Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 1 Program for Emergency Seed Support (PESS) Federal Award Number - 720FDA20GR00095 Performance Baseline Data Report September 29, 2020 1. Prevailing Conditions The project areas are currently classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) but with indications that from October 2020 to January 2021, the food security situation will improve and the area will be classified as stressed (IPC Phase 2)1 . The project area is persistently food insecure due to factors such as environmental degradation, soil fertility problems and other socio-economic factors. The COVID-19 positive cases continue to increase, and this poses a serious challenge for the communities to attain food security. According to FEWSNET August 2020 report, the travel restrictions due to COVID-19 and declining economic activities have lowered migratory and local labor activities which consequently has decreased the cash income of poor households (HHs).2 Moreover, the movement of cross border agricultural laborers, who generally move to eastern Sudan, have been limited due to border closures. The same report forecasts that the border closures will continue from October to November 2020.3 This will result in a significant decline in income for poor HHs that rely on labor migration for their livelihoods. In-country restrictions have also disrupted domestic labor migration. All of these limitations have caused serious impact on the food security of the poor HHs. As of September 20, a total of 4,696 COVID-19 tests were conducted in all woredas of the zone. 161 people tested positive for the virus and, of that, 140 people have since recovered. The pandemic has limited the mobility of local people for labor selling and commodity trading. In addition to this, it has restricted social interactions among community members. 2. Methods and Data Sources A mixture of methods (both quantitative and qualitative) were employed to collect adequate, quality data. HH Survey: A HH survey was conducted in the eight targeted woredas. From the total of 28,743 direct beneficiary HHs, 400 randomly selected HHs (323 male headed and 77 female headed HHs) were interviewed using Open Data Kit tools. Fifty beneficiaries from each woreda were interviewed. The enumerators for this survey included university graduates, government and project staff who currently reside in the operational areas of the project. To triangulate and enrich the findings of the HH survey, a Participatory Learning and Action approach was undertaken to collect qualitative information through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), and Key Informants interviews (KIIs). Focus Group Discussion: One male and one female FGD were undertaken in each of the eight woredas through selecting one representative kebele from each. Semi-structured discussion checklists were used. Each focus group consisted of six to eight participants. While conducting the FGDs the facilitators used the necessary personal protective equipment (PPE) including facemasks and hand sanitizer. The facilitators and the discussants also remained physically distanced from one another to safeguard each other during the discussion. A total of 16 FGDs (2 in each woreda) were conducted in eight purposely selected kebeles and a total of 121 discussants (60 men and 61 1 Ethiopia Food Security Outlook August 2020 to January 2021, FEWS NET August 2020 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid. Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 2 women) participated from eight woredas. The FGDs with knowledgeable people were conducted with respective woreda and randomly selected kebele food security task force members. In total 35 (24 male and 11 female) people participated in the discussions. Key Informants Interviews: One on one key informant interviews were also carried out with respective woredas crop production experts. The total number of key informants interviewed was seven (all men). Secondary Document Review: Relevant food security and agricultural production government documents, such as food security assessment reports of the 2019/20 Meher production seasons and crop production periodic progress reports, were reviewed from each woreda and zone. 3. Location and Timing Both the HH survey and the qualitative assessments were conducted in all eight targeted PESS woredas in Waghimira Zone, Amhara Region. The woredas include Sekota Zuriya, Tsagbiji, Gazgibila, Abergele, Ziquala, Sehala, Sekota Zuria, and Dahana. The HH survey and the qualitative assessments were conducted from September 2-8, 2020. Orientation on the questionnaires and survey tools was given to survey coordinators and supervisors by phone. The survey coordinators in turn cascaded the training and the orientations to the respective supervisors and enumerators. Throughout the survey period the FH Addis survey team remotely provided the necessary technical backstopping and supervision. 4. Limitations Some of the operational kebeles were not accessible due to the high rainfall and associated heavy floods that destroyed the dirt roads and bridges that connect kebeles and even some woredas (for instance, the bridge that connects Sahila woreda with Ziquala woreda was broken during this period). On top of this, some of the kebeles of Abergelle woreda, which could normally be reached through the Tigray Region, were not accessible during the survey period due to travel restrictions by the Tigray Regional government amid the prevailing controversial election. The other limitation was the COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictions on the movement of people, including FH staff, from place to place. FHE’s Senior Leadership Team banned the movements of FHE Addis staff because of COVID-19 positive cases in Addis. The spread of the pandemic in the operational zone has also restricted gatherings of large numbers of community members. Due to these constraints, the survey covered 23 accessible kebeles out of the 83 kebeles targeted by seeds in the eight target woredas. Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 3 5. Findings Agriculture and Food Security Indicator Baseline Source of Information Target Sub-sector: Seed System Security Ind 1 Number of months of HH food self￾sufficiency as a result of seed system security programming 5 HH survey 7 Ind 2 Number of people directly benefiting from seed systems/agricultural input activities (measured in terms of sex and age) 0 Project records (Master Beneficiary List) Male: 74,211 and Female: 69,858 Ind 3 Percentage of HHs with access to sufficient seed to plant 0% HH survey 100% Ind 4 Increased production of major agricultural crops from seeds distributed to target HHs by 37% from the baseline as a result of the project 150,440 QT Post-harvest assessment result of Wag Himera Zone for 2019 cropping season 206,108.82 QT 6. Analysis 6.1 Changes to Target Based on the baseline data gathered for PESS, FH is proposing changes to three of its four indicators. For the first indicator “Number of months of HH food self-sufficiency as a result of seed system security programming,” FH is proposing to change the number of months from twelve to seven. FH anticipates that PESS will increase production of major agricultural crops from seeds distributed to targeted HHs by 37%. This will increase the baseline from 15,044MT to 20,610.882MT. Thus, the 37% production increase will increase the number of months with food self-sufficiency from five to seven, not twelve. For the second indicator “Number of people directly benefiting from seed systems/agricultural input activities,” FH is changing the cumulative target from 71,926 to 74,211 for males and from 73,087 to 69,858 for females. This adjustment in numbers is based off of the Master Beneficiary List and aligns the target with project implementation. Finally, for Indicator 3 “Percentage of HHs with access to sufficient seed to plant,” FH is proposing to change the number from 50% to 100%. PESS initially planned to cover 0.5 ha of individual HH’s arable land with adequate, quality seed. Though the average land holding Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 4 size for farmers is 0.75 ha, consensus was achieved with the local government to grant seed for the 0.5 ha of land. This is considered adequate in the emergency context thus increasing the target to 100%. 6.2 General Profile Total Number of HHs and Kebeles Covered by the Baseline HH Survey As clearly depicted in the below graph, a total of 400 randomly selected HH heads, 50 from each woreda, were interviewed in this survey. Sex of Respondents by Woreda As shown in the graph below, among the 400 randomly selected HHs, 81% of the respondents were male and 19% of them were female HH heads. The largest proportion (34%) of female respondents were interviewed in Dehana, whereas, the smallest proportion of female respondents (6%) were interviewed in Gaz Gibla woreda. Age of Respondents by Woreda The age of respondents ranged from 20 (Gaz Gibla) to 84 (Sekota town). The average age of respondents was 43. Most Vulnerable Respondent HHs in the Target Woredas As is clearly shown in Table 1 below, 54% of the respondents constitute the most vulnerable community members, namely female headed HHs (19%), people with disabilities (10%), elderly people (22%), and critically ill community members (9%). Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 5 Table 1. Total number of respondents who are most vulnerable by woreda S/N Name of Woredas People with disabilities Female Headed HH Elderly Critically ill Others Total # of most vulnerable respondents Remark # % # % # % # % # % # % 1 Abergelle 2 8% 12 50% 10 42% 0 0% 0 0% 24 46% 1 person with double vulnerabilities 2 Dehana 7 18% 17 45% 17 45% 9 24% 1 3% 38 76% 13 persons with multiple vulnerabilities 3 Gaz Gibla 5 22% 3 13% 7 30% 7 30% 5 22% 23 46% 4 persons with multiple vulnerabilities 4 Sahila 8 21% 14 36% 7 18% 5 13% 14 36% 39 78% 9 persons with multiple vulnerabilities 5 Sekota 6 25% 9 38% 16 67% 7 29% 0 0% 24 48% 14 persons with multiple vulnerabilities 6 Sekota Town 5 19% 4 15% 18 69% 0 0% 0 0% 26 52% 1 person with double vulnerabilities 7 Tsagbiji 4 17% 13 57% 5 22% 8 35% 0 0% 23 46% 7 persons with multiple vulnerabilities 8 Ziquala 2 11% 4 21% 6 32% 0 0% 10 53% 19 38% 3 persons with multiple vulnerabilities All Woredas Average 39 10% 76 19% 86 22% 36 9% 30 8% 215 54% 52 (13%) Note: To avoid double counting 52 cases with multiple vulnerabilities are deducted from the above calculation Average family size of respondents by sex in the survey woredas As depicted in Table 2 below, the family size of respondents range from 1 to 11, the average being 6. With regard to composition of sex, 50% were male and 50% were female. Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 6 Table 2. Average family size of respondents by sex in survey woredas S/N Name of Woredas Family Size Min Max Average Male Female 1 Abergelle 1 10 6.4 3.2 50.5% 3.2 49.5% 2 Dehana 1 9 4.9 2.1 43.3% 2.8 56.7% 3 Gaz Gibla 1 9 5.3 2.9 54.1% 2.4 45.9% 4 Sahila 2 10 6.1 3.2 53.1% 2.9 46.9% 5 Sekota 2 10 6.3 3.2 50.3% 3.1 49.7% 6 Sekota Town 2 10 6.6 3.3 50.6% 3.2 49.4% 7 Tsagbiji 2 10 6.0 3.0 50.0% 3.0 50.0% 8 Ziquala 2 11 6.1 2.9 47.5% 3.2 52.5% All Woredas Average 1.6 9.9 6.0 3.0 50.0% 3.0 50.0% 6.3 Major Findings Amount of Teff seed sown in 2019 cropping seasons in the project areas The survey result shows that on average, individual farmers have sown 15.1 kg of Teff seed in the previous season. This accounts for 51% of their annual Teff seed requirement. Table 3. Amount of Teff seed sown in the previous cropping season by Woreda S/N Name of Woredas Average amount of Teff seed sown last year (KG/HH) Average amount of Teff seed requirement (KG/HH) % from total required 1 Abergelle 22.1 29.9 74% 2 Dehana 12.2 31.9 38% 3 Gaz Gibla 9.6 15.1 64% 4 Sahila 24.0 50.3 48% 5 Sekota 9.9 24.1 41% 6 Sekota Town 14.1 28.4 50% 7 Tsagbiji 10.6 21.8 49% 8 Ziquala 18.3 33.2 55% All Woredas Average 15.1 29.3 51% Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 7 Amount of Wheat seed sown in the previous cropping seasons in the project areas The survey result shows that Wheat was not sown by all respondents in Sahila and most of the respondents in Abergele. On average individual farmers have sown 56.6 kg of Wheat seed in the previous season. This accounts to 60% of their annual Wheat seed requirement. Table 4. Amount of Wheat seed sown in the previous cropping season by Woreda S/N Name of Woredas Average amount of Wheat seed sown last year (KG/HH) Average amount of Wheat seed requirement (KG/HH) % from total required 1 Dehana 45.1 86.3 52% 2 Gaz Gibla 46.0 82.9 55% 3 Sekota 76.8 117.2 66% 4 Sekota Town 58.1 88.2 66% 5 Tsagbiji 62.2 109.7 57% 6 Ziquala 51.5 86.5 59% All Woredas Average 56.6 95.1 60% Amount of Teff and Wheat seed sown in the previous cropping seasons in the project areas The survey result shows that on average individual farmers have sown 69.1 kg of Teff and Wheat seeds in the previous season. This accounts to 57% of their annual Teff and Wheat seed requirements. Table 5. Amount of Teff and Wheat seed sown in the previous cropping season by Woreda S/N Name of Woredas Average amount of Teff and Wheat seed sown last year (KG/HH) Average amount of Teff and Wheat seed requirement (KG/HH) % from total required 1 Dehana 57.3 118.2 49% 2 Gaz Gibla 55.6 98.0 57% 3 Sekota 86.7 141.3 61% 4 Sekota Town 72.2 116.6 62% 5 Tsagbiji 72.8 131.5 55% 6 Ziquala 69.7 119.7 58% All Woredas Average 69.1 120.9 57% Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 8 Yield of crops produced in 2019 production season in the project areas The survey result reveals that on average farmers have harvested 2.2 quintals of Teff and 4.9 quintals of Wheat. The smallest amounts of Teff yield were obtained in Sekota and Tsagbiji woredas that amounts to only 1.2 and 1.4 qt/HH respectively. On the other hand, the largest yield of Teff were obtained in Abergele and Sahila woredas that amounts to 3.2 and 3 qt/HH respectively. It is also found that Wheat is not the major crop grown in Abergele and Sahila woredas. Conversely, the largest yield of Wheat is produced in Sekota Zuriya and Dehana woredas with 6.7 and 6.2 qnt/HH respectively. Months of food and scarcity in the project areas The survey result reveals that 91% of respondents say that they experienced seven months of food scarcity from March to September. 26% of respondents in Abergele, followed by 18% of respondents in Gaz Gibla and Tsagbiji didn’t acknowledge the existence of months with food scarcity. Conversely, all respondents in Ziquala, Sahila and Sekota town indicated that there are months of food scarcity. Number of months of food self-sufficiency in the survey areas As shown in the graph below the average number of months of food self-sufficiency in the survey area is five. It also found that respondents in Sahila and Abergelle woredas said that there are only three months with food self￾sufficiency, whereas, respondents in Dehana and Tsagbiji woredas indicated that the number of months with food self-sufficiency is seven. Number of respondents who rate months of food self-sufficiency in the survey areas As shown in the table below the five months from October through February are rated as months of food self-sufficiency by most respondents in the survey area. This period is generally characterized as the harvest time of the main rainy season. On the other hand, the period between March to September is identified by most of respondents in the survey area as the period of food scarcity. Performance Baseline Data Report - Award Number 720FDA20GR00095 9 Table 6. Number of respondents who rate months of food self-sufficiency in the survey areas S/N Name of Woredas # of respondents who indicated months of food self sufficiency Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sum 1 Abergelle 0 2 4 6 12 20 33 33 29 7 1 0 147 2 Dehana 43 43 37 26 23 15 10 9 30 36 36 35 343 3 Gaz Gibla 4 4 4 8 11 25 35 39 35 16 5 3 189 4 Sahila 24 12 5 4 1 1 0 1 10 22 27 20 127 5 Sekota 37 36 29 20 13 10 7 3 20 31 33 32 271 6 Sekota Town 37 31 25 18 13 11 6 5 17 46 50 49 308 7 Tsagbiji 39 39 39 39 35 26 13 4 5 26 38 39 342 8 Ziquala 27 20 20 18 17 12 6 3 21 27 30 30 231 # of respondents who identified months of FSS 211 187 163 139 125 120 110 97 167 211 220 208 1958 % of respondents who identified months of FSS 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 9% 11% 11% 11% Table 7. Anticipated Yield and Months of FSS in 2020 Cropping Season S/N Name of Woredas Teff Wheat Teff and Wheat Anticipated months of FSS 1 Abergelle 17061.4 0.0 17061.4 October, November, December, January, 2 Dahna 17 February, March, April ,061.4 23,331.1 40,392.5 3 Gaz Gibla 12,770.3 12,753.7 25.524.0 4 Sahila 22,393.5 0.0 22,393.5 5 Sekota 25,176.3 12,267.6 37,443.9 6 Sekota Town 51,32.2 2,533.0 7,665.2 7 Tsagbich 15,238.4 18,275.4 33,513.8 8 Ziquala 22,114.6 0.0 22,114.6 Total 13,6948.0 69,160.9 20,6108.8