1
BASELINE STUDY
Community Development and Licit Opportunities 
Program (CDLO)
This publication was produced upon request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was 
prepared independently by the Consulting and Advisory Services Program for Colombia executed by Olgoonik 
Technical Services LLC and completed in October 2018.
2
Coordination Team
Daniel Flechas
Luis Fernando Restrepo
Hugo Navarro
Technical Team
Juanita Parra
Sergio Paez
Laura Amado
Camila Cortes
Field Team (National Consultancy Center)
Cristina Querubin
Carlos Castro
Andres Perdomo
Laura Castro
Jovinton Jaya
Qualitative Field Team (Evaluar)
Pablo Gutierrez
Lucia Llanes
CDLO Program Team 
Francisco Bautista 
Morelca Giraldo
3
Content
List of Acronyms...................................................................................................................5
List of Exhibits.......................................................................................................................6
Figures and Tables ................................................................................................................7
1. Abstract..........................................................................................................................8
2. Executive Summary ......................................................................................................9
3. Introduction .................................................................................................................11
4. Context.........................................................................................................................12
4.1. Problem Description......................................................................................................................... 12
4.2. Political and Economic Environment............................................................................................. 13
4.3. Mission to Transform Colombian’s Rural Areas (MTCC)....................................................... 14
4.4. Rural Development Program with a Territorial Approach (PDET)...................................... 14
4.5. National Plan for Comprehensive Rural Reform (PNRRI) ...................................................... 14
4.6. National Plan for Comprehensive Illegal Crop Substitution (PNIS)...................................... 14
4.7. Illicit Crops.......................................................................................................................................... 15
5. Methodology ................................................................................................................16
5.1. PDET-CDLO Survey......................................................................................................................... 17
5.2. CBS Survey .......................................................................................................................................... 18
5.3. Analysis Plan and Report.................................................................................................................. 19
5.4. Statistical Treatment......................................................................................................................... 20
5.5. Qualitative Treatment ...................................................................................................................... 23
6. The CDLO Population ................................................................................................25
7. Evaluation Questions...................................................................................................29
7.1. Question 1: Context conditions that determine CDLO critical assumptions.................... 30
7.1.1 Weak Government Presence in Rural Areas............................................................................. 30
7.1.2 Communities Affected by the Conflict and Violence............................................................... 32
7.1.3 Presence of Illicit Crops.................................................................................................................. 33
7.1.4 Social and Income Conditions........................................................................................................ 34
7.2. Question 2: Goods and Services for Public and Collective Use ............................................ 37
7.3. Question 3: Physical Connectivity in Rural Households.......................................................... 40
7.4. Question 4: Community participation in providing goods and services for public and 
collective use .................................................................................................................................................... 45
7.5. Question 5: Community engagement through multilevel dialog mechanisms between 
organizations and social networks............................................................................................................... 49
7.6. Question 6: Civil Society Engages in Land Development Decisions ..................................... 51
4
7.7. Question 7: Effects on Social Capital ............................................................................................ 53
7.7.1 Relationships between people and community-based organizations................................ 54
7.7.2 Relationships between the people and the territory............................................................ 57
7.8 Question 8: Economic landscape in CDLO regions.................................................................. 57
7.8.1 Community perception of the situation of cohabitation and citizen security ................ 57
7.8.2 Public institution Legitimacy and Operation........................................................................... 58
7.8.3 Acceptance of the existence of illicit rural economies and the culture of legality........ 60
7.8.4 Household Economic Conditions.............................................................................................. 61
7.8.5 Implications of connectivity restrictions on the low level of competitiveness of legal 
economic activities...................................................................................................................................... 63
7.9 Question 9: Contribution expected from CDLO to the Colombian Government's rural 
development strategy in the intervention territories............................................................................. 63
8. Results Framework Analysis: Rates, Correlations Matrix .......................................66
8.1 Rates Analysis..................................................................................................................................... 66
8.2 CBS Rate Correlation Matrices...................................................................................................... 67
9. Cluster Analysis ...........................................................................................................71
9.1 Objective 1: Community Organizations and Social Capital............................................................ 71
9.2 Objective 2: Goods and Services for Public and Collective Use............................................ 72
9.3 Objective 3: Economic Growth: Regional Conditions.............................................................. 73
9.4 Objective 4: Social Inclusion and Governance............................................................................ 74
10. Answer to the development hypothesis ................................................................76
11. Dashboard.................................................................................................................79
12. Conclusions and Recommendations ......................................................................80
12.1 Conclusions.............................................................................................................................................. 80
12.2 Recommendations.................................................................................................................................. 83
13. Bibliography..............................................................................................................85
5
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ANRT National Land Renovation Agency
CBS CDLO Baseline Study 
CDLO Community Development and Licit Opportunities
DNP National Planning Department
FARC Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
GAML Illegal Outlaw Groups
GOC Government of Colombia
ICBF Colombian Family Welfare Institute
JAC Community Action Boards
MDM
MTCC
Municipal Performance Measurement 
Mission for the Transformation of Colombian Fields
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
PAI Immediate Action Plan
PDET Development Program with a Territorial Approach
PEA Economically Active Population 
PISDA Municipal and Community Comprehensive Plan for Substitution and Alternate 
Development
PNIS National Comprehensive Illegal Crop Substitution Plan 
PNRRI National Plan for a Comprehensive Rural Reform 
6
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Annex 01: Hypothesis on Development and Change Theory
Annex 02: Evaluation Matrix
Annex 03: Evaluation Methodology
Annex 04: Rate Interpretation
Annex 05: CBS and PDET Sample Design 
Annex 06: CBS Questionnaire
Annex 07: PDET Questionnaire 
Annex 08: CBS Data Dictionary
Annex 09: PDET Data Dictionary 
Annex 10: CBS Database
Annex 11: PDET Database
Annex 12: Hermeneutics Unit Database
Annex 13: Code Control
Annex 14: CBS Interview Code System
Annex 15: Field Interview Protocol
Annex 16: CBS Interview Form
Annex 17: CBS Workshop Guidelines
Annex 18: CBS Field Work Final Report
Annex 19: CBS Field Logistics Report
Annex 20: CBS Field Interview Report
Annex 21: CBS Participatory Workshop Report
Annex 22: CBS Field Security Report
Annex 23: CBS Secondary Data Sources (Includes Databases)
Annex 24: Weekly Reports
Annex 25: Dashboard
Annex 26: Cluster Analysis – Statistical Products
Annex 27: Hierarchical Analysis for the Development Hypothesis
Annex 28: Indicators
Annex 29: R Analysis Codes
Annex 30: Dashboards in Tableau
Annex 31: Methodological Study Recommendations
Annex 32: Index Statistics
Annex 33: Matrix CBS Survey in Excel
Annex 34: Matrix Multidimensional and Monetary Poverty in Excel
Annex 35: Notes on Data Reading
Annex 36: General Presentation
Annex 37: CDLO Presentation
Annex 38: Values and Metric Tables
7
FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1: Key Themes in Conflict Zones........................................................................................................ 12
Figure 2: Hypothesis............................................................................................................................................ 13
Figure 3: Population pyramid and universe of households......................................................................... 25
Figure 4: Ethnic Composition of Rural Households - CDLO.................................................................... 26
Figure 5: Figure 3: Ownership and Use of the Property ............................................................................ 27
Figure 6: Access from Home to City Hall...................................................................................................... 28
Figure 7: New Municipal Performance Measurement - Average CDLO Municipalities...................... 31
Figure 8: Ten CDLO Municipalities with the Highest Homicide Rates................................................... 32
Figure 9: Monetary Poverty in Rural Homes - CDLO................................................................................ 36
Figure 10: Food safety ......................................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 11: Access to Public Services................................................................................................................ 38
Figure 12: Garbage and Sanitary Waste Treatment (PDET) ..................................................................... 39
Figure 13: Gap Analysis - Service Coverage for CDLO Rural Households........................................... 40
Figure 14: Access Roads to Households ........................................................................................................ 41
Figure 15: Access Road Quality to Households........................................................................................... 41
Figure 16: General Connectivity Index ........................................................................................................... 44
Figure 17: Issues that the Community Sought to Resolve - CDLO Universe....................................... 46
Figure 18: Forms of Community Associations.............................................................................................. 47
Figure 19: Barriers to Social Engagement....................................................................................................... 47
Figure 20: Perceptions of Community Based Organizations..................................................................... 50
Figure 21: Trust in Institutions.......................................................................................................................... 56
Figure 22: Perception of insecurity .................................................................................................................. 58
Figure 23: Who do you consult with to solve a serious cohabitation problem?.................................. 59
Figure 24: Culture of Illegality ........................................................................................................................... 61
Figure 25: Perception of the municipality’s economic situation................................................................ 62
Figure 26: Correlogram of CDLO Variables................................................................................................. 67
Figure 27: Correlogram of CDLO Variables................................................................................................. 69
Figure 28: Regional Analysis - Social Capital.................................................................................................. 72
Figure 29: Regional Analysis - Provision of Public Goods .......................................................................... 73
Figure 30: Regional Analysis - conditions for economic growth............................................................... 74
Figure 31: Regional Analysis - Social Inclusion and Governance............................................................... 75
Figure 32: Development Hypothesis............................................................................................................... 77
Figure 33: Main Components Analysis of the Development Hypothesis............................................... 78
Table 1.: PDET Sample Design – CDLO ........................................................................................................ 17
Table 2: CBS Sample Design.............................................................................................................................. 19
Table 3: Table 1: Occupancy Activities for Ages Over 10......................................................................... 27
Table 4: Type of Work for Ages Over 10 ..................................................................................................... 27
Table 5: Illicit Crops and the Value Chain...................................................................................................... 33
Table 6: CDLO Multidimensional Poverty Variables................................................................................... 34
Table 7: Total Income of Rural Households.................................................................................................. 35
Table 8: Means of Transportation to each Destination (%)....................................................................... 42
Table 9: Transportation Time ........................................................................................................................... 42
Table 10: Transportation Costs........................................................................................................................ 43
Table 11: Most Dispersed Municipality: Santa Barbara ............................................................................... 45
Table 12: Rate Results......................................................................................................................................... 66
Table 13: Rates and Dimensions of the Development Hypothesis.......................................................... 77
8
1. ABSTRACT
The Baseline Study (CBS) of the Community Development Licit Opportunities (CDLO) program 
was conducted between March and October 2018 with the purpose of collecting a set of useful data
to plan the program's performance and evaluate the progress of the products with regard to the 
expected outcomes. This information includes a set of sociodemographic, economic, and 
institutional data ordered systematically under the theory of change and following the program’s 
development hypothesis. The study used mixed methods (surveys, in-depth interviews, and 
participatory workshops) to investigate the conditions of rural households and community 
organizations in the territory. The coverage area is 45 municipalities that share critical conditions 
(assumptions), a low government presence, the effects of the conflict on the population and 
territory, high degrees of marginalization, and precarious living conditions, along with the presence 
of illicit crops. Multivariate analyses were carried out using correlations, hierarchical cluster analysis, 
and principal component analysis to investigate the interaction between the variables of citizen 
security, social capital, and territorial governance. The main conclusions of the study reflect that the 
critical assumptions were confirmed along with the negative impact they have on the conditions of 
social capital and territorial governance. 
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The Baseline Study (CBS) of the Community Development Licit Opportunities (CDLO) program 
was conducted between March and October 2018 to collect a set of useful data for planning the 
program's performance and evaluating the progress of the products with regard to the expected 
outcomes. This information includes a set of sociodemographic, economic, and institutional data 
ordered systematically according to the theory of change and the program’s development 
hypothesis. 
The study used mixed methods (surveys, in-depth interviews, and participatory workshops) to 
investigate the conditions of rural households and community organizations in the territory. The 
coverage area is 45 municipalities that share critical conditions (assumptions), a low government 
presence, the effects of the conflict on the population and territory, high degrees of marginalization, 
and precarious living conditions, along with the presence of illicit crops. The surveys were carried 
out in rural households, following the DANE (National Administrative Department of Statistics) 
definition of rurality, which represents approximately 920,000 people according to DANE 2017 
projections. The PDET survey (1,525 observations) was used to cover the CDLO universe with 
regional representativeness, and a survey was performed (2,441 observations) on social capital, 
connectivity, citizen security, and territorial governance to emphasize the CDLO core issues. The 
combination of these two qualitative instruments was enhanced with 100 in-depth interviews with 
community leaders and eight participatory workshops. 
The representative household in CDLO regions is comprised of 3.72 people and the likelihood of 
the head of household being male is 62%. The average age of the head of household is 45. There are 
high levels of multidimensional poverty and monetary poverty. The household gaps in education are 
high, indicating that the CDLO zones are always below the national rural average, including access 
to basic utilities such as electricity, water, sewer systems, and garbage collection. The average 
income per capita is $281,250 pesos and 46% of households are under moderate poverty conditions, 
and 32% of households are in conditions of extreme poverty, while the national average is 15%. 
There is a difference in gender-based roles. Women are mostly tasked with home care (raising 
children, education, and health) and 40% perform household chores, while only 3% of men are 
involved. There is a risk regarding food security. Fifty-seven percent of households have severe or 
moderate food insecurity, showing the availability of food and its quality to meet minimum livelihood 
requirements. Physical connectivity for rural households from their residence to six points of 
reference reflects the level of dispersion and access difficulties. On average, they spend an hour 
traveling to the mayor's office and it costs them approximately $30,000 pesos, or 11% of their 
monthly income. The most used means of transportation in these territories is motorcycles and 
boats for long trips, and on foot for short trips. This confirms the gap between rural and urban areas 
in the country, and also shows that CDLO is intervening in the poorest areas of the country. These 
levels of marginalization increase the communities’ vulnerability to the threats of illegality in terms 
of security and illicit economies. 
The social capital in these territories is affected by the conditions of marginalization, quality of life, 
and the conflict’s negative effects. Although territories are deeply rooted, that is, the people who 
live there are resistant and have been in their municipality for an average of 20 years, this is partly 
due to high rates of resilience and adaptation to difficulties and changes in their environment. The 
effects of displacement and depopulation in the field are notorious in the population pyramid, 
reflecting a high degree of contraction in the population between the ages of 15 to 40. Trust rates 
are very low; people trust one out of every three people, which may be influenced by the levels of 
insecurity with which they live. This fact is key in creating social fabric and rebuilding relationships 
10
between each other and with external agents such as the government or private companies. This 
contrasts with the high willingness to participate in public matters; however, low levels of social 
capital affect sustainability and continuity in their participation. Even with these difficulties, people 
are positive, optimistic, and proactive in solving problems. 
Community organization is strong, mainly focused around community action boards as the key 
player in the territory. Community councils, indigenous councils, parent associations, sports and 
women’s organizations, are other key expressions. The issues that communities seek to resolve 
when grouped collectively revolve around public utilities, road infrastructure, education, housing, 
health, and the environment; that is, the rural agenda revolves around improving basic household 
living conditions. 
The security conditions in the territory are not yet stable. Twenty-three percent of households 
believe that there is a presence of illegal, armed, outlaw groups; common criminals (robberies and 
muggings) are the number two cause of insecurity in the territories, followed by displacement, 
murder, and extortion. This outlook contrasts with the low rates of police services, where only 6% 
of households use them when they have a serious co-habitation problem. This phenomenon hints 
at the informal solutions to which people resort when they have issues to resolve, mainly 
approaching the Community Action Boards and very seldom the local authorities, partly due to the 
lack of coverage and official presence, and partly due to lack of effectiveness in the actions or 
willingness to respond to citizen requests. This creates an environment of "informality" outside the 
Rule of Law that should cover these territories and leaves local governance in the hands of illegal 
parties. 
Hierarchical cluster analyses were performed, where groups of municipalities were created to verify 
similarities or dissimilarities with regard to the variables of interest. The main finding was that the 
program had two large groups of municipalities that consistently had low levels of social capital, 
community organization, citizen security, and territorial governance. This group of municipalities is 
located on the Pacific coast of Nariño and Cauca. Conversely, there is another group of 
municipalities that consistently showed better performance in their indicators and variables, led by 
those located in central and southern Caqueta, Meta, and Guaviare. This location allows for creating 
differentiated intervention strategies given the territories’ biophysical, cultural, social, and economic 
characteristics.
Lastly, multivariate analyses were performed to establish positive or negative relationships between 
variables and clarify the general development hypothesis. The evidence confirms the relationship 
between strengthening social capital in rural households and its effect on the conditions for inclusive 
economic and social development. However, the critical assumptions are key in determining 
strategies and progress for the core aspects of CDLO, given that they are beyond the scope of the 
program and are a prerequisite from a developmental standpoint. The security and territorial 
governance conditions are decisive in establishing strategies that accommodate these exogenous 
conditions in the program's implementation. The main conclusions of the study show that the critical 
assumptions were confirmed along with the negative impact they have on the conditions of social 
capital and territorial governance. This baseline study provides sufficient and relevant information 
for the program's decision-making in planning activities based on the scope of the results. With this 
information, the territories can be seen in their various demographic, social, institutional, and 
economic dimensions, providing tools so decision makers can understand, plan, and assess scarce 
resource allocation with better precision. 
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3. INTRODUCTION
This document contains the results of the CDLO Baseline Study (CBS). By definition, a performance 
baseline is "...the value of the performance indicator before implementing projects or activities 
supported by USAID, which help achieve relevant results..."1 The purpose of the CBS is to gather 
information that will become the basis for evaluating the progress of the products and performance 
towards the expected results, compiling relevant information on variables of regional socioeconomic 
development and on the institutional conditions in areas affected by the conflict, and offer a 
comprehensive analysis that allows for decision-making. This tool allows management to monitor
progress and identify the risks in the results of the CDLO. Likewise, this tool serves to analyze 
regional development factors and aids in decision-making when working with communities.
This study is designed focusing on the theory of change, which it uses to extract illustrative 
developmental hypotheses (Annex 01). The hypotheses are written as logical propositions. These 
propositions provide the Components, Dimensions, and Variables, or Evaluation Matrix (Annex 02). The 
Theory of Change works in an environment that imposes certain critical assumptions. The Evaluation 
Matrix includes the main evaluation questions to be answered by the CBS. These questions include 
a dataset capacity interpretation and its scope. The CBS Evaluation Methodology includes a 
description of the analysis units and levels, namely households, community organizations, and farmer
associations, and presents the mixed method approach, explaining the data collection tools (surveys, 
in-depth interviews, and focus groups) and analytical techniques. The annexes contain the protocols, 
tools, and data from primary and secondary sources (Annexes 15-17). The data sets comply with 
USAID data quality standards in terms of their validity, reliability, precision, integrity, and timeliness.2
CBS formulates the metrics and measurements with this information, which in turn provides
information on the context and implementation thereof, using indicators (Annex 28).
CBS provides descriptions of the key variables and challenges that CDLO faces based on its Theory 
of Change. The program's context and subject matter are described in the introduction and context, 
including the operating environment and the situational context. The methodology chapter provides 
the baseline research methods and protocols, describing the steps so this study can be replicated. 
The next chapter presents the CDLO Population in demographic and socioeconomic terms. Then, the 
results are presented, answering the evaluation questions, followed by a multivariate data analysis 
using correlation matrices. Then a cluster analysis is done using a thematic aggregation criterion for 
program objectives and then analyzing groups of municipalities. The next chapter provides a 
response to the hypothesis in terms of the relationship between groups of variables. Lastly, a 
program management tool is presented, to serve as an input for planning activities according to an 
objective, given time, budgetary, and logistic restrictions. The document closes with conclusions and 
recommendations.
 
1 ADS 203.3.4.5 Establishing Performance Baselines and Objectives
2 TIPS No. 12: Data Quality Standards
12
4. CONTEXT 
4.1. Problem Description
Evidence suggests that more than 52 years of internal armed conflict have weakened rural 
communities in various ways, in highly affected regions. In particular, there has been a significant 
effect on social capital, which has led to a reduction in citizen engagement in community 
organizations, municipal affairs, and the local democratic process.3 The armed conflict damages trust 
between communities, destroys social relationships, and weakens existing institutions. The 
communities affected by the conflict have a deficiency in their social networks, given that the existing 
ones are very few, weak in structure and in standards of trust, essential factors in reaching common 
goals and gaining mutual benefit. Thus, building social capital is a key component in achieving social, 
community, and economic development in post-conflict community scenarios.
In the regions affected by the conflict in Colombia, the lack of social capital is largely derived from 
violence, as well as from the weak presence of the government and its limited capacity to offer basic 
services and legal opportunities. These conditions are favorable for the emergence of illicit 
economies, particularly drug production and trafficking. These chains of events reinforce each other, 
perpetuating the phenomenon of illegality and poverty.
The Colombian Government's 
focus on land provides a unique 
opportunity to promote the 
restoration of social capital 
through by creating trust, 
promoting citizen engagement in 
local affairs, reducing coca 
production, and promoting 
community development. The 
government's vision of 
comprehensive rural reform 
deploys the mechanisms for its 
structural adjustment, including 
land access and formalization, 
increasing rural economic 
productivity, providing 
infrastructure, food security, and 
focus on the most affected 
regions. The regions affected by the conflict follow these patterns: (a) the effects of violence, (b) 
weakened institutions and public presence, (c) the presence of illegal activities, (d) severe conditions 
that lead to a high degree of multidimensional poverty, and (e) low quality living conditions. 
 
3 Document: Community Development and Licit Opportunities (CDLO) Activity. Activity Monitoring, Evaluation, and 
Learning Plan - AMELP: United States Agency for International Development by Tetra Tech. November 2017
Effects from 
violence
Weakened 
institutions and 
public presence
Presence of Illicit 
Activities
Multidimensional 
poverty
Living Conditions
Figure 1: Key Themes in Conflict Zones
13
4.2. Political and Economic Environment
The CDLO program is a rural development initiative financed by USAID/Colombia that seeks to 
enhance the efforts of the Government of Colombia in terms of promoting and creating conditions 
for a legal economy in the target areas. The program began in August 2017 and runs until August 
2022. It seeks to enhance the capacity of rural communities affected by the conflict to become 
reliable and effective partners of the government and the private sector in defining and implementing 
comprehensive rural development initiatives with a territorial vision. The program’s action strategy 
is aimed at achieving territorial impact, for which it uses coordination systems with government, 
cooperation, and private sector initiatives. The program has prioritized three regions4 covering 45 
municipalities in eight departments: Antioquia, Caqueta, Cauca, Cordoba, Guaviare, Meta, Nariño 
and Putumayo.5 CDLO focuses on (i) strengthening social capital, (ii) providing public and collective 
goods and services, (iii) fostering a positive economic environment, and (iv) facilitating dialogue 
between communities, the government, and the private sector. These are the key components 
under the concept of rural territorial development using a systemic and holistic approach. The 
program’s hypothesis is immersed in a national and local political reality that is described below. 
Figure 2: Hypothesis
The development hypothesis gathers the main underlying elements: "the armed conflict has a 
negative impact on trust between communities, destroys social relationships, and weakens existing 
institutions (s1). The communities inhabiting the regions affected by conflict lack social networks 
and standards of trust to facilitate the coordination and cooperation that will allow them to reach 
common goals and mutual benefits (s2). Thus, building social capital is a key component in achieving 
social, community, and economic development in post-conflict community scenarios. In the affected 
regions, the lack of social capital is a reflection of the armed conflict (s3), as well as the weak 
presence of a government that struggles in supplying basic services and legal economic opportunities 
 
4CDLO had originally planned for 4 regions and 51 municipalities: the Catatumbo region and its 6 prioritized 
municipalities were excluded from this study for security reasons (See Annex 22).
5 Idem
(s1) Weakens institutions
(s1) Destroys social networks
(s1) Distrust
(s2) Lack of cooperation
(s2) Poor coordination
(s4) Absence of legal economic 
opportunities
Illicit Rural Economy
Poverty
+
Conflict
(s3) Lack of Social Capital
14
(s4). The latter feeds an illicit rural economy, particularly illicit drugs in their entire production chain 
(growing, producing, and trafficking) (s5). These chains of events are strengthened in a destructive 
way, contributing to the perpetuity of conflict and poverty (s6)."6
4.3. Mission to Transform Colombian’s Rural Areas (MTCC)
The Mission to Transform Colombia’s Rural Areas, directed by the National Planning Department 
(DNP), has set a framework of public policies that will orient government actions for the next two 
decades, with the purpose of fostering rural and agricultural development in the country.7 This 
political planning exercise intends to offer long term directives to the national rural development 
strategy. To this end, the MTCC assessed five essential aspects in rural development: (1) the 
contribution of rural areas to national development, (2) the social gaps between urban and rural 
communities; (3) the delivery of public goods and services in rural areas, (4) competitiveness and 
environmental sustainability in agriculture, and (5) the systems of governance underlying rural 
development.
4.4. Rural Development Program with a Territorial Approach (PDET)
This program is planned for a period of ten years (2017-2027) and relies on a strong participation 
by local stakeholders in designing and implementing their local solutions to development challenges.8
The program is implemented by the National Land Renovation Agency (ANRT) and is oriented in 
three dimensions: first, productive and social planning; second, establishing and improving public 
utilities; and third, human capital. PDET implements capacity building activities to improve the 
employability of rural citizens, as well as their own capacity for sustainability. PDET has prioritized 
16 subregions for the intervention according to the following criteria: (i) poverty levels, particularly 
extreme poverty and unsatisfied basic needs; (ii) the degree of impact of the internal armed conflict 
on the communities; (iii) institutional government and administrative performance; and (iv) the 
presence of illicit crops and illegal economies.
4.5. National Plan for Comprehensive Rural Reform (PNRRI)
Point 1.3 of the Peace Agreement between the Colombian Government and the FARC presents the 
design and implementation of the PNRRI. The PNRRI, together with the PDET, seeks to change the 
living conditions of the rural population in Colombia. PNRRI has three components including: (1) 
infrastructure, roads, sewer systems, electricity, (2) social development, access to education, health, 
housing, and potable water in rural areas, (3) economic and agricultural development, promoting 
cooperatives, technical assistance, income generation programs, access to credit, employment 
formalization, and food security.
4.6. National Plan for Comprehensive Illegal Crop Substitution (PNIS)
Another tool promoted in the Peace Agreement is the National Plan for Comprehensive Illegal Crop 
Substitution (PNIS), based on participatory building and development processes through community 
assemblies. It is implemented in territories where agreements have been made on the voluntary 
substitution of illicit crops and not re-seeding or illegal trade. The PNIS is comprised of the 
Integrated Plan for Community and Municipal Substitution and Alternative Development (PISDA) 
 
6 Ibid.
7 https://www.dnp.gov.co/programas/agricultura/Paginas/mision-para-la-transformacion-del-campo-colombiano.aspx
8 http://www.renovacionterritorio.gov.co/especiales/especial_PDET/
15
(utilities, security, social development, infrastructure) and the Immediate Response Plan (PAI) with 
a family and community approach.
4.7. Illicit Crops
In the Final Agreement to End the Conflict and Build a Stable and Lasting Peace signed in 2016, points 1 
and 4, Comprehensive Rural Reform, and Illegal Crop Substitution, respectively, give relevance to 
the population not only as a beneficiary of the actions of the government, but also recognize the 
communities as direct representatives with the government on policies at the local level. Point 2 of 
the Agreement, relating to spaces for political participation and enhancing social organizations and 
movements, focuses on developing such mechanisms. 
The Peace Agreement privileges voluntary substitution over other forms of eradication such as 
spraying chemical agents and forced manual eradication, and "when there is no agreement with the 
communities, the government will proceed to eradicate illegal crops, prioritizing manual eradication 
when possible, and considering the respect for human rights, the environment, health, and well￾being. When substitution is not possible, the government will not waive the use of instruments it 
determines to be more effective, including spraying, to ensure the eradication of illegal crops. The 
FARC-EP believe that whenever there is eradication, it must be manual".9
Proposal 195 of the package of security initiatives in presidential candidate Ivan Duque's campaign 
plans, cites security in the countryside and emphasizes that, with the presence of Public Forces, the 
strengthening of the Rural Police, the Environmental Police, and the Armed Forces, security and 
development conditions will be ensured for the rural population. This document mentions that 
eradication must be mandatory, based not only on police capacity or the authority of the 
government, but that it must also be done together with the alternative development of other crops 
and investment in public assets so that coca farmers have alternatives. Currently, the implementation 
of the Program Against Illicit Crops was incorporated into the mission of the Administrative Unit 
for Territorial Consolidation to launch CONPES Document 3669 of July 2010, which establishes a 
National Policy for the Manual Eradication of Illicit Crops and Alternative Development. 
 
9 The Final Agreement to End the Conflict and Build a Stable and Lasting Peace (2016) 
http://www.altocomisionadoparalapaz.gov.co/procesos-y-conversaciones/Documentos%20compartidos/24-11-
2016NuevoAcuerdoFinal.pdf
16
5. METHODOLOGY
This chapter describes in detail the methodology that was used in the study. First, CBS identified 
the relationship between CDLO and the USAID Colombia results framework established in the 
Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS), the explicit CDLO theory of change and its 
development hypothesis (Annex 01). CBS created an Evaluation Matrix (Annex 02) based on this 
effort, containing the dimensions, categories, and variables, together with their sources of 
information relating to the intervention. 
Second, the collection instruments were designed. CDLO’s implementation involves a variety of 
stakeholders that require independent measurement techniques in accordance with the observation 
units. CBS identified rural households10, community organizations, producer organizations, 
municipalities, and other aspects. For the former, a household survey was used (Annex 06: CBS 
Questionnaire and Annex 07: PDET Questionnaire). In-depth interviews were conducted for the 
organizations, with leaders identified by CDLO in each region (Annex 15: Field Protocol and Annex 
16: Interview Form), and participatory workshops were held with community, social, and farming 
organizations (Annex 17: CBS Workshop Instructions). The basic conditions of the municipalities 
and regions were established by using secondary sources (Annex 23: Secondary Data Sources). 
Third, data collection was done via surveys, in-depth interviews, participatory workshops, and 
secondary sources. The field logistics report (Annex 19) and the weekly reports (Annex 24) describe 
how field operations took place. Given the security incidents that directly affected the survey’s 
completion, a special document was created to report the events and account for adjustments to 
the sample (Annex 22: Field Security Report).
Fourth, information analysis was done, and the final report was created. The following were the 
goals that oriented the analysis: (i) answering the evaluation questions, (ii) answering the question 
about the hypothesis, (iii) answering the question on the land zoning program, and (iv) designing a 
management tool for planning and allocating resources according to the general objectives of the 
Program (Annex 25: Dashboard). 
Next, the methodology used to design the household surveys is presented in detail. The CBS team 
proposed an information collaboration between the PDET and CBS surveys, taking the following 
advantages into account: (1) the PDET study was done on the same range of dates; and (2) the 
CDLO universe was included in PDET. These two advantages allowed for using PDET socio￾demographic variables and focusing the CBS questionnaire on issues of social capital, perception of 
land governance, engagement, and citizen security.
 
10 The DANE definition of Rural Area or Remaining Municipal Areas: it is characterized by the dispersed layout 
of the homes and agricultural operations existing in it. It does not have the layout or nomenclature of streets, 
roads, avenues, and others. In general, it also does not have public utilities and other facilities found in urban 
areas. https://www.dane.gov.co/files/inf_geo/4Ge_ConceptosBasicos.pdf
17
5.1. PDET-CDLO Survey
The Land Renovation Agency (ANRT) carried out a survey between May and July 2018 with a sample
of 176 municipalities divided into 16 subregions. PDET's survey sought to measure the quality of life 
in the areas affected by the conflict and those where the implementation of peace agreements was
taking place. Life conditions were 
measured by each home's 
condition, the provision of public 
goods, internet access, housing, 
and land possession, household 
composition, access to health 
and education, labor conditions, 
food security, financial inclusion, 
social capital, reconciliation, 
connectivity, access to justice, 
and human rights indicators. 
PDET’s sample design for the 
CDLO universe (rural homes) is 
divided into three regions 
(central, north and south) for a 
total of 1,287 surveys; 244 of 
them belong to the workforce 
sub-sample. The overlap of 
municipalities between CBS and 
PDET is graphically visible in the 
map (Annex 03: Geographic 
Coverage). By design, PDET has 
a workforce chapter in which all 
household members over 10 
years of age were interviewed to 
estimate basic family conditions, 
and the multidimensional 
poverty and financial conditions. 
Table 1.: PDET Sample Design – CDLO
Coverage Universe Overlap PDET – CDLO = 45 municipalities 
(rural households)
Sample Design
Three stages:
(1) Select municipalities from the 45
(2) Select cartographic units by municipality 
(3) Select households within the units
18
Sample Size 1,281 surveys
241 sub-samples of the workforce component
Databases The data set accounts for rural households distributed 
by Central, North and South regions.
Expansion Factors
The expansion factors of each household allow for 
reaching the total dispersed rural population in the 
CDLO universe of municipalities and breakdown at the 
regional level.
Aggregation Rule
PDET data is aggregated (expanded) by: 
(1) the level of the 3 regions studied
(3) CDLO universe
Confidence Level and Margin 
of Error
Estimates with 95% reliability and maximum sampling 
error of 3.1% when the ratios obtained in the results 
are close to 0.5.
What can be said? Households located in the disperse rural areas of the 
CDLO universe (or of these three regions). 
5.2. CBS Survey
The total CBS sample has 2,418 households and adults were interviewed in the 45 selected 
municipalities. The national geostatistical framework provides databases with municipal maps. 
Individuals over the age of 18, residing in the observational unit according to DANE estimates for 
2017 in the following municipalities: El Carmen, Timbiqui, Santa Barbara, Vistahermosa, Solano, El 
Tarra, Piamonte, Guapi, Miraflores, Francisco Pizarro, Taraza, Belen De Los Andaquies, Convencion, 
Samaniego, San Jose Del Guaviare, El Charco, La Montañita, Puerto Asis, Cumbitara, El Tambo, 
Roberto Payan, Caceres, Briceño, Montelibano, El Retorno, El Rosario, Barbacoas, Valdivia, Olaya 
Herrera, La Macarena, Calamar, Puerto Rico , Lopez De Micay, Puerto Leguizamo, Tibu, Puerto 
Guzman, Policarpa, Sardinata, Argelia, Valle Del Guamuez, San Miguel, Puerto, Caicedo, Orito, Milan, 
San Andres De Tumaco, Puerto Libertador, Teorama, Tierralta, Villagarzon, San Jose Del Fragua, 
Magui. 
The sample design is probabilistic, stratified into two stages; it considered taking all the municipalities 
of the three defined geographical regions in the sample. A simple random sample of settlements was 
established in each municipality, and lastly, households were selected in each settlement (a simple 
random sample thereof). 
19
Table 2: CBS Sample Design
Coverage CBS Universe = 45 municipalities (rural households)
Sample Design
Two stages: 
(1) The cartographic units were established in each 
municipality and those for scattered rural areas 
were randomly selected.
(2) Within each, a household was selected with 
simple random sampling.
Sample Size 2,418 surveys
Database A database with 2,418 dispersed rural surveys 
representing households in 45 municipalities. 
Expansion Factors
The expansion factors of each survey allow for 
reaching the total dispersed rural population in the 
CDLO universe of municipalities and breakdown at
the regional, sub-regional, and municipal level. 
Aggregation Rule
CBS data can be added (expanded) to: 
(1) the dispersed rural municipal level
(2) the three CDLO regions (Central, North, and 
South)
(3) the CDLO universe
Confidence Level and 
Margin of Error
Estimates with 95% reliability and maximum 
sampling error of 2.2% when the ratios obtained in 
the results are close to 0.5.
What can be said? Households living in dispersed rural areas in 
municipality X (or aggregates in region Y).
5.3. Analysis Plan and Report
CBS developed a five-step analysis plan: a preliminary analysis, data collection, data mining, coding, 
and a final analysis. The purpose of the first two steps is to ensure information quality. The third and 
fourth steps are for organizing and preparing the data for analysis. The fifth step is for preparing 
reports and presentations. 
Stage 1a: Preliminary Review of the Questionnaire; this stage was for producing a questionnaire with the 
best possible quality. The best questions from previous questionnaires were identified using the 
criteria of variability and missing data. All answers where the percentage of missing data (NA) was 
20
below 20% and the coefficient over 0.15 were classified as useful. The pilot test for the questionnaire 
allowed for adjusting the language, time frames, relevance of the questions, and skipped questions in 
the questionnaire.11 Stage 1b: In-Depth Interview Questionnaire and Participatory Workshops Guidelines; 
in this stage, the questionnaire was used according to the CBS Evaluation Matrix and guidelines for 
the participatory workshops. 
Stage 2a: Surveys collection; in this stage, the surveys were collected, and this time was used to set up 
the analysis structures based on the nine CBS evaluation questions. In turn, partial analyses were 
done to review the quality of the information. Stage 2b: Collection of Interviews and Participatory 
Workshops; during this stage, in-depth interviews were collected, and participatory workshops 
were held. Interview coding also began, and the field reports of the workshops were prepared. 
Stage 3a: Data mining; review of the databases. The percentages of missing data and variability 
coefficients were reviewed for each question to determine strengths and weaknesses in the 
databases. The most robust questions were chosen for composing the final rates. Stage 3b: Interview 
and Workshop Coding; the code tree developed by CBS was used as a reference (Annex 14) and
allowed for creating new emerging categories as analysts reviewed the interviewers' audio files and 
notes. 
Stage 4a: Data analysis, CBS performed (i) a univariate analysis that included the statistical description 
of the questionnaire’s variables, (ii) a multivariate analysis that included a Main Component Analysis 
for composing the indices and rates derived from the questionnaire, correlation matrices to find 
relationships between variables according to expert intuition and hierarchical cluster analysis to find 
regional similarities and differences. Stage 4b: Qualitative analysis; includes the statistical analysis of 
the codes and the behaviors of the appointments. The answers and narratives are sought based on 
the above to provide content to the evaluation questions. 
Stage 5a: Preparing argumentation; building and reading rates and qualitative arguments based on 
questions, as well as cluster analysis and key questions. Stage 5b: Writing, graphics, and 
presentations; drafting arguments, sections, and simultaneously producing statistical, economic, and 
theory of change analyses.
5.4. Statistical Treatment
This section of the CBS evaluation is in two parts: (i) the univariate analysis that includes a 
description of the individual variables of the questionnaire, and (ii) a multivariate analysis that 
includes a description of a set of variables. The quantitative data was analyzed in R statistical suite 
(Annex 29: Analysis Codes in R)
ia. Univariate analysis. Descriptive Statistics Index. This first procedure involves analyzing each 
variable individually and observing its descriptive statistics. This analysis can be represented 
graphically in relative frequency tables with bar or line graphs.
ib. Univariate analysis. Rate Construction. CBS built a set of quantitative measures (rates) that 
represent a relationship between the quantity and the frequency of a group of numbers associated 
with the key variables of the CBS Design Matrix based on the CDLO survey database (Annex 04). 
This annex includes the formulas for creating the rates for future replication. As presented in the 
 
11The pilot test for the surveys, interviews, and participatory workshops was carried out in the municipality 
of Pacho, Cundinamarca. The surveys were carried out in the dispersed rural area, while in-depth interviews 
and participatory workshops were held in the urban area.
21
annex, there are rates at which the increase is desirable (positive), for example the confidence rate, 
where the more confidence the better. There are others in which the increase is undesirable 
(negative), for example the homicide rate, the more homicides the worse. In positive rates, zero 
marks a negative extreme and one represents a positive extreme. Conversely, in rates that are 
negative, zero marks a positive extreme and one a negative extreme. These rates are built based on 
the variables identified according to CDLO's theory of change, its respective results framework, and 
the required metrics. The rates were created complying with three methodological criteria: (a) the 
quality of questions - missing values and variability coefficient, (b) the quality of the measurement, 
the cleanliness in the linear combination of data to maintain simplicity, (c) the direct interpretation 
with questions in the survey to achieve the best calibration between intuition, the results, and to 
avoid cognitive challenges.
iia. Multivariate Analysis - Data Exploration: Correlation Matrix. The main multivariate analysis uses 
exploratory data techniques or statistical data analysis. CBS uses these techniques for pattern 
recognition, graphical analysis, and data compression. CBS built a Correlation Matrix to identify high 
and low correlations in variables, and the first hypothesis intuitions and evaluation questions. The 
correlation matrix has a size of 𝑛 × 𝑛, where n is the number of variables. The correlation between 
variables (for example, trust, citizen services, inclusion, etc.) is determined by the non-parametric 
Spearman12 correlation coefficient given by: 
𝜌𝑋,𝑌 = 1 −
6 ∑ 𝐷
2
𝑁(𝑁2 − 1)
When D is the difference between the respective x-y order statistics. N is the number of data pairs. 
The coefficient takes values -1 and 1; if the correlation coefficient between variable X and variable 
Y takes value -1, it means that they are negatively correlated; when one increases, the other 
decreases proportionally. When is equal to zero, it means that there is no correlation between the 
two variables, and when it is equal to one, it means there is a total positive correlation between 
them. 
iib. Multivariate Analysis - Data Exploration: Cluster Analysis. Given the importance of the territorial 
approach in CDLO's strategy, the program developed a multivariate analysis that allows for 
clustering a set of objects (municipalities) in such a way that objects in the same cluster have similar 
variables between them and they distance themselves from those of other clusters. The best 
advantage of this technique are the intuitive and descriptive properties (there are no inferential 
properties). Cluster analysis, also known as data segmentation, seeks to organize data under natural 
hierarchies.
The main hypothesis to be tested is the extent to which the variables show geographic differences, 
or even to a more profound degree; in which objects are geographic clusters present, and which 
share a similar behavior across thematic units. The general notion of cluster analysis is to group 
members with short distances between them, dense areas of data space, intervals, or specific 
distributions. One of the key elements here is to define the function of distance, the density 
threshold, or the number of expected clusters. This is a typical data exploration technique and 
therefore, an iterative process of property discovery. In summary, CDLO cluster analysis will allow 
us to determine if there are geographical differences and similarities between the variables. 
 
12This correlation coefficient was selected because of its non-parametric nature. In other words, it does not assume any 
distribution for the pair of variables x, y. It is also robust against the presence of outliers because it provides a monotonous 
measure of relationships that compares order statistics which prevents it from being sensitive to atypical data. 
22
Measure of Differences. Given a matrix X of size 𝑁𝑥𝑃, where N is the number of observed 
individuals and P the number of observed variables. Each individual in the household, annotated by 
𝑥𝑖
, is a vector with P components. Therefore, the distance between two individuals 𝑥𝑖
; 𝑥𝑖
′
is given 
by: 
𝑑(𝑥𝑖
, 𝑥𝑖
′
) = ∑ (𝑥𝑖𝑗 − 𝑥𝑖𝑗
′
)
2 𝑃
𝑗=1
Where d (.) represents the Euclidean distance between the two vectors. This is how the matrix of 
differences adjusts to size 𝑁𝑥𝑁; which has the distances between all possible pairs (Hastie, 2009).
K-Media Algorithm: This is based on a reduction method based on Euclidean distances. Procedure: 
(1) choose K individuals randomly where their components will me the first means {𝑚1, . . . , 𝑚𝐾}
(2) given the vector average per cluster of K individuals, the Euclidean distance is estimated for each 
individual between its position and the average value of cluster K. (3) each observation is assigned 
to the nearest mean; that is: 
𝐶(𝑖) = 𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑚𝑖𝑛1≤𝑘≤𝐾𝑑(𝑥𝑖
, 𝑚𝑘)
(4) choose other K individuals and repeat steps 2 and 3; (5) the procedure is repeated until the 
assignments per household do not change. 
Since the K-means algorithm depends on certain initial values (Step 1 of the algorithm), it is normal 
to find the values based on Ward's criteria13, in this case the vectors {𝑥𝑖
}𝑖=1
𝑁 . Ward's distance 
between 2 elements to classify i and j is given by: 
𝑊(𝑖,𝑗) =
𝑚𝑖 𝑚𝑗
𝑚𝑖 + 𝑚𝑗
∗ 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡(𝑥𝑖
, 𝑥𝑗)
2
Where 𝑚𝑖
and 𝑚𝑗
are associated weights, usually all individuals have the same weight (1/N) but it 
may be another value, and 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡 (𝑥𝑖
, 𝑥𝑗
) is the distance between them. Thus, the strategy is: with N 
elements, the following is done: (1) Calculate the distance matrix between all elements; (2) Join pair 
i, j that has a minimum Ward distance. The couple is represented by its average and the total 
elements is decreased by one; (3) Repeat steps 1 and 2 until the last pair is joined and the set of 
elements in a single group is completed. As stated above, the number of clusters can be prefixed 
and therefore the above algorithm can be stopped when the complete set of individuals is cataloged 
in K groups.
iic. Multivariate Analysis - Data Exploration: Main Component Analysis. The third multivariable 
technique is called main component analysis (ACP). The goal is to reduce the dimensionality of a set 
of information with a certain number of correlated variables, while maintaining as much variability 
as possible. This technique is also used to represent data so that objects can be identified graphically. 
Given that ACP is based on variability, the technique uses linear dependence based on the variance￾covariance matrix between the variables in the study. This procedure uses linear transformation to 
convert a set of observations of possibly correlated variables into a set of linearly independent values 
called main components. In other words, this space reduction technique finds dependent linearity 
between the variables of the datasets and reduces the system to the minimum feasible or linear 
independence where the main components are identified. The transformation is defined so that the 
 
13 The procedure is presented in Lebart et. al. (1995)
23
first main component has the highest possible variance and in turn, each subsequent component has 
the highest possible variance, and so on. The best advantage of this technique is that it explains the 
highest possible variability in the data; which in turn is ideal for building the indices because of its 
sensitivity. The only restriction is that there should be more observations than variables; this 
assumption should not be a problem given the size of the CBS sample (Jolliffe, 2002). To estimate 
the indices, first ACP standardized the indicators (center and scale change) using z scores that have 
a mean equal to zero and a standard deviation of one. This process ensures that the indicators are 
comparable in scale when added to a component or index level. The ACP helps to account for the 
overlap in measurement and the concept between indicators, preserving the core component of the 
data to which each indicator contributes in a unique way.
5.5. Qualitative Treatment
The qualitative analysis unit is organization. Community, local public, and private organizations are 
included. The participants in the qualitative sample, both in the in-depth interviews and in the 
participatory workshops, were chosen intentionally, not randomly. CBS sought different 
perspectives on the social, productive, and community processes that have been occurring in the 
studied municipalities (see Annex 20).In contrast with the quantitative component in which data are 
collected from individuals, qualitatively, organizations are the source of information. This is a 
complementary approach that allows organizations to be understood as structures that direct rural 
development actions with an impact on the values, attitudes, knowledge, and behavior of people 
living in rural communities. When these quantitative and qualitative methods are combined, they 
provide the best overview of a project and allow for contextualizing and interpreting results. 
Therefore, qualitative methods are a means to complement and interpret the results obtained from 
quantitative data. The qualitative data were analyzed using the Atlas TI software (Annex 12: 
Hermeneutical Database). Code trees were designed (Annex 14) for the hermeneutics unit that 
served to classify appointments for interviews and participatory workshops.
Appreciative inquiry (AI) is the methodological approach chosen to evaluate organizations for three 
reasons. First, this approach is aimed at understanding organizations’ culture, capacity, strategy, and 
actions. Coghlan et al. (2003) describe Appreciative Inquiry (AI) as "a process that inquires, identifies, 
and develops the best of what is in the organization to create a better future." Second, AI-based 
conversations keep future desire as a point of reference (What could it be?), along with the sources 
and potential of organizations to achieve their dreams. AI is an invitation to discuss the future, 
allowing for reflection on critical factors, negative circumstances, bottlenecks, etc. Third, AI is a 
favorable approach for baseline studies because conversations about the future, resources, and 
potential, empower organizations.14 The qualitative component of the baseline is addressed with the 
following six questions, which are taken as non-segregated items from the general evaluation 
questions. 
1. How do organizations describe the social, economic, and political context in specific rural 
communities?
2. To what extent do organizations share a vision of the territory in the long term?
3. How do organizations contribute to rural development?
4. How do organizations collaborate and coordinate rural development actions?
5. What are the lessons learned from collective action initiatives in specific rural communities?
6. What expectations and recommendations do organizations have for the CDLO program?
 
14 Chazdon, Emery, Hansen, Higgind, & Sero, 2017, p. 6
24
The qualitative component was implemented through 100 interviews and 8 group sessions, with a 
sample group that covers the 3 regions included in the project, focusing on the subregions that have 
more municipalities in the project. This distribution aims at including the diversity covered by the 
project and also the subregions that weigh more in terms of the number of municipalities. 
25
6. THE CDLO POPULATION 
This section presents the characterization15 of households in the areas covered by CDLO activity. 
The universe of the population living in the rural areas of the 45 CDLO municipalities (Annex 03) is 
comprised of 920,266 people, of which 48.5% are women and 51.5% are men. According to PDET 
data for the CDLO region, the average household is comprised of 3.72 people. The ratio of women 
who report being head of household is 38% compared to 62% of male heads of household. The 
average age of the head of household is 45. 
The population pyramid for the inhabitants in the dispersed rural areas of the 45 municipalities of 
the Program is shown on the left panel of Figure 3. Here, 22.8% of the population is between 0 and 
15 years of age, where the population of boys and girls is similarly distributed. The demographic 
function shows a contractive base relative to the low birth rate, followed by a weak expanse in ages 
10 to 15, not enough for a vigorous turnover of the population, and a special contraction in the 
population between 15 to 20 years that is more severe in the population from 25 to 30 years of 
age16. 
Figure 3: Population pyramid and universe of households
Population Pyramid 
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data
Total (Universe) of Households by Municipality
Source: CDLO Survey Data 
On the panel to the right in Figure 3, the total number of households17 living in rural areas of the 
CDLO municipalities is shown18. This distribution has significant municipal differences. For example, 
 
15 Note: All the data presented below are estimated with the expansion factors to infer population from the sample.
16 A social research and demographics question would explain the demographic phenomenon and the impact of poverty, 
conflict and marginalization on this population.
17To see the accuracy of the household estimate according to the sample design, see Annex 05: CBS Sample Design
18 The colors have no meaning; they are simply a visual aid for reading the bars.
26
in San Andres de Tumaco there are 26,200 households or approximately 97,50019 people living in 
the rural area of the municipality; the municipality with the smallest rural population is Calamar, with 
900 households representing approximately 3,780 people. In terms of ethnic group distribution, 
35.8% of heads of households identify as afro-descendants, followed by mestizo 15.9%, indigenous 
10.1%, and Caucasian 5.3%. Five percent of heads of household report other ethnicities20, and 28% 
of households do not report. 
Figure 4: Ethnic Composition of Rural Households - CDLO
Source: CDLO Survey Data 
The head of household reports that their households consume 60% national television, followed by 
national radio 23%, and community radio 6%21. Also, 69% of heads of household reported owning a 
mobile phone, while only 11.2% reported having a data plan on their mobile phone, and only 1.4% 
reported access to internet at home22. 
Regarding the change of municipality and the residence time for rural households23, 52.6% of heads 
of household report that they have always lived in their municipality of residence. In turn, 41.4% of 
households report that they have changed their municipality for the following reasons: (i) better job 
opportunities (21.7%), (ii) education (5.3%), (iii) threat or risk to their life, their freedom or their 
physical integrity caused by violence (5%); (iv) other (9.2%). Although the most significant reason for 
moving is job opportunities, the third most important reason for moving is the conflict, with a 
sizeable 5%. 
Regarding the type of ownership and use of property, it is divided between property with a deed 
32.8%; private land with no deed 12.2%, rental 9.4%, inheritance 9.4%, collective property 8.6%, 
usufruct 7.7%, vacant lot 5.9%, and family allowance without legalization 4.5%. There was no 
response from 9.3% of heads of households, or do not identify with any of the options above. 
 
19 CBS calculations are based on sample design data based on DANE 2018 projections
20 The category of “do not know, no answer", includes the options of "none" and "do not know, no answer". The “other” 
category includes, Gypsy-Rom, Raizal, Palenquero, Other, in the survey options. 
21Source: CDLO Survey Data
22Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data 
23Source: CDLO Survey Data
27
Figure 5: Figure 3: Ownership and Use of the Property
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Regarding the activities in which people over the age of 10 occupy most of their time in households24, 
46.8% of people work, 4.6% are looking for work, 0.3% are studying, housekeeping 43.6%, medical 
leave 3.1%, other activities 2.3%. Two major observations at this point: the first is the high activity 
of the rural population, and the second is the concentration of women dedicated to housekeeping. 
The differences between gender roles in the population are highlighted below:
Table 3: Table 1: Occupancy Activities for Ages Over 10
Work Looking for 
work
Studying Housekeeping Medical 
Leave
Men 29.0% 2.2% 0.1% 3.1% 1.4%
Women 17.8% 2.4% 0.2% 40.5% 1.7%
Total 46.8% 4.6% 0.3% 43.6% 3.1%
PDET – CDLO Survey Data
For people over 10 who work, their job may be that of a worker or employee for a private company 
(3.7%), government employee or worker (3.4%), a housekeeper (3.2%), self-employed (54.1%), 
employer (2.0%), unpaid worker (3.0%), day worker or farmhand (25.6%). The categories of self￾employed and day worker or farmhand stand out. In terms of gender differences, housekeepers and 
employers are at 1.7% above men with a relatively low participation compared to women at 0.3%. 
There are more male freelance and agricultural workers. 
Table 4: Type of Work for Ages Over 10
Constru
ction 
Worker
Public 
Official
Housekee
per
Freelance 
Worker
Employer 
or Boss
Unpaid 
worker
Day 
worker 
or 
farmhand
Men 2.0% 1.7% 0.5% 30.4% 0.3% 1.0% 18.5%
Women 1.7% 2.7% 2.7% 25.8% 1.7% 2.0% 7.1%
Total 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 56.2% 2.0% 3.0% 25.6%
PDET – CDLO Survey Data
 
24Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data 
28
Regarding the main form of access from the homes of the surveyed households to City Hall in the 
municipal seat, the results show difficulties in accessibility. Forty-four percent of household access 
by unpaved roads in poor condition, 25% by sea, river or canals, 11% by trails or unpaved paths, 
11% by paved road, and 3% by bridle paths. 
Figure 6: Access from Home to City Hall
Source: CDLO Survey
29
7. EVALUATION QUESTIONS
The evaluation questions contained in CBS' Evaluation Matrix (Annex 02) deal with the core issues 
derived from the CDLO theory of change. Field data from secondary sources, surveys, interviews, 
and participatory workshops contain evidence with baseline information. This chapter describes 
each of the nine evaluation questions in detail.
Based on the response to the first question, CBS developed a description of the economic, social, 
institutional, and political context in the areas of intervention, together with a context analysis based 
on the current situation and its relationship with CDLO's theory of change. These aspects are 
analyzed through the perspective of critical assumptions, key to the programming exercises.
The second question refers to the current state of the provision of public and collective goods and 
services. Evidence shows that there are challenges in providing basic services (water, housing, 
education, and health) and rural infrastructure (tertiary roads and connectivity). These are core 
issues in the rural development program for these territories.
The third question relates to the physical inter-connectivity of households. The study researched 
the time, cost, and mode of transportation for households in the territories. Each household 
established times, means of transportation, and cost of travel to six points of reference (neighbor, 
school, health center, population center, police, city hall). This reflects the conditions of accessibility 
in the regions. Such conditions apply in several ways, including state officials traveling to these places, 
and for locals to transport themselves and their products; and the great challenges they face in terms 
of competition with illegal economies.
The fourth question introduces the current role played by organizations in providing public utilities 
and rural infrastructure. As permanent inhabitants and key stakeholders in the territory, community 
organizations have the opportunity to improve living conditions in coordination with the 
Government of Colombia.
The fifth question explores the relationship between citizens and authorities through multi-level 
dialogue. It identifies the most relevant community organizations and the connection with other 
similar associations, local and national authorities, the private sector, and international donors.
The sixth question asks about the level of influence of communities and civil society in rural 
development, through political decisions and regional plans.
The seventh The question describes the conditions of social capital based on trust, cooperation, 
effective rules, and the ability to relate.
The eighth question describes the economic environment in the target areas according to the area’s 
security conditions, household perceptions about the legitimacy and duties of public institutions, 
their view of illicit rural economies, and household financial conditions.
The ninth question explores the strategic question regarding CDLO’s contribution to the GOC's 
rural development policies, plans, and programs. Each section begins with the baseline question 
followed by the medium-term question; an answer to the question is then built based on the 
evidence of the data and following the association with the program's Theory of Change. 
30
7.1. Question 1: Context conditions that determine CDLO critical 
assumptions
Baseline Question: What are the contextual conditions that determine the critical assumptions 
formulated by the activity in CDLO's areas of intervention?
Medium Term Question: How has the economic, social, institutional, and political context in 
CDLO's areas of intervention affected the performance and critical assumptions formulated by the 
activity?
Based on CBS's documentary analysis25, there are four critical assumptions that directly affect the 
program's implementation and depend on a set of context conditions to operate. These conditions 
can have positive or negative effects in the program’s implementation, from mild to determining. 
These suppositions are: (i) weak government presence, (ii) communities affected by the conflict, (iii) 
the presence of illicit crops, and (iv) high levels of poverty. The CDLO implementation is subject to 
the availability of various conditions that may directly affect the program’s operation and success. 
Therefore, monitoring critical assumptions must be a permanent and collective exercise. CBS used 
the new Municipal Performance Measurement of the National Planning Department (DNP) as a 
proxy for government presence; it used data from the coroner’s office and the Ministry of Defense 
as a proxy to research the communities affected by the armed conflict, used data from SIMCI to 
research the presence of illicit crops in the territories, with an added value in estimating market 
volumes, and the DANE data to determine the conditions of multidimensional and financial poverty 
in target territories (Annex 23). 
The initial findings show that the critical assumptions are valid. In general, the CDLO municipalities 
are in the fifth category of the MDM index, showing their low levels of performance and resource 
attainment. This information is confirmed with the PDET reports on the absence of the government 
in these regions. CDLO zones contribute a major part of illicit crops in the country. In terms of 
poverty levels, the program could be entering the poorest areas of the country's poverty-stricken 
population with levels well above the national rural average. Their income conditions are low, with 
an average of $762,189 per household, and an average of 2.7 people per household belonging to the 
working-age population (PET).26, This reflects an approximate per capita income of $281,000, which 
contrasts with the transportation costs to the municipal capital that is approximately $31,000 (11% 
of their income).
7.1.1 Weak Government Presence in Rural Areas
Communities in these territories refer explicitly to the absence of the government and some have 
a clear connection between this phenomenon, illegal crops, and government absence. There is a 
weak perception of official and democratic institutions; of 190 references in the qualitative data sets,
138 were negative and 21 were positive. The main criticism is about the lack of coordination 
between government agencies (at local and national levels) and government electoral periods. 
Despite the historical perception, there is optimism in the territories from the Peace Agreement. 
 
25 USAID/CDLO (2017), Draft Activity Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Plan – AMELP, Tetra Tech. p. 89 & 
OLGOONIK TECHNICAL SERVICES LLC (2017), Performance baseline study for the Community Development and Licit 
Opportunities (CDLO) Activity. Bogota, Colombia. p. 19
26 According to the DANE, people older than the age of 10 in rural areas enter the working-age population. 
https://www.dane.gov.co/files/faqs/faq_ech.pdf
31
The last ten years of this region... total abandonment. Economies do not move forward, projects do not have 
enough support from the government or from the organizations that bring them; they start the execution 
and leave them halfway done. I think that the last ten years of this region is nothing but lag; there has been 
no corporate or economic, factor, people have had to resort to illegal or informal activities... And 
accompaniment by the government and social organizations here is minimal.
Community Organization of Taraza (Antioquia)
Figure 7: New Municipal Performance Measurement - Average CDLO Municipalities
Source: DNP 2017
According to the MDM, the municipalities are in category 5, low level. The category refers to the 
levels of the municipalities given their initial endowments. The MDM27 measures and compares 
municipalities in terms of their performance and attainment of resources based on the following 
eight dimensions: (1) mobilization of resources, (2) capacity to execute resources, (3) tax collection 
for development, (4) open government , (5) education, (6) health rates, (7) public utilities, and (8) 
security. 
The score range for CDLO municipalities is between 24.3 and 56.4 points with an average of 41, 
showing that levels are between low and medium. Belen de los Andaquies (56.4) has the best 
performance in the sample. Second in performance is Briceño (53.5), with positive experiences in 
tax collection. The lowest-ranked municipalities are Francisco Pizarro (24.3), Santa Barbara (24.3), 
located in the pacific coast sub-region of Nariño; and Miraflores (26.0), located in the Meta-Guaviare 
sub-region. In general, the measurement shows good performance in the execution capacity of funds, 
open government, health, and security. In the health dimension, the behavior of the municipalities is 
very positive, since the infant mortality rate of children under the age of one has decreased 
considerably, as well as the vaccination coverage and the number of affiliates registered in the 
contributory and subsidized regimes. In the security component, CDLO municipalities have an 
average score higher than the national average.
 
27 New Municipal Performance Measurement - DNP National Planning Department. New Measurement of Municipal 
Performance 2016. www.dnp.gov.co/programas/desarrollo-territorial/Estudios-Territoriales/Indicadores-y￾Mediciones/Paginas/desempeno-integral.aspx
32
7.1.2 Communities Affected by the Conflict and Violence
A successful implementation and sustainability of CDLO's efforts depends to a great extent on the 
ability of the Colombian Government to ensure security conditions and the rule of law in the 
territories. In terms of citizen security, specific threats include the presence of armed outlaw groups 
and organized crime, the damage they cause, and the effects they produce. According to the 
Coroner's records (Annex 23), homicides per 100 thousand inhabitants are critical in some of the 
CDLO municipalities. The highest homicide rates are in Tumaco with 75 per hundred thousand 
inhabitants, while the average in Colombia is 24. This contrasts with World Bank data, where El 
Salvador has the highest rate in the world at 83. 
Figure 8: Ten CDLO Municipalities with the Highest Homicide Rates
Source: National Institute of Forensic Medicine and Forensic Science (2017)
In terms of interpersonal and domestic violence (attacks with medical-legal leave over 15 days), 
national violence rates are at 234.42 per 100,000 people in 2017, while in CDLO they were at 75.13. 
The municipality with the highest rate of interpersonal and domestic violence is Puerto Asis with 
291.1, while the municipality with the lowest rates is Roberto Payan with 4.16. 
The total number of people displaced, expelled, and received in the municipalities reflects the 
intensity of the conflict. As of August 1st, 2018, these municipalities had 15.7% of displaced persons 
expelled from the country and 7.17% of the displaced persons reported in the Unified Victims 
Registry (RUV). The target municipalities have received more than half a million people (527,429) 
registered in the RUV and they have expelled more than twice that amount, approximately 1,113,066 
people. Tumaco, Tierralta, Montelibano, and Puerto Libertador are the most critical areas where 
the phenomenon of displacement occurs, while Briceño, Francisco Pizarro, Piamonte and Calamar 
are places where there are fewer records of displacements. The national municipal average is 7,244 
and that of CDLO municipalities is 12,864 people. This might explain the contraction in the young 
population of the population pyramid.
The conflict has caused damage to social capital, broken relationships, and weakened social 
networks. Positive social leaders have been threatened with violent action. In the northern and 
southern territories, violence has intensified in recent months. This violence is represented in 
selective threats and the killings of leaders. In the central region, security conditions have been more 
stable despite the presence of outlaw groups. The community perceptions are that, after the FARC 
left, a void was created and is being filled by illegal groups. These territories are commercial 
corridors and they play a key role in producing, processing, and exporting illegal substances.
33
7.1.3 Presence of Illicit Crops
The territories under the CDLO scope of work may be affected by coca production and pressure 
from illegal armed groups that oppose the GOC’s eradication programs. The total area of coca 
crops in Colombia for 2016 was 146,140 hectares, according to SIMCI. The 45 target municipalities 
add up to 101,958 hectares, 70% of the total national area. The region that contributes the greatest 
number of hectares is the South corridor between Putumayo and Nariño.
In terms of coca crops, CBS estimated the metric tons per hectare according to SIMCI conversion 
factors (Values 2016), and the average is between 2.9 and 5.6 metric tons of coca leaf per hectare, 
per year. The price of a metric ton is at USD$950; hence one hectare produces between USD$2,755 
and USD$5,320 annually. As a cost of opportunity, this is a significant amount given the average 
annual income of a household in the CDLO universe which is USD$3,12028.
The final value of the product increases exponentially. In the municipality with the largest crop area 
(Tumaco), the value of coca leaf is almost USD$123 million per year, while the mean in CDLO 
municipalities is USD$15 million annually. As another example, in a municipality with an approximate 
area of 1000 hectares of coca such as Algeria-Cauca, the value of production is almost USD$5 
million. These figures grow significantly when they approach the crystallization process. In Tumaco, 
this crop area may become approximately 338 tons of cocaine and the cost amounts to USD$340 
million, while for Lopez de Micay, its production value including the finished transformation process 
amounts to USD$14 million. This crop concentration is evident in the following graph where 10% 
of the largest coca growing municipalities hold almost 50% of the total money.
Table 5: Illicit Crops and the Value Chain
Source: SIMCI 2016
Communities recognize that in the past, local economies were heavily supported by illicit crops. 
They admit that the illegal groups took advantage of the territories’ vulnerability in social and 
biophysical terms and found the ideal conditions to enter and settle in the market. This economy 
has had effects on the behavior patterns of the inhabitants and effects on the region’s economy. 
Today, there is optimism and a positive motivation in the communities and organizations regarding 
the substitution policies of the Government of Colombia. According to the qualitative database, the 
 
28 Conversion rates according to the market rate = COP$3,000
34
inhabitants recognize that they are tired of bearing the risks of illegal economies (social, legal, 
economic, and institutional). In the southern region, communities acknowledge the presence of 
Mexican cartels. Although optimistic and committed, people are afraid that government absence and 
illegal opportunities will persist in the future.
Not even in the most remote areas, nor in the closest ones, because here, 15 years ago there was coca here, 
500 meters from the square, right here, everywhere, this was all coca, coca, and coca. Here, people 
replaced coffee, sugar cane, cocoa, rice, everything that was produced, they replaced it for coca. 
Now we are, well thank God, we do not have coca plants in Briceño.
Public Organization Mayor's Office of Briceño (Antioquia)
7.1.4 Social and Income Conditions
Rural households in CDLO areas have high levels in terms of lacking basic conditions. Poverty 
dimensions, including low income levels, show that the communities are among the poorest of the 
poor. Households living in CDLO territories show higher levels (45%) than the national rural average 
(36.6%). The northern region shows the higher deprivation levels with 50% of households in poverty 
conditions followed by the southern region with 47% and the central region has a better condition 
almost closer to national rural averages 38%. 
Table 6: CDLO Multidimensional Poverty Variables
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data
Looking into the variables that are part of the multidimensional poverty index, the educational 
attachment shows a high deprivation levels (0.87) according to the national average (0.43), indicating 
that the population has less than 9 years of schooling. Illiteracy levels are higher (11%) than national 
averages (3%) and school lag (40%) is above the national average (28%). The services to children 
bellow 5 years old are almost at the national levels and child labor is above (8%) the national average 
reported by DNP (3%). The long-term unemployment (14%) is above the national average (12%). 
However the formal employment (89%) is worse than the national average (73%) and means that 
people is working without a formal contract or contributing to pension. The variables on health 
35
insurances (15%) are close to the national average (10%) and confirm that population belongs to the 
SISBEN. The housing conditions are the most worrying since their gaps. The graph above show the 
households percentages for every variable that contributes to the multidimensional poverty index. 
In general, it is evident that most indicators are below the national rural average. These gaps revolve 
around the material conditions of homes and their access to various services such as health. 
The average rural income according to DANE (2016) is $786,000 per month per household. 
According to the GOC income calculation methodology29, this income is based on the types of 
income earners (i.e. employed, unemployed and inactive, independent, and unpaid workers). For 
CDLO areas and their regions, the main income earners are freelancers (43%), unpaid workers 
(25%), followed by employees (18%), and lastly unemployed and inactive people (12%) of household 
income. Income is mainly from their job and other sources of income or in-kind pay is almost non￾existent.
The distribution of household income shows families with an average monthly income of $762,189 
for rural households with an average of 2.7 people in the economically active population (PET). The 
lowest income households ($697,904) are located in the southern region (3.3 people on average in 
the PET), and the highest income reported ($915,413) is in the central region (2.7 people on 
average). In general, rural CDLO households are below the national average as reported by DANE, 
showing higher deprivation in terms of household income.
Table 7: Total Income of Rural Households
Average 
Household 
Income (COP)
Household Size 
(average 
number of 
people)
Working Age 
Population (PET)
Per Capita 
Income
CDLO $762,189 3.2 2.7 $281,250
North $817,089 3.4 3.0 $243,181
Center $915,413 2.7 2.4 $344,140
South $697,904 3.3 2.7 $212,775
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data 
 
29 DNP, DANE (2010) Mission for Connecting Employment, Poverty, and Inequality Series
36
Monetary poverty30 in rural CDLO households is especially high compared to national averages and 
even national rural averages in Colombia, according to DANE 2017. 
Figure 9: Monetary Poverty in Rural Homes - CDLO
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data
Forty-six percent of households are in conditions of moderate poverty, that is, the per capita income 
in the household is below $165,052 pesos in 2017 figures. This is 10 percentage points above the 
national rural average. The gap is even greater in extreme poverty, where 32% of households are in 
extreme poverty and the difference with the national average is 17 percentage points. This means 
that rural CDLO households are severely affected by conditions of moderate poverty, but especially 
under conditions of extreme poverty.
Regarding food security, CDLO households show critical values, as seen from the questions in the 
PDET questionnaire taken according to the ELCSA Latin American and Caribbean Scale of Food 
Security.31 57% of households are at the level of severe or moderate food insecurity. These values 
vary greatly by region. The central region has the lowest levels of food insecurity; 41% of households 
have severe or moderate food insecurity, the moderate being lower. Conversely, the northern 
region shows the highest levels of food insecurity with 62% of households in critical condition. 
 
30 The calculation follows the monetary poverty methodology for Colombia established by the Mission for 
Connecting Employment, Poverty, and Inequality Series DANE (2010).
31 http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3065s.pdf
37
Figure 10: Food safety
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data
7.2. Question 2: Goods and Services for Public and Collective Use
Baseline Question: What is the current status of the main goods and services for public and 
collective use?
Medium Term Question: To what extent has CDLO contributed to the improvement of the 
main goods and services for public and collective use?
In nearly all the subregions of CDLO's operations, there is evidence of the non-existence or very 
low scope of goods and services, which are determining factors for the population’s quality of life. 
In rural households there is a major deficit in access to basic services such as a sewer systems, 
health, education, and recreation. In addition to this, most tertiary roads are in poor condition and 
they have not been rehabilitated or maintained in the last two years32. In terms of public services, 
the greatest demands revolve around conserving, optimizing, and expanding rural community 
aqueducts, and building, repairing, and providing health posts, educational centers, and 
sports/recreational facilities.
Access to public services: According to data from the PDET - CDLO survey, there is little access to 
public services: 65% to electric power, 27% to aqueduct services, 11,% to sewer systems, and 10% 
to garbage collection. This data shows that all levels are low, even for electric power. According 
DANE's quality of life survey in 2017, electric power coverage in populated centers and dispersed 
rural areas of the country was 98.3%33. Practically half of those who have access to these services in 
CDLO areas, rate them as bad or very bad. The lack of basic public services has structural effects 
on the inhabitants’ development in terms of their daily life and their entrepreneurial possibilities. 
 
32 The subject of roads is discussed in detail in the next chapter on household physical connectivity.
33 DANE (March 21, 2018). National Quality of Life Survey, year 2017; Technical Bulletin, Graph 5: Percentage of 
households with access to electricity.
38
...I do not remember what that project was called, well, I was going to do all those things having to do 
with the internet, where there is not even power... How do you implement a project on the internet, 
in places with no power, with no signal? Because there must be a signal to have an antenna; there is 
no signal out there, there is no electrical power there... Why do you need "Computadores para Educar" 
(Computers to Educate) where there is no electrical power? So how do you charge the computer if 
there is no power? Yes, so, things like that; things that make you think... my God... but whatever.
Policarpa Community Organization (Nariño)
Access to drinking water: The issue of access to drinking water is especially critical. Only 25% of 
households have access to an improved water source, via aqueduct services (public or community). 
Seventy-three percent is supplied by water sources that do not meet the minimum quality 
requirements, which, according to the definition provided by the IPM variable "with no improved 
water", are those from well water with no pumps, rain water, river water, springs, tanker trucks, 
water carriers, or other similar sources. The gap in comparison with the rest of the country's rural 
areas is evident, considering that the rural national average is at 60% coverage.34
Figure 11: Access to Public Services
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data
In infrastructure, that is, in these municipalities, for supposedly being so far from the inner cities or 
departments, there is no drinking water. In fact, we have to open a hole in the field and drink the 
water from there, without it being treated or anything like that; this causes a lot of diarrhea in children, 
so if we are talking about the urban area here, well, it’s obvious that the water is not drinkable. It is 
taken from the river, where they also dump sewage and then it gets to their houses with a very 
empirical treatment that really, let’s say, does not solve anything.
Puerto Rico (Meta) Farmer's Organization
Access to sewer systems and garbage collection: The sewer system service suffers from a similar 
situation, which is reflected in the fact that only 10% of households have a toilet connected to a 
sewer system. The remaining 90% connect the toilet to a septic tank, low water, or use it with no 
connections, or only have a latrine, or simply do not have any sanitation service. In terms of garbage 
disposal, the following graph shows how 8% of households have access to a garbage collection 
 
34 DNP (2016), IPM (national rural average).
39
service, while the rest burn it, dump it into the yard or river, and very few bury it or use an informal 
collection service. 
Figure 12: Garbage and Sanitary Waste Treatment (PDET)
Source: PDET-CDLO Survey
Education and Health Services: Comparing data from PDET and CBS surveys, with IPM 2016 
indicators for the set of rural areas, allows for establishing that the education and health services 
situation in CDLO's areas of intervention is much more critical than in the rest of the country’s 
rural areas. The educational component, the values for illiteracy and low educational achievement 
variables are higher, by more than 50%, in comparison to those recorded for all rural areas. Also,
regarding health, the access barriers to this service are greater, and the assurance level is lower, 
when a need arises.
So, for a teacher to go to teach at location X, it is punishment; the teacher is sent as punishment. So 
they send a teacher to also teach first, second, third, fourth and fifth grades. With laughable salaries, 
so it is not attractive.
So, there is a high level of attrition for a teacher who teaches for one month, leaves, and does not 
come back. So, as long as conditions do not improve for these teachers so that it is appealing there… 
And when the student sees that the teacher did not come back, what do they do? And apart from 
that, these crops are very bad, we had to go deeper in, to scrape coca because what else can we do.
Public Entity - Office of the Governor of Meta
Perception of public and collective goods and services versus the poverty situation: There is a 
relationship between household perception of service coverage, and the objective measures on IPM 
measurement. They are key conclusions in two ways: (i) the poverty indices are in fact high, (ii) the 
40
population's perceptions of their dignified living conditions match their awareness of the need to 
improve in these matters. This is key in establishing the local rural program.
Figure 13: Gap Analysis - Service Coverage for CDLO Rural Households
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data 
7.3. Question 3: Physical Connectivity in Rural Households
Baseline Question: What is the state of connectivity in regional CDLO communities?
Medium Term Question: To what extent are the regional CDLO communities better connected 
thanks to the support of the Activity?
This study understands physical connectivity as the degree of proximity or isolation via an access 
road for households in rural CDLO areas. Physical connectivity is key not only for the interaction 
between these households, but also for their access to public and private goods and services of a 
social and productive nature. CBS determined the methods and means used by households to move 
from one place to another, the time needed, and the costs incurred for such trips. Likewise, CBS 
investigated rural household perceptions about the quality and maintenance of access roads to their 
homes and established a municipal connectivity index.
In rural areas, household access from their homes to the respective municipal seat is done using 
roads (79%), which, according to the perception of the households themselves, are mostly unpaved 
and in poor condition, or are trails or bridle paths. Twenty-five percent of cases have access by sea 
or river; this fact mainly applies to the subregions of South-Central Caqueta and the Pacific Coast 
of Nariño and Cauca. 
41
Figure 14: Access Roads to Households
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Figure 15: Access Road Quality to Households
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data
Physical Connectivity Conditions: Six reference points were used: (1) the nearest neighbor, (2) the 
school, (3) the nearest clinic, (4) the police station, (5) the population center, and (6) the municipal 
seat where town hall is located. In turn, eight alternative means of transportation were proposed: 
by foot, horse, boat, bicycle, motorcycle, jeep, bus, and truck. As shown in the table, households 
prefer to walk (34%) as a means of transportation, especially for short distances, followed by the 
motorcycle (26%), used for medium and long distances, then boat and jeep (17%), and households 
42
use more horses than buses (3% vs. 2%). This shows the importance of river transportation in CDLO 
zones, as well as the importance of motorcycle transportation.
Table 8: Means of Transportation to each Destination (%)
Source: CDLO Survey
The average travel time to municipal capitals is approximately one hour, which shows the level of 
physical isolation for these rural inhabitants. The average travel time, one way, from a home to a 
neighbor is 6 minutes, which is 300-500 meters away; going to school takes 12 minutes on average, 
and to the downtown area, where the City Hall is located, takes a little over an hour (66 minutes). 
In the central region, where there is greater rural housing dispersion, these travel times tend to 
become higher, by more than 30%, with respect to the southwestern and northwestern regions. 
For example, a trip to the City Hall area takes on average 82 minutes in the central region, 64 
minutes in the southern region, and 61 minutes in the northern region.
Table 9: Transportation Time
CDLO 
Territories Center North South
Neighbor 5.6 7.2 4.9 6.1
School 11.7 14.2 9.8 15.3
Clinic 38.2 53.3 32.8 40.5
Police 53.1 64.8 49.8 52.2
Population 
Center 47.4 68.8 41.4 45.8
Mayor's Office 65.7 81.2 61.4 63.7
Source: CDLO Survey
In terms of cost, the highest price of transportation in which households must incur are those 
relating to their trips to the places where the mayor's office and the police operate. The average 
cost of travel to the urban area where the mayor's office is located is $15,589 per trip; therefore, 
the round-trip amount to a mayor's office, in addition to other expenses relating the type of 
transportation, is the amount that a day worker would make, at approximately $31,178. This means 
that traveling to town is around 11% of the income for each member of the PET. In addition to the 
amount for transportation, we would have to add the opportunity cost for that trip (1/2 daily wage), 
in terms of that day off work, so it would be an approximate value of $31,178 + $15,589 = $46,767. 
The number of times the family travels to a populated center from dispersed rural areas may have 
a weekly, biweekly, or monthly frequency. These high levels of travel time and costs also affect the 
43
absence of local government officials in dispersed rural environments and make it difficult to exert 
territorial government control there.
Table 10: Transportation Costs
CDLO 
Territory Center North South
Neighbor 968 853 1,190 376
School 1,276 1,553 1,330 836
Clinic 8,188 11,665 7,619 6,618
Police 11,524 14,897 11,191 9,311
Population 
Center 10,682 16,271 9,613 8,645
Mayor's Office 15,589 19,904 15,199 12,640
Source: CDLO Survey
Road Quality and Maintenance: Most tertiary roads, through which households can access their 
villages, neighboring villages, or the urban area of their municipality, are in poor condition and have 
not been rehabilitated or maintained in the last two years. In this regard, the greatest demand 
revolves around adapting and maintaining tertiary roads, unpaved roads, and rural roads, which 
constitute the main obstacle for access to markets and social services.
In general, the perception rate on the condition of tertiary roads is 0.45, that is, they have not fixed 
the road in the last year. Likewise, the information derived from the interviews carried out with 
some local stakeholders shows that in some subregions, river and maritime transportation is very 
important. Regarding the importance of connectivity by river, the municipalities of Solano (Caqueta) 
and Tierralta (Cordoba) stand out. For geographical and environmental reasons, this mode of 
transportation should be favored; in turn, the marine environment is of obvious significance on the 
Pacific Coast of Nariño and Cauca. Regarding tertiary road maintenance, the situation varies 
depending on the specific area or region being considered. In fact, according to 46% of households, 
the road that connects their home with the municipal seat or neighboring villages was not renovated 
or maintained in the last year. 
44
Figure 16: General Connectivity Index
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Connectivity Index: This index establishes a ranking of municipalities in terms of their physical 
connectivity, showing those with the best connection with the highest scores, and the most 
disconnected with the lowest scores. This index is calculated based on the average travel time for 
families to the 6 destinations mentioned above, considering that the shorter the travel time, the 
better the connectivity. The following figure shows that the municipalities with the longest average 
travel times are Santa Barbara (Nariño), Solano and Milan (Caqueta), and La Macarena (Meta). The 
municipalities with better connectivity are those at the Colombia-Ecuador border region in the 
department of Putumayo, in particular Puerto Caicedo, San Miguel, Guamuez Valley, Puerto 
Leguizamo, Puerto Asis, and Orito. In turn, the Connectivity Index of Figure 16 indicates that Santa 
Barbara is the most dispersed municipality of the CDLO universe and here, a person spends an 
average of seven and a half hours traveling.
45
The following table shows the means, times, and cost of travel in that municipality. This data shows 
that travel in this municipality is mainly by boat and walking. Travel time to a neighbor's home in 
Santa Barbara is an average of seven minutes and 126 minutes to the mayor’s office. The travel costs 
vary from 10 to 55 thousand pesos per trip to the mayor's office.
Table 11: Most Dispersed Municipality: Santa Barbara
Source: CDLO Survey Data
7.4. Question 4: Community participation in providing goods and services for 
public and collective use
Baseline Question: How do community organizations participate in providing goods and services 
for public and collective use?
Medium Term Question: How has CDLO promoted and achieved community organization 
participation in providing goods and services for public and collective use?
The nature and degree of community participation in building, maintaining, and operating goods and 
services for public or collective use varies, depending on the area and service in question. Although 
there are areas where this type of involvement is very limited, in certain specific areas in certain 
territories (villages or groups of neighboring villages), there has also been community self￾management, especially in obtaining water for household use and fixing roads or paths that connect 
homes with each other and with neighboring towns. In the case of water for household use, this is 
usually via small, simple, local aqueducts with low population coverage and operated by Community 
Action Boards (JAC). In most cases there are service deficiencies due to the low capacity available, 
especially at financial and administrative levels, or attributable to environmental circumstances that 
limit water availability.
Rural Community Agenda: In CDLO areas, the agenda privileges public utilities, followed by 
infrastructure and education, as shown in Figure 17. Regarding road maintenance, communities 
maintain the roads when there are specific traffic difficulties due to landslides or serious road damage 
that prevents or hinders connections with population centers or neighboring municipal capitals. 
46
Figure 17: Issues that the Community Sought to Resolve - CDLO Universe
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Typology of community organizations engaged in goods and services management: Community 
engagement in providing public and collective goods and services occurs mainly via the following 
organizational types: 
Community, to promote community development, ensure the interests and rights of its 
members, and engage with government authorities to resolve the various issues in their 
communities.
Social, usually created for a specific purpose that relating to the needs of their members or of 
certain population sectors, or to promote interests, social causes, or collective services in 
various fields such as sports, culture, environment, ecology, and social, ethnic, and gender 
affairs, among others. 
Productive, to promote competitive development for its members’ productive activities, 
providing various instruments and mechanisms such as collective goods and services for 
supplies and equipment, product commercialization, savings and credit, and access to basic 
means of production (land, foraging, water resources).
The organizations that best represent the communities and have a greater degree of direct or 
indirect engagement in managing public goods and services, are community organizations, with the
most important type being Community Action Boards, in that they have the highest engagement 
rate (58% of households). There are also many other forms of social and group engagement, although 
with a lower affiliation level such as non-formalized volunteer groups that engage in social and 
community work, parent associations, displaced population organizations, groups formed specifically 
around sports, cultural, and environmental activities, producer associations, women's organizations, 
and others35.
 
35 The medium-term survey must perform a methodological adjustment in the questionnaire and include the 
options of indigenous councils and community councils as forms of social organization.
47
Figure 18: Forms of Community 
Associations
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Figure 19: Barriers to Social 
Engagement
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Basic JAC Agenda: In addition to having more members and broader convening capacity, JACs are 
the organizations that are mostly tasked with managing basic needs at the community level. The 
importance of the aqueduct service in community organizations is corroborated by the fact that, 
approximately one third of households claim that the water they use to prepare food is obtained 
mainly from communal or rural aqueducts.
Engagement with social organizations in providing public utilities: This type of engagement with 
organizations in providing or operating public or collective services is still very uncommon. Although 
some social organizations have had outstanding experiences, these are still specific cases that revolve 
around small services for their members, but that still have not achieved the collective or community 
dimension. Regarding the activities by farmer organizations to provide services to their members, 
there are very specific cases on record of joint commercial operations with the support of small 
collection centers, or negotiations and association chains with product buyers. 
Household involvement in solutions to community problems: Approximately 37% of households 
have stated that during the year before the interview, one of their members participated in some 
type of community issue. In other words, while it cannot be said that community engagement is 
present in providing public or collective services as such, there is community engagement associated 
to these services. In that regard, the issues they sought to resolve, in order of frequency, were about 
water and electric power utilities, roads and infrastructure, education, and health. 
Community engagement in providing public utilities: Notwithstanding the public, domestic, and local 
organizations acknowledging certain community engagement processes in providing public utilities, 
especially in association with government programs under Post-conflict (PIC, PDET), in the interview 
and workshop processes, the organizations did not mention or acknowledge their engagement in 
providing public utilities associated to these post-conflict programs and agencies, possibly due to 
how recent the processes are. Out of the 53 representatives of Community-based Organizations 
48
that were contacted during the field work stage, only three mentioned providing public utilities as 
an important issue in their relationships with institutions: one was a farming organization that 
mentioned the lack of commitment by the administrations, and then two community organizations 
that described positive experiences: Asocomunal de Briceño, with the support of USAID, and a JAC 
from Belen de los Andaquies, through solidarity agreements. 
Community engagement in overseeing public utilities: Regarding inspection and engagement in 
accountability, community and social organization engagement is very precarious. However, public 
organizations are proving to be more optimistic, and assure that these spaces exist and are used by 
the communities; they acknowledge certain weakness in citizen engagement in social oversight, 
which they attribute to the aftermath of war (fear) and with cultural matters (the community is not 
used to or is not encouraged by this oversight). The rate of accountability, which measures the 
degree in which households perceive whether or not the local mayor is informing the community 
on how public resources are being spent, shows that there is a very negative perception on this 
matter in the communities. While on average, 77% of the households express a negative opinion, 
23% state that this accountability does exist. 
...Why? Because the communities said in the assemblies that they wanted to manage projects, 
comprehensive technical assistance by way of Community Action Boards, so we said ok, we will wait for 
you; when we started to ask for the paperwork, they had no stationery, they were not organized, they 
could not hire, well... difficulties, so that held back the project.
Public GOC Organization in Briceño (Antioquia)
Also, some community, leaders stated their disagreement with the lack of commitment by the 
municipal administrations in fulfilling agreements established by law, for repairing or maintaining 
roads and similar activities.
Quality of community engagement: When conducting an analysis of Community Action Board
engagement (understood as a synthesis of the organization membership, the frequency of attendance 
to the meetings, and active participation in decision making) it is possible that, while high in sub￾regions such as the Pacific Coast of Nariño and Cauca, and relatively high in the Colombia-Ecuador 
border in Putumayo and the Andean mountain range and foothills of Nariño and Cauca, it is very 
low in the other sub-regions, especially Southern Cordoba. On average, the quality of organization 
engagement is still very low, given that most of their members do not attend the meetings and the 
majority of those who do, are limited to being present or giving an opinion, but only a minority 
actually participates in decision making. 
Representativeness of community organizations: The rate establishes the measure in which the
households feel represented by their community leaders and groups (Annex No. 4); it also indicates 
that there is a relatively high level of representation in said instances, considering that on average, 
around two thirds of households acknowledge this and grant them legitimacy. The sub-region where 
the households attribute a greater degree of representativeness to their community organizations 
is South-Central Caqueta. 
49
7.5. Question 5: Community engagement through multilevel dialog 
mechanisms between organizations and social networks
Baseline Question: Is there community engagement and how does it take place through multilevel 
dialog mechanisms between organizations and social networks?
Medium Term Question: How has CDLO fostered community engagement through multilevel 
dialog mechanisms between organizations and social networks?
The presence of multiple and diverse organizational processes underpinned and incentivized by 
public and cooperation organizations increases the possibilities for dialog and network structuring 
between communities and organizations in CDLO municipalities on priority matters regarding 
development. Beyond a few significant experiences, relationships between organized communities 
and organizations is currently facing three challenges: 1) sporadic and passive household engagement 
in organizations, 2) the negative perception around public institutions, and 3) the lack of connection 
and coordination between the organizations.
In CDLO municipalities, there are abundant organizational initiatives in rural communities, as seen 
in the eight participative workshops (Annex 21). The work done in these community-based 
initiatives creates the development agenda that establishes priorities in these territories. 
Rural households confirm the presence of organizational forms of community outreach, although 
their engagement ends up being sporadic and passive. While eight of every ten households attend 
some type of organization or work group with a community approach, formal or informal, only five 
out of ten actively engage. The willingness to engage in public affairs36 is 0.65 with no regional 
differences. From the different options present in CDLO municipalities, the prevailing engagement 
is in Community Action Boards. The rate of engagement in these councils is 0.42; that is, four out 
of every ten actively engage in JACs. The highest community engagement in these Community Action 
Boards may come from the legitimacy granted by institutions, given that the councils are created 
there. Historically, the JACs have been a channel where rural communities maintain their 
relationships with external stakeholders, fulfilling the role of engaging in community initiatives with 
municipal government projects, and building relationships of trust and collaboration at the vertical 
level. The above has made JACs into the most representative form of community organization in 
rural areas. In fact, data shows that there is a positive correlation between the rate of engagement 
in JACs37 and the rate of organization representation38, at 0.67. JAC legitimacy and stability in rural 
areas may have been a determining factor for them to survive the armed conflict, given that illegal 
armed groups subverted and used them, but did not eliminate them. However, the rate of 
engagement in JACs is not the same for all regions; while the Central and Northern parts of the 
country show high values (0.58), it is lower in the South. 
Because something else I would say is that these outlaw groups came to the community and touched the 
existing organizations, basically the JACs So, the leader at the time, would either work with them or get 
killed... So that is one of the advantages we have now: many associations are being created, especially by 
many women and youth. Impressive!
Public Government of Colombia Organization in Tierralta (Cordoba)
 
36 Definition: I think I can contribute, and it is important for me to engage in municipality issues to help change 
things in my community (Annex 4: Rate Interpretation)
37 Definition: A member of your household attends the JAC very frequently and participates (Annex 4)
38 Definition: They feel represented by community leaders and groups (Annex 4)
50
By way of these forms of organization and engagement levels, the municipalities promote 
collaboration between organizations (horizontally), and of the latter with public and private entities 
(vertically). When referring to these interconnections, the perceptions by the organizations are 
more positive than negative regarding their relationships with educational organizations and other 
Community-based Organizations. Meanwhile, when describing their relationships with other 
stakeholders, the negative perceptions are higher in number, as shown in the following figure. There 
are different types of relationships that the community-based organizations currently have with 
other stakeholders present in the territories.
Figure 20: Perceptions of Community Based Organizations
Source: Hermeneutic Database - CDLO
Relationships Between Community-based Organizations: In territories that are part of this baseline, 
cases were identified where the organizations have managed to build networks and align their visions 
of their territories (almost always, social organizations). However, most of the organizations, mainly 
farmers, are only now in the process of identifying experiences similar to theirs and starting dialog
with other organizations to articulate and work jointly. In some municipalities, several efforts have 
been made with positive results in terms of the involvement by local initiatives and identifying shared 
visions between the various community processes in municipalities. By way of rallies, community 
radio, and audiovisual productions, horizontal communication channels have been created between 
the various types of organizations, that show processes unknown to the communities and aid toward 
rebuilding social fabric.
So everyone comes in, they organize us, tell us to come to a meeting, we have coffee, and they leave. And 
they come back the next year, with the government, to ask us what to do again!
La Hormiga Farmers' Organization (Putumayo)
Relationship with public entities: The negative perception of citizen engagement has improved since 
the arrival of post-conflict agencies and programs to the territories. However, the lack of 
accountability is a limiting factor between communities and organizations. In communities where 
CDLO has focused its efforts, the rate of accountability39 is 0.23, a low and condensed value. The 
community believes that the Mayor of their respective municipality does not inform them on how 
resources are spent, especially in the Lower Cauca Antioqueño, the Pacific Coast of Nariño and 
 
39 Definition: The mayor informs the community on what and how its resources have been spent (Annex 4)
51
Cauca, and Southern Bolivar, with a rate of accountability that varies between 0.05 and 0.18 points. 
Another circumstance limiting dialog is the lack of interconnection and coordination between the 
programs and levels of government; this is a factor that remains and, according to organization 
leaders, wears on the communities and discourages engagement. An example of this is that only 
2.85% of the households participate in citizen oversight activities to monitor public administration.
Relationship with private companies: The negative community perception of the relationship with 
private companies originates from the absence of companies in leveraging rural development 
processes in the territories by buying and selling products in the region, with exceptions such as 
Selva Nevada and Bioguaviare. In some specific cases, organization representatives highlight the lack 
of social commitment and market monopolization by private companies, referring mainly to the large 
companies. It is worth noting that households do not have such a high sense of belonging to farmer 
associations (8.6% of households). This may mean two things: (1) the families do not indeed belong 
to the farmers' associations and their base is not that large, and (2) farmers' associations are mainly 
located in the municipal seat.
Relationship with international cooperation: According to the parties surveyed, the work by 
international cooperation organizations has contributed positively to the communities' engagement 
and ability to associate. However, the lack of interconnection with the processes that have already 
been undertaken in the territories is a factor that has hindered the organizations' efforts from having 
the expected outcome. Conversely, the opinions of the public entities, both local and domestic, tend 
to be positive regarding coordination with Community Based Organizations, although opportunities 
for improvement have been identified for this relationship, mainly around post-conflict activities and 
organizational strengthening.
7.6. Question 6: Civil Society Engages in Land Development Decisions
Baseline Question: How does civil society influence land development planning and management?
Medium Term Question: Has CDLO made it possible for civil society to increase its influence 
over land development planning and management decisions?
Community engagement in CDLO municipalities has had an influence over public actions. However, 
community-based organizations believe their influence is still marginal, thus making it a goal yet to 
be achieved. Among the many factors affecting the incidence of the organizations, there is a 
remarkably low education level in the rural community, a low representation of the organizations, 
and gaps in organizational capabilities. The rate of incidence by organizations40 is 0.41. That is, out 
of every 10 households, 4 believe that the organizations they belong to have had influence over the 
decisions made by the authorities of their municipality in the last two years. Furthermore, a similar 
number of households states that their engagement in organizations has helped the community to 
receive benefits. The subregions with a below-average perception of incidence are: the Pacific coast 
of Nariño and Cauca (0.37) and Macarena-Guaviare (0.38). Southern Cordoba stands out with 0.47.
Households perceive that municipal authorities very seldom take citizens' opinions into account 
when decisions are being made, with a citizen service rate41 of 0.23. At the regional level, two types 
of behavior are observed: one where most households believe they are never taken into account, 
such as in the sub-regions of the Pacific Coast of Nariño and Cauca and Southern Cordoba. The 
second group believes that they are at least sometimes taken into account by the authorities, and
this group is from areas such as South-Central Caqueta and others.
 
40 Definition: Organizations that households belong to have an impact on the authorities' decisions (Annex 4)
41 Definition: Frequency with which public authorities take them into account for decision making (Annex 4)
52
This rate is especially low, considering that the willingness to engage42 is more than double. At a 
disaggregated level, 14.2% of households engage in municipal development plan formulation and 
follow-up, 7.9% in preparing participative municipal budgets, investments or expenses, and 7.4% in 
land zoning plans. South-Central Caqueta stands out as the region with the highest public 
engagement rate, at 0.42 points. Meanwhile, on the Colombian-Ecuadorian border, this rate is half 
of that. 
...because there are associations, cooperatives, a whole bunch of things, so they need help to get organized. 
In other words, they exist, but they are incipient. What do I think of them? I think they are incipient, but 
people still want to get organized. There is a dairy farmers’ association that is about 20 years old, but they 
have nothing, they are just there. They created associations, but there is nothing. 
Government of Colombia organization in Briceño
Among the factors that may currently limit the influence of community engagement in land 
development planning and management are: 
Low education level: In many cases, organization leaders do not have the basic knowledge of citizen 
participation to perform their activities due to the low education level in the rural communities of 
CDLO municipalities (as shown by the multidimensional poverty indicators).
Organization origin: One of the problems highlighted by the participants in regard to associative 
processes, mainly the farmers, consists of the fact that many organizations are created to collect 
resources or gain access to programs, but they are associations that lack the social ties to sustain 
them. For the Guaviare Rubber Farmers' Association, sustainability depends on generating trust 
among the members, having a long-term, shared vision, and not being influenced by local political 
interests. 
Representativeness of community organizations: Only 9.9% of households state that having belonged 
to an association or organization has helped them to gain representation as a group. Conversely, 
27.1% of households state that belonging to an association or organization has helped them to engage 
in community decision making. With more representation, it is possible to consider that these 
organizations or groups could have higher engagement in rural development decisions in their 
communities. 
Gaps in organization capability: Organizations show multiple financial and administrative weaknesses, 
which limit their results. Said weaknesses are bolstered by the precarious living conditions in which 
the leaders find themselves, the financial difficulties of trade and access to markets that the farmer 
organizations have, and the absence of planning habits and organization between the partners. These 
weaknesses not only hinder the ability of many of the organizations to have an effective impact on 
the public policies of their municipalities and departments, but also limit the expectations they have 
thereof. Most of the organizations contacted in the territories are focusing their efforts and 
expectations on managing resources to solve the specific and immediate needs of the communities 
involved, but not on the influence in planning and managing rural development of the municipalities.
Credibility in public institutions: The community's negative opinion of public institutions, which is 
generally related to issues such as clientelism, corruption, and abandonment by the government, 
translates into the low incidence on participatory initiatives for land development planning and 
 
42 Definition: You participate in the POT, PDM, Participative Budgets (Annex 4)
53
management. The dynamics created by the post-conflict and the arrival of domestic agencies and 
programs (PIDARET, PNIS, PDET) has improved community perception of government presence,
the effectiveness of participatory forums, and the possibilities they have to impact public policies. 
Connecting processes: The stakeholders surveyed assure that there are currently too many on￾going processes in the territories, which are not well connected. The lack of interconnection and 
coordination between the various agencies and organizations present in the territories is wearing 
on the communities which, at the end of the day, may strengthen the negative perception on the 
effectiveness of participatory forums.
Credibility in participatory forums: Although the local-level organizations (mayor's and governor's 
offices) state that they are providing and ensuring participatory forums for communities, their 
credibility in these forums is scarce, as a consequence of the lack of connections between processes, 
previous negative experiences, and adverse opinions on the institutions.
Illegal armed groups: In some cases, the presence of illegal armed groups (Northern Region, mainly) 
and the fear of social divide, which has left the communities with a long history of violence, have 
limited citizens' ability to participate in public policy.
Capabilities of local public organizations: Some stakeholders believe the scarce resources available 
to the mayor's offices to address the needs of their communities have in helped to reduce 
participatory forums into dialogue, but they do not have any pertinence on policy, program, or 
project implementation to the benefit of the communities. The lack of local public capacity has made 
the communities lose credibility in their ability to engage in land planning. 
Because there was a lot of improvisation, right? This improvisation was replicated by the associations. What 
does this mean? It means that everyone was told, join in and you'll get something from me. And people, not 
even understanding what associating meant, just joined in an didn't know what for, just to get something we 
now call a failure, because since then, over 2,000 associations have been created. \
La Hormiga Farmers' Organization (Putumayo)
7.7. Question 7: Effects on Social Capital
Baseline Question: What are the conditions of social capital in CDLO territories? 
Medium Term Question: What effects on social capital has CDLO had on community groups 
and farmers’ organizations? 
Currently, CDLO territories are rebuilding social fabric, associations are flourishing, and a shared 
vision is being recovered. Social capital is in juxtaposition between temporary realities: a painful past 
that merges with the present, clad with pain, violence and illegal economies, and the possibility of 
imagining a future where it is possible to reassemble the social structure, starting with legal 
economies, collaboration among neighbors, and association. 
...once again, we take a step toward coming together, and then come the associations, other species for us 
to try and survive on... and there has been a major change and now the community is trying to find where 
that vision this region once had ended up... 
Social organization in Belen de los Andaquies (Caqueta)
54
Three factors that limit building social capital were determined in the territories: relationships 
between people based on distrust and intolerance, relationships between people and organizational 
processes that face various difficulties such as teamwork, and relationships between people and the 
public institutions, based on distrust and acting outside the norm. Conversely, in people's 
relationships with the land, their strong roots and resilience are positive factors toward building 
social capital. 
Relationships between people. At CDLO municipalities, interpersonal trust is a value that is still not 
shared by everyone. The rate of trust in individuals43 is 0.34. That is, the head of a household trusts 
three out of every ten people in the community. This is reflected subsequently in the low levels of 
cooperation. The lowest trust rates are seen on the Colombian-Ecuadorian border in Putumayo 
(0.30) and the sub-region of Macarena-Guaviare (0.31). 
In addition to the levels of trust, relationships between the people in these communities are 
characterized by a tolerance for the moderate differences between community groups; the tolerance 
rate is 0.61, dropping to 0.56 in the Lower Cauca Antioqueño. Between 40% and 45% of rural 
households would not be willing to establish emotional and/or labor relations with people of sexual 
orientations different from theirs, or people who are demobilized or have different political views, 
or those who speak a different language. Tolerance levels in other groups vary between 20% and 
30%, characterized by ethnicity, religion, health condition, and income levels. Conversely, the highest 
tolerance in the households is toward women. 
With values similar to the tolerance rate44 at 0.61, households perceive a social inclusion rate45 of 
0.62. That means that 6 out of every 10 households believe that there are no differences in their 
community and they have no issues with having others as neighbors. In this case the differences 
between regions are notorious: 14 percent at the Colombian-Ecuadorian border in Putumayo with 
respect to the Lower Cauca Antioqueño region and the Pacific Coast of Nariño and Cauca. 
7.7.1 Relationships between people and community-based organizations
As stated, in 5 out of every 10 households, community engagement is sporadic and passive. 
Households associate community engagement with individual benefits, both social (40.2% of 
households) as well as economic (31.7%), which include: meeting other people (21.2%), having 
someone to turn to in case of an emergency (10.6%), having fun and doing things they like (12.9%), 
creating ties or having friends that have helped them in the past or can help in the future with their 
businesses or family needs (88.3%). Finally, for 15.3% of the rural households, there has been no 
positive result in participating in organizations or associations and it has not created collective or 
individual benefits.
Therefore, community engagement is a mechanism that still does not clearly translate into collective 
action46, with a rate of 0.62. That is, 6 of every 10 households believe that there is a tradition in 
their town to engage in community projects and people are willing to undertake joint actions. Also, 
 
43 Definition: How much do you trust the people in the community (Annex 4)
44 Def. Tolerance: Would you be willing to work or establish a relationship with someone different from you? 
(Annex 4)
45 Def. Social inclusion: There are no differences in their community and there are no issues with having others 
as neighbors (Annex 4).
46 Def. Collective Action: There is a tradition to work on community projects, you believe the people are 
willing to perform joint action, and in the past 12 months, a member of your family engaged (Annex No 4)
55
these are households where in the past 12 months, a member of their family engaged in some type 
of collective action. 
The people surveyed believe that, among the various problems that may affect their organizational 
activities and possibilities to undertake collective action, the most common is the difficulty to work 
as a team (47.1% of households). Next in importance is that "people do not like to engage" (37.8%), 
and that "people are very distrustful" (37.3%). 
Despite the difficulties and weaknesses seen in operating and sustaining organizations, and likewise 
in creating dialogue and influence on the communities to which they belong, the associative 
processes that are underway in the territories are expected to aid in making the changes the 
communities want regarding social ties and collective action.
I am talking exactly about what we have seen in the process led by SENA in these territories, to see that 
people believe that it is worthwhile getting organized... that they themselves see or have assumed the role 
of being part of an organization that may do something different in their territories and that they can 
contribute themselves with their knowledge and skills.
Education institution in El Tambo (Cauca)
In that regard, CDLO territories show note-worthy examples that reflect positive changes that 
organizations and associations can create in families and communities. In cases such as ASDECEBRI 
in Briceño, an association that benefits over 300 coffee-growing families in their municipality, and 
that has relied on the support of international cooperation and local public entities; Activa G10 in 
Tierralta, through which 400 cocoa- and honey-farming families are provided with technical 
assistance, local collection centers, and the guaranteed sale of their products; or Fundacion Tierra 
Viva in Belen de los Andaquies, who have been able to align the vision of all of their stakeholders 
(civil society, environmental associations, schools, local authorities, community radio stations) and 
to create participatory ties through common-collective projects, creating a sense of belonging, 
collective identity, and promoting community participation by way of a common goal. 
Relationships between the people and institutions. When exploring trust in institutions, the result 
is not very different, with a rate47 of 0.33 points. The only regions with trust levels higher than this 
average are South-Central Caqueta and Southern Cordoba. The results are so low, that people rely 
more on mass media than they do on any institution. 
 
47 Def. Trust in Institutions: To what extent do you trust public institutions (Annex 4)
56
Figure 21: Trust in Institutions
Source: CDLO Survey
Trust in institutions was found to increase as the community's perception of their rights being 
assured increases. While the rate of ensuring rights48 is low (0.26), its behavior has a very high 
variance in the lower values, which would show a variety of nuances in this perception. The bad 
perception about the government is not only observed in the rate of trust in institutions, but also 
in the fact that only 20% of households report problems to the authorities, thus reflecting the 
context of scarce government presence. 
This type of relationship with institutions, based on little trust and a low perception of its 
effectiveness, also coincides with the low property tax payment rate49 (0.18) and a low perception 
by households of honesty in managing public resources by officials50 (0.31). Moreover, very few 
households stated that a public official had asked them for a bribe in the past 12 months (bribe rate51
of 0.02). The perception of honesty in managing resources was found to be tied to the levels of trust 
in institutions, and that said perception improves when the citizens participate in accountability 
forums where their opinions are heard and taken into account for decision making by the authorities.
With regard to regional differences, it is worth noting that the Pacific Coast of Nariño and Cauca 
shows an unfavorable result in most indicators, especially those regarding government relationships. 
When there is no trust in institutions, the people do not engage and will not resort to the 
organizations either. On the contrary, it would seem as though the idea of seeking community 
alternatives has gained strength, as there is much collective action taking place in this region.
 
48 Def. Rights Assurance: You believe the government ensures your rights as a citizen, Annex 4
49 Def. Property Tax Payment: In the past two years, you or someone in your family have paid property tax, 
Annex 4
50 Def. Honesty in Managing Public Resources: Honesty in managing public matters by the municipal officials, 
Annex 4
51 Def. Bribe: A public official asked you for a bribe in the last 12 months, Annex 4
57
7.7.2 Relationships between the people and the territory
Fifty-three% of heads of household report having always lived in this municipality and 91% have 
planned on continuing to live in the same place. In the rural sector, this display of deep roots is a 
positive factor, given the ongoing migratory movements and displacements, resulting from the times 
of violence and the lack of economic opportunities, which have characterized these regions for a 
long time. In addition to their relationship with their roots52, social capital in these communities can 
be described as part of their resilience process, of overcoming difficulties and traumatic situations 
within their context, with a rate of resilience53 of 0.71. Most households perceive that, in a difficult 
or adverse situation, they keep calm, trust their ability to find solutions, and understand others' 
points of view.
In summary, social capital is an asset that is used to undertake collective action to provide better 
conditions for the communities. Collective action is a result where many variables are involved. In 
that regard, collective action relates positively with social roots, the various dimensions of 
community engagement, trust in institutions, tolerance, and resilience. 
7.8 Question 8: Economic landscape in CDLO regions
Baseline Question: What is the current economic landscape for the regions where CDLO will 
intervene? 
Medium Term Question: What has changed in the economic landscape for the regions where 
CDLO will intervene? 
Establishing the economic landscape in the sub-regions where CDLO will operate, mainly addresses 
the acknowledgment and analysis of the key elements or conditions currently existing in said regions, 
which are of crucial importance for developing legal rural economic activities and discouraging the 
illegal.
Based on CBS indicator and index analysis, it was determined that the priority elements to be 
considered in analyzing the economic environment -as they are determinant for developing and 
consolidating licit productive activities in CDLO municipalities- are: (a) household perceptions on 
social coexistence and citizen security; (b) their opinions on the legitimacy and operations of public 
institutions; (c) its acceptance of the existence of illicit rural economies and the culture of legality; 
(d) the economic conditions of households; and lastly, (e) the implications derived from connectivity 
restrictions in the low competitiveness of licit economic activities.
7.8.1 Community perception of the situation of cohabitation and citizen 
security
The perception by heads of household regarding the conditions of security and cohabitation vary 
between municipalities, territories, and types of conduct and threats. However, there is a prevailing 
tendency to state that there are no serious security issues in their communities. In fact, 71% of 
households believe that security in their villages is good, or very good, while 29% of them describe 
it as either bad, or very bad. This trend is a confirmation of the perception whether the current 
security situation is better or not, than that from two years ago, to which 73% of households believes 
 
52 Def. Level of Attachment to their Roots: Percentage of life living in this municipality, Annex 4
53 Def. Resilience: Most households perceive that, in a difficult or adverse situation, they keep calm, trust their 
ability to find solutions, and understand others' points of view, Annex 4
58
it is, while 27% say it is not. In regard to the degree of importance given to security, as a negative 
issue, there is a more divided opinion: while a little over a half of the households (53%) say no, the 
other half (47%) say yes, and they claim the most serious issues have to do with ordinary crime 
(burglary, muggings), displacements, homicides, extortion, landmines and the presence of illegal 
armed groups. The figure below illustrates Insecurity Perception in households. The rate of common 
crime54, the rate of displacement55, extortion56, of illegal armed groups57, homicide58, and landmines59
which corresponds to the perception of heads of households regarding the presence of these issues 
in their environment. This means that almost 22.7% of households perceive that there are illegal 
armed groups (GAML), 21.7% robberies and muggings, 13.5% displacement, 11.4% homicide, and 
8.1% extortion. 
Figure 22: Perception of insecurity
Source: CDLO Survey Data 
Finally, the results from the households' perception of citizen security are somewhat surprising, 
given their mostly positive nature. The field security reports may be biased in regard to the 
information capture (Annex 22). In that regard, CBS was able to prove that in places where security 
issues were the strongest, people would answer positively in regard to the situation, which obligates 
a thorough and detailed analysis of that type of information.
7.8.2 Public institution Legitimacy and Operation
Based on the household perceptions regarding public institutions' activity, there is evidently a lack 
of confidence in government offices. The households' perception rate for public resource 
management is 0.32. The level of trust in justice60 by the public institutions is rated at 0.28, which 
shows that households do not believe the institutions are acting equitably. In turn, household trust 
 
54 Def. Common Crime: Citizen security is a serious problem in my community, Annex 4 
55 Def. Displacement: Displacement is a serious problem in my community, Ibid.
56 Def. Extortion: Extortion is a serious problem in my community, Ibid.
57 Def. Presence of Illegal Armed Groups: In the last five years, these groups have been present in the area, 
Ibid.
58 Def. Homicide: Homicide is a serious problem in this community, Ibid.
59 Def. Anti-personnel landmines: Landmines are a serious problem in this community, Ibid.
60 Def. Trust in the Justice system: To what extent do you trust the justice system, Annex 4
59
in institutions is also low, as shown in the figure below; the distribution is between 0 and 0.4, with 
an average of 0.32.
Moreover, even though most households expressed a relatively favorable opinion on issues such as 
police and military presence in their territories and, in general, when people are asked about their 
degree of trust in the police in terms of government actions on security and quality of the service, 
around 70% said they do not trust, or trust very little; this is reflected in the low rate of Police 
service use, which is 0.06. To make matters worse, in regard to justice, 80% of households stated 
that they do not trust or trust very little in the institution.
The lack of trust in the public institutions tasked with security and justice is, to a certain extent, also 
corroborated when people state that, when they have a serious cohabitation issue with their 
neighbors or a member of the community, they either resolve it by speaking directly to their 
counterpart in the conflict (56%), or resort to organizations such as the Community Action Board
(27%), but only 5% take it to the municipal justice agencies, and 2% to the Police. This situation is 
also seen in the fact that the use of formal mechanisms to reestablish61 order is 0.3462; in addition, 
when people are asked about the willingness to denounce criminal or illegal actions, even though 
the affirmative answer varies between 60% and 75%, it is worth noting that said degree of willingness 
to denounce decreases dramatically when the situation refers to the presence of illicit crops (43%), 
extortion (57%), and bribery (59%).
Figure 23: Who do you consult with to solve a serious cohabitation problem?
Source: CDLO Interview Data
Lastly, it is worth mentioning that the perception on the improvement of citizen security and human 
rights protection, although very different from one household to another, it is still rated very low. 
Similarly, there are different opinions on the presence of GAML63; notwithstanding the fact that 
around 32% of the households state that it has been non-existent in their surroundings in the last 
 
61 Def. Formal Mechanisms for Reestablishing Order: When you have a problem, you resort to the public 
authorities, Annex 4
62 A research question might compare this variable with the incentives to engage.
63 Def. Presence of Illegal Armed Groups: In the last five years, these groups have been present in the area, 
Ibid. 
60
five years, the remainder express very different opinions stating that these groups are still present, 
or that they were present for some time but they no longer are; all of this reveals certain disparity 
in the perceptions of this issue. In regard to security provided by non-government stakeholders, the 
generalized opinion is that they do not have a high incidence, but the fact that the rate of opinion 
that this situation exists is 0.09, is still relevant.
7.8.3 Acceptance of the existence of illicit rural economies and the culture of 
legality
Household opinions regarding the existence of illicit crops and illegal mining at the local level is still 
very ambivalent, and highly disparate between municipalities. However, in general terms there is a 
predominant trend to deny or downplay the importance of the presence of these economic activities 
in their territories. In fact, while every other CDLO intervention zone has revealed a strong 
presence of illicit crops64, an average of 59% of households say there are no illicit crops in their 
territories. It is remarkable to see that there is such a high percentage in the municipalities that host 
70% of the coca plantations in the country. This suggests a certain tendency to deny or downplay 
the existence of these illicit crops65. 
In regard to the perception of the illegality of coca, considering that it should not be grown because 
it is illegal, or it negatively affects communities, the rate is 0.40. An indicative fact is that one third 
of households does not acknowledge the illegal and negative nature of coca. The situation is 
worsened in the southwestern region, where the rate is 0.44. This situation is contradictory 
between the abundant existence of illegal crops and the low perception of illegality of said activity, 
which is very notorious in the municipalities of the sub-regions of the Pacific Coast of Nariño and 
Cauca, and the foothills of the Andes in these two departments. Along the same lines, the case of 
Taraza (Antioquia) is noteworthy, where the existence of illegal mining is very high but the people's 
perception regarding the illegality of this activity, is very low. In contrast with the position of denial 
or disregard of the existence of these illegal economies in their regions, as stated by one third of 
households in the three regions, the other two thirds have stated that they agree on the illegality 
and inconvenience of coca, claiming that it should not be grown because it is illegal (79%), it 
negatively affects communities (77%) and, it is something very bad for the social context (74%).
 
64 Def. Existence of Illicit Crops: There are illicit crops in your village or town, Ibid.
65 An interesting question revolves around the analysis based on land tenure. 
61
Figure 24: Culture of Illegality
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Conversely, while 92.6% of households reject issues such as carrying weapons, making easy money, 
and paying bribes, the number drops to 82.8% when it comes to expressing disagreement with illegal 
mining and illicit crops.66 In that regard, the high approval percentage for illicit crops stands out, 
which is in the order of 21.6% by heads of households. 
7.8.4 Household Economic Conditions
In general terms, as can be seen in Figure 25: Perception of the municipality’s economic 
situation, households have a perception that varies between negative and with certain skepticism 
in regard to the economic situation of their municipality. About 15% believe the economic situation 
of their municipality is good. 
Conversely, although the households subject to analysis reside in scattered areas, there is no 
evidence that the majority receive income from their farming production activities. In fact, 74% of 
households did not make any income from their own business or farming project during the past 
year; only 12% of the households have reported receiving income from agriculture, silviculture or 
fish farming of their own; and 3.8% generate their income from their own trade activities. There are 
two possible explanations for this phenomenon: the first is that, given the poverty levels explained 
above, productive projects are in fact not very productive. The second is that perhaps households 
have a low estimate of their productive projects and do not appreciate them as such. 
 
66 CBS Survey (2018), Question 904.
62
Figure 25: Perception of the municipality’s economic situation
Source: PDET – CDLO Survey Data 
The low existence of farming production activities owned by the households is confirmed by the 
land-ownership situation, given that only a small portion of the sample have reported owning the 
land they are occupying or working on, or the land where their homes are located. Furthermore, 
land-ownership is precarious, in the sense that 29% of the land has an owner with a title or deed; 
the rest are diverse forms of possession, the majority of which are in different stages of property 
rights (possession without a deed, inheritance without legalization, beneficial interest, sharecropping 
or lease). The precariousness of land possession is confirmed by the low property tax payment rate 
for the last two years, which on average is only 0.18; this rate is somewhat higher in the central 
region (0.28) and in the Lower Cauca Antioqueño sub-region (0.26).
Although 85% of households reported having at least one person who worked or did some kind of 
work during the week prior to the CBS survey, household income is very low. Monthly average 
income for all households is $762,189; but, considering that the average home is made up of 2.7 
people in PET, said income is about $281,250, which is equal to one third of the minimum monthly 
wage established by Colombian law. 
Another important indicator of the low household economic capacity is the low level of access to 
formal credit in the financial system. The rate of household indebtedness is only 0.33 and, in high 
proportion (two thirds), households claim they have no debt or loans; however, the rate of credit 
applications is 0.23 and 77% of households state they have not recently filed for a loan. 
This situation seems to not be due to the fact that households do not require loans, but rather that 
they lack skills and have major constraints to access to financing. Thus, for the majority of the few 
households that have requested a loan in the last 12 months, it was granted (the average rate of 
Access to Credit67 is 0.69); that is, apparently the few who have access to bank loans are the only 
ones who have the capacity required by the formal financial system. In fact, for the other third part 
of the households that were not granted the requested loans, the main reason was the insufficient 
documentation enclosed with the request, their negative credit ratings, the purpose of the requested 
loans, the lack of sufficient income or the request was simply never answered by the banks.
 
67 Def. Access to Credit: One loan was requested during the past 12 months, Annex 4 
63
7.8.5 Implications of connectivity restrictions on the low level of 
competitiveness of legal economic activities
The situation of isolation of the rural households implies logistical limitations, a low offering and high 
costs, both for the mobilization of people and the hauling of consumables and products inherent to 
their production activities. Said high costs have implications on the low living conditions and the high 
poverty levels of the dwellers in these rural areas, as well as the very low standards of 
competitiveness in their economic activities. 
Moreover, the conditions of physical isolation in these zones provide the right environment to 
decide to develop illegal economic activities, as they favor their inconspicuousness and make it 
difficult for police to control them. Access and retreat by the police into a given rural area is 
estimated at an average time of 1 hour and 46 minutes, at a cost of $23,048. This problem also 
affects the supply of social services, such as education and health. The high costs to be covered by 
farmers and retailers, but as well by government agencies to effectively provide their services, are a 
key factor for illicit production conditions. The absence of road infrastructure and connectivity not 
only hinders government presence and isolates communities, but in addition to the lack of access to 
markets, it is the ideal landscape for the presence of illegal armed groups and illegal activities. 
Economies such as coca are profitable under these conditions of isolation, and they are the only 
ones capable of paying the high costs of transportation of consumables, products and people, caused 
by the lack of physical connectivity in these areas.
Can you imagine, for example, I have some farmers that walk here for five hours to take one load of plantain 
or corn, and it costs them $70 thousand pesos on a mule. The load costs them another $70 thousand and 
when they go back to the town market, they sell it for $140,000; so, what are they making? The work, the 
weariness of the animals... While that other peasant worked for five hours, grew coca, put two kilos in his 
backpack and came back walking. Those two kilos are worth $5 million pesos. $5 million versus $140 
thousand pesos, there's no competition.
Nothing you can do. This is a fight between a tiger and a tied-up donkey.
Public organization in the San de Fragua (Caqueta) Mayor's Office
7.9 Question 9: Contribution expected from CDLO to the Colombian 
Government's rural development strategy in the intervention territories
Baseline Question: What is CDLO's contribution to the rural development strategy formulated 
and under implementation by the Government of Colombia in the regions where CDLO will 
operate?
Medium Term Question: What is CDLO's contribution to the rural development strategy 
formulated and under implementation by the Government of Colombia in the regions where CDLO 
has intervened?
The geographical areas of CDLO are located in the region of coverage of the rural development 
strategy titled "Development Program with a Territorial Approach" (PDET, from the Spanish 
acronym), designed and executed during the 2014-2018 term. Within a period of 10 years, this 
strategy is seeking comprehensive transformation of the rural conditions of 16 sub-regions in the 
country, comprised of 170 municipalities which have been most affected by the armed conflict, 
poverty, illegal economies and institutional weakness (Annex 03). There are many similarities and 
complementarity between the focuses of PDET and CDLO. Both programs are framed within the 
most recent concept of rural development, which in addition, has been progressively gaining 
64
importance in Colombia, conceiving the process with land focus and a comprehensive, 
multidimensional and systemic approach that considers all of the endogenous and exogenous factors 
of rural territories68. 
CDLO is a rural development activity that corresponds to a basic USAID strategy that seeks to 
assess the execution of comprehensive programs in rural development in a variety or regions in 
Colombia. The purpose of CDLO69 is to strengthen the capabilities of the rural communities that 
have been affected by conflict, in order for them to be trustworthy and effective partners from the 
government and the private sector for the definition and implementation of comprehensive social 
and economic rural development activities (with emphasis on the reestablishment of social capital 
and the strengthening of community development) for the promotion of legal opportunities in the 
regions prioritized by the Government of Colombia for integral rural development. To that, CDLO 
has proposed four specific objectives: 1) strengthening community organizations and social capital; 
2) providing goods and services of public and collective use; 3) fostering a positive economic 
environment; and 4) strengthening multilevel dialog mechanisms between the communities and the 
public and private institutions, and cooperation. In that regard, the purpose and design of CDLO 
adjusts both conceptually and methodologically, not only to the current views of rural development, 
but also to the most recent formulations of the public policy on rural development, in the medium 
and long term, made by the Government of Colombia70. 
PDET is a planning and management instrument designed by the Government of Colombia to 
implement the priority sectoral plans and programs set forth in point 1.3 of the "Final Agreement 
for Ending the Conflict and Building Stable and Long-Lasting Peace", entered into with FARC, which 
suggests de design and execution of National Plans for Comprehensive Rural Reform (PNRRI, from 
the Spanish acronym) which, in essence, include three major components: infrastructure (roads, 
irrigation, power and connectivity), social development (rural health, rural education, housing and 
potable water), and economic and agricultural development (incentives for a solidary and 
cooperative economy, technical assistance, subsidies for income generation and credit, marketing, 
rural labor formalization and social protection, associativity, and the system for progressive 
assurance of the right to nutrition)71. The program, which is underpinned by a participative strategy, 
has been structured under the following four components: social development, productive 
development, social structuring of rural property, and institutional land development.72
As can be observed, there is a high degree of conceptual, strategic, and operational alignment 
between the CDLO design and the formulation of PDET and PNRRI. This concordance is expressed 
especially in that the CDLO activity is conceived as support and complementarity to the efforts of 
the national government and the local governments to 73: i) reestablish the social capital weakened 
by decades of conflict and isolation, by generating confidence and promoting citizen participation in 
local affairs; ii) allow communities to proactively and positively plan their socio-economic 
 
68 IICA (2003), El enfoque territorial del desarrollo rural. Sepúlveda S., Rodríguez A., Echeverry R. y Portilla M. San José, 
Costa Rica; 180 p. ISBN 92-9039-580 X.
69Section C, Annex 2 of USAID Assistance Contract No. 514-H-17-00002: Statement of the Work for CDLO Activity 
(2017).
70 DNP (2015), The Colombian Countryside: Un Camino Hacia El Bienestar y La Paz; Misión Para La Transformación del 
Campo Colombiano. www.dnp.gov.co/programas/agricultura/paginas/mision-para-la-transformación-del-campo￾colombiano.aspx
71Territory Renewal Agency, ART (2017), Programa de Desarrollo con Enfoque Territorial, PDET. 
www.renovacionterritorio.gov.co/especiales/especial_PDET
72 Penagos, A.; Barrera, C.; Umaña, M.; Bustamante, J. (2016). Lineamientos Operativos para los Programas de Desarrollo 
con Enfoque Territorial, Serie Documentos de Trabajo N° 207, RIMISP, Santiago de Chile.
73 Annex 2, Ibid, Section C.2 Purpose.
65
development journey, working effectively with public and private sector entities, especially in the 
areas affected by the high presence of illicit crops, iii) allow the communities affected by conflict to 
take an active role in the implementation of response and design activities, supervision and 
monitoring of local and short-term development activities associated with peace building, illegal crop 
substitution and alternative development, and iv) establish links between the local communities and 
their local and national governments through social and economic activities, including efforts to 
reduce coca production and discouraging other illicit activities.
66
8. RESULTS FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS: RATES,
CORRELATIONS MATRIX
The following chapter describes the general results of the rates created by CBS, which correspond 
to the CDLO results framework. Through the data exploration methodology, a more detailed look 
can be given to the rates in reviewing for consistency and relevance. Subsequently, their 
interrelationship with the other rates will be reviewed in order to see the situation in a more holistic 
manner. 
8.1 Rates Analysis
The following are the descriptive statistics of the quantitative variables of the program's results 
framework. As can be observed, all of the rates are normalized between 0 and 1 (see formulas in 
Annex 4). The rates may be positive, where more is better; or negative, where more is worse. The 
negative variables are those relative to a perception of crime, displacement, extortion, illegal groups, 
homicide, landmines, the existence of illicit crops, and bribe.
Table 12: Rate Results
67
8.2 CBS Rate Correlation Matrices
The correlation matrices or correlograms of the rates developed by CBS follow multivariate analysis 
techniques that allow you to explore the data. CBS recurs to these techniques in order to find 
patterns by using statistical and graphical analysis. The correlation matrices identify high and low 
correlations between variables (rates), and allow offering early intuitions of relations between them, 
according to the research hypotheses and questions. According to the methodology, the 
correlations matrix is built by following Spearman's correlation coefficient. If the correlation 
coefficient between rate X and rate Y takes the value of -1, it means the correlation is negative, 
therefore when one increases, the other decreases proportionally; when it takes the value 0, that 
means there is no correlation between the two rates (regardless how one behaves, the other will 
be independent), and when it takes the value of 1, it means the correlation is positive between them. 
While one grows, the other does the same, proportionally. CBS develops the correlograms analysis 
based on the rates built from the databases in the survey and uses two criteria (algorithms) for 
grouping rates, which provide two different types of analyses. The first correlogram shows a clear 
partition of the space between the rates with positive correlations (blue) and those with negative 
correlations (red). The color intensity corresponds to whether the correlation is high or low, where 
high is a more intense color. 
Figure 26: Correlogram of CDLO Variables
Source: CDLO Survey Data
68
The Angular Order or Eigenvectors74 grouping algorithm places the rates of crime, extortion, 
presence of landmines, homicide, illegal armed groups, displacement, illegal mining and illicit crops 
in the top left margin, as a group with high positive correlations. That is, wherever there is a presence 
of illicit crops, there is also a high perception of the presence of illegal armed groups, homicide and 
crime. Subsequently, the top central margin contains a second group of negative relationships
between the variables of illegality and conflict against the variables of social inclusion and territorial 
governance. Crime, extortion, mines, homicide, illegal armed groups, displacement, illegal mining 
and illicit crops have a negative correlation with social inclusion, trust in the justice system, upholding 
of rights, government actions on security, trust in the institutions, culture of legality, management 
of public resources, presence of the police, and military forces. 
An analysis example with two rates: where there is a higher perception of illicit crops there are low 
levels of social inclusion, trust in the public institutions, low presence of the police, etc. There is a 
third group of interesting variables (lower right quadrant) which is the positive relationship existing 
between the variables of territorial governance and those of social capital. Higher levels of trust 
between individuals, resilience and tolerance imply higher levels of law enforcement and consistent 
behavior in regard to the norms, collective action and participation in organizations suggest more 
rates on the levels of strong roots, accountability, willingness to participate in public affairs, 
perception of the guarantee of rights, trust in the institutions and justice. 
A second grouping algorithm, First Principal Components,
75 places the rates as a function of the 
most dissimilar to the most similar, in a continuum that is useful for graphical analysis. It is worth 
mentioning that the group of territorial governance variables (trust in institutions, government
actions on security, trust in the justice system, perception of the use of public resources) is on the 
opposite end of the culture of illegality, transportation costs, perception of illicit crops, presence of 
illegal armed groups, and displacements, among others.
It is important to highlight the following specific relations: 
(a) The culture of illegality (that is, that illicit crops, illegal mining, and illegal carrying of weapons is 
well seen) is strongly accentuated in those households where the lack of regulatory consistency is 
perceived (where the people believe the communities behave against the law), low tolerance levels 
of groups from different towns or communities, low willingness to participate in public affairs, and a 
lack of credibility in the institutions.
(b) The role played by the transportation cost rate, which negatively and severely affects any effective 
action of territorial governance, and therefore, the variables of inclusion and social capital. The cost 
of transportation suggests an absence of the presence of the police in the territories, higher levels 
of intolerance, low levels of trust in the institutions, and tax payments. That is, isolation is a decisive 
factor in the CDLO relation.
(c) The perception of the presence of illicit crops is observed in places where there are low rates 
of property tax payment, accountability, presence of the military forces and the police, low 
 
74 AOE, angular order of the eigenvectors. Package corrplot in R (Annex 29: Analysis Codes in R) Taiyun Wei 
and Viliam Simko (2017). R package "corrplot": Visualization of a Correlation Matrix (Version 0.84). Available 
from https://github.com/taiyun/corrplot
75 FPC, First Principal Component. Package corrplot in R (Annex 29: Analysis Codes in R). Taiyun Wei and 
Viliam Simko (2017). R package "corrplot": Visualization of a Correlation Matrix (Version 0.84). Available from 
https://github.com/taiyun/corrplot
69
participation in Community Action Boards, and it is positively correlated with the high rates of 
perception of illegal mining, the presence of illegal armed groups, and conflict variables.
(d) The variables and existence of illegal armed groups are tied to the profits generated by illicit 
crops, illegal mining, and extortion, and in turn they reveal the effects of violence in terms of 
homicide, displacements, crime, and landmines.
(e) The low levels of social inclusion are highly and negatively correlated with the variables of 
violence, the culture of illegality and citizen security. This variable seems to be highly sensitive and a 
determining factor in the CDLO process.
Conversely, (f) the rates of collective action are functional in both directions in terms of the 
provision of public goods, public participation and participation in organizations, but also seem to be 
functional (to a lesser extent) in terms of criminal actions.
Figure 27: Correlogram of CDLO Variables
Source: CDLO Survey Data
(g) Police presence variables are highly correlated to the presence of military forces and, in turn, to 
the presence of official representatives and formal justice, and the perception of government actions 
on security. 
70
Lastly, (h) there is a virtuous cycle seen between the variables of social capital (trust in individuals, 
collective action, consistency with the standards, and law enforcement), which provides a positive 
correlation with the variables of territorial governance (presence of the police, formal and 
alternative justice, official representatives, willingness to participate in public affairs) and social 
inclusion. 
71
9. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Given the strong territorial focus of the CDLO strategy, a multivariate analysis method was 
developed to allow for grouping object sets (variables) such that the groups (municipalities) of the 
same group (clusters) are more similar than objects that are in other groups. The advantage of this 
technique is derived from its intuitive and descriptive properties. Cluster analysis, also known as 
data segmentation, seeks to organize data under natural hierarchical orders. 
The suggested hypothesis is to what extent the objects (rates) show geographical differences, or 
even deeper, what elements show regional grouping, and which present similar behaviors through 
the municipal geographical units (Annex 03). The notion of cluster analysis is to group members 
with short distances between them into the same cluster, placing dense areas in the space for data, 
intervals, or specific distributions. 
CBS uses two criteria for cluster analysis: the first is thematic and is supported by the set of rates 
organized by CDLO objective (Annex 02). Objective no. 1 for example: social capital and community 
organizations contain variables of legality, collective action, etc. The second criterion is geographic 
and corresponds to the set of 45 municipalities under the program. As stated by the methodology, 
permutations will be done until reaching a number of three clusters. These three allow for better 
intuition by the analyst, insofar as it allows to form three spaces; best, neutral and worst. This enables 
intuitive location between the two opposing sets of data and one in the center which shares 
characteristics of both (Annex 26: Outputs in R from Cluster Analysis). 
9.1 Objective 1: Community Organizations and Social Capital.
The set of rates taken was from resilience, trust in individuals, tolerance, compliance with the law, 
culture of legality, consistency with the standards, participation in Community Action Boards, 
collective action and organization representativeness. The main municipalities representing group 1 
are, in order, Barbacoas, Magui, Santa Barbara, Lopez de Micay, and Puerto Leguizamo (Annex 26). 
This group is characterized by having low rates in Community Action Board participation, tolerance, 
low culture of legality, low levels of compliance with the laws and they feel underrepresented by the 
leaders. 
72
Figure 28: Regional Analysis - Social Capital
Source: CDLO Survey Data
Conversely, there are multiple municipalities in group 2, the most significant ones being El Retorno, 
Puerto Rico, Belen de los Andaquies, Valdivia and Argelia. This group is distinguished by low 
resilience rates, as well as the representation of organizations over the community's interests, low 
levels of trust between individuals and an incipient culture of legality.
Lastly, there are municipalities in group 3, where the most significant are Puerto Libertador, Briceño, 
Tumaco, La Macarena and Tierralta. A common factor for these municipalities is the high 
participation rates in Community Action Boards, organization representation, high collective action 
rates, trust in individuals, good behavior regarding rules and upholding the law. 
9.2 Objective 2: Goods and Services for Public and Collective Use
The set of rates taken for this cluster were those of the supply of public goods, tertiary road 
maintenance, accountability and citizen services. The main municipalities for group 1 in order are 
Santa Barbara, Barbacoas, Magui, Guapi, and Lopez de Micay, and they are characterized for having 
a very low perception of tertiary road maintenance, as well as accountability and citizen services, 
and the supply of public goods. The second group is led by Caceres, San Miguel, Tumaco, Tierralta 
and Montelibano. The third group is led by La Montañita, Briceño, Belen de los Andaquies, Orito 
and Miraflores. This group is characterized for a high perception of accountability, tertiary road 
maintenance, high levels of citizen services and supply of public goods.
73
Figure 29: Regional Analysis - Provision of Public Goods
Source: CDLO Survey Data
9.3Objective 3: Economic Growth: Regional Conditions. 
The set of rates considered for this cluster were crime, displacement, extortion, the presence of 
illegal armed groups, and other non-government forces, homicide, the presence of landmines, police 
presence, military forces, the community's perception on government actions regarding security, 
the presence of formal justice, alternative justice, the presence of official representatives, the use of 
formal mechanisms for the reestablishment of peace in serious situations and the use of police. The 
main municipalities leading group 1 are Barbacoas, Magui, Policarpa, Caceres, Argelia. This group is 
known for having a high perception of illegal mining, a high perception of insecurity and the presence 
of illegal armed groups, a high perception of crimes such as homicide, displacement, and a high 
perception of the presence of illicit crops. Group 2 is led by Montelibano, Santa Barbara, Puerto 
Libertador, El Retorno and Francisco Pizarro, where there is a low perception of police presence, 
high insecurity and presence of illegal armed groups, high degrees of extortion, homicide, 
displacement and illicit crops, and a low presence of formal justice, official representatives, and 
alternative justice. Group 3 is led by Solano, San Jose del Fragua, La Montañita, Puerto Leguizamo, 
and Puerto Rico; they are distinguished mainly by a low perception of illicit crops in the region, as 
well as a high presence of police and military forces, the presence of official representatives, formal 
and alternative justice, a good level of proactivity of the government's actions on security, and a high 
level of use of the police. 
74
Figure 30: Regional Analysis - conditions for economic growth
Source: CDLO Survey Data
9.4Objective 4: Social Inclusion and Governance.
The rates taken into consideration for this goal were the level of territorial roots, property tax 
payment, willingness to participate in public affairs, incidence of the organizations, honesty in the 
management of public resources, bribe levels, guarantee of their rights, trust in the institutions, trust 
in the justice system and the rate of social inclusion. The first cluster is led by Barbacoas, Lopez de 
Micay, Magui, Santa Barbara and Olaya Herrera. The rates that distinguish them are the high levels 
of attachment to their social roots, and the low perception of the management of public resources 
by the authorities, the low rates of property tax payment, the low levels of social inclusion and the 
organizations' capacity to influence. 
Conversely, the second cluster led by Montelibano, Puerto Asis, Miraflores, Piamonte, and La 
Macarena, distinguishes itself mainly for the low levels of attachment to their roots. Lastly the third 
cluster led by Puerto Caicedo, La Montañita, Briceño, Valdivia and El Retorno, municipalities that 
share high rates of property tax payment and a good perception of the management of public 
resources; the inhabitants believe that their organizations have an impact on public decisions and 
have low levels of attachment to their roots.
75
Figure 31: Regional Analysis - Social Inclusion and Governance
Source: CDLO Survey Data
In conclusion, the cluster analysis shows three important aspects: the first is that the municipalities 
are grouped by sub-regions constantly throughout the metrics, sharing a set of social, economic, 
geographic, and demographic phenomena that identify them as common. The second is that those 
showing low levels on these rates are consistent with the four objectives (analysis dimensions), and 
those in a better situation are there due to the various objectives. The Pacific Coast of Nariño and 
Cauca leads in the municipalities where the various analyses by dimensions (goals) show a more 
serious situation. The municipalities in the Central and Southern Caqueta region are consistently 
showing positive behavior in their rates. The regions of Southern Cordoba, Lower Cauca 
Antioqueño, Macarena, Guaviare, and Putumayo are clearly not the extreme municipalities in terms 
of conditions, like those on the pacific coast, and they show heterogeneity in their behavior; they 
have some rates where they stand out, and others where they show low levels. The third is that 
there are some municipalities that behave very differently from their regional neighbors and can be 
interpreted as outliers. For example, on issues of social capital, San Andres de Tumaco appears in 
the set of municipalities that show better performance in the indicators for social capital and 
community organization, while its geographic neighbors on the Pacific coast of Nariño and Cauca 
have the lowest rates. 
76
10. ANSWER TO THE DEVELOPMENT 
HYPOTHESIS
The development hypothesis of the CDLO program states that: “IF the communities affected by the 
armed conflict are strengthened and empowered such that they become reliable allies in 
implementing alternative and rural development solutions, THEN this will improve the conditions 
for inclusive economic and social-rural development, AND will improve the quality of life and 
opportunities in the former conflict zones, which will in turn provide better foundations for 
sustainable and lasting peace.”76
The following paragraph explains the transmission mechanisms of the development hypothesis in 
which the CDLO Program is circumscribed: "the armed conflict damages trust between 
communities, destroys social networks, and weakens the existing institutions (s1). The communities 
inhabiting the regions affected by conflict lack social networks and standards of trust to facilitate the 
coordination and cooperation that will allow them to achieve common goals and mutual benefits 
(s2). Thus, building social capital is a key component in achieving social, community, and economic 
development in post-conflict community scenarios. In the affected regions, the lack of social capital 
is a reflection of the armed conflict (s3), as well as the weak presence of a government that struggles 
in supplying basic services and legal economic opportunities (s4). The latter feeds an illicit rural 
economy, particularly illicit drugs and their entire production chain (growing, producing, and 
trafficking) (s5). These chains of events are destructively strengthened, contributing to the perpetuity 
of conflict and poverty (s6)."77 This set of premises is interconnected and provides priceless input 
to disclose the intrinsic causal mechanisms (e.g. this may be seen under the light of propositional 
logic of form: 𝑝 → 𝑞)
 
76 USAID / CDLO (2017), Draft Activity Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Plan – AMELP, Tetra Tech. 
77 Ibid.
77
Figure 32: Development Hypothesis
Given the set of CBS variables, a hierarchical analysis was conducted on the basis of a PCA, which 
includes all of the previously created analytical tasks in order to create groups of variables that 
would help provide sense to the question and remove the variables that would not help answer it.
From this initial analysis, five groups of variables are chosen given the respective momentum (Annex 
27). Given the previously derived groups, the dimensions are named based on the vectors they 
contain:
Table 13: Rates and Dimensions of the Development Hypothesis
Group Dimension 
name
Associated rates
1 Insecurity and 
Illegality
Perception of the existence of illicit crops, perception of the existence of 
illegal mining, perception of illegality of the crops, presence of non￾government security, common crime, displacement, extortion, presence of 
illegal armed groups, homicide, landmines.
2 Government 
Assurances
Trust in the institutions, assurance of rights, government actions on 
security and trust in the justice system. 
3 Government 
Security Justice
Presence of mechanisms for alternative justice, the presence of formal 
justice, presence of official representatives, military forces and police. 
4 Legality Rate of law enforcement, consistency in actions with the norms, culture of 
legality and social inclusion. 
5 Citizen View of 
the Government
Rate of citizen services, perception of the management of public resources, 
accountability and tertiary road maintenance. 
6 Social Capital Rate of collective actions, supply of public goods, representation of the 
organizations, rate of tolerance, rate of resilience, rate of participation in 
Community Action Boards, trust in the individuals and willingness to 
participate in public affairs. 
(s1) Weakens institutions
(s1) Destroys social networks
(s1) Distrust
(s2) Lack of cooperation
(s2) Poor coordination
(s4) Absence of legal economic 
opportunities
Illicit Rural Economy
Poverty
+
Conflict
(s3) Lack of Social Capital
78
Lastly, each group is treated as a single dimension, which is introduced as one in ACP, which will 
provide an answer to the final hypothesis as shown in Annex 27. This analysis provides for two 
conclusions to the development hypothesis: as shown in the correlograms and by more sophisticated 
analyses, the effects of the conflict and insecurity have a strong influence on the social capital 
variables, government assurance, legality, and the collective vision of the territory. The projection 
of the conflict vector in the circle below shows the strength and relevance of this set of variables 
compared to all others. The signs of the conflict variables are NEGATIVE while all the others have 
a POSITIVE sign. Consequently, the conflict dimension is the negative trigger of a set of variables of 
social capital, community organization, government presence (service coverage and quality), culture 
of legality, trust in the institutions. 
Figure 33: Main Components Analysis of the Development Hypothesis
Source: CDLO Survey Data
This figure shows that we have a set of dimensions represented by vectors that are oriented to the 
right, toward the same direction. This means that there is a direct relationship between the five 
dimensions of legality, government assurances, the civic vision of the territory, collective action and 
social capital, and justice. This direct relationship means that while one increases, the other four 
have the possibility of increasing in the same direction. It must be noted that this analysis does not 
imply causality because there is no predetermined formal model being tested. The vectors project 
well in space, which is interpreted as their importance or explanatory capacity; small arrows would 
indicate that they are variables that are not well represented by that space. Conversely, the vectors 
are distributed somewhat homogeneously in space, which suggests that they are not the same 
variable or linear dependence. Although their relationship is positive, dispersion in space implies 
redundancy; each vector does not repeat the other's information. Closer vectors such as 
government assurances and legality seem to have a closer direct relationship. Collective action and 
citizen vision of the territory are another group that shares a strong direct relationship. 
The point that stands out the most in this model is the vector of insecurity and illegality that is 
pointed in a different direction from all the others. This implies a negative relationship in most cases;
that is, while the conditions of legality or government assurances increase, the conditions of 
insecurity and illegality decrease. It is very interesting that the vector of insecurity has a significant 
projection. This means that this dimension provides good variability to the model; it is a relevant 
dimension. 
79
11. DASHBOARD
In this section, CBS adds the rates at municipal level, offering a single piece of data that represents 
the level of the variable (rate) for each municipality. Following the same color pattern and given that 
all of the rates are between zero and one, they may be standardized in the sense that the color 
marks the extreme negative point and the blue the extreme positive point. This allows for presenting 
all of the rates in order by goal, and aggregated by municipality, according to the region. Annex 25
contains a rates analysis by geographical unit, which provides CDLO with synthetic and comparative 
information for decision making based on the program. The Dashboard derived from this analysis is 
a managerial tool that allows the program to analyze program strengths, weaknesses, and challenges 
in its territories, according to the variables of interest. The columns are municipalities that are 
aggregated by sub-regions and regions. The rows contain the variables in order according to CDLO 
goals, dimensions, categories, and variables. To the left is the Central region with 12 municipalities, 
then the Northern region with 7, and the Southern region with 26 municipalities. This indicates that 
the data from the CDLO universe will have a large influence on the data in the southwest; the 
northern region has a little over one fourth of the municipalities of the southern region. 
The dashboard allows for visualizing the various differences and similarities between the regions, 
while respecting the general pattern; the southern region (especially the sub-regions of the pacific 
coast and the Nariño and Cauca mountain range) more affected by the variables of conflict and 
citizen security, although with higher levels of attachment to their roots. The perception of illegal 
mining is almost nonexistent in the center region, while it is much higher in the northwestern area 
and in some municipalities of the pacific coast. Property tax payment rates clearly show very low 
levels in the Pacific Coast of Nariño. 
Furthermore, the profiles in the sub-regions can be perceived. This perhaps indicates that there are 
common characteristics and they share certain behavioral patterns and environmental conditions 
that make them unique. For example, in the Central region there is a clear distinction between 
central and southern Caqueta, and the Macarena and Guaviare area. The differences in the 
northwestern region are clear between the lower Cauca Antioqueño and southern Cordoba. These 
differences are in the variables of security, the presence of justice, and the police, with the lowest 
being in southern Cordoba. The southwestern region shows a difference between the Pacific Coast 
of Nariño and Cauca, and the region of Putumayo on the border with Ecuador.
80
12. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The conclusions of the study are an abstraction of the evidence collected under the CDLO theory 
of change. The recommendations are based on the reading and the use of the information (Annex 
31). The study uses the rural population of 45 municipalities in Colombia, where the conditions of 
poverty, deprivation, and vulnerability are extreme in terms of low government presence, the 
intensity of the armed conflict, the presence of illicit crops, and extreme multidimensional and 
monetary poverty. The study draws on some aspects of social capital, community organization, the 
economic landscape, and inclusion and governance in the territory. 
The biophysical and cultural conditions of the regions make them very specific in their socio￾demographic, political, economic, and psychological variables. The regional and sub-regional 
differences are key in understanding the situation and explaining the logic of operating in the 
communities. In general terms, the sub-region of the Pacific coast of Nariño and Cauca has very high 
levels of vulnerability, given its basic living conditions and the impact of the conflict.
12.1 Conclusions
The CDLO critical assumptions are confirmed in the sense that their variables show extreme levels 
that are below than the national averages or even the national rural averages when the data are 
available. 
● Government presence in these regions has been very poor and is made evident by the lack 
of public utilities, low education levels, household access routes, and the low presence of 
public authorities (police, official representatives). These municipalities are classified as the 
lowest group according to the National Planning Department, and have serious 
shortcomings in mobilizing resources, zoning, and providing basic services.
● These territories have suffered from the effects of violence in previous decades. This is 
reflected in the high number of criminals arrested, people killed in combat, displacements, 
murders, and intra-family violence. The presence of illicit crops and illegal activities adds a 
security risk to communities, because these economies go together with non-government 
security organizations.
● CDLO municipalities host 70% of the coca crops in the country. In terms of the regional 
economic environment, this study looked into the market volume that this illicit economy 
represents as a benchmark (opportunity cost). As mentioned above, CBS performed 
calculations on the value chain of illicit crops (leaf, paste, base, hydrochloride) using the 
values and parameters provided by SIMCI (2016). Every hectare produces an average of 14 
million pesos per year in coca paste, which constitutes a significant opportunity cost for 
households. These illegal economies have a very strong economic and financial impact. For 
example, in a municipality with a small number of hectares for coca, such as Argelia (Cauca) 
with around 1,000 hectares, the annual production value in coca paste is around $5.3 million 
dollars. Meanwhile, the average annual budget for this municipality according to the General 
Participation System is around $2.5 million dollars.
● The multidimensional poverty conditions are extreme. The depth and severity of poverty 
are much higher in these parts of the country. The CDLO program is working in the places 
81
where the poorest households are located, in the country's poorest population. This has 
serious effects on the community in terms of the unfulfilled basic conditions prevalent 
throughout most of the community. According to the parameters established by the 
Government of Colombia for defining poverty, households do not have the minimum 
housing conditions in terms of access to sources of improved water, the elimination of 
human waste, and the conditions of the walls and floors. The conditions in which health and 
education services are provided are lagging in terms of the quality and coverage of basic 
services. 
● Income conditions are precarious and transportation costs are absolutely high. Household 
economic possibilities are limited, mainly due to the fact that the agrarian economies that 
operate in this region are non-competitive compared to local and national markets. The 
biggest obstacle for competitiveness is in the cost of access and transportation from 
households to the population centers. Families receive an average of $786,000 per month 
per household, where the average number of economically active people is 2.7. This yields 
a monthly income per person of $281,250. This amount must cover the cost of health, 
education, maintenance, savings, and project investments. Since the average cost to travel 
round-trip to the municipal seat is approximately $30,000 per person, the amount for a 
single trip to the municipal seat is 11% of the monthly income.
The CDLO program focuses on four key aspects: (1) social capital, (2) community organization for 
providing services, (3) the economic landscape, and (4) territorial governance and inclusion. 
● In terms of social capital, consistently low levels of trust in the CDLO regions were 
observed. People trust one out of every three people. The low trust levels affect any kind 
of subsequent social interaction, be it economic, social, or cultural. The levels of cooperation 
seen in collective actions are somewhat higher (62% of heads of households say they are 
willing to collaborate in joint actions with members of their communities). The communities 
organize to solve common, vital problems. These opposing values between low levels of 
trust and high levels of collective action are what may explain why participation is sporadic 
and passive in community organizations. Resilience levels are high, inherent to the people 
who have undergone difficult situations and have nevertheless overcome them, to make 
sense of the world and have the psychological sanity to face the future. 
● The high willingness to engage in public matters contrasts with a low quality due to their 
lack of continuity over time. Although people say they have a high willingness to participate, 
it is sporadic and weak. This translates into organizations with high incidence and credibility 
in the territory, with strong community bases. However, their ability to convene and manage 
large projects is limited. People have high credibility in their community leaders and 
representatives. Sixty-seven percent of heads of households feel that their organizations 
represent them. As mentioned above, the key organization par excellence in the territory 
is the Community Action Board, followed by the Parents Association and sports, cultural 
and women's organizations. The importance of the Indigenous Councils and Community 
Councils must be emphasized as a key player in collective territories. Social organization has 
a local agenda that revolves mainly around resolving basic life issues, roads, and public goods 
or services. 
● The economic landscape is strongly determined by two factors: the level of isolation in which 
the communities live, and the presence of armed actors outside the government, who place 
economic and property rights at risk, and also the fundamental rights of life and personal 
82
integrity. First, isolation, which constitutes a cost associated with all stakeholders, limiting 
operations in the region. It affects family household economies, given that the cost for a 
person to commute from their home to the town center represents approximately 10% of 
their income, therefore the household must carefully choose the investment of going out. 
It strongly affects the ability of public officials and government institutions to commute and 
provide public services, including police, public defenders, prosecutors, and the whole 
network of public servants. Conversely, the presence of illegal armed groups places the 
rights of citizens at risk regarding their security, physical integrity, and property. For these 
actors, isolation is actually a comparative advantage that they use to impose rules that are 
very different from the formal, constitutional ones. Because of their profitability, illegal 
economies provide the resources needed to maintain the high costs of commuting and 
operation in these areas. Security conditions are a decisive factor in establishing an 
environment for investment and development. If security conditions do not improve, private 
investment will not be attracted.
● On land governance and inclusion, the relationship between the government and the 
community is marked by history. The high levels of distrust in institutions are due mainly to 
their absence, or the lack of interest, quality, and effective services. The low rates of police 
use contrast with the high rates of the use of Community Action Boards as a mechanism 
for conflict resolution. This is indicative of the lack of police effectiveness in fulfilling its 
mission, and the communities' pragmatic solution in the absence of a service. The 
communities' experience with rural development programs that have been executed in the 
territories has been predominantly negative. According to the people surveyed, the 
difficulties in these programs are a result of the scarce interconnection between 
organizations and entities, corruption at every level, and the lack of community participation 
in their design and planning. In many cases, the communities benefiting from rural 
development programs say they feel used by the entities and organizations, because they 
are not allowed to be active subjects of their own development, and their engagement in 
the programs is limited to receiving consumables and training for planting non-traditional 
products; they have no productive vocation in the regions, or no commercial possibilities. 
In summary, the communities have become the main characters and spectators of one failure 
after another. The recommendations made by the CDLO survey respondents are: social 
infrastructure investment, leveraging and continuity for the processes being carried out in 
the territories, and community participation in decision making.
Overall, the statistical analyses match the qualitative evidence and provide certainty on two 
important aspects. The first is that the assumptions determine the program's conditions: (a) poverty 
determines the level of social capital and the economic landscape; (b) the economic landscape 
imposes very high costs in transportation and production, and market prices are not competitive 
because they compete for price in a market economy; (c) illegal economies always come in with 
their own security apparatus to the regions, and therefore increase the levels of conflict. The second 
aspect is that regional dynamics impose each territory’s own logic, which allows for determining 
local heterogeneity, suggesting a differential strategy for the program. 
The negative correlation between variables of conflict and social capital is evident. The higher the 
levels of conflict (homicide, the presence of illegal armed groups, extortion) the lower the levels of 
social capital (trust, collective action, willingness to engage in public matters). That same correlation 
remains for the variables of conflict and social-community organization, affecting participation in 
organizations and undermining organization representation with their associates. Lastly, the conflict 
83
causes a negative effect on government presence (the presence of the police, official representatives, 
the existence of formal justice institutions or conflict resolution alternatives). 
There is a surprisingly positive relationship between the variables of social capital, social and 
community organizations, government presence, and good governance. These conclusions basically 
confirm the underlying relationships in the development hypothesis. There is a virtuous circle 
between social capital, social and community organizations, institutional presence, inclusion, and 
territorial governance.
12.2 Recommendations
The general recommendations from the CBS study seek to guide programmatic intervention based 
on optimizing scarce resources while facing monumental challenges. 
● Strengthening engagement with entities. It is important to improve a relationship that has 
historically been weak, and in many cases, extractive. Enhancing trust in institutions depends 
directly on the quality public services provided and the effective assurance of citizen rights. 
The Government of Colombia must cover the entire territory and provide the communities 
with services so that citizens have the facts, tools, and channels to resolve their basic issues. 
The qualitative research of this study shows the hope in communities for a government that 
guides the development processes and provides assistance in ensuring their fundamental 
rights, and they also hint at the fear that the future causes regarding the possible setbacks 
that institutions may have.
● Harnessing strengths. There is a base in the territories that is incipient in terms of it being 
a basic administration organization, but very solid in social and geographic governance terms. 
Households in general show a high willingness to engage in public affairs and are very active 
in managing their own solutions. The poverty conditions may turn this strength into a 
weakness given that, if the development program is not attuned to its territorial counterpart, 
the hunt for fresh cooperation resources may lead the communities to break ties and show 
non-cooperative behavior that is highly undesirable in any intervention.
● The local development agendas are simple, and mandatory pathways. They represent a 
natural progression in establishing modern governments and are almost a prerequisite for 
the following: Security and Legality, Government Presence and Rights Assurance, Basic 
Unfulfilled Needs, Trust and Cooperation, Local Governance, and a Collective Vision of the 
Land. The government cannot send representatives or officials to areas where the conflict 
is very intense. The first security condition must be provided so that others can operate. 
Developing a vigorous economy starts by having basic needs covered such as potable water, 
electric power, and adequate means for waste disposal. Any investment in economic 
development without these basic conditions will be severely hindered. 
● Risk Zones: Pacific Coast of Nariño and Cauca. The municipalities in the pacific coast of the 
departments of Nariño and Cauca have low figures in the variables for living conditions, 
social capital, and social inclusion. In turn, they are the ones that show the highest rates of 
conflict effects and the absence of government institutions. In this region, the market's 
economic balance makes it difficult for legality. Norte de Santander and the Catatumbo 
84
region are very high-risk areas. So much so, that the study was forced to cancel its 
operations on the ground in this area. The security conditions are serious and will determine 
the possibilities of any operation. 
● This study provides a tool that summarizes the baseline in a Dashboard. This dashboard 
allows for visualizing the key context variables and program results so decision makers can 
perform dynamic resource optimization, given the enormous time, financial, and operating 
restrictions. 
85
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