This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by NORC at the University of Chicago. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. DRG IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/MALI JUSTICE PROGRAM MEMORANDUM ON INITIAL RESULTS FROM ENDLINE SURVEY March 2019 Prepared under Contract No.: GS-10F-0033M / AID-OAA-M-13-00013, Tasking N032 DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH ACTIVITY DRG IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/MALI JUSTICE PROGRAM MEMORANDUM ON INITIAL RESULTS FROM ENDLINE SURVEY (MARCH 2019) Prepared under Contract No.: GS-10F-0033M / AID-OAA-M-13-00013, Tasking N032 Submitted to: Brandy Witthoft, USAID COR Submitted by: Matthew S. Winters Jeff Conroy-Krutz Contractor: NORC at the University of Chicago 4350 East West Highway, 8th Floor Bethesda, MD 20814 Attention: Renée Hendley Tel: 301- 634-9489; E-mail: Hendley-Renee@norc.org DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | i TABLE OF CONTENTS I. SUMMARY 1 II. IMPACT EVALUATION IMPLEMENTATION 3 III. ANALYSIS 7 (1) Awareness In Lower-Population Villages 13 (2) Awareness In Villages With CSO Reports On Meetings 16 (3) Treatment Effects For Knowledge Index 17 IV. DISCUSSION 18 (1) Limited Reach Of The Information Sessions 19 (2) Limited Time Between Baseline, Campaign, And Endline 21 (3) Non-Adherence To Randomization Schedule 21 (4) Disjuncture Between Description of Meetings Used By Csos And Question Wording 22 (5) Improper Survey Data Collection 22 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Reported Attendance at First Theme Training Session. From 44 CSO reports. Depending on CSO, the first training session might either have been one of two for the first theme or else it was a combined double session for the theme. ........ 7 Figure 2. Distribution of 2009 Population in Study Villages. Population data from 2009 census. ..................................................................................................................................... 14 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Number of Villages in the Study by CSO Partner. ......................................................... 4 Table 2. Planned and Actual Deployment by CSO Partner. Dates for meeting conduct reflect incomplete reporting from the CSOs. ................................................................. 6 Table 3. Awareness of public information meeting. From endline household survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?” ....................................................................................... 9 Table 4. Awareness of a public information meeting about the judicial sector. From endline household survey; asked only among those who said that there had been a public information meeting (i.e., “yes” answers in Table 3). “Can you tell me if any of these public information meetings addressed the topic of the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?”................................................................................ 9 Table 5. Attendance at public information meetings about the judicial sector. From endline household survey; asked only among those who said that there had been a public information meeting and that it was about the judicial sector (i.e., “yes” answers in Table 3 and then in Table 4). “Did you attend any of these meetings about the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?” ............................................ 10 Table 6. Awareness of public information meeting among village elites. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?”............................................................... 11 Table 7. Awareness of public information meeting among village heads. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?”............................................................... 11 Table 8. Awareness of public information meeting among women’s group leaders. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?”........................................ 12 Table 9. Awareness of public information meeting among youth group leaders. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?”........................................ 12 Table 10. Awareness of a public information meeting about the judicial sector among village elites. From endline elite survey; asked only among those who said that there had been a public information meeting (i.e., “yes” answers in Table 6). “Can you tell me if any of these public information meetings addressed the topic of the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?” ................................................... 13 Table 11. Awareness of meetings in villages with 2009 population below 1,000. From endline surveys. Population numbers come from 2009 census data and therefore do not precisely reflect current population levels. ...................................................... 15 Table 12. Awareness of meetings in villages with population below 1,000 (2009/2018 data). From endline surveys. Population numbers come from 2009 census data plus reports from village heads for villages where 2009 census data did not exist. ..... 16 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | iii Table 13. Awareness of meetings in treatment villages for which we have CSO reports. From endline surveys. .......................................................................................................... 16 Table 14. Questions Included in Knowledge Index. ....................................................................... 17 Table 15. Treatment Effects for Knowledge Index. Difference-in-means test for 12-item knowledge index across respondents from treatment and control villages. ......... 18 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 1 I. SUMMARY As part of the DRG Learning, Evaluation, and Research (DRG-LER) Activity, USAID requested NORC to design and implement an impact evaluation of USAID/Mali’s Justice Sector Program. The purpose of the USAID Justice Program in Mali is to support the Government of Mali’s goal of more efficient, effective, and competent Malian justice sector institutions that are accountable and responsive to the needs of Malians. The project aims to work with the formal and informal justice sectors by improving the institutional capacities of key justice sector institutions such as the National Direction of Justice Administration (DNAJ). As with other current USAID/Mali programming, a central objective of the program is to increase citizen confidence in state institutions, which has been low since the 2012 coupe helped to reveal significant corruption and underperformance in government institutions, including within the court system and other justice sector institutions. In the context of USAID/Mali work with DNAJ to improve its performance and the performance of courts that it oversees, the impact evaluation seeks to understand how informing Malians about reforms and planned improvements in justice sector institutions affects their attitudes toward and interactions with state institutions. In particular, does information about formal sector institutions change people’s willingness to engage with those institutions? Specifically, primary research questions include:  Does providing information and transparency of justice sector reforms increase citizens’ trust in the legal system?  Does providing and transparency of the court system lead to increased use by citizens of formal legal institutions?  Does providing information about judicial performance have additional effects beyond just providing general information? Based on initial ideas developed during the DCHA/DRG Learning Clinic held March 23-27, 2015, in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and further developed during two scoping trips to Mali which took place between July 27 and August 7, 2015 and between May 21 and May 25, 2018, the evaluation team for this assessment devised an impact evaluation of a public information campaign conducted by four civil society organizations (ADENORD, APDF, CRADE, and WILDAF) supported through the USAID/Mali Justice Project. The information campaign consisted of two pairs of meetings focused on the subjects of (a) the overall organization of the formal judicial sector, and (b) inheritance law. MJP and the CSOs developed the curriculum for the meetings based on the MJP-produced document Justice Explained to Malians: 100 Fact Sheets for Understanding the Law (La justice expliquée aux Maliens: 100 fiches pratiques pour comprendre le Droit). For the impact evaluation, 187 villages listed by the four CSOs were randomly assigned to either receive (treatment) or not receive (control) the information campaign after a baseline evaluation survey was conducted and before an endline evaluation survey. The survey firm GISSE conducted a baseline household survey in all 187 villages over the period September 17 – October 8, 2018. The information campaign led by the CSOs began immediately following the conclusion of survey enumeration in the 94 villages assigned to treatment. GISSE conducted a non-panel endline household survey in the same 187 villages USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 2 over the period November 7-24, 2018. At both baseline and endline, GISSE surveyed 10 households per village. In addition to the household surveys, GISSE collected baseline and endline panel data from village elites, aiming to survey up to four elites per village. In nearly all villages, GISSE interviewed the village head, a women’s group leader, and a youth group leader at both baseline and endline. In both the household and elite endline surveys, we asked a set of questions about respondents’ awareness of public information meetings. In the overall household data, we find no difference between treatment and control areas in terms of awareness of meetings held in the villages in the last six weeks. For one of the four CSOs, there is a statistically significant difference in the wrong direction (i.e., respondents in control villages are more likely to report the presence of public information meetings). When we ask the respondents who said that they were aware of meetings whether those meetings concerned the judicial sector, we find that most respondents think that they were not about the judicial sector, although respondents in treatment areas are somewhat more likely to say that they were. Among village elites, we find an increased likelihood of responses that there were public information meetings in treatment villages relative to control villages. In the overall data, elites in treatment villages are 10 percentage points more likely than elites in control villages to say that there had been public information meetings in the last six weeks in their village. Nonetheless, the total percentage of elites in treatment villages saying that there had been meetings is only 62 percent. When looking only at the village heads, these numbers are essentially identical: 65 percent of village heads in treatment villages said that there had been an information campaign, and this is 10 percentage points greater than the proportion saying that in control villages. As with the household data, estimates continue to be in the wrong direction (i.e., they suggest a greater prevalence of information meetings in control villages) for one of the four CSO partners. When asked whether the information meetings were about the judicial sector, village elites who previously said that there had been a meeting were equally likely to say that it was about the judicial sector across treatment and control villages, and the proportion of elites saying that the meetings were about the judicial sector is only 18 percent. These results are unchanged if we look at the set of villages with the smallest estimated populations, where we would ex ante expect to see greater elite or mass public awareness of the information campaign. We explore the most basic possible outcome of the information campaign – a change in knowledge levels – and find no difference on a 12-item knowledge index between treatment and control villages in an intent-to-treat analysis. Given these disappointing findings about awareness of the information campaign and the spread of the basic information contained in the campaign, we conclude that we are unlikely to find additional evidence of the effectiveness of the information campaign. We review a set of possible explanations for why we do not observe more awareness of the information campaign: (1) limited reach of the information sessions; (2) limited time for information diffusion; (3) non-adherence to the randomization schedule; (4) a disjuncture between the description of the meetings used by the CSOs and our survey question wording; and (5) improper survey data collection. We are not able to identify a single explanation for the lack of campaign awareness and the lack of impact. We are most persuaded by the first and third possibilities: that the information sessions were more limited in scope than what the USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 3 evaluation team had envisioned in designing the evaluation and/or that the CSOs did not strictly adhere to the randomization schedule. This memorandum proceeds by (1) describing the impact evaluation process, (2) presenting in more detail the results described in this summary, and (3) providing some possible interpretations of the results. II. IMPACT EVALUATION IMPLEMENTATION Members of the USAID/Mali mission and a member of the evaluation team jointly developed the idea to conduct an impact evaluation of an information campaign in the context of the Mali Justice Program during the DCHA/DRG Learning Clinic held March 23-27, 2015, in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The evaluation team undertook an initial scoping trip from July 27 - August 7, 2015, meeting with government and civil society representatives in order to better understand the state of the formal justice sector in Mali and to think about appropriate measurement of the effectiveness of an information campaign. At the time of this initial scoping trip, USAID was in the process of awarding the MJP contract. The evaluation team presented the research design to USAID/Mali mission leadership and submitted an impact evaluation design to NORC on August 25, 2015, and then submitted a revised version on October 14, 2015. After the MJP contract was awarded to Checchi and Company Consulting, one member of the evaluation team traveled to Bamako on January 14, 2016, for a meeting with representatives from the MJP and USAID/Mali staff. Because of subsequent deterioration of the security situation in Mali and the evacuation of USAID/Mali personnel, it was unclear if the impact evaluation would proceed. In the spring of 2018, conversations among the evaluation team, USAID/Mali personnel, and MJP staff resumed, culminating in a second scoping trip over the period May 21-25, 2018. During this scoping trip, the evaluation team met with USAID/Mali personnel, MJP personnel, and representatives from the four CSO grantees that were to conduct the information campaign. Subsequent to this trip, the evaluation team circulated revised impact evaluation designs on July 16, 2018, and September 11, 2018. NORC issued an RFP for data collection in June 2018. The evaluation team and representatives from NORC discussed the relative merits of the seven bids submitted in response to the RFP. NORC contracted GISSE in August 2018 to conduct the survey data collection. In early June 2018, MJP provided the evaluation team with four lists of villages – one from each of the participating CSO grantees. Table 1 describes the number of villages in each CSO’s list. MJP and the evaluation team agreed on an implementation timeline in which the evaluation team would select half of the listed villages to be treatment villages; the survey firm would conduct a baseline survey in all villages; the CSOs would immediately conduct the information campaign in treatment villages only; the survey firm would conduct an endline survey in all villages; and the CSOs would only then proceed to conduct the information campaign in the control villages. USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 4 Members of the evaluation team traveled to Mali for the period September 9-22, 2018, meeting with representatives from MJP and working with GISSE to finalize the survey instruments and train the survey enumerators. In developing the enumeration plans, GISSE discovered eight village names on the initial lists that either did not correspond to a single extant village or else would not be appropriate for the study.1 MJP consulted with the CSO partners and obtained replacement villages for all eight entries on the original list of villages. Table 1. Number of Villages in the Study by CSO Partner. CSO PARTNER (REGIONS) NUMBER OF VILLAGES IN INITIAL LIST NUMBER OF VILLAGES REPLACED NUMBER OF VILLAGES ASSIGNED TO TREATMENT ADENORD (Taoudénit) 14 3 7 APDF (Kayes; Koulikoro: Dioila cercle) 122 1 62 CRADE (Gao) 25 0 13 WILDAF (Koulikoro: Kati and Koulikoro cercles) 26 4 12 Total 187 8 94 GISSE began enumeration of the baseline survey on September 17, 2018. In each village, GISSE used a random walk method, dividing the village into two areas, using a landmark in each area as a starting point, and then using a daily direction and skip pattern to select households. At the household level, the enumerator solicited a list of residents age 18 or older and then randomly selected either a male or a female eligible respondent, alternating between genders from house to house. The evaluation team conducted the random assignment of villages to treatment on October 2, 2018. To reduce the risk of spurious correlation between treatment status and village location, the evaluation team stratified treatment assignment on cercle (the geographic unit below the region). The information campaign was to be implemented only by one CSO in each cercle in the study. Therefore, this stratification also ensures a balance of treatment and control villages within the lists provided by each CSO. GISSE concluded baseline household survey enumeration on October 8, 2018, and baseline elite survey enumeration on October 9, 2018. Of 2,006 households approached, 1 In Taoudénit, one village was actually a salt mine with only male workers in residence, another was a duplicate name for a village already on the list, and a third was no longer inhabited. In Koulikoro, one village name corresponded to two different villages; this same issue existed in Kati, while another two village names from Kati did not correspond to existing villages. One village in Kayes was a duplicate name for a village already on the list. USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 5 enumerators obtained lists of potential respondents at 1,984 (99%), began 1,923 interviews, and completed 1,903 interviews (96% of contacted households).2 The MJP distributed the randomization list to the CSOs and asked them to develop deployment plans. MJP provided deployment plans for the CSOs over the period October 11-17, 2018. The evaluation team checked that the deployment plans followed treatment assignment. In response to questions raised by the evaluation team about the number of information sessions per village, CRADE submitted a revised deployment plan. Likewise, the evaluation team identified a number of ways in which ADENORD’s plan deviated from the revised village list, leading ADENORD to revise its deployment plan. The formatting of the APDF document made some of the training dates unclear, and APDF submitted a revised document. As the CSOs conducted the information sessions, they sent reporting sheets to MJP. In some cases, the CSOs passed along the sign-in sheets from the meetings, listing the date/time, location, and participants for each training session; in other cases, they sent summary documents. MJP passed the reporting sheets that it received along to the evaluation team. The evaluation team has reporting sheets for 52 of the 94 villages assigned to treatment. For ADENORD, CRADE, and WILDAF, we have some information for all of the villages assigned to treatment; for APDF, we have information only for 20 out of the 42 villages assigned to be treated by APDF. For 45 villages, the reporting sheets provide information on all four sessions that were supposed to take place (although in a number of cases two thematic sessions were combined into a single meeting, a deviation from the initial implementation plan for the information campaign).3 For the seven villages in Koulikoro cercle to be covered by WILDAF, the reporting sheets provide a number of attendees but provide neither a breakdown by the four sessions that were to be held nor a date on which any sessions took place. Even within the reporting sheets that did provide full information, the evaluation team identified a number of discrepancies. While CRADE provided reporting information for all 48 sessions run in the 12 villages assigned to treatment under its purview, 18 of these sheets had a mismatch between the total number of participants listed on the form and the number of signatures on the form. Sign-in sheets for one village were initially sent with attendees listed in order by age, and then revised sheets were sent. For WILDAF reporting, there were discrepancies between summary sheets that the CSO submitted and attendance forms: attendance numbers do not match, often by large margins, and the dates are not the same on the summary sheet as on the attendance forms. The evaluation team also has another eight reporting sheets – all provided by APDF – that do not appear to correspond to treatment villages. One of these sheets is for a village 2 As the list of villages included in the study changed while GISSE was conducting the baseline survey, the baseline survey includes data from one village not included in the final list of villages participating in the information campaign. 3 For two villages, the names are approximate matches, and we are not certain that they are the same villages that were included in the deployment plan. USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 6 assigned to the control condition, representing a clear violation of the randomization. The other seven villages were not included in the original village listing that APDF sent and therefore not included in the deployment plan. As mentioned in the footnote above, an additional two reporting sheets have village names that are approximate matches, and the evaluation team is considering these as correctly treated villages. In response to some of the reporting sheets, the evaluation team asked questions about the implementation of the training sessions. As mentioned above, the evaluation team discovering a number of cases where two training sessions were conducted within a single meeting. The evaluation team discovered another case where the names of attendees from one training session were exactly repeated in the reporting sheet for another training session. CRADE described this latter instance as “a mix-up from the officer filling up the form.” In trying to understand the surprising results that we present below, the evaluation team requested on December 13, 2018, that MJP collect additional information about implementation of the information campaign from the CSOs. MJP provided responses from APDF and CRADE on December 22, 2018. We refer to this information in the final section of the report. Based on the incomplete set of reporting sheets, the earliest information session took place on October 14, 2018, and the last took place on November 3, 2018. For the 44 first￾session meetings on the first theme where we can identify the date, the reporting sheets indicate that between 9 and 56 people attended the sessions; the median was 23, and the average was 29. The distribution is summarized in Figure 1. As many of the sessions specifically recruited women, the average number of women in attendance is 18. Seven sessions featured only women and no men at all. Only one session featured exclusively men. Table 2. Planned and Actual Deployment by CSO Partner. Dates for meeting conduct reflect incomplete reporting from the CSOs. CSO Partner (Regions) Earliest Planned Meeting Latest Planned Meeting Earliest Conducted Meeting Latest Conducted Meeting ADENORD (Taoudénit) 10/19/18 11/3/18 10/22/18 11/3/18 APDF (Kayes; Koulikoro: Dioila cercle) 10/19/18 11/3/18 10/31/18 11/2/18 CRADE (Gao) 10/14/18 10/31/18 10/14/18 10/31/18 WILDAF (Koulikoro: Kati and Koulikoro cercle) 10/16/18 10/29/18 10/21/18 11/1/18 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 7 Figure 1. Reported Attendance at First Theme Training Session. From 44 CSO reports. Depending on CSO, the first training session might either have been one of two for the first theme or else it was a combined double session for the theme. GISSE began collection of the endline surveys on November 7, 2018, shortly after the completion of the last information session. Household survey enumeration lasted through November 24, 2018, and elite survey enumeration lasted through November 27, 2018. At endline, of 1,973 households approached, enumerators obtained a list of eligible respondents at 1,939 (98%) and obtained 1,872 respondents from those households (96.5% of contacted households). GISSE provided all survey data to the evaluation team by November 27, 2018. The evaluation team checked the GPS coordinates recorded by the survey tablets against maps of Mali and found that they were consistent with where survey enumeration was supposed to take place.4 For the village elite data, GISSE was able to recontact all but six of the original 673 elites in the survey (< 1% attrition). Of the 667 endline interviews, 24 (3.6%) were conducted by phone. There was perfect consistency between baseline and endline data in terms of the socio-demographic characteristics of these elites (e.g., they all reported the same age, education, religion, and language at both baseline and endline). This perfect consistency is somewhat surprising – normally one would expect some over-time variation in responses (e.g., about age or language spoken at home) attributable to respondent uncertainty or data￾entry errors. III. ANALYSIS 4 In the case of 10 villages in Taoudénit, the surveys were conducted on paper because of concerns about the use of electronic tablets in the villages. The GPS coordinates for those surveys therefore correspond to the location of data entry rather than the location of survey enumeration. 10 20 30 40 50 60 Adults Attending First Theme Training Session Attendance at Training Session USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 8 Upon receiving the data, the first set of analyses that the evaluation team conducted used a set of questions asked at the end of the endline surveys at both the household level and the elite level. The first of these questions asked, “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?” Among the set of respondents who answered in the affirmative, a follow-up question asked, “Can you tell me if any of these public information meetings addressed the topic of the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?” And among the set of respondents who answered in the affirmative to that question, another follow-up question asked about their own attendance at the meetings: “Did you attend any of these meetings about the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?” We did not collect data about attendance at meetings in other sectors. The rates of answering the initial question in the affirmative were far lower than expected in the treatment villages. As can be seen in Table 3, 33 percent of respondents in treatment villages said that there had been a public information meeting in the village in the last six weeks. While on the face of it, one-in-three people being aware of a public information campaign might not be a bad outcome, this number is indistinguishable from the proportion of respondents in control villages reporting that there had been a public information meeting. Table 3 also shows the levels of awareness in treatment and control villages across the four CSOs. The differences for CRADE and APDF are in the expected direction but are relatively small. The difference for ADENORD is in the wrong direction (i.e., nearly twice as many respondents from control villages report that there had been a public information meeting in the last six weeks), and the distribution of responses for this CSO only is statistically significantly different across treatment and control villages. Among the set of respondents – in both treatment and control villages – who said that there had been information meetings, we asked them if the meetings had been about the judicial sector or inheritance rights. Overall, only 18 percent of the respondents in the treatment villages who said that they had heard about information meetings say that those information meetings were about the judicial sector. This is higher than the proportion of respondents in the control villages who say that they heard about meetings, and the distributions are different from each other to an extent that meets marginal levels of statistical significance. Across the different CSOs, we see that there is a significant difference for respondents in APDF’s control and treatment villages in their likelihood of saying that the meetings of which they were aware were about the judicial sector, although the proportion of respondents in treatment villages identifying the information meetings with which they were familiar as having been about the judicial sector is only 11 percent. In the villages covered by CRADE, respondents familiar with information meetings were more likely to say that they had to do with the judicial sector, but we find this is true for both treatment and control villages, such that the patterns of responses to this question are not distinguishable from one another across the two sets of villages. In Taoudénit, the region covered by ADENORD, respondents are more likely to say that the meetings that they were aware of were about the judicial system, although the small number of villages in this region means that the distributions are not statistically distinguishable across the treatment and control villages. In Table 5, we explore whether or not those respondents who had said that they were aware of meetings that were about the judicial sector had attended those meetings. In treatment villages, 56 percent of the 57 respondents who told us that they were aware of meetings and that those meetings had been about the judicial sector said that they attended USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 9 the meetings. In control villages, this proportion is less at 43 percent, yet because of the very small numbers of respondents answering this question, those differences are not statistically significant in the overall data. Table 3. Awareness of public information meeting. From endline household survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.32 (N=301) 0.33 (N=309) 0.28 (N=37) 0.33 (N=39) 0.31 (N=187) 0.34 (N=212) 0.34 (N=44) 0.32 (N=41) 0.47 (N=33) 0.24 (N=17) No 0.55 (N=514) 0.53 (N=496) 0.42 (N=54) 0.38 (N=46) 0.62 (N=373) 0.57 (N=352) 0.44 (N=57) 0.38 (N=50) 0.42 (N=30) 0.69 (N=48) Don’t Know 0.12 (N=116) 0.14 (N=136) 0.30 (N=39) 0.29 (N=35) 0.07 (N=40) 0.09 (N=57) 0.22 (N=29) 0.30 (N=39) 0.11 (N=8) 0.07 (N=5) Χ 2 p < 0.38 p < 0.78 p < 0.10 p < 0.37 p < 0.01 Table 4. Awareness of a public information meeting about the judicial sector. From endline household survey; asked only among those who said that there had been a public information meeting (i.e., “yes” answers in Table 3). “Can you tell me if any of these public information meetings addressed the topic of the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.12 (N=37) 0.18 (N=57) 0.49 (N=18) 0.51 (N=20) 0.03 (N=5) 0.11 (N=23) 0.02 (N=1) 0.10 (N=4) 0.39 (N=13) 0.59 (N=10) No 0.81 (N=245) 0.74 (N=228) 0.32 (N=12) 0.33 (N=13) 0.91 (N=171) 0.82 (N=173) 0.95 (N=42) 0.88 (N=36) 0.61 (N=20) 0.35 (N=6) Don’t Know 0.06 (N=19) 0.08 (N=24) 0.19 (N=7) 0.15 (N=6) 0.06 (N=11) 0.08 (N=16) 0.02 (N=1) 0.02 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.06 (N=1) Χ 2 p < 0.07 p < 0.92 p < 0.01 p < 0.34 p < 0.12 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 10 Table 5. Attendance at public information meetings about the judicial sector. From endline household survey; asked only among those who said that there had been a public information meeting and that it was about the judicial sector (i.e., “yes” answers in Table 3 and then in Table 4). “Did you attend any of these meetings about the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.43 (N=16) 0.56 (N=32) 0.33 (N=6) 0.40 (N=8) 0.20 (N=1) 0.83 (N=19) 0.00 (N=0) 0.25 (N=1) 0.69 (N=9) 0.40 (N=4) No 0.57 (N=21) 0.44 (N=25) 0.67 (N=12) 0.60 (N=12) 0.80 (N=4) 0.17 (N=4) 1.00 (N=1) 0.75 (N=3) 0.31 (N=4) 0.60 (N=6) Χ 2 p < 0.23 p < 0.68 p < 0.01 p < 0.58 p < 0.17 In Table 6, we look at the elite endline data, beginning with the question about whether or not any public information meetings had taken place. In these data, we do find more variation in awareness of information meetings. In the treatment villages, 62 percent of our elite sample answer that there had been meetings; in the control villages, however, there is still a high level of 51 percent of elite respondents saying that there had recently been a public information meeting. For CRADE and APDF, this difference is somewhat larger at 14 and 16 percentage points, respectively, and among the elites from the villages within APDF’s domain, the distributions of responses are statistically distinguishable from each other. As in the household-level data, among ADENORD villages, there appears to be more awareness of information meetings in control villages. When we look only at village heads (Table 7), women’s group leaders (Table 8), or youth group leaders (Table 9), the results are generally parallel: in the overall data and for CRADE and APDF, there is always more awareness of public information meetings in the treatment villages. For WILDAF, among the village heads, the findings are reversed, with more awareness of information meetings in control villages, and this unexpected pattern remains consistent in ADENORD’s villages across all three types of elites. When we ask those elites who said that they were aware of information meetings about whether or not those meetings had to do with the judicial sector, we find approximately equal proportions of respondents in control and treatment villages saying that they were (Table 10). And the levels of respondents saying that they were referring to judicial sector information meetings is quite low in both APDF and WILDAF’s areas, although much higher in CRADE’s area and somewhat in between in ADENORD’s area. These findings exactly parallel those found in the household surveys (Table 4). USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 11 Table 6. Awareness of public information meeting among village elites. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.51 (N=169) 0.62 (N=211) 0.63 (N=33) 0.77 (N=36) 0.42 (N=87) 0.58 (N=128) 0.72 (N=36) 0.78 (N=39) 0.59 (N=13) 0.38 (N=8) No 0.45 (N=149) 0.35 (N=119) 0.27 (N=14) 0.19 (N=9) 0.56 (N=115) 0.40 (N=87) 0.22 (N=11) 0.20 (N=10) 0.41 (N=9) 0.62 (N=13) Don’t Know 0.03 (N=11) 0.02 (N=8) 0.10 (N=5) 0.04 (N=2) 0.01 (N=3) 0.02 (N=5) 0.06 (N=3) 0.02 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) Χ 2 p < 0.02 p < 0.33 p < 0.01 p < 0.56 p < 0.17 Table 7. Awareness of public information meeting among village heads. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.56 (N=52) 0.65 (N=61) 0.77 (N=10) 0.83 (N=10) 0.47 (N=28) 0.63 (N=39) 0.77 (N=10) 0.69 (N=9) 0.57 (N=4) 0.43 (N=3) No 0.43 (N=40) 0.35 (N=33) 0.23 (N=3) 0.17 (N=2) 0.52 (N=31) 0.37 (N=23) 0.23 (N=3) 0.31 (N=4) 0.43 (N=3) 0.57 (N=4) Don’t Know 0.01 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.02 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) Χ 2 p < 0.31 p < 0.69 p < 0.14 p < 0.66 p < 0.60 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 12 Table 8. Awareness of public information meeting among women’s group leaders. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.38 (N=35) 0.51 (N=48) 0.54 (N=7) 0.67 (N=8) 0.27 (N=16) 0.44 (N=27) 0.54 (N=7) 0.77 (N=10) 0.71 (N=5) 0.43 (N=3) No 0.57 (N=52) 0.46 (N=43) 0.23 (N=3) 0.25 (N=3) 0.73 (N=43) 0.53 (N=33) 0.31 (N=4) 0.23 (N=3) 0.29 (N=2) 0.57 (N=4) Don’t Know 0.05 (N=5) 0.03 (N=3) 0.23 (N=3) 0.08 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.03 (N=2) 0.15 (N=2) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) Χ 2 p < 0.19 p < 0.60 p < 0.05 p < 0.27 p < 0.28 Table 9. Awareness of public information meeting among youth group leaders. From endline elite survey. “To the best of your knowledge, have there been any public information meetings in this village in the last six weeks?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.51 (N=47) 0.66 (N=61) 0.54 (N=7) 0.75 (N=9) 0.46 (N=27) 0.67 (N=40) 0.69 (N=9) 0.77 (N=10) 0.57 (N=4) 0.29 (N=2) No 0.47 (N=43) 0.28 (N=26) 0.38 (N=5) 0.17 (N=2) 0.54 (N=32) 0.28 (N=17) 0.23 (N=3) 0.15 (N=2) 0.43 (N=3) 0.71 (N=5) Don’t Know 0.02 (N=2) 0.05 (N=5) 0.08 (N=1) 0.08 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.05 (N=3) 0.08 (N=1) 0.08 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) Χ 2 p < 0.03 p < 0.48 p < 0.01 p < 0.89 p < 0.28 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 13 Table 10. Awareness of a public information meeting about the judicial sector among village elites. From endline elite survey; asked only among those who said that there had been a public information meeting (i.e., “yes” answers in Table 6). “Can you tell me if any of these public information meetings addressed the topic of the judicial system or inheritance rights in Mali?” OVERALL CRADE (GAO) APDF (KAYES AND KOULIKORO) WILDAF (KOULIKORO) ADENORD (TAOUDÉNIT) C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.18 (N=30) 0.18 (N=39) 0.58 (N=19) 0.61 (N=22) 0.03 (N=3) 0.09 (N=12) 0.08 (N=3) 0.05 (N=2) 0.38 (N=5) 0.38 (N=3) No 0.80 (N=135) 0.79 (N=167) 0.39 (N=13) 0.36 (N=13) 0.97 (N=84) 0.88 (N=113) 0.92 (N=33) 0.92 (N=36) 0.38 (N=5) 0.63 (N=5) Don’t Know 0.02 (N=4) 0.02 (N=5) 0.03 (N=1) 0.03 (N=1) 0.00 (N=0) 0.02 (N=3) 0.00 (N=0) 0.03 (N=1) 0.23 (N=3) 0.00 (N=0) Χ 2 p < 0.99 p < 0.96 p < 0.09 p < 0.55 p < 0.30 (1) AWARENESS IN LOWER-POPULATION VILLAGES As the extent to which the visibility of the information meetings depends on the size of the villages in the study, we repeated these analyses looking only at the smallest villages in the sample. The most recent comprehensive population data in Mali come from the 2009 census. Given the turmoil that the country has seen, there are good reasons to be skeptical of these numbers, but they are the most comprehensive numbers that we have to work with. The census contains population numbers for 172 of the 187 villages in the study. As might be expected, nine of the missing data points are from Taoudénit, a region in the north of the country formed out of Timbuktu in 2012; three are in Gao, one in Kayes, and two in Koulikoro. For those villages where the 2009 population data were not available, GISSE contacted the village heads to get population numbers, giving us a secondary dataset that contains a mix of 2009 census population numbers and 2018 village-head-reported population numbers. We primarily subset the data based on the 2009 census numbers but also use the mixed data below. Figure 2 shows the distribution of villages by their 2009 population. Around half of the villages – 44 percent – had a 2009 population of less than 1,000 residents; one out of five had a 2009 population of less than 500 residents. USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 14 Figure 2. Distribution of 2009 Population in Study Villages. Population data from 2009 census. In Table 11, we rerun several of the analyses above using only villages with a 2009 population below 1,000 people. The results are unchanged. In the household data, there is no meaningful distinction between treatment and control villages in terms of awareness of public information meetings, and relatively few people (although twice as many in treatment villages) say that the meetings of which they were aware were about the judicial sector. Among elites, there is a greater distinction between treatment and control villages in terms of the likelihood of elites saying that there had been a public information meeting in the last six weeks, yet among those who said that there were meetings, only around one in 10 say that the meetings were about the judicial sector, and meeting-aware elites in the control villages are as likely as meeting-aware elites in the treatment villages to say that the meetings were about the judicial sector. In Table 12, we expand the scope of the “small villages” subset slightly and report the results for the first four outcome variables using villages with a population estimate of less than 1,000 residents based either on the 2009 data or else reports from the village head.5 For the household data, the results parallel those based on using only the 2009 census data to distinguish small villages: there is no difference in awareness of public information meetings between treatment and control villages but a distinction in the likelihood of reporting that the meeting was about the judicial sector among those who said that they had 5 Note that GISSE updated the population data for two villages in Taoudénit that were listed in the 2009 census. For Agouni village in Bouzebha cercle, the population was updated from 1,500 to 1,750, and so it enters into neither Table 11 nor Table 12. For Tindjambane village in Taoudénit cercle, the population was 694 in the 2009 census, whereas the village head reported it as 1,815 to GISSE; data from this village, therefore, is included in Table 11 but not Table 12. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Frequency 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Pop 2009 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 15 been aware of a meeting. In this subset, we also see greater distinction in meeting attendance among those who report having been aware of a judicial sector meeting. This difference is driven by one village from Taoudénit which is found in the first table but not the second and where four respondents reported attending the meeting. Table 11. Awareness of meetings in villages with 2009 population below 1,000. From endline surveys. Population numbers come from 2009 census data and therefore do not precisely reflect current population levels. HOUSEHOLD DATA: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING HOUSEHOLD DATA: MEETING WAS ABOUT THE JUDICIAL SECTOR HOUSEHOLD DATA: ATTENDED MEETING ELITE DATA: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING ELITE DATA: MEETING WAS ABOUT THE JUDICIAL SECTOR C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.31 (N=115) 0.33 (N=126) 0.06 (N=7) 0.13 (N=16) 0.71 (N=5) 0.88 (N=14) 0.41 (N=50) 0.58 (N=74) 0.12 (N=6) 0.11 (N=8) No 0.62 (N=228) 0.57 (N=219) 0.90 (N=103) 0.83 (N=105) 0.29 (N=2) 0.13 (N=2) 0.56 (N=68) 0.40 (N=51) 0.88 (N=44) 0.88 (N=65) Don’t Know 0.07 (N=27) 0.09 (N=36) 0.04 (N=5) 0.04 (N=5) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.02 (N=3) 0.02 (N=3) 0.00 (N=0) 0.01 (N=1) Χ 2 p < 0.41 p < 0.22 p < 0.35 p < 0.05 p < 0.70 VILLAGE HEADS: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING VILLAGE HEADS: MEETING WAS ABOUT JUDICIAL SECTOR WOMEN’S LEADERS: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING YOUTH LEADERS: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING C T C T C T C T Yes 0.54 (N=20) 0.66 (N=25) 0.05 (N=1) 0.04 (N=1) 0.33 (N=12) 0.39 (N=15) 0.35 (N=13) 0.62 (N=23) No 0.46 (N=17) 0.34 (N=13) 0.95 (N=19) 0.96 (N=24) 0.64 (N=23) 0.58 (N=22) 0.62 (N=23) 0.32 (N=12) Don’t Know 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.03 (N=1) 0.03 (N=1) 0.03 (N=1) 0.05 (N=2) Χ 2 p < 0.30 p < 0.88 p < 0.86 p < 0.04 USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 16 Table 12. Awareness of meetings in villages with population below 1,000 (2009/2018 data). From endline surveys. Population numbers come from 2009 census data plus reports from village heads for villages where 2009 census data did not exist. HOUSEHOLD DATA: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING HOUSEHOLD DATA: MEETING WAS ABOUT THE JUDICIAL SECTOR HOUSEHOLD DATA: ATTENDED MEETING ELITE DATA: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING ELITE DATA: MEETING WAS ABOUT THE JUDICIAL SECTOR C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.31 (N=110) 0.31 (N=134) 0.03 (N=3) 0.17 (N=23) 0.33 (N=1) 0.74 (N=17) 0.41 (N=48) 0.54 (N=77) 0.08 (N=4) 0.14 (N=11) No 0.62 (N=223) 0.60 (N=257) 0.93 (N=102) 0.78 (N=105) 0.67 (N=2) 0.26 (N=6) 0.56 (N=66) 0.44 (N=63) 0.92 (N=44) 0.84 (N=65) Don’t Know 0.08 (N=27) 0.09 (N=40) 0.05 (N=5) 0.04 (N=6) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.03 (N=3) 0.02 (N=3) 0.00 (N=0) 0.01 (N=1) Χ 2 p < 0.63 p < 0.01 p < 0.16 p < 0.12 p < 0.44 Table 13. Awareness of meetings in treatment villages for which we have CSO reports. From endline surveys. HOUSEHOLD DATA: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING HOUSEHOLD DATA: MEETING WAS ABOUT THE JUDICIAL SECTOR HOUSEHOLD DATA: ATTENDED MEETING ELITE DATA: AWARENESS OF ANY MEETING ELITE DATA: MEETING WAS ABOUT THE JUDICIAL SECTOR C T C T C T C T C T Yes 0.32 (N=301) 0.29 (N=151) 0.12 (N=37) 0.32 (N=48) 0.43 (N=16) 0.52 (N=25) 0.51 (N=169) 0.64 (N=119) 0.18 (N=30) 0.28 (N=33) No 0.55 (N=514) 0.54 (N=280) 0.81 (N=245) 0.63 (N=95) 0.57 (N=21) 0.48 (N=23) 0.45 (N=149) 0.34 (N=63) 0.80 (N=135) 0.71 (N=84) Don’t Know 0.12 (N=116) 0.17 (N=89) 0.06 (N=19) 0.05 (N=8) 0.00 (N=0) 0.00 (N=0) 0.03 (N=11) 0.03 (N=5) 0.02 (N=4) 0.02 (N=2) Χ 2 0.05 0.01 0.42 0.03 0.13 (2) AWARENESS IN VILLAGES WITH CSO REPORTS ON MEETINGS We also find generally consistent patterns when we limit the definition of a treated village to the set of villages for which we received reports from the CSOs. In Table 13, the treatment USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 17 group is defined as villages assigned to treatment for which we received a report from the CSO saying that a training related to the first of the two themes had taken place on a specific date. The control group remains the same. (Note that this alternative definition of the treatment group undoes the randomization in the sense that we do not know what the appropriate set of counterfactual units in the control group is (i.e., the villages in the control group for which the CSOs would have returned reports had they been assigned to treatment).) As in the previous tables, household respondents report public information meetings at equal rates (with around 30 percent in both groups saying that there had been such meetings in the past six weeks). Among those who report awareness of public information meetings in the last six weeks, those in the treatment villages are significantly more likely to say that they were about the judicial sector (32 percent versus 12 percent, as compared to 18 percent the total set of control villages in Table 4). The proportion of those who report that the meeting about which they were aware was a judicial sector meeting and said that they attended the meeting is approximately the same in this subset of treatment villages as in the overall set of treatment villages (52 percent in Table 13 versus 56 percent in Table 5). Among elites, the patterns are similar. There is no difference in awareness of public information meetings across this subset of treatment villages as compared to the control villages: the 64 percent of village elites who say that there was a meeting in the last six weeks is about the same as the 62 percent in the overall treatment sample (Table 6). These elites, however, are somewhat more likely to say that the meetings were about the judicial sector: 28 percent in the trimmed treatment sample in Table 13 versus 18 percent in the overall treatment sample in Table 10. (3) TREATMENT EFFECTS FOR KNOWLEDGE INDEX To begin looking at outcomes, we examine the outcome most likely to have been influenced by the information meetings: respondents’ basic knowledge about the judicial sector and inheritance law. Table 14 lists the 12 questions based on the information sessions that were including in the endline survey. The correct answer is included in brackets. Enumerators recorded if the respondent provided a correct answer, an incorrect answer, said that they did not know, or refused to answer the question. We created a simple additive index of correct answers to these questions, giving respondents one point for each correct answer. Table 14. Questions Included in Knowledge Index. 1. Can you tell me the name of the court that has the final say over decisions made by all of the courts in the Malian court system? [Supreme Court] 2. Thinking about the Malian court system, do you know what the principal of collegiality is? [panels of [three] judges try cases] 3. Can you name any of the courts with special jurisdictions that exist in the Malian court system? [any of commercial courts, administrative courts, courts for children, courts of labor, or military courts] 4. If a business wanted to challenge the amount of taxes that it was paying, do you know to what type of court it would go? [administrative courts] 5. Is there a difference between a magistrate and a judge? [no] USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 18 1. Can you tell me the name of the court that has the final say over decisions made by all of the courts in the Malian court system? [Supreme Court] 6. Who represents you in a court of law if you bring a case to court? [a lawyer] 7. Who keeps the records of the court? [the clerk (greffier)] 8. In what court can you appeal rulings made by the Court of First Instance? [Court of Appeals] 9. If a person dies, and there is a dispute among their relatives over the inheritance, where will the court with jurisdiction over the case be located? [in the place where the deceased had his home or in the place where the deceased died] 10. What are some grounds for a court excluding a challenge to an inheritance? [the petitioner killed the person who gave the inheritance or the petitioner has committed slander against the deceased] 11. What's the name of the document in which one describes how they want their belongings to be distributed after they die? [a will] 12. What law determines issues of inheritance? [the Family Code] Table 15 reports a difference-in-means test across treatment and control villages for the knowledge index. Respondents in treatment villages performed no better (and perhaps somewhat worse) on the 12-item index than did respondents in control villages. Both had quite low levels of knowledge. One-third of the sample answered none of the questions correctly; another one-third answered only one question correctly. Even at the high end of the scale, respondents who scored well on the scale were evenly distributed between treatment and control villages: among the 68 people who scored 10 or better, 35 were located in control villages and 33 in treatment villages. Table 15. Treatment Effects for Knowledge Index. Difference-in-means test for 12-item knowledge index across respondents from treatment and control villages. KNOWLEDGE INDEX (0…12) Treatment 1.63 (0.08) N=941 Control 1.75 (0.08) N=931 Difference -0.13 (0.11) p < 0.28 IV. DISCUSSION USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 19 The results about the prominence of the public information campaigns are disappointing. The evaluation team designed the impact evaluation with the expectation that the information campaign would be a prominent community event and that the information relayed to the attendees would additionally diffuse into the community. None of the results reported in this memorandum suggest that this was the case. Survey respondents in control villages were generally as likely as respondents in treatment villages to report that there had been public information meetings in the six weeks before the endline survey. While elites in treatment villages were significantly more likely to report that there had been public information meetings, the difference was not as great as we would have anticipated ex ante. In towns with populations on the order of 1,000 residents or less, we would have expected nearly all of the village heads to be aware of the MJP information campaign sessions. The initial results are even more surprising when we look at the proportion of people reporting that there was a public information campaign about the judicial sector. Although the proportion is consistently greater – at least among household respondents – in the treatment villages as compared to the control villages, it is still only 18 percent of those who report being aware of a public information meeting (or about 6 percent of the overall sample in the treatment villages) who say that the meetings were about the judicial sector. This proportion is similar among village elites with 18 percent of those who report being aware of a public information meeting reporting that the meeting was about the judicial sector. (Since a higher proportion of village elites report any meeting awareness, this means that around 12 percent of village elites in treatment villages say that there were informational meetings about the judicial sector). When we look only at villages with populations below 1,000 (according to the 2009 census), we also find similar results among the elites. These findings about awareness run in contrast to those typically found in studies of information campaigns in similar settings (e.g., Gottlieb 2016 in Mali). The evaluation team expected the information meetings (a) to be arranged with the village head and other village elites, (b) to be widely publicized, and (c) to be well attended. That we do not see evidence of this being true and that we do not find effects of village-level assignment to the information campaign condition on meeting awareness makes it unlikely that we will identify impacts of the information campaign on other outcome variables. What might explain these null findings? We propose five possibilities: (1) limited reach of the information sessions; (2) limited time for information diffusion; (3) non-adherence to the randomization schedule; (4) a disjuncture between the description of the meetings used by the CSOs and our survey question wording; and (5) improper survey data collection. Exploring each in turn, we are not able to identify a single, dominant explanation for the lack of awareness about the information campaign and the lack of impact on the knowledge index. We think that the most likely explanations are provided by the first and third possibilities: that the information sessions were more limited in scope than what the evaluation team had envisioned in designing the evaluation and/or that the CSOs did not strictly adhere to the randomization schedule. (1) LIMITED REACH OF THE INFORMATION SESSIONS One possible explanation for the results presented here is that the information sessions simply had a very limited reach. If the information sessions were not widely publicized and the individuals who attended them appeared in the endline survey sample in only limited USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 20 numbers, then we would not observe significant differences between treatment and control villages in terms of awareness of the information sessions. Based on the reporting that we received from the CSO partners, attendance at the information sessions ranged from around a dozen attendees to 56, with a median attendance of 23. We would expect this explanation to apply in large communities. Only 10 percent of the study villages had 2009 populations above 5,000 – the median community in the study had a 2009 population of around 1,200 people. While populations plausibly have increased since the 2009 census, we nonetheless believe that the majority of our study sites are small, rural villages where we would expect word to spread about information meetings and where we would expect the content of those information meetings to spread among a set of households that likely are closely connected in terms of day-to-day life. Given that the majority of communities in the study are small villages, we are surprised, in particular, that the levels of awareness of the information meetings were not higher among village elites. Looking at the set of 75 villages with 2009 populations below 1,000, only one village head in the treatment condition (and one village head in the control condition) reported that the had been public information meetings about the judicial sector held in the past six weeks in their village (Table 11). Were the information meetings organized in such a way that the village heads either did not know that they were happening or else did not know their topic? One possibility is that the attendees at the information sessions were a select set of residents with whom the CSOs had a prior connection. If this is the case, we might not expect awareness of the meetings or awareness of the information discussed in the meetings to be particularly widespread, since the meetings might be seen as typical activities for those who attended them, and their content might not be seen as something of any particular interest to non-attendees. We asked MJP to gather additional details from the CSOs about the conduct of the information campaign. APDF and CRADE returned detailed responses to our questions. Their responses were in line with our initial expectations and not with the results of the survey. APDF described how “many people participated [in the information sessions] without being invited” and implied that there was high community awareness about the meetings: “Certain localities were not very populated and considering the limited number [of information sessions], everyone wanted to know what was said.” APDF’s comments also implied that there should have been relatively little confusion between their meetings and any other meetings: “for the majority of people, it was their first time participating in any such meeting.” CRADE likewise described procedures involving widespread mobilization for the meetings: “The villagers are informed about the meetings by paralegals and village councilors going door-to-door, at the mosque, and in meetings of women’s and youth groups.” CRADE talked about “passerbys who, out of curiosity, want to know what is going on or what is being said” joining the meetings and noted that attendance was greater during the second meetings because “people come just from what was said to them about the first session.” USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 21 CRADE also emphasized the need to work with village elites “because no action can be undertaken or carried out without going through the village chief.” APDF also talked about village elites attending the trainings. The ways in which the two CSOs answered the evaluation team’s questions correspond to the evaluation team’s ex ante expectations. Yet, as described above, there was no significant difference in awareness between treatment and control communities in the areas covered by these two CSOs for household respondents. For village elites, on the other hand, there was greater awareness of information meetings in treatment villages and greater awareness that these meetings were about the judicial sector (although for treatment villages covered by APDF, it is less than one out of 10 village elites who said that the recent information session of which they were aware was about the judicial sector). (2) LIMITED TIME BETWEEN BASELINE, CAMPAIGN, AND ENDLINE Because these information campaign activities were timed for the end of the implementation year for the MJP, the MJP requested that the information meetings follow shortly after the baseline survey and that the endline survey follow shortly after the information meetings. Perhaps with additional time after the information meetings, awareness of the meetings and the information contained within them would have spread more widely among village residents, and we would have observed more awareness and more informational effects in a survey enumerated at a later date. We are somewhat skeptical of this explanation. The evaluation team anticipated that conducting the endline survey in a short timeframe after the information meetings would make it easier to observe differences across treatment and control villages in terms of awareness and that meeting attendees would be more likely to retain the information from the meetings, making it easier to observe significant treatment effects on the knowledge index. As described above, we did not anticipate that we would find relatively low levels of awareness of the meetings in treated villages. (3) NON-ADHERENCE TO RANDOMIZATION SCHEDULE As described above, we received reporting from the CSOs for only around half of the villages assigned to treatment, although the reports that we are missing are all from APDF villages. We also received reports about information sessions having happened in villages not included in the study and in one control village. If the CSOs did not adhere to the randomization schedule, we might expect to see patterns like those that we find in the household data question about awareness of public information meetings. That there was greater awareness of public information meetings among village elites in treatment villages and that public information meetings about which people were aware were more likely to be perceived as having been about the judicial sector in treatment villages relative to control villages suggests that villages assigned to treatment did, in fact, receive public information meetings to a greater extent than control villages did. We nonetheless, as described above, find it surprising that these numbers are not higher. We expected a priori that many elites – and certainly nearly all village heads – would be aware of the information sessions, as we expected that the CSOs would need to contact the village heads in order to conduct the information sessions (see the comments by USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 22 CRADE above). As posited above, if the CSOs conducted these information meetings in the context of ongoing routine activities, then they might not have been recognized as the kind of unusual public events that we had conceptualized them as when designing the evaluation, but the comments from APDF and CRADE above suggest that this was not the case: that many meeting attendees were having their first interaction with the CSO’s programming. (4) DISJUNCTURE BETWEEN DESCRIPTION OF MEETINGS USED BY CSOS AND QUESTION WORDING Were the information campaign meetings described and conducted in such a way that the question wording that we used (i.e., “public information meetings [réunions d'information publique]”) in the survey questions simply did not cue the MJP-sponsored activities in the minds of respondents? This might explain why respondents in treatment and control villages have an equal probability of saying that there was an information meeting, while those who say that there was an information meeting are then somewhat more likely in the treatment communities to say that the meeting was about the judicial sector. (Although among elites, those who say that there was a meeting are equally likely to say it was about the judicial sector in either treatment or control villages, and only one-out-of-10 does so.) No concerns were raised by GISSE during the enumerator training about these questions. After data collection was complete, we contacted an expert in Bambara linguistics to review the question; we also made contact with a Songhai speaker through this initial reference. These experts pointed to some ambiguities in the question wording but thought that the enumerators would have been able to make the intent of the question clear with proper tone and context. In the Bambara version, the question might be translated as “In the last six weeks, was meeting information given here in (this) town? Do you remember?” where the phrase might mean information from a meeting or information about a meeting. The Bambara expert said that this was not a commonly used expression but that it was not unlikely that people would make the connection between the phrase and the types of meetings conducted under the information campaign. In the Songhai version, the Songhai speaker translated “public information” as “literacy,” but noted that the word can mean “comprehension,” “clarification,” or “explanation” as well. He said that he guessed that we were asking about a community meeting. Part of the low rates of awareness, therefore, may be due to poor question wording, but even if this is the case, we would expect to see treatment effects insofar as some portion of the population is correctly understanding the questions. In addition, even if the awareness questions suffer from faulty wording and the information meetings happened at scale, we would still expect to see treatment effects on the knowledge questions, which we do not. (5) IMPROPER SURVEY DATA COLLECTION If the survey data were not collected in the assigned locations, the null results that we find here would not be surprising. The surveys were enumerated on tablets equipped with GPS, and we have checked the survey locations against detailed maps of Mali, and the enumeration coordinates match with what we would expect, except for cases where the USAID.GOV Tasking N032-DRG Impact Evaluation of USAID/Mali Justice Program | 23 enumerators could not use the tablets and had to enumerate the surveys on paper (as happened in Taoudénit). GISSE, the survey firm, also was active in helping us diagnose the original list of villages for villages that no longer existed or that had unusual populations. We received no indication during survey preparation, enumerator training, survey enumeration, and data processing that they were not taking their work seriously.