SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 1 (Program Period: October 1, 2014 September 30, 2017) BASELINE SURVEY REPORT (FINAL) Prepared By: AFRICAN RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CONSULTANTS LTD (AFREDEC) General Mathenge Drive, Off Parklands Ring Road P.O Box 32499- 00600, Nairobi afredecconsultants@gmail.com; info@afredec.com www.afredec.com FEBRUARY, 2016 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 i LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CEED Center for Entrepreneurship and Executive Development DQA Data Quality Assurance FAD Food Assistance Division FAIS Food Aid Information System FAS Foreign Agricultural Service FFPr Food for Progress FTF Feed the Future GOT Government of Tanzania M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MT Metric Tones PIRS Performance Indicator Reference Sheet PMP Performance Monitoring Plan PTT Performance Tracking Table RF Results Framework SEAF Small Enterprise Assistance Funds SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises SO Strategic Objective TA Technical Assistance TAHA Tanzania Horticulture Association TOR Terms of Reference TOR Terms of Reference USD United States Dollar USDA United States Department of Agriculture SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................ i TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................................................ vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................ vii 1 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................1-1 1.1 About the KASI Agriventures Program..................................................................................1-1 1.2 Objectives of the KASI Agriventures Program .....................................................................1-1 1.3 Program Activities and Outcomes...........................................................................................1-2 1.4 Target Value Chains....................................................................................................................1-2 1.5 Target Beneficiaries and Partners.............................................................................................1-2 2 METHODOLOGIES AND APPROACHES FOR THE BASELINE SURVEY....2-1 2.1 Background....................................................................................................................................2-1 2.2 Objectives of the Baseline Survey ............................................................................................2-1 2.3 Baseline Survey Design ...............................................................................................................2-1 2.3.1 Baseline Survey Team.........................................................................................................2-1 2.3.2 Sampling and Sample size ...................................................................................................2-2 2.3.3 Training and Pre-testing .....................................................................................................2-4 2.3.4 Data Collection Approaches.............................................................................................2-4 2.3.5 Data Entry and Analysis......................................................................................................2-6 2.3.6 Reporting ...............................................................................................................................2-6 2.4 Limitations for the Baseline Survey..........................................................................................2-6 3 RESULTS AND FINDINGS....................................................................................3-1 3.1 Findings on Agricultural Production and Processing............................................................3-1 3.1.1 Agricultural Production by Primary Producers.............................................................3-1 3.1.2 Quantity and Value of Products Marketed by Producers...........................................3-8 3.1.3 Post Production Processing by SMEs............................................................................3-13 3.1.4 Marketing amongst SMEs.................................................................................................3-18 3.2 Supply and Demand of Financial Services.............................................................................3-22 3.2.1 Supply of Financial Services .............................................................................................3-22 3.2.2 Demand for Financial Services amongst Producers...................................................3-26 3.2.3 Demand for Financial Services amongst SMEs............................................................3-30 3.3 Access to Training and Capacity Building.............................................................................3-35 3.3.1 Access to Trainings amongst Producers ......................................................................3-35 3.3.2 Access to Capacity Building amongst SMEs.................................................................3-38 3.3.3 Capacity Building for Financial Institutions ..................................................................3-41 3.4 Baseline Values for Program Indicators................................................................................3-42 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................4-1 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 iii 4.1 Conclusions...................................................................................................................................4-1 4.1.1 Conclusions on Agricultural Production and Marketing.............................................4-1 4.1.2 Conclusions on Post-Production Processing and Marketing .....................................4-1 4.1.3 Conclusions of Financial Services.....................................................................................4-2 4.1.4 Conclusions on Capacity Building Services....................................................................4-3 4.2 Recommendations .......................................................................................................................4-4 5 ANNEXES ................................................................................................................5-1 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 iv LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Baseline Survey Team Composition .....................................................................................2-1 Table 2-2: Sample Size .................................................................................................................................2-3 Table 2-3: Adjusted and Achieved Sample Sizes....................................................................................2-4 Table 2-4: Team Organization and Sample Allocations.......................................................................2-5 Table 3-1: Major Produced Fruits Vegetables and Spices....................................................................3-1 Table 3-2: Average Volumes of Major Produced Fruits, Vegetables and Spices............................3-2 Table 3-3: Average Number of Poultry Stocks......................................................................................3-3 Table 3-4: Frequency of Purchasing Poultry Feeds...............................................................................3-4 Table 3-5: Average Monthly Quantity and Value of Poultry Feeds Purchased...............................3-5 Table 3-6: Main Feed Bought/Produced by Farmers.............................................................................3-5 Table 3-7: Average Monthly/Annual Quantities and Value of Feed Purchased by Type ..............3-6 Table 3-8: Monthly Labor Size and Cost Amongst Producers...........................................................3-7 Table 3-9: Average Value of Commodities Marketed by Fruit, Vegetables and Spices producers ......................................................................................................................................................3-8 Table 3-10: Average Annual Incomes for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Producers......................3-8 Table 3-11: Annual Average Revenue from Poultry Product Sales by Product Type ...................3-9 Table 3-12: Average Annual Incomes for Poultry Producers...........................................................3-10 Table 3-13: Number of Producers with Formal Or Informal Contracts by Product..................3-11 Table 3-14: Volumes and Values of Fruits and Vegetables Sold on Contract...............................3-12 Table 3-15: Number of Farmers with Formal or Informal Contracts Per Poultry Products....3-12 Table 3-16: Commodities Sold on Contracts by Poultry Producers..............................................3-12 Table 3-17: Average Monthly Quantities and Value of Raw Materials Purchased by Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Processors......................................................................................3-14 Table 3-18: Annual Average Quantities and Values for Raw Materials Purchased by Processors3- 14 Table 3-19: Major Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Products Processed............................................3-16 Table 3-20: Average Monthly Quantities and Value of Raw Materials Used by Poultry Feed Manufacturers.........................................................................................................................3-17 Table 3-21: Average Monthly Poultry Raw Materials Used in Poultry Feeds Manufacturing ....3-17 Table 3-22: Average Poultry Feed Production Capacities.................................................................3-18 Table 3-23: Annual Quantity and Value of Commodities Sold by SMEs Involved in Fruits, Vegetables and Spice Processing.........................................................................................3-19 Table 3-24: Average Monthly Quantities and Value of Poultry Feeds Sold by Poultry Feed Manufacturers.........................................................................................................................3-19 Table 3-25: Annual Quantities and Value of Feeds Sold by SMEs Involved in Poultry Feed Manufacturing..........................................................................................................................3-20 Table 3-26: Category of Financial Institutions Sampled .....................................................................3-22 Table 3-27: Percentage and Value of Agricultural Portfolios............................................................3-23 Table 3-28: Major Agribusiness Loan Clients, Loan Products and Value of Loans in the Last One Year for Financial Institutions..............................................................................................3-24 Table 3-29: Lease financing to Agribusiness clients ............................................................................3-25 Table 3-30: Loan terms and conditions for vegetable and fruits producers.................................3-30 Table 3-31: Value of Start-up Capital in USD ......................................................................................3-30 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 v Table 3-32: Average Loan Sizes Borrowed by SMEs..........................................................................3-32 Table 3-33: Trainings Demanded and Offered to Producers...........................................................3-36 Table 3-34: Main Challenges in Accessing Training for Producers..................................................3-38 Table 3-35: Trainings Preferred and Offered to SMEs.......................................................................3-39 Table 3-36: Current Training offered to Financial Institutions Employees and Preferred Training Needs by Financial Institutions............................................................................................3-42 Table 3-37: Baseline Values for Program Indicators.............................................................................3-1 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1: Data collecting approach........................................................................................................2-5 Figure 3-1: Category of poultry reared ...................................................................................................3-3 Figure 3-2: Sources of Poultry Feeds .......................................................................................................3-4 Figure 3-3: Challenges Faced by Poultry Farmers in Accessing Poultry Feeds...............................3-6 Figure 3-4: Challenges with Labor amongst Producers .......................................................................3-7 Figure 3-5: Poultry Products Sold by Sampled Poultry Farmers........................................................3-9 Figure 3-6: Market Outlets for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Producers......................................3-10 Figure 3-7: Market Outlets for Poultry Products................................................................................3-11 Figure 3-8: Type of Processors................................................................................................................3-13 Figure 3-9: Major Raw Materials Procured by Fruits, Vegetables/Spices Processors..................3-15 Figure 3-10: Sources of Raw Materials for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Processors................3-15 Figure 3-11: Average Daily Poultry Feed Processing Production Capacities and Capacity Utilization (MT) ......................................................................................................................3-16 Figure 3-13: Major Market Outlets for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Processors......................3-20 Figure 3-14: Major Market Outlets for Poultry Feed Manufactures...............................................3-21 Figure 3-15: Marketing Challenges for SMEs........................................................................................3-22 Figure 3-16: Major Agricultural Financing Products............................................................................3-23 Figure 3-17: Average Agricultural Portfolio at Risk............................................................................3-24 Figure 3-18: Major Agricultural Value Chains Financed by Non-bank Financial Institutions.....3-25 Figure 3-19: Challenges/Risks in Providing Agribusiness Financing .................................................3-26 Figure 3-20: Sources of Start-up Capital for Agricultural Producers..............................................3-27 Figure 3-21: Major Financial needs for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Producers.........................3-27 Figure 3-22: Major Financial Needs for Poultry Producers...............................................................3-28 Figure 3-23: Rates of Borrowing amongst Producers........................................................................3-29 Figure 3-24: Sources of Loans for Poultry Farmers and Fruits & vegetables/Spices Farmers...3-29 Figure 3-25: Sources of Start-up Capital amongst SMEs....................................................................3-31 Figure 3-26: Access to Loans amongst SMEs........................................................................................3-31 Figure 3-27: Sources of Loans for SMEs................................................................................................3-32 Figure 3-28: Financial Needs for SMEs...................................................................................................3-33 Figure 3-29: Usage of Loans/Borrowed Funds amongst SMEs.........................................................3-34 Figure 3-30: Access to Leasing Services................................................................................................3-34 Figure 3-31: Challenges in Accessing Finances by SMEs ....................................................................3-35 Figure 3-32: Access to Training amongst Producers..........................................................................3-36 Figure 3-33: Major Providers of Training and Extension Services to Producers .........................3-37 Figure 3-34: Frequency of contact with Training and Extension Service Providers Amongst Producers.................................................................................................................................3-37 Figure 3-35: Access to Training amongst SME Employees................................................................3-38 Figure 3-36: Major Providers of Training Services to SMEs..............................................................3-40 Figure 3-37: Frequency of Training amongst SMEs.............................................................................3-40 Figure 3-38: Main Challenges in Accessing Training for Fruits & Vegetables/Spices and Poultry Feed Manufacturers...............................................................................................................3-41 Figure 3-39: Access to Training amongst Financial Institutions Employees...................................3-41 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document comprises a baseline survey report for the KASI Agriventures program in Tanzania. The three year program is being implemented by Small Enterprises Assistance Funds (SEAF) and is funded by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Overall, the KASI Agriventures program will contribute towards achievement of USDA’s Strategic Objective 1 which is Increased Agricultural Productivity and Strategic Objective 2 which is Expanded Trade of Agricultural Products (into Domestic, Regional, and International Markets). The major goal of the KASI Agriventures program is therefore to strengthen the agricultural sector in Tanzania by adding value to agribusiness investees and their supply chain of small holder farmers in order to increase agricultural productivity and expand the trade of agricultural products. The objectives of this baseline survey were; (1) to establish the baseline values for the program indicators. The baseline was designed to collect the data needed to track indicators in the program’s Performance Monitoring Plan (PMP) over the life of the program. (2) To collect the necessary data for establishing or validating the indicator targets described in the PMP; and (3) to capture any additional data that should be tracked during the course of the program period. Respondents for the baseline survey were selected using stratified and proportionate random sampling methods. The strata (and sub-strata) were based on the categories (and sub￾categories) of key KASI Agriventures target beneficiaries and partners. A total of 323 respondents were interviewed including 134 individual poultry keepers, 137 fruits, vegetables or spices producers, 26 SMEs involved in manufacturing poultry feeds and 10 SMEs involved in processing fruits as well as 12 non-bank financial institutions. This was despite a number of limitations which meant that some target respondents were not achieved. Total annual volumes of fruits, vegetables and spices sold by sampled respondents in the last one year averaged 10.3 MT for fruits, 25.6 MT for vegetables and 1.3 MT of spices. Fruits, vegetables and spice producers marketed approximately sold approximately 10.3 tons of fruits, 25.6 tons of vegetables and 1.3 tons of spices. Within the last one year, poultry producers purchased an average of 23.3 tons of feeds valued at USD.11,486. In return, poultry producers earned an average of USD.13,148. Producers were however, not organized for marketing purposes and are therefore unable to access high end markets. This is indicated by the choice of local market outlets as well as the low quantities marketed through contractual arrangements with buyers. With better organized marketing, producers are more likely to access more formalized (and often more lucrative) markets. This may be a strategy that the KASI Agriventures can use to improve access to new markets; which is one of the program indicators. SMEs procured raw materials from among others small-scale producers, aggregators and middlemen. On average, each SME involved in processing of fruits purchased an average of 1,404 tons of raw materials per year valued at USD.72,336 annually. Fruits, vegetables and SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 viii spices processors converted fruits into juices, pulp, canned or dried products; vegetables into pastes and canned products while spices were dried and ground into powders. Within the last year, each of the fruits, vegetables and spice processors sold an average of 481 tons of fruits and fruit products valued at USD 342,594, 268 tons of vegetable products valued at USD 246,900 and 1.4 tons of spices valued at approximately USD 30,080. On the other hand, each SME involved in poultry feed manufacturing procured 236 tons of raw materials mainly from aggregators, wholesalers and middlemen. These were used to produce an average of 85.7 tons of assorted feeds per month. Each poultry feed manufacturer sold an average of 1,008 tons of feed valued at USD. 434, 316. SMEs mainly sold their products in the domestic market (100% for poultry feed manufactures and 79% for fruits, vegetables and spices processors). Distributors were a major outlet for the SMEs products. These can be used by the KASI Agriventures program to improve targeting and linkages. For example ensuring that they distribute only high quality poultry feeds or to specific target consumers; particularly since SMEs involved in poultry feed manufacturing noted that competition with low quality feeds is a major challenge. Non- bank financial institutions (MFIs, Community banks and leasing companies) in Tanzania, offered various products including those targeted by the KASI Agriventures program i.e term loans and leasing. While term loans were common, leasing products were limited to a few organizations. On average, agricultural portfolios as a percentage of the total portfolios were approximately 22.3% which is comparable to the average of 25% I Tanzania. However, suppliers still considered agricultural lending to be relatively risky with a total of 16% of the agricultural portfolio being at risk. Out of an average of 743 loan clients per institution, non-bank financial institutions, offered a higher number of loans to associations/co-operatives or groups (477) within the last year and lowest number to corporate clients (6). The high number of group based loans is consistent with the group based lending approaches which are preferred by non-bank financial institutions. While the low number of corporate clients may indicate a low preference to lend to corporate clients, it may also suggest that non-bank financial institutions do not have enough funds to lend to corporate clients; who ordinarily require more funding compared to individuals or groups. KASI Agriventures program targets fruits, vegetables and spices as well as poultry value chains. But as expected, the baseline survey noted that non-bank financial institutions mostly financed cereals, vegetables and pulses in that order. This is because cereals and pulses are also the major categories of value chains that are produced by majority of Tanzanians. However, fruits and vegetables/spices as well as poultry provide major opportunities for financing as they are considered commercial products. Despite producers having a number of financial needs, demand for borrowings was low as only 31% of the poultry keepers and 14% of the fruits, vegetables and spices producers had ever borrowed loans. These low rates of borrowing were however, associated with unfavorable terms of conditions set by financial institutions. Demand for loans amongst SMEs was higher with majority borrowing to fund raw materials supplies/stocks as well as product distribution and marketing costs. On average, SMEs involved in fruits, vegetables and spices borrowed loans valued at USD. 10,230 while those involved in manufacturing of poultry feeds borrowed an SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY, 2016 ix average of USD. 19,210. Rates of borrowing for fruits, vegetables and spices processors was however lower at only 30% compared to 77% for SMEs engaging in poultry feed manufacturing. Supply and demand of lease financing products was very low for both producers and SMEs as on average sampled organizations had offered 10 leases within the last one year. Only 10% of fruits, vegetables and spices processors and 12% of poultry feed manufacturers had ever accessed leasing products. The major assets financed included plant and machinery, industrial and farm equipments as well as vehicles. This presents a gap which the KASI Agriventures program can fill in by facilitating increased access to leasing services. With regard to capacity building, access to training and extension services amongst producers was low. Only 27 % and 32% of fruits, vegetables and spices producers and poultry producers respectively, had accessed training and extension services in the last one year. This was mainly associated with inadequate supply of providers. The major training and extension providers to producers were government extension staff, private extension staff and NGOs but contact with the trainings and extension service providers was rather infrequent with majority of the producers interacting with providers on monthly basis or longer intervals. In comparison, access to capacity building amongst SMEs within the last one year was relatively high at 80% for fruits, vegetables and spices processors and 63% for poultry feed manufacturers. Improved processing technologies, product quality standards and marketing were the main training offered to staff of vegetables, fruits and spices processors. For poultry feed manufacturers, feed manufacturing technologies and product quality standards management were the main training modules offered. major training service providers to SMEs were private companies/individuals and NGOs/donor programs. This findings suggests that it will be important for CEED to liaise with companies, individual experts and NGOs and donor programs that are involved in provide training to SMEs. The baseline survey makes a number of recommendations key amongst them the following: (1) re-looking into the target value chains as some target value chains were not common amongst producers. this will ensure that the program is able to meet its targets. In absence of this, the program will have to review its targets on the production volumes and values for target value chains; (2) working with program partners such as TAHA and TAFMA to organize target producers into groups. This will ease the processes of linkages as well as facilitate contractual arrangements and trainings; (3) With regard to provision of financial services the program may need to consider inclusion of commercial banks since they have a wider outreach and were used as preferred sources of borrowing by both producers and SMEs. Alternatively, the KASI Agriventures program will need to increase the number of non-bank financial institutions involved in the program with special considerations to outreach within the target regions; (4) With regard to program performance indicators, the baseline survey recommends that some of the program targets may need to be revised or redistributed. Recommendations for each of the indicators are contained in Table 3.31 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 1-1 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 About the KASI Agriventures Program This document comprises a baseline survey report for KASI Agriventures, a three-year program in Tanzania implemented by the Small Enterprise Assistance Funds (SEAF). Through KASI Agriventures, SEAF will provide financing to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in the agricultural sector of Tanzania. The program will invest in agribusinesses in three key sectors including (i) Poultry Feed Production, (ii) Fruit/Vegetable/Spice Processing, and (iii) SME Lending. The program will also establish a Center for Entrepreneurship and Executive Development (CEED), through which SEAF will provide technical assistance and training to agribusiness SMEs, including investees. For the Fruit/Vegetable/Spice processor(s), SEAF will establish a mentorship program with international partners to support investees in accessing international markets. SEAF will also provide specific technical assistance as needed to the suppliers and/or customers of these agribusiness SMEs. The project is being funded by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) through its Food for Progress Program. This baseline survey was conducted as per the Terms of Reference (TOR) attached as Annex 1. 1.2 Objectives of the KASI Agriventures Program Overall, the KASI Agriventures program will contribute towards achievement of USDA’s Strategic Objective 1 which is Increased Agricultural Productivity and Strategic Objective 2 which is Expanded Trade of Agricultural Products (into Domestic, Regional, and International Markets). The major goal of the KASI Agriventures program is therefore "to strengthen the agricultural sector in Tanzania by adding value to agribusiness investees and their supply chain of small holder farmers in order to increase agricultural productivity and expand the trade of agricultural products". The specific objectives of the KASI Agriventures program are as follows: • To help investees’ (agricultural SMEs) access new markets and increase revenues, which in turn will create jobs in their communities; • To help smallholder farmers providing raw inputs to fruit/vegetable/spice processing investee(s) to benefit from increased incomes as well as knowledge transfer and technological improvements through SEAF and its partners; and • To help smallholder and medium-sized farmers (customers of the investee(s) producing animal feeds) to benefit from access to higher quality feed products, thereby making a significant impact on the value chain in Tanzania. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 1-2 1.3 Program Activities and Outcomes Specifically, KASI Agriventures will be involved in the following activities: i. Develop poultry feed processing capacity through an investment into small and medium-sized poultry feed producer; ii. Develop horticultural processing capacity through an investment into a small and medium-sized fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processing facility; iii. Enhance agricultural finance using a lease-to-own lending mechanism through an investment in a finance company that provides equipment leasing finance or working capital to agribusiness SMEs, to increase affordability of farm equipment and to increase availability of working capital loans to farmers; iv. Establish a Center for Entrepreneurship and Executive Development (CEED) to provide technical assistance to poultry feed producers, fruit/vegetable/spice processors, and other agribusiness SMEs as well as their suppliers and/or customers; v. Expand trade of agricultural products through a mentorship program between international corporations and fruit/vegetable/spice processor(s), aimed at bringing the fruit/vegetable/spice processor(s) products up to international standards; and thus increase access to international markets. The program outcomes include: • Increased agricultural productivity; • Increased leverage of private sector resources in agricultural production and post￾harvest processing; • Increased capacity and knowledge of smallholder farmers involved in agricultural production; • Increased use of improved agricultural technologies and techniques; • Increased availability of improved inputs; • Increased use of financial services; • Increased quality of post-production agricultural products; and • Expanded trade of agricultural products. 1.4 Target Value Chains The KASI Agriventures program will target fruits, vegetables and spices value chains as well as the poultry value chain. Further, through an investment in an SME lending vehicle, KASI Agriventures may also be able to support farmers and agribusiness entrepreneurs in other agricultural value chains. 1.5 Target Beneficiaries and Partners KASI Agriventures program will directly benefit an estimated 40 agribusiness SMEs, 18,040 smallholder farmers, and indirectly benefit 90,200 members of farming families in Tanzania1 . 1 These numbers are subject to change based upon baseline findings. Indirect beneficiaries are based on the assumption that each household has an average membership of 5. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 1-3 The target beneficiaries for the KASI Agriventures program will include already existing SMEs engaged in poultry feed manufacturing as well as those engaging in processing of fruits, vegetables and/or spices for export. Beneficiaries of the program will also include poultry producers (customers of feed manufacturers) as well as fruits, vegetables and spice producers (suppliers to fruit, vegetables/spices processors). In order to offer equipment leasing finance, short-term working capital, and short term loans to agribusiness SMEs, KASI will target non￾bank financial institutions (NBFIs), community banks and leasing companies. The program's key partners will include the Tanzanian Horticultural Association (TAHA), Tanzania Feed Manufacturers Association (TAFMA), Cargill Animal Nutrition and Tesco PLC. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 2-1 2 METHODOLOGIES AND APPROACHES FOR THE BASELINE SURVEY 2.1 Background The baseline survey for the KASI Agriventures program was conducted in the months of November and December, 2015. This chapter outlines the approach and methodologies that were used in conducting the baseline survey for the KASI Agriventures program in Tanzania. 2.2 Objectives of the Baseline Survey The objectives of the baseline survey were as follows: • To establish the baseline values for the program indicators. The baseline was designed to collect the data needed to track indicators in the program’s Performance Monitoring Plan (PMP) over the life of the program; • To collect the necessary data for establishing or validating the indicator targets described in the PMP; and • To capture any additional data that should be tracked during the course of the program period. 2.3 Baseline Survey Design The survey design involved use of semi-structured questionnaires to collect data from a sample of target respondents. These included SMEs involved in manufacturing poultry feeds, SMEs involved in processing fruits/vegetables/spices; smallholder farmers involved in fruits/vegetables/spices production; smallholder farmers involved in poultry keeping; and target financial institutions. Data was also collected from potential program partners using key informant interview guides. 2.3.1 Baseline Survey Team The baseline survey team comprised of 5 key experts and 17 researchers. The following key AFREDEC team members executed the baseline survey (Table 2-1). Table 2-1: Baseline Survey Team Composition No Team Name Nationality Position 1 Key Experts/ Field Team Leaders Joel Maina Kenyan Project Director/Agricultural Economist 2 Samuel Kibuchi Kenyan Socio-Economist 3 Timothy Waweru Kenyan Overall team leader/ M&E Expert 4 Basili Liheta Tanzanian Agricultural Economist/Team leader Kilimanjaro & Arusha 5 Deo Seimu Tanzanian M& E Expert/Team Leader Dar es SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 2-2 No Team Name Nationality Position Salaam 6 Morogoro & Pwani Grace M. Thomas Tanzanian Researcher 7 Godwin Majahasi Tanzanian Researcher 8 Hamisi Suleiman Tanzanian Researcher 9 Iringa & Mbeya Joanita Jonathan Tanzanian Researcher 10 Albert Godson Tanzanian Researcher 11 Amos Kashaija Tanzanian Researcher 12 Kilimanjaro & Arusha Gaudence Kapinga Tanzanian Researcher 13 Pius Kirenga Tanzanian Researcher 14 Nelson Kileo Tanzanian Researcher 15 Brown Mamaya Tanzanian Researcher 16 Dar Es Salaam Consensa Mauki Tanzanian Researcher 17 Edward Chapa Tanzanian Researcher 18 Rugazia Nyombi Tanzanian Researcher 19 Frank Cyprian Tanzanian Researcher 20 Pelesia Lyimo Tanzanian Researcher 21 Angel Mwanya Tanzanian Researcher 22 Nelson Lema Tanzanian Researcher 2.3.2 Sampling and Sample size Respondents for the baseline survey were selected using stratified and proportionate random sampling methods. The strata (and sub-strata) were based on the categories (and sub￾categories) of key KASI Agriventures target beneficiaries and partners. First, a sampling frame was developed following mapping and listing of key program target beneficiaries operating in the target regions in Tanzania2 . This was based on the information obtained from document reviews and engaging with key stakeholders such as the Tanzania Horticultural Association (TAHA) and Tanzania Feed Manufacturers Association (TAFMA). The illustrative sampling frame is attached in Annex 2. Target respondents in each strata (and sub-strata) were then selected randomly from the sampling frame. A total sample size of 252 respondents was initially targeted3 . The initial targeted respondents included 50% of sampling frame for non-banking financial institutions and 30% of poultry feed manufacturers, and fruits, vegetables, spices processors (SMEs). The sample size for the individual poultry farmers and individual fruit, vegetable and spices farmers (producers) was determined using Cochran (1963:75) formula for calculating a representative sample for proportions where the population is large. The formula yielded a sample of 100 respondents in each category of producers. In each of the organizations/institutions selected, the key decision makers were targeted for interviews. 2 Target regions for the KASI Agriventures program include, Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Morogoro, the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) as well as Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. 3 As per the program M&E plan SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 2-3 Table 2-2 below illustrates the initially proposed sample sizes for the various categories of respondents. Table 2-2: Sample Size Category of respondents (Strata) Sub-categories(Sub￾strata) Data collection tools Proposed sampling frame Total targeted sample size Non- Bank Financial institutions involved in agribusiness SME lending, equipment leasing, working capital and term loans Semi-structured questionnaires 23 11 SMEs involved in poultry feed production Semi-structured questionnaires 33 11 SMEs involved in fruit, vegetable and spices processing Semi-structured questionnaires 67 22 Individual poultry farmers (producers) Semi-structured questionnaires 8,0004 100* Individual fruit, vegetable and spices farmers (producers) Semi-structured questionnaires 10,0005 100* Other stakeholders agreed upon with SEAF such as Government officials, other relevant USG funded program s/projects (e.g. TAPP), Apex organizations (e.g. TAHA) -Key Tanzania Horticultural Association (TAHA) Key informant interview (KII) guides/checklists (Qualitative research method). 1 1 Tanzania Agriculture Productivity Program (TAPP) 1 1 Tanzania Private Sector Foundation (TPSF) Cluster Competitiveness Program 1 1 Tanzania Animal Feeds Manufacturers Association (TAFMA) 1 1 Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) 1 1 Ministry of Trade and Industry 1 1 Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Co-operatives 1 1 Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries 1 1 Total 18,131 252 *Determined by Cochran (1963:75) formula However, before the actual data collection exercise, the sampling frame was adjusted after confirming location of the organizations to be within the target regions. Additionally, a 30% margin of the target respondents was added to the sample size for each stratum to compensate for any non-responses. The resultant sample size and the actual responses is presented in Table 2-3 below. 4 Based on program individual beneficiaries in the poultry value chain 5 Based on the program individual beneficiaries involved in fruits, vegetables and spices value chains SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 2-4 Table 2-3: Adjusted and Achieved Sample Sizes Category Adjusted Sampling frame Adjusted sample Size Achieved sample size Percent Achieved Individual poultry producers 8,000 130 134 103% Individual fruits/vegetables/spices producers 10,000 130 137 105% SMEs involved in poultry feed manufacturing 64 21 26 124% SMEs involved in fruits/vegetables/spices processing 31 13 10 77% Financial institutions (NBFIs, community banks and leasing companies) 20 13 12 92% Other program partners 8 8 4 50% Total 18,123 315 323 103% A total of 323 respondents were interviewed against an adjusted target of 313 respondents resulting to an overall achievement of 103% of the adjusted sample. However, the targeted sample size was not achieved for some categories especially, other program partners, SMEs involved in fruits, vegetables and /or spices processing as well as non-bank financial institutions. Some of the key limitations are outlined in section 2.4 below. 2.3.3 Training and Pre-testing A two-day training for the research team was conducted on 26th and 27th November, 2015. The training exercise was meant to acquaint the researchers with the data collection tools as well as equip the researchers with the necessary data collection skills. Researchers were also given background data on the client (SEAF), and the KASI Agriventures program. Training was followed by a one day pre-testing exercise on November 28, 2015. Pre-testing was conducted in four different areas neighboring Dar Es Salaam. These were Bagamoyo, Chanika, Mlandizi and Mkuranga. The sites were selected based on proximity to Dar es Salaam, the fact that they were major producer zones for poultry as well as fruits, spices and vegetables. A total of 17 respondents were interviewed during the pre-test. Pre-testing was designed to check on the logic flow of the data collection tools, approximate the time required to conduct an interview, check the understanding of the researchers and check for any ambiguous questions. After the training and pre-test exercise, the data collection tools were amended (questions changed, deleted, added, re-arranged or rephrased) as was found appropriate. The final data collection tools that were used are attached as Annex 3. 2.3.4 Data Collection Approaches During data collection, researchers were split into four teams, each supervised by a key expert. Each team was allocated a proportion of target sample based on the prominence of the target SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 2-5 value chains in their respective areas. The eventual teams organization and the sample sizes are summarized in Table 2-4. Table 2-4: Team Organization and Sample Allocations # Team Category Allocated Sample size 1 Dar Es Salaam and Coast Financial institutions 12 Individual poultry farmers 40 Fruit/spice processors 13 Poultry feed manufacturers 15 2 Iringa Mbeya Team Financial institutions 2 Individual poultry farmers 20 Fruit/spice processors 3 Individual fruit/spice farmer 55 Poultry feed manufacturers 2 3 Arusha and Kilimanjaro Financial institutions 6 Individual poultry farmers 20 Fruit/spice processors 10 Individual fruit/spice farmer 45 Poultry feed manufacturers 12 4 Morogoro and Coast Individual poultry farmers 60 Fruit/spice processors 3 Individual fruit/spice farmer 30 Poultry feed manufacturers 4 Total 352 NB: The allocated sample size is much higher compared to the target adjusted sample size of 315 respondents For each of the teams, data collection was pre-defined in three steps as shown in figure 2-1 below. Figure 2-1: Data collecting approach The first step was to identify location of the target respondents as well as categorizing them as either individuals or organizations. In the case of organizations, the research team identified the contact person particularly the decision makers in the organization. The second step was to send out appointment requests. In cases where the respondents agreed to be interviewed on the spot, the interviews were conducted immediately but where interviewees preferred a later date, the researchers followed up as agreed. Team leaders were responsible for guiding the researchers as well as quality control of the data collected. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 2-6 2.3.5 Data Entry and Analysis Collected data was entered into Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) software by qualified data entry clerks6 . Separate data entry templates were developed for each group of respondents. The data was then cleaned to check for missing values, incorrectly entered data, inconsistent data and outliers. Data was analyzed using the SPSS software but for some cases data was exported to STATA software and analyzed to generate the required statistics. Different methods such as frequencies, descriptive statistics, cross tabulations and multiple responses analysis were used. Where necessary, data was re-coded and new variables generated, split or merged to arrive at the required results. To improve the quality (validity and reliability) of data, triangulation (comparison of data with other sources), was applied where necessary. 2.3.6 Reporting Results of the data analysis are presented in this baseline survey report. The report concentrates on information necessary to describe or generate baseline values for the program indicators. 2.4 Limitations for the Baseline Survey While the achievement of the overall target sample was exceeded, major limitations for the baseline survey included: • Reluctance of some of the targeted organizations and institutions to grant interviews. This was common for more formalized financial organizations and SMEs who cited confidentiality of information. Other organizations and institutions needed authorization to respond, delaying the interview process; • Reluctance to provide some data, especially financial data, that was considered confidential, resulting in incomplete questionnaires and therefore incomplete data; • Unavailability of key contact persons in the targeted organizations and institutions. In some cases, researchers were unable to secure appointments with key decision makers in the organizations and opted not to interview employees who were not involved in management; and • Time limitations. Given that the data collection exercise was time bound, not all the responses were received within the set deadlines; To address some of these limitations the consultant used the following approaches: • Additional sample to cater for non-responses. As noted an additional 30% of the sample size was added so as to cater for any non-response that might occur during data collection • Replacement of unavailable or unwilling respondents. Replacement was done by randomly selecting other organizations in the sampling frame or as encountered during the survey exercise; and 6 All data entry and analysis was carried out at a central place to ensure homogeneity. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 2-7 • Data triangulation. This included getting information from secondary sources such as relevant reports and literature to verify reliability and credibility of the survey data. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-1 3 RESULTS AND FINDINGS 3.1 Findings on Agricultural Production and Processing To generate baseline values for primary production, a total of 134 individual poultry keepers and 137 fruits, vegetables or spices producers were interviewed. In addition, 26 SMEs involved in manufacturing poultry feeds and 10 SMEs involved in processing fruits, vegetables and/or spices were interviewed to generate baseline values for post-production processing. The results are presented in the sub-sections that follow. 3.1.1 Agricultural Production by Primary Producers 3.1.1.1 Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Production The KASI Agriventures program targets key fruits, vegetables and spices value chains in Tanzania. On average, sampled farmers have been producing fruits, vegetables or spices for about six and half years (6.5 years). Average land holding for sampled farmers was 3.4 acres (1.4 hectares) out of which 2.6 acres (approximately 1 hectare) was dedicated to crop production; amongst them fruits, vegetables and spices. Amongst fruit value chains, pineapples were the most commonly produced followed by mangoes and lastly bananas. For vegetables, tomatoes were the most commonly produced, followed by onions, green pepper and carrots in that order. Only a few respondents produced spices with chilies being the most common. Other spices included paprika and vanilla. Table 3-1: Major Produced Fruits Vegetables and Spices Category Value chain N Percent Fruits Pineapple 21 48.8% Mango 10 23.3% Oranges 4 9.3% Watermelon 3 7.0% Pawpaw 2 4.7% Passion 2 4.7% Banana 1 2.3% Total fruits 43 100% Vegetables Tomatoes7 85 49.7% Onion 33 19.3% Green Pepper(Capsicum) 31 18.1% Carrots 13 7.6% Okra 4 2.3% Eggplant 3 1.8% Butternut 1 0.6% Cabbage 1 0.6% 7 While tomatoes are technically (botanically) classified as fruits, this report has classified tomatoes as vegetables based on their uses and understanding within the region. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-2 Category Value chain N Percent Total vegetables 171 100% Spices Chili 4 50.0% Paprika 3 37.5% Vanilla 1 12.5% Cinnamon 0 0.00% Total Spices 8 100% Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Within the last 1 year, sampled respondents produced 10.3 tons of various fruits, 25.6 tons of vegetables and 1.3 tons of spices. Quantities produced for various categorizes are as shown in Table 3-2 below. Table 3-2: Average Volumes of Major Produced Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Produce Category Commodity Total Annual Production (Kgs) Fruits Pineapple 4,255 Passion 08 Mango 5,402 Watermelon 0 Pawpaw 600 Total fruits 10,257 Vegetables Carrots 5,268 Tomatoes 14,063 Onion 4,097 Green pepper 2,049 Cucumber 105 Total Vegetables 25,582 Spices Vanilla 12 Cinnamon 0 Paprika 48 Chili 1,200 Total Spices 1,260 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.1.1.2 Poultry Production On average, sampled farmers had been rearing poultry for eight and a half years (8.5 years). The percentage of farmers with less than 50 birds has decreased from 11.7% at the start (8.5 years ago) to 3% at the time of the baseline survey. Meanwhile, the number of respondents (poultry farmers) that were keeping more than 200 birds had increased from 34% to 57% during the past 8.5 years (Table 3-3). This implies that poultry stocks have been increasing over time. 8 Despite water melons and passion being produced, none of the respondents indicated to have harvested within the last 1 year. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-3 Table 3-3: Average Number of Poultry Stocks # Number Starting Point9 At the Baseline Frequency Percent Frequency Percent 1 <10 6 4.5% 0 0% 2 10-50 11 8.2% 4 3% 3 51-100 38 28% 39 29% 4 101-200 33 25% 15 11% 5 >200 46 34% 76 57% Total 134 100% 134 100% Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Of the sampled farmers, majority (76%) mostly reared improved breeds of chicken. A total of 21% of the sampled farmers kept indigenous chicken while 13% kept both indigenous and improved breeds (Figure 3-1). 21% 76% 13% Category of Poultry Reared Category of Poultry Reared Indigenous (n=28) Improved breed (n=102) Mixed indigenous and Impr Figure 3-1: Category of poultry reared Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The KASI Agriventures program targets to increase production of poultry by improving access to quality and affordable poultry feeds for poultry producers. From the baseline survey, poultry producers purchased feeds frequently, with majority of the respondents (44%) having to purchase at least on a weekly basis, and another 24% purchasing feeds every 2 weeks. The survey also found that 15% of respondents purchased feeds on a monthly basis. This implies that there is high demand for poultry feeds but may also point to the fact that producers purchase feeds in smaller quantities but do so more frequently. 9 Starting point is on average eight and a half years before the baseline period. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-4 Table 3-4: Frequency of Purchasing Poultry Feeds Frequency of Purchasing Feeds N Percent Weekly 58 44% Every 2 weeks 32 24% Monthly 20 15% Daily 9 6% Three times per Month 4 3% Three times per Week 2 2% Twice a Week 2 2% Quarterly (every 3 Months) 2 2% Irregularly 2 2% Total 131 100% Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The major sources of poultry feeds for majority of the respondents were feed manufacturers (37%), feed retailers (31%) and feed wholesalers/distributors at 15.7%. It was also noted that approximately 22% of the respondents manufactured poultry feeds on-farm as a way of minimizing the costs of production. 22% 37% 16% 3 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Sources of Manufactured Feeds Own production (n=29) Feed manufacturer (n Feed wholesalers (n=21) Feed retailers (n=42) Figure 3-2: Sources of Poultry Feeds Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Results also indicate that feed manufacturers played a major role not only in supplying feeds to producers but also in providing other services. Of the 61% of respondents that received other services from feed manufacturers, 67% received drugs and vaccines, 13% received day old chicks, 11% received poultry equipment and tools, and 9% received extension services from feed manufacturers. This creates an avenue for KASI Agriventures to use manufacturers for improving access to other poultry production inputs needed by poultry producers in addition SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-5 to poultry feeds. On average, poultry producers purchased approximately 1.9 tons of different types of poultry feeds valued at USD 957 per month. This would translate to an average of 23.3 tons valued at USD 11,486 per year10. Table 3-5: Average Monthly Quantity and Value of Poultry Feeds Purchased N Minimum Maximum Mean Quantity of Feed Purchased (Kgs) 134 200 27,500 1,938 Value of Feed Purchased (USD) 133 7 13,302 957 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The major types of poultry feeds used by poultry producers (whether purchased or prepared on the farm) included chick mash, broilers mash and growers mash as mentioned in 60%, 49% and 42% of the cases. Other types included layers mash and maize bran. While these results suggest that farmers may be producing more broilers than layers, it should also be noted that broilers are heavy feeders compared to layers. Table 3-6: Main Feed Bought/Produced by Farmers Feed type Percentage of farmers buying/producing N Chick mash 60% 80 Growers mash 42% 56 Layers mash 37% 50 Broilers mash and pellets 49 % 66 Maize bran/swam 10% 14 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Although majority (60%) of the poultry producers purchased chick mash, farmers bought higher quantities of broilers and layers mash. These two feed types also comprised the highest costs. Table 3-7 shows the average monthly and annual quantities as well as value of purchases. 10 Average quantities and values was calculated the regardless of the type of feed purchased. This was done by creating two new variables from the data set which was a summation of all quantities and value of feeds purchased for each of the respondents. This was then analyzed to give a minimum, maximum and an average. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-6 Table 3-7: Average Monthly/Annual Quantities and Value of Feed Purchased by Type Feed type N Average Quantity Purchased per Month (Kgs) Average Cost per Month (USD) Average Quantity Purchased per Year (Kgs) Average Annual Cost (USD) Chick mash 80 492 373 5,906 4,476 Growers mash 56 1,162 734 13,946 8,808 Layers mash 50 1,128 887 13,531 10,643 Broilers mash 61 1,290 844 15,475 10,128 Broilers pellets 5 480 270 5,760 3,240 Maize bran/swam 14 268 96 3,214 1,152 Homemade ration 25 823 77 9,880 924 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The major challenge regarding access to poultry feed was the high cost of feed as mentioned by 90% of the respondents. Other challenges included poor quality of feeds as well as unavailability of poultry feeds. These responses validate the rationale for the KASI Agriventures program’s interventions focused on lowering the cost of feeds as well as improving the quality of poultry feeds supplied to poultry farmers by manufacturers. 31% 16% Type of challenge Challenges Faced by Poultry Farmers in Accessing Feeds Feed unavailability (n=21) Poor quality feeds (n=41) Hig Figure 3-3: Challenges Faced by Poultry Farmers in Accessing Poultry Feeds Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.1.1.3 Access and Use of Farm Labor amongst Producers Fruits, vegetables and spice producers employed an average of four permanent laborers and five casual laborers in addition to two of the household members for a total of 11 laborers. The total monthly cost of labor was estimated at USD 490. Approximately 67% of the poultry producers employed labor, on either casual or permanent terms, in addition to two family SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-7 members. On average, poultry keepers incurred approximately USD 361 per month on labor, with casual labor having the highest share of costs. The average number of family, permanent and casual labor was two, making a total of six laborers per month (Table 3.8). Table 3-8: Monthly Labor Size and Cost Amongst Producers Labor source Fruit, Vegetables and Spices Producers Poultry Producers Average Number of Employees Total Monthly Labor Cost (USD) Average Number of employees Total Monthly labor cost (USD) Family labor 2 100 2 100 Permanent labor 4 265 2 122 Casual labor 5 128 2 139 Total 11 490 6 361 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Despite the fact that producers employed labor, they faced a number of challenges, key amongst them being the lack of experienced labor, high cost of labor and unavailability of labor especially during the peak seasons11 (Figure 3-4). 18.2% 6.9% 31.3% 44.3% 38.6% 39.7% 7.4% 4.6% Challenges with Labor among Producers Unavailability of labour during peak seasons (n=41) Lack of experienced labour (n=113) High Cost of Labour(n=120) Dishonest labourers (n=19) Figure 3-4: Challenges with Labor amongst Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 11 Unavailability of labor during the peak season was not a major challenge for poultry producers as it was mentioned by only 6.9% of the respondents. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-8 3.1.2 Quantity and Value of Products Marketed by Producers Within the last year, fruits, vegetables and spice producers that were surveyed sold approximately 3.4 tons of fruits, 8.5 tons of vegetables and 0.6 tons of spices on average. Most of these were marketed as raw materials (Table 3-9). Table 3-9: Average Value of Commodities Marketed by Fruit, Vegetables and Spices producers Produce Category Commodity Quantity Marketed per Year (Kgs) Weight weighted quantity (kgs) Fruits Pineapple 4,255 49% 2,076 Passion 0 5% 0 Mango 5,402 23% 1,259 Pawpaw 600 5% 28.2 Total Fruits 3,363 Vegetables Carrots 5,268 8% 400 Tomatoes 14,063 50% 6,989 Onion 4,097 19% 791 Green pepper 2,049 18% 371 Cucumber 105 1% 1 Total Vegetables 8,552 Spices Vanilla 12 12.50% 1.5 Paprika 48 38% 18 Chili 1,200 50% 600 Total Spices 1,260 620 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Within the last year, fruits, vegetables and spices producers earned an average of USD12,348 per producer with a minimum of USD 450 and a maximum of USD 361,860 (Table 3-10) 12. Table 3-10: Average Annual Incomes for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Producers Annual Incomes N Minimum Maximum Mean Annual Incomes - TZS 115 967,500 778,000,000 26,548,995 Annual Incomes - USD 115 450 361,860 12,348 In comparison, poultry producers marketed various products including mature birds, eggs and manure as reported by 68%, 49% and 37% of the poultry producers respectively. Only 19% of the sampled producers were selling chicks (Figure 3-5). 12 Calculated using similar approach as Table 3-5 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-9 68% 19% 49% 37% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Products Sold by Poultry Farmers Ma Chi Egg Ma Figure 3-5: Poultry Products Sold by Sampled Poultry Farmers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 While majority of the respondents sold live hen and eggs, the average annual revenues were higher for those who sold chicks (13% of the respondents), with an average revenue of approximately USD11,500. On average, those who sold live hen (60% of the respondents), earned USD 9,861 annually, while those who sold live cocks (28% of the respondents) earned an average of USD 8,175 annually. Those who sold eggs (46%) earned an average of USD 6,645. Table 3-11 shows the average quantities and value of chicken products sold by poultry producers. Table 3-11: Annual Average Revenue from Poultry Product Sales by Product Type Type of Product N Minimum Maximum Mean Total Revenue per year- Live bird cock 37 56 139,535 8,175 Total Revenue per year-Live bird hen 81 56 184,186 9,861 Total Revenue per year- Eggs 62 45 55,174 6,645 Total Revenue per year- Chicks 18 56 77,395 11,497 Total Revenue per year- Manure 40 4 10,047 831 Total Revenue per year- Hatching of Eggs 1 8,372 8,372 8,372 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Since respondents sold one or more of the poultry products, poultry producers earned an average of USD13,148 annually as shown in Table 3-12 below. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-10 Table 3-12: Average Annual Incomes for Poultry Producers13 Annual Incomes N Minimum Maximum Mean Annual Incomes - TZs 134 406,000 396,000,000 28,267,717 Annual Incomes - USD 134 189 184,186 13,148 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.1.2.1 Marketing Outlets for Producers Approximately 40% of respondents identified retailers at local markets as their primary buyers, followed by 27% of respondents who indicated individuals at the household level as their major market outlet. Approximately 13% sold to wholesalers and larger aggregators with an additional 10% selling to middlemen and brokers. The survey also found that only 8% of the sampled respondents were able to access higher-end markets such as exporters (5%) and processors (3%). This may be attributed to the fact that processors expect a certain level of uniformity and quality, which smallholder farmers may find difficult to meet. 27% 40% 13% 10% 5% 3% 1% Outlet Market Outlets for Fruits, Vegetables & Spices Producers Individual customers/households (n=71) Retailers at the local markets (n=99) Wholesalers/aggregators at the local markets (n=33) Middlemen/brokers (n=25) Exportersor their agents (n=12) Processors or their agents (n=5) Shops/supermarkets (n=3) Figure 3-6: Market Outlets for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The major market outlets for poultry products are as shown in Figure 3.7 below. Survey results indicate that a majority of the producers sold their products within their localities either to individual customers or retailers at the local markets. Similar to fruits, vegetables and spice producers, fewer poultry producers accessed higher-end markets including wholesalers and large off-takers as well as supermarkets and hotels. 13 Calculated using similar approach as Table 3-5, 3-10 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-11 48.5% 34.2% 5.4% 10.4% 1.5% Market Outlets for Poultry Products Individual customers/households/far Retailers at the local mar Wholesalers/large off-tak Shops/supermarkets (n=2 R t t /h t l ( =3) Figure 3-7: Market Outlets for Poultry Products Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Such a disparity may be as a result of lack of organized marketing. Majority of the poultry producers sold their products as individuals and only 15.7% were members of a producer and marketing group. Out of those who belonged to a group, only 30% noted that they benefited from group marketing. With better organized marketing, producers are more likely to access more formalized (and often more lucrative) markets. 3.1.2.2 Contractual Marketing amongst Producers Marketing under contract was used as a proxy for stable and reliable markets. Only 7.6% of the sampled fruits, vegetables and spice producers sold their products through formal or informal contractual arrangements, with most of the arrangements being under informal (non-written) contracts14. Major buyers on contract terms were retailers and processors while major value chains purchased on contractual arrangements being vegetables. Table 3-13: Number of Producers with Formal Or Informal Contracts by Product Commodity Type of contract Buyers Formal Informal Retailers Middlemen Institutions Processors Green pepper 0 2 1 1 0 0 Tomatoes15 1 4 2 0 1 2 Pineapples 0 1 0 0 0 1 Onions 0 1 1 0 0 0 Total 1 8 4 1 1 3 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 14 This mainly involved simple supply orders. 15 Again, tomatoes have been treated as vegetables here as opposed to fruits. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-12 Within the last year, fruits, vegetables and spice producers that had contractual arrangements (7.6% of all producers surveyed) had sold a total of 17 tons of produce valued at USD 1,355 on contract basis. Table 3-14: Volumes and Values of Fruits and Vegetables Sold on Contract Commodity Annual Volume sold (MT) Annual Value of sale in USD Green pepper 3 590 Tomatoes 1 100 Pineapples 2 200 Onions 11 465 Total 17 1,355 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 In comparison to fruits and vegetables producers, 2.8% of poultry producers (or 33 respondents) had contractual arrangements with buyers for various products with majority of them (28 respondents) having informal contracts (Table 3-15). Eggs and live birds were the major products sold under contract. Table 3-15: Number of Farmers with Formal or Informal Contracts Per Poultry Products Commodity Type of contract Total Number of poultry producers with a formal contract Number of poultry producers with informal contracts Eggs 3 13 16 Live birds 2 13 15 Manure 0 2 2 Total 5 28 33 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Within the last year, all poultry keepers surveyed with a contractual arrangement sold products worth a total of USD 32,216 on contract basis, with live birds having the largest contribution at USD 18,766 (Table 3-16). Table 3-16: Commodities Sold on Contracts by Poultry Producers Poultry product Annual value of sale (USD) N Eggs 8,422 15 Live birds 18,766 13 Manure 5,073 2 Total 32,261 30 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-13 3.1.3 Post Production Processing by SMEs 3.1.3.1 Fruits, Vegetables, and Spice Processors Sampled fruits, vegetables and spice processors were relatively large compared to poultry feed manufacturers. Approximately 50% of the sampled processors were incorporated as sole proprietorship, 40% as limited companies and 10% as partnerships. On average, these organizations had been in operation for approximately ten and a half years (10.5 years) with the oldest being 36 years and the most recent having been established two years ago (2013). The processors employed up to 63 permanent laborers as well as an average of 11 casual employees during the normal production periods. During peak seasons, the average number of casual employees increased to 25. The majority (43.7%) of the organizations were involved in processing fruits, 31.3% were vegetable processors while 25% were involved in spice processing. 43.7% 31.3% Type of Processor (n=10) Figure 3-8: Type of Processors Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 On average, SMEs involved in processing fruits, vegetables and spices benefited an average of 1,541 smallholder farmers. However, the relatively larger SMEs served up to an average of 3,225 smallholder farmers while the relatively smaller ones served an average of 194 smallholder farmers. According to the baseline study, The average installed capacities are: fruits- 2.5MT/day; Vegetables - 3.1MT/day; and spices -0.02 MT/day. Utilized capacities as measured by daily output is as follows: for fruits s 2.14 MT/day, for vegetables is 2.83 MT/day and for spices is 0.01MT/day. Given these values, the utilization rates are therefore, 85% for fruits, 90% for vegetables and 44% for spices. On average, each SME involved in processing of fruits purchased an average of 117 tons of various raw materials per month valued at USD 6,028. This translates to averages of 1,404 tons of raw materials per year valued at USD 72,336. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-14 Table 3-17: Average Monthly Quantities and Value of Raw Materials Purchased by Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Processors16 N Minimum Maximum Mean Quantity of Raw Materials (Tons) 7 0.6 370 117 Value of Raw Materials (USD) 7 24.42 19,535 6,028 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The average monthly quantities and values of raw materials purchased by processors are as shown in Table 3-18 below. Table 3-18: Annual Average Quantities and Values for Raw Materials Purchased by Processors Category Raw Material Bought Quantity Bought (Tons) Weight Weighted Quantity Bought (Tons)/SME Average Price per Ton (USD) Value of Raw Material (USD) Fruits Banana 480 20% 96 326 31,296 Mango 276 30% 82.8 271 22,439 Passion 504 20% 100.8 260 26,208 Pineapple 720 30% 216 335 72,360 Sub-total 495.6 152,303 Vegetables Carrots 204 10% 20.4 465 9,486 Fine Beans 96 10% 9.6 512 4,915 Snow peas 144 10% 14.4 791 11,390 Sugar Snaps 144 10% 14.4 837 12,053 Tomatoes 888 30% 266.4 521 138,794 Sub-total 325.2 176,639 Spices Black Pepper 1.2 10% 0.12 70 8 Cardamom 1.2 10% 0.12 140 17 Cinnamon 0.72 20% 0.14 2,209 318 Garlic 0.24 20% 0.05 2,326 112 Ginger 0.36 10% 0.04 2,326 84 Vanilla 14.04 20% 2.81 5,157 14,481 Sub-total 3.28 15,020 The major raw materials purchased by fruits, vegetables and spices processors included pineapples, tomatoes, mangoes and cinnamon (Figure 3-9). 16 Calculated using similar approach as Table 3-5, 3-10, 312 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-15 27.3% 22.7% 13.6% 13.6% 9.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Typeof Raw Materials Procured Major Raw Materials Procured by Fruits Vegetables/Spices SMEs Figure 3-9: Major Raw Materials Procured by Fruits, Vegetables/Spices Processors Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 While the source of raw material depended mostly on the type of raw material purchased, major sources include direct purchases from smallholder farmers or using a network of smallholder farmer groups as noted by 38.5% and 28.2% of the processors respectively (Figure 3-10). These findings indicate that processors preferred procuring directly from producers and therefore with better organization, producers will most likely have better access to markets. 38.5% 28.2% 2.6% 17.9% 2 6% 10.3% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Figure 3-10: Sources of Raw Materials for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Processors Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Major processed outputs varied by type of commodity processed. Fruits were mainly processed into juices and pulp while vegetables were mainly processed into dried vegetables, sauces and canned vegetables. Spices were mainly dried and ground into powders. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-16 Table 3-19: Major Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Products Processed Produce Category Type of processed output Number of firms producing Fruits Juices 1 Pulp 1 Vegetables Pastes 1 Sauces 2 Canned vegetables 2 Dried vegetables 3 Fresh vegetables 1 Spices Ground spices/powders 3 Liquid spices 1 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.1.3.2 Poultry Feed Manufacturers Sampled feed manufacturers were mainly sole proprietorships (96%) who had been involved in the business for an average of nine years. These businesses had an average of two branches, employed an average of 10 permanent employees (eight male and two female), and an average of 10 casual laborers (seven male and three female). The survey found that on average, feed manufacturers have an installed production capacity of 13.7MT/day with 77.5% of the capacity (8.2 MT/day) being utilized. 13.7 8.2 77.50 Installed capacity Utilized capacity Percent utilizat Installed Versus Utilized Capacities- Poultry Manufacturer Figure 3-11: Average Daily Poultry Feed Processing Production Capacities and Capacity Utilization (MT) Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Poultry feed manufacturers combine various raw materials to produce poultry feeds. The volumes and values of raw materials procured by feed manufacturers are as shown in Table below 3-19. Dry maize was the major purchased raw material. Others raw materials include barley, sunflower, maize bran, wheat and rice. Major protein sources included soy beans, fish SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-17 and fish meal, cotton cake, bone meal and blood meal. Manufacturers also procured minerals such as salts, limestone and other additives. SMEs involved in poultry feed manufacturing procured various types of raw materials. Maize, additives and minerals, soy beans/soy bean cakes as well as fish/fish meal were the most commonly purchased raw materials. On average, each SME purchased 105 tons of raw materials valued at USD 38,525 per month. This translates to an average of 1,263 tons per year valued at USD 462,300 annually. Table 3-20: Average Monthly Quantities and Value of Raw Materials Used by Poultry Feed Manufacturers N Minimum Maximum Mean Quantity of Raw Materials (Tons) 26 12 480 105 Value of Raw Materials (USD) 26 4,767 169,070 38,525 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Monthly average quantities and value of raw materials for each of the raw materials is as shown in Table 3-20 below. Table 3-21: Average Monthly Poultry Raw Materials Used in Poultry Feeds Manufacturing Type of Raw material Monthly Purchased Quantities (Tons) Average Monthly cost USD Soya bean 12 6,822 Feed Maize 36.9 9,135 Barley 35 1,860 Sorghum 3.8 883 Millet 6.8 1,348 Groundnuts 6.4 2,342 Sunflower 16.7 3,082 Oats 11.2 6,162 Oil cake 12.2 3,084 Rice 15.5 1,959 Fish 8.1 7,492 Cotton 11.2 2,581 Wheat 16.8 1,003 Pollard 7 845 Minerals 3.1 312 Bone meal 6.5 1,162 Maize bran 13 1,460 Blood meal 5.4 2,093 Maize swarm 8.6 1,114 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-18 The major sources of raw materials for poultry feed manufacturers included traders and aggregators as well as small scale farmers (Figure 3-12). 67% 63% 37% 19% 15% Sources of Raw Materials for Poultry Feed Manufacturers Traders/Aggregators (n=18) Small scale farmers/farmer groups Own Agents (n=10) Imports from other countries (n=5 Millers (n=4) Figure 3-12: Sources of Raw Materials for Poultry Feed Manufacturers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 According to the survey findings, SMEs involved in poultry feed manufacturing produces a monthly average of 23.1 MT of chick mash, 24.4 tones of broilers mash, 22.2 tons of growers mash and 22.1 tones of layers mash (Table 3-22). Table 3-22: Average Poultry Feed Production Capacities Feed Type of Poultry Feed Monthly Production (Metric Tons) Annual Production (Metric Tons) Chicken feed Chick Mash 23.1 277.2 Broiler mash 24.4 292.4 Growers mash 22.2 265.9 Layers mash 22.1 265.2 Pellet 3.0 36 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.1.4 Marketing amongst SMEs Daily processing capacities averaged 2.4 tones of fruits, 1.3 tones of vegetables and 0.01 tones of spices. This translated to approximately 577.4 tones of fruits(and fruit products), 321.4 tones of vegetables (vegetable products) and 1.7 tones of spices per year. Within the last year, each SME involved in fruit, vegetables and spice processing sold an average of 481 tons of fruits and fruit products valued at USD 342,594, 267.8 tons of vegetable products valued at USD 246,898 and 1.4 tons of spices valued at approximately USD 30,081 (Table 3-22). SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-19 Table 3-23: Annual Quantity and Value of Commodities Sold by SMEs Involved in Fruits, Vegetables and Spice Processing Category Output Sold N Average Quantity Sold (Tons) Weight Average Quantity Sold (Tons)/ SME Average Price per Ton (USD) Annual Value of Output sold (USD)/ SME Fruits Mango 2 1,080 20% 216.00 665 143,640 Passion 1 996 10% 99.60 837 83,365 Pineapple 1 1,656 10% 165.60 698 115,589 Sub-total 481.2 342,594 Vegetables Carrots 1 204 10% 20.40 698 14,239 Fine beans 1 122.4 10% 12.24 2,621 32,081 snow peas 1 144 10% 14.40 2,698 38,851 Sugar Snap 1 144 10% 14.40 2,674 38,506 Tomatoes 3 688 30% 206.40 597 123,221 Sub-total 267.8 246,898 Spices Black pepper 1 0.12 10% 0.01 1,628 20 Cardamom 1 0.12 10% 0.01 2,093 25 Cinnamon 2 0.12 20% 0.02 23,256 558 Garlic 1 0.36 10% 0.04 2,791 100 Ginger 1 0.54 10% 0.05 1,395 75 Vanilla 2 6.3 20% 1.26 23,256 29,303 Sub-total 1.4 30,081 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 On the other hand, each poultry feed manufacturer sold an average of 84 tons of animal feeds per month earning and average value of USD 36,19317. This translates to an annual average of 1,008 tons of feed valued at USD 434, 316. Table 3-24: Average Monthly Quantities and Value of Poultry Feeds Sold by Poultry Feed Manufacturers N Minimum Maximum Mean Quantity sold per Month (Tons) 26 3 385 84 Value of sales per month (USD) 26 1,381 169,256 36,139 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 17 While this figure may insinuate that poultry feed processors are making losses (since the value of raw materials is higher than the monthly revenues), it should be noted that processors did not sell all their products in one month. . Further, some processors used the same raw materials to manufacture feeds for other types of livestock. This baseline survey was limited in determining the quantities that are used for other animal feeds apart from poultry. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-20 Within the last year, each processor who manufactured chick mash sold an average of 292 tons valued at USD134,263 while those manufacturing pellets sold an average of 36 tons valued at USD10,884 (Table 3-24). Table 3-25: Annual Quantities and Value of Feeds Sold by SMEs Involved in Poultry Feed Manufacturing Output Sold No. of SMEs selling Quantity Sold (Tons), per SME Average Price per Ton (USD) Value of Output Sold (USD) Broilers Mash (Starter & Finisher) 26 277 484 134,263 Chick Mash 22 292 471 137,776 Growers Mash 24 266 407 108,200 Layers Mash 26 265 421 111,564 Pellets 1 36 302 10,884 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Sampled SMEs mainly sold their products in the domestic market (100% for poultry feed manufactures and 79% for fruits, vegetables and spice processors). This implies that 21% of fruits, vegetables and spices products were exported. Key exported products included vegetables (snow peas, sugar snaps, fine beans) and spices (vanilla) particularly to the European Union (EU) markets. Market outlets used by sampled SMEs included their own distribution networks. The survey found that 40% of the fruits, vegetables and spices processors and 36% of the poultry feed manufacturers each had an average of 2 branches. Major market outlets for fruits, vegetables and spice processors were distributors, supermarkets, wholesalers and retailers (Figure 3-13). 11% 21% 15% 15% 15% 2% 11% 9.4% Outlet Market Outlets for Fruits,Veges & Spices Processors Other manufacturers/processors Distributors Supermarkets Wholesalers Retailers Institutions(Hotels,schools,hospitals) Individual Consumers buying directly from the company European Market (Belgium,North Ireland) Figure 3-13: Major Market Outlets for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Processors Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-21 Although only 36% of the poultry producers had branches (an average of 2 branches), the vast majority (96%) of all those sampled had plans to set up new branches. Major market outlets for feed manufacturers included the use of distributors, selling directly to small scale producers as well as direct sales to large scale producers. 40.6% 17.2% 6.3% 29.7% 6.3% Outlet Market Outlets for SMEs Involved in Poultry Feed Manufacturing Sell to distributors/retailers Sell directly to large scale poultry farmers Farmer groups/Cooperative societies Sell directly to small scale poultry farmers Institutions Figure 3-14: Major Market Outlets for Poultry Feed Manufactures Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SMEs are faced with number of challenges in marketing their products. For poultry feed manufacturers, competition with low-quality feeds is a major challenge as mentioned by 74% of the cases. Other obstacles reported were inconsistency in demand and high distribution costs. Fruits, vegetables and spice processors were mainly challenged by inconsistency of demand as mentioned by 60% of the respondents. They also faced a unique challenge associated with lack of the necessary infrastructure (air cargo flights) for export and therefore limited access to foreign markets. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-22 59% 60% 74% 52% 50% 50% 20% Poultry Feed Manufacturers (n=26) Fruits, Vegetables & Spices Processors (n=10) SMEs Challenges in Marketing Inconsistent demand Competition with low quality products High distribution cost Limited flight options for export Figure 3-15: Marketing Challenges for SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 These challenges presents key gaps that the KASI Agriventures program is designed to address, particularly the issue of competition from low quality feeds in the market. 3.2 Supply and Demand of Financial Services 3.2.1 Supply of Financial Services A total of 12 financial institutions were sampled. Case summaries for the sampled institutions are provided under Annex 4. These included five microfinance banks, six community banks and one leasing company (Table 3-25). Table 3-26: Category of Financial Institutions Sampled Category Number of institutions Micro finance banks 5 Community banks 6 Leasing company 1 Total 12 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Majority of the sampled institutions (50%) offered long and short term agricultural lending products while 28% offered agricultural asset financing and 17% offered agricultural leasing products. The major financial products supplied are as shown in Figure 3-16 below. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-23 50% 28% 5% Agricultural Financing Products Offered by Financial Institutions Agricultural lending Agricultural leasing Agricultural assets f Figure 3-16: Major Agricultural Financing Products Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey 2015 On average, agricultural portfolios as a percentage of the total portfolios for the sampled organizations were approximately 22.3% valued at USD 1.45 million with a minimum of USD 0.14 million (5% of total portfolio) and a maximum of USD 4.65 million (60% of total portfolio). Table 3-27: Percentage and Value of Agricultural Portfolios Agricultural Portfolio N Minimum Maximum Mean Percentage of the total agricultural/ agribusiness financing portfolio 11 5 60 22.25 Value of Portfolio in USD 10 139,535 4,651,163 1,449,019 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Generally, agricultural lending was observed to be relatively risky with a total of 16% of the agricultural portfolio (USD 231,843 on average) being past the due date. A total of 9.1% of the total agricultural loans were within 90 days past the due date. As shown in Figure 3-17 below, , portfolios at risk (PAR) was highest for loans that were within 30 days past the due date at 4% and loans that were between 181 and 360 days past the due date18 at 3.8%. 18 Implying that they could be under consideration for writing off. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-24 4.0% 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 3.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1-30 days (n=8) 31-60 days (n=7) 61-90 days (n=4) 91-120 days (n=4) 121-180 days (n=3) 181-365 days (n=2) Average Portfolio At Risk (PAR) Figure 3-17: Average Agricultural Portfolio at Risk Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey 2015 On average, each of the sampled financial institutions had offered loans to 743 clients within the past year. Majority of these were either associations/co-operatives or groups. The numbers of corporate clients were the least (six on average). The high number of group based loans is consistent with the group based lending approach, which is preferred by non-bank or community-based financial institutions. While the low number of corporate clients may indicate a low preference to lend to corporate clients, it may also be indicative of the financial institution’s product offerings and loan sizes, which may not meet the needs of large corporate clients. Table 3-28: Major Agribusiness Loan Clients, Loan Products and Value of Loans in the Last One Year for Financial Institutions Client type Number of Loan Clients Product Mean Number of loans advanced Mean Value of loans in USD Individuals 230 Agricultural lending 259 652 Asset financing 25 24,186 Corporate 6 Agricultural lending 10 232,558 Asset financing 2 93,023 SMEs 19 Agricultural lending 19 114,729 Large Groups/ Cooperatives/ Associations 476 Agricultural lending 477 742,640 Asset financing 12 66,977 SACCOs 12 Agricultural lending 6 26,745 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-25 With regard to leasing, the major assets financed include plant and machinery, industrial and farm equipment as well as vehicles. On average, sampled organizations had offered 10 leases within the last year. Table 3-29: Lease financing to Agribusiness clients Product financed Average Number of Leases Offered Plants and machineries 4 Industrial farm equipment 3 Vehicles 3 Total 10 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey 2015 Within the agriculture sector, the baseline survey noted that financial institutions mostly financed cereals (67%) while vegetables came in second at 50%, followed by pulses at 42% (Figure 3.18). These results are however, expected because cereals and pulses are also the major categories of value chains that are produced by majority of Tanzanians. Fruits, vegetables and spices provide major opportunities for financing as they are considered high value commercial products. 67% 42% 50% 25% 25% 25% 25% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Percentage of Institutions financing Main Agribusiness Value Chains Financed Cereals (n=8) Pulses (n=5) Vegetables (n=6) Fruits (n=3) Root tubers (n=3) Poultry (n=3) Dairy (n=3) Spices (n=3) Figure 3-18: Major Agricultural Value Chains Financed by Non-bank Financial Institutions Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey 2015 Major challenges faced by sampled financial institutions while financing agribusinesses include slow repayment of loans, implying risk of default as well as high PARs as noted by 38% and 19% of the sampled institutions respectively. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-26 38% 19% 19% 19% 6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Slow repayment by members (n=6) High portifolio at Risk(PAR) (n=3) High costs of loan recovery (n=3) Unpredictable Climate (n=3) Poor Government Policy(n=1) Challenges/Risks in Providing Agribusiness Financing Figure 3-19: Challenges/Risks in Providing Agribusiness Financing Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey 2015 3.2.2 Demand for Financial Services amongst Producers 3.2.2.1 Sources of Start-up Capital for Producers Sources of start-up capital for agribusiness producers dealing with fruits, vegetables and spices as well as poultry keepers were mainly from informal sources. Indeed, personal savings was the major source of start-up capital for 75% of the poultry producers and 92% of the fruits, vegetables and spice producers. Other sources were borrowings from friends and family with the only semi-formal source being borrowing from Savings and Cooperative Societies (SACCOs) for only 1% of fruits, vegetable and spice producers and 7% of the poultry producers. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-27 92% 75% 7% 18% 1% 7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Producers (n=137) Poultry Producers (n=13 Sources of Start-up Capital for Producers Figure 3-20: Sources of Start-up Capital for Agricultural Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.2.2.2 Financial Needs for Producers Fruits, vegetables and spice producers required financing mainly to purchase inputs and production supplies such as seeds, fertilizers and agro-chemicals. Other needs included paying for farm labor as well as hiring or leasing of land (Figure 3-21.) 18.7% 50.4% 5.7% 6.5% 3.3% 0.8% 13.8% 0.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% To pay for farm labour and mechanized services To purchase inputs and supplies To pay for transport of produce to market To purchase machineries and equipments To build farm structures To pay for extension services and trainings To pay hiring/lease land For on-farm processing/value addition Major Financial Needs Fruits & Vegetables/Spices Farmers (n=123) Figure 3-21: Major Financial needs for Fruits, Vegetables and Spices Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-28 Similar to fruits, vegetables and spice producers, the major financial need for poultry producers was for purchase of feeds, drugs and other production supplies. Other needs included construction of farm structures and payment for labor (Figure 3-22). 10% 62% 6% 5% 13% 1% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Farm labour and mechanized services Purchase drugs, feeds,materials and supplies Transport of produce to market Purchase machineries and equipments To build farm structures(housing etc) Extension services and trainings Add stock Major Financial Needs for Poultry Farmers (n=117) Figure 3-22: Major Financial Needs for Poultry Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.2.2.3 Rates of Borrowing amongst Producers Other than borrowing for start-up capital, the rate of borrowing among producers was very low. Only 31% of the poultry keepers and 14% of the fruits, vegetables and spice producers have ever had a loan (Figure 3-23). SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-29 31% 14% 69% 86% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Poultry Farmers (n=117) Fruits & Vegetables/Spices (n=123) Ever Taken Loan for Financial Needs OtherThan Start-up Capital Figure 3-23: Rates of Borrowing amongst Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Of those producers who have had a loan, the majority (45%) of the fruit, vegetables and spice producers had borrowed from commercial banks while the majority of the poultry farmers (32%) had borrowed from savings groups. Only 18% of the fruit, vegetables and spice producers and 21% of the poultry producers had borrowed from non-bank financial institutions or community banks. 29% 21% 18% 32% 45% 18% 18% 18% Commercial MFI SACCOs Savings group Sources of Loans for Poultry Farmers and Fruits & vegetables/Spices Farmers Fruits & Vegetables/s farmers (n= Poultry Far (n=28) Figure 3-24: Sources of Loans for Poultry Farmers and Fruits & vegetables/Spices Farmers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.2.2.4 Loan Terms and Conditions versus Preferences SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-30 Producers generally perceived the terms and conditions of loans to be unfavorable. As expected, producers would have preferred lower interest rates ranging from 5.6% to 7.7% against the current rates, which range from 10.9% to 15.3%. Producers would also prefer longer grace periods of between 2.6 and 3.3 months as well as longer repayment periods of between 4.1 and 11.4 years. This is as opposed to the current grace periods of between 1.2 to 2.6 months and repayment periods of between 3.3 and 5.9 years. The current and the preferred loan terms for producers who had accessed loans are as summarized in Table 3-29 below. Table 3-30: Loan terms and conditions for vegetable and fruits producers Terms/Condition s Range Current Preferred Fruits, Vegetables & Spice Producers Poultry Producers Fruits, Vegetables & Spice Producers Poultry Producers Interest rate (%) Min 14.9% 10.9% 5.6% 5.8% Max 15.3% 11.6% 8.3% 7.7% Grace period (months) Min 1.2 Months 2.6 Months 3.3 Months 2.6 Months Max 1.2 Months 2.5 Months 4.6 Months 5.3 Months Repayment period (Years) Min 3.3 Years 4.6 Years 4.1 Years 10.7 Years Max 5.2 Years 5.9 Years 7.7 Years 11.4 Years Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.2.3 Demand for Financial Services amongst SMEs 3.2.3.1 Sources of Start-up Capital On average, sampled fruits, vegetables and spice processors had already invested USD 134,765 on average as start-up capital while SMEs involved in manufacturing poultry feeds invested an average of USD 34,244. Table 3-31: Value of Start-up Capital in USD Type of SME Amount in USD Min Max Mean Poultry Feed Manufacturers 465 325,581 34,244 Fruits & Vegetables/Spices 279 474,419 134,765 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Unlike individual producers, major sources of start-up capital for SMEs were investments by shareholders or owner’s equity and borrowing from formal sources such as commercial banks, MFIs and SACCOs. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-31 91% 33% 3% 59% 3% 3% 4% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Processors (n=10) Poultry Feed Manufacturers (n=26) Sources of Start-up Capital for SMEs Shareholders/Owners equity Commercial banks MFI SACCO Figure 3-25: Sources of Start-up Capital amongst SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 In addition, 3 of the sampled SMEs involved in fruits and vegetables processing and 1 of the poultry feed manufacturers had received equity funding from an external investor. SMEs received between USD 13,953 and USD 93,023 in exchange for 40% to 60% shareholding. Rates of borrowing amongst SMEs was lower for fruits, vegetables and spice processors at only 30% compared to 77% for SMEs engaged in poultry feed manufacturing. 30% 77% 70% 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Processors (n=10) Poultry Feed Manufactur Ever Acquired a Loan in the Last 12 Months Figure 3-26: Access to Loans amongst SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 For those who had taken out loans within the last year, the main source of loans was commercial banks. Preference by SMEs to borrow from MFIs was low at only 5% for poultry feed manufacturers and 0% for fruits, vegetables and spice processors. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-32 67% 90% 0% 5% 33% 5% Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Processors (n=3) Poultry Feed Manufacturers (n=22) Sources of Loans Commercial Bank MFI SACCO Figure 3-27: Sources of Loans for SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 On average, SMEs involved in fruits, vegetables and spices borrowed loans valued at USD 10,230, while those involved in manufacturing of poultry feeds borrowed an average of USD 19,210. Table 3-32: Average Loan Sizes Borrowed by SMEs Type of SME N Minimum Maximum Mean Fruits & Vegetables/Spices (USD) 3 465 23,256 10,233 Poultry Feed Manufacturers (USD) 22 2,326 93,023 19,209 These values are however, below the average amount of loans provided to SMEs as reported by financial institutions, which averaged USD 114,729. For fruits, vegetables and spice processors, key financial needs were capital for investments and business expansion as well as working capital to buy raw materials and other supplies. For poultry feed manufacturers, working capital to buy raw materials and other supplies comprised the key financing need followed by working capital for labor. It was noted that fruits, vegetables and spices processors did not borrow to fund labor costs. This is despite the fact that labor requirements for the fruits, vegetables and spice processors were much higher than for poultry feed manufacturers. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-33 33% 11% 0% 14% 19% 46% 14% 8% 10% 3% Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Processors (n=10) Poultry Feed Manufacturers (n=26) Financial Needs for SMEs Other capital investment for business expansion Working Capital for labour Working capital to buy raw materials and other supplies Marketing/distribution of products Leasing finance Figure 3-28: Financial Needs for SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Loans borrowed by fruits, vegetables and spice processors were used primarily to finance purchase of raw materials and distribution (marketing) of the processed products. For poultry feed manufacturers, borrowings were mainly used to finance purchase of raw materials, finance acquisition of equipment, machinery and other assets as well as finance other capital investments for business expansion19. 19 This included setting up of new branches, distribution points, storage and warehousing facilities. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-34 17% 17% 0% 33% 33% 24% 22% 18% 29% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Finance for equipment, machinery and othe assets Other capital investment for business expansion Working capital for labour Working capital to buy raw materials and other supplies marketing/distibution of products Usage of Loans Poultry Feed Manufacturers (n=22) Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Processors (n=3) Figure 3-29: Usage of Loans/Borrowed Funds amongst SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Unlike the case of loans, access and use of leasing services was very low. Majority (90%) of the fruits, vegetables and spice processors and 88% of the poultry feed manufacturers had never accessed leasing services. 10% 12% 90% 88% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Processors (n=10) Poultry Feed Manufacturers (n=26) Ever Accessed Leasing Services Yes No Figure 3-30: Access to Leasing Services Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-35 These results corroborate findings from the financial institutions and may imply that there is both low supply but also low demand for leasing services amongst SMEs. SMEs are also faced with similar challenges to those facing producers20 with regard to accessing finance. Major challenges for fruits, vegetables and spice processors were lack of sufficient loan collateral as well as high interest rates. Poultry feed manufacturers identified similar obstacles including high interest rates and long and cumbersome loan application appraisal processes, which also slowed down loan disbursements. 14% 36% 36% 19% 36% 38% 14% 4%2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Fruits & Vegetable/Spices Processors (n=10) Poultry Feed Manufacturers (n=26) Percentage SME Category Challenges in Accessing Finances for SMEs long and cumbersome application a appraisal process(Slow loan application, processing and disburs process) lack of sufficient loan collateral/str collateral requirements High loan interest rates charged The Maximum amount advanced t agribusiness SMEs is not enough Figure 3-31: Challenges in Accessing Finances by SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.3 Access to Training and Capacity Building 3.3.1 Access to Trainings amongst Producers Through the KASI Agriventures program, SEAF will establish a Center for Entrepreneurship and Executive Development (CEED) to provide technical assistance to poultry feed producers, fruit vegetable and spice processors, and other agribusiness SMEs as well as their suppliers and/or customers. In doing so, the program will result in increased capacity and knowledge of smallholder farmers involved in agricultural production. The baseline survey noted that access to trainings and extension services was very low. Within the last 1 year, only 27% of the fruits, vegetables and spice producers and 32% of the poultry producers had accessed to capacity building training opportunities. 20 Refers to producers of fruits, vegetables and spices as well as poultry, in the context of this report. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-36 27% 32% 73% 68 Percent of Producers that Accessed Training in th 1 Year Yes No Figure 3-32: Access to Training amongst Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 A wide variance was observed between the demand for trainings and the percentage of producers who had been trained. There still existing gaps in areas such as land preparation technologies, soil fertility management and diseases and pests control for fruits, vegetables and spices. For poultry producers, gaps exist for trainings on modern farming technologies. Table 3-33: Trainings Demanded and Offered to Producers Category of producer Type of training % of producers demanding the trainings % of producers trained Variance Fruits, Vegetables & Spices Producers Accounting/ book keeping 11% 4% 7% Land preparation technologies 61% 18% 44% Soil fertility management 49% 12% 37% Disease and pest control 49% 17% 32% Post-harvest handling 24% 0% 24% Marketing and negotiation skills 24% 0% 24% Application of new technology 22% 0% 22% Poultry Producers Pest, diseases and their control 34% 23% 11% Vaccination and treatment 33% 13% 19% Marketing 16% 13% 3% Poultry feeding routine 13% 3% 10% Modern poultry farming technologies 40% 0% 40% Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The major training and extension providers to producers were government extension staff, private extension staff and NGOs21 (Figure 3-33). 21 NGOs only for fruits, vegetables and spice producers SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-37 20% 25% 5% 25% 4% Providers of Training and Extension Service Producers Government Private extension staff NGO Figure 3-33: Major Providers of Training and Extension Services to Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Contact with the trainings and extension service providers were rather infrequent with majority of the producers interacting with providers on monthly or quarterly basis. 23% 30% 26% 14% 34% 8% 26% 11% Poultry Producers (n=61) Fruits, Vegetables and Spice producer (n=30) Frequency of Contact with Training and Extension Service Providers Weekly Monthly Quarterly Annually Irregularly Figure 3-34: Frequency of contact with Training and Extension Service Providers Amongst Producers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The key challenges limiting access to training and extension services amongst producers are summarized in Table 3-33 below. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-38 Table 3-34: Main Challenges in Accessing Training for Producers Category of producer Challenge Percentage of farmers facing the challenge N Fruits, Vegetables & Spice Producers Untimely trainings 23.4% 32 Inadequate expertise 21.2% 29 Poor choice of training language (English instead of Swahili) 17.5% 24 High training costs 12.4% 17 Poultry Producers Inadequate training time 19.4% 26 Inadequate extension services providers 15.6% 21 Poor organization amongst farmers 11.2% 15 Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.3.2 Access to Capacity Building amongst SMEs The baseline survey noted that access to trainings among fruits, vegetables and spice processors and poultry feed manufacturers is relatively high at 80% and 63% respectively (Figure 3.35). 80% 63% 20% 37% Percentage of SMEs that Received Training in the Last Months Yes No Figure 3-35: Access to Training amongst SME Employees Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 Improved processing technologies, product quality standards and marketing were the main training topics offered to employees of fruits, vegetables and spice processors interviewed in the baseline survey. For poultry feed manufacturers, feed manufacturing technologies and product quality standards management were the main training modules offered to their employees (Table 3-34). SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-39 As opposed to producers, smaller variances were observed with regard to supply and demand of capacity building amongst SMEs. Major gaps are on financial management training, product quality management, business planning and record keeping as well as marketing (Table 3-34) Table 3-35: Trainings Preferred and Offered to SMEs Category of SME Type of training % of SMEs demanding the trainings % of SMEs trained Variance Fruits, Vegetables & Spices Processors Improved processing technologies 60% 50% 10% Product quality standards management 80% 63% 18% Business planning 20% 13% 8% Record keeping 20% 25% -5% Financial management 30% 0% 30% Risk management 10% 13% -3% Marketing 40% 50% -10% Poultry Feed Manufactur ers Feed manufacturing technologies 62% 88% -27% Product quality standards management 65% 41% 24% Business planning 19% 12% 7% Record keeping 31% 6% 25% Financial management 42% 0% 42% Risk management 15% 0% 15% Marketing 35% 6% 29% Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The major training service providers to fruits, vegetables and spice processors and poultry feed manufacturers were private companies/individuals and NGOs/donor programs (Figure 3-36). These findings suggests that it will be important for CEED to liaise with companies, individual experts, NGOs and donor programs that are involved in providing training to fruits, vegetables and spice processors and poultry feed manufacturers in order to leverage the available expertise and experience. The majority of the fruits, vegetables and spice processors (64.7%) and poultry feed manufacturers (68%) interviewed in the survey accessed training services quarterly or less frequently (Figure 3-37). SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-40 5.0% 15.0% 5.0% 75.0% 13.3% 53.3% 6.6% 26 Government NGO/Donor Cooperative society Private Training Providers for SMEs Fruits &vegetables/ spices processors (n=10) Poultry feed manufacturers (n Figure 3-36: Major Providers of Training Services to SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 60.0% 50.0% 30.4% 73.9% 13.0% High Costs/Lack of funds Lack/unavailability of appropriate trainings/Information Time Factor Challenges in Accessing Training Services for SMEs Fruits &vegetables/ spices processors (n=10) Poultry feed manufacturers (n=27) Figure 3-37: Frequency of Training amongst SMEs Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 The main challenges for fruits, vegetables and spices processors and poultry feed manufacturers in accessing training services are lack/unavailability of appropriate trainings and lack of funds and high cost of training (Figure 3.38). SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-41 60.0% 50.0% 30.4% 73.9% High Costs/Lack of funds Lack/unavailability of Time Challenges in Accessing Training Services Fruits &vegetables/ spices processors (n=10) Poultry feed manufacturers (n=27) Figure 3-38: Main Challenges in Accessing Training for Fruits & Vegetables/Spices and Poultry Feed Manufacturers Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.3.3 Capacity Building for Financial Institutions One of the main activities of CEED is to provide training to the partner financial institution(s) employees on SME lease financing procedures, working capital finance and equipment leasing finance and/or operating capital leasing/lending procedures. CEED is also expected to provide training to the financial institution’s customers on leasing/borrowing procedures. According to the findings of the baseline survey, only a third (4 out of 12) of the financial institutions sampled had their employees trained in the last year (Figure 3.39). The financial institutions employees were mainly trained in agricultural lending procedures, risk management in agricultural finance, credit management and finance and auditing procedures (Table 3.30). Yes 33% No 67% Staff Members of Agribusiness Unit ever Accessed Train Last One Year (n=12) Figure 3-39: Access to Training amongst Financial Institutions Employees Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-42 The financial institutions sampled also indicated a lack of training in marketing, information management, product development and client management services (Table 3-35). Table 3-36: Current Training offered to Financial Institutions Employees and Preferred Training Needs by Financial Institutions Training Module Current Training Training Needs Agricultural lending procedures 60.0% 0.0% Risk management 40.0% 87.5% Marketing 0.0% 25.0% Credit management 20.0% 62.5% Information management 0.0% 25.0% Finance and auditing procedures 20.0% 12.5% Product development 0.0% 37.5% Client management services 0.0% 50.0% Source: KASI Agriventures Baseline Survey, 2015 3.4 Baseline Values for Program Indicators The KASI Agriventures program has a total of 64 performance indicators which are broadly categorized into three levels: goal, outcome and output. This section summarizes the baseline values for the KASI Agriventures program indicators based on the findings of the baseline survey. It also includes a review of the program indictors and their targets. These baseline values will be used as a basis for evaluating the performance of the program during the Life of Program (LOP) as well as for reviewing program targets where necessary. Recommendations have been made where the targets were found to be either too high or too low compared to the resultant baseline values. Recommendations have also been made on the indicators that should be rephrased, merged or deleted as found necessary. The summary of the resultant baseline values as per the PMP is presented in Table 3-36 below. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-1 Table 3-37: Baseline Values for Program Indicators No Indicators Unit of Measure Baseline Value LOP Targets Remarks/ recommended action on indicators SME Lending: Equipment Leasing Finance, Working Capital, and Term Loans 1. Number of loans disbursed as a result of USDA assistance Number of loans 0 Year Number There is a need to shift the target from 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. Based on recommendation from Indicator #2, we recommend increasing number of loans to 80. 2015 40 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 40 2. Value of loans provided as a result of USDA assistance USD Male=24,83 8 Female= 24,838 Year Male Female Total From the baseline survey, the average loan size provided by nonbank financial institutions to individuals (whether male or female) is USD 24,838. Since the program targets to disburse a total of 40 loans (30 male and 10 female as per indicator No. 4), these values will translate to totals of USD 745,140 for males and USD 248,830 for females respectively. These values are approximately half of the targeted values. Based on this finding, we recommend increasing the number of loans to 80 while retaining the proportions for male and female. There is, however, a need to shift the target from 2015 to 2016 because of delay in program activities. 2015 1,500,000 500,000 2,000,000 2016 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 LOP 1,500,000 500,000 2,000,000 Joint=0 Not applicable=0 Year Joint Not applicable Total These targets are a combination of both Male and Female. There is a need to shift the target from 2015 to 2016 because of delay in program activities. 2015 2,000,000 0 2,000,000 2016 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 LOP 2,000,000 0 2,000,000 3. Value of loan repayment by USD Male=0 Year Male Female Total There is a need to shift the target SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-2 agribusiness SMEs Female=0 2015 1,500,000 500,000 2,000,000 from 2015 to 2016 and 2017 because of delay in commencement of program activities and loan repayment may spread beyond one year. 2016 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 LOP 1,500,000 500,000 2,000,000 4. Number of individuals receiving financial services as a result of USDA assistance Number of entrepre neur borrower s Male=0 Female=0 Year Male Female Total There is a need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 30 10 40 2016 30 10 40 2017 30 10 40 LOP 30 10 40 5. Number of jobs attributed to USDA assistance (male) Loan officer at finance company Male=0 Female=0 Year Male Female Total The target for 2015 should be changed to zero (0) because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 1 1 2 2016 1 1 2 2017 1 1 2 LOP 1 1 2 6. Number of private enterprises, producers organizations, water users associations, women’s groups, trade and business associations, and community-based organizations (CBOs) that applied improved techniques and technologies as result of USDA assistance Number of organizati ons New=0 Continuing= 0 Year New Continuing Total There is a need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 2 0 2 2016 0 2 2 2017 0 2 2 LOP 0 2 2 Private enterprises (PE)=0 Producers organization s (PO)=0 Water users associations (WUA)=0 Women’s group (WG)=0 Trade and business associations (TBA)=0 Community Year PE PO W UA WG TB A CB O Total KASI Agriventures targets to invest in only 2 private enterprises (PE) i.e. an equipment leasing company and a financial institution that will provide working capital loans. Targets should therefore be set at 2 for PE as well as the LOP. Targets for all other organizations should be set at zero (0). 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2016 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LOP 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-3 -based organization s (CBO)=0 7. Annual profit margin of equipment leasing and working capital firm(s) as a result of USDA assistance (expressed as a percentage) Percentag e 0 Year Percentage There is need to move the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. The LOP target should also be adjusted to 7% from 12%. This is necessitated by delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 2 2016 5 2017 5 LOP 12 SME Investing: Poultry Feed Producer 8. Amount invested in SME poultry feed producer as a result of USDA assistance USD 0 Year Amount There is need to move this target to 2015 3,000,000 2016. 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 3,000,000 9. Number of weeks in which investment officer provided direct management support to poultry feed producer Time in weeks 0 Year Number of Weeks There is need to remove the targets for 2015. The LOP target should also be adjusted to 96 weeks from 144 weeks. This is necessitated by delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 48 2016 48 2017 48 LOP 144 10. Number of feed distribution nodes established as a result of USDA assistance Distribut ion nodes 2 Year Number From the baseline, each of the poultry feed manufacturer has an average of 2 distribution points, a target of 3 is therefore deemed reasonable. There is a need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 3 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 3 11. Volume of commodities sold by project beneficiaries MT Chick mash (CM)-292 Growers mash (GM)- 266 Layers mash Year CM GM LM BM P Total There is a need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. Since not all poultry feed manufacturers produce all 6 types of 2015 12,500 2016 25,000 2017 25,000 LOP 62,500 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-4 (LM)-265 Broilers mash (BM)- 277 Pellets (P)- 36 feed, it would be more accurate to set targets for each feed-type individually. Additionally, since SEAF may invest in a company that only manufactures some and not all of the feed-types, we recommend that the “total” column be removed. Suggested targets are as follows for 2016: 584 for CM, 532 for GM, 530 for LM, 554 for BM, and 72 for P. Suggested targets for 2017 are: 829 for CM, 756 for GM, 753 for LM, 787 for BM and 102 for P. New targets are based on expected/targeted increase in feed production output (See Indicators 21 and 23). 12. Number of feed producing companies screened for investment as a result of USDA assistance Number of compani es 0 Year Number This is a one-off indicator. The target is okay bearing in mind that only one company will be selected. This can however, be moved to 2016. 2015 5 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 5 13. Amount of principal and proceeds recovered from existing investment in poultry feed producer USD 0 Year Amount This target is reasonable as the amount comprises the budgeted principal amount of USD 3 Million and a 5% interest. 2015 0 2016 0 2017 3,150,000 LOP 3,150,000 14. Number of individuals who have applied new techniques or technologies as a result of USDA assistance Individua l poultry farmer New-0 Continuing￾0 Year New Continuing Total The targets are unreasonable. Given that the program will work with only one feed manufacturer, it is unlikely that one manufacturer will have a customer base of 8,000. Based on the calculations in Annex 5, a single SME has a reach of up to 3,755 customers per year. The recommended targets are therefore 4,000. Additionally, targets should also be 2015 8,000 0 8,000 2016 0 8,000 8,000 2017 0 8,000 8,000 LOP 8,000 8,000 8,000 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-5 redistributed to reflect delay in the start of program activities. Male- 0 Female-0 Year Male Female Total The targets should be reduced to a total of 4,000 per year with males being 1,700 and females 2,300. This is because from the baseline survey there were more female poultry farmers (about 57%) compared to male farmers (43%). There is also need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 6,000 2,000 8,000 2016 6,000 2,000 8,000 2017 6,000 2,000 8,000 LOP 6,000 8,000 8,000 Pest managemen t (PM)-23% Disease managemen t (DM)-13% Improved feeds (IF)- 3% Year PM DM IF Total Important to set annual targets for each technology. We propose distribution of targets for each technology based on the percentage of individuals trained on each technology as per the baseline values. 2015 0 2016 8,000 2017 8,000 LOP 8,000 15. Number of individuals who have received short-term agricultural sector productivity or food security training as a result of USDA assistance Individua l poultry farmer New- 0 Continuing￾0 Year New Continuing Total There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. Additionally, the targets should be in line with targets to indicator 14, if those targets are to be changed. We also recommend this target be shifted to the CEED section. 2015 8,000 0 8,000 2016 0 8,000 8,000 2017 0 8,000 8,000 LOP 8,000 8,000 8,000 16. Farmer revenue increases from improved chicken feed USD 13,148 Year Amount From the baseline survey, the average revenue for the farmer is approximately USD 13,150 per year. Based on this, there is a need to readjust the targets downwards. There is also need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in 2015 200,000 2016 400,000 2017 400,000 LOP 1,000,000 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-6 commencement of program activities. 17. Number of jobs attributed to USDA assistance Feed mill employe e Male-8 Female-2 Year Male Female Total Targets are reasonable, but there is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 9 3 12 2016 9 3 12 2017 9 3 12 LOP 9 3 12 18. Number of public-private partnerships formed as a result of USDA assistance (agricultural production) Public￾private partners hip 0 Year Number Targets are reasonable, but there is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 1 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 1 19. Value of sales by project beneficiaries USD Chick mash (CM)- 137,776 Growers mash (GM)- 108,200 Layers mash (LM)- 111,564 Broilers mash (BM)- 134,263 Pellets (P)- 10,884 Year CM GM LM BM P Total There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. Since not all poultry feed manufacturers produce all 6 types of feed, it would be more accurate to set targets for each feed-type individually. Additionally, since SEAF may invest in a company that only manufactures some and not all of the feed-types, we recommend that the “total” column be removed. Suggested targets for 2016 are as follows: USD 275,552 for CM, USD 216,400 for GM, USD 223,128 for LM, USD 268,526 for BM, and USD 21,768 for P. Suggested targets for 2017 are as follows: USD 391,317 for CM, USD 307,314 for GM, USD 316,869 for LM, USD 381,340 for BM, and USD 30,913 for P. These figures are based on expected/targeted annual production output (See indicators 21 and 23). 2015 6,750,000 2016 13,500,000 2017 13,500,000 LOP 33,750,000 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-7 20. Number of private enterprises, producers organizations, water users associations, women’s groups, trade and business associations, and community￾based organizations (CBOs) that applied improved techniques and technologies as result of USDA assistance Number of organizat ions New=0 Continuing= 0 Year New Continuing Total There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. KASI Agriventures targets to invest in only 1 private enterprise involved in poultry feed manufacturing. Targets for all other organizations have been set at zero (0). 2015 2 0 2 2016 2 2 2 2017 2 2 2 LOP 2 4 2 Private enterprises (PE)=0 Producers organization s (PO)=0 Water users associations (WUA)=0 Women’s group (WG)=0 Trade and business associations (TBA)=0 Community -based organization s (CBO)=0 Year PE PO WU A WG TBA CB O Total 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2016 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LOP 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 21. Amount of new animal feed available to farmers as a result of USDA assistance MT 1,008 Year MT There is a need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. From the baseline, the average volume sold by each SME is approximately 1,008 MT per SME per year. There is therefore need to revise the targets downwards given 2015 31,250 2016 62,500 2017 62,500 LOP 62,500 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-8 that the program targets to work with only one feed manufacturer. Suggested revised targets are 1,008 MT of new feed in 2016 (assumes manufacturer has maintained utilization capacity at 60% but doubled manufacturing capacity for a total output of approx. 2,016 MT per year); and a new target of 847 MT of new feed in 2017 (assumes manufacturer has maintained capacity but increased utilization rate to 85%) for a total production output of approx. 2,860 MT in 2017. 22. Annual profit margin of feed mill as a result of USDA assistance Percenta ge 0 Year Percentage There is need to readjust the targets so that 2016 becomes year 1 of implementation. 2015 4 2016 8 2017 8 LOP 8 23. Daily output of feed producer (in MT) as a result of USDA assistance MT 8.2 Year MT There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. Additionally, from the baseline, the average installed capacity was 13.7 MT while the utilized capacity is 8.2MT. The current targets are therefore very high and will need to be readjusted. Suggested revised targets are 16.4MT in 2016 (assumes investment will allow manufacturer to double their installed capacity while maintaining utilization rate of 60%) and 23.3 MT in 2017 (assumes an increase in utilization rate to 85%, while maintaining production capacity). 2015 4,000 2016 8,000 2017 8,000 LOP 8,000 24. Number of financially Number Year Percentage There is need to redistribute the SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-9 sustainable feed distributors linking feed producer with target area farmers. 2015 1 targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities 2016 3 2017 3 LOP 3 25. Number of farmers educated on use of new type of animal feed as a result of USDA assistance Individua l farmer 0 Year Number These targets are quite high and need to be reduced since KASI Agriventures will likely only invest in 1 feed manufacturer. Recommended targets for 2016 are 2,000 and 4,000 for 2017 based on calculations for indicator 14 (see Annex 5). There is also need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 4,000 2016 8,000 2017 8,000 LOP 8,000 SME Investing: Fruit, Vegetable, and Spices Processor 26. Amount invested in SME fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processor as a result of USDA assistance USD 0 Year Amount This target is reasonable as it reflects the amount that the program intends to invest in an SME involved in fruit, vegetable and/or spices processing, based on the current budget. The target should, however, be moved to 2016 to reflect the delay in the start of program activities. 2015 3,000,000 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 3,000,000 27. Number of weeks in which investment officer provided direct management support to fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processing facility Time in weeks 0 Year Number of Weeks There is need to remove the targets for 2015. The LOP target should also be adjusted to 96 weeks from 144 weeks. This is necessitated by delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 48 2016 48 2017 48 LOP 144 28. Volume of fruit, vegetables, and/or spice plants processed (in MT) as a result of USDA assistance MT Fruits =495.6 Vegetables =325.2 Spices=3.3 Year Total From the baseline survey, SMEs processed an average of 495.6 MT of fruits, 325.2 MT of vegetables and 3.3 MT of spices per year. Since SEAF intends to invest in only 1 SME involved in processing fruits, vegetable and/or spices, these 2015 7,500 2016 15,000 2017 15,000 LOP 15,000 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-10 targets are quite high. Since most SME processors in Tanzania are not involved with all three commodity types (fruit, vegetable and spices), it would be more accurate to set targets for each commodity individually. The targeted increase in the volume processed should align with increase in targets for production in indicator 42. 29. Number of farmers from whom the fruit, vegetable, and or/spice processor buys inputs Fruit, vegetable, or spice company New-0 Continuin g-1,541 Year New Continuing Total This target is unreasonable. Since only 1 processor will be selected for investment, it is unlikely that the processor will have a total of 10,000 individual farmers as suppliers of raw materials. From the baseline survey, SMEs involved in fruits, vegetables and spices processing buys inputs (raw materials) from 1,541 farmers on average. Larger SMEs on average, however, procure their raw materials from 3,225 farmers. Since SEAF will likely invest in a single relatively large processor or potentially two smaller processors, we recommend that this target be revised downwards to 5,000. Targets should also be redistributed due to the delay in the start of program activities. 2015 10,000 0 10,000 2016 0 10,000 10,000 2017 0 10,000 10,000 LOP 10,000 10,000 10,000 30. Number of fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processing companies screened for investment as a result of USDA assistance Fruit, vegetable, or spice company 0 Year Number This is a one-off indicator. The target is okay bearing in mind that only one company will be selected. Target should, however, be moved to 2016 2015 5 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 5 31. Volume of commodities sold MT Fruits- Year Fruit Veg Spice Total The set targets are relatively high as SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-11 by project beneficiaries 481.2 Vegetables -267.8 Spices-1.4 2015 2,500 they are approximately 4 times of the baseline values. Current values from the baseline are Fruits-481.2, Vegetables-267.8 and Spices-1.4. Suggested targets for 2016 are 500 MT for fruits, 280MT for vegetables and 2 MT for spices. There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. Since most SME processors in Tanzania are not involved with all three commodity types (fruit, vegetable and spices), it would be more accurate to set targets for each commodity individually. Additionally, since SEAF may invest in a company that processes only one or two of these commodities, we recommend that the “total” column be removed. 2016 5,000 2017 5,000 LOP 12,500 32. Total increase in installed storage capacity (dry or cold storage) as a result of USDA assistance MT Dry-0 Cold-0 Year Dry Cold Total Targets should be moved to 2016 2015 10 5 15 and 2017 2016 10 5 15 2017 0 0 0 LOP 30 33. Total increase in installed storage capacity (new or refurbished storage) as a result of USDA assistance MT New-0 Refurbishe d-0 Year New Refurbished Total Targets should be moved to 2016 2015 5 10 15 and 2017. 2016 0 15 15 2017 0 0 0 LOP 30 34. Number of jobs attributed to USDA assistance Fruit, vegetable, or spice company employee Male-0 Female-0 Year Male Female Total There is also need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to the subsequent years because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 8 2 10 2016 8 2 10 2017 8 2 10 LOP 8 2 10 35. Number of public-private Public- 0 Year Number There is need to redistribute the SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-12 partnerships formed as a result of USDA assistance (agricultural post-harvest transformation) private partnershi p 2015 1 targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 1 36. Value of new public and private sector investment leveraged as a result of USDA assistance Public￾private partnershi p Private-0 Public-0 Year Private Public Total There is need to redistribute targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 20,000 0 20,000 2016 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 LOP 20,000 0 20,000 37. Value of sales by project beneficiaries USD Fruits￾342,594 Vegetables -246,898 Spices￾30,081 Year Fruits Veg Spices Total There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities Additionally, since most SME processors in Tanzania are not involved with all three commodity types (fruit, vegetable and spices), it would be more accurate to set targets for each commodity individually. Suggested targets for 2016 are: 375,000 (Fruits), 280,000 (Vegetables), 35,000 (Spices); followed by a 10% increase in each of the following years. 2015 3,750,000 2016 7,500,000 2017 7,500,000 LOP 18,750,000 38. Number of private enterprises, producers organizations, water users associations, women’s groups, trade and business associations, and community￾based organizations (CBOs) that applied improved techniques and technologies as result of USDA assistance Number of organizati ons New=0 Continuin g=0 Year New Continuing Total The target assumes that the program will invest in only one private enterprise (PE) and that this PE will apply improved technologies and techniques for fruit, vegetable and/or spices processing. There is however, need to move the target from 2015 to 2016. 2015 1 0 1 2016 0 1 1 2017 0 1 1 LOP 1 1 1 Private enterprise s (PE)=0 Producers organizati ons Year PE PO WUA WG TB A CBO Tota l The target assumes that the program will invest in only one private enterprise (PE). We thus recommend zero targets for all the other types of organizations. 2015 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LOP 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-13 22 Baseline values are based on value of commodities sold by farmers regardless of where sold 23 These values are calculated based on quantities purchased by SMEs as raw materials (PO)=0 Water users associatio ns (WUA)=0 Women’s group (WG)=0 Trade and business associatio ns (TBA)=0 Communit y-based organizati ons (CBO)=0 39. Value of commodities purchased from fruit, vegetable, and/or spice farmers as a result of USDA assistance USD 22Fruits￾152,303 Vegetables -176,639 Spices￾15,02023 Year Fruits Veg Spices Total Since most SME processors in Tanzania are not involved with all three commodity types (fruit, vegetable and spices), it would be more accurate to set targets for each commodity individually. Suggested targets for 2016 are 155,000, 180,000 and 15,500 for fruits, vegetables and spices respectively. Targets will increase by 10% in each of the following years. 2015 5,500,000 2016 10,500,000 2017 10,500,000 LOP 26,500,000 40. Annual profit margin of fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processor as a result of USDA assistance (expressed Percentag e 0 Year Percentage The LOP target should be 8 because it is not a cumulative indicator There is also need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 2015 4 2016 8 2017 8 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-14 as a percentage) LOP 20 because of delay in commencement of program activities 41. Percentage increase in processing capacity of fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processor as a result of USDA assistance Percentag e 0 Year Percentage According to the baseline study, the average installed capacities are as follows: fruits - 2.5MT/day, vegetables - 3.1MT/day and spices - 0.02 MT/day. Utilized capacities as measured by daily output are as follows: fruits - 2.14 MT/day, vegetables - 2.83 MT/day and spices - 0.01MT/day. Given these values, the utilization rates are therefore, 85.6% for fruits, 91.3% for vegetables and 50% for spices. It may be unlikely to substantially increase the utilization rates for fruits and vegetables further although the utilization rates for spices can be increased. These targets are therefore deemed reasonable as increased production can only be achieved through increased capacities. There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 25 2016 50 2017 50 LOP 50 42. Daily output of fruit, vegetable, or spice producer (in MT) as a result of USDA assistance MT Fruits = 2.14 MT/day; vegetables =2.83 MT/day; spices =0.01MT/ day Year Output Given that SMEs involved in fruit, vegetable or spice processing have varying daily outputs, we recommend disaggregating the targets by commodity type (i.e. Fruits, Vegetables, Spices) According to the baseline study, daily output is as follows: for fruits is 2.14 MT/day, for vegetables is 2.83 MT/day and for spices is 0.01MT/day. We suggest that targets for daily output be increased by 5% 2015 30 2016 60 2017 60 LOP 60 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-15 in 2016 and 10% in year 2017. 43. Percentage of fruits, vegetables, and/or spices processed that meet international food safety and packaging standards as a result of USDA assistance. Percentag e 0 Year Percentage Given that most (79%) of the horticultural products are currently marketed locally; (meaning that only 21% is marketed internationally) it may be unrealistic to target that 90% of all produce will be sold internationally. We recommend that the 2016 target by 30% and increased to 50% at LOP. 2015 45 2016 90 2017 90 LOP 90 44. Volume of fruit, vegetable, and/or spice products that meet international export standards as a result of USDA assistance MT 1,059 Year Volume Assuming the 21% that is currently marketed internationally meet international standards, this translates to an average of 1,059 MT per SME. Since the program targets to work with 1 SME, there is a need to lower the targets. The LOP targets can be increased by up to 50% as suggested in indicator No. 43. There is also a need redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 5,625 2016 11,250 2017 11,250 LOP 28,125 45. Reduction in farmers' wastage of fruits, vegetables, and/or spices as a result of USDA assistance Percentag e 0 Year Percentage Rather than capture the percentage of wastage, we recommend measuring the percentage increase in the number of farmers that are selling to processors. According to the baseline survey, only 3% of smallholder farmers sold their produce directly to processors (or their agents). Recommended percentage increase at the LOP are an increase to 5% in 2016 and to 10% in 2017. There is also need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 45 2016 90 2017 90 LOP 90 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-16 46. Number of fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processing facilities implementing international food safety and packaging standards as a result of USDA assistance Fruit, vegetable, or spice processor 0 Year Number This target is reasonable as it is based on the fact that the program will only invest in 1 SME. There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 1 2016 1 2017 1 LOP 1 47. Number of new countries to which fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processor exports its products as a result of USDA assistance Individual country 2 Year Number There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. From the baseline, major export markets were only for vegetables and spices to the EU - mainly Belgium and Ireland. Given these findings, the targets of 6 and 12 countries seem very high. It should be noted that horticultural commodities meant for export are particular to specific countries (target markets). We recommend that the target for first year is set to 3, which would then increase to 5 at LOP. 2015 6 2016 12 2017 12 LOP 12 Establish a Center for Entrepreneurship and Executive Development 48. Number of individuals given SME agribusiness management training Individual entrepren eur New-0 Continuin g-0 Year New Continuing Total There is a need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 25 0 25 2016 25 20 45 2017 25 40 65 LOP 25 40 65 49. Number of leasing finance company employees trained in SME leasing finance procedures Leasing finance company employee New-0 Continuin g-0 Year New Continuing Total There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 5 0 5 2016 0 5 5 2017 0 5 5 LOP 5 5 5 50. Number of working capital finance company employees trained in SME leasing finance procedures Working capital finance company New-0 Continuin g-0 Year New Continuing Total There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 5 0 5 2016 0 5 5 2017 0 5 5 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-17 employee LOP 5 5 5 51. Number of leasing finance company customers trained in leasing/ borrowing procedures Leasing finance company customer 0 Year Number There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 20 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 20 52. Number of working capital finance company customers trained in leasing/ borrowing procedures Working capital finance company customer 0 Year Number There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 20 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 20 53. Number of training sessions in business management conducted for agribusiness SMEs Training session 0 Year Number The current targets suggest an average of 2 training sessions per month on average. From the baseline survey, majority of the training to agribusiness SMEs are on quarterly basis or less frequently, i.e. fruits, vegetables and spice processors (64.7%) and poultry feed manufacturers (68%). Based on these findings, we think this is too high, we recommend that the targets be reduced to at most 12 per year which would imply increasing the frequencies of trainings currently available to at least one per month. Additionally, given the delay in the start of program activities, we suggest 2016 targets are set at 6 and 2017 at 12. 2015 24 2016 24 2017 24 LOP 72 54. Number of training sessions in lease finance conducted for local finance companies Training session 0 Year Number The current targets suggest an average of 2 training sessions per month on average. From the baseline survey, majority (85.7%) of the training to financial institutions employees are held on quarterly basis or less frequently. Based on these findings, we think that the current targets are too high. We 2015 24 2016 24 2017 24 LOP 72 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-18 recommend that the targets be reduced to at most 12 per year which would imply increasing current frequencies of trainings to an average of one session per month. Further, given the delay in the start of program activities, we suggest 2016 targets are set at 6 and 2017 at 12. 55. Number of training sessions in leasing/borrowing procedures conducted for agribusiness SMEs and entrepreneurs Training session 0 Year Number The targets suggest an average of 2 training sessions per month on average. From the baseline survey, majority of the training to agribusiness SMEs occur on a quarterly basis. Based on this, we think the target is too high recommend that the target for the first 12 months after the start of program activities be reduced to 12, which translates to an average of one training session per month. Additionally, given the delay in the start of program activities, the target should be adjusted to 6 trainings in the remainder of 2016 and 6 in 2017. 2015 24 2016 0 2017 0 LOP 24 56. Number of financial firms trained on equipment leasing finance and/or operating capital leasing/lending procedures targeting SME agribusinesses as a result of USDA assistance Individual financial firm 0 Year Number These targets seem reasonable. 2015 0 2016 1 2017 2 LOP 3 Business and Technical Mentorship: Poultry Feed and Fruit Producer, Vegetable, and Spice Processor 57. Number of international standards taught to managers of fruit, vegetable, and or spice processors Internatio nal standard New-0 Continuin g-0 Year New Continuing Total Rather than capture the "number of standard taught", we recommend capturing the "number of managers taught on different international standards" There is also need to redistribute 2015 10 0 10 2016 0 10 10 2017 0 10 10 LOP 10 10 10 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-19 the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 58. Number of in person mentoring engagements between managers of fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processor and business and/or technical advisors from multinational corporations Corporate mentoring engageme nt 0 Year Number There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 4 2016 3 2017 2 LOP 9 59. Number of in person mentoring engagements between managers of feed producer and business and/or technical advisors from multinational corporations Corporate mentoring engageme nt 0 Year Number There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 4 2016 3 2017 2 LOP 9 60. Number of international retail standards met as a result of USDA assistance Internatio nal standard 0 Year Number We recommend that this indicator be removed since retail standards vary depending on product being exported and countries/regions to which they are being exported. 2015 10 2016 20 2017 20 LOP 20 61. Number of international companies to which fruit, vegetable, and/or spice processor sells its value￾added outputs as a result of USDA assistance Individual internatio nal company 2 Year Number There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 1 2016 2 2017 2 LOP 2 Overall Program 62. Total number of individuals benefiting directly as a result of USDA assistance Individuals Male-0 Female-0 Year Male Female Total Targets needs to be revised downwards to reflect the likely number of SMEs, and thereby smallholder farmers, with which KASI Agriventures will work. This will be the combined number of beneficiaries for lease financing (80), poultry (4,000) and FVS (5,000) which is 9,080 There is need to redistribute the 2015 13,530 4,510 18,040 2016 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 LOP 18,040 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 3-20 targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 63. Total number of individuals benefiting directly as a result of USDA assistance Individuals New-0 Continuin g-0 Year New Continuing Total Targets needs to be revised downwards to reflect the likely number of SMEs, and thereby smallholder farmers, with which KASI Agriventures will work. This will be the combined number of beneficiaries for lease financing (80), poultry (4,000) and FVS (5,000) which is 9,080 There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 18,040 0 18,040 2016 0 18,040 18,040 2017 0 18,040 18,040 LOP 18,040 64. Total number of individuals benefiting indirectly as a result of USDA assistance Individuals 0 Year Number This target assumes that each direct beneficiary or member of a household (as in Indicator 62 or 63) will indirectly benefit 5 household members; where the average household size in Tanzania is 7. This assumption is deemed reasonable as it assumes that 70% of the household members will benefit indirectly. The targets should therefore be 5 times the direct beneficiaries in Indicator No. 62 and 63. The recommended target is therefore be 45,400. There is need to redistribute the targets for 2015 to 2016 because of delay in commencement of program activities. 2015 90,200 2016 90,200 2017 90,200 LOP 90,200 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 4-1 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4.1 Conclusions 4.1.1 Conclusions on Agricultural Production and Marketing The KASI Agriventures program targets fruits, vegetables and spices value chains. Pineapples were the most commonly produced fruits at 49% followed by mangoes at 23%, and lastly passion fruits by bananas 2.3% of respondents. Tomatoes were the most commonly produced vegetables at 50%, followed by onions (19%), green pepper (18 %) and carrots at 7.6%. Only a few respondents produced target spices with paprika being produced by 38% and vanilla by 13%. Total annual volumes of fruits, vegetables and spices sold by sampled respondents in the last one year averaged 10.3 MT for fruits, 25.6 MT for vegetables and 1.3 MT of spices. Fruits, vegetables and spice producers marketed approximately sold approximately 3.4 tons of fruits, 8.5 tons of vegetables and 0.6 tons of spices. However, these were marketed in raw form with limited access to higher end markets (such as processors and exporters), a majority of the producers sold their products to retailers in the local24 markets. Markets were also unstable as only 7.6% sold their products through contractual arrangements with most of the arrangements being under informal (non-written) contracts. The KASI Agriventures program also aims to improve productivity of the poultry value chain by increasing access to quality feed for poultry producers. Currently, majority (76%) of producers rear improved breeds of poultry, with their poultry stocks increasing over time. Purchase of poultry feeds is frequent, with majority of producers (44%) buying feed on a weekly basis primarily from feed manufacturers and retailers. The frequency of purchase implies that there is high demand for poultry feed but may also point to the fact that producers purchase feeds in smaller quantities albeit more frequently. Within the last one year, poultry producers purchased an average of 23.3 tons of feeds valued at USD11,486. Poultry producers marketed various products including mature birds, eggs and chicks. In return, poultry producers earned an average of USD.13,148. Sale of hen comprised the biggest share of the marketed value while manures contributed the least. Similar to fruits, vegetables and spice producers, fewer poultry producers accessed higher-end markets such as wholesalers, large off takers, supermarkets and hotels. This may be as a result of lack of organized marketing, since the majority of the poultry producers sold individually instead of in a consortium or group. 4.1.2 Conclusions on Post-Production Processing and Marketing The KASI Agriventures program targets to increase the quantity and the value of products produced and sold by fruits vegetables and spice processors as well as by poultry feed manufacturers. Fruits, vegetables and spice processors mainly bought raw materials directly from individual smallholder farmers which corroborates the findings that producers mainly sold 24 Local market means near the producers’ own villages or towns SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 4-2 their products as individuals instead of as a collective group. However, processors also bought from farmer groups and associations. On average, each SME involved in processing of fruits purchased an average of 1,404 tons of raw materials per year valued at USD 72,336 annually. Fruits were mainly processed into juices, pulp or canned while vegetables were mainly processed into dried vegetables, sauces and canned vegetables. Spices were mainly dried and ground into powders or sold as liquid extracts. Within the last year, each of the fruits, vegetables and spice processors sold an average of 48.2 tons of fruits and fruit products valued at USD 342,594, 267.8 tons of vegetable products valued at USD 246,900 and 1.4 tons of spices valued at approximately USD 30,080. The majority (79%) of fruits, vegetables and spice processors sold their products in the domestic market. On average, each SME involved in poultry feed manufacturing procured 236 tons of raw materials mainly from aggregators, wholesalers and middlemen. These were used to produce an average of 85.7 tons of assorted feeds per month. Each poultry feed manufacturer sold an average of 1,008 tons of feed valued at USD 434,316. All of these animal feeds was sold in the domestic market. Findings on the major market outlets points out the importance of distributors, who are used by feed manufacturers to take their product to market. Feed manufacturers played a major role not only in supplying feeds to producers but also other services. These included supply of drugs and vaccines, day old chicks, poultry equipment and tools, and extension services from feed manufacturers. The feed manufacturers also noted that competition from low quality but cheaper feeds was a major challenge. This particular challenge presents a gap that the KASI Agriventures program is designed to address. 4.1.3 Conclusions of Financial Services Amongst the financial products supplied by community banks and non-bank financial institutions in Tanzania, were short-term lending products, agricultural asset financing and leasing. On average, agricultural portfolios as a percentage of the total portfolios were approximately 22.3% valued at USD1.45 million. However, financial institutions still considered agricultural lending to be relatively risky with a total of 16% of the agricultural portfolio (USD 231,843 on average) being at risk. Majority of the loan clients for non-bank financial institutions were either associations/co￾operatives or groups with corporate clients making up the smallest portion of the clientele. The high number of group based loans is consistent with the group based lending approaches which are preferred by smaller financial institutions. While the low number of corporate clients may indicate a low preference to lend to corporate clients, it may also suggest that community banks and non-bank financial institutions are unable to service large corporate clients, who ordinarily require larger loan sizes than individuals or groups. KASI Agriventures program targets fruits, vegetables and spices as well as poultry value chains. But as expected, the baseline survey noted that non-bank financial institutions mostly financed cereals, vegetables and pulses in that order. This is because cereals and pulses are also the major categories of value chains that are produced by majority of Tanzanians. However, fruits SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 4-3 and vegetables/spice as well as poultry provide major opportunities for financing as they are considered commercial products. Demand for financial services amongst producers was low as indicated by low rates of borrowing among producers. Only 31% of the poultry keepers and 14% of the fruits, vegetables and spices producers had ever borrowed loans. Low rates of borrowing were, however, associated with unfavorable terms and conditions set by financial institutions. Demand for financial institutions amongst SMEs was higher, with the majority borrowing to fund raw materials supplies and stocks. In comparison, rates of borrowing amongst SMEs was lower for fruits, vegetables and spice processors at only 30% compared to 77% for SMEs engaging in poultry feed manufacturing. On average, SMEs involved in fruits, vegetables and spice processing borrowed loans valued at USD 10,230 while those involved in manufacturing of poultry feeds borrowed an average of USD 19,210. However, preference for sources of borrowing varied. While most of the producers preferred using their own savings or borrowing from informal sources such as friends and family members and savings groups, SMEs preferred commercial banks. Only 18% of the fruit, vegetables and spice producers and 21% of the poultry producers had borrowed from community banks or non-bank financial institutions. Preference by SMEs to borrow from community banks or non￾bank financial institutions was low at only 5% for poultry feed manufacturers and 0% for fruits, vegetables and spice processors. This may point to the need for the KASI Agriventures to consider including commercial banks in the program but may also point on the need to strengthen the target financial institutions so that they are able to offer the necessary products and increase their market share. With regard to leasing, the major assets financed included plant and machinery, industrial and farm equipment as well as vehicles. However, supply and demand of lease financing products was very low for both producers and SMEs. This presents a gap which the KASI Agriventures program can fill in by facilitating increased access to leasing services. 4.1.4 Conclusions on Capacity Building Services Access to training and extension services amongst producers was low. Only 27% of fruits, vegetables and spice producers and 32% of poultry producers had accessed training and extension services in the last year. This was mainly associated with inadequate supply of training providers. The major training and extension providers to producers were government extension staff, private extension staff and NGOs. However, contact with the trainings and extension service providers were rather infrequent, with majority of the producers interacting with providers on monthly basis or longer intervals. In comparison, access to capacity building amongst SMEs was relatively high at 80% for fruits, vegetables and spices processors and 63% for poultry feed manufacturers. Improved processing technologies, product quality standards and marketing were the main training offered to staff of vegetables, fruits and spice processors. For poultry feed manufacturers, feed manufacturing technologies and product quality standards management were the main training modules offered. The primary training service providers to SMEs were private companies/individuals and SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 4-4 NGOs/donor programs. These findings suggests that it will be important for CEED to liaise with companies, individual experts, NGOs and donor programs that are involved in providing training to SMEs. 4.2 Recommendations The following recommendations are made from the baseline survey: • With regard value chains, the program may need to look at value chains that were found to be commonly produced in the target regions. This will increase the chances of the program meeting its set targets especially on volumes and values; • With regard to marketing, the program will need to consider organizing producers into groups. This will help in accessing higher end markets as the aggregation will result in higher volumes that will appeal to buyers. This will also encourage market reliability by seeking contractual arrangements with buyers. Organized groups can also be used to coordinate capacity building activities. Since farmer organization is not a key component of the KASI Agriventures program, the program may consider working with partners such as TAHA an TAFMA to identify already organized groups; • With regard to provision of financial services, the program may need to consider inclusion of commercial banks since they have a wider outreach and were used as preferred sources of borrowing by both producers and SMEs. In the absence of commercial banks, the KASI Agriventures program will need to increase the number of community banks and non-bank financial institutions involved in the program with special considerations for outreach within the target regions; • With regard to program performance indicators, the baseline survey recommends that some of the program targets may need to be revised or redistributed. Recommendations for each of the indicators are contained in Table 3.31. SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 5-1 5 ANNEXES ANNEX 1: TERMS OF REFERENCE ANNEX 2: SAMPLING FRAME FOR THE BASELINE SURVEY SEAF SAMPLING FRAME.doc ANNEX 3: DATA COLLECTION TOOLS NB: DOUBLE CLICK TO OPEN SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 5-1 ANNEX 5: CALCULATIONS FOR REFERENCED INDICATORS Capacity Increase Estimation: Current 1008 MT per year Yr 1 Utilization Rate 60% Current Production 8.2 MT per day Yr 2 Utilization Rate 85% Current Capacity 13.7 per day Current utilization rate 60% Daily Production Multiple 123 Indicator 23 Indicator 21 Post-Investment Capacity Output Feed output per year New Feed Produced per Year % change from previous year End Yr. 1 (assume capacity is doubled with new machinery from investment) 27.4 16.4 2,016 1,008 100% End Yr 2 (capacity is NOT doubled, but utilization rate is increased) 27.4 23.29 2,863 847 42% VALUE OF SALES BY FEED MILLERS- INDICATORS 11 AND 19 Total number of SMEs surveyed 26 Output Sold No. of SMEs selling % of sampled SMEs selling Quantity Sold (Tons), per SME Average Price per Ton (USD) Value of Output Sold (USD) Yr. 1 -- Indicator 19 (increase in value of sales based on increase in output capacity) Yr. 2 -- Indicator 19 (increase in value of sales based on increase in output capacity) Yr 1 -- Indicator 11 (increase in volume of sales based on increase in output capacity) Yr 2 -- Indicator 11 (increase in volume of sales based on increase in output capacity) Broilers Mash (Starter & Finisher) 26 100% 277 484 134,263 268,526.00 381,339.67 554.00 786.75 Chick Mash 22 85% 292 471 137,776 275,552.00 391,317.44 584.00 829.35 Growers Mash 24 92% 266 407 108,200 216,400.00 307,314.39 532.00 755.50 Layers Mash 26 100% 265 421 111,564 223,128.00 316,868.97 530.00 752.66 Pellets 1 4% 36 302 10,884 21,768.00 30,913.21 72.00 102.25 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 5-2 CALCULATION FOR NUMBER OF BENEFICIARIES- POULTRY - INDICATORS # 14,15,25 TOTAL NUMBER OF BENEFICIARIES FROM POULTRY FEED ACTIVITY Hardcoded inputs Number of farmers per region according to poultry type Region Layers Broilers Total Arusha 556 512 1,068 Kilimanjaro 4,200 1,096 5,296 Morogoro 966 1,394 2,360 Pwani (Coast) 894 553 1,447 Dar Es Salaam 1,742 535 2,277 Iringa 2,303 477 2,780 Mbeya 3,351 2,054 5,405 Total 14,012 6,621 20,633 Source: Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics based on 2007/2008 figures, published 2012 Average Quantity Purchased per Year (KG) by farmers Feed type Quantity Chick mash 1,476 Growers mash 3,486 Layers mash 3,384 Broilers mash 3,870 Broilers pellets 1,440 Source: SEAF-KASI Baseline Study Total Amount of Feed Demand per Region (KG) Region Layer Mash Broiler Mash Arusha 1,881,504 1,981,440 Kilimanjaro 14,212,800 4,241,520 Morogoro 3,268,944 5,394,780 Pwani (Coast) 3,025,296 2,140,110 Dar Es Salaam 5,894,928 2,070,450 Iringa 7,793,352 1,845,990 Mbeya 11,339,784 7,948,980 Source: SEAF-KASI Baseline Study Country-wide annual production per SME Feed Manufacturer Layer Mash Broiler Mash Annual Average Production per SME 265,200 292,400 SEAF-KASI AGRIVENTURES BASELINE SURVEY REPORT - FEBRUARY 2016 5-3 4841-7752-4783, v. 1