Impact Evaluation United States Agency for International Development PN–ACG–611 Team Leader: Donald G. McClelland Team Members: Matthew W. Addison, Steven Gale, Will Knowland, Joseph M. Lieberson September 2000 CONTENTS Summary ........................................ 1 Background ................................... 2 Program Elements ......................... 5 Impact ............................................. 7 Program Performance ................. 11 Lessons Learned ........................... 14 SUMMARY N OCTOBER 1999, USAID’s Center for Development Information and Evaluation (CDIE) fielded a five-person team to assess the impact of the Industrial Environmental Management Project. Implemented in the Philippines during 1992–97, IEMP worked with the government and pri￾vate sector to introduce concepts of waste minimization and pollution prevention to small and medium-size industrial firms located outside metropolitan Manila. The project’s principal goal: improve human health. More than 2,600 people participated in IEMP training seminars. Many others took part in a series of public–private dialogs on new regulations— some of them based on policy studies prepared with IEMP financial support. A central feature of the project was the pollution management appraisal (PMA), a simple assessment of opportunities for re￾ducing industrial pollution through low- or no-cost techniques as well as capital investments in equip￾ment that could increase production and simulta￾neously reduce waste and emissions. During 1992–97, USAID introduced pollution-prevention strategies to 143 industrial companies in the Philippines. The immediate result: pollution decreased, and companies increased revenues. But few firms have sustained the benefits, and the strategies have not been institutionalized. REDUCING URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION IN THE PHILIPPINES I 2 PMAs were done for 143 companies through￾out the country. The appraisals identified op￾portunities for the firms to reduce costs, in￾crease revenues, and reduce water pollution. The firms invested a combined total of $27 mil￾lion to implement PMA recommendations. This resulted in annual net benefits of $33 million. Water pollution, gauged by biochemical oxy￾gen demand (a standard measure of organic pollution in wastewater), decreased by 29 per￾cent on average. Most participating companies realized reduced production costs and increased revenues, and the country benefited from lower pollution lev￾els. The project confirmed that industry-led economic growth can be compatible with en￾vironmental protection in the Philippines. Companies tended to adopt low- and no-cost PMA recommendations with a short payback period rather than measures requiring a large capital outlay and a long payback period. Though not a panacea, pollution management appraisals can be effective tools in helping re￾duce pollution at the company level. The prospect of cost savings was the main fac￾tor motivating companies to adopt waste-mini￾mization programs. However, command-and￾control measures were also critical. To be effec￾tive, regulations must be enforced, and penal￾ties for noncompliance must be severe. This was often not the case in the Philippines be￾cause of resource constraints. Market-based instruments for pollution prevention are an important complement to command-and-con￾trol approaches. Such instruments use eco￾nomic incentives (and disincentives) to influ￾ence companies’ behavior. But the PMA process has not been institutional￾ized in the Philippines. The benefits of waste minimization have not been sustained at many participating companies. And neither the PMA process nor PMA recommendations have spread to nonparticipating firms. Why not? Perhaps some plant owners and business man￾agers viewed the cost savings estimated in the PMAs with skepticism. Or firms may simply have been buying time to avoid compliance problems rather than seriously trying to im￾prove operations. As for replication, companies generally did not voluntarily share information with competitors about ways to cut costs. Program performance, including sustainability and replication, may be enhanced and strength￾ened by forging closer working relationships with industry trade associations and top man￾agement of individual companies as well as by ensuring that reliable data are available to mea￾sure costs and benefits and monitor change. BACKGROUND Urbanization in the Philippines has increased dramatically in recent years. In 1993, only one third of the country’s 73 million people lived in urban areas; by 1995, it was more than one half. The Philippines’ economy has also grown substantially since 1993. The industrial and ser￾vice sectors have led that growth. Not surpris￾ingly, urban and industrial growth has led to increased air and water pollution. In many countries, there is a natural tension between industrial development and environ￾mental protection. This is true in the Philip￾pines, though fortunately, the situation has be￾gun to change. USAID has contributed to that change in part through the Industrial Environ￾mental Management Project implemented dur￾ing 1992–97. In October–November 1999, a five￾person CDIE team assessed the impact and ef￾fectiveness of USAID’s pollution-prevention and -control programs in the Philippines. Urban and Industrial Pollution In the Philippines The Philippines’ industrial sector is a major source of water and air pollution. Given the size of the 3 Philippines and the magnitude of its pollution problems, air- and water-quality monitoring data are relatively limited. As of 1996, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR* ) was monitoring air quality at 185 stations. In the Metro Manila area, suspended particulate matter at 200 micrograms per cubic meter was more than double World Health Organization guidelines. Manila’s air is among the most polluted in the world. Almost half of DENR’s 400 water-quality monitoring stations show that pollut￾ants exceed the worst offi￾cial Philippine classification of water bodies. DENR ranks most rivers with a “C” or a “D” on a scale of A to D. The major water pollution prob￾lem is discharge of domes￾tic sewage and industrial organic wastes. Most industrial effluent goes untreated or only par￾tially treated and is discharged into inland and marine waterways. This results in low dis￾solved oxygen levels. More than two thirds of the country’s indus￾trial facilities are located in Metro Manila, where all four major river systems are biologi￾cally dead. The largest polluting industries by volume of effluent are coconut and vegetable oil, sugar milling, distilleries, textiles, iron and steel, mining, and cement. The most toxic pol￾luters are smelters, petroleum refineries, pet￾rochemicals, pesticide and wood preservative industries, gold amalgam processes, industrial chemical industries, and fertilizer plants. In 1989 the National Statistics Office listed 10,000 medium- and large-scale manufacturing firms in the Philippines, of which 8,000 gener￾ated wastewater. All together, they produced 2.5 million metric tons of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in 1990. BOD material uses oxy￾gen in the water, which can threaten aquatic life. In 1992, industry accounted for 29 percent of total BOD nationally; do￾mestic sources, 44 percent; and surface runoff, 27 percent. Water pollution from all three sources cost the nation over $86 million in 1992. Of this, $37 million (in 1992 prices) was from health losses, in￾cluding lost workdays, lost earnings from premature death, and costs of medica￾tion. The other $49 million was in fisheries losses. Indus￾try generated $25 million of total losses. USAID Industrial Environmental Management Project Unlike many industrial pollution programs, which stress treatment of waste, IEMP stressed prevention. It was designed to reduce pollution at its source by improving “industrial house￾keeping,” changing industrial production pro￾cesses, and reducing and reclaiming industrial waste. It also encouraged adoption of cost￾effective pollution abatement technologies. Funded by USAID at $13.2 million, the project operated from July 1992 through June 1997. It had three components: pollution reduction (30 percent of project funding), policy studies (28 percent), and capacity building (42 percent). To prevent pollution at its source, industrial corporations must be convinced that preven￾tion is financially beneficial. Companies do not intend to harm the environment, but they are in business to make a profit. If low-cost, envi￾ronmentally sensitive investments and changes * DENR is the government agency primarily responsible for protecting and enhancing environmental quality and for formulating environmental standards. “The project was designed to reduce polution at its source by improving ‘industrial housekeeping’ and reducing and reclaiming industrial waste.” 4 in production processes will reduce costs and increase profits, they may take action. And if they do, the companies will reduce their costs, the country will suffer less environmental dam￾age, and public health will improve. IEMP used pollution management appraisals to identify ways to realize savings, typically by using fewer raw materials and less water and energy in the production process. This in turn helps reduce waste treatment and disposal costs. There is another incentive. The govern￾ment can fine or shut down businesses that vio￾late pollution standards. Under the project, however, companies that initiated PMAs were given a one-year exemption from complying with those standards—a valuable incentive to participate. A pollution management appraisal identifies waste-minimization opportunities ranging from no- or low-cost options to those that are more capital intensive. It estimates how much a company would save by adopting alternative options as well as the rate of return and pay￾back period. Pollution-prevention options may involve 1) minimizing industrial waste, 2) re￾claiming and reusing waste, and 3) using new technology to reduce waste. To build manage￾ment support, businesses are often encouraged to start with no- or low-cost measures. Then they can decide whether to make more costly investments that could yield even greater re￾turns. An important tactical question concerns what types of business should be selected for a PMA. One could select the worst polluters. Though they would seem obvious candidates, their se￾nior management may be inept or uninterested in reducing pollution. Alternatively, one could select the best performers. Such companies are likely to implement and sustain PMA recom￾mendations. But they are already relatively clean, so selecting them will have little envi￾ronmental effect. Finally, some businesses pro￾duce a unique product or have a unique pro￾duction process. Such companies, if principal sources of toxic waste, may be good candidates for PMAs. But they are poor candidates for rep￾lication since there are few businesses that could adopt similar pollution measures. Under IEMP, no selection criteria were used. Instead, any small- or medium-size firm located outside Metro Manila that wanted to partici￾pate could do so. The project used education and training pro￾grams to introduce the PMA concept to more than 400 companies and a variety of industry trade associations, nongovernmental organiza￾tions (NGOs), and professional associations. Of the 400 firms, 143 volunteered for PMAs. The IEMP end-of-project report (July 1997) indicates that over 90 percent of them implemented pol￾lution-prevention measures. A quarter of the companies each invested less than $2,000 in such measures; the remaining 75 percent each invested more than $2,000. Total combined in￾vestment was reportedly $27 million. This in￾vestment generated annual net financial ben￾efits of $33.1 million. The payback period was less than 10 months. The reduction in pollu￾tion load (BOD) averaged 29 percent at the 143 firms. The Philippines has had a long tradition of cen￾tralized command and control. The govern￾ment sets the rules; industry is expected to fol￾low them. An exhaustive set of environmental rules and regulations had been in place, but enforcement was lax and uneven. To help deal with this problem, IEMP supported 6 major policy studies and 11 public–private dialogs on pollution issues. It also worked with DENR to rationalize regulations and standards. Action programs were developed by IEMP and adopted by DENR for environmental impact assessments, market-based environmental instruments, air￾and water-quality management, enforcement of fines and penalties, and management of haz￾ardous wastes and toxic chemicals. 5 Finally, IEMP trained more than 2,600 people from both the public and private sectors in en￾vironmental management skills. By strength￾ening institutions and creating a pool of quali￾fied experts in pollution management, IEMP tried to ensure program sustainability. Program Elements Many USAID-funded urban and industrial pol￾lution programs support interventions in one or more of five areas: economic policy reform; environmental regulations and standards; edu￾cation and awareness campaigns; institution building; and technological change. This was the case in the Philippines. Economic Policies A well-designed economic policy environment can be a powerful tool. Key economic policy issues include pricing, market-based instru￾ments, and financing. Pricing Most of the IEMP industries were relatively water intensive (for example, agriculture pro￾cessing and textiles). Thus, any reduction in water use would theoretically yield significant cost savings for the company—but only with realistic pricing policies. This is not the case in the Philippines. Water from municipal systems is inexpensive, and groundwater is free. Thus, there is little incentive to conserve water. For example, a company might decide it was finan￾cially more attractive to invest in a well for tap￾ping “free” groundwater than to pay for piped municipal water. Yet, tapping groundwater lowers the water table, which can deplete aqui￾fers. It can also result in saltwater intrusion. Energy pricing policy is also important. In the Philippines, power purchased from the electric utility is generally a significant cost of produc￾tion. Companies tend to conserve energy by reducing their demand for electricity. The util￾ity burns less fuel, reducing pollution. How￾ever, alternative power sources are often envi￾ronmentally less desirable. For example, firms can “save” on electricity by investing in less efficient (and highly polluting) diesel genera￾tors. Unless energy pricing policy encourages use of cleaner fuels and power sources, or of energy-efficient technology, companies will continue to use energy sources that are least expensive to them—irrespective of social cost. Market-Based Instruments The Philippines’ traditional approach to pol￾lution control has relied primarily on command and control—creating regulations and then enforcing them. By contrast, market-based ap￾proaches impose fees and provide incentives to achieve the same objective. In economic terms, pollution discharge fees imposed on the polluter equate private and social costs of pol￾lution. An IEMP policy study analyzed the merits of several market-based instruments. Of these, user fees were singled out for more study, the results of which became the basis for establish￾ing a “polluter pays” emissions fee system for the Laguna Lake Development Authority. Companies are assessed fees on their effluent discharge into the lake or tributary streams. Companies that reduce waste generation are rewarded with lower fees and penalties. This was the first time a fee-based system had been used in the Philippines, and the program ap￾pears to have succeeded. It has contributed to measurable improvements in the quality of Laguna Lake—a major freshwater body adja￾cent to Manila and long an important source of fish and means of livelihood for local people. Buoyed by the success at Laguna Lake, DENR plans to introduce similar fees nationwide. Financing Investing in pollution prevention and waste minimization is a relatively recent practice, for 6 both Philippine businesses and financial insti￾tutions. Companies are unaccustomed to mak￾ing bankable cost calculations, just as bankers are unaccustomed to reviewing loan requests for these purposes. However, the IEMP policy study “Financial Resources to Fund Environ￾mental Investments” examined the major is￾sues and provides an agenda for government and financial institutions to explore the topic. Working in partnership with DENR, the Land Bank of the Philippines and the Development Bank of the Philippines now target small and medium-size firms for concessional loans to fi￾nance pollution-prevention and waste-minimi￾zation efforts. Government Regulations And Standards Environmental laws, standards, and regula￾tions—and government’s capacity and willing￾ness to enforce them—are pivotal factors in the relative success of pollution-prevention projects. In the Philippines, enforcement has a poor track record, partly because of unreason￾ably strict laws, uneven enforcement, and cor￾ruption. One principal objective of IEMP was to provide DENR with technical assistance and advice on a range of issues concerning regula￾tions for industrial environmental manage￾ment; policy studies were an important mecha￾nism to achieve this objective. DENR already had a five-year agenda for such studies when IEMP began—an indication of the demand for expert advice. The results of some of these studies were ap￾plied quickly as departmental administrative orders or regulations: the Standards for Repub￾lic Act concerning toxic materials, for example, and the Guidelines for Social Acceptability. Other studies have provided major input for the Clean Air Act, passed in early 1999, and the Clean Water Act, expected to be passed. Education and Awareness IEMP supported a significant training compo￾nent designed to build environmental aware￾ness and technical knowledge in both the pri￾vate and public sectors. The training was aimed at environmental consultants, managers and technical staff from industry, and government staff at both the national and local levels. Train￾ing modules were developed in six technical areas. In addition, the project supported a se￾ries of seminars and roundtables for private– public sector dialog. The sessions provided a valuable forum for public debate on proposed reforms in environmental policy. Special work￾shops were held to respond to requests from DENR’s Environmental Management Bureau. The project consciously “Philippinized” the content of the courses and trained Filipino in￾structors as rapidly as possible. This made the courses more appropriate and effective for the participants and had the advantage of devel￾oping a corps of Filipino technical trainers. The project also strengthened the technical capabil￾ity of local consultants engaged by IEMP to con￾duct pollution management appraisals. Several are known to be active in industrial environ￾mental consulting today. Pollution-control of￾ficers from factories and elsewhere in the pri￾vate sector also participated in the training. The central and local offices of DENR employed the largest share of trainees. Unfortunately, DENR’s personnel office was unable or unwilling to or￾ganize follow-on programs, even though all the materials for the training modules had been de￾veloped by the project. Finally, various publications produced under the project had far-reaching impact. A series of success stories—concise write-ups reporting PMA results for individual IEMP companies— was bundled into a publication (“Philippines Industry’s Response to Waste Minimization”) for DENR and widely circulated. Many in the government, private sector, and international 7 agencies referred to it, both in Manila and dur￾ing site visits. Another series that appears to have received wide distribution is “Pollution Prevention Guidelines,” prepared for several of the industry sectors covered by the project. Institution Building Strong public and private institutions are in￾dispensable to ensuring clean air and water in the Philippines. Among governmental agen￾cies, DENR has the primary mandate of setting standards for emissions and enforcing them. The Department of Trade and Industry has a strong promotional role—facilitating the ex￾pansion of Philippine industry. The Depart￾ment of Science and Technology supports de￾velopment and adoption of technology. There is duplication and conflict among these man￾dates; DENR, in particular, has a role in all these areas. The picture of government institutions in the Philippines is further complicated be￾cause all these agencies work at both the na￾tional and local levels, the latter through local government units. IEMP specifically focused on DENR, a sprawling regulatory bureaucracy responsible for forests, fisheries, watersheds, and protected areas as well as industrial environmental regulation through the Environmental Management Bu￾reau. The leadership of DENR has changed sev￾eral times since the project began, and staff turnover has been considerable. Both within and without DENR there is debate on its proper role in working with industry. Should it sim￾ply wield the stick and be a hard-nosed com￾mand-and-control regulator? Or should it also offer industry carrots? Whatever the outcome of this debate, it should be noted that IEMP as￾sisted DENR mainly at the local level. This was consistent with the gradual shift of responsi￾bility and authority from Manila to the prov￾inces. Technological Change The Industrial Environmental Management Project, as its name suggests, emphasized man￾agement. The PMAs themselves were a new management technique—a simple and system￾atic procedure for assessing opportunities for minimizing waste and preventing pollution. IEMP was concerned mainly with the process of technological change and only indirectly with the specific technologies used. However, it aimed to influence decisions about which technologies would be selected and how fac￾tory managers and workers would apply them. PMAs usually recommended capital investments in equipment that would be cleaner or more modern and efficient. Those recommendations were typically part of a package that included low- and no-cost measures, such as sweeping solids from the shop floor before hosing it dur￾ing cleanup. The appraisals also always recom￾mended establishing an in-plant team to identify additional opportunities for improving manage￾ment techniques and new technologies on an ongoing basis. However, unless the company’s management accepted the concept of waste mini￾mization and encouraged the team to act, few improvements were undertaken. IMPACT Urban and industrial pollution-prevention pro￾grams can have at least three effects: environ￾mental, health, and financial. Under IEMP, waste-minimization efforts often involved op￾erating changes internal to the business. The effects of these changes were almost immedi￾ate and easily measured in physical reductions in pollution and changes in costs and revenues. Reduced water pollution can also affect aquatic animals and plant life. These external effects are difficult to measure and usually are not valued. In some cases, external effects are immediate. In others, they take longer. It may take years, 8 for example, after a factory has stopped pol￾luting a river for aquatic life to return. Activi￾ties that involve institutional strengthening or changes in policies, laws, and regulations take even longer to manifest themselves in ways that can be measured. Environmental Impact IEMP targeted various industries but mainly those discharging organic wastes, especially biochemical oxygen–demanding material. (BOD lowers dissolved oxygen levels to the point where, at the extreme, the water cannot sus￾tain life.) The project also helped reduce sus￾pended solids, which reduce water quality and silt up coral reefs, reducing their productivity. Suspended solids also have adverse effects on agriculture, and high concentrations increase the cost of treating water for human consump￾tion and industrial use. Reducing levels of heavy metals and toxins is important because they have a direct, harmful effect on human health. In addition to reducing loads of these and other pollutants, IEMP identified ways in￾dustries could reduce input requirements, thus saving water and energy. Although the PMAs for individual companies developed data for many of these pollutants, the data were aggregated for only one pollut￾ant (BOD) and for wastewater discharge reduc￾tions (see table 1). The CDIE team estimated re￾ductions for two other pollutants: total sus￾pended solids (TSS) and toxic metals (also re￾ported in table 1). Thus, water use was reduced by an estimated 36.9 million cubic meters per year; BOD material, by an estimated 43.5 mil￾lion kilograms annually; TSS, by 31.7 million kilograms per year; and toxic metals, by 696,000 kilograms per year.* These results can probably be attributed to the project. Of course, similar environmental results would occur if the company’s output declined, because less wa￾ter would be used and less total pollution would be produced. The table shows that a single industry, sugar milling, accounted for the largest share of wa￾ter-use reduction (77 percent), BOD reduction (69 percent), and TSS reduction (31 percent). These reductions were spread rather evenly over all 15 participating firms of the sugar in￾dustry. The second largest source of BOD reduc￾tion occurred in the starch manufacturing in￾dustry, mainly from a single firm. Over 85 per￾cent of total BOD reduction occurred in only 17 of the 143 companies. Thirty of the companies registered no BOD reduction at all, and some of those were in industries characterized as BOD heavy. The veneer and plywood industry ac￾counted for most of the reduction in toxic met￾als (84 percent); however, as previously indi￾cated, data were not available for many of the dirtier industries. A key assumption underlying these annual re￾ductions in pollution load and input use is that plants continue to implement PMA recommenda￾tions each year, even after the project ends. On this score results were mixed. Some companies no longer followed all PMA recommendations. Others were implementing pollution reduction measures that had not been recommended in the PMA and therefore were not captured in the end￾of-project report. Still others appear not to have implemented the recommendations at all, or at least not as planned. Thus, environmental im￾pacts are reported only for the first year of adop￾tion. In addition, the companies interviewed in￾dicated they did not collect the detailed data nec￾essary to measure these results. For example, the PMA for International Pharmaceutical, Inc., stated that additional data would be needed to deter￾mine the pollution reduction load and that “IPI should arrange to obtain this data.” However, IPI * According to interviews with former project staff, BOD load was estimated using standard BOD coefficients for each industry. The team used the World Bank’s Industrial Pollution Projection System to estimate total suspended solids for the industries. Reductions in toxic metal could not be estimated for many of the “dirtier” industries because of insufficient data. 9 indicated to the team that it still does not collect such data. Health Impact The principal goal of IEMP was to improve hu￾man health. However, the project did not con￾centrate on those industries having the most direct impact on health. This is not to suggest the project had no health impact. It did. But it was typically indirect and difficult to measure. The project contributed to significant reduc￾tions in biochemical oxygen demand and total suspended solids, two pollutants that damage aquatic life. If these reductions are sustained, and perhaps replicated, water quality is likely to improve, aquatic life will resume, access to marine protein will increase, and nutrition will improve. Thus, this project would indirectly improve human health since many Philippine communities depend heavily on fish protein. The project also helped reduce air pollutants. For example, interventions at cement plants reduced emissions of suspended particulate matter. The effect of reduced emissions at the local level can be substantial, depending on the direction of the prevailing winds and the prox￾imity of the population to the plant. In addi￾tion, many PMA recommendations identified ways to reduce the demand for energy. Re￾duced energy use in turn contributes to reduced emissions of particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and other pollutants that endanger human health. Unfortunately, the data necessary to establish these linkages and quantify their posi￾tive effects were not available. Financial Impact The key hypothesis underlying waste minimi￾zation and pollution prevention is that many, if not most, of these measures are financially Industry Tuna canning and seafood Desiccated coconut Pulp and paper milling Vegetable and animal oils Sugar milling Distilled spirits Starch manufacturing Seaweed processing Fruit and vegetable canning Hog raising Industrial chemicals Slaughtering Veneer and plywood Soft drinks Tanneries Metal finishing Synthetic resins Cement manufacturing Others Total Water Use Reduction (millions of m3 /yr.) .435 .210 2.671 1.022 28.320 .471 .623 .322 .708 .192 .069 .224 .943 .167 .004 .057 .032 — .453 36.923 BOD Reduction (millions of kg./yr.) 1.010 1.378 .317 .146 29.878 1.398 3.202 .052 1.710 .334 .363 .156 1.755 .001 .005 — — — 1.765 43.470 TSS Reduction (millions of kg./yr.) 2.041 1.513 .511 5.239 9.908 2.513 3.800 .057 1.879 .938 — .178 3.129 .002 .009 — — — — 31.717 Toxic Metal Reduction (kg./yr.) — 614 181 10 — — 6,653 — 762 3,928 94,638 1,836 587,517 — 10 — — — — 696,149 % BOD Reduction 28 15 9 25 44 6 27 8 20 22 30 27 28 12 5 — — — 6 29 Table 1. IEMP Environmental Results, the Philippines, 1992 97 Source: “IEMP End-of-Project Report” (1997), p. 5–3. 10 pany in each of those industries) accounted for most of the net benefits. Cement manufactur￾ing accounted for 33 percent; starch manufac￾turing, 27 percent. A single industry, cement manufacturing, accounted for 57 percent of capital investment. Net benefits are due primarily to increased rev￾enue rather than cost savings. In fact, the re￾ported contribution from increased revenue ($29.9 million) is nearly five times that of cost savings ($6.3 million). However, revenues may have been overestimated, thus inflating the value of net benefits. Interviews with former project staff indicated that revenue calculations included “foregone” revenue to represent how much the company would have lost had it been shut down by a cease-and-desist order. There beneficial to the company that adopts them. This can occur in three ways: first, by lowering input costs (through recovery of raw materials or increased efficiency); second, by lowering compliance and enforcement costs (by reduc￾ing waste and therefore treatment costs or fines); and third, by increasing revenues (through recovery of product or sale of what was formerly waste). Table 2 presents the project’s reported finan￾cial results. Increased revenue, cost savings, and net benefit are reported on an annual ba￾sis. Total net benefit is defined as increased rev￾enue + cost savings – increased costs. Total net benefits for the first year, when the exchange rate was 25.5 pesos to the dollar, were estimated at $32.4 million. Two industries (and one com￾Industry Tuna canning and seafood Desiccated coconut Pulp and paper milling Vegetable and animal oils Sugar milling Distilled spirits Starch manufacturing Seaweed processing Fruit and vegetable canning Hog raising Industrial chemicals Slaughtering Veneer and plywood Soft drinks Tanneries Metal finishing Synthetic resins Cement manufacturing Others Total Millions of US$a Millions of US$b Capital Investment 28.989 4.464 26.239 7.328 61.597 82.379 3.168 12.713 10.442 23.674 .457 .541 17.460 5.037 .674 5.383 .752 381.948 1.400 674.645 26.457 16.866 Increased Revenue 64.184 21.150 5.614 14.012 44.980 — 218.442 22.522 .826 .234 4.467 1.608 80.250 — .003 — .088 277.400 6.203 761.983 29.882 19.050 Cost Savings 6.783 11.599 14.499 2.706 23.376 12.654 .966 20.482 2.867 24.112 5.478 1.167 11.946 6.208 .303 9.728 2.444 .090 4.506 161.914 6.350 4.048 Total Net Benefit 57.832 30.976 16.840 14.721 54.707 12.229 218.827 42.466 2.707 23.811 9.917 2.566 35.496 5.959 .274 9.387 1.642 276.190 10.087 826.634 32.417 20.666 % of Net Benefits 7 4 2 2 7 2 27 5 0 3 1 0 4 1 0 1 0 33 1 100 a $1 = 25.5 pesos (1992 exchange rate). b $1 = 40.0 pesos (1999 exchange rate). Sources: “IEMP End-of-Project Report” (1997), p. 5–3 (for capital investment and total net benefit data); Eighteenth Quarterly Progress Report (1997), appendix C (for revenue and cost savings data). Table 2. IEMP Financial Results, the Philippines, 1992 97 (millions of pesos) 11 are two problems with including foregone rev￾enue. First, both DENR and industry represen￾tatives indicated that the average plant shut￾down in response to a cease-and-desist order lasted only a few days. By contrast, IEMP calcu￾lations assumed it lasted for a relatively long time. Moreover, many plants under the threat of shutdown are issued temporary lifting or￾ders so that they never shut down. Second, the correct measure of the effect of a cease-and￾desist order on a business is forgone profit, not forgone revenue. Excluding the two companies in the cement industry and the four in the starch industry, net benefits fall from $20.7 million to $8.3 million at the 1999 exchange rate. The net benefit to the average business is more than halved from $145,000 to $61,000. More telling is that only six firms (4 percent of the total) account for 60 percent of total net benefits. Thus, aggregate data mask what is happening in individual in￾dustries and individual plants within those in￾dustries. Another problem with interpreting the finan￾cial impact of the project is that the financial data, like the environmental data, appear to be estimated rather than actual. In some cases, data for revenue, operating costs, and cost sav￾ings are identical to PMA estimates. This sug￾gests they do not reflect actual plant level ex￾perience. In other cases, reported results are in￾consistent with information obtained during plant interviews. For example, neither the pol￾lution management appraisal for International Pharmaceutical, Inc., nor the interview at IPI in￾dicated increased revenue resulting from PMA interventions. However, the IEMP performance￾monitoring matrix indicated additional rev￾enue totaling 540,000 pesos per year ($13,500 in 1999 prices)—large enough to turn a loss into a gain. Experience has shown that PMAs con￾ducted by nonindustry experts routinely un￾dervalue costs and overvalue benefits. This fac￾tor, coupled with the use of estimated results rather than actual results, brings into question the reliability of the data. Finally, economic events and factors exogenous to the project can affect BOD load. During the period of project implementation, there was sig￾nificant variation in industrial output in the Philippines and, therefore, variation in water use. These changes can be dramatic. For ex￾ample, sugarcane production decreased by 28 percent from 1994 to 1995, and export levels fell for most commodities from 1995 to 1996. It is impossible to determine how much of the decline in BOD reported in table 1 was due to lower industrial output and exports (and there￾fore lower water use) and how much was due to IEMP interventions. These measurement problems notwithstand￾ing, the reported data indicate that the project has been a financial success. However, as indi￾cated in the next section, many of the compa￾nies that benefited financially from implement￾ing waste-minimization measures have stopped using them. Moreover, these measures have not spread to non-IEMP firms. Why should this be the case? The answer probably lies with 1) the unreliability and poor quality of the data, 2) the disproportionate number of companies selected for IEMP that had poor pollution-com￾pliance records, and 3) adverse macroeconomic conditions and other external problems. PROGRAM PERFORMANCE Program performance is normally assessed in terms of 1) effectiveness, 2) whether benefits were sustained after donor funding was termi￾nated, and 3) the extent to which activities were replicated beyond the project. Effectiveness Effectiveness is a measure of how appropriate an intervention was in meeting program ob￾jectives. Were benefits significant? Were they 12 generated through a strategy that worked with the right people? Was the approach the best way to use USAID resources to get the job done? The job in this case was promoting sustainable economic growth, reducing environmental degradation, and improving public health. The project concentrated on small and medium￾size industrial firms. This was a good choice, because larger companies are typically already aware of the importance of waste minimiza￾tion and clean production. They are often con￾nected to multinational corporations and the export market, which makes them savvier. Of￾ten they are already using modern, less-pollut￾ing technology. In addition, they are highly vis￾ible, making them easy tar￾gets for environmental con￾trols. By contrast, smaller firms often lack the technology, resources, and knowledge to deal with pollution. They are often in “dirty indus￾tries” located outside the major cities. The World Bank’s Metropolitan Envi￾ronmental Improvement Program covered compa￾nies only in Metro Manila, and the USAID–ASEAN Environmental Improve￾ment Project covered “leader” companies from several industries such as iron and steel. Small and medium-size firms outside Manila were an ideal target for IEMP. They were not receiving assistance and could effectively use new ap￾proaches to reduce pollution. The pollution-reduction component of the project centered on pollution management ap￾praisals. PMAs were allocated 30 percent of to￾tal project resources, or $4 million. Assuming the $4 million was shared equally among the 143 participating companies, each PMA cost $28,000, on average. As noted already, finan￾cial benefits for all companies (excluding the six in the cement and starch industries) were high enough ($61,000 per company, on aver￾age) to justify this cost. Implementation of PMA recommendations also generated a 29 percent reduction in biochemical oxygen demand. That was significant. But one of the project objectives was to improve health, and while high BOD levels discolor wa￾ter, give it a bad taste, and can kill fish, they do not directly affect human health. By contrast, heavy metals, harmful bacteria, and industrial chemicals are a health problem, but changes in levels of these pollutants were not measured. High BOD levels may indicate high levels of other pollutants, thus serving as a proxy for pollutants affect￾ing human health. But it is not clear if that was the case in the Philippines. IEMP’s capacity-building com￾ponent provided pollution￾prevention training for 2,600 people, mainly staff from gov￾ernment, industry, NGOs, and local government units. The training helped make it pos￾sible to complete PMAs, draft environmental directives, and improve environmental monitoring. IEMP was a pilot effort to introduce pollution management appraisals to the Philippines. A pilot can be expensive, but if the new tech￾niques are widely adopted, sustained, and rep￾licated, then the initial investment is justified. If a pilot does not expand and take hold be￾yond the original companies, it is often inef￾fective. Many of the businesses that volun￾teered for PMAs had environmental compliance problems. They were among the Philippines’ “dirty dozen” or so heaviest polluters, and the one-year waiver of pollution fines was a major reason they were eager to join the program. “High BOD levels may indicate high levels of other pollutants, thus serving as a proxy for pollutants affecting human health.” 13 According to DENR and trade group represen￾tatives, these firms were often lax in maintain￾ing PMA interventions. In one region, 3 out of 14 PMA companies were out of business shortly after IEMP ended, and half of the remaining companies ended up in violation of pollution regulations. Sustainability and Replication Sustainability concerns the extent to which a program continues to deliver benefits after de￾velopment assistance ends. The IEMP project paper makes a strong case for the need to curb industrial pollution in the Philippines but does not dwell on sustainability. The underlying as￾sumption is that businesses will continue to use pollution management appraisals and adopt PMA recommendations because of the financial benefits realized. In 1994, however, an independent evaluation concluded that neither enhanced business prof￾itability nor the demand created by IEMP ca￾pacity building was likely to keep PMA recom￾mendations going strong. The evaluators pointed out that because sustainability had not been stressed in the original design, “options for project sustainability were quite limited.” They cited potential problems with baseline data for the PMAs and no real increased capac￾ity within DENR to sustain project benefits— once IEMP ended. They offered a few recom￾mendations to improve PMAs such as conduct￾ing more complete and verifiable appraisals. In 1997 the USAID-supported consulting firm that implemented the project identified several indirect indicators suggesting that “the benefits of IEMP are being sustained, or are sustainable.” These indicators included DENR’s plan to moni￾tor PMA companies, requiring PMAs as one con￾dition for lifting a cease-and-desist order, an￾nual industrial recognition awards for compa￾nies showing significant waste-minimization progress, pilot-testing a pollution charge sys￾tem based on user fees at the Laguna Lake De￾velopment Authority, and plans by two Phil￾ippine development banks to offer concessional rates for loans to support clean production. But the same IEMP implementing contractor also raised concerns that “the limited capacity of DENR may prevent full support of PMAs at the regional level, delay effective utilization of IEMP training programs, and slow [recommended] policy reforms.” The CDIE team examined the extent to which pollution management appraisals continued to be used by visiting a sample of former IEMP companies, interviewing regional and local DENR officials, and meeting with representa￾tives of a wide range of Philippine trade asso￾ciations, professional groups, and other key in￾dividuals. The team visited seven sites cover￾ing a mix of industries in two locations: Cebu (Visayas) and Davao (Mindanao), two of the five geographic locations where PMAs were highly concentrated. The site visits revealed a mixed picture about the sustainability of PMA benefits following project phasedown. Some companies simply did not adopt the PMA recommendations. Oth￾ers adopted the recommendations initially but later dropped them. A few companies had sus￾pended or closed plant operations, making a determination impossible. There was little or no evidence that any business had conducted additional PMAs after the end of the project. In￾depth interviews uncovered a range of reasons: a natural resistance to change plant operations that already “seem to work well”; the time and effort required to monitor and collect baseline data to “sell” the PMA approach to plant own￾ers; the effort required to keep PMA recommen￾dations in force; and lack of support by com￾pany owners. Since most PMA recommenda￾tions at the seven sites were either no or low cost (rather than capital intensive), the sustainability of more demanding PMA recom￾mendations was considered extremely low. 14 Success was also dependent on replication by non-IEMP companies. After all, IEMP was only a demonstration project. With over 10,000 “brown sector” companies in the Philippines (many of them small enterprises), it was clear that replication of the PMA approach beyond the 143 participating firms would be needed. Plant interviews at all seven IEMP sites consis￾tently described replication as either nonexist￾ent or negligible. At a number of sites, plant managers were asked directly if they would share PMA information with others, and the general response was “why would we?” Some plant managers regarded the PMA as propri￾etary. Others indicated there was no real forum where this might be discussed. At one of the larger meat-processing plants in Davao, the plant manager questioned why replication was expected. He thought plant managers might not be willing to divulge PMA results with other plant managers—since that would signify a major compliance shortcoming or perhaps an impending pollution cease-and-desist order. A low spread effect might indeed be expected if companies participated in IEMP mainly to avoid a cease-and-desist order. Local DENR staff in Cebu and Davao knew of no replication of PMA recommendations in their regions. No replication was occurring through word of mouth, local seminars, or other formal or informal means. These findings were con￾sistent with the views of professional and trade groups as well as Filipino environmental prac￾titioners. Interviews with those groups also revealed a similar—almost uniform—judg￾ment concerning weak sustainability. It is clear that sustainability by IEMP compa￾nies and replication by non-IEMP companies were extremely low—much lower than ex￾pected. Weak sustainability and replication only two years after project phasedown does not bode well for the future. Low sustainability and replication in the face of high initial adoption rates casts doubt on a broad assumption underlying the PMA approach—that is, it appears that neither the financial benefits resulting from PMA recommendations nor gov￾ernment and private sector demand for PMAs generated sustainability. But why? There is probably no single explanatory factor. However, the most likely explanations are as fol￾lows: the cost savings estimated in the PMAs were not convincing to plant owners and business managers. Perhaps real costs were underesti￾mated or benefits were overestimated, or both. Even if cost savings were estimated accurately, the estimates failed to take into account uncer￾tainties and risks associated with future needs or the unique business climate. Cost savings aside, the company was not serious about changing operations in the first place but was simply buy￾ing time to avoid compliance problems. Other explanations include a natural resistance among some plant operators (even when shown real cost savings) to change their busi￾ness practices: “If it works, why change it?” After all, there may be a strong profit incentive for the owner, but not necessarily for the plant manager or the shop floor workers—who will have to implement changes on a day-to-day basis. Alternatively, the plant manager or owner may not know the consultants or may doubt their credibility or industry competence. Finally, there remains a general reluctance by some Philippine businesses to adopt untried measures (even potentially cost-savings ones) as long as they are not facing compliance is￾sues or an uncertain business climate. LESSONS LEARNED In the Philippines 143 industrial companies re￾portedly invested a combined total of nearly $27 million in waste minimization and other pollution-reduction measures under the Indus￾trial Environmental Management Project. 15 These investments resulted in annual net ben￾efits of $33 million to participating companies. At the same time, water pollution (measured by biochemical oxygen demand) decreased by 29 percent. Most companies realized increased profits and efficiency, and many reduced their waste volume and improved their compliance with government BOD pollution standards— not to mention, their corporate image—dem￾onstrating that industry-led economic growth and environmental protection can be compat￾ible. What lessons emerge from this assess￾ment? 1. Pollution management appraisals. PMAs can be effective in helping reduce pollution at the com￾pany level. Pollution management appraisals (assessments of the production process) identify opportuni￾ties for businesses to minimize, reclaim, and reuse industrial waste and to use cleaner tech￾nologies. Companies are motivated to adopt PMA recommendations by the prospect of re￾duced production costs and increased rev￾enues. The country benefits from lower pollu￾tion levels and better resource allocation. If conducted by industry specialists, rather than by generalists, PMAs are likely to have greater credibility with senior managers and techni￾cians. It is more cost-efficient to conduct PMAs industry by industry rather than randomly among industries, because industry-specific expertise can be provided all at one time. That approach also helps strengthen relations with established trade associations. PMA recommen￾dations—including what they can and cannot achieve—must be explained carefully to the company’s managers. After all, PMAs are not a panacea, nor can they guarantee compliance with environmental standards. 2. Technology. Companies are likely to adopt low￾or no-cost techniques that have an immediate effect on pollution reduction and cost savings rather than measures that require a large capital outlay and a long payback period. Most companies are more likely to adopt clean production techniques and waste-minimiza￾tion measures that are simple and that will save resources and generate profits relatively quickly. They will make large capital invest￾ments only when they are building a new factory or introducing a new production tech￾nology. 3. Regulation. Cost savings may not be sufficient to persuade companies to implement and maintain waste-minimization and pollution-prevention pro￾grams. Command-and-control measures—such as en￾vironmental regulations and pollution stan￾dards—are effective if strictly enforced and if penalties are severe. Often this is not the case in the Philippines. Monitoring and enforcement are lax because of insufficient resources in the Department of Environment and Natural Re￾sources. Many businesses go without routine monitoring, so the probability of getting caught is slim. Moreover, cease-and-desist orders are issued only for the most egregious, obvious offenses; and penalties and fines are relatively low. Nonetheless, the cease-and-desist order is an important tool. Both regulation and cost sav￾ings are important in motivating companies to take action. 4. Market-based instruments. Market-based in￾struments for pollution prevention are an impor￾tant complement to command-and-control ap￾proaches. Market-based instruments use economic incen￾tives to influence a company’s behavior by en￾couraging the company to act in its own self￾interest. Imposing pollution charges, for ex￾ample, on companies that discharge effluents into the environment effectively internalizes the costs of their pollution. IEMP concentrated on market-based instruments. 16 5. Institutionalization. While PMAs can help a company save money, increase revenues, and reduce pollution, a way must be found to institutionalize the process to provide continuity once the project ends. In the Philippines, continuity was weak. Do￾nors might improve it by working more closely with trade associations, a government agency, or private companies that have a financial in￾terest in waste minimization. If a government regulatory agency is selected, businesses most likely to benefit are those facing compliance problems. Conversely, if trade associations are selected, most beneficiary companies are likely to be progressive and successful. 6. Sustainability. A pilot project is an excellent way to show companies the benefits of waste mini￾mization, but the project needs to ensure that ben￾efits are sustainable. IEMP assumed that waste-minimization tech￾niques, once adopted, would generate substan￾tial benefits and that the company would sus￾tain these techniques over time. That was not always the case. Contrary to expectations, some companies may not have realized the financial benefits estimated in the pollution manage￾ment appraisal, thereby jeopardizing the cred￾ibility of the overall process. Other companies faced shutdown orders for violating environ￾mental standards shortly after participating in IEMP. Senior management of other companies may not have been committed to waste mini￾mization. PMAs often were not accorded appro￾priate follow-up. Sustainability seems to take root most often in large international companies—where corpo￾rate image counts and managers reinforce the goal of cleaner production and pollution pre￾vention. Constant support and vigilance from top company management may be the key to sustainability. 7. Replication. Replication of pollution-prevention measures is normally not in the best interests of in￾dividual businesses that have already reduced their costs by successfully adopting such measures. In a dynamic private sector, firms compete to win market share and increase profits. Gener￾ally, they will not voluntarily share informa￾tion with their competitors about ways to mini￾mize costs. That makes replication difficult. Replication may be improved by working not just with individual businesses (the retail ap￾proach) but also with industry trade associa￾tions (the wholesale approach). Trade associa￾tions can be neutral in sharing information among their members. 8. Measuring results. Sustainability within the company and replication beyond it depend on the availability of reliable data and information. Data collection is essential to establish a baseline against which to monitor progress and measure results. Involving factory staff in col￾lecting and analyzing data has advantages be￾cause management is more likely to believe, and therefore use, its own data and analysis. However, collecting data for inappropriate in￾dicators will yield irrelevant results. An impor￾tant goal of IEMP was to improve human health by reducing water pollution. But the pollutant that was measured, biochemical oxygen de￾mand, does not directly affect human health. To order paper copies of this report, PN–ACG–611, please contact USAID’s Development Experience Clearinghouse, 1611 North Kent Street, Arlington, VA 22209. Or you can phone (703) 351–4006, or fax (703) 351–4039, or e-mail: docorder@dec.cdie.org. To access from the Internet, go to www.dec.org/usaid_eval Editorial and production services provided by Conwal Incorporated. U.S. Agency for International Development Washington