Mindanao Youth for Development Report & FY18/19 (Extension) Performance Evaluation Report Measuring Youth’s Employment, Perceptions and Engagement, and Skills ii ©2019 by Education Development Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This content may not be reproduced without the written permission of Education Development Center, Inc (EDC). This report is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of Education Development Center, Inc. and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT CENTER 43 Foundry Ave. Waltham, MA 02453 idd.edc.org iii REPORT CONTENTS List of Figures .................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................... v Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................................vi Introduction..............................................................................................................................................vi Methodology............................................................................................................................................vi Evaluation Findings ................................................................................................................................. vii Cohort FY18/19 Performance Evaluation Findings ............................................................................. vii Cohort FY17 Impact Evaluation Findings............................................................................................. vii Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Project Background ................................................................................................................................... 1 Evaluation Questions................................................................................................................................. 2 Methodology..................................................................................................................................... 3 Cohort FY17 Impact Evaluation Methodology .......................................................................................... 3 Study Design.......................................................................................................................................... 3 Sample Design ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Cohort FY18/19 (Extension) Performance Evaluation Methodology........................................................ 5 Study Design.......................................................................................................................................... 5 Sample Design ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Data Collection ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Evaluation Study Tools.............................................................................................................................. 6 Limitations................................................................................................................................................. 7 Limitations Specific to Cohort FY17....................................................................................................... 7 Findings and Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 7 Youth’s Perceptions of Violent Extremism & Resilience (Extension)........................................................ 7 Life, Work Readiness, and Leadership Skills............................................................................................10 Cohort FY17 Skills Impact Findings......................................................................................................10 Cohort FY18/19 (Extension) Performance Evaluation Findings..........................................................11 Perceptions of Gender in the Workplace............................................................................................13 Youth’s Perceptions Of Community And Government ...........................................................................14 Cohort FY17 Perceptions of Community and Government Impact Findings (FY17)...........................14 Cohort FY18/19 (Extension) Performance Evaluation Findings..........................................................15 Employment............................................................................................................................................16 Cohort FY17 Employment Impact Evaluation Findings.......................................................................17 Cohort FY18/19 (Extension) Employment Performance Evaluation Findings.....................................20 iv Conclusions.....................................................................................................................................22 Youth’s Perceptions of Violent Extremism..............................................................................................22 Resilience Skills........................................................................................................................................22 Life, Work Readiness, and Leadership Skills............................................................................................23 Youth’s Perceptions Of Community And Government ...........................................................................23 Employment............................................................................................................................................23 Annex: Sample Weights...................................................................................................................23 Weights for Youth Who Took the Youth Employment Survey............................................................23 Weights for Youth Who Took the Youth Perceptions Survey .............................................................24 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: MYDev’s Theory of Change ............................................................................................................................. 2 Figure 2: MYDev's Original Quasi-Experimental Evaluation Design............................................................................... 4 Figure 3: MYDev's FY18/19 Performance Evaluation Design......................................................................................... 5 Figure 4: Answer Options for Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism (Extension)..................................................... 8 Figure 5: Distribution of MYDev Youth's Responses to the Perceptions of Violent Extremism Sub-Sections, at Baseline and Endline ...................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 6: Distribution of MYDev Youth's Responses to Personal Resilience Skills Questions at Baseline and Endline . 9 Figure 7: Skills Self-Assessed by Youth......................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 8: MYDev Youth's Skill Gains Relative to Non-MYDev Youth's Skill Gains ........................................................ 11 Figure 9: MYDev Youth's Self-Assessment of Skills at Baseline and Endline................................................................ 11 Figure 10: Average Net Skill Gain (Baseline to Endline) for MY Dev Youth, by Geographic Area................................ 12 Figure 11: Answer Options for Gender Perceptions in the Workplace Section........................................................... 13 Figure 12: Distribution of MYDev Youth's Responses on Gender Perceptions in the Workplace Section at Baseline and Endline................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 13: Answer options for Community and Government Perceptions questions for FY17................................... 14 Figure 14: Answer Options for Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism (Extension)................................................. 15 Figure 15: MYDev Youth's Perceptions of Government and Community, at Baseline and Endline ............................ 16 Figure 16: Employment Trends from Baseline to Endline............................................................................................ 17 Figure 17: Ways of Finding Work at Baseline and Endline, Amongst MYDev and Non-MYDev Youth........................ 19 Figure 18: Employment Trends of MYDev Youth for Extension Period ....................................................................... 20 Figure 19: Ways of Finding Work at Baseline and Endline, Amongst MYDev Youth ................................................... 22 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Reliability Statistics for the YES and YPS........................................................................................................... 6 Table 2: FY17 Sample Weights..................................................................................................................................... 23 Table 3: FY18/19 Sample Weights................................................................................................................................ 24 Table 4: FY17 Sample Weights..................................................................................................................................... 24 Table 5 FY18/19 Sample Weights................................................................................................................................. 25 vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Implemented by Education Development Center (EDC), the Mindanao Youth for Development (MYDev) Project carried out youth life skills, basic education and livelihood skills initiatives in conflict-affected areas of Mindanao in eight conflict-affected areas: Cotabato City, Isabela City, Lamitan City, Marawi City, Zamboanga City, the municipalities of Parang in Maguindanao, and Jolo and Indanan in Sulu starting in 2013. These initiatives contribute to USAID/Philippines Development Objective 2: Peace and Stability in Conflict-Affected Areas in Mindanao by strengthening local governance and increasing youth civic engagement for peace and development. In February 2018, USAID approved a one-year cost extension which allowed MYDev to scale up the successful aspects of the project to 3 additional sites: Balo-I, Lanao del Norte; Iligan City; and Saguiaran, Lanao del Sur; and Iligan City, as USAID’s response to assist vulnerable youth affected by the Marawi siege. Over the past six years, MYDev has reached more than 25,700 vulnerable youth and mobilized local government officials, local businesses, and other stakeholders into Youth Development Alliances (YDA)1 aimed at coordinating multi-stakeholder support to job skills training and livelihood pathways. In the original five-year program implementation and in the one-year extension, MYDev has focused on three main components: • Strengthening services delivery for vulnerable out-of-school youth (OSY) through capacity building of local government units, communities, and stakeholders to improve education and training services for out-of-school youth • Increasing out-of-school youth access to education through the Department of Education’s Alternative Learning System (ALS) • Increasing out-of-school youth employability by providing equitable access to relevant education and skills training In the extension, MYDev also expanded its focus in two critical areas: interventions to support the recovery of Marawi and surrounding areas and its youth after the conflict, and interventions to continue to strengthen the resilience of Mindanao youth through introducing training on Foundations of Resilience along with deepening services that address root causes of instability in conflict-prone communities in the eight original target areas. METHODOLOGY This report presents the findings for two evaluation studies examining the outcomes of two cohorts of youth (FY17 and FY18/19). The evaluation designs and methodology used vary slightly between the two studies. In order to understand MYDev’s contribution to improving OSY’s community and government perceptions, skills, and employment outcomes, MYDev designed and implemented a quasi-experimental evaluation study for Cohort FY17. For Cohort FY18/19 (extension), time and feasibility constraints necessitated a shift in the evaluation design to a performance evaluation (without a comparison group). MYDev’s evaluation studies aim to determine whether links can be found between youth participation in MYDev’s programming and their outcomes in three key areas: • Employment, including self-employment 1 Formally Out-of-School Youth Development Alliances (OSYDA) vii • Perceptions of the community and government • Life, leadership, and work-readiness skills These three outcome areas align with three of MYDev’s key indicators and present the basis of the three evaluation questions that MYDev’s evaluation studies seek to answer: Q1. Do youth participants demonstrate improved livelihoods as a result of project activities? Q2. Do youth participants demonstrate improved perceptions of government and community as a result of project activities? Q3. Do youth participants demonstrate improved life, work readiness, and leadership skills as a result of project activities? The one-year project extension included a fourth outcome relating to youth’s perceptions of violence and violent extremism. Q4. Do youth participants demonstrate changes in perceptions towards violent extremism? EVALUATION FINDINGS Cohort FY18/19 Performance Evaluation Findings Perceptions of Violence. Findings suggest that 58% of MYDev youth demonstrated positive changes in their perception of violence, including violent extremism, which means they moved towards supporting non-violent or peaceful conflict resolution over violent actions. The average MYDev youth has 0.44 positive change score in their perception of violent extremism, starting at an average score of 4.95 at baseline and reaching 5.11 at endline out of a possible score of 7. Resilience Skills. Findings suggest that 55% of MYDev youth demonstrated improved resilience skills from baseline to endline. Across each of the five skills measured, MYDev youth rate their abilities significantly higher at endline than baseline (p<0.000) reflecting the increased confidence levels in their own abilities. This significance is further corroborated by effect size differences between 0.2 and 0.3, above the conventional threshold, for three out of the five skills measured. Skills. Findings suggest that 73.6% of MYDev youth improve either life skills, work readiness, or leaderhip skills between baseline and endline. Across each dimension, MYDev youth score, on average, significantly higher at endline than baseline (p<.0.00). Furthermore, MYDev youth’s average improvement in each dimensions are above the conventional threshold for effect size (d>0.2), reflecting the considerable magnitude of their improvement. Perceptions of Community and Government. Findings suggest that 77% of MYDev youth improved their perceptions of their communities or the government between baseline and endline. MYDev youth improved their perceptions significantly from baseline to endline in both community and government dimensions. Employment. Findings suggest that 31% of MYDev youth found new or better employment between baseline and endline. An examination of the overall employment trends for MYDev youth demonstrates a significant increase of ten percentage points in employment rates, from 28% at baseline to 38% at endline (p<0.000). Cohort FY17 Impact Evaluation Findings Skills. Findings suggest that 73% of MYDev youth improve their life skills, work readiness skills, or leadership skills from baseline to endline, which is significantly higher than the proportion of non-MYDev youth that improve their skills (63%). Additionally, MYDev youth improve their skills to a greater extent. When asked to rate a series of statements based on how well they understood and could perform a given skill, MYDev youth improve their skills in viii life, work readiness, and in leadership more than comparison group youth do (p<0.000). In each dimension, the magnitude of MYDev youth’s skill gains is above the conventional threshold for effect size (d>0.2), indicating that MYDev’s skill gains are substantial. Perceptions. Findings suggest that 71% of MYDev youth improved their perceptions of their communities or the government between baseline and endline, statistically more than 63% of comparison group youth who improved their perceptions. At baseline, MYDev and non-MYDev youth had significantly different perceptions of their communities, with comparison youth scoring higher, reflecting more positive ratings (p<0.01). However, at endline, MYDev youth’s scores increased substantially to an average score of 3.44 and comparison youth’s scores decreased slightly to an average score of 3.18, and there is a statistically significant difference between comparison and intervention group youth (p<0.00). At baseline, there was no significant difference in intervention and comparison group youth government perception scores. At endline, however, MYDev youth’s government perceptions scores were significantly higher than those of non-MYDev youth (3.27 vs 3.01, respectively) (p<0.00). Employment. Findings suggest that 10.8% of MYDev youth find new or better employment between baseline and endline. At baseline, non-MYDev youth had significantly higher rates of employment with 28% of non-MYDev youth employed compared to 16% of MYDev youth (p=0.00). At endline, non-MYDev youth’s employments rates declined significantly falling to 18%, a ten percentage point drop (p=0.000). In comparison, MYDev youth’s rates fell only three percentage points, from 16% at baseline to 13% at endline. This suggests that the MYDev program may have had a soothing effect on possible external factors influencing negative employment trends2. An examination of the overall employment trends of both MYDev and non-MYDev youth reveals that both groups had lower rates of employment at endline than baseline. 2 Although this study cannot say with certainty the external factors that contributed to declines in employment rates, it is worth noting that the timing of the endline data collection closely corresponded with the violence of the Marawi siege (beginning in May 2017) and subsequent martial law, including restriction of movement. These disruptions may have disproportionately negatively affected youth as they are more vulnerable to the conditions of martial law (e.g. lacking identification to pass checkpoints) and more vulnerable to job loss overall. 1 INTRODUCTION PROJECT BACKGROUND Implemented by Education Development Center (EDC), the Mindanao Youth for Development (MYDev) Project carried out youth life skills, basic education and livelihood skills initiatives in conflict-affected areas of Mindanao in eight conflict-affected areas: Cotabato City, Isabela City, Lamitan City, Marawi City, Zamboanga City, the municipalities of Parang in Maguindanao, and Jolo and Indanan in Sulu starting in 2013. These initiatives contribute to USAID/Philippines Development Objective 2: Peace and Stability in Conflict-Affected Areas in Mindanao by strengthening local governance and increasing youth civic engagement for peace and development. In February 2018, USAID approved a one-year cost extension which allowed MYDev to scale up the successful aspects of the project to 3 additional sites: Balo-I, Lanao del Norte; Iligan City; and Saguiaran, Lanao del Sur; and Iligan City, as USAID’s response to assist vulnerable youth affected by the Marawi siege. In the original five-year program implementation and in the one-year extension, MYDev has focused on three main components: • Strengthening services delivery for vulnerable out-of-school youth (OSY) through capacity building of local government units, communities, and stakeholders to improve education and training services for out-of-school youth • Increasing out-of-school youth access to education through the Department of Education’s Alternative Learning System (ALS) • Increasing out-of-school youth employability by providing equitable access to relevant education and skills training In the extension, MYDev also expanded its focus in two critical areas: interventions to support the recovery of Marawi and surrounding areas and its youth after the conflict, and interventions to continue to strengthen the resilience of Mindanao youth through introducing training on Foundations of Resilience along with deepening services that address root causes of instability in conflict-prone communities in the eight original target areas. The extension targets for new youth beneficiaries was 5,1003. The extension also sought to establish or strengthen three new Youth Development Alliances (YDA) and deepen post-training interventions in the eight existing sites to build resilience for youth and their communities. Over the past six years, MYDev has reached more than 25,700 vulnerable youth, mobilized resources, and documented youths’ accomplishments through a scientifically verified impact evaluation. In addition, MYDev organized and mobilized local government officials, local businesses, and other stakeholders into Youth Development Alliances (YDA)4 aimed at coordinating multi stakeholder support to job skills training and livelihood pathways. Within the specific context of the eleven conflict-affected areas where MYDev works, external factors, combined with local socio-economic circumstances, bear acutely on vulnerable out-of-school youth populations. MYDev therefore aims to strengthen positive factors for pro-social engagement of OSY by supporting reaffirmation of the social contract between and among different local government and other stakeholder groups, including OSY. Thus, MYDev’s implementation is informed by MYDev’s development hypothesis: If the social contract between local government and communities—vulnerable out-of-school youth (OSY) in particular—are strengthened through 3 This reflects the Marawi+3 sites and additional funding for the 7 existing sites as measured by Indicator 13. 4 Formally Out-of-School Youth Development Alliances (OSYDA) 2 incremental gains in mutual trust, conflict affected communities will begin to benefit from the accretion of social capital that underpins local area stability, security and prosperity. Taken together, youth and YDA programming is designed to produce an environment in which OSY cease to feel alienated from their communities and instead are able to contribute through work and community service. Such integration into the community—as produced by both OSY training programs and YDA activity—would be evidenced first by improved leadership, life, and work readiness skills accompanied by improved perceptions of the community and government. The improvement of skills and perceptions in the context of an environment that is conducive to OSY’s development and growth would lead to improved work outcomes for OSY (see Figure 1). EVALUATION QUESTIONS Yet can such a theory—in which a holistic approach to creating an enabling environment for OSY is combined with skills-focused training—be proven in the context of MYDev? MYDev’s evaluation studies aim to determine whether links can be found between youth participation in MYDev’s programming and their outcomes in three key areas: • Employment, including self-employment • Perceptions of the community and government • Life, leadership, and work-readiness skills These three outcome areas align with three of MYDev’s key indicators and present the basis of the three evaluation questions that MYDev’s evaluation studies seek to answer: Q1. Do youth participants demonstrate improved livelihoods as a result of project activities? • Indicator 12: Number of OSY receiving new or better employment (FAFI 4.6.3-2: Number of persons receiving new or better employment (including better self-employment) as a result of participation in a USG-funded workforce development project Figure 1: MYDev’s Theory of Change 3 Q2. Do youth participants demonstrate improved perceptions of government and community as a result of project activities? • Indicator 10: Percentage of targeted OSY with improved perceptions of community or government Q3. Do youth participants demonstrate improved life, work readiness, and leadership skills as a result of project activities? • Indicator 14: Percentage of OSY with improved life skills, work readiness, or leadership skills for civic engagement The one-year project extension included a fourth outcome relating to youth’s perceptions of violence and violent extremism. MYDev designed a performance evaluation suitable for the project timing, new project sites, and additional questions on youth perceptions of violence and personal resilience skills to estimate the effect of the enhanced project interventions. Q4. Do youth participants demonstrate changes in perceptions towards violent extremism? In answering the evaluation questions, MYDev reports on the following key project extension indicators: • Indicator 2: Percentage of targeted youth with improved perceptions of community and government. • Indicator 3: Number of youth receiving new or better employment/ livelihoods. (FACTS Indicator EG 6- 1) • Indicator 4: Percentage of youth with improved life skills, work readiness and leadership skills for civic engagement • Indicator 5: Percentage of youth who demonstrate changes in perception towards violent extremism. METHODOLOGY This report presents the findings for two evaluation studies examining the outcomes of two cohorts of youth (FY17 and FY18/19). The evaluation designs and methodology used vary slightly between the two studies. The next section of the report will first summarize the study design of the FY17 impact evaluation and then subsequent section will detail the changes made in the study design of the FY18/19 performance evaluation. COHORT FY17 IMPACT EVALUATION METHODOLOGY Study Design In order to understand MYDev’s contribution to improving OSY’s community and government perceptions, skills, and employment outcomes, MYDev designed and implemented a quasi-experimental evaluation study. For each cohort, a randomly selected sample of intervention group youth is surveyed during the first 2 weeks of participation in MYDev (baseline) and four to six months after graduation from MYDev (endline). Intervention group results are then compared to a comparison group’s results at both baseline and endline to shed light on the influence of project activities on intervention group youth. 4 Figure 2: MYDev's Original Quasi-Experimental Evaluation Design Sample Design The selection of the sample of intervention and comparison group youth is key to ensuring the most comparable groups possible given a quasi-experimental approach in which the equivalence of comparison and intervention groups cannot be assumed. Thus, care was taken to choose comparison (non-MYDev) youth who were very similar to intervention (MYDev) youth in key characteristics: • Sex • Age • Education Status • Employment Status • Place of Residence In each cohort, intervention group youth who participated in the impact evaluation were randomly selected from the population of OSY who began MYDev training within the fiscal year. To account for a high expected rate of attrition from the sample, a sample of 3,329 youth, stratified by sex and LGU, was randomly selected from the FY17 participants, yielding a final sample of 1,657 intervention group youth who took all surveys at both baseline and endline. A much smaller sample of 416 comparison group youth was drawn as well, also stratified by sex and geographic area (local government unit or LGU), yielding a final sample of 401 comparison group youth who took all surveys at both baseline and endline. These sample sizes were chosen to allow for the detection of even small changes over time or small differences between groups, sometimes referred to as a small effect size. While this sample size allowed for comparisons between male and female youth, it did not allow for comparisons between male and female youth within LGUs. In order to allow for findings of the FY17 evaluation—based on sample data—to be generalized to the population of MYDev youth who participated in trainings beginning in FY17, the sample data was weighted to the population of youth who participated in MYDev in FY17. Weighting allows for the sample—which may not reflect key characteristics 5 of the population such as the percent of males and females or the percent from rural/partially urban/highly urban settings—to be re-adjusted so that the composition of the sample reflects the composition of the population in key ways. In the MYDev context, where a disproportionate stratified sampling strategy meant that an equal number of males and females were sampled from each LGU, the composition of the sample in terms of sex and being from a rural/partially urban/highly urban setting did not reflect the population. Thus, weights were applied to the sample based on the sex and rural/partially urban/highly urban setting composition of the population. This allows the findings to be generalized the entire population of FY17 MYDev youth. Both the intervention and comparison groups were weighted to the population of FY17 MYDev youth who participated in MYDev trainings during the time period in which we implemented our data collection surveys (see Annex 1 for sample weights). Data Collection Data was collected from intervention group youth at two points: 1) within the first two weeks of their participation in MYDev training and 2) 4-6 months after they graduated from their training programs. Since MYDev youth begin and graduate from their trainings at different points throughout the fiscal year, which runs from October 1 through September 30, baseline data was collected quarterly throughout the entire year. The 4-6 month lag between graduation and endline data collection is intentional: it allows youth the time necessary to realize the expected outcomes that we intend to measure. In FY17, comparison group youth were assessed at the beginning of the fiscal year—in October and November—and again, 4-6 months later in March and April for the endline. COHORT FY18/19 (EXTENSION) PERFORMANCE EVALUATION METHODOLOGY Study Design Due to feasibility and time constraints in identifying comparison group youth, MYDev shifted the study design for Cohort FY18/19 to a performance evaluation (without a comparison group). Consequently, youth’s outcomes are assessed through a pre (baseline)/post (endline) comparison. Figure 3: MYDev's FY18/19 Performance Evaluation Design 6 Sample Design The Cohort FY18/19 performance evaluation followed the same sample design as previous impact evaluations, excepting the selection of comparison group youth. MYDev followed the previously-designed proportional stratified random sampling approach to select 1001 youth out of the enrolled from the FY18/19 cohort, stratified by sex and geographical location. After attrition, verification, and data cleaning, the final sample included789 intervention group youth. Data Collection The Cohort FY18/19 performance evaluation followed the same data collection process as previous MYDev evaluations. Baseline data was collected at the beginning of training programs (May to October 2018). Endline data was collected in November 2018 to March 2019, and included the 4-6 month lag after the end of training programs. EVALUATION STUDY TOOLS Both the FY17 and FY18/19 evaluation studies collected data from youth using two main tools: the Youth Employment Survey (YES) and the Youth Perceptions Survey (YPS). These two tools were first piloted with MYDev youth in FY14, after which they were revised, adapted, and implemented as part of MYDev’s FY15, FY16, and FY17 evaluations. The YES was developed and validated in previous EDC projects, and then adapted for use in MYDev. This process of adaptation included translation, back translation, piloting, and revision to the tool to ensure its usefulness for the MYDev context. In addition, a new section was added to measure youth’s life, work-readiness, and leadership skills. To establish the reliability of this new section, principal component analysis was implemented, revealing the tool to be relatively reliable with Cronbach’s alpha measures for all skill-types dimensions above the conventional threshold of 0.7 (Table 1). For the FY18/19 performance evaluation, an additional dimension was added to the YES to examine youth’s perceptions of gender roles in the workplace. This was in response to results from previous impact evaluations that identified gender gaps in employment outcomes and skills gains. The YPS was developed specifically for the MYDev context with the goal of measuring youth’s perceptions of their governments and their communities. As with the YES, the YPS underwent pilot testing and refinement before being implemented in MYDev evaluation studies. For the FY18/19 performance evaluation, two additional dimensions were added to the YPS: perceptions of violence and resilience skills. This was in response to MYDev’s expanded focus and additional outcome measure. Table 1: Reliability Statistics for the YES and YPS Tool Dimension Cronbach’s Alpha5 How Reliable is it? Youth Employment Survey Work Readiness 0.853 Good Leadership 0.745 Acceptable Life Skills 0.749 Acceptable Gender Perceptions 0.854 Good Youth Perceptions Survey Government Perceptions 0.908 Excellent Community Perceptions 0.914 Excellent 5 A level of .70 or higher is viewed as acceptable for Cronbach’s alphas, though researchers prefer to see alphas of .85 or higher. 7 Perceptions of Violence 0.908 Excellent Resilience Skills 0.820 Good LIMITATIONS While the FY17 impact evaluation and FY18/19 performance evaluation were implemented with rigor and detail, some limitations persist: • Claims to Causality. The quasi-experimental impact evaluation design selected for the FY17 cohort is considered relatively rigorous, however one cannot assume that it produces intervention and comparison groups that are equivalent in both observable and unobservable characteristics. While the sampling and data analysis approaches used in this evaluation try to mitigate the effects of this limitation, the influence of unobservable difference remains unknown. Thus, factors other than the presence or absence of the MYDev program may influence youth’s outcomes such that the findings in this evaluation cannot be claimed to be caused by MYDev’s programming. Instead, throughout the report, we point to findings that suggest the influence of MYDev’s programming on MYDev youth, even though we cannot claim causality. The lack of a comparison group in MYDev’s FY18/19 performance evaluation limits claims to causality even further, as there is no counterfactual presented to represent what youth’s outcomes might have been without the program. Limitations Specific to Cohort FY17 • Comparison Group Weighting. As data on the sex and geographic area composition of all out-of-school youth in Mindanao was not available, comparison group youth were weighted to the population of MYDev Cohort FY17 youth. This means that, regardless of the reality, comparison and intervention groups will seem statistically comparable in terms of sex and location. • Different Timing of Data Collection for Intervention and Comparison Groups. MYDev’s trainings have rolling admission, which means that baseline surveys are implemented on a rolling basis as well, whereas comparison group baselines are implemented at one point in time. If time of year has a differential effect on skills, perceptions, or employment outcomes, observed differences between intervention and comparison group youth may be artificial. FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION The following sections present the findings for each of the evaluation questions. Within each section, FY17 Impact Evaluation and FY18/19 (Extension) Performance Evaluation findings are presented separately. YOUTH’S PERCEPTIONS OF VIOLENT EXTREMISM & RESILIENCE (EXTENSION) In the extension, MYDev’s expanded its focus to include interventions to address youth after the Marawi conflict and increase the resilience of youth, including the addition of two modules, Foundations of Resilience (FoR) 1 and 2, to MYDev’s Life Skills training. The first training module, FoR 1, aims to help youth understand how thoughts directly drive feelings/emotions, and affect behaviors. The second training module, FoR 2, aims to help youth understand violent extremism in the local context and provides strategies such as strengthening one’s social support system to build personal resilience to violence, including violent extremism. 8 In order to answer the evaluation question “Do youth participants demonstrate changes in perceptions towards violent extremism?”, MYDev developed an additional section in the Youth Perceptions Survey to measure changes in the youth’s perceptions of violent extremism (YPS Part 2). YPS Part 2 is composed of two sets of statements. The first set of statements promotes the acceptability of violent actions and violent extremism as a means of conflict resolution. The second set of statements promotes the acceptability of non-violence and peaceful means of conflict resolution. Youth expressed their agreement to each statement using the same Likert Scale (see Figure 4) and scores were assigned ranging from 1 to 7, with higher scores reflecting agreement to peaceful means of conflict resolution. In order to estimate the resilience skills gained from FoR 1, the YPS also included a section asking youth to share their level of confidence in performing five key resilience skills using a different five-point Likert scale, which was then scored from 1 to 5. MYDev Youth’s Perceptions of Violent Extremism 58% of MYDev youth demonstrated positive changes in their perception of violent extremism, which means they moved towards supporting non-violent or peaceful conflict resolution over violent actions. The average MYDev youth has 0.44 positive change score in their perception of violent extremism, starting at an average score of 4.95 at baseline and reaching 5.11 at endline out of a possible score of 7. The overall distribution of MYDev youth’s responses to each sub-section at baseline and endline is shown in the figure below. Figure 5: Distribution of MYDev Youth's Responses to the Perceptions of Violent Extremism Sub-Sections, at Baseline and Endline Youth’s Perceptions of Violent Extremism and Gender At endline, MYDev youth agreed more with statements supporting nonviolence and disagreed more with statements supporting violent actions ANSWER OPTIONS 1. I DON’T KNOW 2. STRONGLY DISAGREE 3. DISAGREE 4. SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 5. SOMEWHAT AGREE 6. AGREE 7. STRONGLY AGREE Figure 4: Answer Options for Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism (Extension) 9 MYDev male and female youth demonstrated, on average, similar positive change scores in their perceptions of violent extremism from baseline to endline. Interestingly, however, at both baseline and endline, MYDev female youth scored significantly higher than male youth (p<0.000). At baseline, female youth had an average score of 5.12 points compared to an average score of 4.8 points for male youth (out of a possible score of 7). At endline, female youth had an average score of 5.28 points compared to an average of 4.99 points (out of a possible score of 7). Youth’s Perceptions of Violent Extremism and Geographic Area Overall, there was little geographic-based variation in MYDev youth’s baseline, endline, or positive change scores on the perceptions of violent extremism dimension. The only statistically significant based difference relating to geographic area was in the comparison of positive change scores between partially urban and rural areas (0.16 vs 0.23, respectively) (p<0.05). MYDev Youth’s Resilience Skills 55% of MYDev youth demonstrated improved resilience skills from baseline to endline. Across each of the five skills measured, MYDev youth rate their abilities significantly higher at endline than baseline (p<0.000) reflecting the increased confidence levels in their own abilities. This significance is further corroborated by effect size differences between 0.2 and 0.3, above the conventional threshold, for three out of the five skills measured. The distribution of MYDev youth’s responses to each prompt is shown in the figure below. Figure 6: Distribution of MYDev Youth's Responses to Personal Resilience Skills Questions at Baseline and Endline 10 LIFE, WORK READINESS, AND LEADERSHIP SKILLS Among the MYDev project’s key activities is intensive Life Skills training that develops a youth’s foundational life skills, work readiness skills, and leadership skills. Coupled with practical technical skills training, community service projects, participation in community-based youth networks, and involvement in the youth-promoting activities led by MYDev’s YDA, this intensive skills training is intended to prepare youth for meaningful and productive engagement in their communities, with their families, and at their jobs. MYDev has measured skill gains through self-reported questions for each dimension answered directly by youth (see Figure 7). Findings in the following section suggest that MYDev youth may improve their life skills, work readiness skills, and leadership skills as a result of training. Cohort FY17 Skills Impact Findings A significantly higher percentage of MYDev youth seem to improve their life skills, work readiness skills, and leadership skills from baseline to endline than non-MYDev youth as a result of MYDev training. 73% of MYDev youth improve either their life skills, work readiness skills, or leadership skills between baseline and endline, compared to 63% of non-MYDev youth (p=0.000). Additionally, MYDev youth improve their skills to a greater extent. When asked to rate a series of statements based on how well they understood and could perform a given skill, MYDev youth improve their skills in life, work readiness, and in leadership more than comparison group youth do (p<0.000). In each dimension, the magnitude of MYDev youth’s skill gains is above the conventional threshold for effect size (d>0.2), indicating that MYDev’s skill gains are substantial. In fact, across all three skills dimensions, MYDev youth improve their skills while non-MYDev youth seem to have a slight reduction in skills. Life Skills •Communicating with a variety of people •Goal-setting •Understanding One's Learning Style •Providing for Family Work Readiness Skills •Speaking Clearly •Overcoming Challenges •Solving Conflict •Finding work •Improving a work situation •Developing business proposals •Starting a Business Leadership Skills •Leading at work •Leading in one's community Figure 7: Skills Self-Assessed by Youth 11 Skills and Gender MYDev skills training seems to reduce a skills gender gap between males and females. Amongst non-MYDev youth, male youth improve their scores more than female youth (with 95% confidence on life skills and 90% confidence on work readiness skills). Yet this pattern cannot be observed amongst MYDev youth, where males and females have statistically similar gain scores from baseline to endline. Skills and Urban/Rural Location While MYDev may have leveled the playing field between highly urban, partially urban, and rural youth a little bit across most skill areas, a gap for rural youth persists when it comes to leadership skills. While highly urban MYDev youth have similar scores on the leadership skills dimension compared to MYDev youth from partially urban areas, by endline, highly urban youth score significantly better than rural youth on this dimension (p<0.00). On average, MYDev youth from highly urban areas improved 0.6 net points on the leadership skills dimension, while MYDev youth from rural areas improved only 0.13 net points. Cohort FY18/19 (Extension) Performance Evaluation Findings 73.6% of MYDev youth improve either life skills, work readiness, or leaderhip skills between baseline and endline. Across each dimension, MYDev youth score, on average, significantly higher at endline than baseline (p<.0.00). Furthermore, MYDev youth’s average improvement in each dimensions are above the conventional threshold for effect size (d>0.2), reflecting the considerable magnitude of their improvement. Figure 9: MYDev Youth's Self-Assessment of Skills at Baseline and Endline 0.28 0.24 0.33 -0.03 -0.06 -0.07 Work Readiness Life Skills Leadership Skills Intervention Comparison Figure 8: MYDev Youth's Skill Gains Relative to Non-MYDev Youth's Skill Gains 12 Skills and Gender There does not appear to be a gender gap in MYDev youth’s life, work readiness, and leadership skills. Male and female MYDev youth improve their skills at similar rates, 73% and 74.5%, respectively, from baseline to endline. Furthermore, at endline, MYDev male and female youth rate themselves similarly with an average skills score of 2.78 for male youth and 2.83 for female youth (p=0.288). Skills and Urban/Rural Location There does not appear to be an urban/rural gap in the proportion of MYDev youth with improved life, work readiness, and leadership skills. In other words, MYDev youth from geographic areas, on average, improved their skills at similar rates. Further analysis, however, shows that geographic differences do emerge when examining the magnitude of the skill gains. Interestingly, while MYDev youth from urban and partially urban areas have similar average skill gains, there is a significant (p<0.00) difference in the gains between highly urban and rural youth (as seen in the figure below). Figure 10: Average Net Skill Gain (Baseline to Endline) for MY Dev Youth, by Geographic Area 13 Perceptions of Gender in the Workplace The MYDev project equally embraces male and female participants, presenting youth with as much choice as possible while providing all youth with a solid foundation in the skills they will need regardless of their sex. In examining the outcomes of male and female MYDev youth and over the course of implementing project activities, the project noticed several trends reflecting gender gaps and possible gender biases. MYDev took the opportunity of the project extension to further investigate youth’s perceptions of gender in the workplace. In an additional section of the Youth Employment Survey, youth expressed their agreement on a five-point scale (shown at right) to a series of eight statements promoting gender￾equity in the workplace. At baseline, on average, about half (52%) of MYDev youth agreed or strongly agreed with statements promoting gender equity in the workplace. At endline, this proportion increased significantly to 58% (p<0.000). Not surprisingly, female MYDev youth showed stronger levels of agreement with these statements than did male MYDev youth. At endline, however, this difference was only significant in three instances (net agreement for male and female youth): • Female youth feel prepared to be successful in employment and livelihood opportunities (70.8% vs 81.7%). • The community and family encourage both male and female youth equally to be trained on employability skills (77.6% vs 85.6%). • Female and male youth have the same decision-making power to choose their field of work (77% vs 85.2%). Figure 12: Distribution of MYDev Youth's Responses on Gender Perceptions in the Workplace Section at Baseline and Endline 17% 11% 20% 32% 20% 11% 8% 22% 39% 19% I Don't Know Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Strongly Agree At endline, MYDev youth show signficantly more support for statements promoting gender equity in the workplace Baseline Endline ANSWER OPTIONS 1. I DON’T KNOW 2. STRONGLY DISAGREE 3. DISAGREE 4. AGREE 5. STRONGLY AGREE Figure 11: Answer Options for Gender Perceptions in the Workplace Section 14 YOUTH’S PERCEPTIONS OF COMMUNITY AND GOVERNMENT MYDev’s program seeks to improve youth’s engagement with and perceptions of their communities and government. This section presents findings regarding youth’s perceptions of both their communities and the government. FY17 Impact Findings suggest that 71% of MYDev youth improved their perceptions of their communities or the government between baseline and endline, statistically more than 63% of comparison group youth who improved their perceptions. Extension Performance Evaluation findings suggest that 77% of MYDev youth improved their perceptions of their communities or the government between baseline and endline. Cohort FY17 Perceptions of Community and Government Impact Findings (FY17) MYDev Youth’s Perceptions of Community The Community Perceptions component of this study consists of twelve questions measuring youth’s attitudes toward their communities and their role in it as out-of-school youth. These attitudes are measured over time as a gain score, indicating the change in youth’s perceptions of their communities from baseline to endline. The answer options are on a Likert scale and are scored on a range of 1 to 5 (see Figure 13). Intervention group youth have significantly higher perceptions of the community at endline and significantly higher gain scores between baseline and endline compared to non-MYDev youth. These findings, explored further below, suggest that, by encouraging youth to be part of the youth network and to be engaged in community service activities with their community leaders the MYDev program may help in improving youth’s perceptions of their communities. MYDev Youth’s Perceptions MYDev youth improve their perceptions of their communities over time, without any gender disparities in this improvement. MYDev youth have a 0.40 gain score in community perceptions, starting at an average score of 3.06 at baseline and reaching 3.44 at endline out of a possible score of 5. There is no statistically significant difference in the average gain score in community perceptions between male and female intervention group youth (p=0.376). Impact Findings: MYDev vs. Non-MYDev Youth There is evidence that MYDev positively influences youth’s perceptions of their communities. At baseline, MYDev and non￾MYDev youth had significantly different perceptions of their communities, with comparison youth scoring higher, reflecting more positive ratings (p<0.01). However, at endline, MYDev youth’s scores increased substantially to an average score of 3.44 and comparison youth’s scores decreased slightly to an average score of 3.18, and there is a statistically significant difference between comparison and intervention group youth (p<0.00). Youth’s Perceptions of Government The Government Perceptions component of this study consists of twelve questions measuring youth’s attitudes toward their government and civic participation. These attitudes are measured over time as a gain score, indicating the change in youth’s perceptions of their government from baseline to endline. The answer options are on a Likert scale and are scored on a range of 1 to 5 (as in Figure 13 above). Figure 13: Answer options for Community and Government Perceptions questions for FY17 ANSWER OPTIONS 1. I DON’T KNOW 2. STRONGLY DISAGREE 3. DISAGREE 4. AGREE 5. STRONGLY AGREE 15 While the presence of a comparison group helps to isolate the effects of the larger political scene from the effects of MYDev’s programming, the absence of a randomly assigned control group opens the possibility for comparison and intervention group youth to be differently affected by the political environment. MYDev Youth’s Perceptions The average MYDev youth improved his or her perceptions of the government with an average gain of 0.36 between baseline and endline. There is no significant difference in average gain scores between male and female intervention group youth (p=0.325). Impact Findings: MYDev vs. Non-MYDev Youth MYDev’s programming appears to have had a significant effect on intervention group youth’s perceptions of the government relative to comparison group youth. At baseline, there was no significant difference in intervention and comparison group youth government perception scores. At endline, however, MYDev youth’s government perceptions scores were significantly higher than those of non-MYDev youth (3.27 vs 3.01, respectively) (p<0.00). Cohort FY18/19 (Extension) Performance Evaluation Findings MYDev Youth’s Perceptions of Community and Government In the project extension, MYDev utilized the same Youth Perceptions Survey, but updated the answer options on the Likert scale to expand the range of scores from 1 to 7, the same options available in the dimension measuring youth’s perceptions of violent extremism (see Figure 14). MYDev Youth’s Perceptions of Community MYDev youth improved their perceptions of their communities significantly from baseline to endline, without any signs of gender or geographic area disparities in this improvement. The average MYDev youth has a 0.45 gain score in community perceptions, starting at an average score of 4.11 at baseline and reaching 4.57 at endline out of a possible score of 7. There is no statistically significant difference in the average gain score in community perceptions between male and female MYDev youth or in the average gain scores of MYDev youth from different geographic areas. ANSWER OPTIONS 1. I DON’T KNOW 2. STRONGLY DISAGREE 3. DISAGREE 4. SOMEWHAT DISAGREE 5. SOMEWHAT AGREE 6. AGREE 7. STRONGLY AGREE Figure 14: Answer Options for Youth Perceptions of Violent Extremism (Extension) 16 Figure 15: MYDev Youth's Perceptions of Government and Community, at Baseline and Endline MYDev Youth’s Perceptions of Government MYDev youth improved their perceptions of their government significantly from baseline to endline, without any signs of gender or geographic area disparities in this improvement. The average MYDev youth has a 0.44 gain score in government perceptions, starting at an average score of 3.85 at baseline and reaching 4.29 at endline out of a possible score of 7. There is no statistically significant difference in the average gain score in community perceptions between male and female MYDev youth or in the average gain scores of MYDev youth from different geographic areas. EMPLOYMENT MYDev’s training activities focus on helping youth to achieve positive education and employment outcomes— including obtaining work for the first time or improving the quality of one’s work. While youth have the option to become involved in technical skills training programs, all youth participate in MYDev’s Life Skills training, which is based on EDC’s Work Ready Now! (WRN!) Curriculum. Life Skills training includes focused study and the practical application of skills across several areas important for one’s work readiness. The curriculum also includes entrepreneurship and civic engagement modules: • Personal Development • Interpersonal Communications • Work Habits and Conduct • Leadership and Teamwork • Safety and Health at Work • Workers’ and Employers’ Rights and Responsibilities • Managing Personal Finances • Exploring Entrepreneurship 17 • Civic Engagement • Foundations of Resilience 1 and 26 While the life skills training provided prepares youth for success on the job, it also seeks to prepare them for managing that success in the handling of their personal lives even as they embrace technical training or basic education training to prepare them for their next steps. Additionally, MYDev and training service providers help youth bridge the gap from training to employment with post-training activities and deep engagement with private sector. Cohort FY17 Employment Impact Evaluation Findings In FY17, the findings below suggest that 10.8% of MYDev youth find new or better employment between baseline and endline. At baseline, 84% of youth were not employed. Of these youth, 11.3% gained employment by endline, which represents 9.6% of all MYDev youth. Only 3.2% of all MYDev youth had employment at both baseline and endline (and thus are eligible for better employment by endline), and 38.6% of these youth reported improving their employment – representing 1.2% of the sample. At baseline, non-MYDev youth had significantly higher rates of employment with 28% of non-MYDev youth employed compared to 16% of MYDev youth (p=0.00). When compared to non-MYDev youth, there were no significant differences in the rates of new or better employment between MYDev and non-MYDev youth. However, non-MYDev youth’s employments rates declined significantly falling to 18%, a ten percentage point drop, at endline (p=0.000). In comparison, MYDev youth’s rates fell only three percentage points, from 16% at baseline to 13% at endline. This suggests that the MYDev program may have had a soothing effect on possible external factors influencing negative employment trends 7. An examination of the overall employment trends of both MYDev and non-MYDev youth reveals that both groups had lower rates of employment at endline than baseline. Figure 16: Employment Trends from Baseline to Endline 6 FoR 1 & 2 were implemented in FY18/19 only 7 Although this study cannot say with certainty the external factors that contributed to declines in employment rates, it is worth noting that the timing of the endline data collection closely corresponded with the violence of the Marawi siege (beginning in May 2017) and subsequent martial law, including restriction of movement. These disruptions may have disproportionately negatively affected youth as they are more vulnerable to the conditions of martial law (e.g. lacking identification to pass checkpoints) and more vulnerable to job loss overall. 18 Profile of a Newly Employed MYDev Youth The group of MYDev youth who are newly employed by endline tend to be overwhelmingly male (73%), live in rural areas (49.6%), and are, on average, 20.2 years old. Their work lives are mostly consumed with temporary work (56.8% of the youth) or permanent work (28.2%), both of which are much more popular types of employment amongst newly employed MYDev youth compared to internships and running one’s own business. Most of these youth (80.7%) work one job each. Almost all (95.8%) are paid in monetary wages, and not in kind, for their work. The most popular sector for newly employed youth is business, with 31.7% of newly employed youth involved in this sector, followed by construction (13.4%), and transportation services (12.6%). Most of these youth feel either safe (63.8%) or very safe on the job (6.4%). Financially, newly employed MYDev youth seem to be managing their earnings. Over half (61%) say their earnings have increased a little since graduation from MYDev, and almost all (92.2%) say that these earnings meet their needs either sometimes or always. A slight majority (58.5%) of youth who are newly employed report being able to save their money sometimes, and the majority of youth (64.8%) who responded say that these savings meet their needs. Furthermore, half (55.5%) of them say their savings have increased since they graduated from MYDev. Corroborating this point is the fact that 90.3% of responding youth report eating three or more meals per day at endline. New Employment and Gender Male youth find new employment at higher rates than female youth, and this difference is significant for MYDev youth. Among MYDev youth, only 6.4% of female youth obtained new employment compared to 11.7% of male youth, reflecting a gender gap of about 5.3 percentage points (p=0.000). Among non-MYDev youth only 5.5% of female youth obtained new employment compared to 9.7% of male youth, reflecting a smaller and not statistically significant gender gap of 4.2 percentage points. New Employment and Urban/Rural Location There seems to be some geographic-based variation in rates of new employment. Amongst MYDev youth, almost half of newly employed youth were from rural areas (49.6%). About one-third (33.9% of newly employed youth come from highly urban areas and 16.5% come from partially urban areas. However, amongst non-MYDev youth, the highest proportion of newly employed youth are from partially urban areas (49.8%). For MYDev youth, the 16% 13% 28% 18% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Baseline Endline Intervention Group Comparison Group 19 distribution of newly employed youth from highly urban/partially urban/rural areas is significantly different (at p<0.01). Better Employment for MYDev Youth While just 1.2% of all MYDev youth have better quality employment by endline, when we examine only the group of 52 MYDev youth who have employment at both baseline and endline (and are therefore ‘eligible’ for improved employment), almost two-fifths (38.6%) these youth obtain improved employment by endline. There is no statistically significant difference between better employment outcomes for the intervention and comparison groups (p=0.344). Better Employment and Gender According to the data, no gender gap for better employment exists for either MYDev or non-MYDev youth in terms of better employment. However, the small sample size (n=52 for MYDev youth that are continuously employed) limits our ability to make further inferences into gender differences. More research with a larger sample size is necessary to determine this for sure. Better Employment and Urban/Rural Location Similarly, according to the data, no urban/rural gap seems to exist for either MYDev or non-MYDev youth in terms of better employment. The small sample size, however, limits the conclusiveness of this finding. Unemployed Youth (FY17) In FY17, the overwhelming majority of MYDev (87%) and non-MYDev youth (82%) were unemployed at endline. Of those unemployed, about 20% of MYDev youth responded that they were looking for work. Those that were looking for work seem to have benefited from MYDev’s activities. At baseline, similar proportions of MYDev and non￾MYDev youth cited attending job fairs. At endline, however, a significantly higher proportion of MYDev youth than non-MYDev youth cited attending job fairs – a key YDA activity – as a way of looking for work. 10.1% 2.5% 11.4% 7.1% 30.3% Comparison 48.2% 22.9% 19.6% 5.5% 6.0% Intervention 23.3% 11.0% 21.5% 6.5% 11.9% Comparison 35.9% 11.7% 15.6% 6.1% 8.6% CV or Job Application Attended a Job Fair/Event Applied for a Job Interviewed for a Job Develop a Businessplan Intervention Ways of Finding Work at Baseline Ways of Finding Work at Endline Figure 17: Ways of Finding Work at Baseline and Endline, Amongst MYDev and Non-MYDev Youth 20 The most common reason cited by both MYDev and non-MYDev youth for not looking for work was that “there are no jobs” (29.0% of MYDev youth/31.2% non-MYDev youth). This perhaps further indicates the extent of the impact of external factors on labor market trends. Among MYDev youth, other common reasons for not looking for work included attending school (14.1%), not needing work (13.6%), and not having the skills needed (13.2%). Among non￾MYDev youth, “not having the resources” was the second most common reason cited for not looking for work (22.2%). This perhaps further indicates the impact of MYDev’s activities on youth’s access to services and resources. Cohort FY18/19 (Extension) Employment Performance Evaluation Findings The FY18/19 MYDev Youth Performance evaluation findingssuggest that 31% of MYDev youth found new or better employment between baseline and endline. At baseline, about 72% of youth reported not having employment and 28% reported having some kind of employment. Of those unemployed at baseline, 33% gained employment, representing 24% of all MYDev youth. Of the 14.1% MYDev youth who reported employment at both baseline and endline, 50.4% improved their employment, representing 7% of the sample. An examination of the overall employment trends for MYDev youth demonstrates a significant increase of ten percentage points in employment rates, from 28% at baseline to 38% at endline (p<0.000). Figure 18: Employment Trends of MYDev Youth for Extension Period Profile of a Newly Employed MYDev Youth MYDev youth who are newly employed by endline tend to be overwhelmingly male (72%) and live in rural areas (45.7%). A majority of MYDev youth reported temporary work (42.5% of the youth), with 29.6% reporting permanent work, both of which were more commonly reported amongst newly employed MYDev youth compared to internships and running one’s own business. Most of these youth (66.0%) work one job each. Almost all (90.6%) are paid in monetary wages, and not in kind. The most popular sector for newly employed youth is business, with 22.5% of newly employed youth involved in this sector, followed by construction (19.4%), and agriculture (11.4%). Most of these youth feel either safe (51.0%) or very safe on the job (26.2%). 28% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Baseline Endline MYDev Youth 21 Financially, newly employed MYDev youth seem to be managing their earnings. Over half (52.9%) say their earnings have increased a little since graduation from MYDev, and almost all (90.0%) say that these earnings meet their needs either sometimes or always. A slight majority (62.6%) of youth who are newly employed report being able to save their money sometimes, and the majority of youth (60.2%) who responded say that these savings meet their needs. Furthermore, almost half (48.2%) of them say their savings have increased since they graduated from MYDev. Corroborating this point is the fact that 74.4% of responding youth report eating three or more meals per day at endline. Employment and Gender Male youth find new employment at higher rates than female youth, and this difference is significant at p<0.000. Only 16.3% of female youth obtained new employment compared to 29.1% of male youth, reflecting a gender gap of about 12.8 percentage points. There is no gender gap for MYDev youth (p=0.583) in terms of better employment, with 50.7% of eligible female MYDev youth and 50.3% of eligible male MYDev youth obtaining improved employment at endline. Employment and Urban/Rural Location While there is some geographic-based variation in rates of new employment, these differences are not statistically significant. About 27% of youth from highly urban areas, about 21% of youth from partially urban areas, and about 24% of youth from rural areas obtained new employment at endline. Similarly, there appears to be no urban/rural gap (p=0.797) for MYDev youth in terms of better employment. The small sample size of eligible youth from each rural area, however, limits the conclusiveness of this finding. Unemployed Youth (FY18/19) At endline, about 62% of MYDev youth reported that they were unemployed. Of those unemployed, about 21% responded that they were looking for work reported utilizing MYDev post-training support including job fairs, coaching and workshops to help youth develop their CVs. Post training support was provided in partnership with local training providers, stakeholders and YDA members. At baseline about one-third of youth cited creating a CV as a way to find work. At endline, this figure increased significantly to about half (p<0.000). Similarly, about 14% of youth reported attending a job fair as a way to find work at baseline. While not statistically significant, at endline, this rate increased 9 percentage points. 22 Figure 19: Ways of Finding Work at Baseline and Endline, Amongst MYDev Youth At baseline, the most common reasons cited by MYDev youth for not looking for work were attending school (28.6%), the lack of jobs which youth reported “there are no jobs” (18.3%), and that they don’t have time to look for work (17.5%). At endline, the most common reason cited by MYDev youth for not looking for work was attending school (46.9%). No youth cited lack of jobs as a reason they weren’t looking for work, which may be indicative of the benefits of MYDev activities in increasing youth’s awareness of available jobs. MYDev’s benefits are further corroborated by the low rate of youth reporting lack of skills (12.1%) and resources (8.1%) as reasons for not looking for work. CONCLUSIONS These evaluations suggest that the MYDev project may positively influence participating youth in key ways. While claims to causality cannot be made, these evaluations do highlight clear areas in which the MYDev project seems to be supporting youth in achieving positive employment, skills, and civic engagement outcomes. Furthermore, the findings of the new dimensions measured in the project extension Performance Evaluation highlight areas of possible future research. YOUTH’S PERCEPTIONS OF VIOLENT EXTREMISM Within the context of conflict-affected Mindanao, generally, and the aftermath of the Marawi siege specifically, MYDev youth’s positive changes in perceptions of violent extremism – away from supporting violence toward supporting peaceful means of conflict resolution – are promising. RESILIENCE SKILLS MYDev youth rated themselves significantly and considerably higher at endline than baseline. While it isn’t possible to speak to these gains conclusively without a comparison group, these findings do highlight the potential of the 37.3% 14.2% 18.6% 7.4% 17.5% 51.3% 23.3% 21.6% 8.2% 19.4% CV or Job Application Attended a Job Fair/Event Applied for a Job Interviewed for a Job Develop a Businessplan Ways of Finding Work at Baseline and Endline Baseline Endline 23 Foundations of Resiliency modules and the further integration of resilience skills into Life Skills training and youth￾led activities. LIFE, WORK READINESS, AND LEADERSHIP SKILLS MYDev youth improve their life skills, work readiness skills, and leadership skills more than non-MYDev youth over the course of their participation in MYDev, suggesting that the MYDev activities that influence skill outcomes may have a positive effect on youth. During FY17 and the extension period, skill gains for MYDev youth were considerable, reflected in effect size values above the conventional threshold. YOUTH’S PERCEPTIONS OF COMMUNITY AND GOVERNMENT MYDev youth demonstrate significant improvements in their perceptions of their communities and government over the comparison group in FY17. These findings are maintained, even in times of declining employment rates, indicating that MYDev programming may foster persistent and deep engagement with the community and government. Findings demonstrating improved perceptions during the extension period further corroborate youth’s engagement in their communities. EMPLOYMENT In the presence of external factors negatively affecting the labor market, as is likely the case in FY17, MYDev may have a soothing effect on youth’s employment, reducing rates of job loss for MYDev youth. While the lack of a comparison group prevents a conclusive finding on the effect of MYDev on youth’s employment during the extension period, the significant increase in overall employment rates between baseline and endline is telling. Furthermore, even amongst youth who have not found employment 4-6 months after graduating from MYDev, MYDev’s programming seems to have positively affected their outcomes. Unemployed MYDev youth less often cite lack of skills as a reason for not looking for work, and they more often cite attending job fairs and developing a CV—a key YDA activity and part of the Life Skills training—as a way of looking for work compared to non-MYDev youth. ANNEX: SAMPLE WEIGHTS Weights for Youth Who Took the Youth Employment Survey The following table of weights applies to all youth who took the YES—regardless of whether or not they took the YPS as well—at both baseline and endline. These weights were used for analysis that examines data from the YES only. Table 2: FY17 Sample Weights Group Population Proportion of population Sample Proportion of sample Weight Intervention Male Highly Urban 565 .17 392 .23 .72 Intervention Male Partially Urban 485 .15 304 .18 .80 24 Intervention Male Rural 930 .28 350 .21 1.33 Intervention Female Highly urban 258 .08 114 .07 1.14 Intervention Female Partially Urban 441 .13 331 .20 .67 Intervention Female rural 650 .20 180 .11 1.81 Comparison Male highly Urban 565 .17 76 .18 .93 Comparison male Partially Urban 485 .15 92 .22 .66 Comparison male rural 930 .28 85 .20 1.37 Comparison Female highly urban 258 .08 24 .06 1.34 Comparison Female Partially Urban 441 .13 56 .13 .98 Comparison female rural 650 .20 83 .20 .98 Table 3: FY18/19 Sample Weights Group Population Proportion of population Sample Proportion of sample Weight Intervention Male Highly Urban 511 .17 103 .13 1.28 Intervention Male Partially Urban 520 .17 132 .17 1.02 Intervention Male Rural 781 .26 176 .22 1.14 Intervention Female Highly urban 211 .07 48 .06 1.13 Intervention Female Partially Urban 435 .14 132 .17 .85 Intervention Female rural 600 .20 198 .25 .78 Weights for Youth Who Took the Youth Perceptions Survey The following table of weights applies to all youth who took the YPS—regardless of whether or not they took the YES as well—at both baseline and endline. These weights were used for analysis that examines data from the YPS only. Table 4: FY17 Sample Weights Group Population Proportion of population Sample Proportion of sample Weight Intervention Male Highly Urban 565 .17 389 .23 .74 Intervention Male Partially Urban 485 .15 301 .18 .82 Intervention Male Rural 930 .28 371 .22 1.28 25 Intervention Female Highly urban 258 .08 126 .07 1.04 Intervention Female Partially Urban 441 .13 327 .19 .69 Intervention Female rural 650 .20 182 .11 1.82 Comparison Male highly Urban 565 .17 114 .27 .62 Comparison male Partially Urban 485 .15 24 .06 2.53 Comparison male rural 930 .28 115 .28 1.01 Comparison Female highly urban 258 .08 33 .08 .98 Comparison Female Partially Urban 441 .13 31 .07 1.78 Comparison female rural 650 .20 100 .24 .81 Table 5 FY18/19 Sample Weights Group Population Proportion of population Sample Proportion of sample Weight Intervention Male Highly Urban 511 .17 104 .13 1.24 Intervention Male Partially Urban 520 .17 132 .17 1.00 Intervention Male Rural 781 .26 164 .21 1.20 Intervention Female Highly urban 211 .07 45 .06 1.19 Intervention Female Partially Urban 435 .14 134 .17 .82 Intervention Female rural 600 .20 194 .25 .78