Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence End-line Assessment Report 2018 August 2019 Prepared for the United States Agency for International Development, USAID Grant Number AID-663-I0-13-00001 Recommended Citation: Bachewe, Fantu, Guush Berhane, Kalle Hirvonen, John Hoddinott, Bethelehem Koru, Fanaye Tadesse, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Abdulazize Wolle, Abenezer Wondwossen, Ibrahim Worku, and Yisehac Yohannes, 2019. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence End-line Assessment Report 2018. International Food Policy Research Institute. USAID/Ethiopia Contact: Semachew Kassahun (skassahun@usaid.gov) Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse/International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) IFPRI C/O ILRI, Bole Sub-City, Kebele no 13, Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: A.SeyoumTaffesse@cgiar.org USAID Bureau for Resilience and Food Security Contact: rfs.ald@usaid.gov Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 3 Table of Contents List of Tables.......................................................................................................................... 5 List of Figures......................................................................................................................... 8 List of Acronyms................................................................................................................... 9 Executive Summary............................................................................................................. 10 Background ..................................................................................................... 10 ZOI Survey 2018 Phase One End-line Assessment Indicators............ 10 ZOI Survey 2018 Assessment Data Sources.......................................... 11 Summary of Key Findings............................................................................. 12 1. Background ..................................................................................................... 15 1.1 Feed the Future Overview ............................................................ 15 1.2 Feed the Future P1-ZOI Profile.................................................... 15 1.2.1 Rationale for P1-ZOI Selection.................................... 16 1.2.2 Demography of the P1-ZOI.......................................... 17 1.2.3 Agriculture in the P1-ZOI ............................................. 20 1.3 Purpose of this Assessment........................................................... 21 2. Methodologies for Obtaining 2018 Values for Feed the Future Indicators ......................................................................................................... 22 2.1 Data Sources..................................................................................... 22 2.1.1 Primary Data: The Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 ............................................................. 22 2.1.2 Comparability of Data Sources Used for the Feed the Future Phase One Baseline and End￾line ZOI Survey Assessment......................................... 27 2.2 Measures and Reporting Conventions Used Throughout This Report................................................................ 29 2.2.1 Standard Disaggregates.................................................. 29 2.2.2 Reporting Conventions.................................................. 31 3. ZOI Survey 2018 P1-ZOI Population ....................................................... 32 3.1 Demographics................................................................................... 32 3.2 Living Conditions............................................................................. 37 3.3 Education ........................................................................................... 40 4. Household Economic Status....................................................................... 43 4.1 Daily Per Capita Consumption Expenditures............................ 43 4.2 Prevalence and Depth of Poverty in the P1-ZOI ..................... 46 4.2.1 The $1.25 Poverty Threshold....................................... 47 4.2.3 The National Poverty Threshold ................................. 51 5. Hunger and Dietary Intake.......................................................................... 53 5.1 Household Hunger.......................................................................... 53 5.2 Dietary Intake................................................................................... 55 5.2.1 Dietary Diversity among Women Age 15-49 Years................................................................................... 55 5.2.2 Infant and Young Child Feeding.................................... 62 6. Nutritional Status of Women and Children............................................ 68 6.1 Body Mass Index of Women Age 15-49 Years......................... 68 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 4 6.2 Stunting, Wasting, Underweight among Children Under 5 Years.................................................................................. 72 6.2.1 Stunting (Low Height-for-Age)..................................... 72 6.2.2 Wasting (Low Weight-for-Height).............................. 73 6.2.3 Underweight (Low Weight-for-Age) .......................... 76 7. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture.................................................. 80 7.1 Overview ........................................................................................... 80 7.2 Production ......................................................................................... 88 7.3 Resources.......................................................................................... 90 7.4 Income....................................................................................................... 94 7.5 Leadership ................................................................................................ 94 7.6 Time.................................................................................................... 96 8. Summary and Conclusions.......................................................................... 99 References 101 Appendix 1. Supplementary Data and Figures........................................................... 103 Appendix 2. Methodology .............................................................................................. 105 A2.1 Sampling and Weighting .............................................................. 105 Determining sample size ............................................................. 106 A2.2 Poverty Prevalence and Consumption Expenditure Methods .......................................................................................... 111 Measuring poverty and comparing poverty across groups ............................................................................. 111 A2.3 Criteria for Achieving Adequacy for Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Indicators................................. 114 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 5 List of Tables Table ES1: Feed the Future PI-ZOI indicator estimates, by key disaggregates: Ethiopia 2013-2018 ............................................................................................................................ 13 Table 1.2. Number of households, by category, in the P1-ZOI, Ethiopia 2018 ...................... 20 Table 2.2. Comparison of results of household and individual interviews in the PI￾ZOI, in total, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys.................................................................................................................................. 27 Table 3.1a Household demographic characteristics in the P1-ZOI ............................................ 32 Table 3.1b Comparison of household demographic characteristics between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys......................................... 33 Table 3.2a.: Comparison of characteristics of primary adult female decision-makers in the PI-ZOI, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys ........ 35 Table 3.2b. Comparison of characteristics of primary adult male decision-makers in the PI-ZOI, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys ........ 36 Table 3.3a Comparison of household dwelling characteristics between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys................................................ 38 Table 3.3b. Comparison of household dwelling characteristics, by gendered household type, between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys......................................................................................................... 39 Table 3.4a. School attendance, educational attainment and literacy in the P1-ZOI................. 41 Table 3.4b. School attendance, educational attainment and literacy in the P1-ZOI, by age and sex........................................................................................................................... 41 Table 3.5. Comparison of household member educational attainment in the PI-ZOI, in total and by sex, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys.................................................................................................................................. 42 Table 4.1a Daily per capita consumption expenditures by household characteristic (in constant 2010 USD1 ) in the P1-ZOI ........................................................................ 44 Table 4.1b Comparison of daily per capita consumption expenditures in constant 2010 USD at 2005 PPP between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys1 ................................................................................................ 45 Table 4.1c Comparison of mean daily per capita consumption expenditures in Constant 2010 USD at 2005 PPP in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end￾line ZOI Surveys................................................................................................................. 46 Table 4.2. Poverty in the ZOI at the international poverty line of $1.25 (2005 PPP) - 2018 ....................................................................................................................................... 48 Table 4.3a: Comparison of prevalence of poverty at the $1.25 (2005 PPP) per person per day threshold in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 6 characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys.................................................................................................................................. 49 Table 4.3b: Comparison of depth of poverty at the $1.25 (2005 PPP) per person per day threshold in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys.................................................................................................................................. 50 Table 4.4 Total (absolute) poverty line in Birr (average price).................................................. 51 Table 4.5: Comparison of prevalence of poverty at the national threshold of 13.02 Birr (baseline) 18.66 Birr (end-line) in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end￾line ZOI Surveys................................................................................................................. 52 Table 5.1a. Comparison of household hunger in the PI-ZOI, by severity, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys................................................................................................. 54 Table 5.1b. Comparison of household hunger between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys......................................................................... 55 Table 5.2. Women’s mean and median dietary diversity scores in the P1-ZOI...................... 57 Table 5.3. Percentage of women of reproductive age achieving minimum dietary diversity in the P1-ZOI...................................................................................................... 59 Table 5.4. Percentage of women who consumed foods in the P1-ZOI, by achievement of minimum dietary diversity status....................................................... 60 Table 5.5. Comparison of women’s dietary diversity between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys............................................................. 61 Table 5.6. Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children 0-5 months in the P1-ZOI .................................................................................................................................. 62 Table 5.7. Prevalence of children 6-23 months who receive a minimum acceptable diet in the P1-ZOI.............................................................................................................. 64 Table 5.8.: Comparison of percent of children 6-23 months of age in the PI-ZOI achieving minimum feeding frequency, dietary diversity, and consuming specified foods, in total and by breastfeeding status and age, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys................................................ 65 Table 5.9. Comparison of children’s dietary intake between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys................................................................................................. 67 Table 6.1. Mean BMI and prevalence of underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese women in the P1-ZOI ................................................................................... 69 Table 6.2 Comparison of the nutritional status of women between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys................................................ 70 Table 6.3. Prevalence of stunting and mean height-for-age z-scores among children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI............................................................................................ 73 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 7 Table 6.4. Prevalence of wasting and mean weight-for-height z-scores among children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI............................................................................ 75 Table 6.5. Prevalence of underweight and mean weight-for-age z-scores among children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI............................................................................ 77 Table 6.6 Comparison of the nutritional status of children between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys................................................ 78 Table 7.1 WEAI domains, indicators and definitions of adequacy............................................. 81 Table 7.2a: Comparison of average percent of primary adult decision-makers in the PI-ZOI achieving adequacy in the 10 WEAI indicators, using censored headcounts, by sex and age, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end￾line ZOI Surveys................................................................................................................. 82 Table 7.2b: Comparison of adequate achievement in each WEAI indicator in PI-ZOI using censored headcount ratios, by sex and age, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys......................................................................... 84 Table 7.2c. Comparison of WEAI, 5DE and GPI scores, and average empowerment gap in the PI-ZOI, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys.................................................................................................................................. 86 Table 7.3. Participation in economic activities and input into activity decision-making among female and male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey.................................................................................................................... 89 Table 7.4a. Household and female and male primary adult decision-maker ownership of productive resources in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey ........................................... 91 Table 7.4b. Household and female and male primary adult decision-maker control over productive resources in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey....................................... 92 Table 7.5a. Access to credit among female primary adult decision-makers in the P￾ZOI end-line Survey........................................................................................................... 93 Table 7.5b. Access to credit among male primary adult decision-makers in the P1- ZOI end-line Survey........................................................................................................... 93 Table 7.6. Input into decision-making on use of income among male and female primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey................................ 94 Table 7.7a. Group membership among female and male primary adult decision￾makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey .......................................................................... 95 Table 7.7b. Comfort with speaking in public among female and male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey.......................................................... 96 Table 7.8a. Time allocation among female primary adult decision-makers in the P1- ZOI end-line Survey........................................................................................................... 97 Table 7.8b. Time allocation among male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey.................................................................................................................... 98 Table A1.1. ZOI Survey 2018 Feed the Future indicator estimates...........................................103 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 8 Table A1.2. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index results for indicators that compose the 5 domains of empowerment, using uncensored headcount ratios ...................................................................................................................................104 Table A2.1: Household composition of the EA sample ................................................................. 109 Table A2.2: Feed the Future sample woredas, grouped by Feed the Future program...........109 Table A2.3: Feed the Future sample households, planned by region..........................................110 List of Figures Figure 1.1. Map of Ethiopia: Feed the Future P1-ZOI .................................................................... 16 Figure 4.1. Share of consumption per quintile: Feed the Future P1-ZOI................................... 45 Figure 7.1: Contribution of each indicator to the disempowerment of women and men in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey................................................................................ 87 Figure 7.2a: Contribution of each of the five domains to the disempowerment of women in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey.......................................................................... 88 Figure 7.2b: Contribution of each of the five domains to the disempowerment of men in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey......................................................................................... 88 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 9 List of Acronyms 5DE Five Domains of Empowerment A-WEAI Abbreviated Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index BFS Bureau for Food Security BMI body mass index CI confidence interval CPI Consumer Price Index DEFF design effect DHS Demographic and Health Survey EA Enumeration area FTFMS Feed the Future Monitoring System GPI Gender Parity Index HHS Household Hunger Scale IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute LCU local currency unit LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey M&E monitoring and evaluation MAD minimum acceptable diet MDD-W Women’s Minimum Dietary Diversity MDG Millennium Development Goal PBS population-based survey P1-ZOI Phase One Zone of Influence PPP purchasing power parity PPS probability proportional to size SD standard deviation SDG Sustainable Development Goals UNDP United Nations Development Program UNICEF United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States Dollar WDDS Women’s Dietary Diversity Score WEAI Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index WHO World Health Organization ZOI Zone of Influence Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 10 Executive Summary Background Feed the Future seeks to reduce poverty, hunger and undernutrition among women and children, and to increase income, resilience, women’s empowerment, dietary diversity and appropriate feeding practices, and hygienic environments. Program efforts are designed to impact the population in zones of influence (ZOI) in Feed the Future target countries. Progress in achieving Feed the Future’s objectives is tracked using population-based performance indicators collected at baseline then periodically thereafter. This assessment reports Feed the Future’s population-based phase one indicators from the Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence (ZOI) Survey 2018. The 2018 survey serves as the end-line survey for phase one of Feed the Future. The assessment compares indicator estimates and selected demographic and household characteristics from the 2018 ZOI Survey with those obtained from the baseline survey conducted in 2013 to assess trends and to test for statistically significant differences between the two time periods in the phase one ZOI (P1-ZOI) in Ethiopia. The assessment includes only Feed the Future phase one indicators that were reported at baseline and for which comparable baseline and end-line survey data are available. The Feed the Future P1-ZOI in Ethiopia includes rural areas in Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Somali and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s (SNNP) regions (see Figure 1.1). This end-line assessment will provide the United States Government interagency partners, USAID Bureau for Food Security (BFS), USAID Missions, host country governments and development partners with information about long-term progress of the Feed the Future population-based PI￾ZOI indicators in Ethiopia. The assessment is designed for use as a monitoring tool, and as such provides indicator point estimates that were generated to have an acceptable level of statistical precision. The assessment is designed to also measure changes in indicator estimates and select demographic and household characteristics from the Feed the Future baseline ZOI Survey, which was conducted in 2013. Feed the Future ZOI Survey sample calculations, however, are not designed to support conclusions of causality or program attribution. The Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 End-line Assessment is a product of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which is responsible for specific elements of performance monitoring and impact evaluation supporting the Feed the Future initiative. ZOI Survey 2018 Phase One End-line Assessment Indicators The Feed the Future phase one population-based ZOI indicators included in this assessment are: 1. Daily per capita expenditures (2010 USD) Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 11 2. Prevalence of poverty: Percent of people living on less than $1.25/day 2005 PPP 3. Depth of poverty: Mean percent shortfall of the poor relative to the $1.25/day 2005 PPP poverty line 4. Prevalence of moderate and severe hunger 5. Women dietary diversity: Mean number of food groups consumed by women of reproductive age 6. Prevalence of underweight women of reproductive age 7. Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age 8. Prevalence of stunted children under 5 years of age 9. Prevalence of wasted children under 5 years of age 10. Prevalence of children 6-23 months receiving a minimum acceptable diet 11. Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding of children under 6 months of age 12. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) Data for measuring the prevalence of anemia among women of reproductive age and the prevalence of anemia among children 6-59 months and consumption of targeted nutrient-rich value chain commodities were not collected for the Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 and therefore are not included in this assessment. ZOI Survey 2018 Assessment Data Sources Data for the ZOI indicators presented in this assessment are drawn from two sources: baseline and end-line household surveys conducted in June/July in 2013 and September/October 2018, respectively. The 2018 Ethiopia ZOI Survey was conducted by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in conjunction with its data collection partner, BST Consulting PLC. (BST for short), with some support (enumerator recruitment, logistics and survey equipment) from the Central Statistics Agency (CSA). Fieldwork for the ZOI Survey took place between September and October 2018. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 12 Summary of Key Findings Household Economic Status The daily per capita expenditures in the Feed the Future ZOI in 2018 was $2.19 (in 2010 USD) – a level that is statistically significantly higher than the level at the baseline ($1.77). The population that fell below the $1.25/day (2005 PPP) poverty line was 32.3 percent in 2018 and lower than the 39.9 percent recorded in 2013. This decline in the prevalence of poverty is statistically significant. The depth of poverty is estimated at 12.2 percent for 2018 and 13.2 percent for 2013. However, this difference is not statistically significant. Hunger and Dietary Intake Prevalence of households with moderate or severe hunger is 3.3 percent in the end-line, and this is statistically significantly lower relative to the prevalence in the baseline, 4.9 percent. The dietary diversity in the ZOI has been and remains low. Nevertheless, there has been considerable improvements during the 2013-2018 period. Women of reproductive age consume from an average of 2.32 food groups in a day in 2018. This is nearly a 50 percent, statistically significant, increase relative to the corresponding figure in 2013 (1.59 food groups). Only 1.84 percent of women achieve the minimum dietary diversity or consume from at least five food groups in the baseline while this number increased to 4.64 percent in the end-line, or by over 150 percent during the 2013-2018 period (Table 5.5). Only 3.4 percent of children 6-23 months old received a minimum acceptable diet in 2013 while the proportion more than doubled to 8.4 percent in 2018. Both of these changes are statistically significant. Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children under 6 months of age is stayed high in Ethiopia at about 74 percent in 2018 with little change during the period. Nutritional Status of Women and Children Nearly 22 percent of women of reproductive age are underweight in 2018, and this is statistically significantly lower than the 26 percent in 2013. The prevalence of severely underweight women declined even more considerably, by nearly 40 percent, from 3.8 percent in 2013 to 2.3 percent in 2018. Prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years of age was about 39 percent in 2018, which, relative to the 50.3 percent in 2013, was 23 percent lower. The prevalence of wasting among children under 5 years of age declined by 31 percent from over 14 percent in 2013 to 9.7 percent in 2018. Similarly, the proportion of underweight children declined from 31.5 percent in 2013 to 22.5 percent in 2018. The changes reported for all three child anthropometric measures are statistically significant. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Women’s empowerment is measured through the full Women Empowerment in Agricultural Index (WEAI). In 2018, the WEAI for the ZOI in Ethiopia is estimated as 0.75 and did not change Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 13 significantly from 2013. Access to and input into decisions on credit is a major constraint to women’s empowerment. Lack of leisure time, group membership and speaking in public are also among important contributors to women’s disempowerment. Baseline and end-line estimates of indicator values in the ZOI are shown in Table ES1 below. The main takeaway from the table is that most indicators are improving and some considerably. Further analysis is in subsequent chapters. Table ES1: Feed the Future PI-ZOI indicator estimates, by key disaggregates: Ethiopia 2013-2018 Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾valueb Sig.c Indicator Est. 95% CI na Est. 95% CI na Mean daily per capita consumption expenditure in constant 2010 USD (2005 PPP) All households 1.77 1.70-1.84 4,618 2.19 2.10-2.27 3,876 0.42 0.000 *** Gendered household type Male and female adults 1.73 1.65-1.81 3,534 2.21 2.12-2.31 3,089 0.48 0.000 *** Female adults only 1.89 1.74-1.99 855 1.95 1.79-2.11 665 0.08 0.383 n/s Male adults only 2.35 2.06-2.63 224 2.05 1.53-2.56 115 -0.35 0.250 n/s Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Prevalence of poverty: Percentage of people living on less than $1.25/day (2005 PPP) All households 39.9 38.5-41.4 4618 32.3 30.8-33.8 3,876 -7.6 0.000 *** Gendered household type Male and female adults 40.4 38.8-42.0 3,534 31.3 29.6-32.9 3,089 -9.1 0.000 *** Female adults only 38.9 35.6-42.2 855 40.8 37.1-44.6 665 1.9 0.504 n/s Male adults only 31 24.9-37.1 224 36.3 27.3-45.1 115 5.3 0.445 n/s Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Depth of poverty: Mean percent shortfall relative to the $1.25/day poverty line (2005 PPP) All households 13.2 12.6-13.8 4,618 12.2 11.4-12.8 3,876 -1.0 0.054 n/s Gendered household type Male and female adults 13.3 12.6-14.0 3,534 11.7 10.9-12.5 3,089 -1.6 0.010 * Female adults only 13.2 11.7-14.6 855 15.8 13.9-17.6 665 2.6 0.058 n/s Male adults only 9.7 7.3-12.1 224 12.5 8.5-16.4 115 2.8 0.279 n/s Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Indexd All women 0.702 0.69-0.72 3265 0.750 0.75-0.76 3047 0.052 0.000 *** Woman’s age 18-29 years 0.705 0.68-0.71 1194 0.720 0.72-0.73 612 0.015 0.000 *** 30 years or older 0.690 0.69-0.72 2071 0.760 0.76-0.77 2435 0.066 0.000 *** Prevalence of moderate and severe hunger All households 4.9 3.8-6.2 4,224 3.3 2.6-4.2 3,888 -1.6 0.014 * Gendered household type Male and female adults 3.7 2.8-5.0 3,235 2.5 1.9-3.3 3,105 -1.2 * * Female adults only 9.2 7.0-12.1 776 6.8 5.0-9.3 661 -2.4 n/s n/s Male adults only 7.0 4.0-11.8 209 6.6 3.1-13.4 116 -0.4 n/s n/s Children only ^ ^ 4 ^ ^ 6 ^ ^ ^ Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 14 Women’s dietary diversity: Mean number of food groups consumed by women of reproductive agee All women 15-49 years of age 1.59 1.5-1.7 3,978 2.32 2.2-2.4 3,956 0.8 0.000 *** Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children under 6 months of agee All children 72.2 65.2-78.3 204 74.5 63.5-83.0 111 2,3 0.709 n/s Child’s sex Male 71.5 61.5-79.7 96 73.9 58.9-84.8 57 2.4 0.778 n/s Female 72.9 62.2-81.4 108 75.1 62.0-84.8 54 2.2 0.769 n/s Prevalence of children 6-23 months of age receiving a minimum acceptable diete All children 3.4 2.0 - 5.7 633 8.4 6.4-11.0 639 5.0 0.003 ** Child’s sex Male 3.5 1.6 -7.6 328 7.5 5.0-11.1 324 4.0 0.081 n/s Female 3.3 1.7 -6.4 305 9.3 6.4-13.1 315 6.0 0.007 ** Prevalence of underweight women of reproductive agee All non-pregnant women 15-49 years of age 26.0 23.8-28.3 3,517 21.9 19.9-24.0 3,604 -4.1 0.002 ** Prevalence of stunted children under 5 years of agee All children 50.3 47.2-53.5 1,553 38.9 36.1-41.8 1,963 -11.4 0.000 *** Child’s sex Male 52.9 48.7-57.1 778 38.8 34.9-42.8 976 -14.1 0.000 *** Female 47.7 43.6-51.8 775 39 35.8-42.3 987 -8.7 0.001 ** Prevalence of wasted children under 5 years of agee All children 14.1 11.9-16.6 1,471 9.7 7.8-12.0 1,916 -4.4 0.010 ** Child’s sex Male 14.3 11.8-17.3 733 11.0 8.7-13.9 950 -3.3 0.101 n/s Female 13.9 11.1-17.2 738 8.4 6.3-11.2 966 -5.5 0.007 ** Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of agee All children 31.5 28.6-34.6 2,102 22.5 20.5-24.6 2,153 -9 0.000 *** Child’s sex Male 32.2 29.1-35.3 1,050 23.9 21.2-26.7 1,071 -8.3 0.000 *** Female 30.9 26.9-32.3 1,052 21.1 18.7-23.7 1,082 -9.8 0.000 *** Est.=estimate, n/a=not available, CI=confidence interval ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates at the overall indicator level. . c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. d The full Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) was calculated at baseline and end-line. e Estimates are based on de facto household members. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on de jure household members, except where noted. Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 15 1. Background This chapter provides background information on Feed the Future in Ethiopia, including a description of the program and the Feed the Future phase one Zone of Influence (P1-ZOI), demographic information on the P1-ZOI population and a summary of the agriculture situation in the P1-ZOI. 1.1 Feed the Future Overview Feed the Future is a major United States Government program that aims to address the root causes of global hunger by sustainably increasing agricultural productivity to meet the demand for food, supporting and facilitating access to markets, and increasing incomes for the rural poor so they can meet their food and other needs, including reducing malnutrition. Ethiopia has been designated a priority country for the Feed the Future Initiative. It is within this context that USAID Mission Ethiopia has developed an approved Feed the Future strategy, which is being implemented by a host of implementing partners. The Feed the Future program requires each USAID Feed the Future Mission to focus and concentrate its efforts in a defined area of coverage – the Zone of Influence (ZOI) – in order to measure impact. The ZOI for USAID Mission Ethiopia comprises the 149 woredas where the Feed the Future projects are implemented over the 5 years period of 2013-2017 (see Figure 1.1 below). As part of its Feed the Future strategy, USAID has made a strong commitment to timely and high-quality assessments aimed at providing information and analysis that prevents mistakes from being repeated; and increases the possibility that future investments will yield even more benefits than previous investments. As part of this commitment, each USAID Mission is required to conduct a Population Based Survey (PBS) across its ZOI. 1.2 Feed the Future P1-ZOI Profile The geographic focus of the Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 data collection for the phase one end-line analysis is the P1-ZOI—the geographic area where the Feed the Future program is expected to have an impact on hunger, poverty and nutrition during phase one of the program. The P1-ZOI geographic area has not changed since the baseline survey in 2013. However, the Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 could not be fielded in the five woredas of Somali region due to the instability in the region during the period leading up to and including the end-line survey. The ZOI in Ethiopia consists only rural households in five regions: Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Somali and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s region. The total population in the Feed the Future ZOI is 17.5 million individuals, residing in 4.1 million households in 2018 (not including the Somali sub-population due to the difficulty of conducting the PBS in that region during the Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 16 end-line). In terms of the agro-ecological zones, Feed the Future in Ethiopia operates in “drought prone,” “moisture reliable” and “pastoral” areas (Figure 1.1). A map of the Feed the Future P1-ZOI in Ethiopia is provided in Figure 1.1. The five program areas identified on the map together constitute the P1-ZOI. Figure 1.1. Map of Ethiopia: Feed the Future P1-ZOI Note: AGP = Agricultural Growth Program, GRAD = Graduation with Resilience to Achieve Sustainable Development, PRIME = Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement through Market Expansion 1.2.1 Rationale for P1-ZOI Selection To define the ZOI, Feed the Future Ethiopia selected woredas that are conducive for agricultural growth (e.g. AGP activities), where investments create a “pull” factor, or those characterized by high levels of chronic food insecurity and/or pastoralist areas, where market components create a “push” factor. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 17 1.2.2 Demography of the P1-ZOI Tables 1.1 and 1.2 present individual and household population estimates, respectively, for the P1-ZOI in 2018 based on the panel PBS conducted in 2018 by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in conjunction with BST Consulting PLC., with some support from the Central Statistics Agency. Estimates of the total population as well as sub-populations of the ZOI are presented. The sub-population categories correspond to the various sub-populations for the Feed the Future indicators and disaggregates. The ZOI estimates for the total population of individuals as well as households are also disaggregated by gendered household type.1 First, a brief note on how the 2018 population estimates and disaggregates were obtained. The baseline population and sub-populations were estimated using the sample survey and the sample weights derived from the population census and the complete listing of households in each surveyed enumeration area (EA). In short, the sample levels were inflated by the inverse of the selection probabilities for each EA as inflation factors (or weights). Given a panel sample, the same procedure cannot be followed for the end-line for three reasons – attrition, demographic changes in sample households (marriages, divorces, age profile, etc.), and population growth. These changes make the sample less representative of the population given the passage of 5 years between the baseline and the end-line. It is thus necessary to use a different procedure to estimate the ZOI’s population in 2018. Recall that population growth by gendered household types or other demographic categories of Tables 1.1-1.2 are not available from the Census. The simplest and most feasible approach is thus followed. The common national population growth rates for the 2014-2018 period provide the basic ingredient for the estimation. The growth rates were computed from CSA’s medium variant of projections (2008-2037) based on its Intercensal Population Survey of 2012 (2.46 percent, 2.41 percent, 2.36 percent, 2.31 percent, and 2.28 percent per year, respectively, for 2014-2018). These growth rates were used to go from the 2013 population to the 2018 population with the assumption that the average household size remains the same during the period. The same procedure is used for estimation of the population of households. The resulting estimates are reported in the Tables 1.1 and 1.2 below. In this regard, it is important to keep in mind the limits to the representativeness of the sample noted above. This is particularly critical in making direct comparisons across baseline and end￾line using data in Tables1.1 and 1.2. In 2018, the total ZOI population (excluding the Somali Feed the Future woredas) is estimated to be nearly 17.5 million individuals in 4.1 million households, all residing in rural areas of Ethiopia. More than 88 percent of the people in ZOI reside in households that contain both male and 1 See Section 2.2.1 Standard Disaggregates for the definition of gendered household type. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 18 female adults. Moreover, the ZOI consists about 1.7 million children who are less than 5 years of age and nearly 3.2 million women of reproductive age. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 19 Table 1.1: Population of Individuals in the PI-ZOI, by Category, Ethiopia 2013-2018 Category of individuals Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Na Percent Na Percent Total number of individuals 15,563,872 100 17,489,900 100 Total number of individuals, by key sub-population Children 0-5 months 162,689 1.0 86,651 0.5 Children 0-23 months 672,018 4.3 588,691 3.4 Children 6-23 months 509,329 3.3 502,040 2.9 Children 0-59 months 1,993,095 12.8 1,714,885 9.8 Youth 15-29 years 3,990,272 25.6 3,964,116 22.7 Women of reproductive age 3,285,838 21.1 3,151,115 18.0 Primary adult female 2,679,107 17.2 2,518,136 14.4 Total number of individuals, by residenceb Urban n/a n/a n/a n/a Rural 15,563,872 100 17,489,900 100 Total number of individuals, by gendered household type Male and female adults 13,198,163 84.8 15,496,051 88.6 Female adults only 1,914,356 12.3 1,703,516 9.7 Male adults only 435,788 2.8 265,846 1.5 Children only ^ ^ ^ ^ Children 0-5 months, by sex Male 76,045 0.5 43,492 0.2 Female 86,644 0.6 43,159 0.2 Children 0-23 months, by sex Male 336,971 2.2 299,045 1.7 Female 335,047 2.2 289,646 1.7 Children 6-23 months, by sex Male 260,926 1.7 255,553 1.5 Female 248,403 1.6 246,487 1.4 Children 0-59 months, by sex Male 982,706 6.3 859,163 4.9 Female 1,010,390 6.5 855,722 4.9 Youth 15-29 years, by sex Male 1,988,576 12.8 2,127,707 12.2 Female 2,001,695 12.9 1,836,407 10.5 Women of reproductive age, by pregnancy statusc Pregnant 306,339 2.0 267,634 1.5 Non-pregnant 2,809,145 18.0 2,828,049 16.2 Primary adult female decision-makers, by age 18-29 years 965,494 6.2 502,276 2.9 30 years or older 1,722,013 11.1 2,032,593 11.6 Source: Feed the Future Base line Survey of Ethiopia, 2013; Feed the Future End-line Survey of Ethiopia, 2018. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. a Number of individuals in the population b The urban/rural disaggregate uses the Ethiopia-specific definition of urban and rural reflected in the sampling frame at the time the sample was drawn. C The number of pregnant and non-pregnant women of reproductive age do not sum up to the total number because 0.1 percent did not know their pregnancy status and 1 percent did not want to reply in 2013. The respective numbers were 0.1 and 0.3 percent in 2018. Note: Population growth rates from CSA’s intercensal projections. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 20 Table 1.2. Number of households, by category, in the P1-ZOI, Ethiopia 2018 Category of households End-line (2018) Percenta N Total number of households 100 4,099,092 Male and female adults 79.8 3,272,715 Female adults only 17.1 702,584 Male adults only 2.8 116,414 Children only ^ ^ Urban - - Rural 100 4,099,092 Tigray 6.2 253,734 Amhara 32.9 1,346,552 Oromiya 40.4 1,654,394 SNNP 20.6 844,413 Source: Feed the Future End-line Survey of Ethiopia, 2018. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. Note: Regional population growth rates were from CSA’s intercensal projections. 1.2.3 Agriculture in the P1-ZOI The ZOI in Ethiopia is large and agro-climatic conditions vary enormously. The four main regions, Amhara, Oromia, Tigray and SNNP, are mostly located in the highlands (with relatively large fractions of Oromiya and SNNP in the lowlands). In contrast, the Somali region is in the lowlands. Agriculture in the ZOI is largely rainfed. While most areas rely on only one rainy season (meher), some areas in the country cultivate in two rainy seasons (meher and belg). An average household in the ZOI cultivated about a hectare of land. This average masks the considerable heterogeneity in landholding sizes across the ZOI. About 96 percent of the households in the ZOI practice crop-agriculture. Crop-agriculture in Ethiopia is heavily focused on cereal production with the five most important cereals being teff, barley, wheat, maize and sorghum. Coffee is the most important non-teff cash crop. The southern part of the country also cultivates enset that forms an important part of the diet in that area. About 88 percent of all households in the ZOI own livestock. The average household owns about 4.7 Tropical Livestock Units (TLU). The major risks and constraints that households face in livestock production are water shortages, livestock diseases and lack of grazing land. With regard to marketing of crop output, livestock and livestock products in the Feed the Future ZOI, more than half of the sample households in 2018 sold part of their produced crop output Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 21 with notable differences across various crop categories. The percentage of households who sold livestock and livestock products is around 34 percent and 23 percent, respectively. 1.3 Purpose of this Assessment The purpose of this assessment is to provide the United States Government interagency partners, USAID/BFS, USAID Missions, host country government and development partners with information to monitor long-term progress of the Feed the Future phase one population-based ZOI indicators. The assessment is designed for use as a monitoring tool, and as such provides indicator point estimates that were generated to have an acceptable level of statistical precision. The assessment is designed to also measure changes in indicator estimates and select demographic and household characteristics from the Feed the Future baseline ZOI Survey, which was conducted in 2013. Feed the Future ZOI Survey sample calculations, however, are not designed to support conclusions of causality or program attribution. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 22 2. Methodologies for Obtaining 2018 Values for Feed the Future Indicators This chapter describes the methodology used to obtain the Feed the Future population-based ZOI indicators. It provides information on the data sources and describes measures and reporting conventions used throughout the report. 2.1 Data Sources Data for all the ZOI indicators presented in this assessment are drawn from two sources: Feed the Future baseline and end-line household surveys. As noted elsewhere in the report, these surveys took place June/July 2013 and September/October 2018, respectively. 2.1.1 Primary Data: The Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 This section describes the Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018, including discussion of the sample design and sample size, questionnaire customization, fieldwork, response rates and limitations of the survey. Appendix 2.1 provides additional details on the sampling and weighting methodology. Survey Sample Design The Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 included a panel of households that were initially selected in the baseline survey of 2013. In other words, the ZOI end-line survey was a panel survey that covered the same households selected at baseline (in 2013) via a multi-stage cluster sampling design.2 Though it started in 2013 as a representative, random sample of the entire population living in the P1-ZOI, attrition and demographic changes since then made it less representative. Nevertheless, the design ensured that the total sample size included the necessary number of households in the P1-ZOI to assess changes in phase one indicators from the 2013 ZOI Survey to the 2018 ZOI Survey. At baseline, woredas (or districts) were randomly selected in the first sampling stage from among woredas in the ZOI using proportions derived from population size and Feed the Future-funded project coverage. More specifically, the woreda composition of the sample was made to reflect the distribution of Feed the Future-supported projects by using the percentage of Feed the Future’s ZOI (or woredas) each major Feed the Future project covered as a basis of its share in the sample. Three enumeration areas (EAs) were then selected from each woreda using probability proportional to size (PPS) methodology. Finally, households were randomly selected in each EA from a complete list of households prepared specifically for the survey through a 2 The FTF baseline survey report (Bachewe et al., 2014) describes the sample design and selection in detail. Additional information is also available in section A2.1 below. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 23 complete household listing exercise. The Feed the Future baseline survey report (Bachewe et al., 2014) discusses the considerations and assumptions in the determination of sample size for the Feed the Future baseline. The Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI end-line survey conducted in 2018 is a panel survey that followed the same sample households covered by the Feed the Future baseline survey in 2013. Upon USAID’s decision that the end-line survey should be restricted to households residing in the Feed the Future ZOI woredas, IFPRI prepared to conduct the Feed the Future end-line survey in those 56 woredas selected at the baseline. However, due to considerable insecurity in the Somali region during the period leading up to the survey, the five woredas in that region could not be covered by the end-line survey. Consequently, the survey covered 51 of the 56 Feed the Future ZI woredas. The issue this raises is discussed in section A2.1 in the annex. Questionnaire Design Two questionnaires were developed for the Feed the Future end-line survey. These are the household questionnaire and the community questionnaire.3 The core of the household survey instrument consists of the modules found in the standardized survey instrument developed by the Analytics and Learning Division in USAID’s Bureau of Resilience and Food Security. These were modified to suit the circumstances in Ethiopia. Additional modules were also included for two primary reasons. First, it is necessary to obtain detailed information on the livelihood characteristics and options of the households and communities in order to capture the context within which Feed the Future investments occur. Second, such data are also required towards answering some of the questions in Feed the Future’s Learning Agenda.4 The household questionnaire’s modules are: a. Household identification cover sheet b. Household roster and demographics c. Dwelling characteristics d. Household consumption expenditure e. Household hunger scale f. Women’s empowerment in agriculture index g. Women’s anthropometry and dietary diversity h. Child anthropometry and infant and young child feeding 3 A copy of the household questionnaire is available as part of the Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence End￾line Survey data asset in USAID’s Development Data Library at https://data.usaid.gov/. 4 Consequently, data collected in some of the additional modules of the household questionnaire as well as data collected via the community survey are not used in this report, which is focused on reporting on Feed the Future’s standard indicators. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 24 i. Agricultural productivity and input use j. Crop utilization k. Agricultural extension, technology and information networks l. Livestock ownership and income from livestock and livestock products m. Shocks and resilience n. Off-farm income and business activities – own business activities o. Trust, control and agency p. Household assets q. Transfers/gifts The community questionnaire provides information on community- or Kebele-level resources that will affect take-up of Feed the Future interventions. Modules in the community questionnaire include: a. Site identification b. Location and access c. Water and electricity d. Services (general) e. Education and health services f. Production, marketing and extension g. Local wages and input costs h. Current and last year food prices i. Public works j. Migration k. Perceived changes in production and input uses l. Government of Ethiopia and/or Feed the Future programs/projects operating in the locality or Kebele (e.g., the PSNP, AGP) The IFPRI team in collaboration with the BST taskforce worked on the preparation of survey instruments based on the generic Feed the Future household questionnaire. Before the actual field work, IFPRI research staff, 56 supervisors from BST and CSA trainers commented on the household questionnaire. In parallel, the Computer-aided personal interviewing (CAPI) version was developed as an CSPro application or program. The program was put through a series of rigorous tests and modified as necessary. This process continued until the end of the enumerators’ training process. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 25 Fieldwork i. Training Prior to fieldwork, all field staff were trained on survey procedures, including preparing for fieldwork, questionnaire content, human subjects protection, fieldwork procedures, data management, reporting and communications. Training included hands-on training and practice sessions that covered use of all technical equipment that was used in the survey, as well as a tablet pretest and a survey pilot test. Training of trainers (all CSA staff participating on their individual capacity) and BST supervisors was conducted during Aug. 8-10, 2018, at the International Livestock Research Institute compound in Addis Ababa. The training was conducted by a team composed of IFPRI and CSA staff (again participating in their individual capacity). This training of trainers (ToT) helped to refine the survey instrument further. The main training (or training of enumerators) was conducted at the Ethiopian Civil Service University during Aug. 20-Sept. 4, 2018. The enumerators selected for fieldwork at the relevant CSA branches traveled to Addis Ababa during Aug. 17-19, 2018. The training involved going through the substantive aspects of the questionnaires module by module and was based on the CAPI versions of the questionnaires. Sessions dedicated to anthropometric data collection and data transfer protocols have been part of the training program. This was particularly true of the household questionnaire, which was implemented in digital form. A mock interview at the end of the training helped in reinforcing what was learned during training as well as finding any remaining bugs in the program. All parts of the training were implemented successfully as planned. The training was completed in 15 days as planned (with a 1-day break for the Arafa Holiday). ii. Data collection Data were collected using the two questionnaires described earlier – household and community (with price modules) questionnaires. As noted above, BST had the responsibilty for fielding the survey with IFPRI’s leadership. The IFPRI team also traveled to sample sites to assess implementation and help solve unanticipated problems in the field. IFPRI’s supervision of survey implementation proved crucial as in previous surveys, particularly for data saving and transfer. A major task embedded with data collection was data transfer. The digital household data collected using CAPI questionnaire had to be regularly transferred during the data collection period to IFPRI. Three objectives were to be achieved by doing so: to detect and correct collection errors as quickly as possible; to reduce the likelihood of data loss; and to maintain the integrity of the collected data. A purposely designed transfer protocol was adopted. For the most Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 26 part data transfer from the field was conducted as planned. However, poor internet connection and remoteness of survey areas resulted in cases in which the data were transferred irregularly. The planned length of the data collection was 25 days during Sept. 7-Oct. 2, 2018 (with a 1-day break for the Ethiopian New Year). This was achieved in many areas. However, two additional days were required in some woredas due to longer travel time and the use of paper questionnaire. Consequently, the data collection was completed on Oct. 4, 2018. As planned, all interviewed households were administered the CAPI version of the questionnaire with the exception of Chilga woreda, Amhara region. A number of households in two EAs of that woreda were interviewed using the paper version of the questionnaire. The CAPI version of the questionnaire could not be administered because enumerators were unable to recharge their netbook batteries due to lack of access to electricity. The enumerators latter transferred the paper-based data collected from the households onto the CAPI. The household data collected using a CAPI-based questionnaire was delivered by BST for IFPRI in the two weeks after the completion of the survey. In contrast, BST completed the entry and basic cleaning of the community data and transferred them to IFPRI on Nov. 23, 2018. ZOI Survey Response Rates for 2013 and 2018 Table 2.2 presents the response rates for the Feed the Future Ethiopia Survey 2018 in the P1- ZOI. The components and the response rates for the sampled households, women of reproductive age (15-49 years), primary adult male and female decision-makers, and children under 5 years are also presented. The numbers indicate an attrition rate of 8.5 percent or only 8.5 percent of the households selected in 2013 were not surveyed in 2018. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 27 Table 2.2. Comparison of results of household and individual interviews in the PI-ZOI, in total, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Response rate Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Households Number of households selected 4,704 4,251 Number of households occupied 4,635 3,908 Number of households interviewed 4,245 3,890 Household response rate (%)a 91.5 99.5 Women of reproductive age (15-49 years) Number of eligible women 4,172 4,011 Number of eligible women interviewed 4,172 4,011 Eligible women response rate (%)b 100 100 Primary adult female decision-makers (18+ years) Number of eligible women 3,466 3,252 Number of eligible women interviewed 3,466 3,252 Eligible women response rate (%)b 100 100 Primary adult male decision-makers (18+ years) Number of eligible men 2,998 2,527 Number of eligible men interviewed 2,998 2,527 Eligible men response rate (%)b 100 100 Children under 5 years of age Number of eligible children 2,571 2,209 Number of caregivers of eligible children interviewed 1,956 1,673 Eligible children response rate (%)b 100 100 Children under 2 years of age Number of eligible children 869 759 Number of caregivers of eligible children interviewed 847 743 Eligible children response rate (%)b 100 100 a Household response rates are calculated based on the result codes of Module 1, the household roster, and are defined as the number of households interviewed divided by the number of households occupied. Households that were found to be vacant, not a dwelling unit, or destroyed were considered unoccupied and thus excluded from the response rates. b Individual response rates are calculated based on the result codes in the relevant individual modules (Modules 4, 5, and 6). These rates are defined as the number of eligible individuals interviewed divided by the number of eligible individuals. Eligibility determination for Modules 4, 5, and 6 is initiated in the household roster and confirmed in the respective module. (Note that for children under 5 years of age [Module 5], the primary caregivers of the children served as the respondents, not the children directly.) Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 2.1.2 Comparability of Data Sources Used for the Feed the Future Phase One Baseline and End-line ZOI Survey Assessment This section discusses the comparability across data sources for the Feed the Future PI-ZOI indicators, and comparability of data sources used for the baseline and end-line surveys. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 28 Seasonality The Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI end-line survey was conducted during Sept. 7-Oct. 4, 2018, while the baseline survey was conducted during June 14-July 12, 2013. To ascertain the potential impact of seasonality, it is essential to compare access to food during June/July with September (during which the bulk of the end-line survey took place). The three months fall under the “hunger season,” particularly in crop-producing highlands.5 Also important is the fact that most of the ZOI as well as the sample are located in these highland areas. Outcome variables across the two surveys are thus reasonably comparable. Table 2.3: Season in which data collection took place for Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line, by indicator Indicator Season of data collection Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Daily per capita expenditures (2010 USD) June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of poverty: Percent of people living on less than $1.25/day (2005 PPP) June – July Sept. – Oct. Depth of poverty: Mean percentage shortfall of the poor relative to the $1.25/day (2005 PPP) poverty line June – July Sept. – Oct. Abbreviated Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of moderate and severe hunger June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding of children under 6 months of age June – July Sept. – Oct. Percent of children 6-23 months of age receiving a minimum acceptable diet June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of women of reproductive age consuming a diet of minimum diversity June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of stunted children under 5 years of age June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of wasted children under 5 years of age June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age June – July Sept. – Oct. Prevalence of underweight women of reproductive age June – July Sept. – Oct. PPP=purchasing power parity Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Baseline Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI End-line Survey 2018 Other Issues Regarding Comparability As indicated above, IFPRI prepared to conduct the Feed the Future end-line survey in the 56 woredas in the Feed the Future ZOI. However, due to considerable insecurity in the Somali region during the period leading up to the survey, IFPRI, with the advice of the CSA, decided to exclude the five woredas in that region from the end-line survey. Consequently, the Feed the Future end-line survey covered 51 of the 56 Feed the Future ZOI woredas and therefore the Feed the Future end-line survey dataset excludes the Somali region. Consequently, all outcome variables provided in Sections 3 through 7 exclude the Somali region for both baseline (2013) and end-line (2018) periods. 5 See for instance: LIU (2010). An Atlas of Ethiopian Livelihoods. Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU), Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector, Ministry of Agriculture, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 29 2.2 Measures and Reporting Conventions Used Throughout This Report 2.2.1 Standard Disaggregates A standard set of disaggregate variables is used in tables throughout this report. This section lists each of the standard disaggregate variables and defines how each variable is calculated. Age in Years Data on respondent’s age in years is collected in the household roster. For women ages 15-49 and children under 6 years, more detailed age data are collected in subsequent questionnaire modules to confirm eligibility to respond to the module questions; these more detailed age data are used where available. Age is generally presented in the tables in 5- or 10-year age groups. Age in Months The age of children in months is collected in the child nutrition survey module, rather than in the household roster, so that the child’s parent or primary caregiver can be prompted to provide the most accurate age possible. Children’s age in months is presented by age categories for the children’s dietary intake and anthropometry tables. For example, for the minimum acceptable diet table (Table 5.7), presents children’s age disaggregated into 6-month age groups as follows: 6-11 months, 12-17 months and 18-23 months. For the children’s anthropometry tables (Tables 6.3, 6.4, and 6.5), which present the prevalence of stunting, wasting and underweight for all children under 5 years of age, children’s age is disaggregated into 12-month age groups as follows: 0-11 months, 12-23 months, 24-35 months, 36-47 months, and 48-59 months. Sex Sex—male or female—is a standard disaggregate for the tables presenting children’s indicators, e.g., children’s anthropometry (Tables 6.3, 6.4, and 6.5). Educational Attainment (Household) Household educational attainment reflects the highest level of education attained by any member of the household, as reported in the household roster. This variable is used in tables that present household-level data, and comprises four categories: no education (households with no member who has received formal education); less than primary (households with at least one member who has received formal schooling, but with no member who has completed primary or grade 8); primary (households with at least one member who has completed primary, but with no member who has completed secondary); and secondary or more (households with at least one Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 30 member who has completed secondary education). Households are categorized in only one of the four categories. Educational Attainment (Individual) Educational attainment at the individual level reflects the highest level of education attained by individual household members, as reported in the household roster. This variable comprises four categories: no education (those who have not received any formal education), less than primary (those who have received formal education but who have not complete primary); primary (those who have completed primary but have not completed secondary); and secondary or more (those who have completed secondary education). Gendered Household Type The USAID’s Feed the Future M&E Guidance Series Volume 6: Measuring the Gender Impact of Feed the Future notes that household-level indicators should be disaggregated by “gendered household types” – that is: 1) households in which members include both male and female adults (adult is defined as age 18 or older); 2) households in which members include male adult(s), but no female adults; 3) households in which members include female adult(s), but no male adults; and 4) households in which all members are under age 18 (children), i.e., households with children only and no adult members. This approach to conceptualizing household type is distinct from the standard “head of household” approach, which is embedded with presumptions about household gender dynamics and may perpetuate existing social inequalities and prioritization of household responsibilities that may be detrimental to women (USAID 2014:1).6 This variable is calculated using data on age and sex collected in the household roster of the survey questionnaire. Household Hunger As described in greater detail in Section 5.1 of this report, the household hunger scale (HHS) characterizes households according to three categories of hunger severity: little to no household hunger, moderate household hunger, and severe household hunger. For the purposes of serving as a disaggregate in selected tables, the HHS is converted to a dichotomous measure reflecting households that report little to no household hunger, and households that report moderate or severe household hunger. Household Size For the ZOI Survey, household size is defined as the total number of people (adult and children) that live together in the same dwelling unit. They can be related or unrelated, but they 1) 6 United States Agency for International Development (USAID). (2014). Feed the Future M&E Guidance Series. Volume 6: Measuring the Gender Impact of FTF, March. Accessed 27 March 2015 at http://www.feedthefuture.gov/resource/volume-6-feed-future-measuring-gender-impact-guidance. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 31 acknowledge the same person or persons as lead decision-makers for the household; 2) share the same housekeeping and cooking arrangements; 3) share the same contiguous roof; and 4) who stayed in the household the night before the survey (de facto) as opposed to the usual household residents (de jure). This ordinal household size variable is recoded into a categorical variable as follows: small households (1-5 members), medium households (6-10 members), and large households (11 or more members). Note that the definition of household members used in the ZOI Survey may be slightly different from that used in other household surveys. 2.2.2 Reporting Conventions The Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Survey 2018-2019 End-line Assessment is primarily descriptive in nature. This section provides an overview of the conventions used in reporting these descriptive results. • In the tables throughout this report, weighted point estimates and unweighted sample sizes (denoted by “n”) are presented. • Most estimates are shown to one decimal place, with the specific exceptions of per capita expenditures, women’s dietary diversity, WEAI, five domains of empowerment (5DE), and gender parity index (GPI) indicators, which are shown to two decimal places. Unweighted sample sizes in all tables and the population estimates in Tables 1.1 and 1.2 are shown as whole numbers. Values in the tables are suppressed when the unweighted sample size is insufficient to calculate a reliable point estimate (n<30); this is denoted by the use of the symbol “^” in the designated row and an explanatory footnote. Bivariate relationships are described using cross tabulation, and the strength and direction of the relationships are assessed using statistical tests. For continuous variables, a t-test, or test of differences in mean, is used. For categorical variables, Pearson’s chi-squared test, or test of differences in proportions, is used. Explanatory table footnotes clarify the meaning of the significance test annotation, and statistically significant results are highlighted in the narrative throughout the report. Analyses are performed in Stata using “svy” commands to handle features of data collected through the use of complex survey designs, including sampling weights, cluster sampling and stratification. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 32 3. ZOI Survey 2018 P1-ZOI Population This chapter describes the background characteristics of the P1-ZOI population using data from the Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 and documents any changes in demographic and household characteristics that occurred since the baseline survey in 2013. The demographic characteristics of the P1-ZOI population are expected to remain relatively similar over time. 3.1 Demographics Table 3.1a presents demographic characteristics of the households in the P1-ZOI for all households and by gendered household type. This table presents the average household size, as well as the average number of female adults and children within the household. Estimates are also presented by household education, defined as the highest level of education of any member of the household. An average household in the ZOI has five members. All household members of about 17 percent of the households had no education, while at least one member of 0.7 percent households has completed secondary school. A large majority of 56 percent of the households have at least one member with less than primary education while 26 percent have at least one member with primary education. Table 3.1a Household demographic characteristics in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Total (All households) By gendered household type Male and female adult Female adult(s) only Male adult(s) only Child only Mean household size 5.1 5.6 2.9 2.5 ^ Mean number of adult female household members1,2 1.2 1.2 1.2 n/a ^ Mean number of children (<2 years)1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 ^ Mean number of children (0-4 years)1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 ^ Mean number of children (5-17 years)1 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.0 ^ Mean percentage of adults who are female (%)1,2 55.5 48.3 100 n/a ^ Highest education level attained (%) No education 17.4 11.9 38.4 39.7 ^ Less than primary 56.0 57.1 49.9 44.0 ^ Primary 26.0 30.1 11.6 16.4 ^ Secondary or more 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 ^ n3 3,890 3,106 661 116 7 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 The estimate is based on household members with known age. 2 Feed the Future defines adult as an individual age 18 or older. Females age 15-17 are of reproductive age but are not considered adults by this definition. 3 Sample n is the unweighted count of all households that responded to the survey. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 33 Table 3.1b compares the demographic characteristics of the households in the P1-ZOI in the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys. Estimates are shown for all households and include the average household size, as well as the average number of female adults, male adults and children within the household. The percentage of households with a male primary adult decision￾maker and the percentage of households with a female primary adult decision-maker are also provided. Household education, defined as the highest level of education of any member of the household, is also presented in this table. The average household size is slightly higher in 2018 relative to the average in the baseline (2013). Similarly, the average number of adult females and 5-17 years old children is higher in the end-line relative to the respective averages in the baseline. Relative to the baseline, the end-line has a relatively lower proportion of households with a male primary adult decision-makers and a relatively higher proportion of households with a female primary adult decision-maker. However, these changes are not statistically significant. Table 3.1b Comparison of household demographic characteristics between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾value1 Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Sig. Mean household size 4.7 4.6-4.8 5.1 5.0- 5.2 0.0 0.000 *** Mean number of adult male household members2,3 1.1 1.0-1.1 1.2 1.1-1.2 0.0 0.000 *** Mean number of adult female household members2,3,4 1.1 1.1-1.1 1.2 1.2-1.2 0.0 0.000 *** Mean number of children (<2 years)2 0.3 0.31-0.34 0.3 0.33-0.4 0.0 0.191 n/s Mean number of children (0-4 years)2 0.6 0.6-0.7 0.6 0.6-0.7 0.0 0.888 n/s Mean number of children (5-17 years)2 1.9 1.8-1.9 2.1 2.1-2.1 0.0 0.026 ** Mean percentage of adults who are male (%)2,3 44.3 43.5-45.1 44.5 43.6-45.1 0.2 0.622 n/s Mean percentage of adults who are female (%)2,3,4 55.7 54.9-56.4 55.5 54.6-56.1 -0.2 0.622 n/s Mean percentage of households with a male primary adult decision-maker (%)5 70.6 69.2-72.0 65.0 63.5-66.5 -5.6 0.000 *** Mean percentage of households with a female primary adult decision-maker (%)5 81.6 80.8-83.2 83.6 81.9-84.3 2.0 0.387 n/s Highest education level attained (%) No education 31.1 29.7-32.4 17.4 16.0-18.4 -14.0 0.000 *** Less than primary 52.3 50.8-53.7 56.0 53.9-57.1 4.0 0.000 *** Primary 16.2 15.1-17.2 26.0 25.2-27.9 10.0 0.000 *** Secondary or more 0.4 0.2-0.6 0.7 0.4-0.9 0.0 0.138 n/s n6 4,245 3,890 Sources: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 A t-test of statistical significance of differences between the baseline and end-line estimates of means for continuous variables, and a Pearson’s chi-squared test of statistical significance of differences between the baseline and end-line estimates of proportions for categorical variables differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. 2 The estimate is based on household members with known age. 3 Feed the Future defines adult as an individual age 18 or older. 4 Females age 15-17 are of reproductive age but are not considered adults by this definition. 5 Primary decision-maker is the adult in the household who makes the socioeconomic decisions in the household. There can be both a female and male primary decision-maker in the same household though there may only be one or the other – or neither if there are no adults in the household. 6 Sample n is the unweighted count of all households that responded to the survey. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 34 Overall, there is improvement in educational status in the end-line relative to the baseline. The proportion of households with all-illiterate members declined by 14 percentage points. Similarly, the proportion with a member that completed primary education increased by 10 percentage points. Tables 3.2a and 3.2b present characteristics of the female and male primary adult decision￾makers in the sampled households in the P1-ZOI and changes in their characteristics since the baseline survey. The female and male primary adult decision-makers are household members age 18 or older who self-identify as the primary adult male or primary adult female responsible for both social and economic decision making within the household. When both exist within a single household, female and male primary adult decision-makers are typically, but not necessarily, husband and wife. Table 3.2a and table 3.2b shows the age group, marital status, literacy status, educational attainment and participation in economic activity for these household members. These characteristics are shown by gender of primary adult decision-makers. Out of all primary decision-makers in the PI-ZOI end-line survey, about 56.3 percent are female and 43.7 percent male (see Table 2.2). Alternatively, 83.6 percent of sample households have a primary adult female decision-maker, while only 65 percent have a primary male adult decision￾maker (see Table 3.1b). The age distributions of female and male decision-makers are almost identical with 68 percent both being under 50 years of age. The majority of primary decision￾makers are married, though more female ones are either widowed or separated (26 percent). Literacy rates among male decision-makers (37.9 percent) is more than twice as high as that among female decision-makers (15.1 percent). Comparable fractions of female (93.8 percent) and male (97.5 percent) decision-makers participate in some form of economic activity. The proportion of female primary decision-makers that participated in nonfarm and wage labor activities (17.2 percent) is considerably lower than that of males (25.9 percent). The age profile of primary decision-makers has shifted up essentially because the same households are surveyed both in the baseline and end-line. The proportion of primary decision-makers with no formal education declined in the end-line relative to the baseline, although the decline was smaller among female primary decision-makers. The likely explanations for this decline include expanding adult literacy programs. Marital status of primary decision-makers has a similar pattern in the baseline and end-line, with little changes across the period. Compared to the baseline, the proportion of both female and male primary decision-makers participating in some form of economic activity increased in the end-line, with the rise more than twice as high for the former (10.1 percentage points) relative to the later (4.7 percentage points). Moreover, the participation rate of male primary decision-makers in nonfarm/wage activities grew faster than that experienced by their female counterparts, while the opposite is true for farm activities. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 35 Table 3.2a.: Comparison of characteristics of primary adult female decision-makers in the PI-ZOI, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Characteristic Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p￾valueb Sig.c % 95% CI na % 95% CI na Diff. Age 18-24 15.9 14.7-17.2 553 5.7 4.9-6.5 187 -10.2 0.000 *** 25-29 20.0 18.6-21.3 694 14.2 12.9-15.3 460 -5.9 0.000 *** 30-39 26.0 24.5-27.5 902 30.8 29.2-32.3 1,000 4.8 0.790 n/s 40-49 12.3 11.1-13.3 425 17.3 15.9-18.5 561 5.0 0.000 *** 50-59 15.3 14.1-16.5 530 17.9 16.6-19.2 584 2.6 0.016 * 60+ 10.4 9.4-11.4 362 14.2 12.9-15.3 460 3.8 0.000 *** Marital status Married 72.2 70.9-73.9 2,510 72.6 70.9-73.9 2,355 0.4 0.020 ** Living in a consensual union 0.7 0.5-1.0 28 0.2 0.03-0.3 6 -0.5 0.879 n/s Widowed 17.7 16.2-18.7 606 19.1 17.6-20.3 617 1.4 0.654 n/s Divorced or separated 8.3 7.2-9.1 283 6.9 6.1-7.8 226 -1.4 0.003 ** Never married or in a union 1.1 0.7-1.4 39 1.3 1.0-1.8 48 0.2 0.040 ** Education No education 86.4 84.7-87.1 2,967 83.9 81.9-84.5 2,701 -2.5 0.002 *** Less than primary 11.2 10.6-12.7 403 12.8 12.1-14.8 432 1.6 0.040 * Completed primary 2.3 1.8-2.8 80 3.2 2.7-4.0 110 0.9 0.008 ** Completed secondary ^ ^ 3 ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ ^ Economic activityd Participates in some form of economic activity 83.7 82.4-84.8 2,900 93.8 92.6-94.3 3,039 10.1 0.000 *** Participation in economic activity by typee Farm 82.2 80.9-83.5 2,851 92.1 91.1-92.9 2,993 9.9 0.000 *** Nonfarm 9.7 8.7-10.7 338 11.1 9.9-12.1 358 1.4 0.090 * Wage/salaried 4.6 3.9-5.3 160 6.1 5.2-6.8 197 1.5 0.000 *** Number of primary adult female decision-makers 3,466 3252 ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, the sum of disaggregate sample sizes may not equal the overall sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. d Both paid and unpaid types of economic activity are included. Domestic work, such as caring for children and the elderly or cooking and cleaning, is not included. e Farm work includes food crop farming, cash crop farming, livestock raising or fishing/fishpond culture; nonfarm work includes running small businesses or self-employment; and wage/salaried employment includes both agriculture and non-agriculture-based work that is salaried. Percentages do not add up to 100 percent because individuals can engage in more than one type of economic activity. Notes: Estimates are based on primary adult female decision-makers who are de jure household members. Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 36 Table 3.2b. Comparison of characteristics of primary adult male decision-makers in the PI-ZOI, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Characteristic Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p￾valueb Sig.c % 95% CI na % 95% CI na Diff. Age 18-24 7.1 6.1-7.9 211 4.0 3.2-4.7 102 -6.2 0.000 *** 25-29 15.7 14.4-16.9 470 6.7 5.7-7.6 169 -7.9 0.000 *** 30-39 35.8 34.0-37.5 1,073 34.9 33.1-36.7 881 3.2 0.016 * 40-49 16.8 15.4-18.1 503 23.2 21.5-24.8 586 5.5 0.000 *** 50-59 10.9 9.7-12.0 327 13.2 11.9-14.5 334 2.5 0.001 *** 60+ 13.8 12.6-15.0 414 18.0 16.5-19.5 455 3.1 0.000 *** Marital status Married 89.7 88.5-90.7 2,687 90.1 88.5-90 2,266 0.4 0.000 *** Living in a consensual union ^ ^ 28 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Widowed 1.9 1.4-2.3 57 1.8 1.4-2.4 49 -0.1 0.213 n/s Divorced or separated 2.7 2.1-3.2 80 2.7 2.1-3.4 71 0.0 0.543 n/s Never married or in a union 4.9 4.1-5.6 146 5.0 4.4-6.2 134 0.1 0.000 *** Education No education 61.9 57.6-61 2037 58.8 57.5-60.1 1,503 -3.1 0.000 *** Less than primary 32.8 32-33.9 1081 35.1 33.9-36.4 1,033 2.3 0.000 *** Completed primary 5.1 5.0-6.4 169 5.8 5.2-6.4 185 0.7 0.007 *** Completed secondary ^ ^ 3 ^ ^ 5 0.19 0.328 n/s Economic activityd Participates in some form of economic activity 92.8 91.4-93.3 2,769 97.5 96.6-97.9 2,460 4.7 0.000 *** Participation in economic activity by typee Farm 91.3 90.2-92.3 2,737 96.2 95.5-96.9 2,433 4.9 0.000 *** Nonfarm 11.2 10.0-12.3 335 13.9 12.5-15.3 352 2.7 0.022 ** Wage/salaried 9.7 8.6-10.7 290 12 10.7-13.3 305 2.3 0.004 *** Number of primary adult male decision-makers 2,998 2,527 ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, the sum of disaggregate sample sizes may not equal the overall sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. d Both paid and unpaid types of economic activity are included. Domestic work, such as caring for children and the elderly or cooking and cleaning, is not included. e Farm work includes food crop farming, cash crop farming, livestock raising or fishing/fishpond culture; nonfarm work includes running small businesses or self-employment; and wage/salaried employment includes both agriculture and non-agriculture-based work that is salaried. Percentages do not add up to 100 percent because individuals can engage in more than one type of economic activity. Notes: Estimates are based on primary adult male decision-makers who are de jure household members. Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 37 3.2 Living Conditions Table 3.3a shows dwelling characteristics of the households in the P1-ZOI for the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line surveys. Many of these measures align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) definitions (UNSTATS, n.d.). The table presents the percentage of households who have access to an improved water source, improved sanitation, electricity and solid cooking fuel. The percentages of households practicing a correct water treatment practice or technology and those practicing open defecation are also included. The average number of people per sleeping room, as well as roof, exterior wall and floor materials are also presented. Estimates are shown for all households. Because changes in these characteristics over time may also influence changes in the Feed the Future indicators, the results of the test of statistical differences between the baseline and end-line surveys are also provided. Table 3.3a reveals that 66 percent of the households have access to improved water sources in the end-line and this was nearly 10 percentage points higher than the proportion in the baseline. Only 10 percent of the households use a correct water treatment practice in the end-line; this is a small percentage point change, but it is a statistically significant increase from baseline. Similarly, the proportion with access to improved sanitation that isn’t shared with others declined slightly (62 percent), while the proportion practicing open defecation (37 percent) increased slightly in the end-line; both percentage point changes are small but statistically significant. Virtually all households used solid fuel for cooking both in the baseline and end-line. The proportion with access to electricity in the end-line (22 percent) was more than 3 folds of the proportion in the baseline. There was a 10 percent increase in the average number of people per sleeping room in the end-line relative to the baseline. Residences of about one-thirds of the households have natural (mostly straw) roofs and the proportion is lower in the end-line relative to the baseline. About two-thirds of the houses have finished roofs and this proportion increased during the period. Over 95 percent of the households live in houses with natural walls and floors, and these proportions did not change across the two rounds. 7 7 The proportion of houses with exterior walls made of the third category of materials (Rudimentary) could not be computed due to differences in coding of building materials in the baseline (2013) and end-line (2018) surveys. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 38 Table 3.3a Comparison of household dwelling characteristics between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Characteristic Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾value1 Sig.1 Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Percent with improved water source (%)2 57.1 55.4-58.4 66.2 65.2-68.2 9.1 0.000 *** Percent using a correct water treatment practice or technology (%)3 8.1 7.5-9.2 10.2 9.1-10.9 2.1 0.009 ** Percent with improved sanitation, not shared (%)4 63.1 61.3-64.2 61.5 59.5-62.5 -1.6 0.097 * Percent with improved sanitation, shared (%)4 0.1 0.1-0.1 0.1 0.1-0.1 0.0 0.871 n/s Percent with unimproved sanitation (%)5 1.0 0.5-1.1 0.9 0.5-1.1 -0.1 0.728 n/s Percent practicing open defecation (%)6 35.6 34.5-37.4 37.4 36.4-39.5 1.8 0.054 * Percent using solid fuel for cooking (%)7 98.8 98.5-99.1 98.9 98.5-99.2 0.1 0.926 n/s Percent with access to electricity (%) 6.3 5.9-7.4 21.8 20.0-22.6 15.5 0.000 *** Mean persons per sleeping room8 4.7 4.6- 4.9 5.1 5.1-5.2 0.4 0.000 *** Household roof materials (%)9 Natural 43.2 42.4-45.4 32.4 31.6-34.6 -10.8 0.000 *** Rudimentary 1.2 0.9-1.6 0.3 0.1-0.5 -0.9 0.005 *** Finished 55.6 53.3-56.3 67.2 64.9-67.9 11.6 0.000 *** Household exterior wall materials (%)10 Natural 96.2 93.8-95.2 96.7 94.8-96.1 0.5 0.501 n/s Finished 3.7 4.8-6.1 3.3 3.8-5.2 -0.4 0.502 n/s Household floor materials (%)11 Natural 95.7 94.7-95.9 95.3 94.6- 95.9 -0.4 0.765 n/s Rudimentary 2.8 2.6-3.7 1.1 0.8-1.4 -1.7 0.001 *** Finished 1.4 1.1- 1.7 3.6 3.1- 4.2 2.2 0.008 *** Sources: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia 2019 1 A t-test of statistical significance of differences between the baseline and end-line estimates of means for continuous variables, and a Pearson’s chi-squared test of statistical significance of differences between the baseline and end-line estimates of proportions for categorical variables. Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. 2 Improved water sources include piped water into the dwelling, piped water into the yard, public tap/standpipe, tube well/borehole, protected dug well, protected spring, and rainwater (WHO and UNICEF 2006). The proportion of the population with sustainable access to an improved water source is the SDG indicator 6.1.1 (UN ECOSOC 2016). The measure includes regularity in access to the water source – namely, that (a) water is available from this source all year round and (b) water from this source was available every day in the 2 weeks preceding the survey. 3 Correct water treatment practice or technology refers to methods that effectively kill or remove pathogens. This includes boiling the water, adding bleach or chlorine, using a water filter (ceramic, sand, composite) and solar disinfection (WHO and UNICEF 2006). Practices such as straining through a cloth and letting it stand and settle are not considered effective approaches of water treatment. 4 Improved sanitation facilities are those that separate human excreta from human contact and include the categories flush to piped sewer system, flush to septic tank, flush/pour flush to pit, composting toilet, ventilated improved pit latrine and pit latrine with a slab. Because shared and public facilities are often less hygienic than private facilities, shared or public sanitation facilities are not counted as improved (WHO and UNICEF 2006). The proportion of the population with access to improved sanitation is the SDG indicator 6.2.1 (UN ECOSOC 2016). 5 A sanitation facility is considered unimproved if human excreta is not adequately separated from human contact. This includes the following: flush/pour flush elsewhere; pit latrine without a slab/open pit; bucket; and hanging toilet. Households that report having no sanitation facility, or using the bush or field are considered as using an unimproved sanitation facility (WHO and UNICEF 2006). 6 Households that report having no sanitation facility, or using the bush or field are considered as practicing open defecation. 7 Solid fuel is defined as charcoal, wood, animal dung, straw/shrubs/grass and agriculture crop residue. The other and no food cooked in household categories are removed from percentages. SDG indicator 7.1.2 focuses on the proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology so the indicator is not directly comparable to the SDG indicator on type of fuel used by households (UN ECOSOC 2016). 8 The average number of persons per sleeping room is a common indicator of crowding (UNDP 2003). 9 Natural roof includes no roof, thatch (palm leaf, straw, reed), and sod or bamboo. Rudimentary roof includes wood planks and cardboard. Finished roofs include metal, wood, calamine/cement fiber, ceramic tiles, cement and roofing shingles. The other category is removed from percentages. 10 Natural wall includes no walls, cane/palm/tree trunks, dirt, bamboo with mud and stone with mud. Rudimentary walls include plywood, cardboard, reused wood and unbaked bricks. Finished walls include cement, stone with lime/cement, bricks, cement blocks, unbaked bricks covered with plaster and wood planks/shingles. The other category is removed from percentages. 11 Natural floors include earth/sand, dung and palm leaves. Rudimentary floors include wood planks and bamboo slats. Finished floors include parquet/polished wood, vinyl or asphalt strips, ceramic tiles, cement and wall-to-wall carpet. The other category is removed from percentages. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 39 Tables 3.3b compares the dwelling characteristics of households in the P1-ZOI by gendered household type between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys. The results of the test of statistical differences between the baseline and end-line surveys are also provided. Table 3.3b reveals that the proportion using an improved water source was about 10 percentage points higher in the end-line relative to the baseline in households with male and female adults as well as in households with only female adults. Similarly, access to electricity increased by over 12 percentage points in the latter households. The proportion of households with only male adults that use solid fuel was slightly higher in the end-line. Table 3.3b. Comparison of household dwelling characteristics, by gendered household type, between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Household characteristic Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p-value1 Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Sig. Households using an improved water source2 Male and female adult(s) 57.2 55.3-58.7 66.8 65.8-69.1 9.6 0.000 *** Female adult(s) only 55.4 51.2-58.2 63.6 60.1-67.4 8.2 0.010 ** Male adult(s) only 62.1 55.5-68.8 66.2 57.7-75.1 4.1 0.492 n/s Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Households using a correct water treatment practice or technology3 Male and female adult(s) 8.3 7.5-9.4 10.8 9.5-11.7 2.5 0.142 n/s Female adult(s) only 7.5 6.0-9.8 8 5.8-9.9 0.5 0.808 n/s Male adult(s) only 7.2 4.1-11.3 6.7 1.6-10.4 -0.5 0.888 n/s Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Households using an improved sanitation facility, non-shared4 Male and female adult(s) 65.6 63.4-66.7 64 61.6-65.1 -1.6 0.444 n/s Female adult(s) only 54.7 51.8-58.8 51.2 47.6-55.2 -3.5 0.211 n/s Male adult(s) only 54.9 47.7-61.3 52.6 42.5-60.9 -2.3 0.67 n/s Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Households using an improved sanitation facility, shared4 Male and female adult(s) 0.2 0.09-0.2 0.1 0.01-0.2 -0.1 0.301 n/s Female adult(s) only 0.0 - 0.3 0.1-0.7 0.3 0.159 n/s Male adult(s) only 0.8 0.3-2.2 1.2 0.6-4.1 0.4 0.713 n/s Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Households using an unimproved sanitation facility5 Male and female adult(s) 0.7 0.4-0.9 0.8 0.5-1.1 0.1 0.575 n/s Female adult(s) only 0.7 0.7-1.2 0.9 0.3-1.8 0.2 0.672 n/s Male adult(s) only 2.5 0.04-3.7 1.1 0.8-2.5 -1.4 0.395 n/s Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Households practicing open defecation6 Male and female adult(s) 33.2 32.1-35.3 35.1 34.1-37.5 1.9 0.361 n/s Female adult(s) only 44.2 40.1-47.1 47.5 43.4-51.1 3.3 0.218 n/s Male adult(s) only 41.4 35.3-48.8 45.1 36.5-54.9 3.7 0.502 n/s Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 40 Households using solid cooking fuels7 Male and female adult(s) 99.2 98.7-99.4 98.9 98.4-99.2 -0.3 0.519 n/s Female adult(s) only 98.7 97.9-99.5 99.1 98.1-99.7 0.4 0.493 n/s Male adult(s) only 94.7 92.3-98.1 98.6 95.9-100 3.9 0.04 ** Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Households with access to electricity Male and female adult(s) 6.1 5.6-7.3 22.7 20.7-23.6 16.6 0.000 *** Female adult(s) only 6.5 5.1-8.6 19.1 15.7-21.7 12.6 0.000 *** Male adult(s) only 8.8 4.7-12.4 13.3 6.7-19.1 4.5 0.308 n/s Child(ren) only ^ ^ ^ ^ - - - Sources: Feed the Future Baseline Survey, Ethiopia 2013; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 A Pearson’s chi-squared test of statistical significance of differences between the baseline and end-line estimates of proportions. Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. 2 Improved water sources include piped water into the dwelling, piped water into the yard, public tap/standpipe, tube well/borehole, protected dug well, protected spring and rainwater (WHO and UNICEF 2006). The proportion of the population with sustainable access to an improved water source is the SDG indicator 6.1.1 (UN ECOSOC 2016). The measure includes regularity in access to the water source – namely, that (a) water is available from this source all year round and (b) water from this source was available every day in the 2 weeks preceding the survey. 3 Correct water treatment practice or technology refers to methods that effectively kill or remove pathogens. This includes boiling the water, adding bleach or chlorine, using a water filter (ceramic, sand, composite) and solar disinfection (WHO and UNICEF 2006). Practices such as straining through a cloth and letting it stand and settle are not considered effective approaches of water treatment. 4 Improved sanitation facilities are those that separate human excreta from human contact and include the categories flush to piped sewer system, flush to septic tank, flush/pour flush to pit, composting toilet, ventilated improved pit latrine and pit latrine with a slab. Because shared and public facilities are often less hygienic than private facilities, shared or public sanitation facilities are not counted as improved (WHO and UNICEF 2006). The proportion of the population with access to improved sanitation is the SDG indicator 6.2.1 (UN ECOSOC 2016). 5 A sanitation facility is considered unimproved if human excreta is not adequately separated from human contact. This includes the following: flush/pour flush elsewhere; pit latrine without a slab/open pit; bucket; and hanging toilet. Households that report having no sanitation facility, or using the bush or field are considered as using an unimproved sanitation facility (WHO and UNICEF 2006). 6 Households that report having no sanitation facility, or using the bush or field are considered as practicing open defecation. 7 Solid fuel is defined as charcoal, wood, animal dung, straw/shrubs/grass and agriculture crop residue. The other and no food cooked in household categories are removed from percentages. SDG indicator 7.1.2 focuses on the proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology so the indicator is not directly comparable to the SDG indicator on type of fuel used by households (UN ECOSOC 2016). 3.3 Education Table 3.4a and Table 3.4b present school attendance, educational attainment and literacy in the P1-ZOI. Table 3.4a presents the percentage of all household members between ages 5 and 24 who currently attend school, the percentage of household members over age 9 who have completed primary school, and the percentage of household members over age 4 who are literate. Table 3.4b presents the same percentages separately for females and males. Table 3.4a also includes sex ratios for school attendance, attainment of primary education and literacy. In Ethiopia, primary education is defined as 8 years of education (in grades 1 through 8). Tables 3.4a and 3.4b reveal that the proportion of children aged 5-9 attending school is low at 30 percent. This may indicate that children start attending schools late, particularly when comparing this to 77 and 68 percent of children aged 10-14 and 15-19, respectively, that are attending schools. Thirty percent of children aged 15-19 completed primary school and 89 percent are literate while primary school completion was higher (47 percent) and literacy was slightly lower (78 percent) among 20–24-year-olds. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 41 The results also reveal that the proportion of females under 20 that are attending schools and are literate is about the same as the proportion of males while the proportion of females under 20 that completed primary schools is considerably higher. However, the proportion of females aged 20 and older that completed primary school and that are literate are lower than the proportion of males, which may indicate that households are now enrolling a higher proportion of girls into schools or that females stop schooling as they get older or both. Table 3.4a. School attendance, educational attainment and literacy in the P1-ZOI Age group (years) Percent Female to male ratio n Attending school1 Attained a primary level of education2 Literate3 Attendin g school1 Attained a primary level of education2 Literate3 5-9 29.7 n/a 31.5 1.0 0.0 1.0 3,282 10-14 77.3 1.8 83.8 1.0 2.4 1.0 3,502 15-19 68.2 30.0 88.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 2,229 20-24 33.6 47.0 78.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 1,168 25-29 0.0 36.9 53.1 0.0 0.7 0.5 1,083 30-34 0.0 24.5 33.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 1,194 35-54 0.0 14.4 30.4 0.0 0.7 0.3 3,251 55+ 0.0 6.7 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.1 1,644 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Estimates include only household members who are 5-24 years old. 2 Estimates include only household members who are 10 years old or older. 3 Estimates include only household members who are 5 years or older. Table 3.4b. School attendance, educational attainment and literacy in the P1-ZOI, by age and sex Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. n/a = not applicable 1 Estimates include only household members who are 5-24 years old. 2 Estimates include only household members who are 10 years or older. 3 Estimates include only household members who are 5 years or older. Age group (years) Female Male Attending school1 Attained a primary level of education2 Literate3 n Attending school1 Attained a primary level of education2 Literate3 n (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 5-9 30.4 n/a 32.1 1673 29.6 n/a 31.7 1609 10-14 77.3 2.7 83.6 1768 75.7 1.1 83 1734 15-19 67.7 34.6 89.1 944 67.9 27.6 88.9 1285 20-24 24.4 45.5 71.1 454 38.2 48.8 84.2 714 25-29 0.0 30.3 41 669 0.0 42.9 74.9 414 30-34 0.0 15.8 20.7 706 0.0 28.7 54.9 488 35-54 0.0 11.6 14.1 1640 0.0 16.6 48.3 1611 55+ 0.0 3.2 3.5 885 0.0 7.5 26.4 759 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 42 Table 3.5 provides a comparison of a household member’s highest educational attainment between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys for all individuals and by sex of individuals. Generally, the highest education achieved by any member of the household improved over the period, and the change is statistically significant. The percentage of household members with no education was 45 percent lower in the end-line relative to the baseline. Looking at the educational status by sex of the household members, relative to males a higher percentage of female members were illiterate during both baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys. Moreover, the decline in the proportion of illiterate household members was relatively higher among males than females. However, level of education has improved over the two period for both male and female members. Table 3.5. Comparison of household member educational attainment in the PI-ZOI, in total and by sex, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Sex and highest educational attainmenta Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾valueb Sig.c % 95% CI n % 95% CI n Total No education 31.1 29.7-32.4 1440 17 16.0-18.4 670 -13.9 0.000 *** Less than primary 52.3 50.8-53.7 2420 56 53.9-57.1 2159 3.7 0.003 *** Completed primary 16.2 15.1-17.2 748 26 25.2-27.9 1034 9.8 0.000 *** Completed secondary ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ 26 - - - Female No education 54 52.5-55.5 2438 39 37.1- 40.1 1469 -15.4 0.000 *** Less than primary 38.7 37.3-40.1 1747 48 46.5-49.6 1830 9.4 0.000 *** Completed primary 7.1 6.3- 7.8 320 13 12.1-14.2 501 6.1 0.000 *** Completed secondary ^ ^ 8 ^ ^ 5 - - - Male No education 37.7 36.3-39.2 1601 23 21.1- 23.8 797 -15.2 0.000 *** Less than primary 49.4 47.9-50.9 2093 57 55.1-58.3 2009 7.3 0.000 *** Completed primary 12.4 11.4-13.4 529 20 18.8 -21.5 715 7.8 0.000 *** Completed secondary ^ ^ 13 ^ ^ 21 - - - ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 Sources: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. a Estimates include only de facto household members who are 5 years of age or older. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Note: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 43 4. Household Economic Status This chapter includes a background discussion of monetary poverty in Ethiopia, including the logic of the Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS)8 and consumption expenditures methodology. Appendix A2.2 provides an overview of the methodology for calculating the Feed the Future PI￾ZOI poverty indicators. Additional details are provided in the Feed the Future Guide to Statistics. The Household Roster and Household Consumption Expenditure survey modules are used to calculate the per capita expenditures and prevalence of poverty indicators. The household consumption expenditure module is similar to the LSMS, in which households’ consumption of various food and non-food items is measured to infer household income and well-being. Individuals’ per capita expenditures are then derived by dividing total household expenditures by the number of household members. From these data, household expenditure totals are calculated and used as a proxy for household incomes, based on the assumption that a household’s consumption is closely related to its income. Household consumption and expenditures are often preferred to income when measuring poverty due to the difficulty in accurately measuring income. According to Deaton, expenditure data are less prone to error, easier to recall and more stable over time than income data.9 Ethiopia recorded a rapid economic growth over the last 15 years since 2004/05. The continued growth has contributed to the decline in poverty. Official statistics indicate that poverty declined nationwide from about 44 percent in 1996 to 23 percent in 2015. Consistent with these figures, we see an increase in per capita expenditure and a decline in poverty among households in the Feed the Future ZOI. 4.1 Daily Per Capita Consumption Expenditures Table 4.1a presents the Feed the Future ZOI indicator daily per capita consumption expenditures in constant 2010 USD. Daily per capita consumption expenditures serve as a proxy for income. Table 4.1a includes the overall mean daily per capita consumption expenditures and the mean daily per capita consumption expenditure for selected percentiles of households. The percentiles provide information on the distribution of consumption expenditures. As is typical of consumption expenditure and income data, these estimates are positively skewed, with the majority of the population consuming or spending very little, and a small portion of the population consuming much more (see Figure 4.1 also). The mean, therefore, is affected by these outliers who consume much more. A summary statistic more robust to outliers is the median (or the 8 Grosh, Margaret and Paul Glewwe. 1995. “A Guide to Living Standards Measurement Study Surveys and Their Data Sets.” Living Standards Measurement Study Group. Working paper No. 120. The World Bank, Washington, DC. 9 Deaton, A. 2008. The Analysis of Household Surveys: A microeconomic approach to development policy. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 44 50th percentile). Estimates in Table 4.1a are shown for all households as well as disaggregated by household characteristics, including gendered household type, household size, and household educational attainment. Average daily per capita consumption expenditure was $2.19 in constant 2010 USD in the P1- ZOI at the time of the 2018 Ethiopia ZOI Survey. Median (50th percentile) daily per capita consumption expenditure was equivalent to $1.60, indicating that 50 percent of all individuals in the P1-ZOI had daily per capita consumption expenditures less than $1.60 in 2005 PPP. Table 4.1a Daily per capita consumption expenditures by household characteristic (in constant 2010 USD1 ) in the P1-ZOI Estimate (weighted) (constant 2005 PPP) Characteristic Mean Percentile n2 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th All households 2.19 0.57 0.95 1.60 2.72 4.34 3,876 Gendered household type Male and female adults 2.22 0.58 0.97 1.64 2.76 4.40 3,089 Female adult(s) only 1.95 0.47 0.79 1.31 2.35 4.05 665 Male adult(s) only 2.05 0.59 0.87 1.60 2.50 3.71 115 Children only ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 7 Household size Small (1-5 members) 2.37 0.61 1.01 1.68 2.93 4.66 2,257 Medium (6-10 members) 2.08 0.58 0.91 1.55 2.57 4.18 1,574 Large (11+ members) 1.51 0.14 0.24 1.07 2.46 3.00 45 Household educational attainment No education 1.97 0.43 0.80 1.49 2.50 3.74 664 Less than primary 2.13 0.57 0.90 1.54 2.62 4.26 2,153 Primary 2.36 0.61 1.05 1.78 2.92 4.72 1,032 Secondary or more ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 26 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Daily per capita consumption expenditures measured in Birr were converted to constant 2010 USD using the 2005 and 2010 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Index estimated by the World Bank. We used the formula: (Per capita expenditures LCU)/ (2005 PPP LCU* (2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU) * (2010 CPI USD/2005 CPI USD)). The 2005 PPP LCU for Ethiopia is 2.75, 2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU=5.68. The conversion factor is 17.4. 2 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsample sizes may not add-up to the total sample size. Estimates in Table 4.1a also indicate that the median (50th percentile) per capita consumption expenditure for households was 2.8 times higher than the average of that of households in the bottom 10 percentile by consumption expenditures. Similarly, mean per capita consumption expenditure of households in the top 90 percentile is 7.6 times higher relative to those in the lowest 10 percentile. Mean consumption expenditure of households with male and female adults was the highest and that of those with female adults only the lowest. Moreover, this expenditure Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 45 level appears to decline with increase in household size and increase with educational attainment of households. Table 4.1b compares average daily per capita expenditures between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI surveys. The average daily per capita consumption expenditure has increased by 23.7 percent from $1.77 in the baseline to $2.19 in the end-line and this difference is highly statistically significant. The increment is in real terms, meaning the impact of inflation has been accounted for. Table 4.1b Comparison of daily per capita consumption expenditures in constant 2010 USD at 2005 PPP between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end￾line ZOI Surveys1 Indicator Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p-value2 (sig) Daily per capita consumption expenditures 1.77 2.19 0.0000 (***) Source: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Daily per capita consumption expenditures measured in Birr were converted to constant 2010 USD using the 2005 and 2010 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Index estimated by the World Bank. We used the formula: (Per capita expenditures LCU)/ (2005 PPP LCU* (2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU) * (2010 CPI USD/2005 CPI USD)). The 2005 PPP LCU for Ethiopia is 2.75, 2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU=5.68. The conversion factor is 17.4 for the end-line survey. The 2013 level, computed similarly using corresponding parameters, is found to be 12.17. 2 A t-test of statistical significance of differences between the baseline and end-line estimates of mean expenditure. Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Figure 4.1 shows the share of total consumption per quintile in the ZOI. Inequality is high in the ZOI. The richest 20 percent of the population consume nearly half of total consumption in the ZOI. In contrast, the poorest 20 percent consume only about 5 percent of the total consumption. Figure 4.1. Share of consumption per quintile: Feed the Future P1-ZOI 1 The poorest quintile is determined as the bottom fifth of the population by consumption expenditure. The poorest quintile’s share of total consumption is calculated by dividing the consumption of the poorest quintile by total consumption within the P1-ZOI. 4.8 9.6 14.5 22.1 49.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1st (Poorest) 2nd 3rd 4th 5th (Richest) Share of consumption within the PI￾ZOI (percentage) Quintile Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 46 Table 4.1c compares average daily per capita consumption expenditures in constant 2010 USD between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI surveys for all households in the P1-ZOI, as well as disaggregated by gendered household type, household educational attainment, and household hunger scale. The table shows that average daily per capita consumption expenditure in 2010 USD has statistically significantly increased for “Male and female adults” households, households with some education, and households which experienced “little to no hunger.” Table 4.1c Comparison of mean daily per capita consumption expenditures in Constant 2010 USD at 2005 PPP in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p-valuea Sig. Characteristic Mean b 95% CI N Mean 95% CI n All households 1.77 1.70-1.84 4,618 2.19 2.10-2.27 3,876 0.42 0.000 *** Gendered household type Male and female adults 1.73 1.65-1.81 3,534 2.21 2.12-2.31 3,089 0.48 0.000 *** Female adults only 1.87 1.74-1.99 855 1.95 1.79-2.11 665 0.08 0.383 n/s Male adults only 2.35 2.06-2.63 224 2.05 1.53-2.56 115 -0.35 0.250 n/s Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Household education No education 1.82 1.73-1.92 1,434 2.96 1.81-2.12 664 0.14 0.171 n/s Less than primary 1.74 1.63-1.85 2,412 2.13 2.01-2.26 2,153 0.39 0.000 *** Completed primary 1.79 1.66-1.92 746 2.36 2.22-2.49 1,032 0.57 0.000 *** Secondary or more ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ 26 ^ ^ ^ Household hunger Little to no hunger 1.78 1.71-1.86 4,378 2.21 2.12-2.29 3,747 0.43 0.000 *** Moderate hunger 1.47 1.29-1.65 198 1.54 1.21-1.88 105 0.07 0.698 n/s Severe hunger 1.16 0.77-1.55 34 ^ ^ 23 ^ ^ ^ ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. b Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on de jure household members. Daily per capita consumption expenditures measured in Birr were converted to constant 2010 USD using the 2005 and 2010 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Index estimated by the World Bank. We used the formula: (Per capita expenditures LCU)/ (2005 PPP LCU* (2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU) * (2010 CPI USD/2005 CPI USD)). The 2005 PPP LCU for Ethiopia is 2.75, 2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU=5.68. The conversion factor is 17.4 for the end-line survey. The 2013 level, computed similarly using corresponding parameters, is found to be 12.17. Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018. 4.2 Prevalence and Depth of Poverty in the P1-ZOI The prevalence of poverty, sometimes called the poverty headcount ratio, is measured by the percentage of individuals living below a poverty threshold.10 Estimates of poverty prevalence are 10 Note that consumption expenditure data are not collected at the individual level but rather at the level of the household; daily per capita consumption expenditures are then derived by dividing total household expenditures by the number of household members. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 47 sensitive to the poverty thresholds used to identify the poor. A standardized poverty threshold of $1.25 per person per day in adjusted11 2005 PPP USD is used to track global changes in poverty across countries. The $1.25 threshold is in effect the extreme poverty threshold and represents the poverty line typical of the world’s poorest countries. 12 Poverty estimates may also be presented for an individual country’s own poverty and extreme poverty thresholds. Although poverty prevalence indicates how many individuals are impacted by poverty, it does not speak to how much people are impacted by poverty. In other words, it implicitly assumes that all those below the poverty line are equally poor. The depth of poverty, often called the poverty gap, is a useful poverty estimate because it captures the intensity of poverty. This measure indicates the average gap between consumption expenditure levels of the poor and the poverty line, with the non-poor counted as having a gap of zero. The measure is expressed as a proportion of the poverty line. The depth of poverty or poverty gap represents the entire ZOI population. The average consumption expenditure shortfall of the poor, in contrast, is estimated for only those individuals living below the poverty line. 4.2.1 The $1.25 Poverty Threshold Table 4.2a presents poverty estimates at the $1.25 per person per day (2005 PPP) threshold. The prevalence of poverty and depth of poverty at the $1.25 per person per day poverty line are Feed the Future PI-ZOI indicators. Similar to the daily per capita consumption expenditures table, this table presents poverty estimates for all households in the P1-ZOI, as well as disaggregated by gendered household type, household size and household educational attainment. Poverty Prevalence According to the estimates in Table 4.2, prevalence of poverty, which is measured by percent of people living below $1.25 per person per day in 2005 PPP, is 32.3 percent. The prevalence of poverty is lowest for male and female adult households and highest for female adult only households; it increases with household size and declines with educational attainment. Using this measure, poverty declined by over 7 percentage points from the baseline estimate of about 39.9 percent (Table 4.3a). This difference is statistically significant. When disaggregated by household characteristics, the prevalence of poverty has considerably and statistically significantly 11 Per capita expenditure measured in Birr (the local currency unit (LCU)) were converted to 2005 USD PPP using the PPP conversion factor estimated (and annually updated until 2011) by the World Bank and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) computed by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA). We used the formula (Per capita expenditures in 2018 LCU)/ (2005 USD PPP* (2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU)). The 2005 USD PPP (in 2005 prices) for Ethiopia is 2.75, (2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU)=5.68 and the product of the two gives us the adjusted conversion factor as 15.62. The 2013 levels were computed similarly using corresponding parameters including the (2013 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU)=3.96. The 2005 international poverty line is $1.25 USD PPP, while that of 2011 is 1.9 USD PPP. 12 United Nations Statistics Division. nd. Millennium Development Goals Indicators. https://millenniumindicators.un.org/unsd/mdg/Metadata.aspx?IndicatorId=0&SeriesId=580 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 48 declined for male and female adult households while there was a slight but statistically insignificant increase in the prevalence of poverty for female adult only and male adult only households. Table 4.2. Poverty in the ZOI at the international poverty line of $1.25 (2005 PPP) - 2018 Prevalence of Poverty2,5 Depth of Poverty3,5 Average consumption shortfall of the poor4,5 Characteristic Percent n5 Percent of poverty lineb n5 In USD 2005 PPP n5 population Total (All households) 32.3 3876 12.2 3876 0.5 1,230 Gendered household type Male and female adults 31.3 3,089 11.8 3,089 0.5 920 Female adult(s) only 40.9 665 15.8 665 0.5 265 Male adult(s) only 36.3 115 12.5 115 0.4 42 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ 7 ^ 7 ^ 3 Household size Small (1-5 members) 29.3 2,267 10.4 2,267 0.4 685 Medium (6-10 members) 33.6 1,578 12.5 1,578 0.5 525 Large (11+ members) 51.5 45 32 45 ^ 20 Household education No education 37.3 670 15.6 670 0.5 247 Less than primary 33.7 2,159 12.4 2,159 0.5 704 Primary 30.7 1,034 10.7 1,034 0.5 270 Secondary or more 27.2 26 10.5 26 ^ 9 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 The poverty headcount ratio is computed as the percentage of the ZOI population living on less than $1.25 a day at 2005 PPP prices. 2 The prevalence of poverty is the percentage of individuals living below the national poverty line. Poverty prevalence is sometimes referred to as the poverty incidence or poverty headcount ratio. 3 The depth of poverty, or poverty gap, is the average consumption shortfall as a percentage of the poverty line. 4 The average consumption shortfall of the poor is the average amount below the poverty threshold of a person in poverty. This value is estimated only among individuals living in households that fall below the poverty threshold. 5 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 49 Table 4.3a: Comparison of prevalence of poverty at the $1.25 (2005 PPP) per person per day threshold in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾valueb Sig.c Characteristic % 95% CI na % 95% CI na All households 39.9 38.5-41.4 4,618 32.3 30.8-33.8 3,876 -7.6 0.000 *** Gendered household type Male and female adults 40.4 38.8-42.0 3,534 31.3 29.6-32.9 3,089 -9.1 0.000 *** Female adults only 38.9 35.6-42.2 855 40.8 37.1-44.6 665 1.9 0.504 n/s Male adults only 31.0 24.9-37.1 224 36.3 27.3-45.1 115 5.3 0.445 n/s Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Household education No education 43.5 41.0-46.1 1,434 37.7 34.0-41.3 664 -5.8 0.026 * Less than primary 39.4 37.4-41.3 2,412 33.7 31.7-35.7 2,153 -5.7 0.000 *** Completed primary 36.8 33.3-40.2 746 27.5 24.8-30.2 1,032 -9.3 0.000 *** Secondary or more ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ 26 ^ ^ ^ Household hunger Little to no hunger 39.2 37.7-40.6 4,378 31.3 29.8-32.8 3,747 -7.9 0.000 *** Moderate hunger 55.4 48.4-62.4 198 59.5 50.0-69.1 105 4.1 0.550 n/s Severe hunger 58.9 41.5-76.3 34 ^ ^ 23 ^ ^ ^ ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a The “n” reflects the unweighted number of households—not the number of household members—even though the prevalence of poverty measures the percentage of individuals living below a poverty threshold. Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on de jure household members. The prevalence of poverty, sometimes referred to as the poverty incidence or poverty headcount ratio, is the percentage of individuals living below the $1.25 (2005 PPP) per person per day threshold. Depth of Poverty Depth of poverty for the Feed the Future ZOI in the end-line data using $1.25 and 2005 PPP is 12.2 percent (Table 4.3b). The decline is only a percentage point when compared with the baseline estimate. The depth of poverty provides an indication of the amount of resource transfers that, if perfectly targeted to poor households, would be needed to bring everyone in the ZOI up to the poverty line. With a P1-ZOI population of 13.8 million (in adult equivalent units), a poverty threshold of $1.25 per person per day (2005 PPP), poverty head count of 32.3 and a poverty gap of 12.2 percent, $2,113,207 (2005 PPP) per day would need to be transferred to the poor to bring their income or expenditures up to the poverty threshold13. 13 Since the mean depth of poverty in the ZOI is 12.2 percent, the poverty threshold is $1.25/day, and the population is 13.8 million; the average daily cost of raising the income or consumption expenditures of the poor up to the poverty line is calculated as: [(12.2 ÷ 100) * $1.25/day] *13857097 = $2,113,207/day. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 50 Table 4.3b: Comparison of depth of poverty at the $1.25 (2005 PPP) per person per day threshold in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾valueb Sig.c Characteristic % of poverty line 95% CI na % of poverty line 95% CI na All households 13.2 12.6-13.8 4,618 12.2 11.4-12.8 3,876 -1.0 0.054 n/s Gendered household type Male and female adults 13.3 12.6-14.0 3,534 11.7 10.9-12.5 3,089 -1.6 0.010 * Female adults only 13.2 11.7-14.6 855 15.8 13.9-17.6 665 2.6 0.058 n/s Male adults only 9.7 7.3-12.1 224 12.5 8.5-16.4 115 2.8 0.279 n/s Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Household education No education 14.6 13.4-15.7 1,434 15.7 13.8-17.7 664 1.1 0.381 n/s Less than primary 13.2 12.4-14.1 2,412 12.5 11.5-13.4 2,153 -0.7 0.327 n/s Completed primary 11.4 9.9-12.8 746 10.0 8.7-11.2 1,032 -1.4 0.212 n/s Secondary or more ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ 26 ^ ^ ^ Household hunger Little to no hunger 12.8 12.2-13.4 4,378 11.6 10.9-12.3 3,747 -1.2 0.039 * Moderate hunger 20.3 16.7-24.0 198 27.7 21.8-33.6 105 7.4 0.073 n/s Severe hunger 31.7 21.0-42.4 34 ^ ^ 23 ^ ^ ^ ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a The “n” reflects the unweighted number of households—not the number of household members—even though the depth of poverty measures the average gap between the consumption level of individuals and the poverty line. Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on de jure household members. The depth of poverty, or poverty gap, is the average consumption shortfall multiplied by the prevalence of poverty. The depth of poverty was calculated by first subtracting the per capita daily consumption expenditure in local currency units (LCU) for the year and month of the ZOI Survey of each household in the sample from the USD $1.25 per day poverty line in LCU for the year and month of the ZOI Survey, with the resulting difference set to zero for all non-poor households. The figure was then divided by the USD $1.25 per day poverty line in LCU for the year and month of the ZOI Survey. Finally, after applying the household member sampling weight, the value for each household was summed across all households and then divided by the sum of the number of all sampled households with consumption data. Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 The decline in the incidence of poverty was not replicated in the depth of poverty. The fall recorded in the latter is not statistically significant. Consumption expenditure rose significantly for households with male and female adults, with some formal education, and with little to no hunger experience. It did not for other household types. Correspondingly, these are also the household types which experienced reduction in poverty. In fact, depth of poverty also fell marginally for households with male and female adults and for those with little to no hunger experience. Thus, the pattern of poverty reduction largely left the depth of poverty unchanged. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 51 4.2.3 The National Poverty Threshold Table 4.4 presents poverty estimates at the national poverty threshold for Ethiopia. Similar to prior poverty tables, this table presents poverty estimates for all households in the P1-ZOI (excluding as before the Somali sub-sample), as well as disaggregated by characteristics, including gendered household type, household size and household educational attainment. The source of the national poverty line is the 2016 national poverty interim report (NPC (September 2017)). The 2011 poverty line is 3781 Birr per adult equivalent per year 2011 prices. If we divide it by 365, we will get the daily national poverty line in 2011 prices to be 10.36 Birr. Then, the only adjustment that is needed to arrive at the 2013 and 2018 poverty lines is to allow for annual inflation. Using the November 2018 retail price report, the cumulative inflation from 2011 to 2013 is 125.68 and from 2011 to 2018 is 180.1. With this adjustment we get the poverty line to be Birr13.02 and Birr18.66 per adult equivalent per day for 2013 and 2018, respectively. Table 4.4 Total (absolute) poverty line in Birr (average price) Year 1995/96 2010/11 2015/16 Absolute poverty line (Birr) 1075 3781 7184 Source: Computed using HICE survey 1995/96, 2010/11 and 2015/16 and MoFEC (2015). Note: The absolute poverty lines for 2010/11 and 2015/16 are respectively in December 2005 and December 2011 prices (NPC (September 2017). Poverty Prevalence Based on the national poverty line of 18.66 Birr per adult equivalent per day, the prevalence of poverty is 30.0 percent at the end-line. The rate is less than that under the international poverty line because the national poverty line is slightly lower when converted into 2005 PPP prices. The conversion involves dividing the national poverty line in Birr by the product of the 2005 USD PPP for Ethiopia (= 2.75) and the CPI ratio 2018 CPI LCU/2005 CPI LCU (=5.68) – or the adjusted conversion factor of 15.62. The result is $1.19. Second, this poverty line implies that poverty in the ZOI declined by 6.4 percentage points during Feed the Future phase one – a change very close to that recorded using the international poverty line. Table 4.5 compares the prevalence of poverty at the national threshold between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI surveys. The table shows that poverty at the national threshold declined by over 6 percentage points, from the baseline estimate of 36.4 percent. This difference is statistically significant. Households with male and female adults experienced a statistically significant decline in the prevalence of poverty during the period. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 52 Depth of Poverty The overall depth of poverty is 11.3 percent (Table 4.5). The depth of poverty provides an indication of the amount of resource transfers that, if perfectly targeted to poor households, would be needed to bring everyone in the ZOI up to the poverty line. With a P1-ZOI population of 13.8 million (in adult equivalent units), a poverty threshold of Birr18.66 per adult equivalent per day, and a poverty gap of 11.3 percent, Birr 29,218,798 per day would need to be transferred to the poor to bring their income or expenditures up to the poverty threshold14. Given the 2005 PPP conversion factor for 2005 (2.75) and the inflation factor of 5.68, this amounts to $1,870,602 per day in 2005 PPP. The difference with the figure obtained above using the international poverty line of $1.25 is accounted for by the lower national poverty line and poverty gap, which led to the smaller average daily consumption shortfall of the poor which amount to $0.16 and $0.13 using the international and national poverty lines, respectively. Table 4.5: Comparison of prevalence of poverty at the national threshold of 13.02 Birr (baseline) 18.66 Birr (end-line) in the PI-ZOI, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾valueb Sig.c Characteristic % 95% CI na % 95% CI na All households 36.4 35.0-37.8 4,618 30.0 28.5 -31.4 3,876 -6.4 0.00 *** Gendered household type Male and female adults 36.8 35.2-38.4 3,534 29.0 27.4-30.6 3,089 -7.8 0.000 *** Female adults only 35.6 32.4-38.9 855 38.7 35.0-42.5 665 3.1 0.261 n/s Male adults only 27.2 21.3-33.1 224 32.2 23.6-40.9 115 5.0 0.432 n/s Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ ^ Household education No education 39.9 37.4-42.4 1,434 35.6 31.9-39.2 664 -4.3 0.098 n/s Less than primary 36.3 34.4-38.2 2,412 31.3 29.3-33.2 2,153 -5.0 0.000 *** Completed primary 32.1 28.7-35.4 746 25.4 22.7-28.1 1,032 -6.7 0.006 ** Secondary or more ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ 26 ^ ^ ^ Household hunger Little to no hunger 35.6 34.2-37.0 4,378 29.1 27.6-30.5 3,747 -6.5 0.000 *** Moderate hunger 50.9 43.8-57.9 198 56.7 47.1-66.4 105 5.8 0.394 n/s Severe hunger 58.9 41.5-76.3 34 ^ ^ 23 ^ ^ ^ Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018; National Planning commission ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a The “n” reflects the unweighted number of households—not the number of household members—even though the prevalence of poverty measures the percentage of individuals living below a poverty threshold. Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on de jure household members. 14 Since the mean depth of poverty in the ZOI is 11.3 percent, the poverty threshold is Birr18.66 per adult equivalent per day, and the population is 13.8 million in adult equivalent units; the average daily cost of raising the consumption expenditures of the poor up to the poverty line is calculated as: [(11.3 ÷ 100) * Birr18.66/day] *13857097 = Birr29,218,798 /day. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 53 5. Hunger and Dietary Intake This chapter presents findings related to hunger and the dietary intake of women and young children in the P1-ZOI. 5.1 Household Hunger The household hunger scale (HHS) is used to calculate the prevalence of households in the Ethiopia P1-ZOI experiencing moderate or severe hunger. The HHS was developed by the USAID-funded Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance II Project (FANTA-2/FHI 360) in collaboration with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. It has been cross￾culturally validated to allow comparison across different food-insecure contexts. The HHS is used to assess, geographically target, monitor and evaluate settings affected by substantial food insecurity. The HHS is used to estimate the percentage of households affected by severity: little to no household hunger (HHS score 0-1); moderate household hunger (HHS score 2-3); and severe household hunger (HHS score 4-6). The HHS should be measured at the same time each year, and ideally at the most vulnerable time of year (i.e., right before the harvest, during the dry season, etc.).15,16 The hungry season in Ethiopia varies across the regions but generally occurs between May and September. The end-line data for the HHS were collected in September and early October. Tables 5.1a and 5.1b present estimates of household hunger for all households in the P1-ZOI, as well as by gendered household type and household educational attainment. The hunger scale suggests low prevalence of hunger in Ethiopia. Only 3.3 percent of the households reported moderate or severe hunger. The prevalence of moderate and severe hunger is the highest for female only households and lowest for male and female adults households while it is observed to decline with educational attainment of households whereby the proportion of households with primary education that reported moderate or severe hunger is about one￾quarter of the proportion of households with no education. The table also indicates that the prevalence of households that reported moderate or severe hunger declined by 1.6 percentage points in the end-line compared to the baseline estimate of about 5 percent or the prevalence of households that experienced moderate or severe hunger declined by 33 percent during the period. The proportion of male and female adults households that reported moderate or severe hunger declined relatively faster between the baseline and end-line. Furthermore, the decline in the prevalence of moderate or severe hunger between the baseline and end-line periods increases with educational attainment of households. The proportion that reported moderate or severe 15 Deitschler, Ballard, Swindale & Coates (2011). 16 For further description of the household hunger indicator and its calculation, please refer to the 2016 edition of the Feed the Future Indicator Handbook, available at https://www.agrilinks.org/post/feed-future-indicator￾handbook. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 54 hunger in the end-line was less than half the proportion in the baseline for households with primary education, it declined by about one-quarter for households with some primary education, while it changed little for households with no education. It is clear that the extent of hunger implied by the HHS scores are rather low for rural Ethiopia. However, it is worth noting that the household hunger scale may not be an appropriate measure of food security in the Ethiopian context (see Maxwell, Coates and Vaitla 2013). Table 5.1a. Comparison of household hunger in the PI-ZOI, by severity, in total and by selected household characteristics, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Characteristic Little to none (%) Moderate (%) Severe (%) na Little to none (%) Moderate (%) Severe (%) na All households 95.1 4.1 0.8 4,224 96.7 2.7 0.6 3,882 Gendered household type Male and female adults 96.3 3.2 0.6 3,235 97.5 2.2 0.3 3,105 Female adults only 90.8 7.7 1.5 776 93.2 5.3 1.5 661 Male adults only 93.0 6.0 1.0 209 93.4 3.8 2.8 116 Children only ^ ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ ^ 7 Household education No education 93.5 5.4 1.1 1,217 93.8 4.9 1.3 670 Less than primary 95.5 3.8 0.7 2,251 96.8 2.7 0.6 2,158 Primary 96.5 3.0 0.6 731 98.4 1.4 0.2 1,034 Secondary or more ^ ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ ^ 26 ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on primary adult decision-makers who are de jure household members. Sources: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013; Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2018 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 55 Table 5.1b. Comparison of household hunger between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. P￾valueb Sig.c Characteristic Moderate or severe (%) 95% CI na Moderate or severe (%) 95% CI na All households 4.9 3.8-6.2 4,224 3.3 2.6-4.2 3,882 -1.6 0.019 ** Gendered household type Male and female adults 3.8 2.8-5.0 3,235 2.5 1.9-3.3 3,105 -1.3 Female adults only 7.9 7.0-12.1 776 6.8 5.0-9.3 661 -1.1 Male adults only 7.0 4.0-11.8 209 6.6 3.1-13.4 116 -0.4 Children only ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ 7 - Household education No education 6.5 4.5-9.3 1,217 5.2 4.2-9.1 670 -1.3 Less than primary 4.5 3.4-5.8 2,251 3.3 2.4-4.3 2,158 -1.2 Primary 3.6 2.3-5.4 731 1.6 1.0-2.6 1,034 -2.0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ 26 - ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30 a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on primary adult decision-makers who are de jure household members. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. 5.2 Dietary Intake This section presents information on the dietary diversity of women of reproductive age and on infant and young child feeding in the P1-ZOI. 5.2.1 Dietary Diversity among Women Age 15-49 Years Women of reproductive age (15-49 years) are at risk of multiple micronutrient deficiencies, which can jeopardize their health and their ability to care for their children and participate in income￾generating activities (c.f. Darnton-Hill et al. 2005). The Feed the Future women’s dietary diversity indicator is a proxy for the micronutrient adequacy of women’s diets. The dietary diversity indicator reports the mean number of food groups consumed in the day preceding the survey by non-pregnant women of reproductive age. For the Feed the Future phase one end-line/baseline ZOI Survey analysis, two dietary diversity indicators for women are calculated: the Mean Women’s Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS) and Women’s Minimum Dietary Diversity (MDD-W).17 17 The Feed the Future indicators list does not include MDD-W. It is added here to exploit the potential benefit due to its greater disaggregation. See next footnote. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 56 Mean Women’s Dietary Diversity Score The Feed the Future mean WDDS indicator, presented in Table 5.2, is based on nine food groups: (1) grains, roots and tubers; (2) legumes and nuts; (3) dairy products; (4) organ meat; (5) eggs; (6) flesh food and small animal protein; (7) vitamin A-rich dark green leafy vegetables; (8) other vitamin A-rich vegetables and fruits; and (9) other fruits and vegetables. The number of food groups that each woman consumed the day preceding the survey is averaged across all women of reproductive age in the sample for whom dietary diversity data were collected to produce the mean WDDS. Table 5.2 shows the mean and median WDDS for all women of reproductive age in the P1-ZOI, and by individual- and household-level characteristics. Individual-level characteristics include women’s age groups and educational attainment. Household-level characteristics include gendered household type, household size and household hunger. Dietary diversity is extremely low in ZOI. An average woman of reproductive age consumed from 2.33 food groups in the previous day. Dietary diversity increases with education but only marginally. We see little difference in WDDS between different generations of women. The dietary diversity is slightly higher for medium sized households (6-10 members), for households reporting little or no hunger, and households composed of both female and male adults. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 57 Table 5.2. Women’s mean and median dietary diversity scores in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Mean Median n1 Est. 95% CI All women of reproductive age 2.33 2.24-2.41 2.00 3,956 Age 15-19 2.41 2.30-2.53 2.00 919 20-24 2.28 2.14-2.42 2.00 445 25-29 2.27 2.14-2.40 2.00 665 30-34 2.36 2.25-2.46 2.00 702 35-39 2.24 2.10-2.38 2.00 559 40-44 2.36 2.23-2.49 2.00 423 45-49 2.33 2.15-2.52 2.00 243 Educational attainment No education 2.22 2.13-2.31 2.00 2,257 Less than primary 2.44 2.32-2.56 2.00 1,139 Primary 2.59 2.41-2.77 3.00 337 Secondary or more 2.65 2.16-3.13 2.00 38 Gendered household type Male and female adults 2.35 2.27-2.44 2.00 3,476 Female adult(s) only 2.13 2.97-2.29 2.00 465 Male adult(s) only ^ ^ ^ 10 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ ^ ^ 5 Household size Small (1-5 members) 2.22 2.11-2.32 2.00 1,687 Medium (6-10 members) 2.42 2.33-2.52 2.00 2,161 Large (11+ members) 2.18 1.61-2.74 2.00 108 Household hunger Little to no hunger 2.34 2.26-2.43 2.00 3,842 Moderate or severe hunger 1.78 1.50-2.06 2.00 114 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size Women’s Minimum Dietary Diversity The Feed the Future MDD-W indicator uses the following 10 food groups: (1) grains, roots and tubers; (2) legumes and beans; (3) nuts and seeds; (4) dairy products; (5) eggs; (6) flesh foods, including organ meat and miscellaneous small animal protein; (7) vitamin A-rich dark green leafy vegetables; (8) other vitamin A-rich vegetables and fruits; (9) other fruits; and (10) other vegetables.18 Achievement of women’s minimum dietary diversity is defined as having consumed foods from 5 of the 10 food groups in the past 24 hours. Thus, this indicator is a dichotomous 18 The differences between the nine food groups used for the WDDS (Table 5.2), the standard FTFMS indicator, and the 10 food groups used for the new MDD-W measure (Table 5.3) include: (1) legumes and beans are separated from nuts and seeds; (2) meat (flesh foods) and organ meat are combined into one group; and (3) other fruits and other vegetables are separated into two groups. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 58 variable, and the measure is reported as the percentage of women who achieve a minimum dietary diversity. Table 5.3 shows the percentage of all women of reproductive age in the P1-ZOI who have achieved the MDD-W threshold by individual-level and household-level characteristics. Individual￾level characteristics include women’s age and educational attainment. Household-level characteristics include of gendered household type, household size and household hunger. Close to 5 percent of women consume from 5 or more food groups. The following differences in MDD￾W are observed. The proportion of households that attained the MDD-W increases with educational attainment of households. However, the proportion that attained dietary diversity remains extremely low even among the most educated women. The proportion of women in household that reported little or no hunger that achieved MDD-W is considerably higher relative to those in households with moderate or severe hunger. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 59 Table 5.3. Percentage of women of reproductive age achieving minimum dietary diversity in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Percent n1 Est. 95% CI All women of reproductive age 4.7 3.7-5.9 3,956 Age 15-19 5.1 3.6-7.3 919 20-24 5.7 4.0-8.2 445 25-29 5.1 3.6-7.3 665 30-34 3.7 2.5-5.3 702 35-39 4.0 2.4-6.6 559 40-44 4.2 2.6-6.9 423 45-49 5.3 3.0-9.3 243 Educational attainment No education 3.6 2.7-4.9 2,257 Less than primary 5.7 4.1-7.9 1,139 Primary 8.5 5.9-12.0 337 Secondary or more 10.3 4.0-14.1 38 Gendered household type Male and female adults 4.7 3.7-6.0 3,476 Female adult(s) only 4.6 2.7-7.7 465 Male adult(s) only ^ ^ 10 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ ^ 5 Household size Small (1-5 members) 3.5 2.5-4.8 1,687 Medium (6-10 members) 5.5 4.3-7.0 2,161 Large (11+ members) 6.9 2.3-18.8 108 Household hunger Little to no hunger 4.8 3.8-6.0 3,842 Moderate or severe hunger 0.0 0.0-0.0 114 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregated sample size. Table 5.4 shows the percentages of women age 15-49 years who consumed each of the 9 WDDS food groups by dietary diversity achievement status. The percentage of all women who consumed each of the 9 food groups is shown (the “Overall” column), as well as the percentages among women who achieve a minimum dietary diversity and among women who do not achieve a minimum dietary diversity. The consumption of animal source foods (dairy, organ meat and flesh foods) is much more prevalent among the women who achieved minimum dietary diversity. Similarly, women who achieved minimum dietary diversity are more likely to consume fruits and vegetables than those who did not achieve minimum dietary diversity. Grains, roots and tubers as well as legumes/nuts are prominent food categories among women. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 60 Table 5.4. Percentage of women who consumed foods in the P1-ZOI, by achievement of minimum dietary diversity status Food group Percent Achieved minimum dietary diversity Did not achieve minimum dietary diversity Overall Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Grains, roots and tubers 97.3 93.0-90.0 81.2 77.3-84.6 82.0 78.2-85.3 Legumes nuts 82.1 74.2-87.9 52.6 47.1-58.7 54.3 48.5-59.9 Dairy products 78.3 70.0-84.9 21.1 18.7-23.7 23.8 21.3-26.4 Organ meats 20.0 12.1-31.2 1.0 0.7-1.5 1.9 1.3-2.8 Eggs 53.3 44.1-62.2 4.6 3.7-5.7 6.9 5.7-8.2 Flesh foods and other misc. small animal protein 59.2 48.7-69.0 12.7 10.5-15.3 14.9 12.5-17.6 Vitamin A-rich dark green leafy vegetables 71.2 61.4-79.4 30.0 25.3-35.2 32.0 27.3-37.0 Other Vitamin A-rich vegetables and fruits 61.0 50.6-70.4 12.2 10.3-14.3 14.5 12.5-16.7 Other fruits and vegetables 27.0 19.5-36.0 2.2 1.6-3.1 3.4 2.5-4.5 n 188 3,768 3.956 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. Table 5.5 compares the WDDS and MDD-W indicators between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys. Women’s dietary diversity score was 1.59 at the baseline while it increased to 2.33 in the end-line. This is an increase in WDDS of 46.5 percent, although starting from a very low base. Similarly, the percentage of women achieving minimum dietary diversity increased from less than 2 percent in the baseline to 4.6 percent at the end-line. That is, the proportion achieving MDD-W more than doubled during the period. Both of these changes are statistically significant. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 61 Table 5.5. Comparison of women’s dietary diversity between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p￾valueb Sig. Characteristic Mean c 95% CI na Mean 95% CI na Women’s Mean Dietary Diversity Score (Mean number of food groups consumed) All women of reproductive age 1.59 1.46-1.72 3,978 2.33 2.24-2.41 3,956 0.000 *** Woman’s age 15-19 1.73 1.54-1.91 798 2.41 2.30-2.53 919 20-24 1.54 1.40-1.68 706 2.28 2.14-2.42 445 25-29 1.58 1.43-1.72 900 2.27 2.14-2.40 665 30-34 1.56 1.40-1.73 579 2.36 2.25-2.46 702 35-39 1.53 1.38-1.68 525 2.24 2.10-2.38 559 40-44 1.38 1.38-1.77 256 2.36 2.23-2.49 423 45-49 1.55 1.35-1.75 223 2.33 2.15-2.52 243 Woman’s education No education 1.47 1.34-1.60 2,712 2.22 2.13-2.31 2,257 Less than primary 1.79 1.64-1.93 933 2.44 2.32-2.56 1,139 Primary 2.00 1.73-2.26 238 2.59 2.41-2.77 337 Secondary or more ^ ^ 22 2.65 2.16-3.13 38 Gendered household type Male and female adults 1.60 1.47-1.72 3,333 2.35 2.27-2.44 3,476 Female adults only 1.57 1.39-1.74 605 2.13 2.97-2.29 465 Male adults only 1.55 1.11-1.99 39 ^ ^ 10 Children only ^ ^ 1 ^ ^ 5 Women’s Minimum Dietary Diversity (Percent of women achieving minimum dietary diversity) All women of reproductive age 1.8 1.2-2.9 3,978 4.7 3.7- 5.9 3,956 0.000 *** Woman’s age 15-19 3.1 1.6-5.9 789 5.1 3.6-7.3 919 20-24 1.8 1.1-3.0 706 5.7 4.0-8.2 445 25-29 1.8 1.0-3.2 900 5.1 3.6-7.3 665 30-34 1.6 0.6-3.8 579 3.7 2.5-5.3 702 35-39 1.5 0.7-3.2 525 4.0 2.4-6.6 559 40-44 0.9 0.3-2.8 256 4.2 2.6-6.9 423 45-49 0.4 0.1-2.7 223 5.3 3.0-9.3 243 Woman’s education No education 1.3 0.8-2.1 2,712 3.6 2.7-4.9 2,257 Less than primary 2.4 1.3- 4.4 933 5.7 4.1-7.9 1,139 Primary 5.7 3.2- 9.9 238 8.5 5.9-12.0 337 Secondary or more ^ ^ 22 10.3 4.0-24.1 38 Gendered household type Male and female adults 1.8 1.2-2.9 3,333 4.7 3.7-6.0 3,476 Female adults only 1.8 0.7-4.8 605 4.6 2.7-7.7 465 Male adults only 2.8 0.4-17.8 39 ^ ^ 10 Children only ^ ^ 1 ^ ^ 5 Source: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey, Ethiopia 2018. a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates at the overall indicator level. A test of statistical significance in differences between the baseline and end-line estimates was conducted. A t-test of differences in means was used for WDDS, and a Pearson’s chi-squared test of differences in proportions was used for MDD-W. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 62 5.2.2 Infant and Young Child Feeding This section presents young children’s dietary intake measures, including the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children 0-5 months and the prevalence of children 6-23 months consuming a minimum acceptable diet. Exclusive Breastfeeding Exclusive breastfeeding provides children with significant health and nutrition benefits, including protection from gastrointestinal infections and reduced risk of mortality due to infectious disease. Exclusive breastfeeding means the infant receives breast milk (including expressed breast milk or breast milk from a wet nurse) and may receive oral rehydration salts, vitamins, minerals or medicines, but does not receive any other food or liquid. This indicator measures the percentage of children 0-5 months who were exclusively breastfed during the day preceding the survey. Table 5.6 shows the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children 0-5 months in the P1-ZOI. Estimates are shown for all children, as well as by children’s sex and by educational attainment of the child’s primary caregiver. Note that the data are collected for the self-identified primary caregiver and not strictly for the biological mother, although it is often the same person. Nearly three-quarters of all children aged 0-5 months are exclusively breastfed. The percentage is marginally higher for female children. Table 5.6. Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children 0-5 months in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Percent n1 Est. 95% CI All children 0-5 months 74.5 63.4-83.1 111 Child sex Male 73.9 58.9-84.8 57 Female 75.1 62.0-84.8 54 Caregiver educational attainment2 No education 74.2 63.0-82.9 110 Less than primary ^ ^ 0 Primary ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 0 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size. 2 The ZOI Survey identifies the primary caregiver of each age-eligible child. This person is likely, but not necessarily, the child’s biological mother. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 63 Minimum Acceptable Diet (MAD) The prevalence of children 6-23 months consuming a minimum acceptable diet (MAD) measures the proportion of young children who receive a MAD, taking their breastfeeding status into consideration. This composite indicator measures both the minimum feeding frequency and minimum dietary diversity based on caregiver reports of the frequency with which the child was fed and the foods that the child consumed during the 24 hours preceding the survey. Calculation of the indicator requires data on children’s age in months, breastfeeding status, dietary diversity, number of semi-solid or solid feeds, and number of milk feeds. Table 5.7 presents the Feed the Future MAD indicator for children 6-23 months in the P1-ZOI. Estimates are shown for all children, as well as by characteristics of the child, caregiver and household. Child characteristics include sex and age. Caregiver characteristics includes educational attainment. Household characteristics include gendered household type, household size and household hunger. Less than 10 percent of the children aged 6-23 months received a MAD. A marginally higher percentage of female children received a MAD. A higher proportion of older children aged 18- 23 months received a MAD, with the proportion of older children receiving a MAD about 50 percent and three times higher relative to children aged 12-17 and 6-11 months, respectively. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 64 Table 5.7. Prevalence of children 6-23 months who receive a minimum acceptable diet in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Percent n1 Est. 95% CI All children 6-23 months 8.4 6.4-11.0 639 Child sex Male 7.5 5.0-11.1 324 Female 9.3 6.4-13.1 315 Child age 6-11 months 3.9 1.7-8.3 184 12-17 months 8.7 5.8-12.8 273 18-23 months 12.4 8.3-18.1 182 Caregiver educational attainment2 No education 8.4 6.4-11.0 637 Less than primary ^ ^ 2 Primary ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 8.4 6.3-11.1 591 Female adult(s) only 8.3 3.1-20.7 46 Male adult(s) only ^ ^ 1 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ ^ 1 Household size Small (1-5 members) 7.6 4.7-12.0 225 Medium (6-10 members) 9.0 6.2-12.9 395 Large (11+ members) ^ ^ 19 Household hunger Little to no hunger 8.5 6.4-11.2 616 Moderate or severe hunger ^ ^ 23 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey, Ethiopia 2018. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size. 2 The ZOI Survey identifies the primary caregiver of each age-eligible child. This person is likely, but not necessarily, the child’s biological mother. Table 5.8 presents the percentages of children achieving the minimum meal frequency and minimum dietary diversity, as well as the percentages of children consuming each of the food groups included in the MAD indicator. Estimates are shown for all children, as well as by child’s age, and are presented separately for breastfed children and non-breastfed children. Table 5.8 shows that a large proportion (over 80 percent) of breastfed children are achieving the minimum meal frequency requirement but dietary diversity is extremely low among all children in the ZOI. The percentage of children who are not breastfed that achieved minimum meal Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 65 frequency requirement of MAD is less than 20 percent. Most of these children (both breastfed and non-breastfed) consume staples (grains, roots and tubers), but fruits and vegetables and animal source food consumption is low, especially meat and eggs. Table 5.8.: Comparison of percent of children 6-23 months of age in the PI-ZOI achieving minimum feeding frequency, dietary diversity, and consuming specified foods, in total and by breastfeeding status and age, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Breastfeeding status and food group consumed Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) All Child age (months) All Child age (months) children 6-11 12-17 18-23 children 6-11 12-17 18-23 All children 6-23 months of age Achieving minimum meal frequency 41.2 28.7 45.1 48.1 75.1 66.2 81.8 73.7 Achieving minimum dietary diversity 3.5 3.2 2.6 4.8 11.1 7.3 10.0 16.6 Consuming: Grains, roots and tubers 40.2 28.9 41.6 49.1 61.4 49.4 62.8 71.4 Legumes and nuts 26.7 16.1 28.1 34.7 37.4 22.7 39.4 48.9 Dairy products 22.1 20.1 24.1 21.6 29.4 26.0 31.8 29.2 Flesh foods 1.9 2.4 1.0 2.5 13.6 8.2 13.4 19.3 Eggs 7.1 6.0 5.3 10.4 10.5 9.8 9.4 13.1 Vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables 13.8 8.6 15.8 16.0 25.1 17.4 26.3 31.2 Other fruits and vegetables 3.2 1.9 4.6 2.8 5.8 6.6 5.1 6.0 Number of children 658 193 262 203 648 188 277 183 Breastfed children Achieving minimum meal frequency 44.0 29.4 47.1 55.6 81.2 68.4 86.8 86.7 Achieving minimum dietary diversity 3.4 3.3 2.8 4.4 11.1 7.5 9.2 18.1 Consuming: Grains, roots and tubers 38.8 28.2 40.5 47.8 60.2 49.3 61.8 70.1 Legumes and nuts 27.1 15.2 29.3 36.9 37.7 22.9 39.8 51.1 Dairy products 21.7 20.3 23.7 20.5 28.7 26.6 29.4 30.1 Flesh foods 1.6 2.2 1.0 1.8 14.1 8.5 13.4 21.7 Eggs 6.9 6.1 5.6 9.8 10.4 10.1 9.4 12.5 Vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables 13.5 8.9 15.4 15.8 24.8 17.3 26.1 31.3 Other fruits and vegetables 3.4 2.0 4.8 3.0 6.0 6.8 5.1 6.4 Number of breastfed children 588 181 241 166 587 182 254 151 Non-breastfed children Achieving minimum meal frequency 7.5 ^ ^ 8.6 13.3 ^ ^ 6.9 Achieving minimum milk feeding frequency 7.5 ^ ^ 8.6 15.0 ^ ^ 6.9 Achieving minimum dietary diversity 4.7 ^ ^ 7.2 11.8 ^ ^ 8.9 Consuming: Grains, roots and tubers 57.8 ^ ^ 55.7 74.2 ^ ^ 78.0 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 66 Breastfeeding status and food group consumed Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) All Child age (months) All Child age (months) children 6-11 12-17 18-23 children 6-11 12-17 18-23 Legumes and nuts 21.3 ^ ^ 23.4 34.4 ^ ^ 37.9 Dairy products 27.1 ^ ^ 27.2 36.5 ^ ^ 24.2 Flesh foods 5.4 ^ ^ 6.3 8.7 ^ ^ 7.1 Eggs 8.8 ^ ^ 13.6 11.9 ^ ^ 16.5 Vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables 17.1 ^ ^ 17.3 28.5 ^ ^ 30.6 Other fruits and vegetables 1.2 ^ ^ 1.9 3.8 ^ ^ 3.6 Number of non-breastfed children 49 5 12 32 61 6 23 32 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. Table 5.9 compares the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children 0-5 months and the prevalence of children 6-23 months receiving a MAD between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys. Although there is a marginal increase in the proportion of exclusively breastfed children (0-5 months) in the end-line relative to the baseline, the change is not statistically significant in both female and male children. There is an increase in the end-line of the proportion of children achieving a MAD from the baseline (from about 3 percent to 7 percent for male children and to 9 percent for female children). That is, the proportion that received a MAD more than doubled in both female and male children albeit from very low initial levels. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 67 Table 5.9. Comparison of children’s dietary intake between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p￾valueb Sig.c Characteristic % 95% CI na % 95% CI na Exclusive breastfeeding children 0-5 months All children 0-5 months of age 72.2 65.3-78.3 204 74.5 63.5-83.0 111 0.709 n/s Child’s sex Male 71.5 61.5-79.7 96 73.9 58.9-84.8 57 Female 72.9 62.2-81.4 108 75.1 62.0- 84.8 54 Caregiver’s educationd No education 72.2 65.3-78.3 204 74.2 63.0-82.9 110 Less than primary ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Primary ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 73.8 66.5-79.9 177 75.3 63.9-84.0 107 Female adults only ^ ^ 20 ^ ^ 3 Male adults only ^ ^ 7 ^ ^ 0 Children only ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Minimum acceptable diet children 6-23 months All children 0-5 months of age 3.4 2.0-5.7 633 8.4 6.4-11.0 639 0.003 ** Child’s sex Male 3.5 1.6-7.6 328 7.5 5.0-11.1 324 Female 3.3 1.7-6.4 305 9.3 6.4-13.1 315 Caregiver’s educationd No education 3.4 2.0-5.8 633 8.4 6.4-11.0 637 Less than primary ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 2 Primary ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 3.1 1.8-5.4 571 8.4 6.3-11.1 591 Female adults only 2.1 0.3-13.9 52 8.3 3.1-20.7 46 Male adults only ^ ^ 10 ^ ^ 1 Children only ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 1 Source: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey, Ethiopia 2018. a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates at the overall indicator level. A Pearson’s chi-squared test of statistical significance in differences in proportions between the baseline and 2018-2019 estimates was conducted. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 68 6. Nutritional Status of Women and Children This chapter presents findings on the nutritional status of women and children, including the Feed the Future phase one anthropometry indicators. 6.1 Body Mass Index of Women Age 15-49 Years Body mass index (BMI) is a calculation used to understand nutritional status, particularly of adults. BMI is the weight of the individual in kilograms divided by their height in meters squared (weight[kg] / height[m]2 ). BMI is an inexpensive and easy-to-perform method of screening for weight category: underweight, normal or healthy weight, overweight, and obese. BMI is interpreted directly using categories with specific cut-off points, which is useful when assessing the nutritional status of adults. A high BMI can be an indicator of high body fatness, but BMI is not diagnostic of the body fatness or health of an individual. To determine if a high BMI is a health risk, a healthcare provider would need to perform further assessments. Table 6.1 presents women’s mean BMI and the percentage of women by BMI category: underweight (BMI < 18.5), normal weight (18.5 ≤ BMI < 25.0), overweight (25.0 ≤ BMI < 30.0), and obese (BMI ≥ 30.0). Estimates are shown for all non-pregnant women of reproductive age, as well as disaggregated by individual- and household-level characteristics. Individual characteristics include age and educational attainment. Household characteristics include gendered household type, household size and household hunger. BMI of women of reproductive age averaged 20.3. The underweight prevalence is 22 percent while about 4 percent of the women were over-weight or obese. There exist little differences in average BMI and proportion of women in different BMI categories across age, educational achievement and other categories of women. For instance, although mean BMI appears to increase with age the difference between the highest and lowest mean BMIs is less than 0.7. Similarly, relative to women in households with moderate or severe hunger, the proportion underweight is higher and the proportion with normal weight is lower for those in households with no hunger. Table 6.2 compares women’s anthropometry results between the phase one baseline and end￾line ZOI Surveys. The table indicate that there was a slight increase (0.23) in mean BMI of women in the end-line relative to the baseline. The prevalence of severely underweight women in the end-line is 1.5 percentage points lower than the baseline while the prevalence of underweight women in the end-line is 4 percentage points lower. The prevalence of over-weight and obese women in the end-line was no different from the baseline. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 69 Table 6.1. Mean BMI and prevalence of underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese women in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Mean BMI BMI category (percent) n1 Under-weight Normal weight Over-weight Obese Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI All non-pregnant women of reproductive age 20.3 20.2-20.5 21.9 19.9-24.0 74.3 72.2-76.3 3.4 2.8-4.2 0.4 0.2-0.7 3,604 Age 15-19 20.0 19.7-20.2 27.3 23.4-31.5 69.6 65.5-73.5 2.9 1.9-4.3 0.2 0.1-0.9 903 20-24 20.5 20.2-20.8 18.0 13.9-23.0 78.0 72.9-82.5 4.0 2.5-6.3 0.0 0.0-0.0 407 25-29 20.4 20.2-20.6 21.5 18.0-25.5 75.0 70.8-78.8 3.2 2.0-5.1 0.3 0.1-1.3 562 30-34 20.4 20.2-20.7 18.5 15.3-22.3 77.5 73.6-80.9 3.3 2.1-5.1 0.7 0.3-1.9 597 35-39 20.6 20.4-20.9 19.0 15.5-23.1 76.4 72.0-80.2 4.0 2.5-6.3 0.6 0.2-1.9 504 40-44 20.4 20.1-20.7 21.8 17.0-27.5 74.6 68.5-79.8 2.9 1.6-5.4 0.7 0.2-2.3 393 45-49 20.3 20.0-20.7 23.9 18.2-30.8 70.9 64.0-77.0 4.6 2.4-8.5 0.6 0.1-3.8 238 Educational attainment No education 20.4 20.2-20.6 20.8 18.5-23.3 75.3 72.7-77.7 3.5 2.7-4.4 0.5 0.2-1.0 2,005 Less than primary 20.2 20.0-20.4 24.4 21.1-28.1 72.2 68.6-75.5 3.0 2.1-4.3 0.4 0.1-1.0 1,062 Primary 20.4 20.1-20.8 21.1 16.8-26.2 74.6 69.5-79.1 3.9 2.1-6.9 0.4 0.0-2.5 319 Secondary or more 21.4 20.6-22.2 18.2 8.7-34.2 78.7 62.9-89.0 3.1 0.4-18.5 0.0 0.0-0.0 37 Gendered household type Male and female adults 20.4 20.2-20.5 21.8 19.7-23.9 74.4 72.3-76.4 3.4 2.7-4.1 0.5 0.3-0.8 3,143 Female adult(s) only 20.2 20.0-20.5 22.2 18.3-26.6 74.0 69.5-78.0 3.8 2.3-6.3 0.0 0.0-0.0 446 Male adult(s) only ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 10 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 5 Household size Small (1-5 members) 20.2 20.1-20.4 23.5 21.0-26.1 73.1 70.4-75.8 3.1 2.3-4.2 0.3 0.1-0.7 1,526 Medium (6-10 members) 20.4 20.3-20.6 20.4 18.1-22.9 75.5 73.0-77.9 3.6 2.8-4.6 0.4 0.2-0.8 1,981 Large (11+ members) 20.3 19.3-21.2 26.4 17.0-38.5 67.2 57.2-75.9 3.9 1.1-13.3 2.5 0.6-10.3 97 Household hunger Little to no hunger 20.3 20.2-20.5 22.1 20.1-24.3 74.0 71.9-76.0 3.4 2.8-4.2 0.4 0.2-0.7 3,495 Moderate or severe hunger 20.4 20.0-20.9 14.1 8.2-23.0 84.0 73.4-90.9 2.0 0.5-7.3 0.0 0.0-0.0 109 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 70 Table 6.2 Comparison of the nutritional status of women between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Characteristic Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p-valueb Sig.c % 95% CI na % 95% CI na Average BMI All non-pregnant women of reproductive age 20.1 20.0-20.3 3,517 20.3 20.2-20.5 3,604 0.007 ** Woman’s age 15-19 19.9 19.7-20.2 742 20.0 19.7-20.2 903 20-24 20.1 19.9-20.4 597 20.5 20.2-20.8 407 25-29 20.3 20.1-20.5 747 20.4 20.2-20.6 562 30-34 20.2 19.9-20.4 510 20.4 20.2-20.7 597 35-39 20.2 20.0-20.5 470 20.6 20.4-20.9 504 40-44 19.9 19.4-20.3 238 20.4 20.1-20.7 393 45-49 20.0 19.6-20.4 213 20.3 20.0-20.7 238 Woman’s education No education 20.1 20.0-20.3 2,380 20.4 20.2-20.6 2,005 Less than primary 20.0 19.8-20.2 837 20.2 20.0-20.4 1.062 Primary 20.2 19.8-20.6 217 20.4 20.1-20.8 319 Secondary or more ^ ^ 22 21.4 20.6-22.2 37 Prevalence of severely underweight women (%) All non-pregnant women of reproductive age 3.8 3.2-4.7 3,517 2.3 1.8-3.0 3,604 0.001 ** Woman’s age 15-19 6.2 4.4-8.5 742 4.8 3.2-7.2 903 20-24 3.0 1.8-5.0 597 1.6 0.8-3.3 407 25-29 1.1 0.5-2.2 747 1.2 0.5-2.5 562 30-34 3.7 2.3-5.9 510 2.0 1.1-3.5 597 35-39 3.7 2.1-6.3 470 1.2 0.5-2.6 504 40-44 5.6 3.3-9.1 238 1.0 0.4-2.4 393 45-49 6.4 3.9-10.2 213 2.1 0.9-4.7 238 Woman’s education No education 3.7 2.9-4.7 2,380 1.7 1.2-2.4 2,005 Less than primary 4.5 3.3-6.3 837 3.7 2.4-5.7 1,062 Primary 3.5 1.7-6.9 217 2,4 1.2-4.8 319 Secondary or more ^ ^ 22 0.0 0.0-0.0 37 Prevalence of underweight women (%)1 All non-pregnant women of reproductive age 26.0 23.8-28.3 3,517 21.9 19.9-24.0 3,604 0.002 ** Woman’s age 15-19 31.2 27.4-35.3 742 27.3 23.4-31.5 903 20-24 22.7 19.2-26.6 597 18.0 13.9-23.0 407 25-29 21.3 18.0-24.9 747 21.5 18.0-25.5 562 30-34 24.0 20.1-28.3 510 18.5 15.3-22.3 597 35-39 25.3 21.0-30.1 470 19.0 15.5-23.1 504 40-44 34.0 27.7-40.9 238 21.8 17.0-27.5 393 45-49 30.3 24.1-37.2 213 23.9 18.2-30.8 238 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 71 Characteristic Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p-valueb Sig.c % 95% CI na % 95% CI na Woman’s education No education 25.7 23.3-28.3 2,380 20.8 18.5-23.3 2,005 Less than primary 27.4 24.1-31.0 837 24.4 21.1-28.1 1,062 Primary 24.7 19.1-31.4 217 21.1 16.8-26.2 319 Secondary or more ^ ^ 22 18.2 8.7-34.2 37 Prevalence of overweight women (%) All non-pregnant women of reproductive age 3.0 2.4-3.8 3,517 3.4 2.8-4.2 3,604 0.409 n/s Woman’s age 15-19 2.9 1.8-4.5 742 2.9 1.9-4.3 903 20-24 2.5 1.5-4.2 597 4.0 2.5-6.3 407 25-29 2.4 1.5-3.9 747 3.2 2.0-5.1 562 30-34 2.4 1.4-4.0 510 3.3 2.1-5.1 597 35-39 3.8 2.4-5.8 470 4.0 2.5-6.3 504 40-44 5.6 2.6-11.6 238 2.9 1.6-5.4 393 45-49 4.2 2.2-7.9 213 4.6 2.4-8.5 238 Woman’s education No education 2.8 2.1-3.8 2,380 3.4 2.7-4.4 2,005 Less than primary 3.6 2.5-5.2 837 3.0 2.1-4.3 1,062 Primary 2.9 1.2-6.5 217 3.9 2.2-6.9 319 Secondary or more ^ ^ 22 3.1 0.4-18.5 37 Prevalence of obese women (%) All non-pregnant women of reproductive age 0.4 0.2-0.8 3,517 0.4 0.2-0.7 3,604 0.786 n/s Woman’s age 15-19 1.2 0.6-2.4 742 0.2 0.1-0.9 903 20-24 0.2 0.0-1.3 597 0.0 0.0-0.0 407 25-29 0.1 0.0-0.5 747 0.3 0.1-1.2 562 30-34 0.0 0.0-0.0 510 0.7 0.3-1.9 597 35-39 0.0 0.0-0.0 470 0.6 0.2-1.9 504 40-44 0.5 0.1-3.3 238 0.7 0.2-2.3 393 45-49 0.7 0.2-2.9 213 0.6 0.1-3.8 238 Woman’s education No education 0.3 0.1-0.7 2,380 0.5 0.2-1.0 2,005 Less than primary 0.4 0.1-1.1 837 0.4 0.1-1.0 1,062 Primary 1.6 0.5-5.5 217 0.4 0.0-2.5 319 Secondary or more ^ ^ 22 0.0 0.0- 0.0 37 Source: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey, Ethiopia 2018. 1 Prevalence of underweight women is a Feed the Future ZOI indicator. a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, disaggregate sample sizes may not total to the aggregated sample size. b Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates at the overall indicator level. A Pearson’s chi-squared test of differences was used for proportions while a t-test of differences in means was used for continuous indicators. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 72 6.2 Stunting, Wasting, Underweight among Children Under 5 Years This section presents three indicators that rely on anthropometric measurements of children under five years in the P1-ZOI: stunting (low height-for-age), wasting (low weight-for-height) and underweight (low weight-for-age). 6.2.1 Stunting (Low Height-for-Age) Stunting is an indicator of linear growth retardation, most often due to a prolonged inadequate diet and poor health. Reducing the prevalence of stunting among children, particularly age 0-23 months, is important because linear growth deficits accrued early in life are associated with cognitive impairments, poor educational performance and decreased work productivity as adults (c.f. Black et al. 2008, Victora et al. 2008). Stunting is a height-for-age measurement that reflects chronic undernutrition. This indicator measures the percentage of children 0-59 months who are stunted, as defined by a height-for-age z-score more than two standard deviations (SDs) below the median of the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standard.19 The stunting measures presented below include the Feed the Future ZOI Survey indicator of stunting—moderate or severe (<-2 SD)— and the indicator for severe stunting (<-3 SD). Mean z-scores are also presented. Table 6.3 shows the prevalence of stunting and severe stunting and mean height-for-weight z￾scores for children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI. Estimates are presented for all children and by child, caregiver and household characteristics. Child characteristics include sex and age. Caregiver characteristics include educational attainment. Household characteristics include gendered household type, household size and household hunger. Out of children of under 5 years of age nearly 39 percent are stunted, and 17.6 percent are severely stunted. Growth faltering occurs during the second 12 months of children whereby the proportion of children aged 12-23 months stunted and severely stunted is double the proportion aged 0-11 months. The HAZ score stabilizes after the second years of life. This is a typical pattern observed in many low-income countries. The proportion of male and female children stunted is similar. The proportion of stunted children in households with moderate or severe hunger is 10 percentage points lower than those in households with little to no hunger, which appears to be counter intuitive. Similarly, the proportion stunted and severely stunted in households with larger family size is over 10 percentage points lower than those in medium and small family size. 19 WHO. (2006). Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 73 Table 6.3. Prevalence of stunting and mean height-for-age z-scores among children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Percent Mean z-score n1 Stunted (<-2 SD) Severely stunted (<-3 SD) Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI All children under 5 years 38.9 36.1-41.8 17.6 15.6-19.8 -1.4 -1.5- -1.2 1,963 Child sex Male 38.8 34.9-42.8 17.2 14.6-20.1 -1.4 -1.5- -1.2 976 Female 39.0 35.8-42.3 18.0 15.8-20.5 -1.3 -1.5- -1.2 987 Child age 0-11 months 19.6 14.5-25.9 8.3 5.2-13.0 -0.3 -0.5-0.0 234 12-23 months 41.0 35.8-46.4 17.8 14.0-22.3 -1.4 -1.6- -1.2 398 24-35 months 43.7 38.1-49.5 20.7 16.7-25.5 -1.5 -1.8- -1.3 406 36-47 months 42.1 37.0-47.5 18.7 15.3-22.5 -1.5 -1.7- -1.3 483 48-59 months 39.1 34.0-44.4 18.3 14.6-22.7 -1.5 -1.7- -1.4 442 Caregiver educational attainment2 No education 38.8 36.0-41.7 17.5 15.5-19.7 -1.4 -1.5- -1.2 1,958 Less than primary ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 4 Primary ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 39.1 36.2-42.0 17.6 15.6-19.9 -1.4 -1.5- -1.2 1,808 Female adult(s) only 33.6 25.7-42.5 14.9 9.4-22.8 -1.1 -1.4- -0.8 137 Male adult(s) only ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 15 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 2 Household size Small (1-5 members) 39.9 35.9-44.1 16.1 13.3-19.3 -1.5 -1.6- -1.3 676 Medium (6-10 members) 38.9 35.4-42.5 19.1 16.7-21.8 -1.4 -1.5- -1.2 1,229 Large (11+ members) 26.5 15.2-42.0 5.8 2.1-15.0 -0.3 -1.0-0.4 57 Household hunger Little to no hunger 39.2 36.3-42.1 17.6 15.6-19.9 -1.4 -1.5- -1.2 1,901 Moderate or severe hunger 28.4 18.7-40.7 17.2 8.9-30.5 -1.1 -1.6- -0.7 61 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size. 2 The ZOI Survey identifies the primary caregiver of each age-eligible child. This person is likely, but not necessarily, the child’s biological mother. 6.2.2 Wasting (Low Weight-for-Height) Wasting is an indicator of acute malnutrition. Children who are wasted are too thin for their height and have a much greater risk of dying than children who are not wasted. The wasting ZOI indicator measures the percentage of children 0-59 months who are acutely malnourished, as Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 74 defined by a weight-for-height z-score20 more than 2 SDs below the median of the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standard, in the P1-ZOI. The wasting measures presented below include the Feed the Future ZOI Survey indicator of wasting—moderate or severe (<-2SD), the indicator for severe wasting (<-3SD), and the percentage of children who are overweight (>-2SD) and obese (>-3SD). Mean z-scores are also presented. Table 6.4 shows the prevalence of wasting, severe wasting, and mean weight-for-height z-scores for children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI. The table also shows the prevalence of overweight and obese children under 5 years, as calculated using their weight-for-height z-scores, in the P1-ZOI. Estimates are presented for all children and by child, caregiver and household characteristics. Child characteristics include sex and age. Caregiver characteristics include educational attainment. Household characteristics include gendered household type, household size and household hunger. Out of all children under 5 years of age, 9.7 percent are wasted, 3.7 percent are severely wasted, 2.7 percent are overweight, and 1 percent obese. The prevalence of wasting is generally higher among children under 2 years of age relative to those 2 years or older. Moreover, the proportion of female children wasted is slightly (2.5 percentage points) lower than males while the proportion in households with only female adults is 3.5 percentage points higher than those in households with male and female adults. The proportion of children in households with moderate and severe hunger that are wasted is about twice the proportion in households with little to no hunger, respectively. 20 A weight-for-length z-score is calculated for children 0-23 months of age and any other children who are measured lying down. A weight-for-height z-score is calculated for children 24-59 months of age who are measured standing up. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 75 Table 6.4. Prevalence of wasting and mean weight-for-height z-scores among children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Percent Mean z-score n1 Wasted Severely wasted (<-3 SD) Overweight (> +2SD) Obese (> +3SD) Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI All children under 5 years 9.7 7.8-12.0 3.7 2.7-5.0 2.7 2.0-3.7 1.0 0.7-1.7 -0.3 -0.4- -0.2 1,916 Child sex Male 11.0 8.7-13.9 4.9 3.6-6.8 2.5 1.7-3.6 0.9 0.4-1.7 -0.3 -0.4- -0.2 950 Female 8.4 6.3-11.2 2.4 1.5-3.9 3.0 1.9-4.5 1.2 0.7-2.3 -0.2 -0.4- -0.1 966 Child age 0-11 months 13.3 9.0-19.2 6.5 3.5-11.9 7.8 5.2-11.5 3.5 1.9-6.4 -0.2 -0.5-0.1 221 12-23 months 12.2 9.4-15.6 3.2 1.9-5.4 2.3 1.0-5.1 0.9 0.3-2.4 -0.4 -0.5- -0.2 391 24-35 months 7.5 4.7-11.8 3.1 1.5-6.2 2.7 1.4-5.0 0.5 0.1-2.0 -0.1 -0.3-0.0 396 36-47 months 7.7 5.1-11.4 4.2 2.6-6.7 2.8 1.6-5.0 1.1 0.5-2.7 -0.2 -0.4- -0.1 479 48-59 months 10.0 7.1-13.7 2.7 1.5-4.9 0.2 0.0-1.6 0.2 0.0-1.6 -0.4 -0.5- -0.2 429 Caregiver’s educational attainment2 No education 9.7 7.8-12.0 3.7 2.7-5.0 2.7 2.0-3.7 1.0 0.6-1.6 -0.3 -0.4- -0.2 1,913 Less than primary ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 2 Primary ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 9.5 7.6-11.8 3.7 2.7-5.0 2.9 2.1-4.0 1.1 0.7-1.8 -0.2 -0.3- -0.1 1,763 Female adult(s) only 12.9 7.7-20.8 3.7 1.6-8.5 0.7 0.0-4.9 0.0 0.0-0.0 -0.5 -0.8- -0.3 136 Male adult(s) only ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 15 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 1 Household size Small (1-5 members) 8.0 6.0-10.6 2.6 1.6-4.1 2.4 1.4-4.1 1.3 0.6-2.4 -0.2 -0.4- -0.1 658 Medium (6-10 members) 10.4 7.9-13.5 4.1 2.8-6.0 2.8 2.0-3.9 0.8 0.4-1.5 -0.3 -0.4- -0.1 1,205 Large (11+ members) 16.3 7.0-33.6 8.3 3.5-18.5 5.1 1.2-19.0 3.7 0.9-14.5 -0.5 -1.0-0.1 52 Household hunger Little to no hunger 9.5 7.6-11.7 3.6 2.7-5.0 2.7 2.0-3.7 1.1 0.7-1.7 -0.3 -0.4- -0.2 1,858 Moderate or severe hunger 17.8 10.0-29.7 5.1 1.8-13.7 3.2 0.8-11.4 0.0 0.0-0.0 -0.1 -0.5- -0.4 57 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size. 2 The ZOI Survey identifies the primary caregiver of each age-eligible child. This person is likely, but not necessarily, the child’s biological mother. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 76 6.2.3 Underweight (Low Weight-for-Age) Underweight is a weight-for-age measurement that reflects acute undernutrition, chronic undernutrition, or both. This indicator measures the percentage of children 0-59 months who are underweight, as defined by a weight-for-age z-score of more than two SDs below the median of the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standard. The underweight measures presented below include the Feed the Future phase one ZOI Survey indicator of underweight—moderate or severe (<-2 SD), the indicator for severe underweight (<-3 SD), and mean weight-for-age z-scores. Table 6.5 shows the prevalence of underweight, severe underweight and mean weight-for-age z-scores for children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI. Estimates are presented for all children and by child, caregiver and household characteristics. Child characteristics include sex and age. Caregiver characteristics include educational attainment. Household characteristics include gendered household type, household size and household hunger. Out of children under 5 years of age, 22.5 percent are underweight and 7 percent severely underweight. The proportion underweight is the lowest (15 percent) among children aged 0-11 months, the highest (25 percent) among 12-23-month-olds and stabilizes after 2 years of age. Households with large family size have the highest proportion of underweight (27.5 percent) and severely underweight (21 percent) children and these proportions are over 50 percent and four times higher than the respective proportions for households with small family size. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 77 Table 6.5. Prevalence of underweight and mean weight-for-age z-scores among children under 5 years in the P1-ZOI Characteristic Percent Mean z-score n1 Underweight (<-2 SD) Severely underweight (<-3 SD) Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI Est. 95% CI All children under 5 years 22.5 20.5-24.6 7.1 5.8-8.6 -1.0 -1.1- -0.9 2,153 Child sex Male 23.9 21.1-26.7 8.0 6.3-10.1 -1.0 -1.1- -0.9 1,071 Female 21.1 18.7-23.7 6.2 4.7-8.1 -1.0 -1.1- -0.9 1,082 Child age 0-11 months 14.8 10.8-20.0 5.9 3.4-9.8 -0.3 -0.5-0.0 273 12-23 months 25.3 21.5-29.5 7.8 5.8-10.5 -1.0 -1.2- -0.9 450 24-35 months 22.1 18.2-26.5 6.9 4.6-10.2 -1.0 -1.1- -0.8 442 36-47 months 22.3 18.9-26.0 7.7 5.7-10.3 -1.1 -1.2- -1.0 516 48-59 months 24.8 21.2-28.9 6.6 4.6-9.4 -1.3 -1.4- -1.2 472 Caregiver’s educational attainment2 No education 22.5 20.5-24.6 7.1 5.8-8.7 -1.0 -1.1- -0.9 2,148 Less than primary ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 4 Primary ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 22.1 20.2-24.2 6.9 5.6-8.5 -1.0 -1.1- -0.9 1,976 Female adult(s) only 24.5 17.9-32.5 7.9 4.5-13.4 -1.2 -1.4- -1.0 157 Male adult(s) only ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 17 Child(ren) only (no adults) ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ 2 Household size Small (1-5 members) 18.0 15.2-21.3 4.8 3.4-6.7 -1.0 -1.1- -0.8 732 Medium (6-10 members) 24.6 22.0-27.4 7.6 6.1-9.4 -1.0 -1.1- -0.9 1,346 Large (11+ members) 27.5 16.4-42.4 21.0 11.5-35.1 -0.9 -1.6- -0.3 74 Household hunger Little to no hunger 22.5 10.5-24.6 7.2 5.9-8.8 -1.0 -1.1- -0.9 2,084 Moderate or severe hunger 20.7 13.5-30.5 4.1 1.4-11.1 -0.8 -1.1- -0.4 68 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. ^ Results not statistically reliable, n<30. 1 Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size. 2 The ZOI Survey identifies the primary caregiver of each age-eligible child. This person is likely, but not necessarily, the child’s biological mother. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 78 Table 6.6 compares children’s anthropometry results between the phase one baseline and end￾line ZOI Surveys. Table 6.6 indicates that all children’s anthropometry measures showed considerable improvement in the end-line relative to the baseline. The prevalence of stunted children under 5 years of age is 11.5 percentage points lower in the end-line than in the baseline or the prevalence of stunting declined by 23 percent during the period. Similarly, the proportion of wasted children in the end-line was 4.4 percentage points less than the proportion in the baseline, and this was a decline of 31 percent in the prevalence of wasting during the period. Moreover, the proportion of underweight children in the end-line was 9 percentage points less than that in the baseline or the prevalence of underweight children declined by 28.6 percent during the period. Table 6.6 Comparison of the nutritional status of children between the Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p￾valueb Sig.c Characteristic % 95% CI na % 95% CI na Prevalence of stunted children under 5 years All children under 5 years of age 50.3 47.1-53.5 1,553 38.9 36.1-41.8 1,962 0.000 *** Child’s sex Male 52.9 48.7-57.1 778 38.8 34.9-42.8 976 Female 47.7 43.6-51.8 775 39.0 35.8-42.3 987 Child’s age 0-11 months 39.8 29.6-50.9 106 19.6 14.5-25.9 234 12-23 months 52.0 46.0-57.9 274 41.0 35.8-46.4 398 24-35 months 53.3 47.1-59.4 331 43.7 38.1-49.5 406 36-47 months 52.9 48.0-57.7 406 42.1 37.0-47.5 483 48-59 months 47.0 41.2-53.0 436 39.1 34.0-44.4 442 Woman’s education No education 50.4 47.1-53.6 1,551 38.8 36.0-41.7 1,958 Less than primary ^ ^ 1 ^ ^ 4 Primary ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 50.2 46.7-53.6 1,360 39.1 36.2-42.0 1,808 Female adults only 50.8 42.3-59.3 162 33.6 25.7-42.5 137 Male adults only 54.0 36.4-70.6 31 ^ ^ 15 Children only ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 2 Prevalence of wasted children under 5 years All children under 5 years of age 14.1 11.9-16.6 1,471 9.7 7.8-12.0 1,916 0.010 * Child’s sex Male 14.3 11.8-17.3 733 11.0 8.7-13.9 950 Female 13.9 11.1-17.2 738 8.4 6.3-11.2 966 Child’s age Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 79 Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) p￾valueb Sig.c Characteristic % 95% CI na % 95% CI na 0-11 months 14.9 9.0-23.5 97 13.3 9.0-19.2 221 12-23 months 13.8 9.4-19.8 257 12.1 9.4-15.6 391 24-35 months 13.5 9.5-18.9 318 7.5 4.7-11.8 396 36-47 months 14.9 11.7-18.9 386 7.7 5.1-11.4 479 48-59 months 13.7 9.9-18.6 413 10.0 7.1-13.7 429 Woman’s education No education 14.1 11.9-16.6 1,469 9.7 7.8-12.0 1,913 Less than primary ^ ^ 1 ^ ^ 2 Primary ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 14.1 11.8-16.9 1,292 9.5 7.6-11.8 1,763 Female adults only 12.5 8.1-18.9 151 12.9 7.8-20.7 136 Male adults only ^ ^ 28 ^ ^ 15 Children only ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 1 Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years All children under 5 years of age 31.5 28.6-34.6 2,102 22.5 20.5-24.6 2,153 0.000 *** Child’s sex Male 32.2 29.1-35.3 1,050 23.9 21.2-26.7 1,071 Female 30.9 26.9-35.3 1,052 21.1 18.8-23.7 1,082 Child’s age 0-11 months 28.7 21.4-37.2 163 14.8 10.8-20.0 273 12-23 months 33.2 28.6-38.3 397 25.3 21.5-29.5 450 24-35 months 33.0 28.4-37.9 478 22.1 18.2-26.5 442 36-47 months 31.0 26.9-35.5 534 22.3 18.9-26.0 516 48-59 months 30.4 26.1-35.0 530 24.8 21.2-28.9 472 Woman’s education No education 31.6 28.7-34.7 2,099 22.5 20.5-24.6 2,148 Less than primary ^ ^ 1 ^ ^ 4 Primary ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Secondary or more ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 0 Gendered household type Male and female adults 31.8 28.8-35.0 1,866 22.1 20.2-24.2 1,976 Female adults only 29.2 22.9-36.3 199 24.5 17.9-32.5 157 Male adults only 29.5 16.3-47.4 37 ^ ^ 17 Children only ^ ^ 0 ^ ^ 2 Source: Feed the Future Baseline Survey 2013, Ethiopia; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey, Ethiopia 2018. a Records missing information for the disaggregate variables have been excluded from the disaggregated estimates. The unweighted sample size reflects this loss in observations; therefore, subsamples may not total to the aggregate sample size. b A Pearson’s chi-squared test of statistical significance in differences in proportions between the baseline and 2018-2019 estimates was conducted. c Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 80 7. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture This chapter presents findings related to the WEAI. Although women play a prominent role in agriculture, they face persistent economic and social constraints. Because of this, women’s empowerment is a main focus of Feed the Future. Empowering women is particularly important to achieving the Feed the Future objectives of inclusive agriculture sector growth and improved nutritional status. The WEAI was originally developed to track the change in women’s empowerment that occurs as a direct or indirect result of interventions under Feed the Future and as a programming tool to identify and address the constraints that limit women’s full engagement in the agriculture sector.21 Data to calculate the WEAI was collected in both the Feed the Future Ethiopia phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys. All the results related to the WEAI are presented here. 7.1 Overview The WEAI measures empowerment across five domains, which are presented in Table 7.1, together with their definitions, corresponding empowerment indicators and what it means to achieve adequacy in each empowerment indicator. The Production domain reflects individuals’ ability to provide input and autonomously make decisions about agricultural production. The Resources domain reflects individuals’ ownership of productive resources and input into decisions related to credit. The Income domain reflects individuals’ ability to direct the financial resources derived from productive economic activities and durable goods. The Leadership domain reflects individuals’ social capital and comfort speaking in public within their community. The Time domain reflects individuals’ workload and satisfaction with leisure time. An individual is identified as “empowered” by WEAI if he or she achieves adequacy in at least 80 percent of the weighted indicators (equivalent to four out of five domains). 21 Alkire, S. Malapit, H., et al. (2013). Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 81 Table 7.1 WEAI domains, indicators and definitions of adequacy Domain Definition of domain Indicators Percent with adequate achievement Production Sole or joint decision-making over food and cash crop farming, livestock, and fisheries, and autonomy in agricultural production Input in productive decisions Respondents have at least some input into or can make own personal decisions in at least two decision-making areas Autonomy in production Respondent has an RAI (Relative Autonomy Indicator)22 greater than 1 in at least one of the four areas of decision-making. Resources Ownership, access to and decision-making power over productive resources such as land, livestock, agricultural equipment, consumer durables and credit Ownership of assets Respondents own alone or jointly at least two small assets or one large asset. Purchase, sale or transfer of assets Respondents decide to sell, give away or rent at least one asset, but not only chickens and non-mechanized farming equipment Access to and decisions on credit Respondents decide alone or jointly whether to borrow or what to do with the money or item borrowed.1 Income Sole or joint control over income and expenditures Control over use of income Respondents have some input into decisions on income, but not only minor household expenditures Leadership Membership in economic or social groups and comfort in speaking in public Group member Respondents are active members of at least one group in their community. 2 Speaking in public Respondents feel comfortable speaking in at least one public setting Time Allocation of time to productive and domestic tasks and satisfaction with the available time for leisure activities Workload Respondents spend less than 10.5 hours performing work activities in a 24-hour period.3 Leisure Respondents rate satisfaction level as at least five out of 10 1 Respondents who live in households that did not access credit are considered inadequate on access to credit and decisions on credit. 2 Respondents who report that no groups exist in their communities or who are not aware of any groups in their community are considered inadequate on group membership. 3 Respondents who reported the 24 hours preceding the survey to being an atypical workday are excluded. The WEAI aggregates information collected for each domain into a single empowerment index indicator. The index comprises two sub-indices: the Five Domains of Empowerment Index (5DE), which measures the empowerment of women across the five WEAI domains, and the Gender Parity Index (GPI), which measures the relative empowerment of men and women within the household. The WEAI is computed as a weighted sum of the 5DE and GPI. The WEAI survey module is administered to the male primary adult decision-maker and the female primary adult decision-maker in each household so that the 5DE profiles of women and men in the same household can be compared. The primary adult decision-makers are individuals 22 The Relative Autonomy Indicator (RAI) measures the ability of a person to act on what he or she values, to have his or her own intrinsic motivations prevail over motivations to please others or avoid punishment, for example. This indicator probes the person’s own understanding of the situation and enables the respondent to easily explain the different motivations that influence activities (Alkire 2007). Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 82 age 18 or older who self-identify as the primary decision-makers during the collection of the household roster information.23 There can only be one female and one male primary adult decision-maker in each household; however, a household can have only a female primary adult decision-maker or only a male primary adult decision-maker. If there are no adults 18 or older in the household, the household will not have any primary adult decision-makers. The questionnaire for the WEAI section is administered separately to the primary and secondary respondent, where the primary respondent in this case refers to the primary female decision￾maker age 18 or older. We have a total of 3,252 female adult decision-makers and 2,527 male adult decision-makers (secondary respondent). This chapter presents findings on the WEAI, the 10 WEAI empowerment indicators, and the two WEAI sub-indices. Appendix 2.3 presents more information on the WEAI, including the survey questions that are used to elicit the data required to establish adequacy for each WEAI empowerment indicator and the adequacy criteria definitions for each WEAI empowerment indicator. For additional details refer to IFPRI (2013). 24 Section 7.1 includes an overview of the empowerment results: 1) achievement of adequacy for each WEAI empowerment indicator; 2) 5DE, GPI and WEAI scores; and 3) contribution of each WEAI empowerment indicator to the disempowerment of women and men. Subsequent sections in this chapter present more detailed results by empowerment domain. Table 7.2a and Table 7.2b present the average percentage of women and men who are disempowered and achieving adequacy in the 10 WEAI indicators at both baseline and at end-line using censored headcounts. The purpose of reporting on the average percentage of women who are disempowered achieving adequacy across the 10 WEAI indicators overall, which is a Feed the Future context indicator, and for the individual indicators is two-fold: to bring greater attention to the composition of empowerment and disempowerment, and to identify the individual indicators that present the greatest constraints to empowerment for women and men. On average, 39 percent of female primary adult decision-makers are disempowered and achieved adequacy in the 10 WEAI indicators during the end-line. The corresponding figure (24 percent) is lower for male primary adult decision-makers. Relative to non-youths, a higher proportion of both female and male youth (18-29-year-olds) are disempowered and achieved adequacy in the 10 WEAI indicators. Table 7.2a: Comparison of average percent of primary adult decision-makers in the PI￾ZOI achieving adequacy in the 10 WEAI indicators, using censored 23 The respondents to the WEAI survey module are only the primary adult decision-makers in the household and, therefore, may not be representative of the entire female and male populations in the surveyed area. 24 IFPRI (2013). https://www.feedthefuture.gov/the-womens-empowerment-in-agriculture-index/. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 83 headcounts, by sex and age, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end￾line ZOI Surveys Notes: Estimates are based on primary adult decision-makers who are de jure household members. The Feed the Future ZOI context indicator, “Average percent of women achieving adequacy across the 10 indicators of the WEAI,” is calculated as the sum of the censored headcount ratios for primary adult female decision-makers for each of the 10 WEAI indicators, divided by 10 (the number of indicators.) It shows the average across the 10 indicators of proportion of primary adult female decision-makers in the ZOI population who are disempowered but still achieved adequacy in an individual WEAI indicator. Table 7.2b presents the censored headcount ratios of individuals achieving adequacy in the 10 WEAI indicators, disaggregated by sex and age. The proportion of women who are not yet empowered but have adequate achievement is higher relative to men during the end-line for all WEAI indicators except speaking in public and for the most part, this pattern holds for both age groups as well as during the baseline. The results indicate that primary women decision-makers have adequacy levels of higher than 50 percent during the end-line in control over use of income, input in productive decisions, ownership of assets, purchase and sale or transfer of assets, and autonomy in production. Primary men adult decision-makers have adequacy levels of less than 50 percent in indicators. Both primary men and women adult decision-makers had the lowest achievement in access to and input into decisions on credit. WEAI indicator Baseline (2013) End-line(2018) % 95% CI n % 95% CI n Womenc Averaged 40 38-42 3,466 39 39-39 3,251 Age category 18-29 39 37-42 1,247 40 40-40 647 30+ 40 38-41 2,219 38 38 -38 2,604 Mene Averaged 32 29-34 2,998 24 24-24 2,542 Age category 18-29 35 32-37 682 32 32-32 270 30+ 31 28-33 2,316 23 23-23 2,272 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 84 Table 7.2b: Comparison of adequate achievement in each WEAI indicator in PI-ZOI using censored headcount ratios, by sex and age, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys WEAI indicator and characteristic Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) % 95% CI n % 95% CI n Diff. Women Input in productive decisions 67.1 65.1-68.3 2,178 63.4 61.7-65.2 1,943 -3.7 Age category 18-29 66.7 63.8-69.2 794 64.8 61.1-68.7 397 -1.9 30+ 67.3 64.8-68.8 1,384 63.1 61.6-65.4 1,546 -4.2 Ownership of assets 55.7 53.6-57.0 1,806 62.6 60.5-63.9 1,906 6.9 Age category 18-29 55.5 52.2-57.8 657 67.1 62.7-70.2 407 11.6 30+ 55.8 53.3-57.6 1,149 61.5 59.6-63.5 1,499 5.7 Access to and decisions on credit 5.9 5.1-6.7 193 11.1 9.4-11.6 322 5.2 Age category 18-29 6.1 4.6-7.2 71 14.2 10.4-15.7 80 8.1 30+ 5.8 4.9-6.9 122 10.3 8.7-11.1 242 4.5 Control over income 67.3 65.4-68.6 2,187 63.9 62.3-65.7 1,959 -3.4 Age category 18-29 68.7 65.6-70.9 815 67.2 63.6-71.0 412 -1.5 30+ 66.6 64.2-68.3 1,372 63.2 61.6-65.5 1,547 -3.4 Group membership 28.2 27.0-30.1 933 22.3 21.0-23.9 689 -5.9 Age category 18-29 27.7 26.1-31.2 342 22.2 19.2-25.8 138 -5.5 30+ 28.4 26.6-30.5 591 22.3 20.9-24.3 551 -6.1 Workload 35.2 33.5-36.7 1,148 42.3 40.9-44.5 1,309 7.1 Age category 18-29 31.7 29.3-34.6 382 37.7 34.6-42.4 236 6 30+ 37.3 34.9-39.1 766 43.5 42.1-46.1 1,073 6.2 Autonomy in production 54 52.6-56.0 1,773 52.7 50.5-54.1 1,602 -1.3 Age category 18-29 53.5 51.5-57.2 649 56.9 52.9-60.8 348 3.4 30+ 54.3 51.5-57.2 1,124 51.7 49.5-53.5 1,254 -2.6 Purchase, sale or transfer of assets 52.7 50.3-53.7 1,699 61.3 59.0-62.5 1,860 8.6 Age category 18-29 50.6 46.9-52.6 594 64.4 59.7-67.4 389 13.8 30+ 53.9 51.2-55.5 1,105 60.5 58.5-62.4 1,471 6.6 Speaking in public 31.2 30.2-33.4 1,039 27.2 26.4-29.6 857 -4 Age category 18-29 29.8 28.3-33.5 369 30.3 27.5-34.9 191 0.5 30+ 32.0 30.3-34.4 670 26.4 25.6-29.1 666 -5.6 Leisure 32.7 30.5-33.8 1,051 20.6 19.3-22.2 635 -12.1 Age category 18-29 36.5 32.9-38.4 426 23.6 21.4-28.3 152 -12.9 30+ 30.1 28.2-32.2 625 19.9 18.3-21.4 483 -10.2 Men Input in productive decisions 57.9 55.4- 58.9 1,656 41.9 40.6-44.5 1,054 -16 Age category 18-29 62.4 58.6-66.1 408 52 47.3-59.5 139 -10.4 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 85 30+ 56.6 53.6-57.7 1,248 40.7 39.2-43.3 915 -15.9 Ownership of assets 40.5 38.4-42.0 1,165 36.9 35.7-39.5 931 -3,6 Age category 18-29 45.7 42.9-50.5 408 40.8 35.9-47.9 109 -4.9 30+ 38.9 36.3-40.3 1,248 36.4 35.1-39.1 822 -2.5 Access to and decisions on credit 3.5 2.6-3.9 93 5.5 4.5-6.2 133 2 Age category 18-29 3.5 2.1-4.9 23 7.8 4.4-10.9 20 4.3 30+ 3.5 2.4 -3.8 70 5.2 4.2-6.0 113 1.7 Control over income 56.9 54.3-57.9 1,625 41.6 40.3-44.2 1,046 -15.3 Age category 18-29 61.9 58.4-65.9 407 51.8 46.9-59.2 138 -10.1 30+ 55.4 52.3-56.4 1,218 40.5 38.9-43.0 908 -14.9 Group membership 22.6 20.7-23.7 643 12.5 11.2-13.8 310 -10.1 Age category 18-29 25.5 22.7-29.5 171 16.7 11.6-20.6 42 -8.8 30+ 21.7 19.4-22.7 472 11.9 10.7-13.4 268 -9.8 Workload 35.4 33.1-36.6 1,010 33.5 32.4-36.2 850 -1.9 Age category 18-29 38.0 34.1-41.5 248 48.6 44.6-56.8 132 10.6 30+ 34.7 32.0-35.9 762 31.7 30.4-34.3 718 -3 Autonomy in production 39.7 37.9-41.5 1,151 29.8 28.4-32.1 749 Age category 18-29 44.5 41.8-49.5 299 42.1 37.0-49.1 112 -2.4 30+ 38.2 36.0-40.0 852 28.3 26.8-30.6 637 -9.9 Purchase, sale or transfer of assets 35.6 33.3-36.8 1,015 35.2 34.0-37.8 889 -0.4 Age category 18-29 37.2 33.4-40.8 243 33.1 28.4-40.0 89 -4.1 30+ 35.2 32.5-36.4 772 35.5 34.1-38.1 800 0.3 Speaking in public 40.4 38.6-42.2 1,169 27.9 27.0-30.6 714 -12.5 Age category 18-29 42.1 38.8-46.4 279 36.2 31.4-43.2 97 -5.9 30+ 39.9 37.7-41.7 890 26.9 25.9-29.7 617 -13 Leisure 25.2 22.6-25.7 701 11.9 10.7-13.3 298 -13.3 Age category 18-29 30.3 26.3-33.2 195 21.3 17.2-27.4 58 -9 30+ 23.6 20.8-24.3 506 10.8 9.5-12.1 240 -12.8 Note: Estimates are based on primary adult decision-makers who are de jure household members. Source: Feed the Future Ethiopia ZOI Survey 2013 and 2018 Table 7.2c compares the 5DE scores for female and male primary adult decision-makers between the phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys. The 5DE shows that 29 percent of women are empowered in the end-line. The 71 percent that are not yet empowered have acquired adequacy in 63 percent of the indicators. Thus, the women’s empowerment index (5DE) is 0.738. The 5DE for men indicates that 61 percent of men are empowered and the adequacy score for the men that are not empowered is 67 percent. The 5DE scores in the end-line are higher than those in the baseline for both men and the women. Based on the five domains of empowerment, the proportion achieving empowerment is lower and the level of Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 86 disempowerment is higher among women compared to men at both the baseline and end-line. Furthermore, the decrease in the disempowerment index during the baseline-end-line period is more than twice higher for men than for women while growth in proportion of men achieving empowerment was almost 50 percent higher than women. Table 7.2c. Comparison of WEAI, 5DE and GPI scores, and average empowerment gap in the PI-ZOI, Feed the Future phase one baseline and end-line ZOI Surveys Indicator Baseline (2013) End-line (2018) Diff. p￾valuea Sig.b Est. 95% CI n Est. 95% CI n Womenc WEAI score 0.70 0.69-0.72 3265 0.75 0.75-0.76 3,047 0.05 0.000 *** Age category 18-29 0.71 0.68-0.71 1194 0.72 0.72-0.73 612 0.02 0.000 *** 30+ 0.69 0.69-0.72 2071 0.76 0.76-0.77 2,435 0.07 0.000 *** 5DE score 0.68 0.74 0.06 Women achieving empowerment (%) 22.3 718 29.2 884 6.9 0.000 *** Weighted indicators in which disempowered individuals have adequate achievements (%)d 59.0 3,466 63.0 3,047 -1.0 0.000 *** Number of women 3466 3252 GPI score 0.87 4436 0.90 3,726 0.03 Women achieving gender parity (%) 44.8 1437 48.7 1,463 3.9 0.099 * Age category 18-29 43.4 513 42.3 257 -1.1 0.77 n/s 30+ 45.9 932 50.8 1,218 4.9 0.066 * Average empowerment gap 23.5 19.3 0 *** Number of dual-adult householdse 2,218 1,863 Menf 5DE score 0.80 0.87 0.07 Men achieving empowerment (%) 42.2 912 61.0 1,116 18.8 Weighted indicators in which disempowered individuals have adequate achievements (%)d 65.0 2,998 67.0 2,542 -8.0 Number of men 2,218 1,863 Source: Feed the Future Feedback ZOI Survey, Ethiopia 2013; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. a Significance tests were performed to determine whether a difference exists between the baseline and end-line estimates. An F-test of statistical significance in differences in proportions between the baseline and 2018 estimates was conducted. b Differences found to be statistically significant are indicated by level: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001. c Estimates for women exclude households that do not have a primary adult female decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. d Also referred to as the average adequacy score. e Number of households with both a male primary adult decision-maker and a female primary adult decision-maker. f Estimates for men exclude households that do not have a primary adult male decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. Notes: Estimates are sample-weighted; numbers of observations are unweighted. Estimates are based on primary adult decision-makers who are de jure household members. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 87 The GPI shows that 49 percent of the women have gender parity with the primary males in their households at the end-line. This has shown a 4-percentage points improvement from the baseline value. The 51 percent women that did not achieve gender parity have an empowerment gap of 19.3 percent with the males in their households. This gap is 4.2 percentage points lower in the end-line relative to the 23.5 percent at the baseline. Thus, the overall GPI is 0.901 in the end-line, with a 0.031 percentage points (3.6 percent) improvement over the baseline. The WEAI, which is a weighted average of the 5DE sub-index value of 0.738 and the GPI sub-index value of 0.901, is 0.754, which is an improvement of 0.052 (7 percent) in the end-line relative to its baseline value of 0.702. Figure 7.1 shows the contribution of each empowerment indicator to the disempowerment of women and men. The indicators that contribute most to women’s disempowerment are lack of leisure, discomfort with speaking in public, lack of participation in groups, and lack of access to and decisions on credit. The indicators that contribute to men’s disempowerment are roughly similar with those that contribute to women’s disempowerment. Lack of leisure, lack of participation in groups, and lack of access to and decisions on credit are the three most important contributors to men’s disempowerment. Heavy work time requirements and discomfort speaking in public also contribute to disempowerment, but less so for men than for women. Figure 7.1: Contribution of each indicator to the disempowerment of women and men in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. Figure 7.2a shows the contribution of each of the five domains to the disempowerment of women. Figure 7.2b shows the same for men. According to Figure 7.2a, the domains that contribute most to women’s disempowerment are time, leadership and resources, accounting 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28 Women Men Disempowerment index (1 – 5DE) Leisure Workload Speaking in public Group membership Control over use of income Access to and decisions on credt Purchase, sale or transfer of assets Ownership of assets Autonomy in production Input in productive decisions Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 88 for 35, 30, and 20 percent, respectively, of disempowerment of women. The composition of men disempowerment is similar to that of the women with time, leadership and resource domains accounting for roughly similar percentages to women’s disempowerment. Figure 7.2a: Contribution of each of the five domains to the disempowerment of women in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. Figure 7.2b: Contribution of each of the five domains to the disempowerment of men in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 7.2 Production Adequacy in Production is measured by input into decisions about agricultural activities in which an individual participates and autonomy in agricultural production. Respondents are considered adequate in production if they make decisions alone, have input into most or all decisions, or feel Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 89 that they could make decisions if they wanted to for at least two agricultural activities and respondent has a relative autonomy index (RAI) greater than 1 in at least one of the four areas of agricultural decision-making. Table 7.3 presents the percentages of female and male primary adult decision-makers who are involved in agricultural activities (i.e., food crop farming, cash crop farming, livestock raising or fishing), nonfarm economic activities, and wage or salaried employment. This table also presents the percentages of female and male primary adult decision-makers who have input into the decisions made about specific activities. During the end-line, around 84 percent of women participate in food crop farming, 73 percent in livestock raising and 59 percent in cash crop farming. The proportion of men that participated in the respective activities is relatively higher at around 94 percent, 78 percent and 67 percent. Although participation in nonfarm economic activities and wage employment is generally low, the percentage of men participating in nonfarm economic activities is much higher (almost double) compared to the women. Fishing is a very rare activity for both men and female decision-makers. The percentage of women making decisions in each activity is generally high (88 percent or higher for all activities except fishing and nonfarm economic activities) but lower than the percentage of men that have input into decision-making. The gap between the percentage of men and women that participate in making decisions is the highest for nonfarm economic activities. Table 7.3. Participation in economic activities and input into activity decision-making among female and male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end￾line Survey Activity Participates in activity Has input1 into decisions about activity Female Male Female Male Percent n2 Percent n3 Percent n4 Percent n4 All primary adult decision-makers 93.9 3,252 97.6 2,527 93.6 3,039 97.6 2,460 Type of agricultural activity Food crop farming 83.9 3,252 94.4 2,527 88.9 2,691 96.3 2,367 Cash crop farming 58.9 3,252 67.3 2,527 89.7 1,863 96.3 1,659 Livestock raising 73.0 3,252 77.6 2,527 89.9 2,341 96.0 1,942 Fishing or fishpond culture 0.8 3,252 1.2 2,527 64.4 21 76.9 29 Nonfarm economic activities 11.1 3,252 13.9 2,527 87.9 351 92.1 350 Wage or salaried employment 5.8 3,252 12.1 2,527 79.2 185 95 300 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Having input means that the individual reported having input into most or all decisions regarding the activity. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. 3 Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. 4 Estimates exclude individuals who do not participate in an activity or report that no decision was made. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 90 7.3 Resources Adequacy in Resources is measured by three indicators: (1) ownership of assets, (2) Purchase, sale or transfer of assets, and (3) access to and decisions related to credit. Respondents are considered adequate in asset ownership if they own alone or jointly at least two small assets or one large asset. Respondents are considered adequate in the purchase, sale or transfer of assets if they decide to sell, give away or rent at least one asset, but not only chickens and non￾mechanized farming equipment. Respondents are considered adequate to access to credit if they decide alone or jointly whether to borrow cash or in-kind or what to do with the money or item borrowed. Table 7.4a presents the findings for ownership of productive resources. Agricultural land, large livestock and non-mechanized farm equipment are among the most commonly owned productive assets in the end-line with 91.5 percent, 77.4 percent and 71.5 percent of the households owning the assets, respectively. A relatively lower proportion of the households own means of transportation (1.4 percent), mechanized farm equipment (0.8 percent), and fishpond or fishing equipment (0.3 percent). A higher percentage of men own most assets compared to women. This gap is especially very large for cell phones. Around 39 percent of the men own cellphones while only 17.7 percent of women own cellphones. On the other hand, a higher percentage of women own poultry (chickens, ducks, turkeys and pigeons) and small consumer durables. Ownership of land is critical for livelihood in these rural communities. Surprisingly, the proportion of men that own agricultural land is only slightly (4.2 percentage points) higher than women while the proportion of women that own non-agricultural land is higher by about the same proportion. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 91 Table 7.4a. Household and female and male primary adult decision-maker ownership of productive resources in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Type of resource Someone in the household owns item Female owns solely or jointly Male owns solely or jointly Percent n1 Percent n2 Percent n3 Agricultural land 91.5 5,779 79.1 3,252 83.3 2,527 Large livestock 77.4 5,779 69.5 3,252 76.1 2,527 Small livestock 48.0 5,779 42.5 3,252 46.6 2,527 Chickens, ducks, turkeys and pigeons 50.4 5,779 41.3 3,252 35.3 2,527 Fish pond or fishing equipment 0.3 5,779 0.2 3,252 0.3 2,527 Non-mechanized farm equipment 71.5 5,779 45.9 3,252 71.1 2,527 Mechanized farm equipment 0.8 5,779 0.5 3,252 1.1 2,527 Nonfarm business equipment 3.1 5,779 2.3 3,252 2.7 2,527 House or other structures 36.8 5,779 33.9 3,252 33.7 2,527 Large consumer durables 3.6 5,779 3.3 3,252 3.9 2,527 Small consumer durables 62.1 5,779 54.4 3,252 44.4 2,527 Cell phone 40.4 5,779 17.7 3,252 38.5 2,527 Non-agricultural land 2.9 5,779 2.6 3,252 3.0 2,527 Means of transportation 1.4 5,779 0.9 3,252 1.5 2,527 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Estimates exclude households that have no primary adult decision-maker and that have missing or incomplete indicator data. Respondents who indicated “not applicable” are also excluded. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. 3 Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. Table 7.4b presents the percentage of women who can make a decision to purchase or to sell, give away, or rent owned items. Women are considered as having the ability to make a decision if they can solely make a decision or if they can make these decisions with others with any degree of input. The percentage of women and men who have input in decisions to purchase, sell, give or rent items is comparable for most items during the end-line. A relatively higher percentage of women have input in decisions related to poultry, nonfarm business equipment and small consumer durables. On the other hand, more men make decisions on farm equipment, cellphones and means of transportation compared to women. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 92 Table 7.4b. Household and female and male primary adult decision-maker control over productive resources in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Type of resource Someone in the household owns item Female can decide to purchase/sell/give/rent items Male can decide to purchase/sell/give/rent items Percent n1 Percent n1 Percent n1 Agricultural land 91.5 5,779 90.9 2,954 92.7 2,319 Large livestock 77.4 5,779 92.5 2,488 94.1 2,057 Small livestock 48.0 5,779 90.7 1,558 92.3 1,312 Chickens, ducks, turkeys and pigeons 50.4 5,779 84.7 1,622 73.8 1,263 Fish pond or fishing equipment 0.3 5,779 80.5 9 90.6 9 Non-mechanized farm equipment 71.5 5,779 69.9 2,173 94.3 1,900 Mechanized farm equipment 0.8 5,779 71.8 24 89.3 34 Nonfarm business equipment 3.1 5,779 77.7 102 67.3 99 House or other structures 36.8 5,779 94.5 1,152 94.3 881 Large consumer durables 3.6 5,779 93.2 132 94.2 122 Small consumer durables 62.1 5,779 90.1 1,980 71.5 1,602 Cell phone 40.4 5,779 48.9 1,334 81.3 1,231 Non-agricultural land 2.9 5,779 90.5 89 87.1 88 Means of transportation 1.4 5,779 63.7 47 83.1 48 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Estimates exclude households that have no primary adult decision-maker and that have missing or incomplete indicator data. Respondents who indicated “not applicable” are also excluded. Tables 7.5a and 7.5b show the third indicator of the Resources domain—access to and decision￾making on credit. Table 7.5a presents the percentage of female primary adult decision-makers who report that a member of her household received any loan in the past 12 months—overall and disaggregated by source. The percentages of households that received an in-kind loan (e.g., food items or raw materials) or a cash loan are also presented. The in-kind and cash loan categories are not mutually exclusive; a household could have received both types of loans. For female primary adult decision-makers living in households that received a loan, the table also presents the percentages who report having contributed to the decision to take the loan and the subsequent decisions on how to use the loan. Table 7.5b presents the same information for male primary adult decision-makers. About 25 percent of women reported that their household received a loan from non￾governmental organization, informal or formal lenders, friends or relatives, or group-based microfinances during the end-line. The main sources of credit are friends or relatives, and group￾based microfinance. The majority (92 percent) of women contribute to credit decisions. Particularly, a slightly higher proportion contributed on the decision how to use the loan. Table 7.5b indicates that about 29 percent of men reported that their households have taken credit. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 93 For both women and men, the major sources of credit are friends or relatives, and group-based microfinance. About the same proportion of men participated in the decision regarding loans as that of women. Table 7.5a. Access to credit among female primary adult decision-makers in the P-ZOI end-line Survey Credit source (percent)1 Any source (percent) Non￾governmental organization Informal lender Formal lender Friends or relatives Group￾based microfinan ce Household received a loan Any loan 25.4 1.9 2.5 1.3 8.4 12.8 In-kind loan 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 Cash loan 23.7 0.7 2.3 1.2 8.1 12.7 n2 3,239 3,239 3,239 3,239 3,239 3,239 Primary adult decision-maker contributed to credit decision Any decision 92.0 73.9 88.1 94.8 88.4 95.1 On whether to borrow 85.9 59.9 84.6 92.6 82.1 90.3 On how to use loan 91.5 73.9 88.1 94.8 88.4 95.1 n3 755 64 82 41 276 380 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Percentages sum to more than 100 because loans may have been received from more than one source. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. 3 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker, that did not receive a loan, or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. Table 7.5b. Access to credit among male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Credit source (percent)1 Any source (percent) Non￾governmental organization Informa l lender Formal lender Friends or relatives Group￾based microfina nce Household received a loan Any loan 29.2 2.8 2.9 1.4 9.2 14.3 In-kind loan 2.4 1.3 2.8 1.3 8.9 14.1 Cash loan 27.1 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 n2 2,523 2,523 2,523 2,523 2,523 2,523 Primary adult decision-maker contributed to credit decision Any decision 91.7 74.3 96.8 84.6 93.1 93.9 On whether to borrow 87.1 63.2 95.3 84.6 91.3 87.6 On how to use loan 91.2 74.3 95.8 84.6 92.6 93.2 n3 674 70 73 31 228 336 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Percentages sum to more than 100 because loans may have been received from more than one source. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. 3 Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker, that did not receive a loan, or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 94 7.4 Income Adequacy in Income is measured by input into decisions related to income. Respondents are considered adequate if they have substantial input into most or all decisions or feel they can make a decision for at least one economic activity. Table 7.6 shows the percentages of female and male primary adult decision-makers who have input into the decisions made regarding the use of income derived from an economic activity. Ninety-three percent of the women who participated in one or more of the economic activities had input into decision-making on use of income from the activity. While the percentage of women making income decisions is always lower relative to the percentage of men, it is very close in most activities except for fishing and nonfarm economic activities. Table 7.6. Input into decision-making on use of income among male and female primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Activity Has input1 into income from activity Female Male Percent n2 Percent n3 Total 93.2 3,201 97.5 2,515 Food crop farming 89.3 2,687 95.8 2,366 Cash crop farming 90.1 1,866 96.3 1,657 Livestock raising 90.3 2,330 96.6 1,932 Fishing or fishpond culture 73.9 20 83.0 28 Nonfarm economic activities 80.0 349 93.8 350 Wage or salaried employment 88.1 184 91.9 297 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Having input means that the individual reported having input into most or all decisions regarding the use of income generated from the activity. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. Estimates also exclude respondents who do not participate in the activity or who report that no decision was made regarding the activity. 3 Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. Estimates also exclude respondents who do not participate in the activity or who report that no decision was made regarding the activity. 7.5 Leadership Adequacy in Leadership is measured through an individual’s active involvement with community organizations and speaking in public. The first indicator of the Leadership domain is an individual’s participation in a community organization. Respondents are considered adequate in this indicator if they are active members of at least one community organization. The second indicator is an individual’s ease speaking in public and the respondent is considered adequate if she/he feels comfortable speaking in at least one public setting. Table 7.7a shows the percentages of female and male primary adult decision-makers who are active members of organizations in their community. About 44 percent of women and 55 percent of men are involved in some type of community group. The highest percentage of women and Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 95 men participate in religious groups at 33.5 and 40 percent, respectively. The percentage of men participating in all groups is higher than women; particularly, the difference is highest in membership of local government. Table 7.7a. Group membership among female and male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Type of group Is an active group member Female Male Percent1 n2 Percent1 n3 All primary adult decision-makers 43.9 3,252 55.2 2,527 Agricultural producers’ group 0.7 3,252 2.3 2,527 Water users’ group 9.6 3,252 13.7 2,527 Forest users’ group 0.9 3,252 3.3 2,527 Credit or microfinance group 3.7 3,252 5.3 2,527 Mutual help or insurance group 11.0 3,252 16.3 2,527 Trade and business association 0.2 3,252 0.5 2,527 Civic or charitable group 0.4 3,252 1.4 2,527 Local government 6.1 3,252 14.7 2,527 Religious group 33.5 3,252 40.0 2,527 Other women’s group 7.6 3,252 6.0 2,527 Other 0.0 3,252 0.2 2,527 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia 2019 1 The denominator for this percentage includes all interviewed individuals, even those who reported that no group exists or that they are unaware of the existence of a group in their community. Individuals who report that none of the groups exist or who are unaware of any groups are counted as having inadequate achievement of this empowerment indicator. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. 3 Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. The second indicator of the domain is an individual’s ease speaking in public, which is measured by three questions related to the level of difficulty an individual faces when voicing her/his opinion regarding community decisions. Table 7.7b shows that the proportion of males who feel comfortable speaking in public about community related issues (79 percent) is 32 percentage points higher than females (47 percent). The difference between the percentage of females and males with ease of public speaking in any one of the three specific issues is about the same as the difference above. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 96 Table 7.7b. Comfort with speaking in public among female and male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Topics for public discussion Comfortable speaking in public about selected topics Female Male percent n1 percent n2 All primary adult decision-makers 47.0 3,252 78.6 2,527 Topics To help decide on infrastructure to be built in the community 43.4 3,252 75.7 2,527 To ensure proper payment of wages for public works or other similar programs 41.8 3,252 71.9 2,527 To protest the misbehavior of authorities or elected officials 42.0 3,252 71.8 2,527 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia 2019 1 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. 7.6 Time Adequacy in the last domain, Time, assesses the workloads of female and male primary adult decision-makers, as directly measured using a time allocation log. Respondents are considered adequate if they spend 10.5 hours or less performing work activities from 5:00 a.m. in the morning to 9:00 p.m. in the evening. Table 7.8a shows the percentages of female primary adult decision￾makers that performed the listed activities the day prior to the survey and the average number of hours that they spent performing each activity. Table 7.8b shows the same for male primary adult decision-makers. The percentages indicate those individuals who reported performing the activity, irrespective of the length of time that they spent performing the activity. The average hours spent performing an activity is the average across all individuals, assigning zero hours to individuals who did not perform an activity. Both primary and secondary activities are presented. Individuals were allowed to report up to two activities per time use increment (30 minutes). If the individual reported performing two activities, one was designated as the primary activity, and the other as a secondary activity. Some individuals may not have reported a secondary activity for each 30-minute period. Cooking and domestic cleaning duties take a lion share of women's time on average. Women also contribute a considerable share of their time to farm and livestock-related activities. In contrast, the majority of men’s time is spent on farming and livestock-related activities followed by time with family. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 97 Table 7.8a. Time allocation among female primary adult decision-makers in the P1- ZOI end-line Survey Activity Primary activity Secondary activity1 Percent of women Mean hours devoted Percent of women Mean hours devoted Sleeping and resting 99.9 3.66 12.1 2.17 Eating and drinking 98.6 2.33 19.7 1.31 Personal care 59.2 0.58 8.0 0.35 School and homework 1.3 0.02 0.4 0.01 Work as employed 1.2 0.06 0.3 0.06 Own business work 2.3 0.11 0.5 0.08 Farming/livestock/fishing 42.8 1.79 5.5 1.05 Shopping/getting services 6.7 0.23 2.0 0.13 Weaving, sewing, textile care 0.5 0.01 1.2 0.01 Cooking 77.7 2.05 16.1 1.08 Domestic work (cleaning) 75.9 3.20 19.5 1.68 Gathering fuelwood/fetching water 24.7 0.34 3.8 0.19 Care for children/adults/elderly 15.3 0.39 10.2 0.39 Travel and commuting 8.7 0.18 1.6 0.12 Watching TV/listening to radio/reading 1.2 0.02 0.6 0.01 Sitting with family 42.1 1.00 11.4 0.59 Hobbies/sports/exercising/reading 3.0 0.06 0.6 0.04 Religious activities 18.0 0.43 3.1 0.26 Social/community activities 16.3 0.44 2.4 0.25 Selling 2.7 0.08 0.4 0.00 Other 0.4 0.01 0.0 0.05 n 3,252 3,252 3,252 3,252 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Respondents were allowed to report up to two activities per time use increment (30 minutes) from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. prior to the survey. If two activities were reported, one was designated as the primary activity, and the other as a secondary activity. Some women may not have reported a secondary activity for each 30-minute period. 2 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 98 Table 7.8b. Time allocation among male primary adult decision-makers in the P1-ZOI end-line Survey Activity Primary activity Secondary activity1 Percent of men Mean hours devoted Percent of men Mean hours devoted Sleeping and resting 99.5 3.74 13.8 3.14 Eating and drinking 98.5 2.49 19.2 2.15 Personal care 62.3 0.73 8.4 0.62 School and homework 0.9 0.02 0.5 0.02 Work as employed 3.6 0.23 0.8 0.19 Own business work 3.2 0.16 0.4 0.13 Farming/livestock/fishing 81.3 5.38 9.2 4.64 Shopping/getting services 5.0 0.22 2.1 0.18 Weaving, sewing, textile care 0.7 0.02 1.5 0.01 Cooking 5.0 0.10 1.1 0.07 Domestic work (cleaning) 8.3 0.22 1.7 0.17 Gathering fuelwood/fetching water 5.8 0.09 0.8 0.07 Care for children/adults/elderly 3.8 0.06 1.5 0.05 Travel and commuting 13.3 0.33 2.0 0.27 Watching TV/listening to radio/reading 3.3 0.06 2.1 0.06 Sitting with family 53.7 1.42 12.8 1.26 Hobbies/sports/exercising/reading 5.2 0.10 1.0 0.08 Religious activities 22.5 0.54 4.7 0.46 Social/community activities 26.7 0.90 3.7 0.79 Selling 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.13 Other 0.7 0.01 0.0 0.01 n 2,527 2,527 2,527 2,527 Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Respondents were allowed to report up to two activities per time use increment (30 minutes) from 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. prior to the survey. If two activities were reported, one was designated as the primary activity, and the other as a secondary activity. Some women may not have reported a secondary activity for each 30-minute period. Estimates exclude households that do not have a male primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete data. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 99 8. Summary and Conclusions This report provides information about the ZOI indicators during the 2013-2018 (baseline-end￾line) period. The assessment is designed for use as a monitoring tool, and as such provides point estimates of the indicators with an acceptable level of statistical precision. However, Feed the Future ZOI sample calculations are not designed to support conclusions of causality or program attribution, nor is the end-line assessment designed to measure change from the baseline. The Ethiopia ZOI end-line survey was conducted by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in conjunction with its data collection partner, BST Consulting PLC. Fieldwork for the ZOI Survey took place between September and October 2018. Twelve Feed the Future indicators were included in this assessment: (1) Daily per capita expenditures (as a proxy for income) in USG-assisted areas; (2) Prevalence of poverty; (3) Depth of poverty; (4) Prevalence of households with moderate or severe hunger; (5) Women’s dietary diversity; (6) Prevalence of children 6-23 months receiving a minimum acceptable diet (MAD); (7) Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children under 6 months of age; (8) Prevalence of underweight women; (9) Prevalence of stunted children under 5 years of age; (10) Prevalence of wasted children under 5 years of age; (11) Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age; and (12) Women's Empowerment in Agricultural Index (WEAI). Household Economic Status The daily per capita expenditures in the Feed the Future ZOI was $2.19 (in 2010 USD) in 2018 and 32.3 percent of the population fell below the $1.25/day (2005 PPP) poverty line. The depth of poverty is estimated at 12.2 percent. Relative to the baseline, daily per capita expenditure is higher, and the prevalence and depth of poverty is lower in the end-line. Hunger and Dietary Intake Prevalence of households with moderate or severe hunger is 3.3 percent and this is 30 percent lower than the proportion in the baseline (4.9 percent), though this rather very low rate may be due to the non-validity of the measure in Ethiopia. Dietary diversity is extremely low. Women of reproductive age consume from an average 2.3 food groups in a day, and only 4.6 percent of women achieve the minimum dietary diversity or consume from at least 5 food groups. Only 8.4 percent of children 6-23 months receive a MAD. Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children under 6 months of age is higher at about 74 percent. The proportion of children 6-23 months that receive a MAD, and the mean and minimum dietary diversity of women of reproductive age in the end-line were statistically significantly higher relative to the baseline. Nutritional Status of Women and Children Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 100 Nearly 22 percent of women of reproductive age are underweight. Prevalence of stunted children under 5 years of age is about 39 percent. The prevalence of wasting is about 10 percent while 22.5 percent of children under 5 years of age are underweight. The proportion of underweight women of reproductive age, and the proportion of underweight, stunted, and wasted children under 5 years of age statistically significantly declined during the baseline-end-line period. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Women’s empowerment is measured through the full Women Empowerment in Agricultural Index (WEAI). In 2018, the WEAI for the ZOI in Ethiopia is estimated as 0.75. Small improvements across all domains are recorded. Access to and input into decisions on credit is a major constraint to women's empowerment. Lack of leisure time, group membership and speaking in public are also among important contributors to women’s disempowerment. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 101 References Alkire, S., Malapit, H., Meinzen-Dick, R., Peterman, A., Quisumbing, A., Seymour, G., and Vaz, A. (2013). Instructional Guide on the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). (2013). Retrieved from http://www.ifpri.org/publication/womens-empowerment-agriculture-index. Alkire, S., Meinzen-Dick, R., Peterman, A., Quisumbing, A., Seymour, G., and Vaz, A. (2013). The Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index. World Development, 52(C), 71-91. Ballard, T.; Coates, J.; Swindale, A.; and Deitchler, M. (2011). Household Hunger Scale: Indicator Definition and Measurement Guide. Washington, DC: Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance II Project, FHI 360. Black, R.E., et al. (2008) Maternal and Child Undernutrition: Global and Regional Exposures and Health Consequences. The Lancet. 371(9608):243-260. Darnton-Hill, I., et al. (2005) Micronutrient deficiencies and gender: social and economic costs. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, May 2005, 81(Supplement): 1198S-1205S. Deaton, A. (2008). The Analysis of Household Surveys: A microeconomic approach to development policy. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. Deaton, A. and Zaidi, S. (2002). “Guidelines for constructing consumption aggregates for welfare analysis, Working Paper No. 135. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Deitchler, M., Ballard, T., Swindale, A., and Coates, J. (2011). FANTA Technical Note No. 12: Introducing a Simple Measure of Household Hunger for Cross-Cultural Use. Washington, DC: USAID. Foster, J., Suman S., Lokshin, M. and Sajaia, Z. (2013). A Unified Approach to Measuring Poverty and Inequality: Theory and Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank.115-118. Grosh, M.E. and Munoz, J. (1996). A manual for planning and implementing the living standards measurement study survey. Living Standards Measurement Study Group Working Paper No. 126. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Grosh, M. and Glewwe, P. (1995). A Guide to Living Standards Measurement Study Surveys and Their Data Sets. Living Standards Measurement Study Group Working Paper No. 120. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Haughton, J. and Khandker, S. (2009). Handbook on poverty and inequality. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Hoenig, John M., and Heisey, Dennis M. (2001). “The Abuse of Power: The Pervasive Fallacy of Power Calculations for Data Analysis,” The American Statistician, 55(1); 19-24. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 102 Kaplinsky, R. and Morris, M. A Handbook for Value Chain Analysis. Ottawa, Canada: International Development Research Center. Maxwell, D., Coates, J., and Vaitla, B. (2013). How Do Different Indicators of Household Food Security Compare? Empirical Evidence from Tigray. Feinstein International Center, Tufts University: Medford, USA. Mckenzie, David, and Ozier, O. (2019) “Why ex-post power using estimated effect sizes is bad, but an ex-post MDE is not,” at https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/why-ex-post￾power-using-estimated-effect-sizes-bad-ex-post-mde-not (May 16, 2019). NPC (September 2017). “Ethiopia’s Progress Towards Eradicating Poverty - An Interim Report on 2015/16 Poverty Analysis Study,” National Planning Commission (NPC), Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. United Nations Development Group (UNDP). (2003). Indicators for monitoring the Millennium Development Goals: definitions, rationale, concepts and sources. New York: United Nations. University of Oxford. (2013). Alkire Foster Method: OPHI’s method for multidimensional measurement. Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI). Retrieved from http://www.ophi.org.uk/research/multidimensional-poverty/alkire-foster-method. UNSTATS. N.d. SDG Indicators – Metadata repository. Available at: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/. USAID. (2013). Feed the Future Indicator Handbook: Definition Sheets (updated October 18, 2014). Victora, C.G., et al. (2008). Maternal and Child Undernutrition: Consequences for Adult Health and Human Capital. The Lancet. 371(9608):340-357. Webber, C.M. and Labaste, P. (2010). Building Competitiveness in Africa's Agriculture: A Guide to Value Chain Concepts and Applications. Washington, DC: The World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2401 WHO and UNICEF. (2006). WHO Child Growth Standards and the Identification of Severe Acute Malnutrition in Infants and Children. World Health Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund. WHO/UNICEF/USAID/AED/FANTA 2/UC DAVIS/IFPRI/UNICEF. (2010). Indicators for Assessing Infant and Young Child Practices (Part 2 Measurements). Zhang, L.C. (1999). A note on post-stratification when analyzing binary survey data subject to nonresponse. Journal of Official Statistics, 15(2): 329-334. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 103 Appendix 1. Supplementary Data and Figures Table A1.1. ZOI Survey 2018 Feed the Future indicator estimates Unweighted sample sizes, point estimates, standard deviations, confidence intervals, design effects and nonresponse rates for the Feed the Future indicators for the ZOI. Indicator Estimate SE 95% CI DEFF Nonresp onse rate (%)1 Unweight ed number Weighted number Lower Upper Daily per capita consumption expenditures 2010 USD All households 2.19 0.0422 2.10 2.27 2.5 3.0 3,876 3,876 Male and female 2.21 0.048 2.12 2.31 2.3 3.6 3,089 3,091 Female adult(s) only 1.95 0.081 1.79 2.11 1.3 0.0 665 668 Male adult(s) only 2.05 0.259 1.53 2.56 1.0 0.9 115 110 Prevalence of Poverty: Percent of people living on less than $1.25/day (2005) All households 32.3 0.003 30.8 33.8 3.8 3.0 3,876 3,876 Male and female 31.3 0.008 29.6 32.9 3.6 3.6 3,089 3,091 Female adult(s) only 40.8 0.020 37.1 44.6 1.5 0.0 665 668 Male adult(s) only 36.3 0.045 27.3 45.1 1.0 0.9 115 110 Depth of Poverty: Mean percent shortfall relative to the $1.25/day poverty All households 12.2 0.003 11.4 12.8 1.5 3.0 3,876 3,876 Male and female 11.7 0.003 10.9 12.5 1.7 3.6 3,089 3,091 Female adult(s) only 15.8 0.009 13.9 17.6 1.0 0.0 665 668 Male adult(s) only 12.5 0.020 8.5 16.4 1.0 0.9 115 110 Prevalence of moderate and severe hunger All households 3.3 0.003 2.6 4.2 1.9 0.2 3,882 3,882 Male and female 2.5 0.003 1.9 3.3 1.7 0.3 3,098 3,100 Female adult(s) only 6.8 0.009 5.0 9.3 1.2 0.0 661 665 Male adult(s) only 6.6 0.022 3.1 13.4 1.1 0.0 116 110 Women dietary diversity: Mean number of food groups consumed by women All women ages 15-49 2.3 0.018 2.2 2.4 5.4 1.4 3,956 3,971 Prevalence of underweight women of reproductive age All non-pregnant women 21.9 0.007 19.9 24.0 2.3 0.0 3,604 3,616 Prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding among children under 6 months of age All children 74.5 0.042 63.4 83.1 1.4 0.0 111 111 Male children 73.9 0.719 58.9 84.8 1.2 0.0 57 56 Female children 75.1 0.060 62.0 84.8 1.0 0.0 54 55 Prevalence of children 6-23 months receiving a minimum acceptable diet (%) All children 8.4 0.011 6.4 11.0 1.1 1.4 639 633 Male children 7.5 0.015 5.0 11.1 1.1 1.2 324 323 Female children 9.3 0.016 6.4 13.1 1.0 1.6 315 310 Prevalence of stunted children under 5 Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 104 All children 38.9 0.011 36.1 41.8 1.7 11.1 1,963 1,954 Male children 38.8 0.015 34.9 42.8 1.7 11.8 976 972 Female children 39.0 0.015 35.8 42.3 1.1 10.5 987 981 Prevalence of wasted children under 5 All children 9.7 0.006 7.8 12.0 2.4 11.7 1,916 1,910 Male children 11.0 0.010 8.7 13.9 1.7 12.5 950 951 Female children 8.4 0.008 6.3 11.2 1.9 11.0 966 959 Prevalence of underweight children under 5 years of age All children 22.5 0.009 20.5 24.6 1.3 2.5 2,153 2,138 Male children 23.9 0.013 21.2 26.7 1.1 3.2 1,071 1,066 Female children 21.1 0.012 18.7 23.7 1.1 1.9 1,082 1,073 Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (score) All women 0.75 0.0007 0.75 0.76 1.9 0.0 3,252 3252 Women ages 18-29 0.72 0.003 0.72 0.73 1.3 0.0 647 643 Women ages 30 and 0.76 0.002 0.76 0.77 1.7 0.0 2,605 2608 Source: Source: Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. Note. The number of child-headed households in the sample is too small to obtain any valid estimate. SE = standard error; CI = confidence interval; DEFF = design effect. 1 The nonresponse rates are calculated as the fraction of the expected number of respondents for each indicator and respondent type. Table A1.2. Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index results for indicators that compose the 5 domains of empowerment, using uncensored headcount ratios Domain Indicator Baseline End-line p-value2 Percent n1 Percent n1 Production Input in productive decisions 88.3 3,401 91.7 3,167 0.001 Autonomy in production 74.7 3,416 80.6 3,209 0.012 Resources Ownership of assets 80.0 3,464 90.8 3,252 0.000 Purchase, sale or transfer of assets 74.5 3,464 88.7 3,252 0.000 Access to and input into decisions on credit 15.0 3,431 23.4 3,239 0.000 Income Control over use of income 89.0 3,391 92.1 3,201 0.001 Leadership Group membership 44.8 3,463 44.7 3,191 0.985 Speaking in public 48.0 3,463 47.0 3,252 0.771 Time Workload 52.3 3,445 67.0 3,252 0.000 Leisure 49.7 3,461 40.7 3,252 0.003 Source: Feed the Future Feedback ZOI Survey, Ethiopia 2013; Feed the Future End-line ZOI Survey 2018, Ethiopia. 1 Estimates exclude households that do not have a female primary adult decision-maker or that have missing or incomplete indicator data. ‘ 2 An F-test of statistical significance in differences in proportions between the baseline and 2018 estimates was conducted. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 105 Appendix 2. Methodology A2.1 Sampling and Weighting25 The Feed the Future Ethiopia End-line ZOI Survey 2018 is the third round of the Feed the Future surveys designed and implemented starting at the baseline in 2013. It is a panel survey covering the same households first surveyed at baseline (2013). Recall that the original objective was to conduct an impact evaluation of Feed the Future investments. It was agreed at the time that, given the design of the program and limits to the budget for evaluation studies, the most feasible evaluation strategy is matching based on samples of households within and outside of the Feed the Future ZOI. Sample size with sub-samples were determined accordingly using the relevant power calculations using incidence of poverty (poverty headcount) as the primary indicator (see “Sampling at baseline” below). At end-line, this objective was modified to tracking the difference in the levels of high-level program indicators estimated at baseline and end-line for households in the Feed the Future ZOI only. Households outside of the ZOI were dropped from the sample as a consequence. Accordingly, the level of the indicators (all proportions other than two – daily per capita consumption expenditure and WEAI) were estimated for the baseline and the end-line. Subsequently, the two are compared for each indicator to ascertain whether there is a statistically significant difference between them. Nevertheless, the change in objective of comparison and sample at end-line implies that the ex￾ante power calculations prior to the baseline is no longer applicable. What are the options? The most obvious choice is to redo the power calculations ex-post – or compute post-hoc power. However, there appears to be a consensus that this is neither meaningful nor helpful (see Mckenzie and Ozier (2019), Hoenig and Heisey (2001), and references therein. In short, post￾hoc power has a one-to-one inverse relationship with corresponding p-values and thus cannot provide any additional information. It may even be misleading. Another option suggested by Mckenzie and Ozier (2019) is compute the minimum detectable size effect (MDE) using the following formula MDE= (zα/2+ z1-β)*SE, where SE is the standard error of the outcome. For the poverty headcount this comes to 4.5 percentage points. This magnitude is smaller than the envisaged reduction for this indicator at the beginning of the study as well as what is estimated at end-line. 25 This section is taken from the baseline report except with appropriate updates and changes. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 106 Sampling at baseline (Given that the end-line was not implemented as an impact evaluation, this information is provided for background only.) The baseline survey was conducted in woredas in USAID/Ethiopia’s ZOI and also in woredas not within the ZOI. By interviewing households at baseline and at end-line both inside and outside of the ZOI and by using a non-experimental impact estimator such as matching, it will be possible to undertake an impact evaluation that determines whether improvements in Feed the Future performance indicators in the ZOI can be attributed to the totality of Feed the Future activities. If these surveys collect information on who participates in the various Feed the Future interventions, it will also be possible to assess both the direct and spillover impacts of Feed the Future. The direct effects are estimated by comparing changes in households that take up Feed the Future interventions with matched households outside the ZOI who, given their characteristics, would have taken up the intervention had it been available. The spillover effects are estimated by comparing changes in households in the ZOI that did not take up Feed the Future interventions with matched households outside the ZOI who, given their characteristics, would not have taken up the intervention even if it had been available. We discuss below whether our sample design can detect other impacts. Determining sample size The size of the sample depends on a number of considerations. First, is the purpose of the survey to monitor Feed the Future performance indicators or is it to both monitor Feed the Future performance indicators and provide baseline information for impact evaluation? The survey is designed and conducted to achieve the latter. A note of clarification on indicator tracking is appropriate at this point. The RFA requests disaggregating indicators by household gender and age composition. Specifically, the incidence of poverty, pattern of per capita expenditure and prevalence of hunger (i.e., Indicators 1, 2, and 8) are to be disaggregated in this way. Similarly, Indicator 11 will be disaggregated by gender of children while indicator 9 will be disaggregated by gender of children as well as wealth quintiles of households. The sample size required to track indicators and detect impact at these levels of disaggregation would be rather large. Instead, it was agreed that the survey should be designed in such a way that key indicators are, as appropriate, disaggregated by household demographic and wealth characteristics and tracked, though without necessarily aspiring to causal impact evaluation. Obviously, impact at the household level will be assessed in the manner described in the evaluation design section above. The survey was designed and implemented accordingly. Second, sample size is affected by the desired level of statistical significance (the sample has to be sufficiently large to minimize the chance of detecting an effect that does not exist) and desired statistical power (the sample has to be sufficiently large to minimize the chance of not detecting an effect that does exist). Following standard practice, these were set at a target level of significance of 5 percent (two-tailed) and statistical power of 80 percent. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 107 Sample size also depends on the minimum level of impact the survey is desired to detect in the relevant indicator. For example, should the sample size be large enough to detect that the intervention has reduced poverty by 5 percentage points, by 10 percentage points or by 20 percentage points? These levels of impact, known as minimum detectable effect sizes, are inversely related to sample size. Smaller effect sizes require larger samples; conversely, larger effect sizes require smaller samples. The size of the sample also depends heavily on which Feed the Future indicator is being considered. This is important because required sample sizes are affected by the variability of the indicator. Where the indicator(s) is (are) characterized by high levels of variability, larger sample sizes are needed. It is also affected by what is called the design effect, loosely defined as the extent to which the indicator is correlated across households or individuals within a geographic locality. Higher correlations mean that larger samples are needed. In addition to all these considerations, the size of the sample depends on precisely what is meant by “Feed the Future impact.” Is Feed the Future impact defined in terms of a particular intervention or is it defined in terms of whether the totality of Feed the Future activities in the ZOI leads to changes in performance indicators that can be attributed to Feed the Future? Finally, we need to take into account the fact that over time some households will move, all members will disperse to other households or the household will choose not to continue to be interviewed. Based on our experiences with other longitudinal household surveys in rural Ethiopia, we assume that 10 percent of the sample will attrite between baseline and end-line. A central high-level objective of the Feed the Future initiative is poverty reduction. In light the broad outline of Feed the Future targets in Ethiopia, it is reasonable to opt for a sample size large enough to detect a 10-percentage point reduction in the incidence of poverty linked to Feed the Future.26 The sample size was thus chosen to be large enough to detect this level of impact. This minimum detectable size effect is equivalent to a 22 percent (0.22) standard deviation of poverty reduction in Feed the Future areas over and above that achieved in comparable but non-Feed the Future areas.27 The sample is divided into two-third treated (Feed the Future ZOI) and one-third control (non-Feed the Future ZOI) woredas. The sample is clustered at the woreda level. The aim is ensuring that by the end-line, there are on average 75 households interviewed per woreda, with these allocated across three Enumeration Area (EAs) each containing 25 households. We calculated the design effect as equaling 8.4. In summary: 26 The incidence of poverty measured by the head count ratio calculated using the PPP poverty line of $1.25 USD per day. Note also that in the Feed the Future’s guidance notes on target setting, it is stated that in Ethiopia, Feed the Future should reduce the prevalence of poverty from 39.0 to 27.3 percent over a 5-year period. 27 Calculations using Ethiopian Household Income and Expenditure surveys show that the standard deviation of poverty incidence is around 0.45 and so a 22 percent reduction in this is equivalent to a 10-percentage point reduction in poverty. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 108  Minimum detectable effect size – 10 percentage point reduction in the incidence of poverty linked to Feed the Future  Statistical significance – 5 percent  Statistical power – 80 percent  Design effect – 8.4  Enumeration Areas (EA) – 3 per woreda  Attrition – 10 percent with 75 households per woreda in the end-line survey Given these features and assumptions, 56 woredas in the Feed the Future ZOI and 28 woredas outside the ZOI are required. In the baseline, 84 households were selected for interview per woreda or 28 households per EA; given an assumed rate of attrition of 10 percent, this will mean that on average, at end-line, there will be 75 households interviewed in each woreda. Therefore, the baseline survey was planned to collect information from 4,704 households in the ZOI (56 woredas x 3 EAs per woreda x 28 households per EA) and 2,352 households outside the ZOI (28 woredas x 3 EAs per woreda x 28 households per EA) giving a total baseline sample of 7,056 households residing in 252 EAs (with each EA located in a corresponding kebele). Heterogeneity A number of sources of heterogeneity were considered in the design of the sample. First, the Feed the Future’s ZOI spans woredas with diverse agro-ecological potential. In line with this heterogeneity, the non-ZOI woredas were drawn from a set purposively defined to have characteristics similar to woredas found in the ZOI. Moreover, the woreda composition of the sample was made to reflect the distribution of Feed the Future-supported projects by using the percentage of Feed the Future’s ZOI (or woredas) each major Feed the Future project covers as a basis of its share in the sample (see Table A2.2 below). Second, households within a locality differ in terms of dimensions that may be relevant to the performance of Feed the Future-related investments. Two such dimensions can be specifically important – the gender and age of household heads. Accordingly, the household composition of the sample in each EA will be determined by the distribution of household types in the community as defined by the gender and age of household heads (see the discussion in the next paragraph for further detail). This is particularly relevant for the Women Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI). The EA-level sample is divided into female- and male-headed households, each group further divided into youth-headed and mature-headed households. Thus, the EA sample is divided into a total of 4 age-gender groups. The share of each in the sample is determined by the corresponding shares reported by CSA’s Population Census of 2007. Census 2007 data show the distribution of Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 109 household heads by age and gender reported in columns 2-3 of Table 1.2. Columns 4-5 of the same table report the composition of the sample households. Table A2.1: Household composition of the EA sample Share in the population of rural household heads – Census 2007 (%) Male Female Young (15-34 years of age) 29.6 (8) 5.4 (2) Mature (35 years of age or older) 48.9 (13) 16.1 (5) Source: Authors’ calculation using CSA data. Note: The numbers in brackets are implied (columns 2-3) number of sample households in an EA (with the total being a predetermined 28). Table A2.2: Feed the Future sample woredas, grouped by Feed the Future program Program Number of Sample woredas Total number of woredas in the program Share in the ZOI (%)* Share in the Feed the Future Sample (%)* Number of sample woredas in a program as a fraction of total in the program (%) AGP 48 111 74.5 85.7 43.2 PRIME 7 30 20.1 12.5 23.3 GRAD 6 16 10.4 11.1 37.5 AGP+GRAD 5 AGP+ENGINE 12 Total Number of FTF Sample Woredas 56 Total Number of Control Sample Woredas 28 Total Number of Sample Woredas 84 Both treatment and control woredas were randomly selected using proportions derived from population size and project coverage. The regional distribution of the planned sample is summarized in the next table. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 110 Table A2.3: Feed the Future sample households, planned by region Number of sample households Amhara Oromia SNNP Somali Tigray Total Initially planned to be interviewed 1848 2436 1680 420 672 7056 Actually interviewed 1848 2414 1677 400 672 7011 Notes: * Shares sum over 100% for two reasons. First, 8 woredas (or about 5%) are covered by more than one Feed the Future-supported program – five of these are in the sample. There are 149 woredas in the Feed the Future’s ZOI. Second, AGP and ENGINE woredas overlap, though all AGP woredas were covered by ENGINE at the time of the baseline – there are 12 AGP-ENGINE woredas in the sample. Note also that 11 AGP-LMD woredas are included under the AGP heading in this table. Selection of the sample Sample selection included three steps. The first step involved the systematic random selection of woredas from the Feed the Future project categories identified above with probability of selection proportional to size (i.e., combining project coverage and population size). Three EAs were subsequently selected from each woreda randomly with selection probability proportionate to size. In the third step, sample households were chosen from a freshly compiled complete listing of households in each selected using systematic random sampling. The selection probabilities combined the ratio of 28 households to the total number of households in the EA and the proportions of the four household types formed by the age and gender of the household head. The product of the inverse of the selection probabilities at the three stages form the sample weight of each household for the purpose of estimating the relevant indicators. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 111 A2.2 Poverty Prevalence and Consumption Expenditure Methods Data Source The Feed the Future baseline and end-line surveys conducted in 2013 and 2018 are the sources of data for the estimation of consumption expenditures and poverty levels. Data on household food and non-food expenditures as well as local prices were collected by these surveys. Measuring poverty and comparing poverty across groups Poverty Indices Since the work of Sen (1976) on the axiomatic approach to measurement of poverty, several indices of poverty have been developed. The most widely used poverty indices are the percentage of the poor (headcount index), the aggregate poverty gap (poverty gap index), and the distribution of income among the poor (poverty severity index). The poverty measure itself is a statistical function that translates the comparison of the indicator of household well-being and the chosen poverty line into one aggregate number for the population as a whole or a population subgroup. Many alternative measures exist, but the three measures described below are the ones most commonly used. Incidence of poverty (headcount index). This is the share of the population whose income or consumption is below the poverty line, that is, the share of the population that cannot afford to buy a basic basket of goods. Depth of poverty (poverty gap). This provides information regarding how far households are from the poverty line. This measure captures the mean aggregate income or consumption shortfall relative to the poverty line across the whole population. It is obtained by adding up all the shortfalls of the poor (assuming that the non-poor have a shortfall of zero) and dividing the total by the population. In other words, it estimates the total resources needed to bring all the poor to the level of the poverty line (divided by the number of individuals in the population). Poverty severity (squared poverty gap). This takes into account not only the distance separating the poor from the poverty line (the poverty gap), but also the inequality among the poor, that is, a higher weight is placed on those households further away from the poverty line. Method of aggregating poverty and hypothesis testing We used Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (1984) Pα class of poverty measures. Defining the per￾adult (per capita) consumption expenditure of household i by Yi, and ranking Yi, as: Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 112 12 1 ......... ........ , qq N YY Y Z Y + ≤ ≤ ≤< ≤ where Z is poverty line, N is the total population, and q is the number of poor. Consequently, we can classify an individual poor if the real per adult consumption expenditure is less than to Z (Y=Z). Once we classify an individual into poor and non-poor, we can aggregate poverty at national and sub-national levels using the Pα class of poverty measures given by 1 1 ) ; 0, for . q i i ZY P YZ NZ α α α =   − =   ≥<   ∑ When α=0, the corresponding poverty index is called the headcount index (P0). Hence P0 corresponds to the fraction of individuals falling below the poverty line. If α=1, the poverty index is called the poverty gap index (P1) and it measures the aggregate poverty deficit of the poor relative to the poverty line, where α=2 it measures the squared proportional shortfalls from the poverty line and is commonly known as an index of the severity of poverty. Comparing Poverty between Groups There are two ways of comparing poverty indices across groups or over time. The first way to compare poverty indices between, say, two groups (group 1 and group 2) is to conduct a statistical test or means separation test. If the poverty measures are estimated from unit record data (i.e., on the basis of sample observations), it is possible to test whether the observed differences in their values are statistically significant. The hypothesis test developed by Kakwani (1993) can be used to test whether poverty indices (Pα) differ significantly between groups and over time. The standard error of Pα is calculated using the following formula (Ravallion 1992): 2 () () , PP SE P n αα α − = where SE (.) is the standard error. Consequently, the standard error (SE) of the difference in poverty index between group 1 and group 2 (SE (Pα1 - Pα2), having a random sample n1 and n2, respectively, is given by 22 12 12 12 () , ss SE P P nn α α −=+ where s1 and s2 are the sample estimator of the variance of the asymptotic distribution of 1 1 22 α and α nPnP , Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 113 such that: 22 12 1 2 SE P P SE P SE P ( ) ( ( )) ( ( )) . α α −= + α α The test statistic (t) is given by: 12 12 () . () PP t SE P P α α α α − = − This is asymptotically normally distributed with zero mean and unit variance. In a large sample, if the calculated value of t (the test statistics) has an absolute value less than 1.96 (2.58), then the difference in the poverty indices between two groups or dates is not statistically significant at the 5 percent (1 percent) level, using a two-tail test. Data Preparation Currency Conversions using CPI and PPP The following steps were involved in converting the 2005 PPP international poverty line of $1.25 to one in Ethiopian Birr at 2013 and 2018 prices. Purchasing power parity conversion factors (PPP) and consumer price indices (CPI) are used for the purpose. Conversion: To make it comparable with the expenditure data collected in 2013 and 2018 in Ethiopia, the poverty line has to be converted into Ethiopian Birr in 2013 and 2018 prices. These required a number of inputs/steps. i. PPP Conversion factor – Initial: Converts PPP dollars into Ethiopian Birr in 2005 prices using the PPP conversion Factor for Ethiopia of 2.75; ii. PPP Conversion factor – Updates (2005-2011 and 2005-2018): The conversion factor is thus extrapolated by adjusting it for local inflation using CSA’s Consumer Price Index with 2005 as the base year. The following ratios are used: o 2013 CPI/2005 CPI = 3.96; o 2018 CPI/2005 CPI = 5.68; Poverty Thresholds Using these elements, the new poverty line for the Feed the Future baseline became Birr13.61 per adult equivalent per day in 2013 prices. Similarly, the end-line poverty line for the Feed the Future was Birr19.53 per adult equivalent per day in 2018 prices. Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 114 A2.3 Criteria for Achieving Adequacy for Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Indicators The table below presents the five Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture (WEAI) domains of empowerment, their corresponding empowerment indicators, the survey questions that are used to elicit the data required to establish adequacy for each empowerment indicator, and how adequacy criteria are defined for each empowerment indicator. For additional details refer to the Feed the Future Guide to Statistics. Dimension Indicator name Survey questions Aggregation of adequacy criteria Inadequacy criteria Production Input in productive decisions G2.02 A-C, F How much input did you have in making decisions about: food crop farming, cash crop farming, livestock raising, fish culture; G5.02 A-D To what extent do you feel you can make your own personal decisions regarding these aspects of household life if you want(ed) to: agriculture production, what inputs to buy, what types of crops to grow for agricultural production, when or who would take crops to market, livestock raising Must have at least some input into or can make own personal decisions in at least two decision-making areas Inadequate if individual participates BUT does not have at least some input in decisions; or she does not make the decisions nor feels she could. Resources Ownership of assets G3.02 A-N Who would you say owns most of the [ITEM]? Agricultural land, Large livestock, Small livestock, chicks etc.; Fish pond/equip; Farm equipment (non￾mechanized); Farm equip (mechanized); Nonfarm business equipment; House; Large durables; Small durables; Cell phone; Non￾agricultural land (any); Transport Must own at least one asset, but not only one small asset (chickens, non￾mechanized equipment, or small consumer durables) Inadequate if household does not own any asset or only owns one small asset, or if household owns the type of asset BUT she does not own most of it alone Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 115 Dimension Indicator name Survey questions Aggregation of adequacy criteria Inadequacy criteria Purchase, sale or transfer of assets G3.03-G3.05 A-G Who would you say can decide whether to sell, give away, rent/mortgage [ITEM] most of the time? G3.06 A-G Who contributes most to decisions regarding a new purchase of [ITEM]? Ag land; Large livestock, Small livestock; Chickens etc.; Fish pond; Farm equipment (non￾mechanized); Farm equipment (mechanized) Must be able to decide to sell, give away, or rent at least one asset, but not only chickens and non￾mechanized farming equipment Inadequate if household does not own any asset or only owns one small asset, or household owns the type of asset BUT she does not participate in the decisions (exchange or buy) about it Access to and decisions on credit G3.08-G3.09 A-E Who made the decision to borrow/what to do with money/item borrowed from [SOURCE]? Non-governmental organization (NGO); Informal lender; Formal lender (bank); Friends or relatives; ROSCA (savings/credit group) Must have made the decision to borrow or what to do with credit from at least one source Inadequate if household has no credit OR used a source of credit BUT she did not participate in ANY decisions about it Income Control over use of income G2.03 A-F How much input did you have in decisions on the use of income generated from: Food crop, Cash crop, Livestock, Nonfarm activities, Wage & salary, Fish culture; G5.02 E-G To what extent do you feel you can make your own personal decisions regarding these aspects of household life if you want(ed) to: Your own wage or salary employment? Minor household expenditures? Must have some input into decisions on income, but not only minor household expenditures Inadequate if participates in activity BUT she has no input or little input on decisions about income generated Feed the Future Ethiopia Zone of Influence Phase One End-line Assessment 116 Dimension Indicator name Survey questions Aggregation of adequacy criteria Inadequacy criteria Leadership Group member G4.05 A-K Are you a member of any: Agricultural / livestock/ fisheries producer/ market group; Water, forest users’, credit or microfinance group; Mutual help or insurance group (including burial societies); Trade and business association; Civic/charitable group; Local government; Religious group; Other women’s group; Other group. Must be an active member of at least one group Inadequate if not an active member of a group or if unaware of any group in the community or if no group in community Speaking in public G4.01 – G4.03 Do you feel comfortable speaking up in public: To help decide on infrastructure (like small wells, roads) to be built? To ensure proper payment of wages for public work or other similar programs? To protest the misbehavior of authorities or elected officials? Must feel comfortable speaking in at least one public setting Inadequate if not at all comfortable speaking in public Time Workload G6 Worked more than 10.5 hours in previous 24 hours. Total summed hours spent toward labor must be less than 10.5 Inadequate if works more than 10.5 hours a day Leisure G6.02 How would you rate your satisfaction with your available time for leisure activities like visiting neighbors, watching TV, listening to radio, seeing movies or doing sports? Must rate satisfaction level as at least five out of 10 Inadequate if not satisfied (<5) 1 Time poverty is defined as performing productive or domestic work for more than 10.5 hours in a 24-hour period