Ministry of Education and Sports Final Core Report Measuring Learning Achievement 2010: Language and Maths in P4 UNITY Project, Uganda With support from USAID For Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International March 2011 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 2 Contents Acknowledgments ................................................................................................... 3 Acronyms ............................................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 5 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 9 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 9 Findings ...............................................................................................................11 Recommendations ................................................................................................31 Annex 1: Sampling and Testing ............................................................................34 Annex 2: Panel Analysis ........................................................................................44 References ............................................................................................................49 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 3 Acknowledgments The MLA (Measuring Learning Achievement) exercise described in this report was conducted by a number of people without whom the quality of the assessments, as well as the implementation of the MLA exercise in general, would not have been possible. In particular, the authors would like to extend their sincerest appreciation to Renuka Pillay, Chief-of-Party for the UNITY project, for providing overall guidance and in-country support; to Sandhya Bandrinath and Roseline Fodouop Tekeu, Project Manager and Project Associate, respectively, for providing management and logistical support from Creative Associates’ home office; to the National Curriculum Development Center (NCDC), especially Baale Remegious, a Curriculum Specialist, for its technical oversight and assistance; and to the teachers, content experts, supervisors, data assistants, and others who gave generously of their time to produce what resulted in assessments of extremely high quality. And again, in this final phase of the program evaluation, a special note of thanks goes to Dickson Turyareeba, a Research and Policy Analyst with the UNITY project, who continued to be available at all times in Uganda to ensure the smooth functioning of each step of a large, complex, and time-bound process. Sincerely, The Staff and Consultants of School-to-School International For Creative Associates International, Inc. March 2011 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 4 Acronyms Creative Creative Associates International, Inc. CC Coordinating Center MLA Measuring Learning Achievement MoES Ministry of Education and Sports NCDC National Curriculum Development Center PIASCY Presidential Initiative on AIDS Strategy for Communication to Youth PMP Project Monitoring Plan PTC STS Primary Teachers’ College School-to-School International TDMS Teacher Development Management System UNEB Uganda National Examinations Board UNITY Uganda Initiative for TDMS and PIASCY USAID United States Agency for International Development CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 5 Executive Summary Overview The Uganda Measuring Learning Achievement (MLA) is an assessment of pupil achievement conducted for the USAID-funded Uganda Initiative for TDMS and PIASCY (UNITY) Project.1 The purpose of MLA is to determine the extent to which pupil learning has changed with the implementation of the new curriculum launched in 2008. The first UNITY MLA was conducted in 2007, when UNITY, in collaboration with the Uganda National Examinations Board (UNEB), the National Curriculum Development Center (NCDC), and the Ministry of Education and Sport (MoES), tested pupils in 2 districts in each of 4 regions to create a baseline in literacy (language) and numeracy (maths) at the P2 level - the last year in which the old curriculum was used at that level. Subsequent tests were conducted in the same schools and additional ones in 2008, 2009, and 2010. Design MLA 2010 measured P4 pupils’ achievement in literacy and numeracy in English. This permitted two analyses: 1. Of the first cohort of pupils (Cohort 1) in P4 compared to the second cohort of pupils (Cohort 2) in P4. The Cohort 1 pupils started in P1 in 2006 and then progressed to P4 in 2009; this was the last group with instruction in the old curriculum. The Cohort 2 pupils were in P1 in 2007 and then progressed to P4 in 2010; this was the first group with instruction in the new curriculum. 2. Of Cohort 1 and Cohort 2 pupils in experimental and control groups. In Cohort 1, both the experimental and control groups received instruction in the old curriculum. In Cohort 2, the two groups received instruction in the new curriculum though the experimental group’s instruction was mostly in local languages while the control group’s instruction was in English. The purpose of Cohort 1 was to set a baseline during the last year of the old curriculum. The purpose of Cohort 2 was to examine the first group with the new curriculum. Since the new curriculum was implemented nationwide, it was not possible to design a study with schools placed into each group at random. The control group was actually a comparison group comprised of private schools, for the 1 Creative Associates International, Inc. is the prime contractor for the UNITY Project. Creative engaged the services of School-to-School International to implement the MLA from 2007 to 2010. This is the final report. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 6 most part, and a few public schools in which the new curriculum was implemented in English. Implementation Starting with MLA 2007, pupil achievement tests were administered to Cohort 1, both the experimental and control groups, in P2 through P4. All of these tests were constructed in English, since these pupils were provided instruction at all grade levels under the old curriculum in English. The project then created forms of the same test in 6 local languages for P2 and P3 for implementation with Cohort 2, along with interview instruments for Head Teachers and P4 teachers. For each test administration, local teams scored the tests and entered test and interview data, all of which was sent to the U.S. for analysis by School-to-School International (STS). MLA report writing was subsequently conducted by STS. Key Findings Several key findings from the MLA 2010 emerged from the analysis of the pupil achievement testing results and the interview results: 1. Clear trends in overall performance -- the cross-sectional analysis in P4 of Cohort 1 2009 vs. Cohort 2 2010, as well as the Cohort 2 panel analysis that tracked pupils from P2 in 2008 to P4 in 2010, showed similar results. The gains in the control schools were fairly consistent from P2 to P4. However, in the experimental schools, there were larger gains from P2 to P3 when using the new curriculum and then a large drop-off from P3 to P4 also when using the new curriculum. The latter change was most likely due to difficulties on the part of pupils and their teachers with the transition from local language to English. The encouraging part is that pupils made much progress when receiving instruction in local language with the new curriculum. The discouraging part was that these same pupils gave back most of their gains. The hope is that the pupils and their teachers can build on their positive early experiences with local language as they progress into P5 and P6, so that Uganda can follow the literature showing that pupils often experience a drop-off during the language transition year but that they recoup their gains in the upper primary grades. 2 2. Smaller drop-off in maths than in language -- the decline in scores in P4 was less in maths than in language for the experimental group. In other words, the 2 Benson, C. (2004). The importance of mother tongue-based schooling for educational quality. Paris: UNESCO. (For the Education for all global monitoring report, 2005). CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 7 pupils had less difficulty with the transition from local language to English when learning maths as opposed to English. This is likely due to the similarities in maths in local language and English, at least for numbers and symbols. With language, however, almost everything is different in the two languages – words, pronunciation, accents, phonetics, grammar, syntax, etc. 3. Correlations between scores and other factors – disaggregated data revealed that there were disparities in scores based on region, pupil age, repetition status, availability of books, and mother’s literacy. There is room for improvement among pupils who scored lower due to these factors, so that compensatory programs may have chances of success. 4. Gender equity in scores – one factor that did not generally correlate with achievement was gender. It is encouraging that this trend is evident in Uganda, as it is in many other countries, and it is likely due to the long-term presence of strong girls’ education programs. 5. Enthusiasm for the new curriculum – most of the teachers and Head Teachers said that they prefer the new curriculum, in spite of difficulties they reported with insufficient training and materials (see below). They said that instruction in local languages was more practical in terms of building on children’s prior knowledge and was more consistent with the children’s environments. 6. Demand for more training and materials – the interviews showed that the training on the new curriculum was too short and that there were not enough instructional materials in local languages. Also mentioned was difficulty in implementing classroom-based continuous assessment due to large class sizes, which is an issue that could also be addressed through training and materials. 7. Need for additional data – the story of the implementation of the new curriculum does not end with P4. It would be very helpful to have additional data at P5 and P6 in order to follow the trends seen in other countries on local language learning and transition into the international language. This trend could be expected in Uganda, particularly given the strong gains shown by the pupils from P2 to P3 and their proven ability to learn if they understand the language. The learning concepts and styles that the pupils benefitted from while receiving instruction in their local language should “kick in” again as they transition through P4 and progress to P5 to P6. However, the only way to know whether the transition successfully takes place in Uganda is through the collection of additional pupil achievement data at the upper primary grades. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 8 Summary of Key Recommendations Most of the key recommendations from the study emerged in the key findings and they have been mentioned above, but this summary elaborates on them as follows: 1. More teacher and head teacher training -- in light of concerns raised by teachers and Head Teachers about the training being too short in duration, more training would likely strengthen the outcomes of the reform. This is similar to trends in the U.S. and other countries where the training needs to be of a long enough duration and intensity in order to have both immediate and lasting effects. However, the training should be targeted towards issues such as improved teaching in local languages and mitigating difficulties in transitioning to English. Training should also reinforce teachers’ understanding and practice in the critical area of classroom-based continuous pupil assessment. 2. More teacher and pupil materials -- strategic procurement and use of materials would likely benefit teachers and pupils alike. It is recommended that the MoES looks seriously at investments in specific materials and books, including additional teachers’ guides and better translations into local languages, and that a program be developed to assist teachers and Head Teachers with strategies for effective use of materials. 3. Development of strategies to reduce disparities – as seen by successful girls’ education programs, it is possible to design and implement successful strategies to reduce disparities in achievement due to factors such as region, pupil age, repetition, and availability of materials. 4. Research on achievement trends and language of instruction -- it would be useful to conduct additional studies of the reasons behind the large gains in achievement when pupils are learning in local languages, and the pupils’ difficulties in their transition from local language to English. Another issue to examine is the existence of multiple local languages in schools and the kinds of support teachers, Head Teachers and parents need in these situations. 5. Additional data in higher grade levels -- it is worth reiterating the need for follow-up studies of the pupils as they progress from P4 to P5 and P6. Clearly, these data would provide a wealth of information that could lead to improved implementation of the new curriculum and additional strategies. This in turn could help pupils with the transition from local language to English as the medium of instruction, in both language and maths. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 9 Introduction The Uganda Initiative for TDMS and PIASCY (UNITY) Project is a USAID-funded initiative implemented by Creative Associates International, Inc. (Creative). The main goals of the UNITY Project (UNITY) are the improvement of teaching, learning, and health for primary school children throughout Uganda. One aspect of UNITY focuses on pre-service and in-service training in order to support the Ministry of Education and Sports (MoES) in its implementation of the new national curriculum. UNITY’s Project Monitoring Plan identifies the measure of the success of these efforts in the following indicator: At least 70 percent of surveyed children demonstrate higher levels of learning achievement as a result of pre- and in-service training activities. In order to demonstrate that higher levels of learning achievement have occurred as a result of project interventions, UNITY initiated a pupil testing effort in 2007, called Measuring Learning Achievement (MLA). This report presents the results of the fourth test administration, or MLA 2010, which was conducted in the field September/October 2010 with P4 pupils in all four geographic regions of Uganda and through Head Teacher and P4 teacher interviews conducted in October 2010. This document constitutes the first part of the report, or the “Core Report.” It begins by describing the design of the exercise, and then presents the findings from the 2010 MLA, followed by a discussion of salient findings and recommendations for future MLA exercises and curriculum implementation. In the annexes can be found a more detailed description of the assessment’s methodology, including sampling, test development, data collection, scoring, data entry, and analysis. The second part of the report, called the “Technical Report,” presents additional tables, charts, and explanations of more technical aspects of the exercise. Methodology The UNITY MLA was designed to consist of four rounds of tests to be conducted from 2007 to 2010 to demonstrate change over time for two cohorts of pupils. In terms of instruction, the difference between the two cohorts was that Cohort 1, which was assessed from 2007 to 2009, was the last group of pupils to use the old curriculum, from P2 (2007) to P4 (2009). In contrast, Cohort 2, which was assessed CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 10 from 2008 to 2010, used the new curriculum, from P2 (2008) to P4 (2010). The old curriculum used English as the main medium of instruction at all grade levels. The new curriculum was designed to use local languages as the main medium of instruction up to P3, with a transition to English as the main medium of instruction starting in P4. For Cohort 1, all testing took place in English, from P2 to P4, in language and maths, for both the experimental and control groups. The control group was comprised of pupils in schools (mostly private) that also used the old curriculum. For Cohort 2, testing for the experimental group took place in local languages in P2 and P3, and in English in P4. The tests were the same as the English-based tests used in Cohort 1 except for the translation. Six local languages were used in the testing in the four regions. Again, a control group used pupils in schools (mostly private) where English (under the new curriculum) was still being used as the medium of instruction. Figure 1: MLA design, 2007 – 2010 As in previous years, the tests were administered in September and October, reaching 2,276 P4 pupils in 116 schools, with a sample of approximately 20 pupils per school (Table 1). CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 11 Table 1: Number of schools and P4 pupils tested in 2010 Schools Pupils Region Experimental Control Total Experimental Control Total Central 21 9 30 419 180 599 East 21 8 29 420 132 552 North 20 9 29 399 181 580 West 21 7 28 405 140 545 Total 83 33 116 1,643 633 2,276 To provide greater insight on the implementation of the new curriculum, interviews were conducted with Head Teachers and P4 teachers in October 2010. The interviews covered key domains such as the teacher training and the content of the new curriculum. From the 116 schools, 100 Head Teachers and 107 P4 teachers participated in the interviews. For information concerning sampling, test construction, administration, scoring, data entry and analysis, see Annex 1. Findings Five types of analyses were conducted for the MLA 2010:  A summary of P4 pupil performance for 2010;  A summary of the Head Teacher and teacher interviews for 2010;  A comparative analysis of P4 pupil performance from 2009 to 2010 in experimental and control schools;  An analysis of progress for Cohort 2 from P3 2009 to P4 2010; and  An analysis of progress for a subsample of Cohort 2 (panel design) – from P2 2008 to P3 2009 to P4 2010. The results of these analyses are presented in the following sections. P4 Pupil Performance for 2010 This summary refers to pupils in both experimental and control schools (combined). The results are disaggregated by demographic and other variables. Geography By region, pupil scores in both language and maths were significantly higher in the Western Region than in the other three regions. Results in the East Region were CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 12 significantly lower in language and maths. Note that only two districts per region were sampled (Figures 2 and 3). By district, maths and language scores in Mbarara were significantly higher than all other districts, with Kumi district reporting the lowest scores both in language and in maths (Tables 4 and 5). Figure 2: P4 mean language scores by region Figure 3: P4 mean maths scores by region Table 2: P4 mean language scores by region Table 3: P4 mean maths scores by region Region Mean Std. Deviation N Central 24.79 11.20 599 East 19.83 14.21 552 North 22.63 15.41 580 West 30.54 12.54 545 Total 24.42 13.96 2276 Region Mean Std. Deviation N Central 21.18 10.23 599 East 16.91 11.28 552 North 20.20 13.36 580 West 25.58 11.45 545 Total 20.95 12.01 2276 Table 4: P4 mean language scores by district Table 5: P4 mean maths scores by district District Mean Std. Deviation N Gulu 20.02 14.33 280 Kabale 26.24 13.41 260 Kumi 15.86 12.14 257 Lira 25.07 15.99 300 Mbarara 34.47 10.24 285 Mpigi 24.08 10.26 299 Mukono 25.50 12.04 300 Soroti 23.28 14.97 295 Total 24.42 13.96 2276 Region Mean Std. Deviation N Gulu 17.24 12.13 280 Kabale 22.72 11.77 260 Kumi 13.95 10.81 257 Lira 22.96 13.87 300 Mbarara 28.18 10.51 285 Mpigi 21.15 9.93 299 Mukono 21.21 10.54 300 Soroti 19.48 11.06 295 Total 20.95 12.01 2276 Language at Home Pupils who said their first language was Runyankole scored significantly higher than other groups in both language and maths while the pupils from the Acoli and CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 13 the Ateso language groups scored the lowest (Tables 6 and 7). Table 6: P4 mean language scores by language at home Language at home Mean SD N Acoli 19.97 14.27 257 Ateso 19.96 14.08 518 Lango 24.01 15.97 303 Luganda 24.68 11.15 586 Rukiga 25.88 12.78 293 Runyankole 36.01 9.79 227 Other 28.29 15.40 92 Total 24.42 13.96 2276 Table 7: P4 mean maths scores by language at home Language at home Mean SD N Acoli 16.96 11.88 257 Ateso 17.06 11.34 518 Lango 22.12 13.78 303 Luganda 20.93 10.04 586 Rukiga 22.35 11.55 293 Runyankole 29.63 10.40 227 Other 24.29 12.78 92 Total 20.95 12.01 2276 Age Pupils under 10 years old performed significantly better than pupils 10 and older in both language and maths (Tables 8 and 9). Table 8: P4 mean language scores by age group Age Mean Std. Deviation N Under 10 Years Old 34.29 12.44 286 10 Years Old 26.88 13.97 717 11 Years Old 23.04 13.47 483 12 Years Old 20.45 13.07 434 12+ Years Old 18.97 11.47 305 Total 24.66 13.97 2225 Table 9: P4 mean maths scores by age group Age Mean Std. Deviation N Under 10 Years Old 26.87 11.25 286 10 Years Old 22.63 12.37 717 11 Years Old 19.95 11.61 483 12 Years Old 18.76 11.54 434 12+ Years Old 17.78 10.73 305 Total 21.17 12.01 2225 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 14 Repetition Non-repeating pupils performed significantly better in language and maths than repeating ones (Table 10). Table 10: P4 mean language and maths scores by repeater status Subject Repeater N Mean Std. Deviation Language Yes 289 18.89 11.72 No 1935 25.59 14.02 Maths Yes 289 17.26 10.71 No 1935 21.80 12.05 Home Environment Pupils with books at home (Table 11) and with mothers who read (Table 12) performed significantly better in language and maths than those without books or whose mothers do not read. Table 11: P4 mean language and maths scores by books at home Subject Books at home N Mean Std. Deviation Language Yes 1662 27.65 13.58 No 564 16.04 11.05 Maths Yes 1662 23.37 11.86 No 564 14.80 9.89 Table 12: P4 mean language and maths scores by mother who reads Subject Mother reads N Mean Std. Deviation Language Yes 1485 27.75 13.96 No 732 18.76 11.70 Maths Yes 1485 23.46 12.17 No 732 16.74 10.25 Gender The difference in mean language scores between girls and boys was very small and not statistically significant. The difference in mean maths scores was also small, though it did show statistically significant results in favor of the boys (Table 13). Analyses disaggregated by region show that the difference between boys and girls in maths was statistically significant (in favor of boys) only in the Northern region. When disaggregated by language at home, only Acoli boys had significantly better results than Acoli girls in maths (not shown). CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 15 Table 13: P4 mean language and maths scores by sex of the pupil Subject Sex N Mean Std. Deviation Language Girl 1136 24.43 14.06 Boy 1140 24.40 13.87 Maths Girl 1136 20.09 11.77 Boy 1140 21.80 12.20 Experimental vs. Control Groups Scores in P4 pupils in control schools (following the new curriculum in English) were significantly higher than those in experimental schools (following the new curriculum but primarily in local languages up to P3 and then transitioning to English in P4), both in language and maths (Table 14). Table 14: P4 mean language and maths scores by group Subject Group N Mean Std. Deviation Language Control 633 38.87 8.01 Experimental 1643 18.85 11.56 Maths Control 633 32.42 9.30 Experimental 1643 16.53 9.82 Correlations In all, 107 P4 teachers were interviewed and provided information on their years of experience, qualifications, class sizes, and the availability of instructional materials. Based on this information, as well as 100 Head Teacher interviews, correlations were found between P4 pupil performance and these characteristics:  Number of male teachers in school: A statistically significant and positive relation was found between the number of male teachers in a given school and P4 language and maths achievement; however, no significant relation was found between pupil scores and the teacher’s sex for a given class.  Library in a school: There were no significant differences in P4 scores in language or maths when there is a library in the school (Table 15). Table 15: Mean achievement by library in the school Subject Existence of library N Mean Std. Deviation Language Yes 66 26.93 12.22 No 38 20.80 11.64 Maths Yes 66 22.76 9.92 No 38 18.02 9.54 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 16  Pupil materials: Pupils with their own rulers and pencils scored significantly higher in language and maths.  Attitude towards the new curriculum: In schools where P4 teachers preferred the old curriculum, P4 pupils scored significantly higher in maths and in language than pupils whose teachers preferred the new curriculum was or who said that the new curriculum was not different from the old one.  Significant relationships were not found between P4 pupils’ scores and the proportion of boys to girls in a school, the number of boys or girls in a school, teachers’ access to materials (e.g., stationery, flash cards, or dictionaries), the teacher’s number of years teaching or highest qualification earned, the number of books in their libraries, or the Head Teachers’ number of years of experience or highest qualification earned. Head Teacher and Teacher Interviews for 2010 Head Teachers and teachers were interviewed on the new P3 and P4 curriculums and training programs. P3 Curriculum and Training When the Head Teachers were asked whether the training on the new P3 curriculum was sufficient, the main concern was that the trainings were too short. When they were asked how the training could be improved, half of the respondents said that the training should be longer and a quarter said that relevant materials should be provided, especially relevant texts for pupils and reference books for teachers. To prevent issues that arise when teachers are transferred, Head Teachers recommended that more teachers from each school receive training in the new curriculum and that the MoES considers whether teachers have been trained when organizing transfers. When the Head Teachers were asked the greatest weakness of the new P3 curriculum, the foremost answer was a lack of teaching materials, such as relevant text and reference books. Others said that the local language vocabulary was too limited for teaching the various subject areas. Of the teachers who found it difficult to interpret the new P3 curriculum, over a third reported that they had difficulties translating English into the local language, especially in science. In relation to CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 17 continuous assessment, several Head Teachers remarked that it was not realistic to introduce this approach in large classrooms. Head Teachers reported that the greatest strengths of the new P3 curriculum were enhanced pupil understanding, enthusiasm for learning, and class participation. They took particular notice of increased pupil literacy. A few Head teachers also said the new curriculum was pupil-centered and context specific. The majority of Head Teachers who preferred the new P3 curriculum said that this was because local language enhanced pupil understanding. Others mentioned that the practical themes allowed pupils to learn from their local environment. Of the Head Teachers who preferred the old curriculum, some said they did so because they could access support materials relevant to the old curriculum and because certain teachers were not trained to teach the new curriculum. To enhance the new P3 curriculum, almost half of the Head Teachers recommended providing sufficient teaching and learning materials. Most stated that schools required relevant textbooks, especially those in the local languages. They also highlighted the need for reference materials, teaching aids, and thematic curriculum guides. Many Head Teachers also said that there was a need for increased training in the form of continuous professional development. Some suggested that all teachers needed to be trained due to the high frequency of teacher transfers. P4 Curriculum and Training Of the Head Teachers and teachers who found the new P4 curriculum training inadequate, most said that the time allocated for training was too short. Some Head Teachers and teachers said that the large amount of travel required to reach the training centers was costly and difficult. Others felt that the program suffered from a lack of materials and reference books. When the Head Teachers and teachers were asked how the training could be improved, a common response was by providing more materials, especially texts for pupils and reference books for teachers. Many also said the program should have refresher trainings and continuous professional development opportunities for CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 18 teachers. It was also noted that this continuous training would provide an opportunity for monitoring the implementation of the new curriculum. A few Head Teachers suggested scheduling the training over the holidays to avoid withdrawing teachers from their schools. Of the teachers who found it difficult to interpret the new P4 curriculum, many said that this was due to the lack of materials, such as text and reference books. Half of the Head Teachers, who also reported having difficulty, attributed their challenges to not receiving training in the new curriculum. A difficulty that both Head Teachers and teachers cited was their pupils’ inability to understand English. For teachers, the greatest strength of the new P4 curriculum was the fact that it integrated the English language. Over a third of Head Teachers agreed that it was important for pupils to start using English at least by P4. In addition, Head Teachers and teachers thought that a strong point of the new curriculum was the use of simplified content. It was reported that as a result of this new curriculum pupils’ understanding and participation increased. As with the new P3 curriculum, teachers took particular notice of improvements in pupils’ literacy. When asked the greatest weakness of the new P4 curriculum, almost half of the teachers said there was a lack of relevant text and reference books. They also noted that pupils struggled with the English language. Many Head Teachers agreed with these critiques. A few Head Teachers and teachers also said that large class sizes and the absence of guides made continuous assessment extremely difficult. Most Head Teachers and teachers preferred the new P4 curriculum to the old P4 curriculum, generally because it was simpler, more user-friendly, and it was better at improving pupil understanding. A minority of teachers favored the old curriculum because supplementary materials, such as textbooks and reference books, were readily available. Some also preferred the old curriculum because they thought that the new curriculum was confusing and required more work. When teachers and Head Teachers were asked for their suggestions on enhancing the new P4 curriculum, the overwhelming response was the need to increase materials such as reference books, textbooks, training materials, and teaching aids. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 19 The next most common suggestion was the need to train all teachers, increase the time allotted for training, and provide regular refresher courses. Teachers and Head Teachers also provided the following recommendations:  Monitor the implementation of the new curriculum;  Sensitize parents and community members to the new curriculum;  Train pre-service teachers on the use of the new curriculum; and  Align the new curriculum with the examinations. P4 Pupil Performance from 2009 to 2010 Because the overall purpose of this assessment was to determine whether similar pupils learn better under the new curriculum than the old, this section examined how P4 intervention pupils performed in 2010 using the new curriculum compared to how P4 pupils performed in 2009 using the old. This section presents the results of the analyses conducted in these two years, first through global comparisons, then through comparisons of control and experimental groups in greater detail. To make this comparison of two cohorts of pupils (Cohort 1 = 2009 with the old curriculum vs. Cohort 2 = 2010 with the new curriculum) in the same school year (P4), the analysis used a procedure called test equating. To ensure that scores from year to year are comparable, scores from tests must be equated – otherwise, it is not possible to know if the tests were of equal difficulty. Equating is a process that links the two tests and produces equivalent scores (called “expected true scores”) so we can measure pupils’ performance as if they had taken the same tests. This is done by linking the tests through the use of “anchor items” – a subset of items common to each test. These anchor items serve as a reference against which the difficulty of the two tests can be measured, and then the scores are adjusted to so they can be compared on the same scale. This equating procedure was used here to put the scores (called expected true scores) of the two cohorts on the same scale. A look at the expected true scores of P4 pupils (Table 16) shows that the 2009 cohort (old curriculum) received higher scores than the 2010 cohort (new curriculum) both in language and maths. This measure combines the scores of experimental and control groups. This difference in performance between the two CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 20 cohorts was statistically significant both subjects (Table 17). Table 16: Mean comparison between the 2009 and the 2010 P4 cohorts, experimental and control groups combined Table 17: T-tests comparing the true scores of the 2009 and the 2010 P4 cohorts, experimental and control groups combined (equal variances not assumed) Subject Levene's Test for Equality of Variances t-test for Equality of Means F Sig. t df Sig. (2-tailed) True_Language 1.91 .000 11.14 4.42 .000 True_Maths 1.09 .000 20.96 4.42 .000 General comparisons such as these, however, do not capture the different types of changes registered by pupils studying in English (control group) compared to pupils studying in local language (experimental group). For the Cohort 1 (2009) pupils, both the experimental and control groups used the old curriculum through P4. For Cohort 2 (2010), the experimental pupils used the new curriculum; they received instruction for the most part in any of the six local languages (Acoli, Ateso, Lango, Luganda, Rukigafor, Runyankole) through P3, and then transitioned to English in P4. Both groups took the P4 tests in English, for language and maths. For the control groups, it was expected that there would be no significant differences in the 2009 and 2010 scores. In language, this was the case in that the scores in 2009 and 2010 were virtually the same. In maths, however, the 2009 scores were higher; the reason for this difference is not clear (Table 18). Table 18: Mean achievement of the two cohorts of P4 pupils for the control and the experimental groups Group/Subject Group Year N Mean Std. Deviation Control True_Language C1 2009 657 86.45 16.70 C2 2010 633 86.68 18.19 True_Maths C1 2009 657 68.82 14.18 C2 2010 633 63.84 16.65 Experimental True_Language C1 2009 1582 51.42 28.12 C2 2010 1643 37.11 29.94 True_Maths C1 2009 1582 49.40 18.39 C2 2010 1643 33.52 18.69 Subject Group Year N Mean Std. Deviation True_Language C1 2009 2239 61.70 29.91 C2 2010 2276 50.90 35.11 True_Maths C1 2009 2239 55.10 19.39 C2 2010 2276 41.95 22.67 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 21 The main comparison in Table 18 involved the experimental groups in 2009 and 2010, since they had different curriculums. In both language and maths, the 2009 experimental group (Cohort 1 or old curriculum) scored significantly higher than the 2010 experimental group (Cohort 2 or new curriculum). Geography By region, the difference in performance between the two cohorts in the control group was generally not significant in language but it was significant in maths. Differences in experimental group were statistically significant for all regions, ranging from 9 to 23 points for language and 12 to 15 points for maths (Table 19). Table 19: Mean achievement by region of the two cohorts of pupils for the control and the experimental groups Group Region/Subject Group Year N Mean Std. Deviation Control Central True_Language C1 2009 179 80.50 16.72 C2 2010 180 79.29 18.15 True_Maths C1 2009 179 63.58 13.56 C2 2010 180 57.69 15.37 East True_Language C1 2009 158 86.99 18.52 C2 2010 132 86.22 20.15 True_Maths C1 2009 158 71.49 13.72 C2 2010 132 62.47 15.63 North True_Language C1 2009 180 89.60 15.23 C2 2010 181 92.10 12.80 True_Maths C1 2009 180 71.23 15.16 C2 2010 181 68.97 16.50 West True_Language C1 2009 140 89.39 14.34 C2 2010 140 89.59 19.17 True_Maths C1 2009 140 69.41 12.42 C2 2010 140 66.41 16.80 Experimental Central True_Language C1 2009 403 52.85 23.46 C2 2010 419 41.39 26.12 True_Maths C1 2009 403 51.79 15.09 C2 2010 419 36.20 17.49 East True_Language C1 2009 379 47.63 26.37 C2 2010 420 24.59 24.48 True_Maths C1 2009 379 46.88 18.70 C2 2010 420 25.70 14.12 North True_Language C1 2009 396 33.97 25.52 C2 2010 399 24.82 25.22 True_Maths C1 2009 396 39.90 18.62 C2 2010 399 27.18 16.15 West True_Language C1 2009 404 70.67 24.02 C2 2010 405 57.78 30.51 True_Maths C1 2009 404 58.70 15.62 C2 2010 405 45.10 19.86 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 22 Pupils’ Age The difference in performance of pupils for control schools between P4 2009 and P4 2010 was statistically significant only for the 10 and 11 year-olds in maths. For experimental schools, all comparisons between the two cohorts were found to be statistically significant in language and maths for most age groups (Table 20). Table 20: Mean achievement by age of the two cohorts of pupils (control and the experimental groups) Group Age/Subject Group Year N Mean Std. Deviation Control Under 10 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 185 89.22 14.35 C2 2010 155 91.67 12.48 True_Maths C1 2009 185 68.16 13.55 C2 2010 155 64.20 15.21 10 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 238 85.90 18.30 C2 2010 255 85.89 19.42 True_Maths C1 2009 238 68.29 14.92 C2 2010 255 63.55 17.06 11 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 122 85.75 16.77 C2 2010 111 85.19 17.82 True_Maths C1 2009 122 71.49 13.78 C2 2010 111 62.40 16.76 12 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 70 82.79 16.55 C2 2010 67 87.42 15.16 True_Maths C1 2009 70 67.67 13.87 C2 2010 67 66.24 16.31 Over 12 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 39 84.67 16.22 C2 2010 37 82.11 22.85 True_Maths C1 2009 39 69.08 14.37 C2 2010 37 68.92 17.32 Experimental Under 10 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 163 63.63 27.79 C2 2010 131 55.98 33.22 True_Maths C1 2009 163 52.75 17.61 C2 2010 131 40.36 20.10 10 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 427 54.07 28.00 C2 2010 462 40.82 31.37 True_Maths C1 2009 427 50.11 17.39 C2 2010 462 35.03 19.70 11 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 295 50.91 28.35 C2 2010 372 36.52 29.16 True_Maths C1 2009 295 49.59 19.23 C2 2010 372 33.39 18.48 12 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 379 47.50 27.89 C2 2010 367 32.67 28.44 True_Maths C1 2009 379 48.00 18.79 C2 2010 367 32.41 18.36 Over 12 Years Old True_Language C1 2009 310 46.69 26.35 C2 2010 268 31.49 25.17 True_Maths C1 2009 310 48.05 18.69 C2 2010 268 31.50 16.35 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 23 Pupils by Repeater Status In experimental schools, both repeaters and non-repeaters showed significant differences between 2009 and 2010 both in language and maths. Differences in the control schools were not significant for repeaters (Table 21). Table 21: Mean achievement by repeating year of the two cohorts of pupils for the control and the experimental groups Group Repeat/Subject Group Year N Mean Std. Deviation Control Yes True_Language C1 2009 62 83.69 17.71 C2 2010 50 76.06 24.62 True_Maths C1 2009 62 70.13 12.78 C2 2010 50 60.20 19.17 No True_Language C1 2009 591 86.76 16.60 C2 2010 582 87.61 17.26 True_Maths C1 2009 591 68.72 14.31 C2 2010 582 64.15 16.41 Experimental Yes True_Language C1 2009 373 47.27 26.61 C2 2010 239 28.92 23.90 True_Maths C1 2009 373 47.06 18.24 C2 2010 239 29.44 15.92 No True_Language C1 2009 1186 53.23 28.32 C2 2010 1353 39.27 30.74 True_Maths C1 2009 1186 50.50 18.23 C2 2010 1353 34.78 19.07 Pupils with Books at Home and Mothers Who Read In experimental schools P4 pupils got significantly lower scores in 2010 than in 2009 both in language and maths (Tables 22 and 23). Table 22: Mean achievement by books at home of the two cohorts of pupils for the control and the experimental groups Group Books in home/Subject Group Year N Mean Std. Deviation Control Yes True_Language C1 2009 568 87.16 16.03 C2 2010 574 88.25 15.99 True_Maths C1 2009 568 68.93 14.29 C2 2010 574 64.31 16.26 No True_Language C1 2009 87 81.63 20.17 C2 2010 58 71.28 28.77 True_Maths C1 2009 87 68.54 13.33 C2 2010 58 59.10 19.82 Experimental Yes True_Language C1 2009 1148 53.88 28.20 C2 2010 1088 43.52 30.93 True_Maths C1 2009 1148 50.87 18.24 C2 2010 1088 37.25 19.16 No True_Language C1 2009 415 45.76 26.76 C2 2010 506 25.22 23.65 True_Maths C1 2009 415 46.10 18.01 C2 2010 506 26.83 15.57 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 24 Table 23: Mean achievement by mother who reads of the two cohorts of pupils for the control and the experimental groups Group Mother who reads/Subject Group Year N Mean Std. Deviation Control Yes True_Language C1 2009 490 87.87 15.71 C2 2010 513 89.27 15.71 True_Maths C1 2009 490 69.74 13.85 C2 2010 513 65.31 16.14 No True_Language C1 2009 163 82.21 18.77 C2 2010 119 75.74 23.36 True_Maths C1 2009 163 66.25 14.83 C2 2010 119 57.62 17.50 Experimental Yes True_Language C1 2009 965 54.48 28.18 C2 2010 972 43.23 31.63 True_Maths C1 2009 965 50.81 18.17 C2 2010 972 36.98 19.65 No True_Language C1 2009 588 47.74 27.24 C2 2010 613 29.37 25.13 True_Maths C1 2009 588 47.87 18.31 C2 2010 613 29.28 16.18 Pupil’s Sex The difference in performance of P4 girls and boys in control schools between 2009 and 2010 was minor, except in maths where there were significant differences for both. In experimental schools, both P4 girls and boys had significant differences in language and maths scores between 2009 and 2010 (Table 24). Table 24: Mean achievement by sex of the two cohorts of pupils for the control and the experimental group Group Sex/Subject Group Year Mean Std. Dev. Std. Error Control Girl True_Language C1 2009 87.33 15.48 0.87 C2 2010 87.36 17.60 1.03 True_Maths C1 2009 67.96 15.03 0.84 C2 2010 62.09 17.26 1.01 Boy True_Language C1 2009 85.62 17.75 0.96 C2 2010 86.10 18.67 1.01 True_Maths C1 2009 69.63 13.32 0.72 C2 2010 65.32 16.00 0.86 Experimental Girl True_Language C1 2009 53.51 27.56 0.99 C2 2010 38.43 30.98 1.07 True_Maths C1 2009 49.23 17.99 0.65 C2 2010 33.02 18.75 0.64 Boy True_Language C1 2009 49.46 28.54 1.00 C2 2010 35.72 28.76 1.02 True_Maths C1 2009 49.56 18.77 0.66 C2 2010 34.05 18.63 0.66 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 25 Progress for Cohort 2 from P3 (2009) to P4 (2010) This part of the analysis concerns the comparison of scores between control and experimental groups in Cohort 2 as the pupils progressed from 2009 to 2010. The MLA design called for an assessment of the progress made by Cohort 2 in P3 (2009) using the new curriculum as they move to P4 (2010). To make this comparison, the test equating or linking procedure described in the previous section was used, so that the P4 2010 scores are linked to the P3 2009 score scale. Table 25 below shows the “expected true” or equated scores – the ones used to compare P3 2009 scores with the P4 2010.3 All scores are reported as percentages. Using these expected true scores, the following mean scores (Table 25) show that the pupils from the control schools where the language of instruction was English had significantly higher scores in P4 (2010) than in P3 (2009) on both English language and maths. On the other hand, the pupils from the experimental schools where the language of instruction (and testing) was one of the six local languages in P3 and then English (in the new curriculum) in P4 had significantly lower scores in P4 (2010) than in P3 (2009) in both language and maths. In other words, the pupils who used local language for instruction in P3 had low mean scores in P4 when the language of instruction was English. Table 25: Comparing the P4_2010 expected true scores equated to the P3_2009 expected true scores Group Score/subject Grade Year N Mean Std. Deviation Control True_language P3_2009 853 76.80 17.66 P4_2010 633 89.87 14.72 True_maths P3_2009 853 69.76 14.67 P4_2010 633 80.83 13.16 Experimental True_language P3_2009 2980 56.47 27.09 P4_2010 1643 42.26 33.46 True_maths P3_2009 2980 55.99 18.58 P4_2010 1643 52.68 19.57 3 This expected true score was obtained through the test characteristic curve using Samejima’s graded model found in MULTILOG and GAUSS-IRT software. First, each cohort (2009 P3 and 2010 P4) and each test (language and maths) was calibrated using Samejima’s graded model. Then the calibrated tests were used to link/equate the 2010 tests to the 2009 scale (using MULTILOG), with the 2010 theta scores equated to the 2009 theta scale. The theta scores from the two cohorts were transformed to expected true scores using the test characteristic curve of the P3 2009 cohort using the GAUSS-IRT software. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 26 Also note that all four comparisons (shown in Table 26) were found to be statistically significant. Table 26: T-tests for the comparisons of the P4_2010 expected true scores equated to the P3_2009 expected true scores scale (equal variances not assumed) Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances t-test for Equality of Means Group/Subject F Sig. t df Sig. (2-tailed) Control True language Equal variances not assumed 62.160 .000 -1.553E1 1464.207 .000 True maths Equal variances not assumed 15.533 .000 -1.526E1 1431.909 .000 Experimental True language Equal variances not assumed 255.989 .000 1.475E1 2838.936 .000 True maths Equal variances not assumed 10.634 .001 5.602 3238.655 .000 Progress of Cohort 2 (Panel) from P2 (2008) to P4 (2010) The last part of the analysis concerns the panel design for Cohort 2. A total of 673 pupils were followed from 2008 (P2) to 2010 (P4): 219 pupils from the control schools and 454 pupils from the experimental schools.4 The pupils from the control schools were taught in English with the new curriculum while pupils from the experimental schools were taught in local languages through P3 with new curriculum. All P4 pupils, whether from the control or the experimental schools, were taught with the new curriculum in English. The basic procedure used to analyse the panel data is called repeated measures analysis and is described in Annex 2. 4 In fact, of the initial 3,776 P2 pupils, only 673 could be followed individually and tested from 2008 to 2010 for a variety of reasons, including significantly high pupil transfer rates to other schools and high dropout rates. This small proportion (.18) of pupils that could be followed means that findings should be interpreted with caution – see Annex 2 for additional information. Note that the same small proportion of pupils (.18) was found in the panel of cohort 1 (from 2007 to 2009) analysed last year. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 27 Table 27 shows the evolution of the mean scores both in language and maths for Cohort 2 pupils from P2 (2008) to P3 (2009) to P4 (2010). The mean scores are represented graphically in Figure 4 for language and Figure 5 for the maths. Pupils in control (mostly private) schools consistently scored higher than those in experimental schools both in language and maths, most likely due to a selection effect since there was such a large gap at the baseline. The trends show that the experimental pupils made progress on closing the gap between P2 and P3, only to see the gap widen in P4, as the instruction and testing changed to English. The data show the same tendency observed in the previous parts of this report: P4 experimental pupils had low scores in 2010, the year of language transition in the new curriculum. The statistical details of the repeated measures analyses are shown in Annex 2. Table 27: Panel results for Cohort 2 pupils: comparing the mean scores from 2008 to 2010 for the control group and the experimental group Cohort 2 P2 2008 P3 2009 P4 2010 Control group True language 95.25 94.77 98.32 True maths 74.82 86.33 91.23 Experimental group True language 77.33 86.17 71.53 True maths 61.99 77.99 69.52 Figure 4: Plot of the mean equated/linked language true scores for pupils in the control and the experimental groups (Cohort 2) in P2 2008, P3 2009, and P4 2010 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 28 Figure 9: Plot of the mean equated/linked maths true scores for pupils in the control and the experimental groups (Cohort 2) in P2 2008, P3 2009, and P4 2010 Note that the after strong increases by the experimental group in both subjects from P2 (2008) to P3 (2009), the drop-off from P3 (2009) to P4 (2010) for the experimental group was more pronounced in language (~15 percentage points) than in maths (~10 percentage points). Discussion This year’s MLA revealed a number of tendencies already seen in 2008 and 2009, and several new ones. A discussion of these tendencies is as follows: Gains from P2 to P3 but Drop-off from P3 to P4 The cross-sectional analysis (P4 in 2009 vs. P4 in 2010) and the panel analysis (P2 to P4 experimental vs. control from 2008 to 2010) discussed in the previous sections show a trend often observed in local language transition programs. The pupils in the experimental group made large gains as they received most of their instruction in the local language that was familiar to them. In fact, these gains were larger than those seen in the control group that received instruction in English throughout the period of observation. This finding is very encouraging and shows that the pupils benefitted from instruction in local languages. However, as the experimental pupils made their transition to English in P4, their scores showed a significant decline. So the new curriculum helped the experimental pupils prior to P4 but then appeared to cause significant problems in P4. The reason for this CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 29 decline could be explained in several ways. First, the new language was difficult for the pupils. Second, the pupils did not know how to adapt their learning styles when the language was relatively unfamiliar after having studied in a familiar language for three years. Third, the teachers themselves may have had difficulty with the English language. Fourth, the teachers may not have had the pedagogical skills to provide instruction in the P4 curriculum in English to pupils whose English language skills were relatively low. Fifth, there may not have been enough instructional materials for the pupils in the experimental schools in P4. Sixth, there could have been a problem with a lack of instructional leadership and supervision for the teachers as the pupils (and teachers) made the transition from local language to English in P4. Smaller Drop-Off in Maths than in Language Again, as shown in other similar situations, the decline in scores was less in maths than in language. In other words, the pupils had less difficulty with the transition from local language to English when learning maths as opposed to English. This is likely due to the similarities in maths, at least for the numbers and symbols, in local language and English. However, with language, almost everything is different in the two languages – vocabulary, pronunciation, grammar, syntax, etc. Trends in Achievement Scores and Geography, Age, Repetition Status, Books at Home, Literacy of Mother, and Instructional Materials Looking at specific factors other than language of instruction is useful for policy￾makers. One of these factors is geography. Scores on both language and maths were at least 10 points higher in some regions (e.g., West) than in others (e.g., East). Another is pupils’ age. In both language and maths, the scores consistently declines as pupil age increased. The decline was more pronounced in language than in maths. Repeaters also had lower scores in both subject areas. Pupils with instructional materials tended to score higher. These are common trends, but the empirical evidence gives the MoES more data to support programs that encourage parents to send their children to school at an appropriate age, that provide extra instructional support to prevent repetition, and that encourage the availability of reading materials at home for the pupils. In addition, with the transition from local language to English, the trend seen in books at home becomes more nuanced. Pupils in the experimental group with books at home tended to show a lower drop- CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 30 off from P3 to P4 than those pupils with no books at home; this shows that the presence of books can help mitigate the pupils’ difficulties as they make the transition from local language to English. The same trend was seen with literacy of the mother. Gender Equity in Achievement Scores As is increasingly shown in achievement studies, there were no significant differences between the scores of girls and boys in either language or maths. This was generally the case in the control and experimental groups, and at the different grade levels. It is encouraging that this trend is evident in Uganda as it is in many other countries. Large Percentage of Pupils Showing Learning Gains As the experimental pupils progressed from P2 to P3, the vast majority (more than 70 percent) demonstrated higher levels of learning achievement as a result of pre￾and in-service training activities, as measured by the panel study and the achievement test scores. The average gains of approximately 10 percentage points in language and 15 percent in maths were high, and in fact much higher than the gains by pupils in the control group (though there was most likely a ceiling effect with the language scores for the control group). The fact that all of the gains were “given back” by the experimental pupils in language, as well as most of the gains by the experimental pupils in maths, was predictable from the literature. Enthusiasm for the New Curriculum and Instruction in Local Languages Most of the teachers and Head Teachers interviewed said that they prefer the new curriculum, in spite of some of the difficulties with training and materials. They said that instruction in local languages was practical and more consistent with the children’s environments. Demand for Additional Training and Materials Clear trends from the interviews of teachers and Head Teachers were that the training on the new curriculum was too short and that there were not enough instructional materials in the local languages. This was particularly apparent in two areas: the teachers had difficulty with finding vocabulary that would correspond to some of the curriculum content, and teacher had difficulty with the CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 31 transition from local language to English at P4. One other area mentioned by some of the teachers was the difficulty of implementing classroom-based continuous assessment with a lack of training and materials, especially given large class sizes. Additional training and materials would play a large role in helping to alleviate some of these difficulties. Need for Additional Data Studies in other countries have shown that pupils usually start showing gains again in P5 and P6 as they become used to learning in the international language. This could be expected in Uganda, particularly given the strong gains shown by the pupils from P2 to P3. The pupils and the teachers, as well as the supervisors, should become more familiar with the English language and teaching methods after they struggle through the first year of the transition. In fact, the learning concepts and styles that the pupils benefitted from while learning in their local language should “kick in” as they make it through P4 and move on to P5 to P6. It would be highly advisable for the Ugandan MoES to track the pupils through two more grade levels to examine the trends in their learning. The data over the next two years are as important as those from the preceding four years. Recommendations Based on the findings from the 2010 MLA, recommendations are similar to those from the previous studies, with a few modifications: Training In light of concerns raised by teachers and Head Teachers about the training being too short in duration, it seems clear that additional training would strengthen the outcomes of the reform. This is similar to trends in the U.S. and other countries where the training needs to be of a long enough duration and intensity in order to have both immediate and lasting effects. More training is particularly critical given the drop-offs in performance in the experimental group from P3 to P4 as the teachers and pupils transition to English. Lessons should be learned from the large gains realized when the pupils are learning in a familiar language from P2 to P3. It is therefore recommended that a program be developed to provide ongoing training and support of teachers and Head Teachers implementing the new curriculum, CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 32 with a special focus on teachers who have not as yet been able to participate in training. Training should also reinforce teachers’ understanding and practice of continuous assessment. Materials The positive effects of instructional materials and of books at home, and in light of the findings that types and quantities of materials in libraries were not necessarily correlated with outcomes, more strategic procurement and use of materials would likely benefit teachers and pupils alike. It is therefore recommended that the MoES looks seriously at investments in materials and books, and that a program be developed to assist teachers and Head Teachers with strategies for effective use of materials in their libraries. Materials such as teachers’ guides and translations of the curriculum should also be provided to teachers to facilitate use of the new curriculum, as well as the critical transition from local languages to English. In fact, the need for additional training and materials were the biggest concerns expressed by teachers and Head Teachers in the MLA from the previous two years. Disparities Encouragingly, the disparities in gender in the two subject areas at the different grade levels were very small and most often not statistically significant. However, there were differences when disaggregating by factors such as region, pupils’ age at a grade level, repetition, existence of books at home, and the literacy of the mother. The MoES can examine these issues further and perhaps figure out ways of addressing the disparities, in the same way that they have had long-term programs to promote gender equity in schools. There are other factors, such as pupil dropout, that would be worth investigating as well, particularly if there are correlations with language of instruction. Language Issues It would be useful to conduct additional studies of the reasons behind the large gains in achievement when pupils are learning in local languages, and the difficulties in their transition from local language to English. Another issue to examine is the existence of multiple local languages in schools and the kinds of support teachers, Head Teachers and parents need to accommodate local language instruction in these contexts. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 33 Additional Data It is worth reiterating the need for follow-up studies of the pupils’ achievement in language and maths as they progress from P4 to P5 and P6. Clearly, these data would provide a wealth of information that would lead to improved implementation of the new curriculum and additional strategies that can help pupils with the transition from local language to English as the medium of instruction, in both language and maths. The implementation of these recommendations – in the broad areas of training, materials, disparities, language, and data – has the potential to substantially improve the implementation of the new curriculum as Uganda moves forward in the continued improvement of its education system. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 34 Annex 1: Sampling and Testing Sample The selection of schools and pupils for this assessment was based on a stratified 2- stage cluster sampling design. Two-stage cluster sampling involves two levels of selection – in this case, the identification of schools called clusters, then pupils in those schools. Schools were selected based on geographic representation, namely region and district: the Eastern, Northern, Western and South Central (called Central in this report) regions were selected in order to represent the largest populations and language groups, and to represent the geographic diversity of the country. Within each region, one urban and one rural district were selected using purposive sampling in order to represent those two settings, the most remote districts being excluded due to time constraints. Within each district, the selection of schools was made according to language criteria, school criteria, and required sample sizes (see following sections). Once these criteria were established, government (public) schools were selected randomly within the categories specified below. A subset of private schools was also selected to serve as control schools; selection was achieved through convenience sampling. Finally, once the administrators were in the schools, they selected pupils randomly. Language Considerations As stated above, the purpose of this assessment is to determine the extent to which pupil learning has increased with the new curriculum. This requires a comparison of pupil performance using the old curriculum in English and the new one which, among other things (e.g., thematic instruction, pupil-centered methodology, etc.), calls for instruction to be conducted in local languages in P1-P3. This distinction required a definition of experimental schools as ones adopting the new curriculum in local language and control schools adopting the new curriculum in English. In order to make this distinction, the assumption was made that, in most cases, private schools would change to the new curriculum but continue to use English, while the government schools would use the new curriculum with local languages – many parents opt to send their children to private schools because English is the medium of instruction. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 35 In 2008, in 2009 and in 2010 it was found that not all private schools continued to use English as the medium of instruction; nor did all government schools switch to local language instruction. Thus, the distinction between control and experimental schools changed from private vs. public to English medium vs. local language medium. This shift required a re-categorization of data from the baseline MLA 2007 in order to be able to compare schools according to these new definitions. The Ugandan technical team, consisting of UNITY staff and members of NCDC, UNEB and the MoES, took the decision to include 6 of the most commonly-spoken languages for the experimental group: Acoli (North), Ateso (East), Lango (North), Luganda (Central), Rukiga (West) and Runyankole (West). School Attributes Once the languages were selected, the question became which schools in each language area to include. Since the MLA in 2010 for P4 was a replication of the MLA in 2009 for P4 (using equivalent tests) the schools used in the P4 2010 MLA were the same as those retained for the P4 2009 MLA. We should keep in mind that, in each district, schools had been selected by:  Location: Urban, peri-urban and rural schools,  Size: Large and small schools,  Ownership: Government and private schools,  Distance: Larger and smaller distances from the district center,  Boarding type: Some of the day schools, some partly boarding and some full boarding, and  Gender: Co-educational, boys only and girls only. Once these parameters were established and exclusions were made, remaining schools in the data base were provisionally selected on a random basis by Ministry and UNITY staff. Sample Size Once a list of eligible schools was generated, the final question concerned sample size: the number of schools and the number of pupils in each school was to be determined in order to minimize sampling error. The main criterion for school and pupil selection in the sample was to ensure that results could be reported with a 95% confidence interval and a 5% margin of error – standards typically used for CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 36 pupil achievement testing. The goal was to be able to generalize the findings of the MLA to the entire population of pupils in each area in which the MLA was conducted. A total of 13 experimental and 7 control schools from each district with a sub-sample of 20 pupils per school was the minimum necessary to obtain an acceptable margin of error. Accordingly, 2,325 P2 pupils from 117 schools participated in the 2007 MLA; 2,294 P3 pupils from the same5 117 schools and 3,776 P2 pupils from 146 schools6 (including the 117 P3 schools) participated in the 2008 MLA.7 The 2009 MLA used roughly the same numbers of pupils and the same schools as the 2008 MLA: 2,239 P4 pupils in 115 schools and 3,833 P3 pupils in 146 schools. For the 2010 MLA a total of 2,276 P4 pupils in 116 schools8 participated in the exercise. The total numbers of schools and P4 pupils in the 2010 MLA were as follows (Table 28): Table 28: MLA 2010: Number of schools and P4 pupils Schools Pupils Region Experimental Control Total Experimental Control Total Central 21 9 30 419 180 599 East 21 8 29 420 132 552 North 20 9 29 399 181 580 West 21 7 28 405 140 545 Total 83 33 116 1,643 633 2,276 Test Development Since the objective of the 2010 MLA test development was to construct an equivalent version of the P4 test, the same P4 2009 specifications table was used in the 2010 MLA. Then, two item writing workshops were conducted simultaneously for P4, one for the language test and one for the maths test. The coordinator of the workshops was Dickson Turyareeba, a Research and Policy Analyst with the UNITY project, in partnership with Baale Remegious, a Curriculum Specialist with the NCDC. Each workshop was attended by five people: three primary level teachers, a language expert or a maths expert from the NCDC and the UNITY coordinator. Teams wrote and selected items and ordered them, and graphics and illustrations were developed. In order to be able to equate (and therefore compare) P3 2009 to P4 5 Mengo school replaced Ryamihanda school in 2008 sample. 6 A few schools from the 6 districts were added to the sample to insure the representativity of the control group. 7 The 146 schools selected for the P2 test in 2008 includes the 117 P3 schools and some 29 “new” schools chosen to ensure a minimum number of English pupils for the control group. 8 Grace Christian Academy school in the Gulu district (North) was closed in 2010. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 37 2010 outcomes and also to equate P4 2009 and P4 2010, a subset of items common to each test, called anchor items, was selected from the P3 2009 tests to be included in the P4 2009 and P4 2010 tests (equating is discussed in more detail below). All items were then analyzed by the international consultants in Uganda and in North America for their pedagogic and psychometric properties, and then organized into two versions for pilot testing. Also developed were teachers’ and Head Teachers’ interview instruments, test administrators’ guides, and guides for the training of administrators. Eight administrators were trained in the use of all materials to administer 2 versions of each test on a pilot basis in the four target regions. Data were subsequently entered and analyzed (see the section on Data Quality below) and recommendations were made by test administrators and project advisors. The best items were selected for the actual or operational tests which consisted of one language test (12 groups of items, called testlets) and one maths test (18 testlets). (See also the Technical Report for more discussion of the results of the pilot.) Test Administration For the operational test, 80 Coordinating Center Tutors (CCTs) were recruited to serve as test administrators – 10 for each District by team of 2. Sixteen people, 2 by District, worked as supervisors. These supervisors were responsible for training the CCTs in test administration, distributing all testing and administration materials, monitoring test administration, and collecting administration reports. In each of the schools, pupils who had taken the test the previous year were asked to sit for the test this year (for the panel portion of the analysis). If all 20 pupils could not be found, additional pupils were chosen randomly by test administrators according to procedures detailed in the administrators’ guides. Once pupils were selected, pupils who were not selected were asked to join pupils in other classrooms. The administrator distributed the English booklets to the pupils and instructed them as to the rules of test taking – e.g., no verbal responses, no looking at other pupils’ answers, etc. The administrator then led the pupils through the language test item by item, followed by a 15 minute break, then continued with the maths test. Following the administration of pupil tests, the CTTs interviewed the P4 teachers whose pupils had taken the test, as well as the Head Teacher of that school. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 38 Scoring and Data Entry After administering the tests, the CCTs returned to their regional centers to submit the booklets and administration reports according to procedures outlined in their administrator’s guides. The technical team members then took the test booklets back to Kampala for sorting, tracking each booklet with its own code. Tests were then scored by project staff and Ministry officials working in groups using a common scoring sheet. Next, data were entered by project staff and contractors using Excel templates developed by the international consultants. Data entry quality control was assured by selecting at random 5 test booklets per district and checking the entered data against the original. Finally, data sets were sent in electronic format to the international consultants in the US and Canada for cleaning, analysis, and report compilation. Data Analysis Quantitative data analysis consisted of three steps: verification of item quality and test reliability (described in Data quality below), basic descriptive analyses and more advanced procedures, including T-tests, Levene’s homogeneity of variance test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), Pearson correlations, post-hoc procedures (Tukey’s b, Dunnett’s C) and equating procedure. Quantitative analyses were conducted using SPSS, MULTILOG, and GAUSS-IRT software. It should be noted that a significance level of .01 was used instead of the standard .05 for t-tests and correlations; this is common practice when running multiple analyses with the same data sets. Qualitative data analysis consisted of organizing responses given by teachers and Head Teachers into categories, then tallying their responses to identify the most frequent responses to interview questions. All qualitative analyses were conducted in Excel and Word. Data Quality In any test of pupil achievement, two major sources of error can compromise the quality of the data:  sampling errors resulting from the sampling design, CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 39  measurement error due to the lack of reliability of the tests or insufficient item discrimination, and This section describes measures taken in these two categories in order to assess item and test quality. Sampling Error Sampling error is a measure of the error caused by observing a sample instead of a whole population. The larger the sampling error, the less faith one should have that a study’s reported results are close to the "true" figures - that is, the figures for the whole population. In the 2010 MLA, the size of the population and the sampling design yielded the following statistics for P4 (see Part 2: “Other results,” Section 1 of the Technical Report for more details):  for the language test, the 95% margin of error of the mean was 0.361  for the maths test, the 95% margin of error of the mean was 0.302. Overall, these margins of error were found to be relatively small, showing very good precision for the estimated means of the two tests. Measurement Error P4 test reliability and item characteristics were measured using three classical indices: Cronbach alpha, item difficulty, and item-to-test correlations. A fourth index was also used: item characteristic curves, based on item response modeling. All procedures were conducted with SPSS and MULTILOG software. Summaries of these tests appear below; additional statistical information is provided in the Technical Report. 9 It is important to note that test items were not analyzed independently, but in group called “testlets” in which pupils followed the same instructions to answer all items in that group. For example, a task might ask pupils to draw a line connecting pictures to words. The test administrator would start by giving an example, and the pupils would write the answer to that example in their test booklets. The pupils 9 See also Bertrand & Blais (2004) for fuller descriptions of these procedures. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 40 would then answer the remaining items in that group – usually 2 to 4 – following the same instructions. The advantage of this approach is that it reduces the number of different types of instructions pupils must follow in order to complete each item – a strategy often used in contexts where pupils are unfamiliar with testing procedures. While this is an effective format for standardized tests, items cannot be analyzed separately; in a sense, they are the same item with different parts, and are thus considered “locally dependent.” 10 To address this problem, items were grouped and analyzed as “testlets” - a technique described in Thissen & Wainer11 (2001). A description of the analyses used to assess the psychometrical properties of the items and the tests follows. Cronbach’s Alpha The first analysis of test reliability is Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, which concerns how strongly items are correlated with one another. The more correlated the items are, the greater the reliability of the test – that is, the more the items are seen to be measuring the same general construct (e.g. math ability). A Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.7 or higher (the maximum possible is 1) is generally considered acceptable in pupil achievement testing. As can be seen below, both P4 language (12 testlets) and maths (18 testlets) tests obtained extremely high Cronbach’s alpha measures, indicating a very high level of internal consistency (Table 29). Table 29: Cronbach’s alpha values, P4 Class Language Maths P4 .944 .911 Testlet Difficulty Index The next analysis provides a “testlet difficulty index,” or the mean score of all pupils for each testlet. The higher the value, the easier the test was for the pupils. For the P4 language tests (Table 30), some language testlets were found to be very difficult (e.g., testlets 5 and 11) while others were rather easy (e.g., testlets 2 and 4) for the P4 pupils in 2010. The same was true in maths, where, for example testlet 5 was difficult while testlet 8 was easy (Table 31). 10 A procedure called Yen’s Q3 is used to verify the degree of local dependency. 11 Thissen, D., & Wainer, H. (Eds). (2001). Test scoring. New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 41 Table 30: P4 testlet means for language Testlet Mean Maximum score Std. Deviation N 1 1.64 5 1.53 2276 2 3.16 6 1.81 2276 3 2.19 5 1.47 2276 4 3.88 6 1.35 2276 5 1.02 4 1.20 2276 6 1.97 5 1.71 2276 7 1.25 4 1.32 2276 8 1.58 5 1.52 2276 9 2.59 5 1.24 2276 10 1.82 5 1.47 2276 11 1.14 4 1.23 2276 12 2.18 5 1.74 2276 Table 31: P4 testlet means for maths Testlet Mean Maximum score Std. Deviation N 1 1.07 3 .92 2276 2 1.36 4 1.05 2276 3 1.63 3 .59 2276 4 1.29 3 .93 2276 5 .55 3 .75 2276 6 .81 3 .82 2276 7 1.33 4 1.09 2276 8 1.74 4 1.00 2276 9 .72 2 .45 2276 10 1.05 3 .79 2276 11 1.37 4 1.36 2276 12 1.16 4 1.32 2276 13 1.04 4 1.15 2276 14 1.62 5 1.57 2276 15 1.18 5 .96 2276 16 .98 4 1.21 2276 17 .68 6 1.17 2276 18 1.36 5 1.28 2276 Item-Total Correlation The third of these classical indices is the “item-total correlation” – a measure of how well an item discriminates between low and high achievers. An item is said to have good discrimination when pupils with high exams scores get an item correct, and pupils with low exam scores get the item incorrect. The item-total correlation is a measure of this relationship – i.e., how well each pupil performed on each item relative to his/her total exam score. In other words, correlations of closer to 1 (the maximum) have greater discrimination. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 42 Most of the item-total correlations were found to be very high on both the language and maths tests, meaning that they provide a high level of discrimination between pupils of different abilities. Tables 32 and 33 present the item-total correlations (see Technical Report for more complete tables). Note also that the strong item-total correlations for most of the items in these tables are consistent with the high value of Cronbach’s alpha coefficient presented above. Table 32: Item-total correlations for P4 language test Testlet Corrected Item-Total Correlation 1 .780 2 .734 3 .68 4 .64 5 .76 6 .85 7 .84 8 .75 9 .59 10 .69 11 .82 12 .82 Table 33: Item-total correlations for P4 maths test Testlet Corrected Item-Total Correlation 1 .64 2 .66 3 .43 4 .53 5 .59 6 .61 7 .67 8 .52 9 .44 10 .44 11 .75 12 .58 13 .76 14 .66 15 .49 16 .45 17 .56 18 .68 Threats to Validity Finally, four threats to validity must be considered in their interpretation: 1. Multiple measures: The 2010 MLA represents the fourth and final year of measure of a large phenomenon – i.e., the effect of Uganda’s national curriculum reform on learning in its schools. To obtain a reliable measure of such a phenomenon, multiple measures (e.g., a minimum of 3-5 years) are needed in order to make valid claims. Indeed 5 measures would be better than 4 measures and 4 measures would be better than only 3. 2. Hawthorne effect: Any new intervention such as this reform is likely to create a “spike” or change in behavior in the short term, due to initial excitement, CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 43 changed expectations, or other factors. This phenomenon, called the Hawthorne Effect, is less likely to be a factor in this fourth year of testing than it might have been in Years 1, 2 and 3. 3. Ceiling effect: Members of a subgroup who are near the “ceiling,” or upper range of a measurement scale (e.g., pupils with higher scores) are less likely to make the same size gains as those who are closer to the bottom. This phenomenon, called the Ceiling Effect, might account for the smaller differences noted in control schools than in the experimental schools. Again, multiple measures will reveal the extent to which pupils’ scores might be attributable to the new curriculum or to other factors. 4. Problems with test quality or administration: Every measure has been taken, and described in this report, to ensure the highest quality possible of test construction, test administration, scoring, and data entry. In the 2010 MLA, some missing data values were observed, especially return rates of interview instruments in certain districts and low percentages of pupils followed in the panel design. These data gaps can impact the interpretation of data and generalizability of findings; these concerns are noted in the interpretation of this report. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 44 Annex 2: Panel Analysis Comparing the Total Sample Scores to the Subsample Scores Table 34 shows that the subsample of 673 pupils out of the sample of the 3776 pupils in 2008 P2 Cohort 2 is proportionally equal to the subsample of 420 pupils found in 2007 P2 Cohort 1 where the sample counted 2325 pupils. This very low proportion (.18) of pupils in the panel constitutes a major drawback for the analysis and the interpretation of the panel data. Besides, as can be seen in Table 35, the subsample scores in language and maths are found to be much higher than the sample scores. Table 34: Mean language and maths scores for the Cohort 2 sample (3776 pupils) and the subsample (673 pupils) in P2 (year 2008) Results of the subsample N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation LANGUAGE 673 3.00 38.00 27.01 9.50 MATHS 673 2.00 37.00 21.77 7.99 Valid N (listwise) 673 Results of the global sample N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation LANGUAGE 3776 .00 38.00 22.12 10.64 MATHS 3776 .00 37.00 18.39 8.53 Valid N (listwise) 3776 Repeated Measures Analyses According to what has been done for the analyses in the precedent parts of this report, where P3 2009 pupils were compared to P2 2008 pupils, all «true» achievement scores in P3 and P4 were linked to the baseline P2 scale. Then a repeated measures analysis (also known as «split-plot design») was performed with the linked scores: the within-subject factor being the three-year achievement test (either in language or maths) and the between-subject factor being the control￾experimental grouping. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 45 Table 35 and Table 36 show the true percent scores in language and maths for the 673 pupils while they were in P2 (2008), P3 (2009) and P4 (2010). The more obvious result stemming from those 2 tables is that the pupils in the control schools, whether in P2 2007, P3 2008 or P4 2009, got much higher language and maths mean true scores than the pupils in the experimental schools. It can also be observed that, except for the language test between P2 2008 to P3 2009, there is a general increase in mean scores from P2 2007 to P3 2008 and then to P4 2009 for the pupils from the control schools while pupils from the experimental schools increased their mean scores between P2 2008 and P3 2009 but their mean scores decreased dramatically between P3 2009 and P4 2010. Table 35: Mean language true scores for the pupils of the control and the experimental schools in P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010 Mean Std. Deviation N True language P2 2008 Control 95.25 4.95 219 Experimental 77.33 21.80 454 Total 83.16 19.97 673 True language P3 2009 Control 94.77 5.18 219 Experimental 86.17 15.95 454 Total 88.96 14.02 673 True language P4 2010 Control 98.32 4.50 219 Experimental 71.53 26.47 454 Total 80.25 25.23 673 Table 36: Mean maths true scores for the pupils of the control and the experimental schools in P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010 Mean Std. Deviation N True maths P2 2008 Control 74.82 12.10 219 Experimental 61.99 17.03 454 Total 66.16 16.71 673 True maths P3 2009 Control 86.33 9.50 219 Experimental 77.99 13.32 454 Total 80.70 12.81 673 True maths P4 2010 Control 91.23 7.8321 219 Experimental 69.52 17.29 454 Total 76.58 18.03 673 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 46 Table 37 shows part of the result of the repeated measures analysis for the language test: the within-subject factor (3-year measure of achievement: P2 2008, P3 2009, P4 2010) is statistically significant12 (F=33.421; p<.001) but also the interaction «factor*Control» between this factor and the between-subject variable (control-experimental) is statistically significant (F=82.844; p<.001): in fact, as already observed in Figure 8 (see the section untitled « Measuring the progress of Cohort 2, P2 to P4, 2008 to 2010»), the control and the experimental lines are not parallel for the language test, a graphical manifestation of this interaction. Table 37: Repeated measures analysis of the control and the experimental schools (between-subject factor) in P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010 (within-subject factor) for the language scores Source Type III Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Within-subject factor Lower-bound 9855.898 1.000 9855.898 33.421 .000 factor * Control Lower-bound 24431.183 1.000 24431.183 82.844 .000 Error(factor1) Lower-bound 197881.321 671.000 294.905 This statistically significant interaction implies that «simple main effect» analyses must be implemented to compare the true mean language scores between the pupils from the control schools and the pupils from the experimental schools for each of the 3-year within-subject factor, or P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010. Table 38 presents the results of this simple main effect analysis. The tests are shown to be statistically significant for P2 2008 (F=144.249; p<.001), for P3 2009 (F=60.56; p<.001) and for P4 2009 (F=221.095; p<.001). These results agree with the above observations (see Table 33) while comparing the mean language scores of the control and the experimental schools: 95.25 (control) vs. 77.33 (exp) for P2 2008; 94.77 (control) vs. 86.17 (exp) for P3 2009; 98.32 vs. 71.53 for P4 2010. Table 38: Simple main effect analyses comparing the mean language true scores for the pupils of the control and the experimental schools in each of the three group-years P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010 EFFECT .. Control_Experimental Univariate F-tests with (1,418) D. F. Variable Hypoth. SS Error SS Hypoth. MS Error MS F Sig Language P2 2008 47422.395 220592.297 47422.395 328.751 144.249 .000 Language P3 2009 10931.410 121117.733 10931.410 180.503 60.560 .000 Language P4 2010 106002.158 321704.388 106002.158 479.440 221.095 .000 12 Mauchly’s test of sphericity was found to be statistically significant (25.566; p<.001). Lower bound degrees of freedom correction was used. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 47 The simple main effect procedure can also be used to contrast any two-year results (P2 2008 vs. P3 2009, P3 2009 vs. P4 2010, P2 2008 vs. P4 2010) for each of the control group and the experimental group: Table 39 presents these simple effects results for the language test. These results confirm what has been seen in Figure 8 since only the P2 2008 vs. P3 2009 contrast for the control group was found not statistically significant. All other two-by-two comparisons must be considered statistically significant. Table 39: Simple main effect analyses comparing the mean language true scores for the pupils between P2 2008 and P3 2009, between P3 2009 and P4 2010 and between P2 2008 and P4 2010 for each of the control group and the experimental group Control MS F Signif. P2 2008 vs P3 2009 25.65 .21 .648 P3 2009 vs P4 2010 1378.38 8.01 .005 P2 2008 vs P4 2010 1027.95 6.96 .009 Experimental P2 2008 vs P3 2009 17700.53 144.37 .000 P3 2009 vs P4 2010 48629.98 282.70 .000 P2 2008 vs P4 2010 7652.53 51.80 .000 Table 40 shows part of the result of the repeated measures analysis for the maths test: the within-subject factor (3-year measure of achievement: P2 2008, P3 2009, P4 2010) is statistically significant13 (F=358.480; p<.001) but the interaction «factor*Control» between this factor and the between-subject variable (control￾experimental) is also statistically significant (F=74.128; p<.001): ): in fact, as already observed, the control and the experimental lines are not parallel for the maths test, a graphical manifestation of this interaction. Table 40: Repeated measures analysis of the control and the experimental schools (between-subject factor) in P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010 (within-subject factor) for the maths scores Tests of Within-Subjects Effects Source Type III Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Within-subject factor Lower-bound 66121.139 1.000 66121.139 358.480 .000 factor * Control Lower-bound 13672.804 1.000 13672.804 74.128 .000 Error(factor1) Lower-bound 123764.865 671.000 184.448 13 Mauchly’s test of sphericity was found to be statistically significant (15.073; p<.001). Lower bound degrees of freedom correction was used. CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 48 This statistically significant interaction implies that «simple main effect» analyses must be implemented to compare the true mean maths scores between the pupils from the control schools and the pupils from the experimental schools for each of the 3-year within-subject factor, that is P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010. Table 41 presents the results of this simple main effect analysis. The tests are shown to be statistically significant for P2 2008 (F=99.891; p<.001), for P3 2009 (F=68.977; p<.001) and for P4 2009 (F=313.922; p<.001). These results are actually in accord with the above observations while comparing the mean maths scores of the control and the experimental schools: all maths mean score are much higher for the pupils of control schools than for the pupils of experimental schools for each of the three group-year P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010. Table 41: Simple main effect analyses comparing the mean maths true scores for the pupils of the control and the experimental schools in each of the three group-year P2 2008, P3 2009 and P4 2010 EFFECT .. Control_Experimental Univariate F-tests with (1,418) D. F. Variable Hypoth. SS Error SS Hypoth. MS Error MS F Sig Maths P2 2008 24312.381 163313.639 24312.381 243.388 99.891 .000 Maths P3 2009 10280.719 100008.249 10280.719 149.043 68.977 .000 Maths P4 2010 69621.600 148813.906 69621.600 221.779 313.922 .000 As was done for the language test, the simple main effect procedure can also be used to contrast any two-year results (P2 2008 vs. P3 2009, P3 2009 vs. P4 2010, P2 2008 vs. P4 2010) for each of the control group and the experimental group for the maths test: Table 42 presents these simple effects results. These results confirm what has been seen earlier: all these two-by-two comparisons are statistically significant. Table 42: Simple main effect analyses comparing the mean maths true scores for the pupils between P2 2008 and P3 2009, between P3 2009 and P4 2010 and between P2 2008 and P4 2010 for each of the control group and the experimental group Control MS F Signif. P2 2008 vs. P3 2009 14510.14 148.62 .000 P3 2009 vs. P4 2010 2628.61 33.46 .000 P2 2008 vs. P4 2010 29490.49 293.52 .000 Experimental P2 2008 vs. P3 2009 58096.00 595.04 .000 P3 2009 vs. P4 2010 16273.50 207.13 .000 P2 2008 vs. P4 2010 12873.97 128.13 .000 CORE REPORT - MLA 2010 - UNITY Project, Uganda - Creative Associates International, Inc. By School-to-School International - March 2011 Page 49 References Benson, C. (2004). The importance of mother tongue-based schooling for educational quality. Paris: UNESCO. (For the Education for all global monitoring report, 2005). Bertrand, R. and Valiquette, C. (1986) Pratique de l’analyse statistique des données. Québec: Presses de l’Université du Québec. Bertrand, R. and Blais, J-G. 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