Women farmers at HTMA on-farm demonstrations at Dumarvana district, Nepal. Photo courtesy of PH Zaidi, CIMMYT. HEAT STRESS TOLERANT MAIZE FOR SOUTH ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2016 This document was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared independently by David L. Beck, Ph.D. and Dil Bahadur Gurung, Ph.D. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The HTMA External Evaluation Team wishes to acknowledge CIMMYT-India and all project partners and stakeholders for sharing your time and talent with us during the course of this review. Special thanks go to the Project Leader who was faithfully with us throughout our visits to Nepal and India. We are also grateful to HTMA field trials collaborators for arranging field signs and handouts and also for traveling long distances to meet us during the visit. As an evaluation team we count it a privilege to evaluate this uniquely effective project and hope that at least some of our observations and suggestions will provide useful guidance to project leadership and partners leading to greater impact. Finally, we extend our thanks to the U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Food Security, for its guidance and support throughout the course of the evaluation, and to Elizabeth Skewgar for editing of this document. CONTENTS ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................. i TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... iii FIGURES..................................................................................................................................... iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................ v Program Background .......................................................................................................................... v External Evaluation Overview ............................................................................................................ vi Project Management ......................................................................................................................... vi Research Project ...............................................................................................................................viii Lessons Learned ................................................................................................................................xiii 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 1 Program Background .......................................................................................................................... 1 Evaluation Overview ........................................................................................................................... 2 2. PROJECT MANAGEMENT EVALUATION ................................................................................... 7 Project Management Findings............................................................................................................. 7 Project Management Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 17 Project Management Recommendations .......................................................................................... 18 Project Management Lessons Learned .............................................................................................. 20 3. RESEARCH PROJECT EVALUATION ......................................................................................... 21 Objective 1 ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Objective 2 ....................................................................................................................................... 31 Objective 3 ....................................................................................................................................... 35 Objective 4 ....................................................................................................................................... 41 Objective 5 ....................................................................................................................................... 58 4. PROJECT FUTURE .................................................................................................................. 64 Project Management ........................................................................................................................ 64 Research Project ............................................................................................................................... 65 APPENDIX A: SCOPE OF WORK ................................................................................................. 67 APPENDIX B: EVALUATION PLAN .............................................................................................. 69 APPENDIX C: TRAVEL ITINERARY, LOCATIONS AND DATES OF FIELD VISITS .............................. 81 APPENDIX D: LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED ............................................................................. 82 APPENDIX E: LIST OF MATERIALS REVIEWED ............................................................................ 84 APPENDIX F: PHOTOGRAPHS .................................................................................................... 88 Project Implementation Team Response to External Evaluation Report ................................... 93 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT i ACRONYMS AFU Agriculture and Forestry University, Nepal ASI Anthesis silking interval BARI Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Bangladesh BAU Bihar Agricultural University, India BFS Bureau for Food Security CAAM CIMMYT-Asia association mapping (panel) CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo) DGDG Digalactosyldiacylglycerol (lipid involved in heat tolerance in plants) DH Doubled haploid DHTC Doubled haploid top cross DTMA Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa DTMA-AM DTMA association mapping (panel) EET External evaluation team EQ Evaluation question FGD Focus group discussion GBS Genotyping-by-sequencing GEBV Genomic estimated breeding value GMP Global Maize Program GS Genomic selection GWAS Genome-wide association study HTAM Heat tolerant association mapping (panel) HTMA Heat Stress Tolerant Maize for South Asia IBP Integrated Breeding Platform ICAR Indian Council of Agriculture Research ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics KII Key informant interview MNC Multi-national corporation MMRP Maize & Millets Research Institute, Pakistan MPS Multi-parent synthetic HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT ii NARS National agricultural research system NMRP National Maize Research Program, Nepal OPV Open-pollinated variety PI Principal investigator PMC Project Management Committee PPP Public-private partnership PSC Project Steering Committee PVP Plant Variety Protection PVS Participatory varietal selection QTL Quantitative trait loci RCGS Rapid-cycle genomic selection RIL Recombinant inbred line SME Small & medium enterprises SNP Single nucleotide polymorphism UAS University of Agricultural Sciences, India USAID United States Agency for International Development VPD Vapor pressurized deficit (a measure of abiotic stress) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT iii TABLES Table 1. Funds leveraged from other sources for HTMA activities. ............................... 11 Table 2. Description of multi-parent synthetic populations formed ................................ 36 Table 3. Field performance of multi-parent synthetics (MPS) and top progenies .......... 38 Table 4. HTMA hybrids at different stages of testing in 2016 ........................................ 42 Table 5. Selection of HTMA hybrids .............................................................................. 44 Table 6. First set of HTMA hybrids licensed to project partners for deployment ........... 45 Table 7. HTMA project partner hybrid selections .......................................................... 48 Table 8. DHTC hybrids selected by HTMA project partners .......................................... 50 Table 9. HTMA production of inbred lines and hybrid seeds ......................................... 51 Table 10. Quantitative observations of field trials .......................................................... 53 Table 11. Field trial descriptions and remarks ............................................................... 54 Table 12. Short-term training courses by HTMA ........................................................... 59 Table 13. HTMA graduate students in the U.S. and South Asia .................................... 60 Table 14. Evaluation plan summary for research questions .......................................... 70 Table 15. Evaluation plan summary for management questions ................................... 71 Table 16. Travel itinerary of the External Evaluation Team ........................................... 81 Table 17. List of persons contacted by the External Evaluation Team .......................... 82 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT iv FIGURES Figure 1. Management structure for the HTMA Project. .................................................. 8 Figure 2. The “Perfect Alliance” of public-private partnerships in HTMA. ...................... 12 Figure 3. Flow diagram of HTMA objectives, activities, pathways, products, and impact ................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 4. Manhattan plot showing genetic basis for leaf lipid metabolism in maize ....... 24 Figure 5. RNA expression of maize leaves exposed to optimal heat and stressed conditions ............................................................................................................... 26 Figure 6. Thermal variability of a corn field over the course of a day ............................ 28 Figure 7. Diagram of possible data flows over the life cycle of an annual seed crop .... 29 Figure 8. Example of sensors mounted on a high-clearance tractor ............................. 30 Figure 9. Schematic flow of rapid-cycle genomic selection (RCGS) ............................. 37 Figure 10. Participants in HTMA training courses held in India ..................................... 88 Figure 11. Comparison at harvest of new HTMA heat-tolerant hybrid ........................... 89 Figure 12. Comparison of leaves and tassels of heat-tolerant maize line ..................... 90 Figure 13. H. turcicum leaf blight ................................................................................... 91 Figure 14. Tassel sterility .............................................................................................. 92 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Program Background Millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia grow maize for subsistence or income under rain-fed conditions and the climate is becoming warmer and drier. While the demand for maize is significantly increasing due to several factors maize yields in the major maize-growing South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh) remain below 3 tons per hectare. At the same time, nearly 80 per cent of the maize growing area in this region is rain-fed and highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, including drought and high temperatures. Out of the estimated 6 million hectares of hybrid maize grown in South Asia, about a million hectares are highly vulnerable to high temperature stress especially during flowering. In some of these areas, drought and heat stress commonly occur at the same time. Maize varieties with tolerance to key abiotic stresses, especially high temperatures and water deficit, will play an important role in adaptation of farming communities, especially smallholders, to the changing climate. In order to address these challenges and opportunities the Heat Stress Tolerant Maize for South Asia (often shortened to Heat Tolerant Maize for Asia, or HTMA) project was initiated in January 2013 to enhance the adaptive capacity of resource-poor farm families in South Asia to climatic-change related risks and to increase their food and income security through accelerated development and deployment of heat stress resilient, high yielding maize hybrids. The project has 5 objectives: 1. Dissect the expression of heat stress tolerance of maize to identify genes, component traits, and mechanisms that predict adaptation to stressful environments in South Asia. 2. Identify and validate favorable genes/haplotypes controlling adaptation of maize to heat stress in the tropical environments of South Asia. 3. Implement rapid-cycle genomic selection for generating open-source multi￾parental synthetic populations and for further deriving doubled haploid (DH) lines with resilience to heat stress. 4. Deploy heat stress resilient elite maize cultivars in the target agro-ecologies of South Asia through a regional alliance of public and private sector partners. 5. Strengthen capacity of alliance partners, including South Asian maize breeding and local seed companies, to sustainably serve climate change-vulnerable maize production systems in the tropics. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT vi External Evaluation Overview The overall aim of the external performance evaluation of the HTMA project was to provide empirical evidence to respond to evaluation questions designed to support lessons learned and continuous improvement for Bureau for Food Security's work in product development. The evaluation team assessed the effectiveness and contributions of the Project Management entity, and the progress toward research outputs and outcomes. This evaluation provides information and recommendations to the U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Food Security (BFS), to improve project effectiveness, better achieve intended outcomes, and foster greater access to new technologies, including high yielding heat stress resilient maize hybrids, to the smallholder farmers in South Asia. The evaluation took place from April - September 2016. Key data and information sources included over 20 interviews conducted with project partners, observation taken during visits to various heat stressed field sites, and project documents including annual reports, progress reports, and refereed journal articles. Evaluation questions (EQs) are listed in Appendix A and referenced throughout the text. EQ 7b, regarding the support of Missions, was not evaluated. Project Management Findings CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) is the implementing partner and has the overall responsibility for HTMA project coordination and implementation, along with alliance partners and relevant stakeholders in the four targeted countries in South Asia (India, Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh). Bhutan joined as a 5th country in 2015. The external evaluation team (EET) found that the HTMA project management is sound, has capable and dedicated leaders, and is functioning very well, largely to the credit of the Oversight Director (Global Maize Director of CIMMYT), and the Project Leader (the CIMMYT Asian Region Senior Scientist). (EQ 5a) A key aspect of HTMA is a public-private partnership (PPP). The observations of the evaluation team and most interviewees confirm strong project partnerships between CIMMYT, universities, public sector NARS (national agricultural research system), and private companies. CIMMYT, with its decades of experience in research and development through collaborative activities in the Asian region and globally is clearly the leader and key facilitator of the project. A majority of HTMA partners have met or exceeded their commitments to the project (EQ 6a). The project annual meeting provides a key opportunity for project management and partners to meet face to face and discuss results, plans, and challenges. Joint participation in project training workshops has provided further opportunities for public and private partners to build relationships and further teamwork. (EQ 5b) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT vii Major project challenges include the time and resources needed both to pursue the upstream research identifying candidate genes for underlying heat tolerant mechanisms and for downstream research deploying superior heat tolerant hybrids. Added to this is the unexpected high number of top-performing hybrids under heat stress in the first wave plus the addition of 11 private sector partners resulting in the project being thrust into the deployment phase well in advance of the original project plan. The project needs to improve coordination with and participation of smaller project country partners who sometimes feel “overshadowed” by their Indian neighbor. Despite the stated intentions of many, the participation of women at all levels of the project is low. (EQ 5c) Recommendations  We do not recommend changes in the project management structure, which is functioning very well, except that the growth of private sector partners from 3 to 14 may require increasing the number of senior private sector representatives on the Project Steering Committee (PSC) from 1 to 3. (EQ 4a)  Project management has leveraged funds from several sources to help finance the extra deployment work but we recommend that consideration be given to increasing staff and resource allocations. Our first priority for staffing increases would be to provide the project leader, who bears a heavy responsibility for the project in addition to his other duties, with a scientist assistant. (EQ 5a)  Project management needs to strengthen coordination with and participation among partners particularly the smaller project country NARS outside of India. We recommend that the project management give this high priority and implement more joint monitoring of on-going activities in these regions, exchange visits of researchers and technical staff, and provide further training opportunities for partners in the smaller project countries. Allocating a scientist/assistant to work with the project leader would also allow this team to increase communication and visits to these countries. (EQ 5b, 6c)  Despite the stated intentions of many, the participation of women at all levels of the project (including management, scientists, graduate students, and participants in training programs) is low. The gender imbalance remains and needs to be addressed immediately. (EQ 6c)  Based on partners with differing cultures and mandates (both because of country/region and/or public/private sector) the project has the ongoing challenge to build further trust and understanding among its diverse collaborators. We recommend that project leaders need to continually look for complementarities and ways to further strengthen communication and relationships among public-private sector scientists/leaders. Unity is very hard to build but easy to rupture. It is also important that all partners bring something significant to the table to contribute to the project. We also encourage partners to have a greater willingness to share information and technology, particularly the private sector in the area of seed production research and product deployment. (EQ 6b) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT viii  Interaction between BFS and the HTMA can be maintained by continuing regular attendance at the annual meeting, site visits, maintaining close communication and looking together for ways and resources to better achieve project objectives. (EQ 7a) Research Project The overall goal of the project is to enhance the adaptive capacity of the resource-poor farm families in South Asia to manage climate-change related risks, and increase their food and income security through accelerated development and inclusive deployment of new heat stress resilient high yielding maize hybrids. Evaluation findings (EQs 1 and 3) and recommendations (EQ 2) are found in the following sections, organized by project objectives. Objective 1: Dissect the expression of heat stress tolerance to identify component traits, genes, and genetic loci that predict or confer adaptation to stressful environments in South Asia. Findings A team of professors and graduate students from Purdue University are key project partners who have taken the lead addressing this challenging goal. This group has made major contributions to the basic science of heat tolerance in maize. They have shown that heat and drought tolerance are not the same and that the lipid composition in the cellular membranes (particularly the chloroplasts) are critical to the stability of maize under heat stress. They have used state of the art technologies such as lipidome analysis, RNA sequence profiling, and transposon tagged mutations to search for the biochemical and genetic mechanisms responsible for heat tolerance. They have applied genome-wide association studies (GWAS), quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping, and linkage analysis to identify candidate genes for heat tolerance. In addition to the science we commend the Purdue principal investigator (PI) and his team for developing excellent working relationships with CIMMYT and other project partners. Recommendations  As quick as is practically possible, we recommend that the various on-going studies should be completed, particularly those focusing on identifying candidate genes, and published in refereed journals.  We recommend that the project consider further sampling the 300+ ex-Plant Varietal Protection (PVP) lines that the Project PI currently has in his Purdue nursery (only 23 have been used to date in the project) as sources of earliness, yield potential, and heat and drought tolerance. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT ix Objective 2: Identify and validate favorable genes/haplotypes controlling adaptation of maize to heat stress in the tropical environments of South Asia. Findings Identifying candidate genes for heat stress tolerance in maize hybrids is a challenging task for many reasons including the complexity of the plant, complexity of the abiotic stress, diversity in the testing environments, and G x E interactions. The HTMA project team has done outstanding work to identify and begin validating genes/haplotypes for heat tolerance in maize. Using precision phenotyping in multiple environments under heat stress and optimal conditions, followed by the application of appropriate bio￾statistical tools, the project has made significant progress both identifying heat stress tolerant germplasm and understanding the genetic basis for the tolerance response. The GWAS analysis of the HTMA panel was a high quality major effort to identify potential candidate genes which are being validated in different independent association mapping panels and bi-parental populations. The project’s application of methylation profiling in maize heat stress tolerance research is the first of its kind with results which may have great significance. Recommendations  It is critical that the project scientists pull together the results of studies to clearly validate and confirm the most significant candidate genes for heat tolerance. In this context we commend the project team for recently developing a catalog in Excel format with genotypic and phenotypic information as it relates to heat tolerance of CIMMYT and project partner germplasm, and recommend that it be kept up to date with ongoing work.  A new Java tool to aid genomic selection has been developed and should prove useful. These data tools need to be made available to project partners as quickly as possible.  We recommend investigating the IBP (International Breeding Platform) Breeding Management System developed by the Generation Challenge Program which has many useful functions that may benefit the HTMA project.  We recommend several sources of additional germplasm. Objective 3: Implement rapid-cycle genomic selection (RCGS) for generating open-source multi-parental synthetic populations and for further deriving double haploid (DH) lines with resilience to heat stress. Findings The project is to be commended for forming six multi-parent synthetic (MPS) populations and for utilizing RCGS in their improvement. We support the use of the RCGS scheme for rapid cycle genetic improvement in synthetic populations plus the formation of early generation and DH lines derived from them. The project team wisely HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT x distributed bulk seed of F2:3 families selected by partners on the basis of test cross performance at their target environment. Seven project partners from three countries in both the public and private sector received anywhere from 34 to 117 bulks which should be an excellent source of breeding material to develop heat stress tolerant inbreds. Although savings in time and field resources compared to conventional recurrent selection (RS) procedures were evident, important validation of the RCGS approach is pending field testing of the synthetics, their improved cycles, and eventually the double haploid lines derived from them. Recommendations  This is the only objective where the HTMA has fallen short of the declared milestones. Only six synthetics formed plus most delayed in their development. The synthetics serve a dual purpose as both a source of genetic variability for the development of inbred lines (whether conventional or DH) and per se as open￾pollinated varieties (OPVs). The project needs to determine what priority it will give to the formation, improvement, and testing of synthetics as OPVs. The results from our interviews show that demand for OPVs varies depending on the project partner and country. We recommend that yield trial evaluations be conducted to compare project synthetics and hybrids under a range of conditions from high heat stress to optimal conditions.  The project needs to validate the effectiveness of RCGS for population (synthetic) improvement.  We fully support the current proposal presented to the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) to develop a DH facility in India to serve the Asian region. Objective 4: Initiate deployment of heat stress resilient elite maize hybrids in the target agro-ecologies of South Asia through a regional alliance of public and private sector partners Findings Thousands of experimental hybrids generated by the HTMA were evaluated during the first four years of the project in a total of 237 locations under optimal conditions and 63 locations under heat stress environments in the South Asia region. Hybrids demonstrating yields superior to the best commercial checks under both heat stressed and optimal condition were selected and advanced to next stages for further evaluation. The 24 first generation HTMA hybrids were planted in farmer' fields in demonstration blocks. During multiple field days, farmers selected 9 hybrids in Bangladesh, 8 in Nepal, 14 in Pakistan, 6 in Bhutan, and 6 in India. Additionally, three of these hybrids ranked in the top four positions in the All India Coordinated Multi-Location Regional Trial in 2015. CIMMYT has provided a total of 26 licenses for 18 hybrids licensed to 8 partners (as some hybrids were licensed to more than one partner, but in different geographic areas) from all four target countries. Among the eight HTMA partners, three are NARS partners from Nepal, Bangladesh and India and five are small and medium enterprises (SMEs) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT xi from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. CIMMYT also provided up to 1.0 kg seed of parental inbred line seed along with production research data on the inbreds to fast track hybrid production and for scaling up for the 2016-17 crop seasons. Thousands of second and third wave hybrids are working their way through the project’s testing system with promising results. Some of these hybrids include DH lines produced by Pioneer Hi-Bred India. Over 2,000 DH lines have been generously supplied to the project by Pioneer and thousands more are currently in development both at Pioneer and CIMMYT, Mexico. To generate consistent and accurate phenotypic data, the project has developed a new protocol for precision phenotyping for heat stress tolerance in maize to help ensure that data are collected by project partners. This information has been disseminated to researchers and technicians through an attractive and practical field manual entitled “Phenotyping for abiotic stress tolerance in maize – Heat stress” published by CIMMYT and by conducting several training workshops on this theme. Recommendations  The testing system for HTMA hybrids allows flexibility from Stage-III onwards. For this we recommend that number of entries particularly for Stage–III and MLT should be same for two seasons/two years. Number of entries of the trials and testing locations should also be same to have data for two years.  Large plot demonstrations of hybrids in many locations have significantly contributed to farmer interest and willingness to adopt hybrid technology. Therefore, emphasis should be given on demonstrating hybrids in large plots at many locations as possible. Multiple field days should be organized regularly in every season and year by responsible NARS research programs and their collaborating partners.  In discussions with maize scientists and technicians from SME, we learned that their seed companies do not own sufficient land to conduct all sets of experimental trials provided by the project. In this situation, the seed companies either have to rent land to conduct these trials or need to conduct in farmer's fields’ which is not very practical for Stage-I to III trial sets. The HTMA partners from Nepal expressed their views that it is not practical for them to evaluate large trials common in Stages I, II, and III because of large entry numbers and the fact that they do not own land for testing. However, these companies can handle stage-III and MLTs. If testing of all stage of trial is mandatory even to the seed companies, we recommend that the project should either reduce its number of trial sets (from Stage-I or II trials) or reduce number of entries.  We strongly recommend that an unpublished study on “Combining ability, heterosis and G x E interaction in tropical maize under heat stress and optimal environments,” completed in 2011, be written up and published, and also that more comprehensive and focused follow-up studies be conducted ideally lead by a Ph.D. student. We HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT xii suggest that all four issues listed above be addressed but that priority be given to gene action and dosage effects. Objective 5: Strengthen capacity of alliance partners, including South Asian maize breeding programs and local seed companies Findings The project team organized ten excellent short term training courses, on phenotyping for heat stress tolerance in maize, on genomic selection (molecular breeding), and on maize seed production. A total of 334 researchers and technical staff (significantly more than originally proposed) participated including 206 from India (61.7%), 61 from Nepal (18.3%), 35 from Pakistan (10.5%) and 32 from Bangladesh (9.6%). Women participants in the short-term training courses ranged from 2 (5.7%) in Pakistan to 29 (15.6%) in India averaging only 13.8% across all workshops. A total of 14 students (9 Ph.D. and 5 M.Sc.) from Bangladesh, Nepal, India and USA have been supported by the HTMA project to pursue degrees in plant breeding and molecular breeding at Purdue University in the USA and at various universities in South Asia. Of the total students, 7 Ph.D. students (2 at CIMMYT- India and 5 at Purdue University) have been fully supported by the project and the rest are supported for their research components. Three Ph.D. and 2 M.Sc. students have already completed their degrees. Students interviewed by the evaluation team have expressed full confidence that they can apply their new knowledge and skills in molecular breeding and precision phenotyping when they return to their home countries. All students interviewed indicated that professional short-term training courses organized by the project at CIMMYT￾Hyderabad and partnering countries in South Asia were well organized, well managed and very effective in helping trainees to obtain practical knowledge and skills in heat stress phenotyping, molecular breeding (genomic selection) and seed production. Recommendations  We strongly recommend that the short-term training courses be continued so that additional researchers/technical staff can benefit. Training is particularly needed for seed production (especially inbred line maintenance procedures), and for public sector partners in post-harvest technology, product promotion, and marketing. There is also high demand for training in molecular breeding.  The participation of women in both short and long term training is low and needs to be addressed.  Consider developing a HTMA hybrid maize seed production system network where seed companies and other producers can obtain technical backstopping, training, and other support. Additional staff time may be needed to support technical assistance on seed systems. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT xiii  The project should provide additional US Davis model weather stations to Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Pakistan in order to generate quality and consistent data among the project’s partners. Lessons Learned  We do not suggest changing the project structure or objectives of HTMA. (EQs 4a and 8a)  Objective 1: Precision phenotyping could be improved by new phenotyping methods that look at more traits over a greater number of plant development stages, using special sensors mounted on machinery that requires less field labor. (EQ 8b)  Objective 2: In field evaluations, individual locations and testers cause variation in results, so relaxed statistical thresholds may help identify promising genomic regions. (EQ 8b)  Objective 4: Expanding seed systems is difficult in the context of limited public capacity, conflicting private priorities, and heterogeneity in socioeconomic factors of adoption. We recommend that country/region specific practical modalities for hybrid seed production should be developed by NARS and seed companies. Line evaluations and socio-economic studies should be conducted in additional regions. Dedicated, specialist staff are needed. (EQs 4b and 8a)  We find that an increase in funding is justified due to rapid expansion in deployment activities, unexpected growth in the PPP, number of DH lines entering the research pipeline, and high demand for training. (EQ 8c) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 1 1. INTRODUCTION Program Background Millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia grow maize for subsistence or income under rain-fed conditions and the climate is becoming warmer and drier (Prasanna, 2011). While the demand for maize is significantly increasing due to several factors, including changing diets and a rapidly growing poultry sector, maize yields in the major maize-growing South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh) remains below 3 tons per hectare (FAOSTAT, 2011). At the same time, nearly 80 per cent of the maize growing area in this region is rain-fed and highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, including drought and high temperatures. Out of the estimated 6 million hectares of hybrid maize grown in South Asia, about a million hectares are highly vulnerable to high temperature stress especially during flowering. In some of these areas, drought and heat stress commonly occur at the same time. Maize varieties with tolerance to key abiotic stresses, especially water deficit and high temperatures, will play an important role in adaptation of farming communities, especially smallholders, to the changing climate (Cairns et al., 2013) In order to address these challenges and opportunities the Heat Stress Tolerant Maize for South Asia (often shortened to Heat Tolerant Maize for Asia, or HTMA) project was initiated in January 2013 to enhance the adaptive capacity of resource-poor farm families in South Asia to climatic-change related risks and to increase their food and income security through accelerated development and deployment of heat stress resilient, high yielding maize hybrids. The program is supported by the Bureau for Food Security (BFS) of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Work under HTMA focuses on the following five objectives: 1. Dissect the expression of heat stress tolerance of maize to identify genes, component traits, and mechanisms that predict adaptation to stressful environments in South Asia. 2. Identify and validate favorable genes/haplotypes controlling adaptation of maize to heat stress in the tropical environments of South Asia. 3. Implement rapid-cycle genomic selection for generating open-source multi￾parental synthetic populations and for further deriving doubled haploid (DH) lines with resilience to heat stress. 4. Deploy heat stress resilient elite maize cultivars in the target agro-ecologies of South Asia through a regional alliance of public and private sector partners. 5. Strengthen capacity of alliance partners, including South Asian maize breeding and local seed companies, to sustainably serve climate change-vulnerable maize production systems in the tropics. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 2 Led by CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center), the project includes university partners (Purdue University, University of Agricultural Sciences - Raichur, Bihar Agriculture University) national agricultural research partners (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Maize & Millets Research Institute/Pakistan, Nepal Agricultural Research Council), and seed companies including Pioneer, Ajeet Seeds, and Kaveri Seeds. The project utilizes cutting-edge genomics tools to develop heat tolerant maize hybrids that outperform current varieties in the target countries. Partnership with private seed companies ensures that new varieties are tested in local environments and rapidly disseminated to smallholder farmers. The main product of the project is the development and deployment of heat stress resilient maize inbred lines and high yielding hybrids with other important agronomic adaptive traits. The project utilizes an innovative public-private partnership (PPP) to develop and deliver heat stress resilient and high-yielding maize cultivars in South Asia. The project focuses on leveraging the germplasm base and technical expertise of the lead center (CIMMYT) in breeding for abiotic stress tolerance, coupled with the research capacity and expertise of the resource partners (Purdue University; Pioneer-Asia; and the national programs in four major maize-growing South Asian countries: India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh) and strengths of private seed partners (initially 4, now grown to 14 companies) in seed production and deployment. The private sector partners of the project play a key role in disseminating project products by multiplication of certified or quality declared seed of elite, best-bet hybrids, marketing and delivery of these products to the targeted maize-based farming communities in South Asia. The project also emphasizes strengthening human capital and sustainable local capacity in each of the target countries in South Asia for developing and deploying climate resilient maize germplasm. To accelerate the development and deployment of heat tolerant maize varieties the project is using new plant breeding strategies that utilize high-density genotyping based on next-generation DNA sequencing technology, genome-wide association studies (GWAS), rapid cycle genomic selection (RCGS), doubled haploid (DH) production, and field-based precision phenotyping in selected and managed heat stressed sites (Zaidi and Cairns, 2011). Evaluation Overview Evaluation Purpose The overall aim of the external performance evaluation of the Heat Tolerant Maize for South Asia (HTMA) project (Award # AID-BFS-G-11-00002) was to provide empirical evidence to respond to evaluation questions designed to support lessons learned and continuous improvement for Bureau for Food Security's work in product development. The evaluation team assessed the effectiveness and contributions of the Project Management entity, and the progress toward research outputs and outcomes. This evaluation provides information and recommendations to USAID/BFS to improve project HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 3 effectiveness, better achieve intended outcomes, and foster greater access to new technologies, including high yielding heat stress resilient maize hybrids, to the smallholder farmers in South Asia. Evaluation Team USAID/BFS contracted a two-member external evaluation team (EET) to conduct the evaluation of the HTMA project, which is being implemented by CIMMYT in India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan in South Asia and Bhutan (Bhutan joined in 2015). The evaluation team members are independent consultants who are senior maize breeders with a combined experience of research for development working in the public and private sectors. The evaluation team leader has global experience in maize breeding and seed systems in developing countries as well as in the U.S. The other technical team member has extensive experience in maize breeding and technology dissemination in the South Asia region, particularly Nepal. The team evaluated the overall performance of the project and its outputs in light of the project’s specific objectives, effectiveness and contributions of the project management, and provided recommendations according to the evaluation questions (EQ) in Appendix A. BFS Activity Managers and an M&E specialist provided guidance for the evaluation. Evaluation Methods Questionnaires were designed to project partners and stakeholders that included principal investigators (PIs), collaborating scientists, project staff, graduate students, and project stakeholders. The questionnaires were intended to answer the evaluation questions in the SOW, capturing the themes of project management (technical leadership, administration, financial management, monitoring and evaluation) and research program (research depth, breadth, rigor, collaboration, outreach and technology dissemination; human and institutional capacity building and gender inclusion). Evaluation questions on project research were focused on quality of research outputs, effectiveness of approaches adopted by the project; contributions to the project objectives from each partner, challenges encountered, and seed production of early generations, inbred line, hybrids and open pollinated varieties (OPVs). Evaluation questions on project management were designed to answer quality of collaboration and partnership, research design and implementation, and public-private partnerships. Questionnaires were administered in person in a semi–structured interview format. Qualitative data (interview data and field notes of project observations) were used to address the evaluation questions. Data collection was carried out from May 13-15 and May 29-30, 2016 in Nepal by one of the evaluation team members and from May 17-25, 2016 in India by both members following the Evaluation Plan in Appendix B. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected from key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussion (FGDs), field observations and meetings with multiple stakeholders during the field visits of the evaluation team to India and Nepal. Visits were timed to coincide with the heat stress season (per itinerary in Appendix C). Qualitative data (interviews, FGDs, meetings, and HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 4 field notes of project observations) were used to address evaluation questions as outlined in the SOW covering research and management questions (Appendix D). Data and information were also obtained through the review of HTMA documents (Appendix E). Illustrative photos are presented in Appendix F. KIIs were carried out at CIMMYT-Hyderabad; University of Agricultural Sciences, (UAS), Raichur and Amritsar, Punjab in India from May 17-25, 2016. A semi-structured questionnaire was developed for KIIs and FGDs and followed during the interviews. HTMA leaders, collaborating project leaders (Co-PIs), collaborating scientists/researchers, private sector partners, graduate students and collaborating farmers were interviewed. Similarly, in Nepal, the data were taken in National Maize Research Program (NMRP), Chitwan, Bara, and Nawalparasi districts from May 13-15, 2016 and in NARC-RARS, Nepalgunj from May 29-30, 2016. Two sittings of FGDs were conducted at Bara district in Nepal while visiting to the HTMA hybrid demonstration plots on May 13, 2016. The FGDs were conducted in small groups comprised of five farmers and discussion was guided by semi-structured questionnaire. Collective views, ideas, opinions, and motivations of the farmers were captured. The team attended a meeting organized at CIMMYT-Hyderabad on May 18, 2016 where the HTMA project leader and project objective coordinators gave briefings. The HTMA project leader gave an overview of the project and progress achieved, and the coordinators for the five project objectives presented the progress for each objective. Discussions were followed after each presentation. The team also attended the presentation by the Co-PI of HTMA from UAS, Raichur on May 19, 2016 on project activities being conducted in Raichur and Bheemarayanagudi (B.Gudi) in Karnataka, India. The university faculty members and graduate students were also present at the meeting. Interviews with Co-PI and graduate students were conducted after the presentation. On May 24, 2016, a wrap up meeting was held at Amritsar, Punjab, where two project progress presentations were made by Co-PIs from Bangladesh and Nepal. Moreover, the HTMA project leader presented the progress of the project in Pakistan and Bhutan. The Co-PIs from Pakistan and Bhutan could not attend the meeting because of visa problems. The oversight maize director explained to the team how the project was initiated and where it is heading. The evaluation team visited selected research sites to see trials and products of heat stress tolerant maize inbred lines and hybrids. During the visit, the team discussed with selected farmers to learn about their interest and perception on HTMA products and the project. The team also met with group of farmers in the field visit site who came to see the performance of HTMA hybrids and interacted with them about the project. While visiting heat tolerant maize trials, the team made scores for each activity of the trials. A simple rating on a 1-5 scale (where 1 = excellent or desirable and 5 = poor or undesirable) was administered to estimate the quality of field plot execution. Observations were made on overall plot performance, including plant stand, proper bordering of plots, phenotypic expression for one or more traits associated with heat HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 5 stress, type and timing of irrigation applications, presence of diseases and/or insects, weed control and bird or other animal damage. The team visited the field trials of UAS, Raichur on May 19 and B.Gudi in Karnataka on May 20, 2016 and made observations. During the observation visits, the team discussed with the collaborating farmers about their perception and interest towards the HTMA products and the project. On May 21, 2016, the team visited the hybrid demonstration fields maintained by Ajeeet seeds in Aurangabad, Maharastra. The hybrid demonstration plots and other field trials being implemented by Pioneer, Ajeet seeds and Kaveri seeds at Jullandhar, in Punjab were also observed by the evaluation team on May 23, 2016. One of the evaluation team members visited some HTMA implementation sites in Nepal from May 13-15, 2016 including NMRP, Rampur, Nichagad and Dumarwana in Bara and Gaindakot in Nawalparsi. The team member observed field trials being implemented by NMRP, Rampur and collaborating farmers. The Regional Agricultural Research Station (RARS) in Nepalgunj, which is another important HTMA testing site, was visited jointly by the evaluation team member with the HTMA project leader on May 29, 2016. In addition, the team gathered information and data from project documents. The team reviewed HTMA final grant project proposal, Advisory Committee documents, proceedings of HTMA annual review and planning meetings (multiple years), project planning matrix for monitoring and evaluation, work plans and performance monitoring data for all years of the project, project reports (annual and semi-annual reports), project publications (e.g., journal articles, research briefs, fact sheets), and documents prepared and distributed during the training courses of the project. These documents were reviewed and studied prior to site visits in order to obtain comprehensive background information on the project and to identify key knowledge gaps. The information and data gathered were used in identifying strengths and challenges of the project and recommendations were drawn covering the whole range of evaluation questions. Quantitative data collected by the evaluation team during the field visits were tabulated to see frequency of counts of perception of scientists and farmers. This report is organized according to the management structure and by research objective, with the Evaluation Questions (EQ) are answered in context. Responses to each EQ are marked in the text (e.g., EQ 3b). Limitations of the Evaluation The evaluation team was not able to visit all the project countries. Both members of the team visited India where heat stress materials were in the field under the public and private sector trials. Moreover, the coordination office of HTMA is located in India (CIMMYT-India), which helped to assess the project management. Since one of the team members (Dr. Dil Gurung) was from Nepal, trial site visits were made in Nepal to complement the observation in India. Dr. David Beck, the other team member and leader, could not visit Nepal. Neither team member visited Bangladesh, Pakistan or Bhutan. Instead, Dr. Gurung interviewed the Co-PIs of Bhutan and Pakistan on May 27th, 2016 via telephone. The Co-PIs from Bangladesh and Nepal joined the evaluation HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 6 team in Amritsar, Punjab, India and presented the progress and achievement of HTMA in their respective countries. The evaluation team did not quantitatively analyze the interviewee data, but qualitative results are presented. The role of USAID Missions in supporting HTMA objectives (EQ 7b) was not evaluated. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 7 2. PROJECT MANAGEMENT EVALUATION Project Management Findings CIMMYT is the implementing partner and has the overall responsibility for project coordination and implementation, along with alliance partners and relevant stakeholders in the four targeted countries in South Asia (India, Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh). Bhutan joined as a 5th country in 2015. The CIMMYT office located on the International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) campus, Hyderabad, India serves as the hub for project coordination and administration. The CIMMYT local support staff at Hyderabad support the HTMA project including corresponding operational and management costs of the office. The EET found the HTMA project management to be sound, with capable and dedicated leaders, and functioning very well. Over 90% of the interviewees expressed their strong support for project management including their excellent vision and oversight, as well as effective coordination and communication with HTMA partners. (EQ 5a) Project Leader The Project Leader (Fig. 1) coordinates overall activities of the partnership to deliver on project objectives as well as identifies and addresses potential obstacles to project implementation that may impact timely delivery of milestones. Also, the Project Leader serves as the primary project liaison with donors, the Project Management Committee (PMC) and the Project Steering Committee (PSC). The HTMA project leader and overall coordinator is a Senior Scientist in the CIMMYT Asian Regional Maize Program based at ICRISAT. He has a strong background in physiology and breeding and worked with CIMMYT on selection for various abiotic stresses including drought, low nitrogen, waterlogging, and now heat. He is from the Asian region having worked for 10 years with the Indian national agricultural research system (NARS) and almost 9 years for CIMMYT. He received universal praise from 100% of all interviewees for his character and ability including his professional yet collegial interactions, willingness to help, timeliness in responding to needs/problems, effectiveness in directing research efforts, and overall excellent communication. Project Office The Project Office is responsible for the collation, review and submission of technical and financial reports on schedule to USAID. To allow for quality up-to-date assessments of the progress in meeting target milestones, annual review and planning meetings are organized involving representatives of all project partner organizations. These meetings include a participatory review of the previous year's results, development of annual work plans for the coming year, assessment of training needs, annual budget revision, and the PSC meeting to review the overall status of the project operations and to provide necessary guidance and direction, as needed. More than 70% of the interviewees from both the public and private sector expressed the multiple benefits of attending the HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 8 annual meetings, particularly the opportunity presented to interact personally with project partners both within and beyond their countries. FIGURE 1. MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE FOR THE HTMA PROJECT. Graphic courtesy of HTMA. Project Management Clearly, the coordination and management of the diverse group of public and private sector partners in the project requires significant skills. At the initiation of the project, this included 10 organizations with varying degrees of experience, expertise and perspectives. Today, the project has an additional 12 partners including one public Project Leader (PL) & Overall Coordinator (CIMMYT) Project Oversight Director & Chair of PSC (CIMMYT) Project Steering Committee￾PSC (leaders from NARS, PS, USAID, & PL) Project Partners (Universities, Private Sector, NARS) Project Management Committee￾PMC (Principal Investigators & PL) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 9 (NARS-Bhutan) and 11 private sector. The CIMMYT Global Maize Program (GMP) has considerable experience in effectively coordinating several large public-private alliances through projects such as DTMA (Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa); the Affordable, Accessible, Asian Drought Tolerant Maize; and the IMIC-Asia (International Maize Improvement Consortium in Asia), which is a partnership with 28 seed companies in Asia. Project managers and partners face special opportunities and challenges in the design and implementation of the HTMA project. The project is a unique blend of upstream and downstream research where a diverse set of partners from various countries and the public and private sector are involved in the research design and execution of the project. The project benefits from CIMMYT’s experience in other CIMMYT global maize Projects in Asia and Africa. This includes the use of elite germplasm (i.e., drought tolerant, disease resistant) with associated genotypic and phenotypic information from previous projects. The excellent repeatable heat stress phenotyping protocols developed by HTMA are modeled on CIMMYT’s work on drought tolerance. Application of the protocols has led to a significant increase in phenotyping capacity for heat stress tolerance on-station and on-farm in the region. Successful research implementation has been catalyzed by the HTMA project’s training of over 300 individuals in phenotyping for heat stress tolerance and the application of molecular breeding tools. Project Management Committee The Project Steering Committee (PSC) provides the necessary guidance and oversight to the overall project management and coordination. The PSC is chaired by the Director of CIMMYT GMP and the members include leaders (or their representatives) of the NARS of the four partner countries in South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh), one senior representative of the private sector companies, one representative of USAID, and the Project Leader (ex-officio, Secretary). The PSC meets in person, at least once per year during project annual review and planning meetings, and also by web-based interactions, as necessary. The HTMA project oversight director and chair of the PSC committee has the background and skills that serve well in these roles. He is from the Asian region and formerly was an Indian team leader for the Asian Maize Biotechnology Network (AMBIONET). Currently he is CIMMYT’s GMP director where he has served as oversight director for various Asian regional projects. Thus, he has excellent experience managing global projects, a strong background in biotechnology, good familiarity with the maize crop and its environments particularly in Asia, and importantly good working relationships with many of the projects partners. One clear indication of the commitment of the HTMA project oversight director and project leader, especially in light of the projects success in developing competitive heat tolerant hybrids in such a short period of time, is the extent to which they leveraged resources from other projects to in a sense “keep the ball rolling” while the HTMA moved ahead of schedule into the product deployment stage. Table 1 shows a total estimate of almost $380,000 coming from three different project sources. These monies HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 10 were utilized for a range of HTMA project activities including genotyping, socio￾economic studies (including investigating seed costs and farmer demand), product deployment and seed production, plus capacity building. Tracking and assessing project progress against targeted milestones and mitigating concerns or challenges that may arise is the responsibility of the PMC. The PMC includes the Project Leader and Principal Investigators (PIs) from the partner institutions. The PMC meets on a regular basis (bi-monthly WebEx/Skype meeting) to discuss and obtain updates on project activities and bottlenecks, for taking corrective measures, or to submit issues to the PSC for their intervention. Two project monitoring teams, each including at least three PMC members and one PSC member, have been formed during the annual review meetings. These teams make monitoring visits at appropriate times during the maize crop season to review onsite the activities and progress made, followed by submitting a report highlighting lessons learned to the PSC. Project Planning Matrix The project has developed a detailed planning matrix (results framework), which maps how activities and inputs translate into specific milestones/deliverables and outcomes (leading to impacts). This has been an effective tool particularly for the PMC to regularly review attainment of the milestones and outcomes, reasons for any divergence and suggested measures for real-time corrective action. Based on the documentation provided to us and the interviews, the EET believes that the design, representation, and mandate of the PMC and PSC committees are all sound. Unfortunately, our team visit to India did not coincide with the annual review meeting so we cannot report on their work in action. Most interviewees had very positive comments about the project management but few specifically mentioned the work of the PMC or PSC. The project monitoring team idea is simple and novel and appears to have worked well. Finally, the new project website should significantly facilitate communication & coordination between management and project partners. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 11 TABLE 1. FUNDS LEVERAGED FROM OTHER SOURCES FOR HTMA ACTIVITIES. Activity Funds (US$) Source Objective 2: GWAS studies 1. Genotyping of 343 CIMMYT Asia lines in heat tolerant association mapping (HTAM) panel 2. Genotyping of 160 CIMMYT Africa lines in heat tolerant association mapping (HTAM) panel 3. Genotyping of 1200 DH lines derived from 10 heat tolerant x susceptible bi￾parental pedigree populations Objective 4.1: Socio economic studies 4. Cost of household survey and focused group discussion at four sites in two states (Punjab and UP) in India 5. Time for two scientists, one socio￾economist and one crop modelling specialist (10% each, total 20%) for three years Objective 4.2: Product deployment and seed system work 6. Cost of bulk seed production of selected heat tolerant hybrids for MLTS and on-farm demonstrations/strip trials (@ approx. $40,000/year for years 2, 3, and 4) 7. Cost of seed production research for parental lines of selected hybrids (@ approx. $20,000/yr for two years) 8. Staff time (50%) of one nationally recruited scientist for three years (@ approx. $9,000/yr) 9. Staff time (50%) of one field technician for three years (@ approx. $4,000/yr) Objective 5: Capacity building 10. Research cost, admission and tuition fee 12,005 3,710 42,000 52,000 64,500 120,000 40,000 27,000 12,000 6,280 Abiotic Stress Tolerant Maize for Asia (ATMA) project funded by GIZ, Germany Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project co-funded by USAID and Gates foundation CRP-MAIZE Abiotic Stress Tolerant Maize for Asia (ATMA) project funded by GIZ, Germany CRP-MAIZE CRP-MAIZE CRP-MAIZE CRP-MAIZE CRP-MAIZE CRP-MAIZE TOTAL 379,495 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 12 Project Partnerships The HTMA Project Leader describes the quality of collaboration and partnerships in the project as the “Perfect Alliance” (Fig. 2). The observations by the EET and most interviewees confirm strong project partnerships between CIMMYT, universities, public sector NARS, and private companies including both multi-national corporations (MNCs) and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). CIMMYT, with its decades of experience in research and development collaborative activities in the Asian region and global is clearly the leader and key facilitator of the project. Additionally, they are a major supplier of technology, particularly germplasm, phenotyping techniques for abiotic stress tolerance, and training. The EET found excellent collaboration between CIMMYT and US and Indian universities highlighted by the impressive number of graduate students (11) conducting their research with the project. Many of the Asian graduate students expressed their appreciation to CIMMYT for the opportunity to conduct their research on solid scientific themes that have practical importance in the region. Scientists representing private seed companies expressed their gratitude to CIMMYT and HTMA partners for the quality and comprehensive nature of the genotypic and phenotypic data being generated by the project. FIGURE 2. THE “PERFECT ALLIANCE” OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN HTMA. Graphic courtesy of PH Zaidi, CYMMYT The Purdue – CIMMYT – partnership is an excellent example of the quality collaboration that exists in the HTMA project. Purdue professors and graduate students, and the HTMA leadership and partners have developed excellent working relationships. Dr. Tuinstra, PI from Purdue, was involved in the development of the project and has HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 13 traveled to India typically twice per year since project inception to attend annual meetings, interact with project management and partners, and to take data in field trials. He himself stated that “the project is extremely well run and professional” and that CIMMYT-Hyderabad are “great hosts for his students”. He currently has five graduate students and one post-doctoral fellow working on the project many of whom spend 1-2 months/year in India conducting their research and assisting with other aspects of the project. He credits the project leader for much of the HTMA success. The Purdue PI believes that the HTMA PPP is a uniquely functional alliance unlike many of the “clumsy” partnerships he has observed in his career. The EET found that the Purdue PI has provided excellent scientific leadership, a professional work ethic, quality interactions with project personnel, and a healthy enthusiasm for the project’s research activities and results. The EET team also applauds the support given by the Project Leader and his staff to the Purdue team. Major Contributions of Project Partners (EQ 6a) The major partners contribute to the achievement of HTMA objectives in the following ways: CIMMYT - Germplasm – inbred lines for association mapping panel, elite tester lines, synthetics, and hybrids (Obj.1-4) - Field based heat stress phenotyping (Obj.1-4) - Implementation of GWAS (Obj.2) and RCGS scheme (Obj.3) - Coordination of multi-location testing for identifying best-bet products (Obj.4) - Organization of training/capacity building workshops (Obj.5) - Project M&E, coordination, and reporting - Portion of salaries (in-kind) of key scientists and technicians Purdue University - Germplasm – Recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from elite temperate heat tolerant by susceptible lines and ex-Plant Varietal Protection (PVP) temperate lines (Obj.1-4) - Expertise of professors and graduate students to address the dissection of heat stress tolerance in maize to identify genes/quantitative trail loci (QTL), component traits, and associated physiological/molecular mechanisms (Obj.1) - Training/capacity building (Obj.5) - Major financial support to 4 Ph.D. students and 2 professors NARS Institutions in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, & Pakistan - Working with national seed agencies to facilitate the importation of seed and the registration/release of HTMA hybrids (Obj.4) - Phenotyping of association mapping panel (Obj.2) - Participation in GS-based (genomic selection) breeding for deriving elite heat stress tolerant maize synthetics, inbreds, and hybrids (Obj.3) - Multi-location testing for identifying best-bet hybrids, followed by product deployment often in collaboration with private companies (Obj.4) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 14 - Significant in-kind support for field phenotyping of trials and nurseries including part of salaries of scientific and technical staff plus field labor. Pioneer Hi-Bred (MNC), Ajeet and Kaveri Seeds, India (SMEs) - Field-based heat stress phenotyping (Obj.2-4) - Participation in GS-based breeding for deriving elite heat stress tolerant maize synthetics, inbreds, and hybrids (Obj.3) - Multi-location testing for identifying best-bet hybrids, followed by product deployment (Obj.4) - Major additional contribution by Pioneer is the generation and sharing of DH lines (currently over 2,000 with a commitment of 5,000 by completion of project) - Significant in-kind support for field phenotyping of trials and nurseries including part of salaries of scientific and technical staff plus field labor. Interviewees consistently expressed the benefits and effectiveness of the project PPP. Clearly, Pioneer’s generous commitment to produce thousands of DH lines is a major contribution to the project. Two professors from UAS, Raichur, India (who are PI and co￾PI to the project) indicated that their new interactions with the private sector have been very stimulating and that observing the private sectors efficiency and productivity was very motivating. In Bangladesh, it is much easier for Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI, a NARS) to import seed than the private sector companies. BARI has provided excellent support to private companies in Bangladesh to import breeder parental line seed and hybrids for multi-location yield trials. Additionally, BARI has organized numerous training courses which have strengthened the local SMEs in their R&D activities. The NARS in Nepal and Pakistan are working with their National Seed Boards to facilitate the importation of seed and the registration/release of HTMA hybrids in support of local SMEs. Additionally, the NMRP (Nepal) and Maize & Millets Research Program (MMRP, Pakistan) have presented a series of training courses to the benefit of many including private seed companies. Opportunities exist for the projects PPP to further research, capacity building and dissemination goals. In the rapidly expanding field of molecular biology and bioinformatics expect opportunities to arise for project partners to implement new molecular breeding and statistical analysis tools to further research goals. Over 80% of the interviewees highlighted the benefit of the projects training programs while at the same time requesting more particularly in the area of molecular breeding and seed production. The project encountered the following issues (e.g., legal, contractual, managerial, per EQ 6d) in operationalization of the public-private partnerships:  Pioneer was concerned about germplasm sharing clause in the HTMA research collaboration agreement where they were to contribute inbred lines to the HTAM panel for GWAS. Pioneer decided to share only the genotyping data of their lines and not the lines per se. Project addressed this issue by excluding Pioneer lines HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 15 from HTAM panel, and later agreed for use of Pioneer lines only in joint hybrids, i.e. HTMA (CIMMYT) line x Pioneer line crosses.  Vibha Seeds was one of the founder partners in the project with USD 200K/year in￾cash contribution to the project. However, in the early stage of the project the company went into bankruptcy in India and thus ended their partnership under HTMA. The project addressed this issue by opening the project to new private sector partners. Thus, in 2015, 11 seed companies from South Asia joined the project as new partners with significant in-kind contribution, if not in cash (which was acceptable to USAID). USAID Contributions to the HTMA & PPP The support of USAID/BFS toward achieving the HTMA project objectives was considered essential and gratefully acknowledged by the project management team. This contribution includes: - Partial financial support for salaries and allowances of key project scientific and administrative staff - Supplying operational funds for genotyping and phenotyping - Providing financial resources for conducting project annual meetings and training workshops USAID/BFS representative Dr. Nora Lapitan was involved from the start in the development of the HTMA project. Since then, she has been involved in project implementation and monitoring through regular participation in annual meetings, field tours, and serving on the Project Steering Committee. The baton has now been passed to Dr. Hailu Tefera, who recently attended his first HTMA annual meeting in Kathmandu, Nepal. The role of USAID Missions in supporting HTMA objectives was not evaluated. Gender in the HTMA Project The HTMA project both in its design and implementation is giving attention to gender. The major targeted outcome of the project is to develop and deliver heat stress tolerant and high yielding maize cultivars in South Asia where millions of men and women farmers grow maize for subsistence or income. The welfare of women and children in local households in the region is directly dependent on maize yields and negatively affected by abiotic stresses such as heat and drought. The project has made a major effort to involve women smallholder farmers in participatory variety evaluation and on￾farm variety testing/demonstration activities at the many HTMA sites across South Asia. Interviewees from all participating countries commented on the good participation by women in the on-farm variety testing evaluations during field days where women provided valuable feedback in selection of maize hybrids including traits that are particularly important to women such as grain texture and other factors related to post￾harvest processing characteristics (Fig. 10). The project has not been as successful in gender-equitable staffing. Currently, only one woman grad student, based at UAS, Raichur, is working directly on the HTMA project. Several interviewees commented that it is difficult to find trained women scientists who HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 16 are working at project HQ in Hyderabad. Prior to this year all graduate students working on the HTMA project were men. However, we were happy to learn that two women MS graduates are willing to work in the field. Over half of BARI, Bangladesh scientists are women but only one is working on the project. Apparently, women prefer to remain at BARI headquarters rather than work at outlying locations. A recently posted CIMMYT HTMA project position had 16 applicants, but only one was a woman. Women’s participation in training activities has been variable but overall low ranging from 5.7% in Pakistan to 34.3% in Bangladesh. Finally, many of the interviewees stated that the project outputs are largely neutral from a gender perspective. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 17 Project Management Conclusions The project structure, management, and design are on solid ground. The leadership and direction provided by the oversight director and project leader are particularly noteworthy. CIMMYT management and staff have faithfully provided guidance, germplasm, training, and technical support to help project partners and accomplish project objectives. The annual meeting/workshop provides a key opportunity for project management and partners to meet face to face and discuss results, plans, and challenges. (EQ 5a) Coordination and communication among the project partners in the public and private sector (PPP) is unusually good and most HTMA partners have kept or exceeded their commitments to the project. (EQ 5b) Despite the stated intentions of many, and the two women graduate students (out of a total of 14) that joined the project for the first time this year, the participation of women at all levels of the project is low. (EQ 5a) Many opportunities exist to strengthen project partnerships and improve communication particularly for partners based in smaller countries. NARS scientists particularly from Nepal feel overshadowed by their giant neighbor to the east in their participation in the HTMA project. Several interviewees particularly from Nepal expressed the need to improve coordination among partners within countries such as between seed companies, cooperatives, collaborating farmers, and extension agencies. Concerns expressed by interviewees from the smaller project countries such as Nepal and Bhutan were that in some cases the number and/or size of the field trials were difficult for them to handle. At the same time, some of the same partners expressed the need for more locations of relatively large plot on-farm trial/demonstrations to both obtain more information on hybrid performance and allow greater farmer exposure to these materials in farmer’s fields. (EQ 5b) The most recent project training course on seed production and business management, which included major contributions from the private sector on the teaching side, is a good model for future courses. The private sector’s significant investment in this training course, including covering the travel expenses of participants from their companies, was a major benefit. (EQ 5b) Project managers are challenged for time and resources needed to pursue both the upstream research identifying candidate genes for underlying heat tolerant mechanisms and for downstream research deploying superior heat tolerant hybrids, particularly given the unexpectedly high number of top-performing hybrids under heat stress in the first wave, and the addition of 11 private sector partners resulting in the project being thrust into the deployment phase well in advance of the original project plan. (EQ 5c) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 18 Project Management Recommendations  We do not recommend changes in the project management structure, which is functioning very well, except that the growth of private sector partners from 3 to 14 may require increasing the number of senior private sector representatives on the PSC from 1 to 3 (EQ 4a).  Project management has leveraged funds from several sources to help finance the extra deployment work but we recommend that consideration be given to increasing staff and resource allocations. Our first priority for staffing increases would be to provide the project leader, who bears a heavy responsibility for the project in addition to his other duties, with a scientist assistant. (EQ 5a)  Project management needs to strengthen coordination with and participation among partners particularly the smaller project country NARS outside of India. We recommend that the project management give this high priority and implement more joint monitoring of on-going activities in these regions, exchange visits of researchers and technical staff, and provide further training opportunities for partners in the smaller project countries. Allocating a scientist/assistant to work with the project leader would also allow this team to increase communication and visits to these countries. (EQs 5b, 6c)  Despite the stated intentions of many, the participation of women at all levels of the project (including management, scientists, graduate students, and participants in training programs) is low. The gender imbalance remains and needs to be addressed immediately. (EQ 6c)  Based on partners with differing cultures and mandates (both because of country/region and/or public/private sector) the project has the ongoing challenge to build further trust and understanding among its diverse collaborators. We recommend that project leaders need to continually look for complementarities and ways to further strengthen communication and relationships among public-private sector scientists/leaders. Unity is very hard to build but easy to rupture. It is also important that all partners bring something significant to the table to contribute to the project. We also encourage partners to have a greater willingness to share information and technology, particularly the private sector in the area of seed production research and product deployment. (EQ 6b)  Interaction between BFS and the HTMA can be maintained by continuing regular attendance at the annual meeting, site visits, maintaining close communication and looking together for ways and resources to better achieve project objectives. (EQ 7a)  Future external reviews could be improved by the following suggestions (EQ 8c): - Schedule the evaluation earlier in the project phase - Consider having 3 rather than only 2 external evaluation team members - Provide review team more time to visit additional project countries HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 19 - Allow at least one reviewer the opportunity to attend the project annual meeting HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 20 Project Management Lessons Learned In an introductory presentation of the HTMA project, the project leader showed a slide entitled “the perfect alliance” referring to the complementarity and quality of collaboration among the public and private sector participants in the project (Fig. 2). This lesson learned about the importance of the PPP was stated in the following insightful way by an interviewee from the public sector: “Overall an excellent complementary approach that works best with SME. We have realized many benefits from the PPP in terms of exchange of knowledge, ideas, strategies for product development, marketing of the product, etc. Strengths of the public institutions includes: trained manpower to conduct research, capacity building of students and visibility of the work through publications in standard research journals. However, once we develop a hybrid it is very difficult for us to disseminate the hybrid through the seed chain over large areas. In contrast the strength of the private sector institutions is in scaling up released hybrids through efficient seed production, branding, marketing and their wide network of seed system specialists. Interactions are more difficult with large companies with extensive R&D who often have more reservations and restrictions on collaboration.” One of the major challenges for the HTMA project is the breadth of its objectives which span from upstream research identifying candidate genes for underlying heat tolerant mechanisms to downstream research of deploying superior heat tolerant hybrids. Achieving these research goals require major investments of resources and time. The remarkable progress made by the project, now in its fifth and final year, is a testament to the dedication and hard work of management, scientists, and staff. As the key targeted fruits of the project (i.e. candidate genes and superior lines and hybrids) are just beginning to be identified, we highly recommend that the project be extended to a second phase. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 21 3. RESEARCH PROJECT EVALUATION Research under HTMA focuses on the five interrelated objectives (Fig. 3): 1. Dissect the expression of heat stress tolerance of maize to identify genes, component traits, and mechanisms that predict adaptation to stressful environments in South Asia. 2. Identify and validate favorable genes/haplotypes controlling adaptation of maize to heat stress in the tropical environments of South Asia. 3. Implement rapid-cycle genomic selection for generating open-source multi￾parental synthetic populations and for further deriving doubled haploid (DH) lines with resilience to heat stress. 4. Deploy heat stress resilient elite maize cultivars in the target agro-ecologies of South Asia through a regional alliance of public and private sector partners. 5. Strengthen capacity of alliance partners, including South Asian maize breeding and local seed companies, to sustainably serve climate change-vulnerable maize production systems in the tropics. For each objective, evaluation findings, conclusions, recommendations, and lessons learned are presented below. EQs 1 and 3 are addressed with high specificity in the “Findings” section under each Objective. Interpretations and judgments (EQ 2) based on these findings are in “Conclusions,” and proposed activities for HTMA management based on these conclusions are in “Recommendations.” Implications for design changes for this or similar projects (EQ 4) are in “Lessons Learned” sections. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 22 FIGURE 3. FLOW DIAGRAM OF HTMA OBJECTIVES, ACTIVITIES, PATHWAYS, PRODUCTS, AND IMPACT Graphic courtesy of HTMA Application of molecular breeding tools Multi-location trials Precision phenotyping under heat stress Double haploid production Products - Early generation line bulks, elite lines, synthetics, and hybrids Further breeding Seed Production Demonstration and Promotion - On-Farm Trials, Field Days Farmer adoption of heat tolerant maize Identify and validate favorable genes/haplotypes for heat tolerance Dissect expression of heat tolerance (genes, component traits, mechanisms) Maize Germplasm Obj. 1 Obj. 2 Obj. 2 & 3 Obj. 4 Obj. 4 Obj. 4 Obj. 5 Training in precision phenotyping, molecular breeding & seed production Obj. 3 & 4 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 23 Objective 1 Dissect the expression of heat stress tolerance to identify component traits, genes, and genetic loci that predict or confer adaptation to stressful environments in South Asia. Very little is known about the biochemical and physiological mechanisms that contribute to the expression of field heat tolerance in maize and other crops. However, one key cellular response to heat stress is associated with changes in membrane fluidity (Sung et al., 2003). Several studies at Purdue University have shown genetic variation in maize for membrane lipid composition and heat tolerance. A team from Purdue University, led by Dr. Mitch Tuinstra, are key project partners who have taken the lead addressing Objective 1. Findings  In a major project study tissue samples from the HTAM panel (described in greater detail under Objective 2) were collected from replicated heat stress and optimal condition trials, lipid sample extracted, and submitted for lipidome analyses at the Kansas Lipidomics Center at Kansas State University. Data received on lipid profile (saturated and unsaturated lipids) and statistical analyses of lipidomics dataset were completed, indicating that lipid profiles are heritable. A total of 236 molecules were identified from each inbred, of these the most significant 112 were selected for further analysis.  DGDG (digalactosyldiacylglycerol) lipids are known for their involvement in thermal tolerance in plants. The galactolipid unsaturation ratio (DGDG ratio) is the ratio of 36:6 (36 carbons: 6 unsaturations) molecules to 36:5 (36 carbons: 5 unsaturations) molecules. As the saturations increases under heat stress, the number of the 36:5 molecules will increase leading to a reduction in the galactolipid unsaturation ratio. Correlation analysis was carried-out between grain yield of HTAM panel test testcrosses under optimum temperature and heat stress, with different galactolipid molecules produced by the inbreds under heat stress. Under heat stress, the yield of the testcrosses shows a significant negative correlation (-0.39) with the DGDG unsaturation ratio, as opposed to yield under optimal conditions (-0.19 correlation), suggesting that yield under heat stress correlates with an increase in the saturation levels of DGDG lipids. Thus the hypothesis was proposed that greater saturation of membranes at high temperatures contributes to improved stability.  GWAS for lipidome profiles identified numerous peaks for lipid saturation data. A candidate gene analyses for GWAS peaks indicated a number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and QTLs showing a significant association (Fig. 4). Candidate genes were identified for many of these loci (e.g. structural genes involved in lipid metabolism such as fatty acid desaturases and head group HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 24 modification). Transposon knockouts of FAD8 candidate genes have been identified. These two loci were not only detected by association mapping in the HTAM but independently by linkage analyses in bi-parental populations (Fig. 4, blue arrows). Preliminary results indicate these transposon mutants have lipid saturation phenotypes and on-going field studies in Asia suggest changes in heat stress tolerance. FIGURE 4. MANHATTAN PLOT SHOWING GENETIC BASIS FOR LEAF LIPID METABOLISM IN MAIZE The plot shows marker associations for lipid unsaturation index (DGDG 36:6/36:5) in maize leaves collected in managed stress field trials in Hyderabad India in 2014. Vertical green bars indicate candidate genes associated with leaf lipid metabolism in maize. Horizontal purple bars show the positions of QTL peaks detected for lipid unsaturation index measured in bi-parental populations of the Nested Association Mapping Panel of maize. Red arrows show marker associations detected by QTL and GWAS analyses that coincide with candidate genes. Green arrows show marker associations detected by GWAS associations that are coincident with known candidate genes for this trait. Graphic courtesy of HTMA. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 25  Populations for QTL mapping were formed to validate results of linkage analysis for heat-stress tolerance by GWAS. Backcross populations were developed using three heat stress tolerant tropical maize inbreds as donors and B73 as the recurrent susceptible parent. Additionally, RILs were formed based on the heat susceptible by tolerant lines (B73 x Mo17), (B73 x B97) and (B73 x CML322). Lines from these populations evaluated under heat stress in Hyderabad, India in one or two years showed significant variation for heat stress tolerance. QTL analysis for heat stress tolerance traits and profiles of the maize lipidome indicate several significant genomic regions associated with heat stress tolerant phenotypes. Several of these regions were also detected in the GWAS panel.  A second major experiment looked at RNA-sequence data to examine global gene expression patterns of heat-tolerant and susceptible lines under optimal and high￾temperature conditions to identify differentially regulated genes. Five lines with contrasting patterns of heat stress tolerance or susceptibility (Fig. 5) were planted in a growth chamber study to characterize gene expression patterns under optimal and several heat stress treatments. Bioinformatic analysis of RNAseq data showed significant variation in gene expression at each temperature treatment and among genotypes (Fig. 5) Quantitative PCR was used to validate the RNAseq studies and a replicated field trial under heat stress used to confirm heat stress response. Based on these results, the project proposed a first hypothesis on the gene networks that confer tolerance to heat stress in maize, and identified potential candidate genes. Work is ongoing to validate these genes using transposon knockouts. Field trials in Asia this year suggest that several of the knockout mutants show sensitivity to high temperature stress.  The project is using transposon tagged mutations for functional characterization of candidate genes for heat tolerance. Genes of interest include those associated with abiotic stress tolerance in the literature plus those discovered in the HTMA project. Growth chamber and field studies of 10 genes known to play a role in abiotic stress tolerance showed no clear heat stress phenotypes. New transposon tagged mutants of maize are now being developed for additional candidate genes identified by GWAS, linkage analysis, and RNAseq profiles. QTL and GWAS candidates include: Ch1FAD8-B, Ch1FAD8-C, Ch9FAD7-A. RNAseq candidates include: BAG, beta￾galactoidase, CLB2, Fes1A-Fes1C, HSP26, MYB4, PLC6, PLC-like.  As maize has two (duplicate) Co-PIs of many genes, validation by knockout with transposons has been difficult. To address this problem, project scientists are also knocking out candidate genes in sorghum because it has less genome duplication. They are looking at knockouts of several candidate genes in sorghum including the FAD7 and FAD8 genes which are prime candidate genes previously identified by the project in maize. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 26 FIGURE 5. RNA EXPRESSION OF MAIZE LEAVES EXPOSED TO OPTIMAL HEAT AND STRESSED CONDITIONS Graphic courtesy of M. Tuinstra, Purdue University Conclusions The research work lead by Dr. Tuinstra and colleagues on the project has made a major contribution to the basic science of heat tolerance in maize. They have shown that heat and drought tolerance are not the same and that the lipid composition in the cellular membranes (particularly the chloroplasts) are critical to the stability of maize under heat stress. They have used state of the art technologies such as lipidome analysis, RNA sequence profiling, and transposon tagged mutations to search for the biochemical and genetic mechanisms responsible for heat tolerance. They have applied GWAS, QTL mapping, and linkage analysis to identify candidate genes for heat tolerance. Recommendations  As quick as is practically possible, we recommend that the various on-going studies should be completed, particularly those focusing on identifying candidate genes, and HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 27 published in referred journals. Research manuscripts currently in the draft stage include: “Genetic architecture of the leaf lipidome in nested association mapping populations of maize” Ryan Gibson, Rajdeep Khangura, Mitch Tuinstra, and Guri Jopal “Maize tolerance to heat stress is modulated by differential transcriptional response” Nicola Carraro, Rajdeep Khangura, Ross Zhan, Mitch Tuinstra, and Guri Jopal “Galactolipid saturation and remodeling associated with field-based high temperature tolerance in maize” Ryan Gibson et al. 2017  We recommend that the project consider further sampling the 300+ ex-PVP lines that the Purdue PI currently has in his Purdue nursery (only 23 have been used to date in the project) as sources of earliness, yield potential, and heat and drought tolerance. Many of these lines are also available crossed to African drought tolerant subtropical lines. Lessons Learned The precision phenotyping protocol for maize under heat stress developed by the project requires extensive labor in the field over multiple locations to measure a series of traits at particular points in time. However, the maize growth cycle is long and important changes in plants under heat stress may occur even over the course of a given day (Fig. 6).  New phenotype methods (phenomics) look at more traits over a greater number of plant development stages but require less field labor (Fig. 7Figure 7; “Strategic study” 2014; White et al. 2012; Furbank and Tester 2011). These techniques involve the use of special sensors mounted on tractors, drones, or other devices (Fig. 8).  The use of phenomics approaches should be explored to capture key responses without inordinate expenditures of time and labor. Project collaborator Dr. Tuinstra is currently conducting research in this area at Purdue and would be an excellent resource to explore the applicability to HTMA. (EQ 8b)  With the added work on Phenomics and associated crop modeling and statistical analysis, we recommend that the project hire a Bio-statistical/phenomics/modeling expert (at 1.0 FTE). (EQ 8b) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 28 FIGURE 6. THERMAL VARIABILITY OF A CORN FIELD OVER THE COURSE OF A DAY Thermal images acquired over the corn field at 0.4-m pixel resolution showing the Tc – T changes at four different times of the day. The greatest thermal variability between corn variety plots is obtained at midday, continuing during the afternoon. Image courtesy of J.A. Berni, 2009. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 29 Image courtesy of J.W. White, 2012 FIGURE 7. DIAGRAM OF POSSIBLE DATA FLOWS OVER THE LIFE CYCLE OF AN ANNUAL SEED CROP HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 30 FIGURE 8. EXAMPLE OF SENSORS MOUNTED ON A HIGH-CLEARANCE TRACTOR High clearance tractor in operation over young cotton plants at Maricopa, AZ. Replicated sets of sensors allow simultaneous measurement of canopy height, temperature, and spectral reflectance at three bandwidths. Image courtesy of J.N. Cobb, 2014. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 31 Objective 2 Identify and validate favorable genes/haplotypes controlling adaptation of maize to heat stress in the tropical environments of South Asia. Our use of the term haplotypes refers to a group of genes within an organism that was inherited together from a single parent. The word "haplotype" is derived from the word "haploid," which describes cells with only one set of chromosomes, and from the word "genotype," which refers to the genetic makeup of an organism. GWAS, in which more than a million SNPs may be assayed in hundreds of individuals, represents a powerful new tool for investigating the genetic architecture of complex traits. Findings  GWAS, based on high-density genotyping (genotyping-by-sequencing; GBS) was used to identify important genomic regions conditioning heat tolerance. The HTMA project is both validating and introgressing favorable alleles/haplotypes identified by GWAS, in elite South Asia-adapted tropical maize germplasm.  A new association mapping panel (HTAM) was formed consisting of 534 total inbred lines sourced from: a) Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa - association mapping (DTMA-AM) panel – 106 lines, b) CIMMYT-Asia-Association Mapping (CAAM) panel, including lines with heat tolerance and susceptibility. – 343 lines, c) Maize and Millet Research Institute (MMRI), Sahiwal, Pakistan (52 lines), d) Elite parental lines (ex-PVP) representing well-defined heterotic patterns for temperate environments of the US (provided by the Purdue University) – 23 lines, and e) Lines from Kaveri Seeds, India – 10 lines.  Prior to the start of the HTMA project, the DTMA-AM panel were extensively phenotyped under drought stress in Latin-America, Africa and Asia. Similarly, the CAAM panel, was characterized for drought, heat and optimal conditions in multiple locations in South Asia. Both DTMA-AM and CAAM panels have been extensively genotyped with 1536 (Illumina-Golden Gate), 55K (Illumina-Infinium) and GBS (around 700K SNPs) marker systems, thereby enabling greater depth for GWAS studies.  The HTMA panel was crossed to elite Asia adapted tester lines representing the A and B heterotic groups and evaluated over two seasons in 9 locations under both heat stress and optimal conditions. Grain yield, tassel blasting, tassel sterility, leaf firing, and anthesis silking interval (ASI) were the main phenotypic traits of interest. The entire HTMA panel was genotyped with GBS at Cornell University resulting in 900K SNPs per sample. The complete HTMA panel genotypes and test-cross phenotypes were then used for GWAS analysis.  Nine significant haplotype blocks were found to be associated with grain yield under heat stress across 10 locations and two testers. These blocks explained from 4 to 12% of the phenotypic variation individually while effect size varied up to 440 kg/ha. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 32 For ASI under heat, a total of 10 haplotype blocks were significantly associated across both testers although few were found in the same chromosome bin as those for yield.  Ten haplotypes identified in GWAS are being validated in different independent association mapping panels or bi-parental populations. The haplotypes were carefully selected for their stability across various phenotyping locations, and testers. Among them are tester dependent and independent effects that were identified and being used accordingly. The haplotypes are being targeted in introgressions into CML451, CL02450 and CML472 backgrounds with multiple heat, drought, and heat+drought tolerant donors. The first set of 1,023 DH lines with introgressed genomic regions will also establish the significance of these haplotypes in the specific tester backgrounds to which they have been introgressed.  Additionally, nine bi-parental DH populations from heat susceptible by tolerant lines are currently being phenotyped along with a subset of TCs to validate 25 putative genomic heat tolerant regions based on GWAS.  In comparisons with the DTMA panel, four genomic regions were found in common with the HTMA panel for grain yield, and 3 regions for ASI. One important gene identified in the DTMA and HTMA panel for yield and independently in a CML highland panel is acc1 (acetyl coA carboxylase) whose function is to provide the malonyl-CoA substrate for fatty acid biosynthesis.  Methylated DNA Immunoprecipitation Sequencing (MeDIP-Seq) is a method to study whole genome DNA. It can compare DNA methylation modification patterns between samples that are subjected to differential treatments including different reactions to abiotic stress. DNA methylation is known to play an important role in gene regulation and transposable element silencing. Gene element methylation is associated with reduced or silenced transcription whereas gene body methylation more commonly correlates with transcriptionally active genes. As part of the exploratory genotyping methodologies that could aid in a better understanding and application of heat stress tolerance, the project conducted MeDIP-Seq on a set of contrasting heat reaction lines from the HTAM panel. DNA samples from 5 heat tolerant and 5 susceptible lines along with two bulks (one tolerant and susceptible) were sent to BGI for MeDIP-Seq analysis. Results showed that heat tolerant samples had reduced CpG element methylation and increased gene body methylation. The impact of this marked difference as it relates to heat tolerance mechanisms is being pursued by the project. Conclusions Identifying candidate genes for heat stress tolerance in maize hybrids is a challenging task for many reasons including the complexity of the plant, complexity of the abiotic stress, diversity in the testing environments, and genetic/environment (G x E) interactions. We congratulate the project team for their outstanding work to identify and begin validating genes/haplotypes for heat tolerance in maize. Using precision HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 33 phenotyping in multiple environments under heat stress and optimal conditions, followed by the application of appropriate bio-statistical tools, the project has made significant progress both identifying heat stress tolerant germplasm and understanding the genetic basis for the tolerance response. The GWAS analysis of the HTAM panel was a high quality major effort to identify potential candidate genes which are being validated in different independent association mapping panels and bi-parental populations. The projects application of methylation profiling in maize heat stress tolerance research is the first of its kind with results which may have great significance. Recommendations  It is critical that the project scientists pull together the results of studies to clearly validate and confirm the most significant candidate genes for heat tolerance. In this context we commend the project team for recently developing a catalog in Excel format with genotypic and phenotypic information as it relates to heat tolerance of CIMMYT and project partner germplasm, and recommend that it be kept up to date with ongoing work.  A new Java tool to aid genomic selection has been developed and should prove useful. These data tools need to be made available to project partners as quickly as possible.  We recommend investigating the IBP (International Breeding Platform) Breeding Management System developed by the Generation Challenge Program which has many useful functions that may benefit the HTMA project.  Inbred lines are available through the USDA-ARS Germplasm Enhancement of Maize (GEM) project based at Ames, IA with a second research station in Raleigh, North Carolina. Publically available elite lines developed by this project typically have between 50 and 75% temperate and 25 to 50% tropical germplasm. Since its inception, the GEM program has released 286 lines. Lines particularly those developed at the hot and humid research station in North Carolina, should have valuable alleles for heat tolerance.  Expand evaluation of ex-PVP lines. To date the project has looked at 23 ex-PVP lines. Dr. Tuinstra now has over 300 ex-PVP lines in his nursery, with some being crossed to African drought tolerant lines. The main value of this material is earliness and heterosis for yield. A weakness is that temperate materials such as these often have above average susceptibility to diseases.  Consider use of lines available from EMBRABA (Brazil) and Kasetsart University and the NARS in Thailand. Lessons Learned Quoting from the Annual Progress Report (1 October, 2014 to 30 September, 2015): HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 34 “GWAS analyses are ongoing exercises as this involves integrating and revising updated multi-location evaluations continuously from the breeding program. The G x E effects are generally pronounced for yield related traits and hence multiple iterations of GWAS analyses need to be carried out to account for such effects. Besides locations, testers exert considerable influence on yield related traits and need to be accounted as well. Hence in our analyses, we have identified genomic regions that are effective across each tester and cluster of locations for further validation in independent panels/biparental populations. Wherever possible, we have identified genomic regions that may work across locations as well as different testers by lowering P-value thresholds.” HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 35 Objective 3 Implement rapid-cycle genomic selection (RCGS) for generating open-source multi-parental synthetic populations and for further deriving double haploid (DH) lines with resilience to heat stress. Recurrent selection (RS) procedures have been very effective in maize breeding to develop improved source populations with increased desirable allele frequencies particularly for complex, polygenic traits such as drought and heat tolerance. However, these methods are time consuming and resource-demanding as they involve several steps including progeny formation, progeny testing often in multiple environments, selection, and intermating of superior families. Genomic selection (GS) exploits high density marker information to predict the total genetic value of an individual based on a model set of training individuals that are genotyped and phenotyped at representative locations. RCGS is a procedure designed to incorporate GS into RS procedures reducing the need to phenotype each set of intermated progenies. RCGS serves to significantly save resources (particularly field and labor costs) as it involves only one season of phenotyping at representative locations. In subsequent generations, intermated individuals are only genotyped and their genetic value predicted based on previously estimated marker effects. The resulting improved populations can be used directly as synthetics (OPVs) or as source populations for the derivation of inbred lines using conventional or DH technology. Findings The project has formed only 6 multi-parent synthetic (MPS) populations (Table 2) using the schematic flow presented in Fig. 9. For MPS-1 and MPS-2, over 400 test-cross progenies per synthetic of F2:3 families were phenotyped in target environments with project partners under optimal (3 locations) and natural heat stress (8 locations). The top 5% of the progenies based on across location performance (both optimal and heat stress) were selected from each synthetic and intermated to form cycle 1. For MPS-3 and MPS-4, over 600 F2:3 families were derived from each population and crossed with two early maturity testers from the opposite heterotic group (CML-470 and CML-474). Testcrosses were evaluated during Spring-2015 under 4 optimal and 7 heat stress locations. The top 5% of the progenies based on across location performance were selected from each population and intermated to form cycle 1. Unique to MPS-5 and MPS-6 is that F2:3 families’ per se performance were evaluated under natural heat stress in only 2 locations during Spring-2015 and the top 10% of progenies across locations selected for intermating to form cycle 1. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 36 TABLE 2. DESCRIPTION OF MULTI-PARENT SYNTHETIC POPULATIONS FORMED Syntheti c Heterotic Group Source Lines (#) Progeny Evaluated Environments Type Number Optimal Conditions Heat Stress MPS-1 A 10 TC 406 3 8 MPS-2 B 10 TC 470 3 8 MPS-3 A 11 TC 600 4 7 MPS-4 B 12 TC 600 4 7 MPS-5 A 8 F2:3 300 - 2 MPS-6 B 8 F2:3 300 - 2  Grain yield performance data for the MPS synthetics is shown in Table 3. The mean grain yields for MPS-1 and MPS-2 testcrosses were 4.85 and 4.40 t/ha under heat stress and 6.15 and 5.0 ton/ha under optimal conditions, respectively. Yield of the selected fraction (5%) were 18.1 and 22.7% above the trial mean under heat stress and 2.6 and 0.2% above the trial mean under optimal conditions. For MPS-3 and MPS-4 testcrosses, mean grain yields were 4.5 and 3.9 t/ha under heat stress and 7.7 and 6.0 t/ ha under optimal conditions. The percent gain over trial mean of the selected fraction was 18.9 and 18.2 % under heat stress and 2.28 and 3.1 % under optimal temperature conditions. For F2:3 families from MPS-5 and MPS-6, grain yield was 2.30 and 0.89 t/ha under heat stress in two environments. Mean yields of the selected fraction (top 5%) under heat stress was 3.82 and 1.73 t/ha for MPS-5 and MPS-6, respectively. The percent gain over trial mean of the selected fraction was 65.9 and 73.6% under heat stress condition for MPS-5 and MPS-6, respectively. Further testing is needed but yield potential looks promising under heat stress but less so under optimal conditions for most of the MPS.  With MPS-1, 2, 3 & 4 the percent gain in grain yield of the selected fraction over the trial mean of test-crossed families under heat stressed conditions averaged about 20%. However, with the F2:3 families from MPS-5 and MPS-6 the grain yield of the selected fraction outperformed the population mean by close to 70%. This is not surprising based on the known environmental sensitivity of inbred lines and the likely masking effect of this by the testers and resulting heterosis in testcross progenies. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 37 FIGURE 9. SCHEMATIC FLOW OF RAPID-CYCLE GENOMIC SELECTION (RCGS) RCGS is used for fast-track development and delivery of improved source populations with heat stress tolerance. In HTMA, Year 1 = 2013, Year 2 = 2014, Year 3 = 2015, Year 4 = 2016, and Year 5 = 2017. Image courtesy of HTMA/CIMMYT Grant Proposal. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 38 TABLE 3. FIELD PERFORMANCE OF MULTI-PARENT SYNTHETICS (MPS) AND TOP PROGENIES Synthetics Grain yield of MPS under heat stress and optimal conditions (t/ha) Grain yield of selected fraction (top 5%) of progenies (t/ha) Percent gain of selected fraction (5%) progenies over trial mean Heat stress Optimal Heat stress Optimal Heat stress Optimal MPS-1 (HG-A) 4.85 6.15 5.73 6.31 18.1 2.6 MPS-2 (HG-B) 4.40 5.00 5.40 5.80 22.7 0.2 MPS-3 (HG-A) 4.50 7.70 5.30 7.80 18.9 2.2 MPS-4 (HG-B) 3.90 6.00 4.80 6.20 18.2 3.1 MPS-5 (HG-A) 2.30 NA 3.82 NA 65.9 NA MPS-6 (HG-B) 0.89 NA 1.73 NA 73.6 NA  Two rounds of rapid cycling have been completed with genotyped based selection of plant types for heat stress tolerance in MPS-1 and MPS-2. For each cycle generation, approximately 1,000 plants from each of the population bulks were maintained, and genotyped with a selected set of 96 polymorphic SNPs with highest marker effects spanning across the genome. The breeding value of each plant was estimated and approximately 5% or 50 plants with the highest genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) selected for intermating and formation of the next cycle.  A total of 365 F2:3 families from MPS-3, 4, 5, and 6 were selected based on the field evaluations previously described and genotyped using KASP assays. A polymorphism analysis of the parental lines used to form the synthetics was conducted using 1250 SNP assays. SNPs from each synthetic with good call rates and minor allele frequency of >0.25 were selected for genotyping of the F2:3 families. As the appropriate number of markers and families to be included in the estimation set to make GS successful is not yet worked out for multi-parent synthetics, the project has wisely delayed rapid cycle advancement in MPS-3, 4, 5, and 6 pending the outcome of improvement obtained in MPS-1 and MPS-2. Bulks of C1-C3 of MPS-1 and MPS-2 have recently been submitted for DH induction. Conclusions The project formed 6 MPS populations and utilized RCGS in their improvement. We support the use of the RCGS scheme for rapid cycle genetic improvement in synthetic populations plus the formation of early generation and DH lines derived from them. The project team distributed bulk seed of F2:3 families selected by partners on the basis of test cross performance at their target environment. Seven project partners from three countries in both the public and private sector received anywhere from 34 to 117 bulks HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 39 which should be an excellent source of breeding material to develop heat stress tolerant inbreds. Although savings in time and field resources compared to conventional RS procedures were evident, important validation of the RCGS approach is pending field testing of the synthetics, their improved cycles, and eventually the double haploid lines derived from them. A decision on whether it is more efficient to select F2:3 families per se or their testcrosses can be made when performance data are available for all six synthetics and their improved cycles. The biggest challenge encountered by the project implementing the RCGS approach is that plant sampling, DNA extraction, analysis, and selection must be completed before flowering. This requires very close coordination with the laboratory, international shipping agencies, and the Indian authorities. The project has successfully managed this to date including implementing a fast track approach tool to facilitate the process. Many of the project partners interviewed were not aware of the research with RCGS. This could be due to the limited amount of field trials with these materials and/or lack of interest in synthetics as compared to hybrids. With the exception of interviewees from Nepal and Bhutan, most project partners indicated that farmer demand in their regions was largely for hybrids. Recommendations  This is the only objective where the HTMA has fallen short of the declared milestones. Only six synthetics formed plus most delayed in their development. The project selected between 8 and 12 lines from the same heterotic group but diverse sources to form the six MPS. Only in MPS-1, 4 of the 10 parental materials used were sister lines which can promote inbreeding depression and lower yield which should be avoided. Synthetic formation by heterotic group is ideal for inbred line development but not necessarily for synthetic per se performance. Synthetics containing lines from both heterotic groups A & B would be expected to outperform those from Groups A or B alone. However, with the high demand for hybrids in the region the EET supports the project’s work to form synthetics based on heterotic groups.  To date the HTMA project has produced and tested thousands of largely yellow￾grained hybrids; in contrast only six synthetics (mostly white and yellow bi-color) have been developed. The synthetics serve a dual purpose as both a source of genetic variability for the development of inbred lines (whether conventional or DH) and per se as OPVs. In principal, as data are not yet available, we support the projects work on developing and improving synthetics using RCGS as source germplasm for the derivation of inbred lines. However, the project needs to determine what priority it will give to the formation, improvement, and testing of synthetics as OPVs. The results from our interviews show that demand for OPVs varies depending on the project partner and country. Most (public sector) partners from the smaller project countries tended to request the development and testing of HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 40 synthetic whereas those from India preferred hybrids. Assuming the project decides to prioritize synthetics as OPVs a more aggressive approach is needed to form and test more synthetics. In EET interviews researchers and students from all countries except India indicated that demand for synthetics could be significant if their yield was competitive with commercial hybrids. We recommend that yield trial evaluations be conducted to compare project synthetics and hybrids under a range of conditions from high heat stress to optimal conditions.  The project needs to validate the effectiveness of RCGS for population (synthetic) improvement. We recommend that field evaluations of MPS-1 and MPS-2 C0, C1, C2, and C3 be conducted under heat and optimal conditions to obtain an initial evaluation of the effectiveness of the RCGS approach for heat stress tolerant improvement in maize. Similarly, evaluations of genetic gains in MPS-3, 4, 5, & 6 should be completed just as soon as improved cycles are available.  Pioneer Hi-Bred has been most generous providing over 2,000 DH lines with a commitment to supply a total of 5,000 by the end of the project. However, the project would be wise to pursue a regional public source of inbred lines in addition to the facility in CIMMYT, Mexico. We fully support the current proposal presented to the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) to develop a DH facility in India to serve the Asian region. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 41 Objective 4 Initiate deployment of heat stress resilient elite maize hybrids in the target agro￾ecologies of South Asia through a regional alliance of public and private sector partners. Findings  Thousands of experimental materials generated by CIMMYT were evaluated both on-station and on-farm in a four-year period at 237 locations under optimal conditions and 63 locations under heat stress environments in South Asia. Materials were tested in a series of evaluations during the experimentation phase. About 1,500 to 2,000 hybrids are evaluated in Stage-I at 5 locations. These hybrids were developed using 500 lines of diverse genetic background received from the HTAM panel. These lines were crossed with two testers, and evaluated extensively in years 1 & 2 across temperature/vapor pressurized deficit (VPD) regimes. While the data served for the GWAS study, the lines with high GCA under heat stress were used in developing new experimental hybrid combinations. As far as the upstream objectives are concerned, the first set of hybrids will be available for testing in spring 2017.  To generate consistent and accurate phenotypic data, the project has developed a new protocol for precision phenotyping for heat stress tolerance in maize to help ensure that are collected by project partners. This information has been disseminated to researchers and technicians through an attractive and practical field manual entitled “Phenotyping for abiotic stress tolerance in maize – Heat stress” published by CIMMYT and by conducting several training workshops on this theme.  The testing system for evaluating HTMA hybrids includes various trial stages (I to V). Stages I-III are compulsory to follow by all partners, whereas from Stage-III onwards more flexibility is permitted. Partners can implement the process as per their own agro-ecological conditions. The experimental data required for a variety release or registration from National Seed Board or Variety Release Committee may be different from one country to another in South Asia. In Nepal, the National Seed Board is responsible for variety release of crops, and at least two years of data from Coordinated Varietal Trial (CVT) plus two years of Farmers' Field Trial (FFT) are required. With the HTMA project evaluation, Stage-III may substitute for CVT and MLT as FFTs.  Hybrids which are significantly superior to Pioneer 31Y45, a popular commercial check in the region, are “jumped up” to Stage-IV or Stage-V Multi-Location Testing (MLT) trials, while others which are equal or better than the best checks across locations are selected and advanced to Stage-II trials. The best commercial checks used in the trials were P31Y45, P30V92, DKC9108, 900M Gold and 30V92.  In Stage-II, about 150 to 200 promising hybrids from Stage-I are evaluated in the South Asia region at 10-15 locations and best performing hybrids are advanced. At Stage-III, 15-20 hybrids are evaluated both in on-station and on-farmer's field trials HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 42 at 20 to 25 locations. Selections of demonstrated hybrids in field trials are also done by farmers and stakeholders by organizing multiple field days by project partners. Generally, 20 -25 hybrids including checks are included at this stage of evaluation. All partners have strictly followed HTMA protocol in Stages-1 to III as these steps are mandatory. An example of the spring 2016 season with stage of testing, trial descriptions and number of entries are shown in Table 4. TABLE 4. HTMA HYBRIDS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF TESTING IN 2016 Code Description Number of entries Reps Rows/ plot Stage-I Hybrids 1 DEIIYW Early maturing yellow and white hybrids Design-II 45 2 2 2 DEWH Early maturing white hybrids - Diallel 15 2 1 3 DEYH Early maturing yellow hybrids - Diallel 90 2 1 4 DMIIYW Medium maturing yellow and white hybrids - Design-II 75 2 2 5 DMWH Medium maturing white hybrids - Diallel 20 2 1 6 DMYH Medium maturing yellow hybrids - Diallel 165 2 1 7 TTI Temperate x tropical crosses 40 2 1 8 TWH Three way cross hybrids 55 2 1 9 DHTC DHTC with CML474 (HG-A) (3 trials) 370 2 1 10 DHTC DHTC with CML470 (HG-B) (4 trials) 385 2 1 Total crosses 1260 Stage-II Hybrids 1 AHSII-1 Evaluation of stage 2 hybrids (Set 1) 55 2 2 2 AHSII-2 Evaluation of stage 2 hybrids (Set 2) 35 2 2 3 AHSII-3 Evaluation of stage 2 hybrids (Set 3) 20 2 2 Total crosses 110 Stage-III Hybrids 1 AHSIII-1 Evaluation of stage 3 hybrids (Set 1) 35 2 3 2 AHSIII-2 Medium maturing white hybrids - Diallel 20 2 3 3 AHSIII-3 Medium maturing yellow hybrids - Diallel 25 2 3 Total crosses 80 Stage-IV Hybrids 1 MLT-1 Multi-location evaluation of stage-IV hybrids 14 1 8 Stage-V Hybrids 1 MLT-2 Multi-location strip trials of stage-V hybrids Various 1 8-10 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 43  Greater flexibility in the evaluation process occurs after Stage–III based on various factors including collaborators preferences and the specific agro-ecologies or target environments. In Stage-IV, approximately 14 hybrids including checks are planted in larger plots on-farms at 50-60 locations. In Stage-V, 8-10 hybrids are demonstrated in farmer's fields in large plots up to 500 locations. Standard checks were used for comparing yield and other important traits of hybrids under evaluation. Selection of hybrids is being carried out by farmers and other stakeholders by organizing multiple field days by the concerned research stations or by HTMA partners. Finally, based on results from large scale testing across many locations, HTMA partners in South Asia are targeting to release 1-2 outstanding hybrids for their own country.  The project has generated thousands of experimental materials and has extensively evaluated potential heat tolerant maize hybrids in HTMA partnering countries including Bangladesh (9,486 genotypes), Bhutan (525), India (13,435 including seed companies), Nepal (10,842) and Pakistan (2,226 genotypes) in a four-year period. In 2016 alone, a total of 1,490 Stage-I to Stage-III hybrids were evaluated and best-bet hybrids advanced to MLT trials where farmers and other stakeholders made their selections during multiple field days organized in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2015. These hybrids were evaluated under Multi- Location Testing of Stage–IV in 237 locations under optimal conditions and 63 locations under heat stress environments in South Asia.  Hybrid testing included examining abiotic heat stress tolerance traits such as ASI, tassel blasting and leaf firing, biotic stress including disease (H. turcicum leaf blight and banded leaf and sheath blight (Rhizoctonia solani Kühn)), and insect resistance, plus important agronomic traits such as plant and ear height and lodging resistance. A total of 24 best–bet hybrids selected from various advanced stage trials during spring 2014 along with 3-4 commercial hybrids and 2-3 NARS hybrids were planted in demonstration trials at four locations each in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. During the late grain-filling stage, HTMA hybrid field days were organized in India, Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Invitees included local farmers, seed company representatives, staff from government agencies, input suppliers and national program scientists from both partners and non-partnering institutions. Each participant had the opportunity to score each hybrid as per their criteria and preferences, and their responses were then compiled and shared with participants. Compilation of the selection of hybrids across locations in all four partner countries showed that all the 24 HTMA hybrids were selected by some partners (Table 5). On the basis of performance of hybrids across locations, the HTMA hybrids were grouped into three major categories: a) six hybrids with broad/wide adaptation suitable across agro-ecologies, b) thirteen hybrids with adaptation to specific maize mega-environments, and c) five hybrids with adaptation to niche markets within a mega-environment. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 44 TABLE 5. SELECTION OF HTMA HYBRIDS Selected in on-farm demonstration trials conducted in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in 2015. Hybrids No of selected hybrids Type of Adaptation Yield level Target group ZH101442, ZH 111765, ZH114233, ZH11129, ZH138386, ZH111698 6 Wider adaptation across the agro￾ecologies Yield superior to best check (>10.8 t/ha) National programs and multi-national seed companies ZH137855, ZH152, ZH116072, ZH111948, ZH101429, ZH116108, ZH111948, ZH111737, ZH137856 , ZH151, ZH111656, ZH137998, ZH111948 13 Reasonable adaptation within specific agro￾ecologies Yield at par with best check (10.8 t/ha) Medium size private enterprises and South Asian Universities ZH111471, ZH153, ZH154, ZH137097, ZH116078 5 Specific adaptation/ niche markets within sub agro￾ecologies Yield equal to average mean of all checks (9.3 t/ha) Small enterprises Total 24  Of the first generation wave of hybrids, 24 out of 26 heat stress tolerant hybrids demonstrated were chosen by farmers of Bangladesh (9), Nepal (8), Pakistan (14), Bhutan (6), and India (6). CIMMYT provided licenses to HTMA partners for deployment of 18 best hybrids (Table 6). Three of the licensed HTMA hybrids (CAH1511, CAH1512 and CAH 153) ranked first, second and fourth in the All India Coordinated Regional Trials (AIRCP) in 2015. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 45 TABLE 6. FIRST SET OF HTMA HYBRIDS LICENSED TO PROJECT PARTNERS FOR DEPLOYMENT Two hybrids (CAH 1521 and CAH 1513) were licensed to three seed companies, and CAH 151 was licensed to two seed companies. Licensing of a hybrid to more than one Seed Company does not create a problem in seed marketing because CIMMYT hybrid licensing policy allows only one license for each agro-ecology/market. Hybrids are only licensed to multiple partners for geographically differentiated target markets. Country Partners Status Name of licensed hybrids No. of licensed hybrids Bangladesh BARI NARS CAH1510, CAH1514, CAH1516 and CAH14124 4 ACI Ltd SME CAH1521 and CAH1513 2 Pakistan Zamindara Seeds SME CAH1519, CAH1510 and CAH151 3 Jullundar Seeds SME CAH1521 and CAH1424 2 Hisell Seeds SME CAH1513, CAH127, CIH122 and CAH155 4 Nepal NMRP NARS CAH1520, CAH158, CAH1513, CAH1521 and CAH1515 5 India UAS, Raichur NARS CAH1511, CAH1512, CAH1526 and CAH156 4 Ajeet Seeds SME CAH151 and CAH153 2 Total 26  A second wave of 47 promising heat tolerant hybrids have been identified after extensive testing in Stage-II in the South Asia region. Hybrids with yields equal to or better than the best checks were selected and advanced to the next stage for further evaluation. These hybrids are being evaluated at various locations in partnering countries in South Asia.  A total of 1097 experimental hybrids (Stage-I) developed by CIMMYT using promising heat tolerant lines were evaluated in 2016 in both optimal and heat stress environments at various locations in South Asia. Promising hybrids were selected based on the following criteria: o Yield equal or better than the popular heat tolerant commercial hybrid Pioneer 30Y45. o Flowering time equal to or less than the commercial checks. The commercial hybrids used for comparing days to flowering and anthesis were BIO9544, D2244, P844 and P1855. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 46 o Hybrids which had significantly superior yield compared to 30Y45 entered directly into MLTs while the second best group was promoted to Stage-II trials in Spring 2016.  The project has begun to group testing sites according to VPD. VPD is a good indication of the moisture in the atmosphere and is a good measure of heat stress. Locations with optimal temperature conditions have low VPD whereas heat stressed sites have high VPD. A total of 110 Stage-II hybrids selected from spring 2015 and 80 hybrids selected from spring 2014 and 2015 seasons were evaluated in 177 locations in South Asia during the spring season of 2016. Among the top 10% best performing across sites, 65 hybrids were selected and advanced to Stage–III evaluation. Mean yield of hybrids grouped based on location VPD ranged from 1.65 to 10.98 t/ha.  A total of 45 promising hybrids were selected from Stage–III from spring 2014 and 2015. These were evaluated during the spring season of 2016 at 147 locations in South Asia. Testing locations were characterized for VPD into high (>5.0 kPa), medium (3-5 kPa), and low (<3.0 kPa) categories. o High VPD: The top 10% of hybrids were evaluated in five high-VPD locations in India. High-VPD locations are extremely severe stress environments. The mean grain yields of all hybrids in five locations is higher than the checks, where yields ranged from 2.52 to 4.53 t/ha. These high-VPD 5 locations in India are extremely important for evaluation and selection of hybrids suitable for heat stress including drought tolerance. o Medium VPD: Stage–III hybrids were evaluated at five medium-VPD locations in the spring season of 2016: Lalmonirhat, Ishuward, and Barisal in Bangladesh, Rampur in Nepal and Sabor in India. Medium-VPD locations are also severe environments from heat stress perspectives for evaluation and selection of hybrids. The mean grain yield of all hybrids across all locations was significantly higher than the checks. Hybrids tested at Lalmonirhat, Bangladesh showed lower mean grain yields (5.46 t/ha) while hybrids at Sabor, India had the highest mean grain yields (6.86 t/ha). Both high-VPD and medium-VPD locations are important stress environments for evaluation and selection of hybrids for stress tolerance and also for deployment of HTMA hybrids. o Low VPD: The low-VPD locations provide a relatively favorable environment. Three locations were in Pakistan (Faisal1, Sahiwal and Faisal2), 4 in Bangladesh (Jessor, Gazipur, Savar, and Bittipara1) and three in India (Aurangabad, Hoshiryarpur and Bittipara2). The observed hybrid performance showed HTMA material superior to the checks in 4 locations and lower than the checks in 6 locations. The susceptible check is more competitive with HTMA hybrids in low￾VPD locations, while being outperformed in medium and high-VPD locations.  A total of 59 superior hybrids have been selected by NARS and other partners in South Asia (Table 7). Partners have selected their hybrids based on the HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 47 performance of hybrids at their own locations. Number of hybrids selected ranged from one hybrid by Lal Teer Seeds in Bangladesh to 13 Bihar Agricultural University (BAU), Bihar, India. The highest range of grain yield among the selected hybrids was observed at MMRI in Pakistan (11.0 to 12.3 t/ha). HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 48 TABLE 7. HTMA PROJECT PARTNER HYBRID SELECTIONS Selections based on multi-location testing trials in spring season in South Asia in 2016. Institute/Country Selected hybrids Number of selected hybrids Range of grain yield (t/ha) NMRP, Nepal ZH141592, ZH15445, ZH169, ZH1621, ZH15374, ZH1622 & VH12337 7 6.1 - 7.4 BARI, Bangladesh ZH15445 1 2.1 - 8.1 BRAC, Bangladesh ZH141592, ZH15445, ZH15381 & ZH138088 4 6.5 - 9.2 Lar Teer Seeds, Bangladesh ZH15445 1 0.4 - 9.5 Supreme Seeds, Bangladesh ZH141592, VH12337 & ZH1620 3 3.3 - 9.2 MMRI, Pakistan CAH 1516, CAH 153, CAH1510 & CAH1511 4 11 - 12.3 UAS, Raichur, India CAH 153, CAH 152, CAH 1511, ZH1621, ZH15381, VH12337, & ZH138088) VH12333 8 5.0 - 6.6 Pioneer Hi-Bred International ZH1620, ZH141592, ZH15374, CAH1511, CAH153 & ZH114228 6 4.2 - 6.1 Kaveri Seeds Z590-35, Z732-1, Z733-8, Z-590-35, Z590-38 & Z733-15 6 5.5 - 7.2 Ajeet Seeds, India Z822-3, Z822-6, Z822-7, Z478-3, Z376- 3 & Z376-7 6 6.5 - 7.3 BAU, Bihar, India CAH153, CAH152, CAH1511, CAH151, ZH114228, ZH1621, ZH15445, ZH15374, ZH15381, ZH15383, ZH1622, ZH14159 & ZH1620 13 4.7 - 6.2 Total 59  DH is a proven technique used to develop homozygous lines rapidly in allogamous crops. DH technology shortens the breeding cycle significantly by rapid development of completely homozygous lines in 2-3 generations, instead of the 6-8 generations required by the conventional inbred lines development process to derive lines with more than 99% homozygosity. Haploids can be produced using both anther culture and, more recently, through haploid inducers. This technique requires two generations to reach to D1 plants (even only 8 months in case of Pioneer technique, where they use an immature embryo for the induction process). Anther culture is another option, but this method is not popular in the case of tropical maize because HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 49 of the low DH induction rate. DH technology undoubtedly provide a powerful means to modernize the maize breeding operations through simplified logistics and significantly less resource investment, deriving completely homozygous lines for hybrid development and deployment.  Because DH production can be difficult, the project has been wise to outsource this work to experienced laboratories at Pioneer and CIMMYT. Pioneer has produced 2,428 DH lines for the project to date. 1,030 DH lines are now under line increase with a subset to be used to evaluate and validate genomic regions for heat tolerance. A total of 755 DH top cross (DHTC) hybrids have been evaluated for the first time at various locations in South Asia (Table 8). Based on heat tolerance traits and grain yield, 66 promising Stage-I DHTC hybrids have been selected by partners and advanced to Stage-II.  CIMMYT-Hyderabad has been supplying limited quantities (up to 1 kg) of breeder or research seed of inbred lines and F1 hybrids to project partners. Also, CIMMYT has been producing sufficient seeds of all kind of experimental materials required for the successive breeding and evaluation seasons. Collaborators have been receiving complete trial sets since the beginning of the project. Partners have begun to produce their own inbred line and F1 hybrid seed as shown in Table 9. In total HTMA partners produced 293 kg of parental lines seed and 20.7 of F1 hybrid seeds. The low volume of seed production by project partners was largely due to the widespread drought and heat in South Asia and the limited quantities of inbred seed available from CIMMYT. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 50 TABLE 8. DHTC HYBRIDS SELECTED BY HTMA PROJECT PARTNERS Selections based on multi-location testing trials in spring season in South Asia in 2016. Location Name of DHTC trials Selected DHTC hybrids No. of hybrids Range of grain yield (t/ha) BRAC, Bangladesh 16S DHTC -35 ZH16277, ZH16297 & ZH16307 3 3.77-4.26 16S DHTC -45 ZH16386 ZH16391 & ZH16396 3 2.96-8.57 16S DHTC -65 ZH16386, ZH162553, ZH16598 & ZH16606 4 2.76-10.30 16S DHTC -75 ZH1620 1 2.17-9.38 Lal Teer Seed, Bangladesh 16S DHTC-36 ZH16277 & ZH16282 2 2.94-9.46 16S DHTC-46 ZH16384 1 2.86-8.09 Subtotal, Bangladesh 14 NMRP, Nepal 16S DHTC -13 ZH 16162, ZH16153 & ZH16131 3 7.30–8.40 16S DHTC -23 ZH16224, ZH1695 & ZH16171 3 4.65-6.54 16S DHTC -33 ZH16310, ZH16304 & ZH16294 3 4.42-5.96 16S DHTC -43 ZH16345, ZH16402 & ZH16421 3 4.87-6.64 16S DHTC -53 ZH16471, ZH16450 & ZH16441 3 5.26-6.93 16S DHTC -63 ZH16527, ZH16616 & ZH16615 3 6.95-8.42 16S DHTC -13 ZH1662 ZH16153 & ZH16131 3 7.32-8.40 Subtotal, Nepal 21 Pioneer Hi-bred International 16S DHTC -2 ZH16203 1 6.91-8.61 16S DHTC -3 ZH16322 1 9.19-11.25 16S DHTC -4 ZH16405 1 8.82-9.39 16S DHTC -5 ZH16445 1 7.17-9.4 16S DHTC -6 ZH16524 & ZH16552 2 8.13-8.59 16S DHTC -7 ZH16646 1 9.21-10.14 Sub total, Pioneer 7 BAU, Bihar, India 16S DHTC -2 ZH16212 & ZH16218 2 6.07-7.55 16S DHTC -3 ZH16262 1 7.00-9.83 16S DHTC -4 ZH16348, ZH16397, ZH16399, ZH16400 & ZH16424 5 5.11-5.48 16S DHTC -5 ZH16434, ZH16458, ZH16465 & ZH16494 3 9.33-10.19 16S DHTC -6 ZH16552 & ZH16593 2 5.49-6.6.37 16S DHTC -7 ZH16639 1 5.05-6.19 Sub total, BAU 14 UAS, Raichur, India 16S DHTC -21 ZH1667, ZH16228 & ZH16192, ZH16199, & ZH16234 5 3.86-4.50 16S DHTC -81 ZH16757, ZH16727, ZH16763 ZH16760 & ZH16729 5 3.15-3.51 Sub total, UAS 10 Total 66 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 51 TABLE 9. HTMA PRODUCTION OF INBRED LINES AND HYBRID SEEDS Organization Inbred lines Seed produce d (kg) Hybrid name Seed produced (kg) Total seed produce d (kg) NMRP, Rampur, Nepal CAL1465 0.1 CAH158 (CAL1412/ CML286) 0.45 CAL1412 2.2 CAH1521(CAL1421 /CML451) 0.70 CAL1421 2.5 CAH1513(CAL1465 /CML451) 0.05 CZL0718 1.5 CAH1515(0718/CM L451) 1.5 CML286 0.55 CML451 0.95 Subtotal, NMRP 7.8 2.7 10.5 BARI, Bangladesh CAL158 40 CAL159 41 CAL1441 42 CAL1510 50 CML451 76 Sub total, BARI 249 249 ACI Seeds, Bangladesh CAL1421 6 CAH1521 3.5 CAL1465 7 CAH1513 4.5 CML451 3.5 Subtotal, ACI 16.5 8.0 24.5 Ajeet Seeds, India Inbred lines of CAH 151 10 CAH 151 5 Inbred lines of CAH153 10 CAH153 5 Sub total, Ajeet 20 10 30 Total 293.3 20.7 314  NARS partners are supporting the commercialization of HTMA hybrids for project partners by filing for release/registration of these materials with their national authorities. Two HTMA hybrids (Z583-2 & Z584-1) have been released for the state of Bihar upon the submission of proposals by BAU, Bihar, India to the varietal release committee. NMRP, Rampur, Nepal is in the process of submitting two proposals for two licensed hybrids (CAH151 and CAH153) for registration to the Nepalese National Seed Board. BARI, Bangladesh is also in the process of submitting four licensed hybrids to their national seed board for registration.  A socio-economic household survey study was carried out in Punjab and in Uttar Pradesh (UP) in India. The analyzed household level survey data conducted in HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 52 Punjab and Uttar Pradesh showed that 69% of respondents in UP were found willing to pay a higher price for seeds of maize varieties that are more heat tolerant. The share of respondents, willing to pay a higher price for such varieties was 80% for Punjab.  The project has obtained an updated future climate data set from recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project – Phase 5 (CMIP5) database, where current and future heat stress spots in South Asia were identified. Maps that show the impact of climate change on rain-fed and irrigated maize across South Asia and yield advantage of heat tolerant varieties over the current ones have been generated.  The EET visited HTMA yield trials in 7 different locations in India during 18-23 May 2016. One member of the EET visited HTMA field trials in 3 locations in Nepal during 13-15 and 29-30 May, 2016. These sites included on-station, on-farm, and on-farm farmer-managed fields. Other on-farm trials are managed both by the researchers and cooperating farmers. Planting dates ranged from 2 December 2015 to 25 March 2016, largely representing the spring and the main season. At all sites both qualitative and quantitative observations were taken to estimate the quality of field execution and likelihood of experimental results to contribute toward project objectives. A simple 1 to 5 rating scale (with 1= excellent or desirable, and 5= poor or undesirable) was used to estimate a series of key factors that commonly affect crop performance, and an overall plot quality rating was also taken. Ratings are presented in Table 10, and field trial descriptions and EET remarks are in Table 11. The crop stage during our visits ranged from early flowering to the physiological maturity and harvesting stage. All trials at all sites that we observed had an appropriate experimental design, consistent with the project’s objectives. o Plant stand was excellent at all sites (ratings of 1-1.5) with the exception of UAS￾Raichur, India. This location also had a problem with border rows for proper competition, which were not planted in several trials. All other sites had excellent bordering. The year 2016 was a very dry and hot year in most testing locations. Depending upon the site, anywhere from 5 to 10 irrigation applications were made. Management of the type and timing of irrigation was very good at most sites. Ratings were worse at the Nepal locations because of delayed irrigations due to the common occurrence of nationwide power outages. Root and stalk lodging was low at most sites (ratings of 1-2) with the exception of the fields at Pioneer and Kaveri Seeds in the Punjab, India where a major storm with high winds and rain struck the night before our visit. Weeds were well managed in all the field trials both in India and Nepal. We have not observed any weed problem in the fields and has found excellent in terms of agronomic practices as well as overall field management. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 53 TABLE 10. QUANTITATIVE OBSERVATIONS OF FIELD TRIALS Factors affecting plot quality were rated by the EET on a 1-5 scale, where 1 = excellent or desirable, 3 = average, and 5 = poor. Collaborator, Location Date of Planting Crop Stage Plant Stand Bordering Irrigation Lodging Weeds Disease Insects Damage Heat stress Overall NMRP, Rampur, Nepal 2 Dec - 22 Feb 2016 Dough to harvest 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 Gaindakot and Dumarwana, Nepal 15 Nov - 24 Feb 2016 Grain filling to harvest 1 1 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 RARS, Nepalgunj, Nepal 18 Mar 2016 Early grain filling 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 CIMMYT, Hyderabad, India 15 25 Mar 2015 Early flowering to grain filling 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1.5 1 2.5 1 UAS, Raichur, India 17 Mar 2016 Early grain filling 2.5 2 2 1.5 1 1 2.5 1 2 2.5 UAS, B.Gudi, India 19 Mar 2016 Early grain filling 1.5 1 1 1 1.5 1 1 1 2 1.5 Pioneer Hi-Bred Seeds, Punjab, India 18 Feb - 19 Mar 2016 Flowering to dough 1 1 1 2 1.5 1 2 1 1 1 Kaveri Seed, Hoshiarpur, Punjab, India 5 Feb 2016 Dough to harvest 1.5 1 1.5 3.5 2 1 1 1 2 3 Ajeet Seeds, Aurangabad, India 23 Jan - 1 Feb 2016 Physiological maturity to harvest 1 1 1.5 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 Ajeet Seeds, Hosiarpur, Punjab, India 16 Feb 2016 Dough to harvest 1 1 1.5 2.5 1.5 1 1.5 1 1.5 2 HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 54 TABLE 11. FIELD TRIAL DESCRIPTIONS AND REMARKS Collaborator, Location Trial Descriptions Remarks NMRP, Rampur, Nepal Evaluation of heat tolerant hybrids for Turcicum blight and other agronomic traits, including MLTs and test crosses of doubled-haploid (DH) hybrids Overall uniform field with excellent agronomic management. Major problem is drought which is complicated by the frequent power outages which affected the planned irrigation application. Minimal heat stress symptoms observed. Maize stem borer and turcicum leaf blight present but damage likely to be minimal. Gaindakot and Dumarwana, Nepal Multi-location trials (MLT) and on-farm demonstrations of selected heat stress tolerant hybrids Good agronomic management but fields significantly affected by drought. A severe outbreak of turcicum leaf blight occurred at Gaindakot which is known to be a hot spot for this disease. None of the varieties tested showed resistance at this site. Minimal heat stress symptoms observed. RARS, Nepalgunj, Nepal Evaluation of selected heat tolerant hybrids including test crosses of DH lines Overall uniform fields with excellent agronomic management. Plots largely free of disease and insect pests. Modest amount of leaf firing and tassel blasting observed. CIMMYT, Hyderabad, India Evaluation of early and medium maturity heat tolerant yellow and white hybrids in strip and MLTs; DH per se line evaluation Uniform fields with excellent agronomic management. No disease and insect pests observed. Heat stress symptoms including tassel blasting, leaf firing, leaf rolling, and pollen sterility observed. UAS, Raichur, India Evaluation of selected heat tolerant hybrids including early maturing yellow and white grained hybrid types in strip and MLTs Main concern is variable plant stands and lack of border rows in some trials. No diseases observed but stem borer found in three trials. Drought affected crop growth. Modest amount of heat stress symptoms observed. UAS, B.Gudi, India Evaluation of selected heat tolerant hybrids including early maturing yellow and white grained hybrid types in strip and MLTs Overall uniform field with good agronomic management. No diseases observed, with minor presence of stem borer. Modest expression of heat stress symptoms such as tassel blasting and leaf firing observed. Pioneer Hi-Bred Seeds, Punjab, India Strip and MLTs including DH test crosses, CIMMYT x Pioneer hybrids, early and medium maturing yellow and white hybrids Overall uniform field with excellent agronomic management. Plants were healthy, vigorous and tall compared to other sites we visited in India. No diseases observed, although stem borer damage found in several plots. Lodging was a problem for certain entries. No heat stress symptoms observed. Kaveri Seed, Hoshiarpur, Punjab, India MLTs of selected heat resilient hybrids Significant incidence of root and stalk lodging occurred partially due to a storm that struck the night before our visit. No disease or insect pests observed. Modest expression of heat stress symptoms observed. Ajeet Seeds, Aurangabad, India Strip and MLTs of early maturing yellow￾grained heat tolerant hybrids Fields were uniform and extremely well managed. No disease or insect pest issues. Modest expression of heat stress symptoms observed. Ajeet Seeds, Hosiarpur, Punjab, India Strip and MLTs of selected heat tolerant hybrids Overall good agronomic management and plot quality. No disease issues although minor damage by the maize stem borer observed. Minimal expression of heat stress symptoms. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 55 o All field trials observed in Indian locations were free of major disease problems and received a rating of 1. Gaindakot and Rampur, Nepal, were the only sites where significant disease occurred, including H. turcicum leaf blight and the banded sheath and leaf blight. Gaindakot is known to be a hot spot for H. turcicum in the spring season. However, the site was rated as 3 (or intermediate) as the disease incidence was not severe and likely will have minimal effect on plot yields. Although the Asian stem borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) was observed at several sites, its occurrence at low levels suggests it will not present a problem. Bird and animal damage ratings were 1 or excellent at all locations. o The main heat stress symptoms observed were leaf firing, leaf rolling, tassel blasting and pollen sterility. Even though we observed these symptoms at all but one of the Indian locations and at Regional Agriculture Research Station (RARS), Nepalgunj in Nepal, their occurrence was low with ratings in the 1 to 2 range. On the one hand, the presence of these symptoms is a positive indication that the site is being exposed to the necessary heat stress. At most sites the plots showing maximum heat stress symptoms were the heat susceptible checks. Conclusions Field execution of the HTMA trials we visited was very good to excellent. Eight out of ten locations had overall plot quality ratings of 1 to 2 and should yield useful data. Particular attention should be given to data coming from The UAS-Raichur, India site because of bordering problems, as well as the Kaveri Seeds, Punjab, India site because of heavy root and stalk lodging. During the course of our external evaluation of HTMA, the EET heard little about several important issues that need be addressed when developing abiotic stress tolerant maize hybrids (per Betran et al. 2003): - The relationship between inbred and hybrid performance under stress; - The comparative performance of inbreds selected for stress tolerance versus conventionally selected inbreds; - Gene action and dosage effects; - The type of tester most appropriate for developing stress tolerant hybrids. Our main source of information about these topics has come from a yet to be published thesis abstract entitled “Combining ability, heterosis and G x E interaction in tropical maize under heat stress and optimal environments.” by P. Devi (Limagrain), S.S Verma (GBPUAT, Pantnagar), and B.S. Vivek (CIMMYT, India). P. Devi was formerly a graduate student with the HTMA project. We never had access to the data set from this study. However, this research suffers from: - Lack of sufficient inbreds (9 with 6 HT and 3 susceptible) - Insufficient testing environments within and over years - utilization of only 8 testing environments under optimal and heat stressed conditions during Rabi 2010, Spring 2011, and Kharif 2011. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 56 - Conclusions that are not consistent with the literature – the authors concluded that “additive genetic effects appeared to be more important for grain yield under optimal conditions, but both additive and non-additive genetic effects were more important under extreme and moderate heat stress conditions in this set of inbred lines.” - Publication delay due to departure of the graduate student to work with the private sector. Recommendations  The testing system for HTMA hybrids allows flexibility from Stage-III onwards. For this we recommend that number of entries particularly for Stage–III and MLT should be same for two seasons/two years. Number of entries of the trials and testing locations should also be same to have data for two years.  Large plot demonstrations of hybrids in many locations have significantly contributed to farmer interest and willingness to adopt hybrid technology. Therefore, emphasis should be given on demonstrating hybrids in large plots at many locations as possible. Multiple field days should be organized regularly in every season and year by responsible NARS research programs and their collaborating partners.  In discussions with maize scientists and technicians from SME, we learned that their seed companies do not own sufficient land to conduct all sets of experimental trials provided by the project. In this situation, the seed companies either have to rent land to conduct these trials or need to conduct in farmer's fields’ which is not very practical for Stage-I to III trial sets. The HTMA partners from Nepal expressed their views that it is not practical for them to evaluate large trials common in Stages I, II, and III because of large entry numbers and the fact that they do not own land for testing. However, these companies can handle stage-III and MLTs. If testing of all stage of trial is mandatory even to the seed companies, we recommend that the project should either reduce its number of trial sets (from Stage-I or II trials) or reduce number of entries.  We strongly recommend that not only should the Devi et al. study, completed in 2011, be written up and published, but that more comprehensive and focused follow￾up studies be conducted, ideally lead by a Ph.D. student. We suggest that priority among the issues raised above be given to gene action and dosage effects. Lessons learned As the project looks to the future, seed production probably stands as the greatest opportunity and challenge for the project to make significant impact in farmer’s fields. Although the private sector will continue to lead in the seed realm, the public sector including CIMMYT, NARS, and NGOs will continue to play important roles in the South Asia region. Most partners in smaller countries except India have not yet developed confidence in hybrid seed production and the seed business. (EQ 4b) HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 57  We recommend that country/region specific practical modalities for hybrid seed production should be developed by NARS and seed companies, which could be commercial contract or cooperative type models where whole villages/areas or communities are involved. Key lessons can be learned from The Hill Maize Research Project where during 2011, 195 community based seed production groups in Nepal produced and distributed OPV seed to approximately 50,000 households in 20 targeted hill districts. NARC/NMRP-Nepal and CIMMYT were key collaborators in this effort. A separate seed production project should be designed by each country with a hybrid deployment plan and specific seed road map developed and implemented so that seed is sustainably produced and multiplied. Subsidies or other incentive packages (crop insurance possibly with revolving financial account for seed production) could be used to promote seed production activities. Also, we recommend that the project consider developing a HTMA hybrid maize seed production system network where seed companies and seed producers can obtain technical backstopping and other support as and when necessary.  Expand seed production research for inbreds/hybrids. With the ahead-of-schedule deployment of hybrids, the project team made a great effort to provide parental line seed and SPR information such as male and female line flowering time, male pollen production, and female seed quality and quantity along with additional recommendations to assist producers of hybrid seed. Most of the information is based on line per se evaluations in two locations including Hyderabad and a nearby site about 100 km away. With G x E typically large for inbred line evaluations, efforts should be made to conduct these studies in additional regions in India and possibly other project countries.  Cost of seed is often a critical factor affecting farmer demand and adoption of hybrids. The household socio-economic studies survey carried out by the project was conducted only in the Punjab and Utter Pradesh areas of India. We recommend in the next phase that similar studies on product targeting, product pricing and farmer adoption of heat tolerant maize hybrid seed be conducted in additional project countries as the socio-economic conditions may be different affecting farmer demand for seed and a willingness to pay a higher price.  With all of the seed production activities we believe are essential for the future success of the HTMA, we recommend that the project support at least 0.5 FTE of a seed production specialist and 2.0 FTE for seed technician/experts to lead the seed production research and training efforts, continue maintenance and production of breeder seed, and provide technical backstopping to project partners. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 58 Objective 5 Strengthen capacity of alliance partners, including South Asian maize breeding programs and local seed companies. Findings  Capacity building is one of the important objectives of the Heat Tolerance Maize for South Asia (HTMA) project. The project aims to enhance the capacity of maize researchers/technicians in the public and private sectors and strengthening institutional capacity of alliance partners. Two types of training provided to project partners includes: 1) Short-term professional training on phenotyping for heat stress tolerance in maize, molecular breeding including genomic selection, and seed production; and 2) long term training for graduate students to pursue Ph.D. and M.S. degrees in plant breeding/biotechnology from Purdue University, USA; UAS, Raichur, India; BAU, Bangladesh and AFU, Rampur, Nepal. The third type of activity includes strengthening the institutional capacity of maize breeding programs through supplying elite germplasm and other support such as supplying weather stations for research stations of HTMA partners.  Ten short-term professional training courses were organized by the HTMA project at CIMMYT- Hyderabad and also jointly organized at partnering project countries (Table 12). From 2013 to 2016, the project has trained a total of 334 people (228 men and 46 women). o By topic: Six of these training courses were on precision phenotyping for heat stress tolerance in maize in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan with a total of 195 participants. Two courses on molecular breeding including genomic selection were taught at CIMMYT-Hyderabad for a total of 118 participants. The most recent course focused on maize seed production and seed business management where 21 people participated. o By gender: From a gender perspective, participation of women in courses on precision phenotyping for heat stress tolerance in maize was 12.8%, for molecular breeding 16.9 %, and for maize seed production and seed business management 4.9%. Broken out by country, participation by women was 34.4% in Bangladesh followed by 15.6% in India, 6.6% in Nepal and 5.7% in Pakistan. The overall participation of women in all training programs was only 13.8%. o By country: The total number of persons trained by country was 206 people (61.7%) for India, 61 people for Nepal (18.3%), 35 people for Pakistan (10.5%) and 32 people for Bangladesh (9.6%). HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 59 TABLE 12. SHORT-TERM TRAINING COURSES BY HTMA Yea r Date Title Location Number of participants Total Men Women 1 23 Jan 2013 Genomic selection in maize Hyderabad, India 27 22 5 1 6-7 May 2013 Precision phenotyping for heat stress tolerance Hyderabad, India 32 26 6 2 16 Jan 2014 Phenotyping heat stress tolerance in maize Rampur, Nepal 30 28 2 2 20-30 May, 2014 Phenotyping for heat stress tolerance and seed production Yousafwala, Pakistan 35 33 2 2 12-17 May 2014 Statistical and genomic analysis Hyderabad, India 62 49 13 3 17 Apr 2015 Phenotyping for heat stress tolerance and seed production Rampur, Nepal 31 29 2 3 21 Apr 2015 Phenotyping for heat stress tolerance and seed production Gazipur, Bangladesh 32 21 11 3 15 May 2015 Phenotyping for heat stress tolerance and data management Hyderabad, India 35 33 2 3 12 Aug 2015 Genomic selection using data generated under HTMA Hyderabad, India 29 27 2 4 28-30 Mar 2016 Maize seed production and seed business management course Hyderabad, India 21 20 1 Total 334 288 46  Training workshops were organized in a timely fashion such that course topics coincided with critical field activities. Workshop instructors were experienced in their subject area and well-prepared to deliver lectures and lead field discussions. Trainees in the phenotyping for heat tolerance courses obtained practical skills and knowledge about field protocols for recording heat stress data for numerous maize traits, using field screening tools, plus data management and analysis. Participants from the molecular breeding workshops learned about genotyping methods, analysis and data interpretation. Graduates of the maize seed production and seed business management workshop learned valuable lessons about a range of topics including parental inbred line seed increase, hybrid production, quality control, post-harvest seed conditioning, marketing, etc.  The HTMA project has supported long-term graduate training for 14 people from Bangladesh, Nepal, India and the USA (Table 13). HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 60 TABLE 13. HTMA GRADUATE STUDENTS IN THE U.S. AND SOUTH ASIA Home country Degre e Major Project Title University Graduatio n Date Banglades h Ph.D. Molecular breeding Genetic dissection for heat stress tolerance in tropical maize (Zea mays L.) BARI, Bangladesh Dec. 2017 Nepal Ph.D. Molecular breeding Phenotyping and QTL Analysis of Heat Stress Associated Traits in Maize AFU, Nepal Dec. 2017 India M.S.* Plant breeding Genetic architecture of reproductive traits in tropical maize under heat stress UAS, Raichur July 2015 India M.S.* Plant breeding Early generation testing of maize (Zea mays L.) for heat stress tolerance UAS, Raichur July 2015 India Ph.D. Plant breeding Studies on genetic gains with genomic selection for heat stress tolerance in maize (Zea mays) UAS, Raichur July 2017 India M.S.* Plant breeding Genetic analysis for heat stress tolerance in maize UAS, Raichur June 2016 India** M.S. Plant breeding Inheritance studies of heat stress tolerance in tropical maize UAS, Raichur June 2017 India** M.S. Plant breeding Effect of genotype x environment interaction on combining ability under heat stress UAS, Raichur June 2017 USA Ph.D.* Plant breeding Genetic Regulation of Maize and Sorghum under Abiotic Stress Purdue University May 2015 USA Ph.D. Plant breeding Heat Stress Tolerance in Maize Purdue University May 2016 USA Ph.D. Plant breeding Mutants of Genes for Abiotic Stress Tolerance Purdue University May 2016 USA Ph.D. Plant breeding Mapping Genes for Heat Stress Tolerance in Maize Purdue University May 2016 USA Ph.D.* Plant breeding Maize Lipidome and Heat Adaptation Purdue University May 2015 USA** Ph.D.* Plant breeding Validation of Genes for Heat Stress Tolerance in Maize Purdue University May 2015 students con * Degree completed ** Women HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 61 o Of the 14 graduate students, 9 students are/were enrolled in Ph.D. programs and 5 students for Master’s degrees. Of the total, 7 students (2 at CIMMYT- India and 5 at Purdue University) are fully supported by the HTMA project. The rest students are supported only for their research components. The selection of candidates for graduate studies was conducted consistent with the project proposal. The candidates were chosen on a competitive basis with both written exams and formal interviews required. The time line given in the project proposal has been strictly followed. o Three Ph.D. students have already completed their degrees in Plant Breeding from Purdue University, USA. In addition, 3 students have also completed their MSc degree in Plant breeding from University of Agricultural Sciences (UAS), Raichur, India. o Research projects assigned to the graduate students included either molecular related activities associated with HTMA objectives 1, 2 & 3 (9 students) or breeding activities associated with objective 4 (5 students). o A Ph.D. student from Bangladesh’s research topic is to identify the genomic regions for ASI and grain yield in DH testcrosses and to conduct QTL mapping and genomic selection for heat tolerance (with a special focus on tassel blasting and leaf firing) in tropical maize. The focus of the Ph.D. research project of a student from Nepal is on QTL mapping of DH lines derived from synthetic populations with an emphasis on investigating the effect of heat stress on pollen and silk viability. When interviewed by the EET, both Ph. D students expressed the practical benefit of their graduate training with the HTMA project. They specifically mentioned the valuable experience obtained conducting field research under heat stress, the application of molecular breeding tools, the use of smart technology such as hand held devices for data collection in the fields, and the use of excellent statistical tools for data analysis. They also expressed their views that QTL mapping and genomic selection were very useful and applicable for conditions in their respective countries.  In a separate interview with the EET, three graduate students from UAS-Raichur, India highlighted how the protocols for phenotyping for heat stress tolerance traits, and field screening tools were very practical and effective. These students also expressed the very useful knowledge they have gained using molecular breeding tools and statistical analysis.  All of the graduate students interviewed indicated that the research focus of the HTMA project was very important for the region and their countries. Several students who had participated in harvest of yield trials commented about the superior performance of the best HTMA hybrids compared to commercial checks.  Many of the graduate students expressed the need for longer term (3-4 months) practical training in biotechnology including wet lab technique experience, potentially in India, Mexico, or the USA. The three graduate students from UAS-Raichur HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 62 requested the opportunity to spend time at CIMMYT Hyderabad to learn more about how the HTMA project functions and to have more interaction with project scientists.  The HTMA project aims to strengthen the capacity of institutions and staff for developing field phenotyping capacity for heat stress tolerance and effective data capture and management. The project has provided and established 6 US Davis weather stations: one each to Kaveri Seeds Pvt Ltd at Baijenki, India; Kaveri seeds at Punjab, India; BAU, Sabor, India; and at UAS, Raichur, India. Conclusions Professional training courses organized by the project at CIMMYT-Hyderabad and partnering countries in South Asia were well organized, well managed and very effective in helping trainees to obtain practical knowledge and skills in heat stress phenotyping, molecular breeding (genomic selection) and seed production. The project team is to be commended for organizing these ten excellent short term training courses, which is double the amount in the project proposal. Significantly more researchers and technical staff were trained than originally proposed. The project’s accomplishments in training were excellent not only in quantity but also quality. Workshop instructors were experienced in their subject area and well-prepared to deliver lectures. Course participants appreciated the practical knowledge gained plus the hands on experience. Trainee graduates have returned to their home countries and produced quality field data under heat-stressed environments leading to the advancement of promising hybrids. Recommendations  We strongly recommend that the short-term, professional training courses be continued so that additional researchers/technical staff can benefit. We suggest that priority be given to courses on seed production, followed closely by molecular breeding, then heat stress phenotyping.  It is absolutely essential that inbred line maintenance procedures with excellent quality control and good agronomic management are strictly adhered to as low production or contamination of inbred lines at early stages must be avoided. We note that parental line and F1 production of licensed hybrids was low in most partner countries (Table 9) and suggest that this topic have top priority in future seed production courses.  Training in post-harvest technology, product promotion and marketing is needed particularly for the public sector partners using community based seed production modalities. Private companies using commercial seed production systems commonly have expertise in these areas although the scale and methodologies for their application may be different.  Based on EET interviews with HTMA partners, 75% of researchers, and graduate students from India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan requested the opportunity to HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 63 participate in a medium term training (3-5 month) course on molecular breeding held either in CIMMYT/ICRISAT-Hyderabad; CIMMYT, Mexico; or Purdue University, USA.  The participation of women in both short and long term training was considerably low and needs to increase in the next phase.  Consider developing a HTMA hybrid maize seed production system network where seed companies and other producers can obtain technical backstopping, training, and other support.  Dr. Sadananda, CIMMYT seed production specialist, has decades of valuable experience in the public and private sector seed industry. We understand that he currently is allocating 0.2 FTE to the HTMA project but in our view this is not enough. We recommend that the project support at least 0.5 FTE for a seed production specialist and 2.0 FTE for seed technician/experts to lead the seed production research and training efforts, continue maintenance and production of breeder (and possibly foundation) seed, and provide technical backstopping to project partners.  The project should provide additional US Davis model weather stations to Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Pakistan in order to generate quality and consistent data among the project’s partners. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 64 4. PROJECT FUTURE Project Management As the HTMA project looks to the future, we do not suggest changing the project structure or the five objectives. However, a re-consideration of the emphasis and associated resource allocation for each objective is warranted. The tremendous positive response of the projects partners to the performance of the 1st-generation HTMA hybrids in large￾scale demonstrations in four countries resulted in licensing of 18 out of 24 HTMA pre￾commercial hybrids from CIMMYT. This resulted in a more rapid shift in project focus on deployment and seed system work, ahead of the project schedule. Among the hybrids, 6 had broad adaptation across agro-ecological zones in the South Asian region and 12 had good adaptation in specific mega-environments. Additionally, the outstanding performance of HTMA hybrids during the main maize season (kharif/rainy season), which is prone to drought and heat in the All-India coordinated trials led to three HTMA hybrids (including #1) among the top five in comparison with several hybrids nominated by the Indian public sector institutions as well as seed company hybrids. This broad adaptation of superior HTMA hybrids suggest they likely possess both heat and drought tolerance. This should open up new opportunities to expand the scope of HTMA to the main maize season which is largely grown as rainfed maize and covers over 70% of maize area in South Asia. Combining heat and drought tolerance in newer project products should be a high priority. Such products would have the potential for use not just in the spring but kharif (main rainy season) and rabi (winter) seasons potentially impacting millions of households. (EQ 8a) We believe an increase in project funding is justified for various reasons including: - projects success in achieving and going beyond milestones in most areas - rapid expansion in deployment activities with commercial release of many HTMA hybrids (Note: to date management has leveraged funds from outside the project to help finance much of this work) - effective functioning and growth of the PPP including the addition of +1 NARS and +11 private sector in 2016 - number of DH lines entering the pipeline - large demand for training - possibility of significantly expanding the project target area If funding is restricted in the future, we suggest the following by objective: 1. Maintain: Basic research on underlying heat tolerant mechanisms is a logical area to reduce funding. However, expenses are largely being covered by Purdue University and the added scientific and morale boost provided by Dr. Tuinstra and his students in a critical area with limited published research results more than justify the investment. 2. Reduce: Excellent progress has been made to identify, validate, and introgress favorable genes/haplotypes for heat tolerance. Although much work still remains HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 65 we believe that funds allocated to this objective could be reduced without negative consequences for the project. 3. Pending: Implementing RCGS to improve heat tolerant synthetic populations is the only objective behind schedule. We cannot make recommendations at this time because evaluations of the synthetics formed to date and their improved cycles using RCGS are still pending. However, the project needs to make a decision on the priority of synthetic vs. hybrid development (see discussion below). 4. Increase: For the deployment of heat stress tolerant hybrids we recommend a major increase in resource allocation. 5. Maintain/increase: It is noteworthy that despite the fact that the project significantly exceeded its milestones in training/capacity building the number one request from those we interviewed was for more training particularly in the areas of molecular breeding and seed production. With 12 new project partners the demands for training will likely increase. Research Project Recommendations to bring about more effective and efficient achievement of objectives in future programming in HTMA or similar research projects are detailed in the “Lessons Learned” sections above. These include:  Objective 1: Precision phenotyping could be improved by new phenotyping methods that look at more traits over a greater number of plant development stages, using special sensors mounted on machinery that requires less field labor. (EQ 8b)  Objective 2: In field evaluations, individual locations and testers cause variation in results, so relaxed statistical thresholds may help identify promising genomic regions. (EQ 8b)  Objective 4: Expanded seed systems may hold the key to future success, but this is difficult in the context of limited public capacity, conflicting private priorities, and heterogeneity in socioeconomic factors of adoption. (EQs 4b and 8a) o We recommend that country/region specific practical modalities for hybrid seed production should be developed by NARS and seed companies. o Line evaluations and socio-economic studies should be conducted in additional regions. o Dedicated, specialist staff are needed. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 66 APPENDICES HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 67 APPENDIX A: SCOPE OF WORK Evaluation Purpose The purpose of this external performance evaluation of the Heat Tolerant Maize for South Asia project is to provide empirical evidence to respond to evaluation questions designed to support Lessons Learned and continuous improvement for BFS’s work in product development. The evaluation also assesses what is working well and what is not working well in implementation, assess progress toward outputs, outcomes, and provide information and recommendations that BFS can use to improve project effectiveness and better achieve intended outcomes. More specifically, the evaluation assesses the overall quality of the project and its outputs in light of Feed the Future Research Strategy and the project’s specific objectives. Further, the EET evaluates the effectiveness and contributions of the Project Management entity, and provides recommendations on subsequent structure of future research projects (from research directions to management styles). In addition, the EET provides recommendations to inform the development of new investments in heat tolerant maize cultivars in South Asia. Audience and Intended Uses These results are to be used by USAID to establish, i) whether continued funding of the current award is warranted or ii) to develop a future RFA (including project design) to address heat tolerance in maize. Evaluation Questions Research 1. To what extent did the project generate robust and quality research outputs using disciplinary-appropriate metrics? 2. How effective were the approaches used (e.g., genomics and doubled-haploid) for accelerating the development of heat tolerant varieties? What technical challenges were encountered, if any? 3. What contributions has this project made in terms of; a) Development of new germplasm with tolerance to abiotic stress; b) Development of new technologies or approaches; c) Likelihood of new varieties usable by farmers; d) Production of early generation seeds by partners from inbred lines, OPVs and/or hybrids (if applicable). 4. Given that the project is primarily aimed at products or elite lines which have development timelines beyond the scope of the award; a) What changes in project structure, including management, research, partnerships, etc., would increase the likelihood of success for: development of new varieties and experimental hybrids with heat tolerance and production of early generation seeds by the partners? HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 68 b) What components should this project include to support the HTMA improved varieties seed system to maximize dissemination to small-holder farmers in the future? Management 5. What worked, what did not work and what could be improved to better achieve project objectives in terms of: a) management and coordination; b) quality of collaborations or partnerships and; c) research design and implementation 6. This project involved public-private partnerships (PPPs). a) What types of contributions did each partner make to project objectives? b) In what ways could these partnerships be improved to better achieve project objectives? c) What type of opportunities are there for these and other partnerships to further research, capacity and dissemination goals? d) What particular challenges, e.g., legal, contractual, managerial, did the project encounter in the PPPs, if any? How were these challenges addressed? 7. What types of support did (a) USAID/BFS and (b) Missions provide to the project? In what ways, if any, did this support contribute to attaining project objectives? How could this interaction be improved? 8. For future programming in research projects, what changes would bring about more effective and efficient achievement of objectives, in terms of; a) management; b) research (design, implementation, communications, stakeholder involvement). c) other areas. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 69 APPENDIX B: EVALUATION PLAN The scope of this performance evaluation covers two main areas: research and management (APPENDIX A: SCOPE OF WORK). The research aspect of the evaluation focuses on the maize heat tolerant varieties developed by the project including both the modern molecular tools used to accelerate their development and the methodologies being implemented to disseminate seed into the hands of farmers. The management aspect covers how effectively project management provided vision, research direction, strengthened partnerships, and overall facilitated the application and implementation of the appropriate tools and resources leading to the development and dissemination of heat tolerant maize varieties. This includes an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the project’s unique public-private sector partnerships. A summary of knowledge and outcomes, illustrative indicators, and data sources is provided in Table 14 for research evaluation questions and in Table 15 for management evaluation questions. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 70 TABLE 14. EVALUATION PLAN SUMMARY FOR RESEARCH QUESTIONS Evaluation Questions Knowledge/Outcome Illustrative Indicators Source of Data 1. Robust and quality research outputs Presence of quality and robust research outputs leading to better understanding of the physiology, mechanisms, and genetics of heat stress tolerance in maize Peer reviewed research publications, other publications and reports, adoption of project outputs by other researchers Project documents, literature search, interviews with project management and collaborators, site visits 2. Technical approaches to accelerate development of heat-tolerant varieties Extent to which the approaches were effective for developing heat tolerant varieties; Information about application of modern molecular breeding tools and techniques available Validation of favorable genes/haplotypes controlling heat stress tolerance; effective implementation of RCGS and GWAS; Successful production in targeted quantities of homozygous inbred lines using double haploid technology; degree of breeder confidence in the use of the new molecular tools; Problems encountered Review of reports; interviews with PIs, program management, partner collaborators, graduate students; site visits 3. Project contributions: a) germplasm b) new tech c) new varieties d) early generation seed production The number/type of breeding products developed and produced more efficiently utilizing modern molecular technologies; dissemination and utilization of new approaches by project partners; exposure to and dissemination of projects products increasingly to farmers Series of heat tolerant inbred lines, hybrids, and synthetics available; Elite breeding products in the seed production pipeline; new biotechnology tools or approaches being adopted; On-farm trials being conducted in project target areas; Evidence of demonstration plots and field days for promotion of projects products; farmers’ perceived benefit of products; private sector perspective on cost of goods and seed sale profit potential Review of reports, interviews with NARS and private sector PIs, project management, site visits 4(a). Changes in project structure Options on project structure modifications to increase efficiency and speed delivery of products New ideas on management structure, new technology adoption, resource sharing, in-kind support, partnership building, strengthening links with advanced institutions, outsourcing. Interviews with project management and scientific staff, and NARS and private sector collaborators. 4(b). Support seed systems to maximize dissemination HTMA learning from seed dissemination activities of other projects; potential for seed dissemination to farmers at acceptable price and quantity; obstacles to seed production and dissemination in partner countries/regions. HTMA fosters effective and sustainable HICD among project partners; project supports the on￾going supply of quality breeder and foundation seed; project nurtures the developing collaboration between the public and private sectors; extent to which project has engaged the right partners taking advantage of collaborators’ strengths. Review of other related project reports, interviews particularly with NARS and private sector collaborators, input from seed production specialists HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 71 TABLE 15. EVALUATION PLAN SUMMARY FOR MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS Evaluation Questions Knowledge/Outcome Illustrative Indicators Source of Data 5. What worked, did not, or needs improvement in: a) management and coordination b) collaboration or partnerships c) research design and implementation Research activities are effectively managed and administered with clearly articulated vision; Advisory committees exercise appropriate and effective scientific oversight plus sound operational input; Contribution of management and coordination, partnerships and research design to effective implementation? Evidence that project staff and collaborators report effective and regular communication with project management; Indications of effectiveness in scope, quality and accessibility of project databases and overall information management; extent to which management and coordination, partnerships and research design contributed to effective implementation; Areas needing improvement. Project documents; review reports; interviews with management, PIs, collaborating researchers and stakeholders; site visits 6. In project PPP: a) partner contributions to objectives b) how to improve partnerships c)opportunities to further research, capacity, dissemination d) legal, contractual, or managerial challenges Public-private partnerships functioning effectively; Increased scientific collaboration and exchange; Increased linkages with project product promotion and dissemination activities; contributions of PPP to project objectives. Increase in number of public and private sector collaborators; Degree to which collaborators met their financial and in-kind commitments; Timeliness and completeness of reporting; Support for projects policies for seed allocation, data sharing, etc.; Number and type of opportunities developed for scientific collaboration; extent to which the right partners were selected and leveraged to maximize their strengths, resulting in major contributions to project objectives. Challenges encountered with PPP? Project documents; review reports; interviews with management, PIs, collaborating researchers and stakeholders particularly in NARS and the private sector; site visits 7. Support from a) central office and b) Missions USAID missions and BFS are engaged with project management, collaborators, and outreach activities. Contributions of missions and BFS to project objectives Evidence of good communication between USAID missions and BFS and project management, PIs, and collaborators; Demonstration of USAID mission role in identification of research priorities and presence of and assistance with linkages in participating countries. Project documents; review reports; interviews with management, PIs, collaborating researchers and stakeholders, USAID representatives; site visits 8. Future projects: a) management b) research c) other Role of project management and advisory committees in project research and dissemination activities. Project communication processes. Extent of participation by project stakeholders. Evidence of good participation and effective communication at project meetings; Gaps, barriers, and challenges limiting project progress. Interviews with project management and staff, PIs from NARS the private sector and US Universities, and other stakeholders. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 72 Evaluation data collection activities A primary means of quantitative and qualitative data collection was through Power Point presentations given by project staff during our first full day together in Hyderabad, India. These included presentations by Purdue and CIMMYT staff covering the five major objectives of the project. To facilitate travel by project partners outside India, country presentations from Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan were scheduled later (May 24) in Amritsar. A second critical source for data collection was the KIIs and observations taken by the EET throughout our stay including during field visits of research and demonstration trials (Table 16). Important themes for the primary data collection included: quality of research design and implementation, appropriateness of use of modern molecular tools, public-private sector collaboration, product scale-up and dissemination activities, capacity building, effectiveness of project management, monitoring and evaluation, and gender inclusion in the project. Interviewees (Table 17) included: the PI, collaborating scientists and stakeholders for NARS, private sector partners, project management and staff, graduate students, trainees and farmers. EET took advantage of the presence of Oversight Director of the Project in CIMMYT and Chair of the ESC, Project PI from Purdue University, and Project PIs from Nepal and Bangladesh in India during part of the trip. Over the May 17- 24 period, Dr. David Beck and Dr. Dil Bahadur Gurung of the EET visited various locations in India where HTMA field trials and demonstration blocks were being conducted by both public and private sector partners of the project. For the field trial visits the EET took both quantitative (Table 10) and qualitative (Table 11) observations. The quantitative data included ratings on a 1-5 scale (where 1=excellent or desirable and 5=poor or undesirable) for the following:  Overall plot quality  Germination and plant stands  Proper bordering of plots  Phenotypic expression of one or more traits associated with heat stress  Type and timing of irrigation applications  Presence of diseases and/or insects  Weed control  Bird or other animal damage This simple rating tool, commonly used by maize breeders, can rapidly and effectively be used to estimate the quality of field plot execution. Additionally, the EET took qualitative observations at the testing/demonstration sites focusing on research design and implementation, effectiveness of data collection and processing, consistency of research with project objectives, monitoring and evaluation activities, plus communication and dissemination strategies. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 73 One area of special interest was to observe the quality and extent of research collaboration in public–private partnerships for scope and quality of collaboration opportunities, quality of research projects, scientific interaction, sharing of information, and joint efforts in product promotion. Data Collection Approvals No data collection approvals are envisioned at this time. Confidentiality of responses to interview questions were maintained, and no names or identification were attached to them. Interview notes were coded with the general category of stakeholder and individual names kept separately to limit potential for disclosure. Data Collection Instruments The following section contains three interview protocols as examples of the type of the format and types of questions that were asked during interviews. Interview protocols were developed for each type of group interviewed including: Project Management, PIs and Collaborating Researchers, and Stakeholders and other Partners. a. Protocol for interviews of management personnel Introduction: The purpose of this interview is to assess the perspective of the management entity and the operations of the HTMA team in general, and the progress of the project. Interviews are confidential; results will be generalized such that it will not be possible to attribute comments to individuals. Our aim is to better understand the how research activities are proceeding, how the various project partners interact with each other and external groups and what factors might improve HTMA's ability to attain its objectives. I have several questions that will take approximately 45 minutes of your time. Do you have any questions before we begin? Questions: 1. First, could you explain your role and responsibilities in management for the HTMA project? 2. Thinking back to the beginning of the project in 2013, is the research progressing as laid out in the project documentation? Prompt: Can you identify particular activities that highlight the progress (e.g. new breeding lines, application of molecular techniques, journal articles, etc.)? Prompt: Are there activities that are ahead of schedule? Is anything falling behind? Prompt: Can you give me some examples? What do you think are the main reasons why these HTMA activities are not progressing as planned? Or are ahead of schedule? 3. Public-private partnerships are integral to the success of the project. What do HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 74 you see as the strengths and weaknesses of the projects partnerships? Prompt: What are key contributions from the different partners? Prompt: In what ways can these partnerships be improved? Prompt: As managers what particular challenges (e.g. legal, contractual, financial, etc.) have you encountered and how were they addressed? 4. How successful has HTMA been in fostering partnerships with local organizations or agencies, universities, and other stakeholders? Prompt: What types of connections has HTMA established? What has HTMA done with partner organizations to advance the aims of the project? Prompt: Do you think the partnerships work well? Are there partnerships that seem to work better than others? Why? Prompt: Have there been important contributions from these stakeholders or partners to HTMA research? Could you give us some examples? Prompt: Are there important countries or partners that are being left out of the HTMA program? 5. The incorporation of molecular breeding technologies has been essential for accelerating the HTMA projects development of improved varieties. How do you see the projects progress with these tools? Prompt: Which technologies have worked most effectively? Prompt: Which tools have been more difficult to implement? Prompt: In what ways, if any, have links with US universities and CIMMYT helped in the adoption of these tools? How could it be improved? Prompt: How well is the project dealing with addressing the massive amounts of data produced using these technologies? Prompt: What new biotechnology tools do you for see the project adopting in the future 6. Project heat tolerant maize varieties are soon to be disseminated to small-holder farmers. What components do you consider essential to maximize the effectiveness of this dissemination? What tools or training may be needed by local farmers? Prompt: How effective has the project been in supporting seed production and distribution and how do you see its role in the future? Prompt: What about promotional activities? 7. Are there any significant new directions for the HTMA due either to significant challenges encountered or to important findings or discoveries from the research? Prompt: How has HTMA been able to provide additional resources toward new opportunities or promising directions? Prompt: Does the HTMA program structure or budget allow short-term changes to facilitate investigation of newly emerging research themes? 8. One of the objectives of the HTMA is to support training and capacity building of the projects public and private sector partners. From your perspective how effective has the project been in accomplishing this? Prompt: Are their gaps for public and private sector partners that have not been adequately addressed? What areas if any should have been addressed? Prompt: How does the project identify perspective graduate students for advanced study? Prompt: How has the project benefitted from research findings of graduate HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 75 students? Prompt: How effective have the training programs/workshops been in terms of number of participants, appropriateness of subject matter, etc.? Prompt: How were the workshop candidates selected? Prompt: What themes are planned for future courses? Prompt: What research facilities have been established or improved? 9. How has HTMA included consideration of gender in its design and implementation? Prompt: Can you give us some detail on any gender specific findings, outputs or outcomes of HTMA's work? Prompt: What about the participation of women in the project either as researchers or as participants/local partners in the project. How are women integrated in the various activities of the project? Prompt: Were there specific efforts to engage women, women-owned enterprises or address the special needs of women farmers? 10. We have talked about many different things. Are there any additional issues that you would like to raise which have not been discussed? b. Protocol for interviews of PIs and Collaborating Researchers Introduction: The purpose of this interview is to assess the perspectives of member of the research teams funded under the Heat Stress Tolerance Maize for South Asia Project. We are conducting confidential interviews of project management and staff along with PIs and staff from collaborating public and private research partners, plus other relevant stakeholders. Interviews are confidential; results will be generalized such that it will not be possible to attribute comments to individuals. Our aim is to better understand how research activities are proceeding, how the various activities of HTMA are being implemented and how the research teams interact with each other and external groups and what factors might improve HTMA's ability to attain its objectives. I have several questions that will take about 45 minutes of your time. Do you have any questions before we begin? Questions: 1. Could you first describe the research that you are doing with the HTMA? 2. Could you share one or two of the most important research findings or products of your work? Prompt: How do you judge the quality of the various research activities being implemented under your project? 3. Public-private partnerships are integral to the success of the project. What do you see as the strengths and weaknesses of the projects partnerships? Prompt: What are key contributions from the different partners? Prompt: In what ways can these partnerships be improved? HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 76 Prompt: As researchers what particular challenges (e.g. legal, contractual, financial, etc.) have you encountered and how were they addressed? 4. What have been the key opportunities and challenges in using rapid cycle genomic selection? Prompt: How effective is using rapid cycle genomic selection in terms of time, quality and efficiency in accelerating the breeding cycle? Prompt: What challenges were encountered using this method and how were they overcome? 5. What progress is being made in the production of double haploid lines? How will public and private sector partners' benefit from these lines? Prompt: Has your organization produced DH lines for the project and if so how many? Prompt: How are the DH lines performing under heat stress? Prompt: Do partnering country collaborators need special skills for maintaining DH lines? 6. How many multi-parent synthetic populations have been developed by the project and how are they performing? Does the project plan to develop additional synthetics? Do you expect significant adoption by farmers? 7. Are there any significant changes to the project due either to significant challenges you have encountered or due to important findings or discoveries from the research? Prompt: Can you give me some examples? Prompt: Do you see possibilities for new directions in a new research program? Explain? Prompt: Have there been any missed opportunities? Can you give me some examples? 8. How successful has HTMA been in fostering partnerships with local organizations or agencies, universities, and other stakeholders? Prompt: What types of connections has HTMA established? What has HTMA done with partner organizations to advance the aims of the project? Prompt: Do you think the partnerships work well? Are there partnerships that seem to work better than others? Why? Prompt: Have there been important contributions from these stakeholders or partners to HTMA research? Could you give us some examples? Prompt: Are there important countries or partners that are being left out of the HTMA program? 9. In your opinion, how effective is the management of HTMA project by the leadership team? Prompt: What is your experience with the management staff in terms of: a. Professional/collegial interactions b. Fiscal interactions (promptness, clarity) c. Promptness and effectiveness of managing problems d. Quality of the solutions to problems e. Clarity of goals and objectives f. Degree to which planning is collaborative g. Degree to which data collection and analysis are supported HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 77 h. Degree to which findings are appropriately disseminated Prompt: How often do you communicate with HTMA? Do you feel like you are included in substantive dialogue about the program, findings, interventions and ideas? Prompt: What suggestions for improvement do you have for the management team? 10. In what ways does your research project or HTMA in general consider gender? Prompt: Can you give us any gender specific findings, outputs or outcomes from your work? Prompt: What about the participation of women in the project either as researchers or as participants/ local partners. How are women integrated in the various activities of this project? 11. We have talked about many different things. Are there any additional issues that you would like to raise which have not been discussed? c. Protocol for interviews of Project Stakeholders and other Partners Introduction: The purpose of this interview is to assess the perspectives of stakeholders and partners involved with or knowledgeable about the HTMA. We are conducting confidential interviews of project management and staff along with PIs and staff from collaborating public and private research partners, plus other relevant stakeholders. Our aim is to better understand how research activities are proceeding, how the various partners of the HTMA project interact with each other and external groups, and what factors might improve HTMA’s ability to attain its objectives. I have several questions that will take about 45 minutes of your time. Interviews are confidential; results will be generalized such that it will not be possible to attribute comments to individuals. Do you have any questions before we begin? Questions: 1. Could you first discuss how you have been involved with HTMA? Prompt: Who do you work with? What activities have you been involved in? 2. From your perspective, how is the project meeting its potential? What could it be doing differently that would improve its eventual impact? Prompt: Are the research themes addressed by HTMA scientists appropriate from your perspective? Prompt: Do you know about any key research findings from the project? Could you provide specific examples? Prompt: In what ways has this project had a positive impact in your country or for your organization? Are there any particular challenges or gaps? Prompt: What about other efforts, such as the dissemination of maize germplasm, information, knowledge or other outputs? Prompt: Are there topics or directions that are not being address that should be? HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 78 Prompt: Are there stakeholders that are not involved that should be? 3. The HTMA project includes people from multiple countries and institutions. How do you view the quality of communication and coordination among the collaborators? Prompt: To what extent does decision making include perspectives from multiple partners or collaborators? Prompt: How well does international collaboration work on this project? Do you feel like there is a team-based approach to the research? Why or why not? Prompt: How do you think that the collaborative interaction could be improved? 4. From your knowledge, in what ways does the HTMA provide training opportunities for researchers and others? Prompt: Does your organization participate in HTMA research or training? Please describe the modalities of this participation? Prompt: Are the proper people being trained in the proper area and at the proper level? Prompt: Are women adequately represented in the training program? Prompt: Is the HTMA properly prioritizing its training (short term workshops vs. long term graduate training)? Prompt: Have you seen any outcomes of the training – such as people from your organization who have been able to contribute to new research or activity? 5. What are the key lessons learned from on-farm testing and participatory varietal selection (PVS) trials by the project to date? Prompt: How have farmers benefitted such as increasing their opportunity to select and express their preferences for characteristics such as yield, standability, quality, etc. Prompt: How have researchers benefitted in understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the varieties and their adaptation to local conditions? 6. What promotional tools such as demonstration plots, PVS, field days, use of media, etc. have been most effective in the region? Prompt: What lessons have been learned regarding the size, number and location of demonstration plots? Prompt: To what degree has the use of field days and the media increased farmer exposure to the new heat stress tolerant varieties? Prompt: To what degree has the use of on farm testing, PVS, and field days increased farmer exposure to the new heat stress tolerant varieties? 7. How is the seed allocation policy working for project partners? How could this be improved? How is seed production progressing among the projects partners? Who is maintaining seed of parental lines? Who is producing foundation seed? Are appropriate quality control mechanisms in place? Prompt: What are the key HTMA OPVs and hybrids in production? Prompt: Are inbred lines being properly maintained? Prompt: Is sufficient foundation seed being produced? Prompt: How effective are the quality control mechanisms now in place? 8. What information has the project generated on seed production characteristics of their inbred lines? Prompt: What data is available for pollen production and duration of male lines? HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 79 Prompt: What information is available on seed yield, grade-out, and ear rot resistance of female lines? Prompt: Is sufficient flowering data available from multi-locations to determine the appropriate male and female split for hybrid seed production? 9. We have talked about many different things. Are there any additional issues that you would like to raise which have not been discussed? Methodology for Data Analysis Semi-structured interviews were conducted following traditional interview methods in which interviewers aim to engage the interviewee in a substantive conversation about their research and development activities. In-depth conversations guided by interview instruments provided the opportunity for an information flow that is not constrained by pre-determined response categories. The written interview questions were used as a structured guide for the interviewer to follow and to ensure all relevant questions are asked of all respondents and allow for comparison of responses. Interviews with key informants were captured in notes or directly into a laptop, which were expanded into more complete notes including summaries at the end of each day of interviewing. Summaries included specific insights or key findings from the interviews. With on-site visits, EET members met each evening to review notes, summarize key findings for the day, and identify key questions for further exploration. Data on field ratings taken by the EET were proofed and interpreted using basic descriptive statistics. Along with field note observations, these were used to estimate the quality and relevance to the projects objectives of the research trials and demonstration blocks. Following the completion of the on-site visits and interviews, the two members of the EET met to synthesize interview notes and field data observations. The EET also incorporated key findings from the desk review and formal presentations given by project staff and partner country PIs. The EET looked for both commonalities and differences in interview responses and other sources of information based on project position/role, country of origin, and whether the individual is working in the public or private sector. All information was considered in light of the evaluation questions established for the review, integrating key themes of project management (technical leadership, administration, and monitoring and evaluation) and research program (research depth, breadth and rigor, collaboration, outreach and technology dissemination, human and institutional capacity building, and gender inclusion). The EET then triangulated all the information to develop an overall project assessment, including accomplishments and shortcomings. Based on the evidence and considering project goals and objectives, the EET developed a set of recommendations to assist USAID and HTMA in the future. Methodological Limitations a. Interview participant selection bias Based on project documentation, consultation with the project leader, and availability of HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 80 project staff and partners, we developed a list of proposed individuals to interview. These include project management and scientific staff; PIs from NARS the private sector and US universities; key representatives from partner stakeholders, and graduate students. Overall, we believe our interview candidates well represent the major phases of the project. However, one limitation is the participation of project partners (PIs) from Bhutan and Pakistan who did not attend our meetings in India due to visa difficulties. We requested that they supply a Power Point country review presentation focusing on their involvement and progress with the HTMA project to date which was followed up with a phone interview. b. Interviewee recall bias KIIs focused largely on the interviewees’ opinions, actions and assessments of program activities as participants and collaborators since project inception in 2013. We did not expect problems with recall bias given that the project has only recently begun and is still in operation. The EET attempted to identify inconsistencies through comparison across interviews and by fact checking with program documentation. c. Interviewee response bias Open-ended interview questions are constructed to inquire about multiple perspectives on an issue, and similar questions are asked of numerous project participants, such that it should be possible to recognize issues of response bias. In analysis of responses to interview questions we examined responses of different stakeholders and different individuals from within stakeholder groups for convergence or disagreement. Through triangulation of assessments and understandings of different individuals we were able to come to a set of conclusions that identify areas of consensus and areas of disagreement. d. Interviewer bias Common sources of interviewer bias can include: - Facial expression or inflection of the interviewer can bias responses, encouraging or discouraging particular lines of conversation. - In international contexts, race and ethnicity of the interviewer can bias responses of interviewees such that they may be more open with individuals who are more like them. - Interviewer can also make the mistake of presenting leading questions or ‘putting words into people’s mouths’. - Prior association with a particular group or scientist can lead to biased interpretation of data. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 81 APPENDIX C: TRAVEL ITINERARY, LOCATIONS AND DATES OF FIELD VISITS The external evaluation team visited India and Nepal, two of the four major countries participating in the HTMA (Table 16). However, due to time and resource constraints the two EET members were limited to travel to India together and one member to Nepal. Time and resources did not permit travel to Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan. Interviews by phone or Skype were scheduled for project partner PIs from Bhutan and Pakistan. TABLE 16. TRAVEL ITINERARY OF THE EXTERNAL EVALUATION TEAM Dates Activities/Sites Travel Options Night stay 17-May Arrival of EE Team Hyderabad 18-May Project overview followed by individual presentations by project objective; visit HTMA trials at CIMMYT Hyderabad; conduct interviews with HTMA staff and partners. Hyderabad 19-May Visit University of Agricultural Sciences (UAS) at Raichar; attend seminar on UAS￾Raichar HTMA project accomplishments; Visit trials at Raichar. By road (180km/3hrs) Raichur 20-May Interview UAS-Raichar project PI and Co￾PI; Visit trials at B.Gudi including farmer discussion. By road (Raichur to B.Gudi-100km/2hrs and B.Gudi to Hyderabad￾120km/3hrs) Hyderabad 21-May Meet with managing director, research director, and corn breeder at Ajeet Seeds, Aurangabad; Visit trials at Aurangabad. Flight Aurangabad 22-May Travel day to Punjab (Amritsar) Flights Amritsar 23-May Meet with Pioneer staff and collaborating farmer at Jalandhar, Punjab. Visit HTMA managed trials by Pioneer; At Hoshiarpur, Punjab meet with staff and visit HTMA trials managed by Ajeet & Kaveri Seeds By road Amritsar 24-May HTMA representative country presentations for Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, & Bhutan; conduct interviews with PI from Bangladesh and Nepal; Wrap-up session - D. Beck; D.B. Gurung; B.M. Prasanna Flight Return to Delhi HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 82 APPENDIX D: LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED TABLE 17. LIST OF PERSONS CONTACTED BY THE EXTERNAL EVALUATION TEAM Role Organization Global Maize Director CIMMYT Project Leader & Senior scientist CIMMYT Maize breeder CIMMYT IRS Scientist CIMMYT Maize Stress Specialist CIMMYT Project Scientist CIMMYT Farm Manager CIMMYT Seed Production Officer CIMMYT Ph.D. Student AFU/NMRP/CIMMYT Ph.D. Student BAU/BARI/CIMMYT PI and Professor Purdue University South Asia Maize Director Pioneer Hi-bred International, Asia Pioneer Research Director for Crops, Asia Pioneer Hi-bred International , Asia Senior Maize Breeder Kaveri Seeds Private Limited, Vice-Chancellor UAS, Raichur, Director of Education UAS, Raichur Dean of Agriculture College, B.Gudi UAS, Raichur, B.Gudi Professor (Plant Breeding) UAS, Raichur Assistant Professor (Plant Breeding Biotechnology) UAS, Raichur Ph.D. Student UAS, Raichur MS Student UAS, Raichur MS Student UAS, Raichur Assistant Professor (Seed Science) UAS, Raichur Farmer Doranahalli, Yadgiri, B.Gudi Farmer Doranahalli, Yadgiri, B.Gudi Managing Director Ajeet Seed Company Pvt Ltd, Aurangabad Research Director Ajeet Seed Company Pvt Ltd, Aurangabad Maize Breeder Ajeet Seed Company Pvt Ltd, Aurangabad Research Scientist Pioneer Hi-bred International, Jullandhar Technician, Pioneer Pioneer Hi-bred International, Jullandhar Research Assistant Pioneer Hi-bred International, Jullandhar Farmer Kartarpur, Jullandhar Agriculture Officer Kaveri Seeds Pvt Ltd, Seena, Hosiyarpur Technician Kaveri Seeds Pvt Ltd, Seena, Hosiyarpur Farmer Kaveri Seeds Pvt Ltd, Seena, Hosiyarpur Agriculture Officer Ajeet Seeds Pvt Ltd, Jatpur, Hosiyarpur Farmer Ajeet Seeds Pvt Ltd, Jatpur, Hosiyarpur HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 83 Maize Coordinator & Co-PI NMRP, Nepal Senior Scientist (Agronomy) NMRP, Nepal Senior Scientist (Plant Pathology) NMRP, Nepal Senior Scientist (Agronomy) NMRP, Nepal Scientist (Entomology) NMRP, Nepal Scientist (Agronomy) NMRP, Nepal Scientist (Breeding) NMRP, Nepal Scientist (Plant Pathology) NMRP, Nepal Technician NMRP, Nepal Technician NMRP, Nepal Technician NMRP, Nepal Regional Director & Maize Breeder RARS, Nepalgunj, Nepal Technical officer RARS, Nepalgunj, Nepal Technical officer RARS, Nepalgunj, Nepal Technical Officer RARS, Nepalgunj, Nepal Technical officer RARS, Nepalgunj, Nepal Farmer Nichgad Municipality-5, Nepal Farmer Gadimai Municipality-15, Dumarwana, Nepal Farmer Bharatpur Municipality- Ananadapur, Nepal Farmer Gaindakot Municipality -8, Gaindakot, Nepal Principle Research Officer BARI, Bangladesh Maize Coordinator Renewable Natural Resources Research and Development Centre, Wengkhar, Bhutan Director, Maize and Millet Research Maize and Millet Research Institute, Pakistan HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 84 APPENDIX E: LIST OF MATERIALS REVIEWED HTMA Project Documents and References 1st year work-plan (1 October, 2012 – 30 September, 2013) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership 2nd year work-plan (1 October, 2013 – 30 September, 2014) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership 3rd year work-plan (1 October, 2014 – 30 September, 2015) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership 4th year work-plan (1 October, 2015 – 30 September, 2016) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership 1st Semi-annual report (1 October, 2012 – 31 March, 2013) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership 2nd Semi-annual report (1 April, 2013 – 30 September, 2013) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership 3rd Semi-annual report (1 October, 2013 – 31 March, 2014) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership 4th Semi-annual report (1 April, 2014 – 31 March, 2015) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership Semi-annual progress report for: Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public￾private sector partnership (HTMA) (1 October, 2012 – 31 March, 2013) Annual progress report (1 October, 2013 – 30 September 2014) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership Annual progress report (1 October, 2014 – 30 September 2015) Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership Project Planning Matrix: Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership Grant proposal: Heat stress resilient maize for South Asia through a public-private sector partnership, CIMMYT, September 10, 2012 Proceedings of annual review and planning meeting of the project “Heat Tolerant Maize for Asia (HTMA)”, 30-31 July, 2013, Kathmandu, Nepal Proceedings of the 2nd project steering committee (PSC) meeting of the “Heat Tolerant Maize for Asia (HTMA)” Project, 31 July, 2013, Kathmandu, Nepal External Evaluation of Heat Tolerant Maize for South East Asia Scope of Work, USAID 2016 Published/accepted for publication Akula Dinesh, Ayyanagouda Patil, P. H. Zaidi, P. H. Kuchanur, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam (2016). Line X tester analysis of tropical maize inbred lines under heat stress for grain yield and secondary traits. Maydica 61 (M5): 1-6. Akula Dinesh, Ayyanagouda Patil, P. H. Zaidi, P. H. Kuchanur, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam (2016). Genetic diversity, linkage disequilibrium and population structure in CIMMYT inbred lines, selected for heat tolerance study. Maydica (in press). HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 85 Akula Dinesh, Ayyanagouda Patil, P. H. Zaidi, P. H. Kuchanur, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam (2016). Genetic analysis of tropical maize (Zea Mays L.) inbred lines under heat stress. Bioscan Journal (in press). Akula Dinesh,Ayyanagouda Patil, P. H. Zaidi, P. H. Kuchanur, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam and Ameragouda (2016). Dissection of heat tolerance mechanism in tropical maize. Research on Crops (Accepted). Tesfaye, K., Zaidi, P.H, Gbegbelegbe, S., Boeber, C., Seetharam, K., Rahit, D., Erenstein, O. (2016). Ex-ante impact analysis and targeting of heat stress tolerant maize under climate change in South Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology (in press) Zaidi, P.H.; M. Zaman-Allah, S. Trachsel, K. Seetharam, J.E. Cairns and M.T. Vinayan (2016). Phenotyping for abiotic stress tolerance in maize – Heat stress. A field manual. CIMMYT: Hyderabad, India. Articles under preparation Alam, A. Seetharam, K. Vinayan, M.T. and Zaidi, P.H. (2016). Dissecting traits associated with heat tolerance in maize. Babu et al. (2017). Genome wide association analyses reveal genomic regions and metabolic pathways influencing heat tolerance in tropical maize Carraro, Nicola, Rajdeep Khangura, Ross Zhan, Mitch Tuinstra, and Guri Jopal (2016). Maize tolerance to heat stress is modulated by differential transcriptional response. Gibson, Ryan, Rajdeep Khangura, Mitch Tuinstra, and Guri Jopal (2017). Genetic architecture of the leaf lipidome in nested association mapping populations of maize. Gibson, Ryan, et.al. (2017). Galactolipid saturation and remodeling associated with field-based high temperature tolerance in maize. Krishna J., P.H. Kuchanur, P. H. Zaidi, Ayyangouda Patil, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam and B. Arunkumar (2017). Genetic analysis and association of stress tolerance traits in maize (Zea mays L.). Krishna J., P.H. Kuchanur, P.H. Zaidi, Ayyangouda Patil, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam (2017). Inheritance and association of secondary traits under heat stress tolerance in tropical maize (Zea mays L.). Krishna J., P.H. Kuchanur, P.H. Zaidi, Ayyangouda Patil, M.T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam (2017). Combining ability s and heterosis of heat stress tolerance traits in tropical maize (Zea mays L.). Krishna J., P.H. Kuchanur, P.H. Zaidi, Ayyangouda Patil, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam (2017). Association and path analysis for grain yield and its attributing traits under heat stress tolerance in tropical maize (Zea mays L.). Ranganatha, C.N., P.H. Kuchanur, P.H. Zaidi, Ayyangouda Patil, K. Seetharam and M.T. Vinayan (2017). Early generation testing and genomic selection in Maize (Zea mays L.) for heat stress tolerance. Ranganatha, C.N., P.H. Kuchanur, P.H. Zaidi, Ayyangouda Patil, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam and J.P. Nidugundi (2017).. Genetic variability and association of traits in tropical maize (Zea mays L.) under heat stress condition. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 86 Shrikant , Ayyanagouda Patil, P. H. Zaidi, P. H. Kuchanur, M. T. Vinayan, K. Seetharam (2017). Functional polymorphism for crtRB1 gene loci in tropical maize inbred lines. Tuinstra, M. et al. (2016). Maize leaf transcriptome re-modulation in response to heat stress. Vinayan, M.T. et al. (2017) Genotype x environment interactions under heat stress in maize and identification of donor lines. References Barnabas, B., K. Jager, and A. Feher (2008). The effect of drought and heat stress on reproductive processes in cereals. Plant, Cell and Environment 31: 11-38. Beck, D.L. (2004). Hybrid corn seed production in Corn: Origin, History, Technology, and Production, edited by C.W. Smith, J. Betran, and E.C.A. Runge. pp. 76 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Bernardo, R. and J. Yu (2007). Prospects for genome-wide selection for quantitative traits in maize. Crop Sci. 47: 1082-1090. Berni, J.A.J., P.J. Zarco-Tejada, L. Suarez, and E. Fereres (2009). Thermal and narrowband multispectral remote sensing for vegetation monitoring from an unmanned aerial vehicle. IEEE . Geosci. Remote 47: 722-738 Betran, F.J., D. Beck, M. Banziger, and G. Edmeades (2003). Genetic analysis of inbreed and hybrid grain yield under stress and non-stress environments in tropical maize. Crop Sci. 43: 807-817 Cairns, J.E., J. Crossa, P.H. Zaidi, P. Grudloyma, C. Sanchez, J.L. Araus, S. Thaitad, D. Makumbi, C. Magorokosho, M. Bänziger, A. Menkir, S. Hearne and G.N. Atlin (2013). Identification of drought, heat, and combined drought and heat tolerant donors in maize. Crop Science Vol. 53(4): 1335-1346. Cairns, J.E., K. Sonder, P.H. Zaidi, N. Verhulst, G. Mahuku, R. Babu, S.K. Nair, B. Das, B. Govaerts, M.T. Vinayan, Z. Rashid, J.J. Noor, P. Devi, F. San Vicente, and B.M. Prasanna (2012). Maize production in a changing climate: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation strategies. Advances in Agronomy, Volume 114, Chapter 1: 1 – 58. Chen, J. W. Xu, J. Velten, Z. Xin and J. Stout (2012). Characterization of maize inbred lines for drought and heat tolerance Journal of Soil and Water Conservation September/October Vol. 67(5): 354-364. Cobb, J.N., G. DeClerck, A. Greenberg et al. (2013). Next-generation phenotyping: requirements and strategies for enhancing our understanding of genotype￾phenotype relationships and its relevance to crop improvement. Theor Appl Genet 126: 867-887. Collins, J. (2008). Good to Great: Why some companies make the leap and others don’t. Harper Collins Publishers, New York, NY. FAOSTAT (2011). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome Italy FAO Statistical Database, Available from: http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/default.aspx#ancor. Furbank, R.T., and M. Tester (2011). Phenomics – technologies to relieve the phenotyping bottleneck. Trends in Plant Science Vol. 16, No. 12: 1360-1385. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 87 Prasanna, B.M. (2011). Maize in Asia – trends, challenges and opportunities. P.H. Zaidi et al. (eds.) Addressing climate change effects and meeting maize demand for Asia - Book of extended summaries of the 11th Asian Maize Conference. Nanning, China, 7-11 November 2011, CIMMYT: Mexico, D.F., pp. 3-6. Shaw, R.H. (1983). Estimates of yield reductions in corn caused by water and temperature stress. In Crop Relations to Water and Temperature Stress in Humid Temperate Climates, eds. C.D. Ruper Jr., P.J. Kramer, 49-66. Westview Press, Boulder, CO. Stebbins, C. (2011) Crop scientists now fret about heat not just water. Scientific American. Retrieved from http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=crop￾scientists-now-fret-about. Strategic study of biotechnology research in CGIAR. 2014. Sung, D.Y. (2013) Acquired tolerance to temperature extremes. Trends Plant Sci. 8: 179-187. White, J.W., P. Andrade-Sanchez, M.A. Gore, K.F. Bronson et al. (2012). Field based phenomics for plant genetics research. Field Crops Research 133: 101-112. Yun, X., L. Yanli Lu, C. Xie, S. Gao, J. Wan, B.M. Prasanna (2012). Whole genome strategies for molecular marker-assisted plant breeding. Mol. Breeding 29: 833- 854. Zaidi, P.H. and J. Cairns (2011). Enhancing climate-resilience in tropical maize (Zea mays L.). In: P.H. Zaidi et al. (eds.) Addressing climate change effects and meeting maize demand for Asia – book of extended summaries of the 11th Asian Maize Conference. Nanning, China, 7-11 November 2011, CIMMYT, Mexico, D.F., pp. 13-16. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 88 APPENDIX F: PHOTOGRAPHS FIGURE 10. PARTICIPANTS IN HTMA TRAINING COURSES HELD IN INDIA Photos courtesy of P.H. Zaidi, CIMMYT. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 89 FIGURE 11. COMPARISON AT HARVEST OF NEW HTMA HEAT-TOLERANT HYBRID Harvest of spring 2016 trial at Hyderabad, India, showing a new HTMA heat tolerant hybrid (CAH-151) and one of the popular commercial hybrids (P30Y45) for the spring market. Photo courtesy of P.H. Zaidi, CIMMYT. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 90 FIGURE 12. COMPARISON OF LEAVES AND TASSELS OF HEAT-TOLERANT MAIZE LINE A heat stress susceptible inbred line with severe leaf firing & tassel blast (left) and a tolerant line (right) under heat stress during Spring 2014 at Hyderabad, India. Photo courtesy of P.H. Zaidi, CIMMYT. . HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 91 FIGURE 13. H. TURCICUM LEAF BLIGHT Turcicum leaf blight observed on a susceptible hybrid in the field of Mr. Tilak Prasad Kandel at Gaindakot, Nawalparasi, Nepal in 2016. Photo courtesy of D.B. Gurung. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 92 FIGURE 14. TASSEL STERILITY Tassel sterility observed in a heat stress susceptible hybrid at UAS-Raichur research station located in B.Gudi, India in 2016. Photo courtesy of D.B. Gurung. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 93 Project Implementation Team Response to External Evaluation Report Response of the Project Implementation Team on the Report of External Evaluation Team on the “Heat tolerant maize for Asia (HTMA)” Project Introduction The two-member external evaluation team (EET) of the project USAID-funded Project on Heat tolerant maize for Asia (HTMA) visited South Asia during May 16-24, 2016, to evaluate the progress and activities of the on-going project. They visited the project lead center (CIMMYT-Hyderabad, India) and some of the project partner locations, interviewed the staff implementing/managing the project, post-graduate students working under HTMA, project partners, as well as groups of farmers at various project sites. They have also reviewed the project documents, including approved project proposal, annual work plans, semi￾annual and annual reports submitted to USAID. The EET has critically reviewed various aspects of the project, including project objectives, milestones, research approach, project execution on the ground, major achievements of the project so far, public-private partnerships (PPP) under the project and the overall progress made till the 4 th year of the project. Based on this, the EET formulated a comprehensive evaluation report, which was forwarded by the USAID for responses by the HTMA Project implementation and management team. The HTMA management team has gone through the final evaluation report, and would like to express sincere appreciation of efforts put in by EET for this comprehensive report. All the key aspects of the project have been critically reviewed and well-captured in the report. The report also clearly highlighted the successes and major achievements of the project so far. Through this response, the HTMA team would like formally acknowledge the following factors that enabled the remarkable success of the project: 1. Strong confidence and trust of the NARS (National Agricultural Research Systems) and seed company partners from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Bhutan and Pakistan in HTMA project partnership; 2. Constructive and solid engagement of the USAID Feed-the-Future management in project execution 3. Excellent collaboration of the HTMA project partner from the US, the Purdue University 4. A dynamic and diverse PPP for effective deployment of the heat resilient hybrids in South Asia. As highlighted by the EET, we recognize some key technical factors that contributed to the success of the project: 1. Proper selection and definition of target population environments (TPE) for the HTMA work; 2. Well-defined and documented field phenotyping protocol for heat stress, and its effective execution; 3. Emphasis on quality and consistent precision phenotyping across the network of phenotyping sites; 4. Strategic use of genomics-enabled tools, including GWAS, GS and DH technology 5. The germplasm strength of CIMMYT that led to exciting products, including heat resilient inbred lines and hybrids, besides technical trainings, offered to both public and private sector partners. The EET made some key recommendations on various project objectives as well as on project management for further strengthening the project. These were much appreciated by the HTMA team, and the responses to these recommendations/suggestions are as below: HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 94 Objective-wise recommendations by EET & responses of the HTMA team Objective 1: Dissect the expression of heat stress tolerance to identify component traits, genes, and genetic loci that predict or confer adaptation to stressful environments in South Asia.  As quick as is practically possible, we recommend that the various on-going studies should be completed, particularly those focusing on identifying candidate genes, and published in refereed journals. HTMA team: Agreed. By mid of year-5 at least one research article will be submitted for publication in a high-quality refereed journal.  We recommend that the project consider further sampling the 300+ ex-Plant Varietal Protection (PVP) lines that the Project PI currently has in the Purdue nursery (only 23 have been used to date in the project) as sources of earliness, yield potential, and heat and drought tolerance. HTMA team: Agreed. A total 97 temperate lines were test-crossed with tropical testers, evaluated across temperature regimes, and 23 lines were identified for further use in the project. Additional ex￾PVP temperate lines will be imported for use in the project. Objective 2: Identify and validate favorable genes/haplotypes controlling adaptation of maize to heat stress in the tropical environments of South Asia.  It is critical that the project scientists pull together the results of studies to clearly validate and confirm the most significant candidate genes for heat tolerance. In this context we commend the project team for recently developing a catalog in Excel format with genotypic and phenotypic information as it relates to heat tolerance of CIMMYT and project partner germplasm, and recommend that it be kept up to date with ongoing work. HTMA team: Agreed. The database of the heat stress genotypic and phenotypic data is being regularly updated after every crop season and published periodically through the CIMMYT’s public database platform – Dataverse.  A new Java tool to aid genomic selection has been developed and should prove useful. These data tools need to be made available to project partners as quickly as possible. HTMA team: The Java-based tool was demonstrated by CIMMYT in the last training course on genomic selection, and the partners were encouraged to use it in their genomic selection approach based breeding program.  We recommend investigating the IBP (International Breeding Platform) Breeding Management System developed by the Generation Challenge Program which has many useful functions that may benefit the HTMA project. HTMA team: The HTMA team is keeping track on the progress on BMS, which has not kept pace with the requirements of the CIMMYT maize and wheat breeding programs, which are quite large in operations. CIMMYT management is reviewing the options to explore other possible breeding management systems that suit the requirements. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 95  We recommend several sources of additional germplasm. HTMA team: The Project team will keep exploring all possible sources for further widening the germplasm base of the project, as long as the germplasm exchange has no proprietary issues and can effectively contribute to the development of international public goods. Objective 3: Implement rapid-cycle genomic selection (RCGS) for generating open-source multi-parental synthetic populations and for further deriving doubled haploid (DH) lines with resilience to heat stress.  This is the only objective where the HTMA has fallen short of the declared milestones. Only six synthetics formed plus most delayed in their development. The synthetics serve a dual purpose as both a source of genetic variability for the development of inbred lines (whether conventional or DH) and per se as open-pollinated varieties (OPVs). The project needs to determine what priority it will give to the formation, improvement, and testing of synthetics as OPVs. The results from our interviews show that demand for OPVs varies depending on the project partner and country. We recommend that yield trial evaluations be conducted to compare project synthetics and hybrids under a range of conditions from high heat stress to optimal conditions. HTMA team: Originally four multi-parent populations (MPS), two each in early and medium maturity in heterotic group A & B, were planned to be constituted in the project for source population improvement and derivation of improved heat tolerant lines for rapid cycle genomic selection. However, a total of six populations were constituted using lines with different heat tolerance traits identified after extensive evaluation of HTAM panel, including two populations in early maturity group, and four in medium maturity, two each for high Tmax - low VPD and high Tmax – high VPD combinations. Out of the six populations, two were advanced to C3, including one cycle of phenotypic and two cycles of marker-only selections using genetically estimated breeding values (GEBVs), and submitted for DH induction in June-2016. Other 4 populations were advanced to C1 on the basis of phenotypic selection, marker effects were estimated, and being used for next two generations of marker-only selections for advancing to C3 by year-5 of the project followed by submission for DH￾induction. With regard to the possibility of using the MPS as OPVs, we have received such a demand from public sector partners from Nepal and Bhutan. We are multiplying seed of all MPS for sharing with public sector partners from Nepal and Bhutan for evaluation in spring 2017.  The project needs to validate the effectiveness of RCGS for population (synthetic) improvement. HTMA team: All three cycles, including one phenotypically selected (C1) and two marker-only selected (C2 & C3), are submitted for DH induction. The effectiveness of RCGS will be estimated by head-to￾head comparison of the performance of DH lines from all three cycles. Selected superior DH lines based on phenotypic data could be potentially used for constituting improved populations/synthetics.  We fully support the current proposal presented to the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) to develop a DH facility in India to serve the Asian region. HTMA team: Thanks! ICAR has already cleared the DH proposal and this was submitted to the Department of Biotechnology (DBT), Government of India, more than two years ago! CIMMYT is pursuing hard to get this over-due proposal funded, as there is a strong demand from the NARS as well HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 96 as SME seed companies in Asia with maize breeding programs for the DH development service through CIMMYT. Objective 4: Initiate deployment of heat stress resilient elite maize hybrids in the target agro-ecologies of South Asia through a regional alliance of public and private sector partners  The testing system for HTMA hybrids allows flexibility from Stage-III onwards. For this we recommend that number of entries particularly for Stage–III and MLT should be same for two seasons/two years. Number of entries of the trials and testing locations should also be same to have data for two years. HTMA team: After one year of extensive across-locations (25-30 sites) testing in replicated trials in 3- 4 rows plot size, the most promising hybrids are selected within each TPE and taken forward for large scale MLT evaluation (40-50 sites) across temperature & VPD regimes in bigger plot size (8-10 rows/plot). As the project mostly focuses on developing and developing single-cross hybrids (through evaluation in a large number of diverse locations), we found it effective to advance promising hybrids after one year of extensive testing, and helped in fast-tracking the product as well, without any major issues in next stage testing.  Large plot demonstrations of hybrids in many locations have significantly contributed to farmer interest and willingness to adopt hybrid technology. Therefore, emphasis should be given on demonstrating hybrids in large plots at many locations as possible. Multiple field days should be organized regularly in every season and year by responsible NARS research programs and their collaborating partners. HTMA team: Agreed. The on-farm demonstrations have been very useful in getting the attention of local farmers, and new partnership in the project. This activity will be further scaled-up, to the extent of resources available in the project, possibly in the next phase.  In discussions with maize scientists and technicians from SME, we learned that their seed companies do not own sufficient land to conduct all sets of experimental trials provided by the project. In this situation, the seed companies either have to rent land to conduct these trials or need to conduct in farmer's fields’ which is not very practical for Stage-I to III trial sets. The HTMA partners from Nepal expressed their views that it is not practical for them to evaluate large trials common in Stages I, II, and III because of large entry numbers and the fact that they do not own land for testing. However, these companies can handle stage-III and MLTs. If testing of all stage of trial is mandatory even to the seed companies, we recommend that the project should either reduce its number of trial sets (from Stage-I or II trials) or reduce number of entries. HTMA team: We appreciate the concern. In the HTMA research collaboration agreements each partner agreed to provide in-kind contribution to the project, i.e., 1.0 ha of dedicated field for phenotyping, and scientific & technical staff for conducting the trials. It is always ensured that total trials for each partner never exceed the agreed limit.  We strongly recommend that an unpublished study on “Combining ability, heterosis and G x E interaction in tropical maize under heat stress and optimal environments,” completed in 2011, be written up and published, and also that more comprehensive and focused follow-up studies be conducted ideally lead by a Ph.D. student. We suggest that all four issues listed above be addressed but that priority be given to gene action and dosage effects. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 97 HTMA team: Agreed. One Ph. D. student will be assigned for the follow-up study on the findings of 2011 project done by a Ph.D. student in another project (CSISA), especially to work on gene action and dosage effects in heat tolerance in tropical maize. Objective 5: Strengthen the capacity of alliance partners, including South Asian maize breeding programs and local seed companies  We strongly recommend that the short-term training courses be continued so that additional researchers/technical staff can benefit. Training is particularly needed for seed production (especially inbred line maintenance procedures), and for public sector partners in post-harvest technology, product promotion, and marketing. There is also high demand for training in molecular breeding. HTMA team: Agreed. Training/workshops on the above-mentioned aspects by the EET will be considered for possible implementation in the next phase of the project.  The participation of women in both short and long term training is low and needs to be addressed. HTMA team: Agreed. In each case, including project staffing, training courses, studentship & participation in on-farm demonstration, best efforts were made to increase the participation of women participants. Participation of women participants was satisfactory in case of on-farm demonstrations, and also in in-country training courses, especially in Nepal & Bangladesh. However, in other cases, despite the best efforts by CIMMYT as well as project partners, women participation was relatively low; this is basically because of the reason that the the ratio of women in agricultural research is relatively low in South Asia. Further efforts will have to be made by all the partner institutions to increase the participation of women in the project.  Consider developing a HTMA hybrid maize seed production system network where seed companies and other producers can obtain technical backstopping, training, and other support. Additional staff time may be needed to support technical assistance on seed systems. HTMA team: Valid suggestion! Besides HTMA, the International Maize Improvement Consortium (IMIC) Phase-II is another excellent platform for strengthening the capacity of SME seed companies in the region, and for providing the required technical backstopping on hybrid maize seed production.  The project should provide additional UC-Davis model weather stations to Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Pakistan in order to generate quality and consistent data among the project’s partners. HTMA team: Agreed. Provision will be made in next phase for providing essential field equipment support, including UC-Davis weather stations. Recommendations by EET on project management & response of the HTMA-team:  We do not recommend changes in the project management structure, which is functioning very well, except that the growth of private sector partners from 3 to 14 may require increasing the number of senior private sector representatives on the PSC from 1 to 3 (EQ 4a). HTMA team: Agreed. Will present this suggestion to PSC for implementation. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 98  Project management has leveraged funds from several sources to help finance the extra deployment work but we recommend that consideration be given to increasing staff and resource allocations. Our first priority for staffing increases would be to provide the project leader, who bears a heavy responsibility for the project in addition to his other duties, with a scientist assistant. (EQ 5a). HTMA team: This suggestion will be considered by the CIMMYT management, as staff increases are subject to availability of funding available for the project.  Project management needs to strengthen coordination with and participation among partners particularly the smaller project country NARS outside of India. We recommend that the project management give this high priority and implement more joint monitoring of on-going activities in these regions, exchange visits of researchers and technical staff, and provide further training opportunities for partners in the smaller project countries. Allocating a scientist/assistant to work with the project leader would also allow this team to increase communication and visits to these countries. (EQs 5b, 6c). HTMA team: This activity is subject to availability of required resources, and will be considered in the next phase of the project.  Despite the stated intentions of many, the participation of women at all levels of the project (including management, scientists, graduate students, and participants in training programs) is low. The gender imbalance remains and needs to be addressed immediately. (EQ 6c) HTMA team: Agreed. This point has been already addressed above.  Based on partners with differing cultures and mandates (both because of country/region and/or public/private sector) the project has the ongoing challenge to build further trust and understanding among its diverse collaborators. We recommend that project leaders need to continually look for complementarities and ways to further strengthen communication and relationships among public￾private sector scientists/leaders. Unity is very hard to build but easy to rupture. It is also important that all partners bring something significant to the table to contribute to the project. We also encourage partners to have a greater willingness to share information and technology, particularly the private sector in the area of seed production research and product deployment. (EQ 6b). HTMA team: Agreed. Despite the challenges, HTMA has been quite successful in implementing the PPP model in the ongoing phase. We will certainly explore ways and means to further strengthen this aspect of the project in the possible next phase.  Interaction between BFS and the HTMA can be maintained by continuing regular attendance at the annual meeting, site visits, maintaining close communication and looking together for ways and resources to better achieve project objectives. (EQ 7a) HTMA team: It must be recognized that the BFS team, including the USAID Program Officer of the Project (Nora Lapitan earlier and Hailu Wordofa now) have never missed the annual meetings of the project, and have consistently provided excellent inputs for further improvement of the project through effective online/F2F communications. We are also particularly grateful for USAID management which has highlighted the HTMA project as one of the success stories. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 99  Future external reviews could be improved by the following suggestions (EQ 8c): - Schedule the evaluation earlier in the project phase - Consider having 3 rather than only 2 external evaluation team members - Provide review team more time to visit additional project countries - Allow at least one reviewer the opportunity to attend the project annual meeting HTMA team: These suggestions may be considered by the USAID. HEAT TOLERANT MAIZE FOR ASIA (HTMA) FINAL EVALUATION REPORT 100