty Reduction Although the Agency had significant input in the development of poverty indicators during the preparation of the PRSP, USAID does not formally track the incidence of income-based poverty or any other comprehensive indicator of poverty such as unsatisfied basic needs or the UNDP’s Human Development Index. However, as Table 3 shows, USAID Honduras does monitor some aspects of the poverty impact of its programs. ■ Under Strategic Objective (SO)1, Access to Productive Resources and Markets, the number of persons benefiting from microfinance and their capacity to repay loans provides indirect evidence of poverty impact. ■ Under SO2, Watersheds, Forests, and Protected Areas, no indicator measures any aspect of poverty, although mission staff point￾ed out that well-implemented programs should create jobs for the poor and protect their land and other assets. ■ Five of the six indicators under SO3 (health) directly measure some aspect of health status and can be considered as poverty indicators. ■ None of the indicators for SO4, Rule of Law and Human Rights, measures any aspect of poverty; most are concerned with the efficiency of judicial processes. ■ The three indicators for SO6, Education and Vocational Skills, do not distinguish poor from nonpoor beneficiaries. USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 11 Table 2. Hurricane Reconstruction Program Obligations, 1999 Infrastructure ($000) Percentage Rural and Urban Water and Sanitation 92,378 Rural and Urban Road and Bridge Construction 49,890 River Basin and Watershed Improvement 16,513 Municipal Construction in Poor Neighborhoods 15,161 School and Vocational Center Construction 7,850 Subtotal 181,792 62 Other Agricultural Credit, Technology Transfer, and Policy Reform 47,193 Emergency Housing Construction 19,173 Vocational (Alternative Basic) Education 11,324 Support to PVOs (Technical Assistance and Services) 14,622 Microenterprise Lending 10,000 Subtotal 102,312 35 Transparency and Accountability (Concurrent Audit) 8,294 3 Total 292,398 100 ■ Of the indicators for SO7, Municipal Government, only the indicator dealing with improved coverage of basic services can be considered a poverty indicator. Why monitor poverty reduction impact? While most economic and social reforms may benefit the poor at least proportionally to the general popula￾tion, they sometimes have negative effects on some groups of poor families or benefit them less than proportionally. In an ideal world, with good data and adequate staffing and resources, USAID Honduras would track such differential effects. In practice, such tracking is rarely feasible. Still, USAID should be alert to the possibility that reform measures may not always have the desired 12 Evaluation Brief No. 5 Expanded and Equitable Access to Productive Resources and Markets Improved Management of Watersheds, Forests, and Protected Areas Sustainable Improvement in Family Health Strengthened Rule of Law and Respect for Human Rights Improved Opportunity to Obtain Basic Education and Vocational Skills More Responsive and Effective Municipal Government Table 3. USAID Honduras Performance Indicators by Strategic Objective (SO) Source: USAID Honduras Results Review & Resource Request, April, 2001. This document did not provide annual indicators for SO 5 (Hurricane Reconstruction Program). ● annual value of private sector investment ● percent micro- and small enterprises receiving financial services from USAID ● percent portfolio at risk less than 30 days ● area under conservation programs ● number of protected areas under improved management ● number of municipal government and rural communities with key personnel trained ● number of improved watershed management units at municipal level ● percent quality rural water systems working ● percent children with adequate growth trends ● confirmed cases of malaria ● cure rate of treated tuberculosis cases ● HIV seroprevalence in commercial sex workers ● number of couple years of protection through reproductive health services ● number of criminal cases disposed of per judge per year in pilot courts ● number of Public Ministry cases successfully adjudicated by the court ● compliance with criminal case resolution timeframes for cases in pilot courts ● percent cases prosecuted and adjudicated by pilot courts ● progress in implementation of new criminal procedures code ● percent primary education students passing grade levels ● number of graduates from vocational training centers finding employment ● number of small municipalities strengthened ● percent increase in municipal income ● number of articipants in town meetings ● coverage of public services (sewage, etc.) SO 2 SO 3 SO 4 SO 6 SO 7 SO 1 positive effects on poor populations and be pre￾pared to take corrective measures when qualitative evidence suggests the need to reorient programs toward the poor. Some USAID officers believed that establishing poverty reduction indicators is not within their program’s “manageable interest.” Though many indicators are informally monitored by mission staff, the feeling is that it is not necessary to formal￾ize them. Another argument against doing so is that the mission has revised its performance indica￾tors too often in recent years, thus making it diffi￾cult to track how well strategic objectives are met over the medium term. One approach to better poverty tracking may be to include an “impact on poverty” section in each of the SO narratives in the mission’s R4 documents and related reports. Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor Under the poverty reduction approach, reducing vulnerability emphasizes the establishment of per￾manent safety nets to lessen the impact on poor people of disaster, economic downturn, or incapaci￾tation of breadwinners. USAID programs in this area are traditionally limited to microenterprise activities13 and P.L. 480 Title II humanitarian assis￾tance. In Honduras, USAID spent about $33.5 million over the five-year period—almost one-fifth of the program—on Title II food assistance and microenterprise lending programs that targeted the most vulnerable households. The microenterprise program had an accumulated loan portfolio of $32 million in 2001. It reached over 100,000 clients, 79 percent of them women. USAID is the largest donor in this sector, providing substantial additional assistance to microenterprise institutions in credit, organizational management, and training. The largest of these, COVELO, reports that 18 percent of its loans are for less than $100. The Title II program reaches nearly 60,000 individ￾uals, or about 10 percent of the total population in Lempira, La Paz, and Intibucá, the country’s three poorest departments. In addition to food distribu￾tion to expectant mothers and those with those children under the age of two, the program mone￾tizes about half the commodities to support agricul￾tural extension, access to health services, strength￾ened local government, and employment genera￾tion. The Title II food distribution system support￾ed by USAID can also respond quickly to natural disasters, as demonstrated in the response to Hurricane Mitch. Role of Government The poverty reduction approach explicitly recog￾nizes the value of public services to poor people. The USAID program supports the provision of government services at both national and municipal levels, in some cases through direct assistance to the government. For example, USAID channels about $13 million per year—roughly 40 percent of its annual portfolio—through the Ministry of Health, which provides the majority of health services in the country. This assistance supports a broad range of activities aimed at improving the delivery of health services to the rural and urban poor. In the area of municipal development and decentral￾ization, USAID has had a continuing and successful relationship since the mid-1980s working with local municipalities and related entities throughout Honduras to improve delivery of municipal services to poor people. Over the FY1997–2001 period, USAID allocated about $14 million in P.L. 480 Title III monetized funds, jointly programmed with the Government of Honduras for several activities— most notably, food policy reform. The USAID portfolio in Honduras is relatively well balanced among activities channeled through national government entities, municipal govern￾ments, NGOs, and the private sector. Allocations for NGO activities in some sectors might be con￾sidered low in comparison to other missions—for example in West Africa—but this likely reflects more effective governments in Latin America and the absence of a well developed and organized civil society to act as a counterpart in sectors such as democratic advocacy. USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 13 13 The primary impact of microenterprise lending is to minimize vulnerability. World Bank, World Development Report 2000/2001. Environmental Activities USAID’s approach to environmental sustainability has emphasized global environmental concerns: biodiversity, sustainable urbanization, energy use, and local resource management. The evolving poverty reduction paradigm, however, seeks to inte￾grate environmental concerns with sustainable livelihood strategies for the poor. Donors adopting this focus will differ significantly in their emphasis on environmental sustainability.14 Environmental activities in USAID Honduras’s recent programming and strategy documents are focused on sustainable development. Neither the 2001 R4 document nor the proposed strategy for FY 2004–08 makes an explicit linkage between such activities and the livelihood of poor households. A reference to job creation is an implicit linkage. Activities under the environmental portfolio may be of more than proportional benefit to the poor. Poor families are more likely to live in environmen￾tally threatened areas and locations highly vulnera￾ble to natural disasters. The results framework, however, does not make clear the extent to which activities are targeted to poor communities. Indirect vs. Direct Approaches Overview The distinction between indirect and direct approaches to combating poverty was defined by Jagdish Bhagwati: the indirect approach uses resources to accelerate growth and raise the living standards of the poor, creating income and con￾sumption in the process. By contrast, the direct route provides consumption through public expendi￾tures on minimum needs-oriented education, hous￾ing, nutritional supplements, and health.15 This dis￾tinction is similar to that between poverty reduction and poverty alleviation; in both cases, the dividing line between the two concepts may be blurred.16 USAID’s portfolio in Honduras includes substan￾tial indirect activities that promote policy and insti￾tutional reform. These are strongly supported by program documentation giving priority to poverty reduction measures that stimulate long-term eco￾nomic growth. However, the largest share of the mission’s non-Mitch resources was designated for health programs focused on direct delivery of serv￾ices to poor people. Nevertheless, several Government of Honduras officials told the evalua￾tion team that USAID’s indirect programs have had more impact than its direct programs. Health and Education While the health portfolio is mostly focused on direct delivery of services to poor people, USAID also supports important work in policy reform. About 5 percent of its annual health budget is devoted to policy initiatives focusing on the decen￾tralization of the Ministry of Health, primary and preventive healthcare, and reform of a regressive user fee system that penalizes the rural poor.17 Some policy reform progress has been made, but the unfinished agenda is long. While open to the idea of decentralization to the municipal level, the Ministry of Health continues to support a bloated headquarters staff who perpetuate a “top-down” delivery system. The ministry still favors secondary and tertiary curative care over preventive and pri￾mary healthcare measures that would reduce the load on higher-level health facilities. Few resources are left for the smaller primary care health units, despite evidence that even the poorest population segments would pay more for good quality services. Another problem is a 1997 law guaranteeing steep annual salary increases. It permitted Ministry of Health personnel costs to grow from 38 percent of the total budget in 1996 to 61 percent in 2000, a proportion that will continue to increase if the demands of doctors’ and nurses’ unions are met. Decentralization and more reliance on the private sector would allow the Ministry of Health to focus more on setting policy and developing regulations 14 Evaluation Brief No. 5 14 Salinger and Stryker 2001. 15 Jagdish Bhagwati, “Poverty and Public Policy,” World Development, 16, 5 (1988), 539. 16 Direct expenditures on education, for example, are at least in part investments in human capital that indirectly accelerate economic growth. Indirect, growth-promoting investments in rural roads would be considered as direct benefits by farmers who live along such roads. 17 John L. Fiedler and Javier Suazo, “Ministry of Health User Fees, Equity, and Decentralization: Lessons from Honduras,” unpublished paper, 2001. while maintaining a safety net for the poorest Hondurans. One health policy professional estimat￾ed that up to 20 percent of the health portfolio could be devoted to health policy, but most agreed that a perceptible increase in political will is required to make such an investment worthwhile. When the political will to adopt policy reform is weak but aid funding is abundant, USAID officers focus on service delivery, especially when develop￾ment results must be quantified and measured annually. As one senior officer stated, “We have so much money available for health programs that we use it on service delivery. Instead, we need to improve how the system functions. But you don’t need policy changes to achieve your results when you can finance it all. When you have fewer resources, you look for levers; when you have lots of money, you do direct service delivery.” In response to an improved climate for reform, USAID’s education portfolio is gradually shifting from financing service delivery to supporting the development of new curricula based on revised edu￾cational standards as well as other quality reforms. In the past, USAID provided participant train￾ing—overseas scholarships—to young Hondurans who would assume policymaking positions in gov￾ernment. This kind of training is an important indirect program that donors can support in coun￾tries that have not yet developed the political will to adopt important policy reforms.18 However, USAID Honduras decreased funding for scholar￾ships due to budget cuts in the bilateral program in the mid-1990s.19 The evaluation team noted that several young Hondurans in key policymaking positions in the government were graduates of USAID’s program. One of them said, “The USAID participant scholarship program in the 1980s and early 1990s was very important— I know a mountain of people who have U.S. master’s degrees and are now in decisionmaking positions. Why was this program stopped?” Economic Growth The policy component of the mission’s economic growth program was conceived in 1994 to provide technical assistance that would help the Honduran government understand the importance of macro￾economic policy reform and structural adjustment, and how policy reform can improve economic performance and reduce poverty. USAID support was made available in response to a perceived reduc￾tion in technical assistance provided as part of the conditionality requirements of IMF and World Bank loans. The program supported a policy analysis unit in the government, carried out studies, and provided tech￾nical advice across a broad range of topics in mone￾tary, exchange-rate, and fiscal policy; labor market policy; trade policy; and establishing an outward￾oriented investment climate. Other policy areas tackled by the program included financial market regulation, investment incentives, national income accounts, agriculture (land titling), mining, tourism, and light manufacturing. The program also assisted the development of the hurricane reconstruction plan and the PRSP. Government of Honduras offi￾cials praised its high quality and timely advice. Despite this support, policy and institutional reforms are incomplete in key areas. The apprecia￾tion of the real effective exchange rate needs to be USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 15 USAID supports the delivery of health services through Ministry of Health clinics such as this one. However progress in moving the Ministry of Health toward primary preventive care—which is more oriented towards poor people—has been very difficult. 18 World Bank, Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why (New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1998). 19 In July 1996, USAID substantially reduced the Agency-wide number of education officers. halted to avoid further adverse effects on exports. Increasing competitiveness requires financial sector reforms, including strengthening bank supervision and prudential regulation, reducing inefficiencies in bank operations, improving the investment climate for foreign banks, and promoting bank mergers. Despite significant progress in reducing tariffs, there is scope for further lowering trade barriers and eliminating discretionary actions such as embargoes on basic grains exports and nontariff obstacles to imports. Reform of restrictive laws and regulations limiting part-time work and dismissal of workers would encourage more investment. Other key reform areas for accelerating economic growth, and therefore poverty reduction, include the following. ■ Reduction of the fiscal deficit—The greatest need is for a sound public sector salary policy that will slow the unsustainable rates of increase of the last five years, particularly for teachers and medical professionals. Improved tax administration and a reduction in the number of exemptions are the most promising ways to increase revenues. ■ Modernization of the state—The World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank have been supporting reforms in this area, but progress has been slow. Problems such as those in the Ministry of Health are widespread: gov￾ernment ministries and agencies remain general￾ly overstaffed, inefficient, and lacking in mana￾gerial, administrative, and technical skills. Cumbersome administrative procedures add to firms’ transaction costs. ■ Social security reform—Honduras’s various pub￾lic pension schemes are either technically bank￾rupt or moving in that direction. Legalization and proper supervision of private pension schemes would promote more savings and strengthen the country’s weak capital markets. ■ Privatization—Honduras’s public enterprises are inefficient and the government’s fiscal prob￾lem severely limits needed investments in infra￾structure, especially electric power, telecommu￾nications, and ports. Improvement of infra￾structure will lower transaction costs for those producing for domestic and export markets and accelerate economic growth. ■ The maquila sector—The rapid growth of this sector since 1990 has been beneficial, but a long-term strategy is needed to transform it into a manufacturing sector that makes greater use of skilled labor, locally produced raw mate￾rials, and other inputs. Democratic Governance The establishment of a credible and reliable rule of law was consistently cited by respondents as one of the most urgent and necessary development goals for Honduras. USAID was universally recognized as having played the most prominent and influen￾tial role in the sector. It introduced the administra￾tion of justice as a public policy issue, one that eventually aroused the interest and involvement of other donors. As in the rest of Latin America, the democratic governance program in Honduras originated out of concern for human rights, crime, corruption, and problems related to the transfer of political authori￾ty from military to civilian regimes. The program therefore focuses on political and human rights, legal and judicial reform, and the criminal process. Poverty is not its focal point; neither are the legal institutions that support the market. In spite of modest funding levels, the program is having a substantial impact. In particular, USAID￾supported activities promoting long-term legal and judicial reform are of great indirect benefit to the poor—those primarily harmed by a legal system that restricts economic growth opportunities and that powerful elites manipulate to their advantage. The interests of the poor are served by increasing judicial independence. They also benefit from improving the operation of the system-including the reform of procedures that allow them to be dispro￾portionately punished for criminal infractions. The lack of a predictable, reliable, and transparent 16 Evaluation Brief No. 5 justice system as a whole (an enabling environ￾ment) is perceived as a serious deterrent to invest￾ment and economic growth in Honduras. The mis￾sion has done good long-term work on broad sys￾temic reforms, primarily in the criminal arena. Much of this experience and expertise might be applied to the civil realm to promote transparency, civil procedural reforms, and specific rule-of-law reforms relating to investment and growth—such as those affecting property rights (land tenure and intellectual property) and contract enforcement. An Unfinished Agenda Why should USAID be concerned with policy issues? USAID is the largest bilateral donor in Honduras and plays a leading role in donor coordi￾nation. Unlike other donors, USAID has main￾tained its strategic emphasis on broad-based sus￾tainable growth rather than adopting the narrower goal of poverty reduction. One could say that USAID’s development-strategy “niche” is concern with the enabling environment for poverty reduc￾tion and economic growth rather than poverty reduction per se. Yet the allocation of portfolio monies to economic growth and policy reform has been proportionately less every year. To a large extent, this has happened because earmarks push USAID toward poverty alleviation programs rather than sustainable development. Some believe that the political will for policy reform is weak in Honduras and that no one reads the poli￾cy papers produced under USAID’s policy reform project. However, a recent World Bank document recommends that donors in countries like Honduras should concentrate on activities that might support reform in the long run. These include overseas scholarships, dissemination of ideas about policy reform and development, and stimulation of debate in civil society.20 The now-discontinued USAID par￾ticipant training program produced positive results. The mission’s more recent efforts to strengthen civil society’s ability to exert pressure for government transparency should also have high payoffs. In sum￾mary, the case for providing greater support for poli￾cy reform efforts is strong. The Issue of Earmarks Despite the prominence given in strategy docu￾ments to economic growth, since 1995 USAID Honduras’s program allocations have progressively decreased in this area and increased in health, pop￾ulation, and education (Table 4). Since 1999, the increase in the health portfolio has been driven by earmarks for child survival and disease activities. Currently, over half the mission’s resources are allo￾cated to the direct delivery of health and education services to poor people. Economic growth and poli￾cy reform activities have not only decreased, but over half the economic growth monies have gone to microenterprise earmarks since 1999. Earmarking is also a concern within the health and education sectors. In its 2002 annual report, USAID Honduras was worried that increased funding for HIV/AIDS, driven by congressional earmarks, would result in major cuts in child survival and population funding. This reduction threatened to require USAID to reduce its support for key components of its successful maternal and child health and family planning programs, as well as its support for health reforms that would most benefit poor people. Although Honduras has about half of the HIV/AIDS cases in Central America, mission offi￾cers expressed concern about the country’s absorp￾tive capacity for HIV/AIDS funds, including the $40.4 million (for five years) allocated by the Global AIDS Fund. Concerns were also expressed that additional HIV/AIDS earmarks made it diffi￾cult to meet the growing needs of the mission’s reg￾ular family planning and child survival programs. One senior US official said Earmarks are a terrible hindrance. I strongly support USAID family planning, but historical￾ly we have been flooded with that kind of money. The best contraceptive that I know of is education for young women. But the only way you can get Congress to pass the foreign aid bill, which is very unpopular, is to permit them to put in their pet project. If I had two dollars to invest in Honduras, I would put one dollar in education and one dollar in rule of law. USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 17 20 World Bank, Assessing Aid, 1998. The Results Management System Besides the system of earmarks, another problem contributing to USAID’s unwillingness to devote more funding for policy reform is the reporting requirement under the “management for results” sys￾tem adopted by the Agency in 1996. Under this system, USAID project managers and program officers need to provide quantifi￾able measurements of results from project and program activities on a six-month or yearly basis. Policy Coherence U.S. trade policies are in less conflict with develop￾ment goals in Honduras than is the case in other countries. Honduras benefits from preferential access to the U.S. market under the Caribbean Basin Initiative and NAFTA-parity legislation. Nevertheless, a few important Honduran prod￾ucts—notably sugar—do not enjoy these benefits. More significant in their impact on the Honduran economy are the large subsidies received by U.S. farmers. These subsidies tend to depress Honduran prices of basic grains and other commodities. While poor urban households in Honduras tend to bene￾fit from these price effects, the opposite is true of the poor rural households who grow a large share of the country’s basic grains. U.S. food aid pro￾grams tend to have similar effects. Lessons Learned The PRSP Process and Donor Coordination Donor coordination, especially strong in Honduras since Hurricane Mitch, can play a key role in facili￾tating policy reform, promoting structural change, and facilitating contacts between government and civil society. While the pace of policy reform and structural change in Honduras has not been fast, effective donor coordination through the G-15 mechanism has probably accelerated these processes and laid the groundwork for future gains by improving the quality of the public debate on these issues. The international donor community has effectively promoted contacts between government 18 Evaluation Brief No. 5 Table 4. Congressional Earmarks, 1995–2002. Allocations to Economic Growth (EG); Population, Health, Nutrition, and Education (PHNE); and Child Survival & Disease (CSD) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: USAID congressional presentations 1995 Economic Growth 19,285 16,567 5,922 4,832 3,790 6,489 4,310 4,833 PHNE 9,320 10,071 13,338 12,338 8,758 14,474 12,016 9,412 CSD – – – – 6,540 7,250 8,440 8,800 Total PHNE 9,320 10,071 13,338 12,338 15,298 21,724 20,456 18,212 Total EG & PHNE 28,605 26,638 19,260 17,170 19,088 28,213 24,766 23,045 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Population, Health, Nutrition, and Education Economic Growth Fiscal Years $000 Congressional Earmarks, Economic Growth & PHNE—USAID Honduras 1 Source: Table 4 and civil society, which have increased significantly since 1998. In Honduras, USAID was often the lead donor in the PRSP process. In particular, the Agency played a key role in getting important issues of anticorrup￾tion and decentralization into the document. Important factors in this success included the lead￾ership of individuals in the U.S. country team and the donor community, the impact of the special cir￾cumstances of hurricane reconstruction on the preparation of the PRSP, and the willingness of the Honduran government to engage in a collaborative dialogue with donors. Whether these circumstances will remain favorable is not clear. The effectiveness of donor coordination is not constant over time within any particular country and often depends upon particular individuals. For example, most sur￾vey respondents strongly felt that the departure of the U.S. ambassador in September 2002 would cre￾ate a major leadership void in the donor communi￾ty. Hurricane Mitch reconstruction activities were winding down and some members of the donor community were uncertain about the commitment to donor coordination and civil society participa￾tion by the new Honduran administration that took office in January 2002. USAID—and the U.S. foreign policy community generally—should recog￾nize the importance of effective donor coordination and should strive to maintain its recent high level. Poverty Reduction vs. Poverty Alleviation Since 1996, USAID Honduras has had a strong focus on poverty reduction achieved by economic growth. The balance appeared to be good between direct delivery of services and indirect programs sup￾porting the enabling environment for economic growth. However, in terms of actual dollars spent over the 1995–2002 period, the mission’s portfolio (excluding hurricane reconstruction) evolved into a program heavily oriented toward social service deliv￾ery. Fewer aid dollars supported economic growth. Half the economic growth monies went to microen￾terprise support—most of which represents poverty alleviation rather than poverty reduction. One might say that USAID’s approach to poverty reduction looks better on paper than in practice, since issues of economic policy reform have taken a back seat. Two main factors brought about this change: con￾gressional earmarks and the results management approach. Over the last five years, earmarks for child survival and disease have driven the increase in allocations to health and population activities. Because the results management approach requires measurable, quantifiable indicators every six months or every year, officers are encouraged to design proj￾ects with short-term, measurable results. The results of longer-term policy reform programs are more dif￾ficult to measure. Sustainability and policy reform issues in the health sector also received short shrift. Other factors may have contributed. One was the adoption of what was largely a poverty alleviation approach in the LAC Bureau during the Clinton administration.21 Another was the Agency-wide reduction in the number of economic growth and USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction: The Case of Honduras 19 USAID Officers Comment on Policy Reform I can’t give you results in one year. USAID is not geared for policy reforms. How can USAID balance long-term work with policy reform with our short-term preoccupa￾tion with getting results every six months? What can I do when half of our economic growth money is earmarked for microenterprise, in a country facing so many institutional problems and a poor environment for economic growth? Agriculture Officer It’s easier to measure numbers of microenterprise loans to poor people. What do we get out of policy reform? Over the short term, papers and discussions and not much else. As indicators, these don’t look good in the R4. Program Officer In order to maintain political momentum of a policy proj￾ect in USAID, you have to have accomplished a central objective or a major achievement, like ‘we destroyed the high-government-wage regulations’ or ‘we drove down interest rates.’ Otherwise, you end up with 20 different things that you have done, like seminars on this and poli￾cy papers on that; but all of them don’t add up to much in the current results-reporting scheme. USAID Contractor 2 21 Daniel J. Plunkett and Lynn Salinger, A Case Study of the United States Agency for International Development, DAC Informal Network on Poverty Reduction Scoping Study (Cambridge, MA: Associates for International Resources and Development, January 1999), 21–22; USAID/LAC, FY 99 Trends Analysis: Economic Growth Area (Washington, DC: USAID, June 1999). 20 Evaluation Brief No. 5 education officers. Further, USAID’s level of con￾cern with policy reform in Honduras may have been outstripped by the apparent increase of such structural problems as increased crime and the fail￾ure to confront the government wage problem. Tracking Poverty Indicators The Honduran experience of the last decade illus￾trates the importance of regarding poverty as multi￾dimensional. Though income-based poverty indica￾tors showed little improvement over this period, some social indicators showed significant gains, espe￾cially those for health status and access to potable water and sanitation facilities. These social indicators reveal an improvement in the human capital of poor Honduran households, and thus their ability to achieve higher income levels. Over the long term, greater improvements in education indicators— including those that reflect quality—will be especial￾ly important for poverty reduction in Honduras. USAID could benefit by being more explicit about how its activities in Honduras contribute to poverty reduction. One way to do this is to select indicators that more directly measure the various dimensions of poverty and to track comprehensive indicators such as the income-based incidence of poverty. Another approach to better poverty tracking is to include an “impact on poverty” section in each SO narrative in R4 documents and related reports. Income Distribution and Poverty Reduction The Honduran case study supports recent findings that poverty reduction through macroeconomic economic growth is more difficult the greater the initial inequality in the distribution of income. Accordingly, any long-term poverty reduction strat￾egy should give high priority to targeted activities that strengthen the human capital of poor house￾holds, increase their access to productive assets, and provide infrastructure that improves their access to markets and lowers their transaction costs. Donor support for such activities would enhance the effec￾tiveness of economic growth in reducing poverty. About this publication: IBI–International Business Initiatives furnished editorial and production assistance for this publication. More detailed data and analysis are available in this publication’s companion piece, which is listed in the box above. To order copies or download: These documents can be ordered from USAID’s Development Experience Clearinghouse (DEC). To download, go to www.dec.org and enter PN-ACR-351 as the document identification number in the search box. The DEC may also be contacted at 1611 N. Kent St., Ste. 200, Arlington, VA 22209; tel 703-351-4006; fax 703-351-4039; email docorder@dec.cdie.org. Photo credits: Photo credits: Page 5, USAID; Page 9, USAID; Page 10, Frank Spangler, World View Images; Page 15, David Magurian, Inter-American Development Bank. Evaluation Briefs on USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction Honduras (PN-ACR-351) Mali (PN-ACR-352) Romania (PN-ACR-353) Uganda (PN-ACR-354) PPC Evaluation Working Papers on USAID’s Approach to Poverty Reduction Honduras (PN-ACR-481) Mali (PN-ACR-482) Uganda (PN-ACR-483) Evaluation Briefs provide summaries of key findings. Evaluation Working Papers provide additional background information and data. RELATED PUBLICATIONS 3 4